在美国冬季风暴扰乱供应、美元走弱之际，美国总统特朗普对伊朗的新威胁给油价又添了一把火。国际原油期货本周三进一步走高，创四个月来盘中 新高，本月累计涨幅已超过10%，尽管市场此前普遍预期供应过剩。 据央视新闻，当地时间1月28日周三，特朗普在其个人社交媒体平台真实社交上发声称，"有一支庞大的舰队正驶向伊朗，行动迅速"，并表示希望此举 能促使伊朗"回到谈判桌前"，以此"谈判出一个公平合理的协议——无核武器——且对各方都有利的协议"。特朗普还称，这支舰队"规模超过此前派往 委内瑞拉的舰队"，且"下次对伊朗的打击将更加猛烈"。 特朗普发帖后，国际原油期货加速上涨。美股盘前刷新日高时，美国WTI原油期货涨至63.52美元，日内涨逾1.8%，布伦特原油涨至68.53美元，日内涨 逾1.4%，均刷新2025年9月末以来盘中高位。 伊朗驻联合国代表团在社交媒体X发帖重申，伊朗准备在相互尊重和利益基础上进行对话，同时表示将"以前所未有的方式捍卫自身并回应"美国的侵 略，此后油价收窄涨幅。美股早盘时，美油和布油的日内涨幅均收窄到不足1%，仍将连续两日收涨、且有望创约四个月来收盘新高。 伊朗供应风险为油价注入风险溢价，推动期货今年 ...

欧元近期持续走强，已突破1.20美元心理关口，创下2021年以来新高。此轮主要受美元走弱推动的升势，正将欧洲央行置于一个棘手的政策困 境。 投资者加码看涨押注 据熟悉交易情况的外汇交易员透露，宏观投资者与对冲基金本周已显著增持看涨欧元的期权头寸。存管信托与结算公司数据显示，过去一周交易 的欧元期权中，约十分之一的目标是押注欧元在6月底前升破1.25美元。 荷兰国际集团外汇策略主管Chris Turner指出： 欧元的快速升值将通过压低进口成本来抑制通胀，这直接冲击了欧洲央行维持物价稳定的核心任务基础，迫使决策者在矛盾的目标间进行权衡： 是因汇率对通胀的压制效应而考虑转向宽松，还是为确保持久的价格稳定而坚持现有紧缩立场，同时承受本币过度走强给经济带来的额外压力。 市场情绪明显倾向于继续看涨欧元。期权市场活动活跃，短期押注达到数月来的高位，部分长期合约甚至押注欧元将在6月底前升至1.25美元水 平。 "欧元走强是威胁欧洲央行中性政策前景的因素之一。近期的价格走势意味着，鸽派决策者可能有理由担忧，更强势的欧元或将导致通 胀率无法达到目标区间的下限。" 法国农业信贷银行外汇策略主管瓦伦丁·马里诺夫指出，未来走势的关键 ...

Group 1 - Adidas announced a strategic partnership with the Jiangsu Provincial City Football League for 2026, becoming the official partner and providing equipment for all 13 participating teams [1] - The sponsorship includes approximately 8 million yuan in cash support and 1 million yuan worth of apparel for each team, totaling over 20 million yuan, which is significantly higher than typical provincial amateur league sponsorships [1] - The Jiangsu Provincial League has become a phenomenon in Chinese grassroots football, with over 2.43 million attendees and an average attendance of 28,000 per match in the 2025 season, setting records for provincial leagues [1] Group 2 - The number of sponsors for the Jiangsu Provincial League increased from 6 to 29 in the 2025 season, with official sponsorship seats priced at 3 million yuan, indicating high demand [1] - The 2026 year is anticipated to be significant for football in China, especially after the U23 national team achieved a historic second place in the Asian Cup, raising public interest in the sport [1] - Adidas has been focusing on grassroots football and youth training programs, supporting various youth football leagues and initiatives in China, which aligns with its strategy to enhance its presence in the local football market [3]

BERNSTEIN SOCIETE GENERALE GROUP（以下简称为伯恩斯坦）最新报告维持了对闪迪"跑赢大盘"的评级，并将目标价定为580美元，这意味 着相较于当前约481.42美元的收盘价，仍有20%的潜在上涨空间。 报告认为，当前NAND闪存行业正处在一个由AI需求激增与供给增长放缓共同驱动的强劲上行周期。在此背景下，持续上涨的平均售价为闪迪本 季度的业绩提供了坚实支撑。 伯恩斯坦预计，闪迪第二财季的业绩将再次超越市场普遍预期，而公司对第三财季的业绩指引，则具备极大的上调可能，这可能成为本次财报的 最大看点。 行业上行周期加持：AI 引爆需求，供给持续收紧 本轮NAND存储行业上行周期的核心驱动力在于供需两侧的结构性变化。需求端，人工智能应用爆发持续拉动数据存储需求，市场对存储产品的 预期因英伟达Vera Rubin平台等相关技术进展而被进一步推高。供给端，行业整体产能扩张受限，新增供给稀缺，导致供需缺口持续存在，直接 推动NAND闪存价格进入明确的上升通道。 更早的2025年11月6日，闪迪给出的2026财年第二季度非GAAP每股收益指引为3.0至3.4美元，同样大幅高于市场预期的1.99美元， ...

央行观察到，2025年初受关税影响的行业削减了生产和就业，其负面影响在劳动力市场表现明显。尽管 下半年就业状况有所改善，失业率仍维持在6.8%的"高位"，青年失业率持续上升，计划招聘的企业数量 减少。通胀方面，央行预计近期通胀率将继续保持在2%目标附近，认为"贸易带来的成本压力被过剩的 供应所抵消"。 决议公布后，美元兑加元汇率延续了超过0.2%的跌幅。债券市场出现短线波动，10年期国债收益率攀 升至3.427%，两年期收益率升至2.595%，双双刷新日内高点。当日加拿大股市因假日休市。 1月28日，加拿大央行宣布维持2.25%的基准利率不变，这是其连续第二次会议按兵不动，符合市场普 遍预期。央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆明确表态，他们不确定暂停加息的时间会持续多久，也不确定借贷成 本的走向。 麦克勒姆在声明中指出： "加拿大经济正在适应美国保护主义带来的结构性阻力。管理委员会认为高度的不确定性使 得预测下一次利率调整的时机或方向变得困难。" 尽管如此，央行强调当前的政策利率"仍然适宜"，前提是经济发展与当前预测大体一致，并重申已"准 备好做出回应"。 在同时发布的货币政策报告中，央行对经济增长的预测与去年10月基本 ...

美国财长贝森特：美国目前"绝对不会"干预美元兑日元汇率。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

周三晚间，星巴克交出了一份令市场振奋的财报。这家全球最大的咖啡连锁企业在2026年第一财季实现全球同店销售增长4%，连续第二个季度录得正增 长，超出了华尔街最乐观的预期。 更值得关注的是，美国市场客流量八个季度来首次转正，标志着CEO Brian Niccol的"回归星巴克"（Back to Starbucks）转型战略正在产生实质性成果。 财报核心要点如下： 第一财季合并营收增长6%至99亿美元，全球同店销售由交易量增长3%和客单价增长1%共同驱动。 尽管销售增长强劲，但调整后每股收益为0.56美元，同比下降19%，已连续六个季度出现双位数下滑。 高昂的劳动力投资和咖啡成本上涨持续侵蚀利润率，第一财季GAAP运营利润率收缩290个基点至9.0% 公司在发布2026财年指引时表示，全球同店销售预计增长至少3%，并预期运营利润率将略有改善。 国际业务表现强劲，中国市场复苏势头明显 国际市场延续了增长势头，同店销售增长5%，超过北美市场表现。该地区营收大增10%至20.6亿美元，运营利润增长19%至2.83亿美元，运营利润率从 12.7%提升至13.7%，扩张100个基点。 | 财务指标 (Q1 FY26) | ...

上期所、上金所双双发布通知，对多品种期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例进行调整。 1月28日，上海黄金交易所（简称"上金所"）发布通知，根据《上海黄金交易所风险控制管理办法》的有关规定，我所对白银延期合约交易保证金 水平和涨跌停板比例进行调整。现将相关事项通知如下：自2026年1月30日（星期五）收盘清算时起，Ag（T+D）合约的保证金水平从19%调整 为20%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从18%调整为19%。 上海黄金交易所表示，请各会员提高风险防范意识，做细做好风险应急预案，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，合理控制仓位，理性投资，确保市 场稳定健康运行。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 任自负。 不锈钢、铸造铝合金、螺纹钢、热轧卷板期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为7%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为8%，一般持仓交易保证金 比例调整为9%。 黄金期货AU2606、AU2608、AU2610、AU2612、AU2702合约涨跌停板幅度调整为16%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调 ...

Core Insights - Corning reported record core performance for Q4 and the full year, driven by strong growth in optical communications and optimistic guidance for its long-term "Springboard" growth plan [1] Financial Performance - Q4 core sales reached $4.412 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase; core EPS was $0.72, up 26% [1] - For the full year, core sales totaled $16.408 billion, a 13% increase; core EPS was $2.52, up 29% [1] - GAAP revenue for Q4 was $4.215 billion, a 20% increase; GAAP EPS was $0.62, up 72% [1] - Full-year GAAP revenue was $15.629 billion, a 19% increase; GAAP EPS was $1.83, up 216% [1] Profitability and Cash Flow - Q4 core operating margin rose to 20.2%, with an annual core operating margin of 19.3%, indicating strong support from expense management and operational leverage [1] - Operating cash flow for 2025 was $2.7 billion, with adjusted free cash flow of $1.717 billion, up from $1.253 billion in 2024 [1] Business Segment Performance - Optical Communications segment saw a 35% increase in sales for the year, becoming the strongest growth driver [5][6] - Display segment experienced a revenue decline but maintained profit resilience [7] - Specialty Materials showed moderate revenue growth with faster profit increases, reflecting improved operational leverage [8] - The Automotive segment faced revenue pressure but achieved slight profit growth after restructuring [9] - Life Sciences maintained stable scale but experienced profit declines [9] Growth Guidance and Strategic Plans - For Q1 2026, the company expects core sales between $4.2 billion and $4.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 15%, with core EPS projected at $0.66 to $0.70 [10] - The Springboard growth plan's annual sales target was raised from $8 billion to $11 billion by the end of 2028, with internal plans for 2026 increased from $6 billion to $6.5 billion [10] - A significant partnership with Meta, valued at up to $6 billion, is expected to drive future growth in data center technologies [10]

Core Insights - The focus of Wall Street is shifting towards "remaining performance obligations," a metric indicating future sales backlog from long-term contracts in the cloud computing sector, as companies like Microsoft and Amazon report earnings [1][2] - The surge in long-term commitments from AI companies to cloud service providers is reshaping the competitive landscape of the cloud market, with Microsoft surpassing Amazon in new order backlog [1][3] - Concerns arise regarding the actual realization of these sales commitments, highlighted by Oracle's case where a significant increase in backlog did not translate to stock price gains due to doubts about profitability and execution [1][6] Group 1: Remaining Performance Obligations - "Remaining performance obligations" is gaining attention as a financial metric that reflects future sales from long-term contracts, particularly in the context of AI companies making substantial commitments to cloud providers [2] - Analysts note that when order backlog diverges from revenue growth, it becomes a critical indicator for investors to monitor [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Amazon, while still holding the largest market share in cloud computing, has fallen behind Microsoft in terms of new order backlog since the launch of ChatGPT, with Google also emerging as a strong competitor [3] - Google's advancements in AI technology have allowed it to attract significant business from AI companies, altering the competitive dynamics in the cloud market [3] Group 3: Concerns Over Backlog Data - The data on order backlog has limitations, as different companies may have varying accounting methods, which can affect the comparability of the figures [4] - There are concerns about the reliability of these commitments, especially given past instances where companies renegotiated contracts to defer spending [4][5] Group 4: Oracle's Warning - Oracle's experience serves as a cautionary tale, where a massive increase in order backlog did not lead to positive market reactions due to skepticism about the profitability and realization of those contracts [6] - The market's response to the latest commitments from Microsoft, Amazon, and Google will be crucial in assessing investor sentiment regarding potential AI bubbles [6]