Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is committed to advancing the research and registration of sunflower seed oil futures, while also promoting the development of futures for steel billets, cement, and chicken, and exploring the introduction of more short-term options [1] Group 1 - The ZCE plans to enhance its derivative tools by leveraging its strengths in energy and salt chemical sectors, focusing on the entire industrial chain to meet the needs of the real economy [1] - The exchange will implement tailored strategies for individual products and enterprises to optimize existing contracts and business rules, thereby increasing participation from industrial clients [1] - Initiatives such as "insurance + futures" and "sugar industry worry-free" projects will be advanced, along with improvements to the "commercial storage worry-free" business model [1] Group 2 - The ZCE aims to deepen the development of international products, including the implementation of bonded delivery for PTA, and plans to expand the range of tradable products under QFI [1] - The exchange seeks to achieve overall openness of the polyester futures sector and explore new cross-border cooperation opportunities, steadily promoting collaboration with overseas futures exchanges [1]

郑商所理事长熊军在致辞中表示，郑商所将持续丰富品种工具供给，夯实服务根基。紧扣国家战略和实 体发展需要，稳步推进葵花籽油期货研发注册，有序推动钢坯、水泥、鸡肉等品种研发，探索推广更多 短期期权。结合自身在能化、盐化等领域的品种禀赋，围绕已有优势产业链上下游、左右端扩展，持续 丰富衍生品工具类型。深化储备品种研究，持续推进符合实体经济需求的衍生品研发。 期货日报网讯(记者谭亚敏)8月20日，由郑州商品交易所(下简称郑商所)、芝加哥商业交易所集团主办， 期货日报承办的2025中国(郑州)国际期货论坛在郑州召开。 郑商所将持续提升市场运行与服务质效，深化产业赋能。坚持"一品一策"优化已上市品种合约及业务规 则，"一企一策"开展市场培育活动，支持风险管理公司、大宗商品交易商引导企业拓展期货应用场景， 扩宽产业"期权+"服务范围，持续提升产业客户参与度。有序推进"保险+期货"、"糖业无忧"项目实施， 优化完善"商储无忧"业务模式，打造更多有影响力的特色品牌。大力支持会员发展，及时回应市场关心 关切。 同时，郑商所稳步扩大高水平开放，加快建设世界一流交易所。锚定高质量发展目标方向，制定实 施"十五五"战略规划，以务实举措 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fell slightly. EIA data showed an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories and a decrease in crude oil inventories. Refinery开工率 was high, but the increase in product inventories disappointed the market. With the ongoing tariff war and lower - than - expected demand, prices are in a weak oscillation [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are mainly oscillating following the cost - end crude oil. The LU - FU spread has widened, but there is medium - term supply pressure for low - sulfur fuel oil, and short positions can be considered at high prices [2]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of the adjustment of fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policies is not yet apparent. Short - term supply will decrease, and the market will oscillate narrowly following crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: Polyester prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The production and sales of polyester yarn are weak, and some devices are starting up or shutting down. The demand - side inventory pressure is significant, and some products are in a loss state [2][4]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The export volume of Cambodian latex decreased in the first half of 2025. The domestic natural rubber inventory increased slightly, and the production increase is being realized [4]. - **Methanol**: The load of Iranian devices has recovered, and the arrival volume has increased. Downstream profits have improved, and prices have returned to an oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The enterprise's operating rate has decreased, demand has not improved significantly, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 8 - month contract closed at $66.38/barrel, down $0.14 or 0.21%. Brent 9 - month contract closed at $68.52/barrel, down $0.19 or 0.28%. SC2508 closed at 517.20 yuan/barrel. Gasoline and distillate inventories increased, while crude oil inventories decreased. The market was disappointed with demand, and prices oscillated weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.45% to 2880 yuan/ton, and the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil fell 0.47% to 3630 yuan/ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. The market oscillated following crude oil, and short positions can be considered for the LU - FU spread [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt fell 0.22% to 3623 yuan/ton. The supply will decrease in the short term, and the market will oscillate following crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4706 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. EG2509 closed at 4351 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. The production and sales of polyester yarn were weak, and prices oscillated weakly [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 105 yuan/ton to 14500 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 110 yuan/ton to 12490 yuan/ton. The export volume of Cambodian latex decreased, and domestic inventory increased slightly. Rubber prices oscillated weakly [4]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2382 yuan/ton. Iranian device load recovered, and prices oscillated [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawing was 7020 - 7160 yuan/ton. Supply changes were limited, and prices oscillated narrowly [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. The enterprise's operating rate decreased, and the upward rebound space was limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - EIA data showed that last week, US gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels, and crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels to 422.2 million barrels [9]. - Refineries were operating at a high rate, but the increase in product inventories disappointed the market. After the July 4th holiday, gasoline demand decreased, and the supply of gasoline products decreased by 670,000 barrels per day to 8.5 million barrels per day [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [11][13][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][34][36] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49] - **Inter - product Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][63][65] - **Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][70][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [75]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [76]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis [77]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [78]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The drivers of commodity futures are differentiated, with coking coal being relatively strong and lithium carbonate and PTA being relatively weak [1]. - Stock indices are in a period of consolidation, and their medium - to long - term upward trend is clear. The bond market is running at a high level, and gold is oscillating at a high level [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market oscillated strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high. The trading volume of the two markets was about 1.4 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous week. The steel, banking, and building materials sectors led the gains, while the comprehensive finance and computer industries led the losses. The four major stock index futures showed differentiated trends, with IF and IH strengthening, and IC and IM oscillating at high levels [1]. - In the short term, stock indices may maintain high - level consolidation. In the medium - to long - term, with clear policy support and improved fundamental expectations, the inflow of medium - to long - term funds continues, and the upward trend of stock indices is clear. Overseas, attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations. Domestically, during the interim report season, the earnings of IF and IH constituent stocks are more certain, and their trends may be stronger [1]. Bonds - Last week, the bond market rose slightly and remained at a high level. The US is in trade negotiations with many countries, and there is still high uncertainty. The central bank continued its net capital withdrawal operation at the beginning of the month, but the capital market remained loose, and the inter - bank capital cost declined across the board [1]. - Although the bond issuance pressure has increased, the market's expectation of liquidity remains optimistic. Overall, the macro - environment has strong uncertainty and limited trend drivers. The bond market remains at a high level, but there is still high - valuation pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market [1]. Gold and Silver - The suspension period of US reciprocal tariffs is about to end, and short - term policy uncertainty has increased again. However, there are more signals of strong US economic resilience, which is conducive to restoring market risk appetite. The short - term probability of a Fed rate cut has decreased, and the factors favorable to the gold price in the long - term need further fermentation [1]. - In the short term, the driving force for the gold price to break through upwards is insufficient, and it will continue to oscillate at a high level in July. The gold - silver ratio is high, and there is a possibility of repair. The silver price has strong technical support below after the breakthrough. It is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money put option positions of the gold and silver 08 contracts until expiration [4]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, Shanghai copper was strong in the first half of the week and fell back in the second half, returning below 80,000 yuan. The US is in trade negotiations with many countries, and there is still high uncertainty. The supply at the mine end remains tight, and attention should be paid to the development of the Peruvian copper mine incident [3][4]. - The demand remains cautiously expected, and the off - season and high prices have restricted the downstream to a certain extent. The inventories of domestic and overseas exchanges have increased across the board, and the LME spot premium has significantly declined. The financial attribute still supports the copper price in the medium - to long - term, and the low - inventory pattern is expected to remain unchanged before the copper tariff is implemented. However, the short - term positive factors may weaken [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - The US trade negotiation uncertainty remains high. The concern about ore disturbances in alumina has not subsided, but the domestic bauxite inventory is still high, and the short - term supply shortage concern is limited. The alumina production capacity is expanding rapidly, and the downstream demand has little room for growth, so the surplus pattern is difficult to change [3][4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the supply constraint is still clear, and the import profit remains inverted. The demand is still cautious due to the off - season, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. Overall, the alumina surplus pattern is difficult to change, and the price is under pressure. The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, but the short - term demand and inventory have certain drags, and the influence of tariffs has increased [4]. Nickel - The supply of Philippine nickel ore has recovered seasonally, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the nickel ore price has weakened marginally. The supply of nickel iron is abundant, but the downstream acceptance is limited, and the price is under pressure [4]. - The production capacity of intermediate products is still expanding. The refined nickel production decreased in June, but the inventory remained oscillating at a high level. Overall, the demand is weak, the nickel supply has increased seasonally, and the surplus pattern is clear. As the macro - sentiment fades, the nickel price is under pressure. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of selling call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals Lithium Carbonate - The lithium ore price has stabilized, which has increased the cost support. However, the surplus pattern of the lithium salt market has not been substantially improved. The weekly output of lithium carbonate remains at a relatively high level of over 18,000 tons, while the downstream demand has insufficient growth, and the inventory is still in the accumulation cycle [6]. - The current periodical rebound can be used to short at high prices [6]. Industrial Silicon - The number of open furnaces in the industrial silicon market has increased this week. Some manufacturers in the southwest region have resumed production due to the implementation of the wet - season subsidy electricity price, and the market supply has increased [6]. - Since the warehouse receipts are still being depleted, the near - month contracts are strongly supported. Attention should be paid to the implementation of anti - involution production cuts on the supply side [6]. Steel and Ore Rebar - The spot price of rebar was stable to slightly lower over the weekend, and the spot trading was generally weak. The "anti - involution" concept has boosted market expectations, but the improvement at the spot level is limited. The speculative demand has recovered, but the rigid demand has weakened seasonally, and the marginal inventory reduction speed of rebar has gradually slowed down [6]. - It is expected that the rebar futures price has strong bottom support but is subject to double pressure from the electric - furnace cost and the sustainability of spot price increases. It is recommended to continue holding the sold out - of - the - money put option positions (RB2510P2900) [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil was generally stable over the weekend, with slight declines in some areas, and the spot trading was generally weak. The "anti - involution" concept has boosted market expectations, but the follow - up power at the spot level is insufficient. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are both strong, and the inventory has increased [6]. - It is expected that the hot - rolled coil futures price has strong bottom support but is subject to pressure from export costs and the sustainability of spot price increases during the off - season. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see on the single - side and consider participating in the arbitrage strategy of compressing profits for the 01 contract [6]. Iron Ore - Last week, the daily output of molten iron in the Steel Union sample decreased but remained above 2.4 million tons. Under the background of high molten iron output and low steel mill raw material inventory, the supply - demand contradiction of imported ore in July is limited [6]. - The "anti - involution" concept has boosted market expectations, and the steel futures and spot prices have risen in resonance. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to continue holding the sold out - of - the money put option I2509 - P680 and consider participating in the 9 - 1 positive spread when the spread is low [6]. Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The raw coal inventory in coal mines has continued to decline, the pit - mouth transaction atmosphere has improved, and the enthusiasm of steel, coke enterprises, and trading links for raw material procurement and inventory has increased. The transaction rate has reached a new high for the year, and the short - term supply - demand mismatch has pushed up the coal price [8]. - It is recommended to continue holding the long - position strategy and pay attention to the coal mine production increase progress after the safety production month and the sustainability of downstream procurement [8]. Coke - Hebei steel mills may have production restrictions, but the daily output of molten iron is at a relatively high seasonal level, which supports the rigid demand for coke. The actual demand performance is good, while the coke oven operation is restricted by profit factors and is difficult to significantly increase production. Coke plants are actively reducing inventory, and there is an expectation of price increases in the spot market [8]. Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The fundamentals of soda ash are clear. The daily output of soda ash remained unchanged at 99,300 tons on Friday, and Kunshan and Qinghai Fatou will resume production one after another this week. The demand for light soda ash is difficult to offset the reduction in heavy soda ash demand [8]. - The supply of soda ash is relatively loose, and the continuous passive inventory accumulation trend of alkali plants remains unchanged. In the short term, the soda ash price oscillates at a low level, and the near - month contracts are weaker than the far - month contracts due to the selling - hedging pressure. It is recommended to hold the short positions of the soda ash 09 contract with a stop - profit line and patiently hold the strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [8]. Float Glass - The operating capacity of float glass is temporarily stable, and the demand is difficult to digest both the supply and the existing inventory at the same time. The glass factory inventory fluctuates slightly, and it is difficult to reduce the high inventory [8]. - The "anti - involution" concept has promoted the recovery of market expectations, but the short - term implementation probability is low, and the cold - repair drive of glass factories is still accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 01 contract at low prices after the basis widens and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [8]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the US "Big and Beautiful" Act has been passed by both houses of Congress, which may increase US crude oil production. The EIA weekly data shows an unexpected inventory accumulation, which is generally bearish [8]. - Overall, the OPEC+ production increase decision may increase the supply pressure, and the short - term oil price will oscillate weakly [8]. PTA - The cost - end crude oil OPEC+ continues to significantly increase production, and the oil price is expected to move down, providing weak support for energy - chemical products. In addition, the PTA supply side will face the pressure of new production capacity and the resumption of existing maintenance capacity in the third quarter, and the inventory - reduction pattern will turn into inventory accumulation [11]. - It is expected that the price will show an oscillating downward trend [11]. Methanol - Most Iranian methanol plants have restarted, but the operating load is low. The operating rate of overseas methanol plants has increased by 11% to 64%. Many plants in the northwest started maintenance last week, and the output will decrease by about 5% in the next month, and the factory inventory will also decrease passively [10]. - The monthly arrival volume has decreased more than expected, and the weekly volume is expected to not exceed 300,000 tons. Although the downstream demand has entered the off - season, the total demand has not changed significantly. Therefore, the supply will be tight in July, and the methanol price is supported. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options or at - the - money straddles for the 08 options contract [10]. Polyolefins - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, with an increase of 548,000 barrels per day starting in August and considering another increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September. The crude oil supply is increasingly surplus, and the price will continue to decline [10]. - In the second quarter, new polyolefin plants were successfully put into operation. In the second half of the year, PE will have 3.1 million tons of new production capacity, and PP will have 2.1 million tons of new production capacity, resulting in large supply pressure. It is recommended to go long on the L - PP spread and short on PP 3MA [10]. Cotton - The domestic cotton output in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 6.784 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease, and the expectation of tight supply and demand in the current season has strengthened. The third quarter is the critical growth period of cotton, and any adverse weather conditions may cause final yield losses and push up the weather premium [10]. - The downstream textile enterprises are performing well, the terminal clothing consumption has remained basically unchanged year - on - year, and the commercial inventory has continued to decline. It is recommended to continue holding the previous long positions [10]. Rubber - The rubber tapping operations in domestic and Southeast Asian main producing areas have progressed smoothly, the impact of climate factors has weakened, and the expected seasonal increase in raw material supply has been realized. The downstream tire enterprises have difficulty in depleting finished - product inventory, which has dragged down the production line operation rate [10]. - The inventory at the port is accelerating accumulation, indicating an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the fundamentals. The rubber price is likely to continue the weak - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to hold the strategy of selling call options [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, various ratings such as "oscillating strongly," "oscillating weakly," "oscillating," "rising," and "falling" are given [1][4][6][8][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships of various commodities. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals [1][4][6][8][10]. - The upward breakthrough of stock index futures requires further accumulation of policy and capital benefits, while the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Bond markets are expected to have no trend - like market due to uncertainties [1]. - For most commodities, the supply - demand relationship is the key factor affecting their prices. For example, commodities with oversupply are likely to have downward pressure on prices, while those with tight supply may see price increases [2][4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures are approaching the upper resistance level, and further breakthrough requires the accumulation of policy and capital benefits. The short - term upward momentum is slightly weakened, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to lay out IF and IM on dips and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US trade negotiations on market risk preference [1]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market is oscillating. There are uncertainties in domestic and foreign macro - economic conditions and domestic policy rhythms. The bond market is expected to have no trend - like market. In the short term, the capital market and short - term macro - events are the main driving factors. There is some support in the bond market under the loose liquidity environment, but the upward momentum is cautious [1]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are oscillating strongly. The Sino - US second - round trade negotiations may achieve limited/phase results. The US employment data is resilient, but the risk of re - inflation still exists. It is recommended to buy on dips based on long - term moving averages or continue to hold short - selling out - of - the - money put options for gold. For silver, continue to hold long positions in the 08 contract or hold short - selling out - of - the money put options [1][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is oscillating. The macro - economic situation has high uncertainty, and the supply of the mine end is still tight. The demand is cautious due to the macro - uncertainty and the domestic consumption off - season. The LME inventory is continuously decreasing. Short - term market sentiment and funds may magnify price fluctuations [4]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is oscillating, and alumina is oscillating weakly. The supply of alumina has uncertainties, but the short - term impact is weakened. The resumption of production increases the supply pressure, and the price may continue to run close to the cost line. The supply of aluminum has clear constraints, but the demand policy has uncertainties [4]. - Nickel: The price is oscillating. The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is gradually recovering, but there are policy concerns. The downstream stainless steel demand is weak, and the nickel market is in an oversupply situation. It is not advisable to chase short positions for now, and continue to hold previously short - sold call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Styrene: The support is strengthening, and new long positions can be entered for EB2508 [2]. - PTA: The supply increase is expected to be clear, and the previously short positions of PTA2509 can be held [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is in a loose pattern, and the short - sold call options of LC2509 - C - 60000 can be held [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. However, the technical side shows signs of over - decline repair. It is recommended to enter short - selling put options [6]. - Crude Oil: The price is oscillating weakly. Although there are positive expectations for trade negotiations and the OPEC production increase is lower than expected, the consumption side is not good, and the global inventory is difficult to reduce. It is not advisable to chase long positions for now [8]. - Polyester: The price is oscillating weakly. The supply increase is expected to be clear, and the market lacks upward driving force [10]. - Methanol: The price is rising. The spot trading has improved significantly, but the terminal demand is in the off - season. Unless the supply is significantly reduced, the price is difficult to rise sharply [10]. - Polyolefins: The price is falling. The restart of maintenance devices increases the supply pressure. If the inventory accumulates in the upper and middle reaches, the price will further decline [10]. Black Metals - Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, and Iron Ore: All are oscillating. The Sino - US trade negotiations are in progress, and the market sentiment is cautious. The demand for construction steel is in the off - season, and the supply of iron ore is expected to increase. For rebar, continue to hold short - sold out - of - the money call options; for hot - rolled coil, hold previously recommended short positions; for iron ore, cautious investors can hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination, and aggressive investors can hold short positions in the I2601 contract [6]. Coal and Coke - Coking Coal and Coke: Both are oscillating weakly. The supply of coking coal is in an oversupply situation, and the demand of steel and coking enterprises is in the off - season. For coke, although there may be production restrictions due to environmental inspections, the terminal demand is weak, and the demand decline rate is higher than the supply decline rate [8]. Building Materials - Soda Ash and Float Glass: Both are in a bearish trend. The supply of soda ash is relatively loose compared to demand, and the high inventory is difficult to digest. For float glass, the demand is affected by the season and the real - estate market, and the inventory is high. Hold previously recommended short positions for soda ash and float glass and consider relevant spread strategies [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The price is oscillating. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the price trend depends on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [10]. - Rubber: The price is oscillating weakly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The terminal consumption is in the off - season, and the rubber price is difficult to have a trend - like rebound [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Alumina, Cotton [1][2][10] - Bearish: Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Methanol, Polyolefin, Rubber [1][4][10] - Sideways: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Iron Ore, Crude Oil, PTA, Ethylene Glycol [2][4][6][8] - Sideways with a Downward Bias: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coking Coal, Coke, Soda Ash, Float Glass [5][6][8] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily strategy for various futures products, analyzing their fundamentals and market conditions, and giving corresponding investment suggestions [1][2]. - Due to factors such as policy uncertainty, supply - demand imbalances, and seasonal effects, different futures products show different trends [2][4][6]. Summary by Product Category Equity Index Futures - The downward risk of the stock index continues to weaken, but the upward movement awaits the accumulation of trading volume. In the current shock - building phase, focus on the long - position opportunities of IF and IM corresponding to domestic demand consumption and the technology main line [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, and the long - term downward trend of yields is clear, but the short - term new driving forces are limited, and the range - bound pattern is expected to continue [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are running strongly due to the weakening of the US dollar and geopolitical disturbances. It is recommended to hold existing long positions in AU2508, and new orders can consider selling out - of - the - money put options on gold/silver or buying on pullbacks. Silver follows the trend of gold [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to move within a range due to macro uncertainties and cautious demand expectations [4]. - Alumina sentiment is bullish because of the fermentation of Guinea's mining policy, but the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged [4]. - Nickel prices are in a difficult position, with the surplus contradiction continuing, but the cost support is strong, and the range - bound pattern is difficult to reverse [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial silicon futures are expected to continue their downward trend due to the expected increase in supply and high inventory [4]. - Crude oil market has high supply concerns, and the strategy is mainly short - allocation, paying attention to OPEC's decision on the July production plan [8]. - PTA and ethylene glycol markets have short - term adjustments, but the downside support is strong [8]. - Methanol prices are falling due to increased arrivals and production [10]. Building Materials - Soda ash has no clear signal to stop falling, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 09 contract and short on rebounds [8]. - Float glass prices are not expected to bottom out and rebound before a new round of cold repairs by glass factories, and it is recommended to hold existing short positions in the FG509 contract [8]. Steel and Minerals - Rebar is expected to be weak in the second quarter, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options [5][6]. - Hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be weak in the second quarter, and new orders are advised to wait and see [6]. - Iron ore supply is expected to be in surplus in the future, and it is recommended to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and wait for opportunities to short far - month contracts [6]. Coal and Coke - Coking coal prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand, and the strategy is short - allocation [6]. - Coke prices are expected to be weak due to the weakening of demand and the possible second - round price cut [6]. Agricultural Products - Cotton prices are expected to rise as tariffs support export orders, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in production areas and macro - changes [10]. - Rubber prices are in a weak range - bound pattern due to seasonal production increases and poor demand transmission, and it is recommended to hold short positions in call options [10].

Key Points Summary of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Methanol, Coking Coal, Soda Ash, Crude Oil, Polyolefins, Rubber [1][8][10] - **Bullish**: Cotton [10] - **Range - bound**: Stock Index Futures, Treasury Bonds, Precious Metals, Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper, Nickel), Industrial Silicon, Iron Ore, Coke, PTA [2][4][5][6][8][10] - **Weakly Bearish**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Carbonate Lithium, Glass, Methanol [6][8][10] - **Weakly Bullish**: Non - Ferrous Metals (Aluminum and Alumina), Polyester [4][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The domestic economic data in April was stable, but there was a lack of significant positive factors in the fundamental and policy aspects. The A - share market will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the downward risk is controllable. The long - term downward trend of bond yields is certain, but there are large uncertainties in the macro and capital aspects [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodities have different market trends due to various factors such as supply and demand, cost, and geopolitical situation. For example, some commodities are affected by supply increases, cost decreases, or geopolitical easing, showing a downward or weakening trend; while others are supported by supply constraints or demand improvements, showing a bullish or range - bound trend. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: In April, the domestic economic data was stable. The A - share market continued to fluctuate, with the trading volume remaining at a low level. The influence of dividends on the basis of index futures contracts gradually increased. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the A - share market will continue to fluctuate. Considering the role of Central Huijin and policy promotion, the downward risk is controllable. Attention should be paid to low - level long - buying opportunities [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Situation**: The bond market rose slightly, and the four major contracts closed up. There were still uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs, and the domestic economic data was mixed. - **Outlook**: The long - term downward trend of bond yields is certain, but there are large uncertainties in the macro and capital aspects. The market is greatly affected by capital expectations, and overall caution is still needed. Attention should be paid to the LPR interest rate [2]. Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: The demand for hedging decreased, and the price of gold fluctuated at a high level. The ratio of gold to silver was high, and silver had strong support. - **Outlook**: Precious metals will maintain a high - level range - bound trend for the time being, waiting for the enhancement of the upward driving force in the large cycle [2][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation was still uncertain, and the supply was in a tight pattern. The domestic consumption peak season was coming to an end, and the demand was affected by the macro aspect. The copper price will continue to fluctuate [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The short - term supply of alumina was tight, and the price was strong, but the medium - term over - supply pattern remained unchanged, and the price game intensified. The supply of aluminum was rigidly restricted, and the price continued to fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals of nickel lacked directional driving force. The price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the near term, and the odds of unilateral strategies were limited [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: The supply in the north decreased due to equipment maintenance and cost inversion, while the southwest increased production. The demand from the polysilicon industry did not increase, and the industry continued to accumulate inventory. - **Outlook**: The resistance to price increases was still large, and the price will fluctuate [6]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The steel market showed a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. The real - estate investment weakened, and the supply pressure might increase in the off - season. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, and the short - term price range was [3000, 3150]. It was recommended to continue to hold the sold out - of - the - money call options [6]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The direct and indirect exports of steel were strong, but the long - term external demand was uncertain. The supply pressure might increase in the off - season. It was expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, and the short - term price range was [3150, 3300]. It was recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand structure of iron ore was relatively healthy, but the long - term over - supply pattern was clear. It was recommended to continue to hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination and wait for the opportunity to short the far - month contract at high prices [6]. Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal was loose, and the downstream demand was weak. The price was bearish, and the short - selling strategy should be continued [6]. - **Coke**: The demand for coke was supported in the short term, but the market was not optimistic about the long - term demand. The first round of price cuts was successful, and the price trend remained weak [6]. Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The production capacity of soda ash was over - supplied, and the inventory was high. There was no clear signal of a stop - fall. It was recommended to hold the short position of the 09 contract and short on rebounds [8]. - **Glass**: The speculative demand for glass was good, but the real - estate market continued to decline, and the inventory risk was high. It was recommended to hold the short position of the FG509 contract [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: There were still uncertainties in the macro and geopolitical aspects. The possibility of OPEC+ increasing production was high. - **Outlook**: Without obvious positive factors, the oil price might continue to decline. It was recommended to continue to hold the short - selling strategy [8]. Polyester - **Market Situation**: The supply of PTA was tightened due to large - scale maintenance, and the demand from the polyester industry was at a high level. - **Outlook**: The price was strongly supported and showed a weakly bullish trend [8]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: The planned restart of some maintenance devices and the increase in expected supply, combined with the decline in coal prices, led to a weak methanol trend. - **Outlook**: The price was bearish, and attention should be paid to the increase in the arrival volume [10]. Polyolefins - **Market Situation**: Multiple economic data were poor, and the PE operating rate decreased to the lowest level of the year, while the PP operating rate increased. The L - PP spread widened. - **Outlook**: The downward trend will continue [10]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The growth of cotton seedlings was good, and the relaxation of Sino - US tariff policies was expected to increase export orders. - **Outlook**: The price was bullish, and attention should be paid to weather and macro changes [10]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: The inventory removal in ports was slow, and the raw materials entered the seasonal production - increasing season. The supply increased while the demand decreased. - **Outlook**: The price was weakly bearish, and the strategy of selling call options should be held [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, it gives a view of "oscillation" [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price center of oil rose significantly. Geopolitical issues, such as the tension between the US and Iran, and the market's attention to the implementation of US tariff policies, are expected to cause the oil price to continue its rebound [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The second - batch of low - sulfur marine fuel oil export quotas in 2025 increased by 30% compared to the same period last year. The short - term supply shortage of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease, and the domestic bonded low - sulfur marine fuel oil export may gradually increase. However, attention should be paid to the risk of price decline after short - term oil price fluctuations [1]. - **Asphalt**: Raw material supply may be affected by US sanctions on Venezuela, and the comprehensive production cost of local refineries will increase in the second quarter, which will suppress supply. Terminal demand is expected to pick up seasonally, but the lack of momentum in traditional infrastructure may limit the actual improvement in demand [2]. - **Polyester**: Multiple polyester plants have carried out maintenance and production cuts. Downstream demand support has weakened, and polyester chain prices are under pressure to fall [2]. - **Rubber**: Domestic production in Yunnan is expected to be normal, and downstream tire demand remains stable. With supply increasing and demand stable, rubber prices are weak, and attention should be paid to changes in weather conditions [3]. - **Methanol**: The supply side has good production profits, and overseas supply is recovering. The demand side is expected to remain high in the short term but may weaken in the long term. Overall, the near - term inventory will continue to decline, but the long - term supply and demand may be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Polyolefins**: As refinery maintenance increases, supply pressure decreases, but demand will also weaken marginally. Short - term inventory decline is limited, and prices may oscillate weakly [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Both supply and demand will weaken marginally, and inventory will decline slowly. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI May contract closed at $71.48/barrel, up $2.12 or 3.06%; Brent May contract closed at $74.74/barrel, up $1.11 or 1.51%; SC2505 closed at 553.9 yuan/barrel, up 16.5 yuan or 3.07%. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran led to the rise in oil prices, and the overall oil price is expected to continue to rebound [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU2505 closed down 0.37% at 3208 yuan/ton; LU2506 closed down 0.81% at 3677 yuan/ton. The second - batch of low - sulfur marine fuel oil export quotas in 2025 was 5200000 tons, an increase of 1200000 tons or 30% compared to last year [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2506 closed down 0.75% at 3587 yuan/ton. Raw material supply may be affected by sanctions, and demand is expected to pick up seasonally, but traditional infrastructure may limit demand improvement [2]. - **Polyester**: TA505 closed down 1.06% at 4842 yuan/ton; EG2505 closed down 0.09% at 4447 yuan/ton. Multiple polyester plants carried out maintenance and production cuts, and downstream demand weakened [2]. - **Rubber**: RU2505 fell 110 yuan/ton to 16560 yuan/ton; NR fell 0 yuan/ton to 14390 yuan/ton; BR fell 25 yuan/ton to 13535 yuan/ton. Yunnan's production is expected to be normal, and downstream demand is stable [3]. - **Methanol**: Supply is recovering, and demand is expected to weaken in the long term. The near - term inventory will decline, but the long - term supply and demand may be loose [4]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure decreases, but demand weakens marginally. Short - term inventory decline is limited, and prices may oscillate weakly [5]. - **PVC**: Both supply and demand will weaken marginally, and inventory will decline slowly. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [5]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on March 31, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantiles of the latest basis rates in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that if the US attacks Iran without a nuclear agreement, the US will be severely hit. Trump previously threatened to bomb Iran if it does not accept the negotiation proposal in early March [9]. - New York Fed President Williams said there is a risk of inflation rising this year, but his baseline view is that inflation will remain relatively stable, and inflation is affected by tariffs and other policies [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [11]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., and their historical trends [26]. - **4.3 Inter - term Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [65]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [71]. 3.6 Contact Information The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [76].