Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and then impact LPG prices; the overseas LPG market remains supported in the near - term. The domestic LPG market shows an over - valued situation between domestic and foreign markets but a low basis. The feedback of poor PDH profits may occur, and the decline in the premium indicates a bearish driver. Future attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Price Changes - This week, the domestic LPG market fluctuated. It rose on Wednesday due to the high - opening of CP and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 month - spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 month - spread was -184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+3) [1]. - Domestic civil LPG prices were differentiated. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4250 (-20); in East China, it was 4376 (-8), and in South China, it was 4590 (+80) [1]. - The overseas market rose. The official January CP prices opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively [1]. Price Spread and Premium Changes - The PG - FEI spread reached 85 (+25). The East China propane arrival premium was 66 (-18). The January FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively [1]. - Freight rates declined. The FEI - MOPI spread was -15 (a month - on - month decrease of 5.5) [1].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a significant recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending 2025 with an "11 consecutive days of gains" and major indices closing positively for 2026 [1][3] - The Every Day Brand 100 Index maintained an upward trend in 2025, achieving an annual increase of 15.21% and closing at 1145.49 points [1][2] - Factors such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" industrial guidance, overseas liquidity easing, and domestic policy support are expected to continue providing support for the A-share market in 2026 [1][3] Group 2 - In the last week of December 2025, the A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Index rising by 0.13% while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% [2] - Baidu Group-SW and Jiangxi Copper saw weekly gains exceeding 10%, with Jiangxi Copper's price increasing over 30% in two weeks [2] - Tencent Holdings and China Petroleum saw market capitalization growth exceeding 100 billion yuan, reaching 176.12 billion yuan and 102.49 billion yuan respectively [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December 2025 was expected, but internal divisions within the FOMC may slow down future rate cuts in Q1 2026 [3] - Domestic economic indicators showed resilience in exports, while consumer and investment metrics remained weak; however, the manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory [3] - A-shares trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan in late December 2025, with margin financing balances reaching a historical high, indicating improved market sentiment [3] Group 4 - Baidu Group's stock performance was notable, with a single-day increase of 9.35% on January 2, 2026, and a weekly increase of 20.33% [4] - Baidu's Kunlun Chip, focused on AI chip development, is set to apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which could enhance Baidu's asset value if successful [5] - The Kunlun Chip is expected to support large-scale AI model training and is a core component of Baidu's AI infrastructure [4][5] Group 5 - Baidu's AI cloud revenue and smart driving business are experiencing strong growth, with AI cloud revenue reaching 6.1% market share in China [6] - In Q3 2025, Baidu's AI cloud revenue was 6.2 billion yuan, a 21% year-on-year increase, with AI infrastructure revenue growing by 33% [6] - Baidu's capital expenditure reached 10.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating ongoing investment in network infrastructure and cloud computing [6] Group 6 - Baidu's comprehensive technology system in autonomous driving has matured, leading to positive profitability per vehicle and significant order growth for its Robotaxi service [7] - The company is expanding its presence in high-value overseas markets, with a 200% year-on-year increase in orders [7] - Analysts are optimistic about Baidu's strategy in the next-generation "mobile living space" due to its advantages in cost and infrastructure compared to overseas competitors [7]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the "spring market excitement" has begun early, characterized by a clear "structural lead and opportunity rotation" feature, with technology remaining dominant [2][3][16] - The current market adjustment was primarily driven by three factors: overseas liquidity disturbances, concerns over AI bubble risks during the US earnings window, and relatively mild economic data, all of which are now diminishing [14][15][16] - The A-share market is entering a pre-heating and layout window for the "spring market excitement" of 2026, with structural opportunities emerging in sectors such as commercial aerospace, robotics, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals [3][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the rise in non-ferrous metals is driven by multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry fundamentals, capital allocation, and geopolitical issues, rather than a single cause [4][29] - The report notes that the current Chinese consumer market shows a clear characteristic of "total pressure but structural recovery," with structural highlights in both traditional and emerging consumption sectors [5][31][32] - The investment strategy suggests a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, emphasizing the importance of PPI improvements and the benefits of "anti-involution" policies in sectors like non-ferrous metals, photovoltaics, chemicals, steel, and machinery [6][34][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - term, it is likely that the valuation of asphalt will decline in the second half of the year. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will limit the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak shock of crude oil at the cost end will also limit the upward space of asphalt's single - side price [15]. - In the short - term, considering that most of the crude oil is in maritime inventory and mostly distributed in the Asia - Pacific region, the upward range of oil prices due to geopolitical situations is limited, but the valuations of heavy oil and asphalt will significantly benefit. It is recommended to go long on the asphalt cracking spread during the period when the maritime inventory cannot be fully released [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price trend of the asphalt main contract from January 2025 to December 2025 is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. There are situations of supply - demand increase, cost decrease, etc. [13][14]. - **Medium - term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and major refineries are expected to resume a certain level of operation, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membranes has improved, but overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure peak season. In terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the wide - range shock center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly [15]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: Supply is neutral - bearish as the start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is rising and overall imports remain strong. Demand is bearish as the start - up rates of all demand segments are weak and downstream shipments are flat. Inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced in) as there is a problem of weak de - stocking and domestic total inventory exceeds expectations. The cost of crude oil is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and is in a weak shock process. The previous month's view was to wait and see, while this month's view is to go long on the asphalt cracking spread [16]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [19][21][23]. - **Basis Trend**: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2021 to 2025 [31]. - **Term Structure**: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts such as 03 - 05, 04 - 05, and 03 - 06 [34][35]. 3. Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt from 2021 to 2025, as well as the relationship between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [41][44][46]. - **Imports**: It includes the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, the import profit from different regions, and the cumulative import volume from countries such as South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia [51][54]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It shows the ratio trends of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent from 2021 to 2025 [57]. - **Refinery Profit**: It presents the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit of petroleum coke [60][63]. 4. Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It shows the trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [68]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract from 2021 to 2025 [71]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: It shows the relationships between inventory and profit, and between profit and price [74]. 5. Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises from 2023 to 2025 [78][80][84]. - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: It shows the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2021 to 2025 [89][92]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly value of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [94][97][104]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It shows the monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment [105][109]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management industries, as well as the cumulative value of local government special bond issuance [112][113]. 6. Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures from 2021 to 2025 [123][121]. 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It includes exploration and extraction links [127][128]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From the production process perspective, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction. By use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [131].

Core Viewpoint - Sinopec's South China Company has raised the listing price of xylene by 100-150 yuan/ton to 5800 yuan/ton, indicating a tight supply and strong demand in the spot market, which is favorable for spot prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustment - The new listing prices for xylene are as follows: Guangzhou Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Zhongke Refining all execute at 5800 yuan/ton [1][4]. - The price increase reflects a broader trend of tightening supply in the market, which is expected to support higher prices [2][5]. Group 2: Market Implications - The price adjustment is likely to boost bullish sentiment in the futures market, particularly for PX futures, which have a settlement price of 7190 yuan/ton for contract 2609 [2][5]. - The increase in xylene prices may lead to a positive outlook for related commodities, as the market responds to the supply-demand dynamics [2][5]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism used by the business community is based on big data and a pricing model, which generates a benchmark price for transactions [2][5]. - The pricing formula includes an adjustment coefficient (K) and a premium/discount (C) that accounts for logistics costs, brand price differences, and regional price differences [3][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The current valuation is high, at the upper end of the range, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities starting next week [2][77]. - In the short - term, the market valuation is high. Due to factors such as styrene's export increase in January, Bohua device maintenance, and the re - mention of anti - involution, the prices of pure benzene and styrene rebounded rapidly. Currently, pure benzene is at the upper end of the range, and styrene's valuation is significantly high, with a risk - free arbitrage window open. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities [2][77]. - In the medium - term, PX - BZ should take short - term profit, the overseas oil - blending drive is weakening, and the domestic chemical fundamentals maintain high inventory pressure [2][77]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Pure benzene domestic production: In December, 110,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, the maintenance volume remained at 110,000 tons (assuming a 45,000 - ton reduction due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance). Some Shandong local refineries will increase their loads after solving quota problems. In January, attention should be paid to the incremental pure benzene production from the new Basf Zhanjiang project [2][75]. - Pure benzene imports: The external market pressure remains high. South Korea's pure benzene selling pressure was high from November to December, and imports remain high. In January, there are significant differences in import expectations, with an expected high import volume of about 450,000 tons, and the imports after February are to be evaluated [2][75]. - Styrene: In December, 85,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, 65,000 tons were under maintenance. After December, the device operation gradually recovered. Attention should be paid to the incremental production from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's device [2][75]. Demand - Caprolactam: CPL negative feedback has begun, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. In December, 40,000 tons of maintenance are expected, and in January, 60,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project in December and the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei in January. Also, pay attention to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the devices [2][75]. - Phenol: The operation is gradually picking up. In December, 30,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, 10,000 tons. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new device may be postponed [2][75]. - Aniline: In December, 70,000 tons were under maintenance, with a maintenance loss of 77,000 tons. Some devices extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January may be lower than expected [2][76]. - Styrene downstream 3S hard plastics: Terminal home appliances are gradually entering the year - end procurement season, and demand has slightly recovered. However, 3S still faces high - inventory problems [2][76]. Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on a crude oil price of $60 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [2][77]. - EB processing fee: The profit will expand in the short - term [2][77]. Strategy - Single - side: Pay attention to shorting opportunities for BZ [2][77]. - Inter - period: None for now [77]. - Cross - variety: Take short - term profit for PX - BZ [2][77].

石油石化 2026 年 1 月 4 日 石油石化周报 油价短期或有支撑，关注美委局势升级和 OPEC+增产态度 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24-01 24-03 24-05 24-07 24-09 24-11 25-01 25-03 25-05 25-07 25-09 25-11 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：美委地缘局势升级，叠加市场预期 OPEC+将维持暂停增 产立场，或对油价形成一定支撑。据 ifind 数据，2025 年 12 月 26 日 -2026 年 1 月 2 日，WTI 原油期货收盘价上涨 0.62%，布伦特油期货 价保持不变。地缘政治方面 ...

Core Insights - The Qingdao Energy Group and Sinopec are collaborating on the Qingdao Petrochemical Waste Heat Utilization Project, set to commence operations on December 31, 2025, focusing on resource recovery and low-carbon heating solutions [1][2] Group 1: Project Overview - The project aims to convert industrial waste heat into a clean energy source, utilizing a dual-stage waste heat recovery system to meet urban heating demands [1] - Total investment in the project exceeds 100 million yuan, with an annual heating capacity of over 600,000 GJ, capable of supporting heating for 2 million square meters of buildings [1] - The project is expected to reduce natural gas consumption by 16.5 million cubic meters annually and cut carbon dioxide emissions by 23,700 tons [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The construction process prioritizes ecological safety and efficiency, employing advanced techniques such as mud balance pipe jacking and PLC methods to minimize environmental disruption [2] - The project introduces a cross-sector integration model of "industrial waste heat + urban heating," providing new solutions for the dual challenges of clean energy transition and industrial waste heat waste [2] - The innovative tiered utilization technology is applicable to other high-energy-consuming industries, promoting the large-scale application of industrial waste heat resource utilization [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The Qingdao Energy Group plans to leverage the project as a catalyst for ongoing technological and model innovations, aiming to enhance the efficient allocation of waste heat resources across regions and industries [3] - The company is committed to supporting national carbon neutrality goals and contributing to high-quality energy development in China through more green and low-carbon projects [3]

摘要：【图】2025年1-8月甘肃省乙烯产量数据分析 2025年1-8月乙烯产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前8个月，甘肃省规模以上工业企业乙烯产量累计达到了48.6万吨，与 2024年同期的数据相比，下降了1.7%，增速较2024年同期低38.7个百分点，增速较同期全国低12.3个百 分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业乙烯产量2440.69388万吨的比重为2.0%。 图表：甘肃省乙烯产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年8月乙烯产量分析： 单独看2025年8月份，甘肃省规模以上工业企业乙烯产量达到了6.4万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，8 月份的产量增长了0.6%，增速较2024年同期低38.0个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国低9.8个百分 点，约占同期全国规模以上企业乙烯产量314.08156万吨的比重为2.0%。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油行业现状与发展趋势 化工市场现状及前景分析 日化市场调研与发展前景润滑油发展现状及前景预测汽油市场调研及发展趋势 柴油行业监测及发展趋势橡胶未来发展趋势预测 塑料现状及发展前景 化妆品发展前景趋势分析清洁护肤的现状和发展趋势 图表：甘 ...

Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (calorific value 5000-5500 kcal) is 777 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% [1] - The price of No. 2 smokeless lump coal is 1160 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.4% [1] - Diesel (0) is priced at 6944 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.1% [1] - Gasoline (92) is priced at 8228 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% [1] - Rebar (Φ16-25mm) is priced at 3361 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.7% [1] - High-speed wire rod (Φ6.5mm) is priced at 3558 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% [1]