1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite following the Sino - US trade talks. Macro factors like tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and COMEX - LME spread are important. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, but high prices may suppress downstream demand. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. Spot prices are expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is significant, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to LME zinc market concerns and Sino - US trade talks, zinc prices rebounded. Supply is expected to be loose, and demand has no outstanding performance. Short - term prices may be driven by macro factors, but the upward elasticity is limited, with the main contract in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin prices continued to oscillate at a high level. Supply is tight, and demand is weak. Future price trends depend on the recovery of Burmese tin ore supply in the fourth quarter [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Macro factors are temporarily stable, cost has support, but inventory accumulation exerts pressure [12]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to weakly oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton. There is cost support at the ore end, but demand during the peak season is not strongly boosted [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 76,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. The fundamentals have improved, with strong demand during the peak season and continued destocking [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85,490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day. The opening discount decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3,366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.11% to 68.07 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day. Alumina prices in various regions declined slightly [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month. Electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased to varying degrees [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from the previous day. The import loss increased to 6,393 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price fell to 280,000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The import loss increased to 16,213.05 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month. SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The import loss decreased to 670 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13,000 yuan/ton. The futures - spot price difference decreased to 405 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 2.70% to 12.03 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74,800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) decreased to - 1,980 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month. The demand was 116,801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月21日 星期二 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 85630 | 84775 | +855.00 | 1.01% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 60 | રેર | +5.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 85590 | 84855 | +735.00 | 0.87% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 65 | 130 | -65.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 85235 | 84680 | +855.00 | 1.01% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜开贴水 | -35 | -40 | +5.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 3570 | 2664 | +845.85 ...

| 沪铜日评20251020: 加征关税存不确定和铜矿供给预期紧张扰动铜价 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 | 近期走势 | 较昨日变动 | 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-09 | 2025-10-17 | 收盘价 | 85050 | 86750 | 84390 | -660.00 | | 成交量(手) | 121050 | 97535 | 23,515.00 | 137816 | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 持仓量(手) | 221715 | 53. 402. 00 | 215573 | 162171 | | 库存(吨) | 44406 | 29703 | -1,557.00 | 42849 | 沪铜县寿 | 385 | 125 | -1010 | 260. 00 | | | SMM 1#电解铜-平均价 | 84775 | 85175 | 85740 | -400.00 | SMM平水铜开贴水一平均价 | -5 | 30 | -10. 00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The price of Shanghai copper may be weak first and then strong due to the uncertainty of whether China and the US will impose additional tariffs, the expectation of future interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract - On October 15, 2025, the closing price was 85,800, up 1,390 from the previous day; the trading volume was 125,819 lots, down 85,165 from the previous day; the open interest was 175,899 lots, down 11,667 from the previous day; the inventory was 44,531 tons, up 8,236 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was - 565, down 2,145 from the previous day [1] 2. Shanghai Copper Basis or Spot Premium and Discount - SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price on October 15, 2025 was 85,235, down 755 from the previous day; SMM flat - water copper opening premium and discount - average price was 70, up 50 from the previous day; SMM premium copper opening premium and discount - average price was 130, up 30 from the previous day; SMM wet - process copper opening premium and discount - average price was 0, up 45 from the previous day; SMM Guixi copper opening premium and discount - average price was 150, up 20 from the previous day; EQ copper opening premium and discount: average price was - 90, up 15 from the previous day; SMM RMB Yangshan copper premium - average price was 369.43, up 0.12 from the previous day; SMM Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) - average price was 45, unchanged from the previous day; SMM Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) - average price was 52, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3. Spread (Near - month and Far - month) - On October 15, 2025, the spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous - 1 was - 150, down 140 from the previous day; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - 1 and Shanghai copper continuous - 2 was - 50, down 80 from the previous day; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - 2 and Shanghai copper continuous - 1 was 60, down 30 from the previous day [1] 4. London Copper - On October 15, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,576, down 22.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 27.94, down 26.93 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 171.49, up 18.49 from the previous day; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1127, up 0.15 from the previous day [1] 5. COMEX Copper - On October 15, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 4.972, down 0.16 from the previous day; the total inventory was 343,235, up 2,360 from the previous day [1] 6. Key Information and Investment Strategy - **Supply Side**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disruptions, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The expected increase in scrap copper supply has led to a rise in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees. Copper smelters' maintenance capacity in October increased month - on - month [1] - **Demand Side**: The shipping enthusiasm of domestic electrolytic copper spot traders has weakened, resulting in low downstream purchasing sentiment [1] - **Inventory Side**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared with last week [1] 7. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly lay out long positions after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The US dollar index rebounded near 100, and copper prices fluctuated weakly. Near the Sino - US tariff extension deadline, tariff rhythm may drive short - term trading. The weak US employment data led to expectations of Fed monetary easing. The widening COMEX - LME spread attracted non - US copper to the US. - The shortage of copper mine supply is a key concern. Mines like Grasberg, Kamoa - Kakula, and El Teniente have had disruptions, which will support copper prices in the medium - to - long term. Focus on demand changes and Sino - US tariff negotiations, with support at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices continued to decline, and the spot market was weak. With sufficient supply, high operating capacity, and increasing overseas supply, while demand was weak, the alumina market is expected to remain in surplus, with the main contract oscillating between 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton. - The center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum futures prices moved up, with a tight - balance fundamental situation. Macro - level factors are positive, but high prices suppress downstream procurement. It is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with the main contract in the 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton range [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy futures prices oscillated with aluminum prices. Cost support was strong due to rising scrap aluminum prices. Supply was affected by raw material shortages and unclear tax policies, while demand showed a mild recovery. Inventory was increasing, and imports were limited. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain high - level oscillations, with the main contract in the 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton range [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated, with pressure above. The supply - side logic of looseness has been transmitted from zinc mines to zinc ingots. The increase in zinc ingot production is limited by factors such as TC and sulfuric acid prices. Demand was not outstanding. It is expected to maintain oscillations, with the main contract in the 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton range [7]. Tin - Tin prices were affected by supply and demand. Supply of tin ore was tight, and smelting processing fees were low. Demand in traditional sectors was weak, although some consumption was driven by AI and photovoltaics. Considering the strong supply - side and macro - level uncertainties, focus on the buying point when the macro - sentiment drops. The future trend depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar [9]. Nickel - Shanghai nickel futures oscillated weakly. Macro - level factors were uncertain, including Sino - US tariffs and Fed policies. Spot nickel prices declined slightly, and downstream procurement increased. Nickel ore prices were firm, and nickel - iron prices were under pressure. It is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton range [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel futures prices oscillated downward. Macro - level risks were amplified, and raw material prices provided cost support. Demand in the peak season did not materialize, and inventory pressure increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton range [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated strongly. The fundamental situation was in a tight - balance during the peak season. Production increased, demand was optimistic, and the entire industry chain continued to reduce inventory. It is expected to oscillate, with the price center in the 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 1.11% to 85990 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped to 50 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper rose 1.48% to 86160 yuan/ton, and its premium increased to 20 yuan/ton. SMM wet - process copper rose 1.15% to 85895 yuan/ton, with a stable premium of - 45 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased 10.06% to 3567 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread increased to - 10 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased to 30 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to 90 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and in August, imports decreased 10.99% to 26.43 million tons. The import copper concentrate index increased 0.44 to - 40.36 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased 3.50% to 66.02 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production decreased to 43.44%, and that of recycled copper rod production decreased to 18.56%. Social inventory in China increased 15.98% to 17.20 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 15.42% to 10.97 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.48% to 20900 yuan/ton, and its premium increased to 0 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangxi, and Guizhou all decreased [3]. Monthly Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread remained at - 20 yuan/ton, the 2510 - 2511 spread decreased to - 15 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased to - 5 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to 10 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. In August, electrolytic aluminum imports decreased to 21.73 million tons, and exports decreased to 2.56 million tons. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, cables, sheets, foils, and primary aluminum alloys all decreased. Social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China increased 9.80% to 65.00 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.41% to 50.4 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained stable. The refined - scrap spreads in Foshan, Shanghai, etc. showed different changes. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased to - 55 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased 7.48% to 66.10 million tons. In August, primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased 1.88% to 27.10 million tons, and scrap aluminum production increased 8.16% to 79.76 million tons. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloys increased. Social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased 1.26% to 5.64 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.05% to 22210 yuan/ton, and its premium increased to - 55 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 4931 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.47 [7]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread increased to - 20 yuan/ton, and other monthly spreads remained stable [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased 4.17% to 60.01 million tons. In August, imports increased 43.30% to 2.57 million tons, and exports decreased 23.40% to 0.03 million tons. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloys, and zinc oxide decreased. Social inventory of zinc ingots in China increased 15.35% to 16.31 million tons, and LME inventory increased 3.00% to 3.9 million tons [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased 0.14% to 282000 yuan/ton, and its premium remained stable. LME 0 - 3 premium decreased 70.98% to - 105.99 dollars/ton [9]. Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - The import loss decreased 16.14% to - 14872.09 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.94 [9]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased to - 430 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased to - 250 yuan/ton, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to - 200 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased to 20 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In August, tin ore imports decreased 0.11% to 10267 tons. In September, SMM refined tin production decreased 31.71% to 10510 tons, and the average operating rate decreased 31.77% to 43.60%. In September, Indonesian refined tin exports increased 50.00% to 4800 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased 0.29% to 122100 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased 0.30% to 123300 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased 4.55% to - 203 dollars/ton, and the import profit/loss decreased 28.08% to - 1086 yuan/ton [11]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased to - 160 yuan/ton, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased to - 220 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased to - 220 yuan/ton [11]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - In China, refined nickel products increased 1.26% to 32200 tons, and imports decreased 3.00% to 17010 tons. SHFE inventory increased 1.75% to 29008 tons, social inventory increased 7.02% to 43694 tons, and LME inventory increased 0.48% to 243258 tons [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased 0.38% to 12950 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased 7.77% to 515 yuan/ton [13]. Raw Material Price - The prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore, South African chrome concentrate, 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron, and other raw materials showed different changes [13]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased to - 25 yuan/ton, the 2512 - 2601 spread remained at - 90 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased to - 60 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In China, 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and in Indonesia, it increased 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. In August, stainless steel imports increased 60.48% to 11.72 million tons, exports increased 7.60% to 44.79 million tons, and net exports decreased 3.65% to 33.07 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased 6.93% to 50.46 million tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 0.79% to 8.45 million tons [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased 0.14% to 73000 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased 0.14% to 70750 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased 0.12% to 828 dollars/ton [15]. Monthly Spread - The 2510 - 2511 spread increased to 20 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increased to - 120 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2601 spread increased to - 80 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased 2.37% to 87260 tons, and battery - grade lithium carbonate production increased 4.77% to 67240 tons. In August, exports increased 0.70% to 383 tons. In October, production capacity increased 3.67% to 149820 tons, and the operating rate remained at 55%. Total inventory increased 0.38% to 94539 tons, downstream inventory increased 15.29% to 609999 tons, and smelter inventory decreased 19.16% to 32930 tons [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The expectation of tariff relief and tight supply of copper mines support copper prices. Fed rate - cuts, loose fiscal policies in multiple countries, production disruptions in overseas copper mines, and the easing signal after the US threat to impose tariffs on China may make the Shanghai copper price more likely to rise than fall [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Shanghai Copper Futures - **Price and Volume**: On October 13, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 85,120, down 790 from the previous day. The trading volume was 291,422 lots, an increase of 78,954 lots. The open interest was 201,831 lots, a decrease of 14,284 lots. The inventory was 32,890 tons, an increase of 2,926 tons [1]. - **Basis and Premium**: The Shanghai copper basis was - 75, down 845. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 85,045, down 1,635. Various copper premiums and discounts showed different changes [1]. - **Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 120, down 110. The spread between the first and the second continuous contracts was 0, unchanged, and the spread between the second and the third continuous contracts was 40, an increase of 70 [1]. 3.2. London Copper - On October 13, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,802, an increase of 428. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 226.78, an increase of 257.97, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 209.5, an increase of 135.30. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.8800, down 0.40 [1]. 3.3. COMEX Copper - On October 13, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.13, down 0.01, and the total inventory was 340,875 tons, an increase of 2,716 tons [1]. 3.4. Supply - Demand - Inventory - **Supply**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The scrap copper supply is expected to be tight, and the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates have begun to rise. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [1]. - **Demand**: Due to the sharp rise in copper prices, downstream buyers mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared with last week. The LME electrolytic copper inventory has decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when the price falls. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 80,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 [1].

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20250922: Pre-holiday Stockpiling and High Prices May Cause Copper Prices to Fluctuate" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The Fed's future interest rate cut path is hawkish, but pre-holiday stockpiling before the National Day and high copper prices affect downstream purchasing willingness, which may cause Shanghai copper prices to fluctuate at high levels [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,910, up 290 from the previous day; trading volume was 48,845 lots, a decrease of 41,669 lots; open interest was 116,552 lots, a decrease of 11,308 lots; inventory was 31,838 tons, a decrease of 631 tons; the basis was 80, down 290 [3] - **LME Copper**: On September 19, 2025, the 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,996.5, up 50.5; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 64.9, up 6.19; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 153.2, up 7.081 [3] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.6305, up 0.01; total inventory was 316,774, an increase of 3,932 [3] Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative and rising China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The tight supply - demand expectation of scrap copper leads to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October increases month - on - month [3] - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season leads to a recovery in demand in some copper processing industries [3] - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared with last week [3] Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then mainly lay out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the pressure level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the pressure level around 10,200 - 10,500 for LME copper, the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the pressure level around 4.8 - 5.0 for COMEX copper [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to uncertainties in the Fed's future rate - cut amplitude, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season but the high copper price suppressing potential demand, the Shanghai copper price may experience adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Overview - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,880, down 60 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,548 hands, an increase of 19,677 hands; the open interest was 165,216 hands, a decrease of 14,040 hands; the inventory was 33,692 tons, an increase of 3,049 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium**: The Shanghai copper basis was 240 on September 16, 2025, up 240 from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 81,120, up 180 from the previous day [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 16, 2025, was 10,117, down 72 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 59.26, up 2.67 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on September 16, 2025, was 4.6991, up 0.05 from the previous day. The total inventory was 312,868, an increase of 2,381 from the previous day [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared to last week. The supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, causing the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates to decline. Copper smelters' maintenance capacity in September increased month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the DRC reduced production in September 2025 due to water - power supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the DRC [2]. - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season has led to a recovery in demand in some copper - processing industries. However, high copper prices have made downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventories and only make rigid - demand purchases [2]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared to last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - For previous long positions, take profits at high prices or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is almost certain, coupled with the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning into a peak season and the low level of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, which may lead to a relatively strong upward trend in the price of Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Information Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,780, up 370 from the previous value; the trading volume was 78,481 lots, an increase of 7,420; the open interest was 180,644 lots, an increase of 6,818; the inventory was 20,200 tons, a decrease of 1,212 tons [2]. - **SMM 1 Electrolytic Copper Average Price**: On September 1, 2025, it was 79,900, up 510 from the previous value [2]. - **London Copper**: On September 1, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,884, down 18; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 158,875 tons, a decrease of 158,875; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 86.27, down 6.01; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 172.11, down 13.12 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.585, up 0.08; the total inventory was 277,843 tons, an increase of 4,076 [2]. Industry Information - **Consumption and Production**: Although the copper foil operating rate is objectively high recently, due to low consumer demand, it has limited support for the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises. In August, as the steel rod operating rate declined, the substitution effect of refined copper rod consumption was more obvious in Jiangxi enterprises, but other regions did not feel a significant boost. In August, the domestic electrolytic copper production decreased only slightly by 0.28 tons, but affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and the expansion of some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from scrap copper has also decreased. SMM expects that the electrolytic copper production in September will drop significantly by 5.25 tons and remain at a low level in October [2]. - **Project Progress**: The floating ship pumping station and back - water system, a key supporting project of the Mirador copper mine expansion project under Tongling Nonferrous Metals, completed the overall commissioning, marking a solid step towards the full - scale completion and operation of the project. The Mirador copper mine is a landmark mining cooperation project between China and Ecuador under the Belt and Road Initiative [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Domestic Supply**: Due to policy influence, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from scrap copper will also reduce their expansion. In addition, September will enter the intensive maintenance period, so the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline significantly, and remain at a low level in October [2]. - **Import and Export**: The restriction of high - quality scrap copper exports in Europe, the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may lead to a decrease in the domestic scrap copper production (import) in September. The import window of electrolytic copper is opening, which may increase the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper. The continuous arrival of imported copper has increased the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper; the support level around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance level around 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].