量子计算对比特币的威胁正在从理论走向现实。Coinbase首席研究员发出警告，约33%的比特币供应面临量子风险，而Jefferies全球股票策略主管则已将比特 币从投资组合中完全剔除，转向黄金配置。这一变化正在重塑机构投资者对比特币的态度。 据媒体最新报道，Coinbase全球投资研究主管David Duong警告称，约32.7%的比特币供应量面临潜在的量子计算攻击风险，涉及约651万枚比特币。 Jefferies策略主管Christopher Wood也在1月16日的分析专栏中宣布，将其投资组合模型中10%的比特币头寸悉数清仓，转而配置5%实物黄金和5%黄金矿业 股。他解释称，量子计算的出现可能在未来几年而非十年以上实现突破，这会动摇比特币作为"可靠价值储存手段"的根基。 量子计算机利用先进物理学原理，其运算速度远超传统计算机，最终可能破解保护比特币钱包的加密算法。据加密货币安全研究机构Project 11的数据，近 70%的脆弱比特币来自地址重复使用，这会暴露可被量子计算机利用的安全信息。 市场已开始反映这一担忧。比特币今年以来相对黄金下跌6.5%，而黄金同期上涨55%。比特币兑黄金比率在2026年1月降 ...

特朗普在达沃斯世界经济论坛期间举行的私人招待会上，让100多位全球顶级企业高管站立等候超过一 小时。 1月22日，据华尔街日报消息，这场原定当地时间周三（1月21日）下午5点开始的活动直到6点半后才迎 来主角，现场没有提供座椅，包括英伟达CEO黄仁勋、苹果CEO库克和贝莱德CEO芬克在内的商界领 袖只能在高桌旁站立等待。 报道指出，由于行程紧张且当晚还有其他重要晚宴，部分高管对延迟表示不满。摩根大通CEO戴蒙因 需出席自家公司在基尔希纳博物馆的活动，在特朗普抵达前就已离场。美国银行CEO莫伊尼汉（Brian Moynihan）则未出席此次招待会。 特朗普在约15分钟的讲话中涉及美国经济、委内瑞拉政权更迭等多个议题，并点名表扬了包括库克在内 的多位高管。他还称"有时你需要一个独裁者"，随后补充说自己的治理风格是"常识"。白宫发言人回应 称，特朗普的批评者会毫无根据地称他为独裁者，但总统所做的一切都基于常识和国家利益。 这是自2020年以来首次有在任美国总统出席达沃斯世界经济论坛。据华尔街见闻此前文章提及，特朗普 在当天早些时候发表的公开演讲被视为缓和了与欧洲国家在格陵兰问题上的冲突。他在当天的招待会上 表示对演 ...

Market Overview - Geopolitical concerns have eased, and strong U.S. economic data has boosted risk appetite, leading to a second consecutive day of gains for major U.S. stock indices, fully recovering earlier losses this week [2] - Small-cap indices have outperformed the S&P for the 15th consecutive day, reaching new highs [2] - The tech giants saw significant gains, with Meta rising 5.6% and Tesla over 4% [2] - Strong U.S. economic data has reduced interest rate cut expectations, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising by 2.5 basis points [2] - The dollar fell by 0.5%, approaching the 98 mark [2] - Cryptocurrencies declined, with Bitcoin down 1.13% and Ethereum down 2.7% [2] - Precious metals performed well under a weak dollar, with spot gold rising 1.8% to surpass $4900, and silver and platinum also reaching historical highs [2] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.6 million barrels, leading to a 2% drop in oil prices [2] Key News - Pan Gongsheng stated that there is still room for further reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, emphasizing the flexible use of various monetary policy tools [11] - The U.S. November PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, with personal spending showing steady growth, although the savings rate has declined [12] - Germany's Chancellor Merz emphasized the importance of maintaining transatlantic relations amid changing U.S. policies under Trump [13] - Nordic pension funds are accelerating their exit from U.S. markets, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. assets due to geopolitical and fiscal risks [14] - Reports suggest that the U.S. is attempting to "overthrow the Cuban regime" by cutting off oil supplies from Venezuela to Cuba [14] - Major U.S. banks are considering launching credit cards with interest rates as high as 10% in response to Trump's proposals [15] Company Developments - Alibaba is reportedly planning to spin off its chip subsidiary, Pingtouge, for an independent IPO, leading to a more than 7% increase in its stock price [4] - The demand for storage is surging, with Kioxia confirming that its production capacity for this year is fully sold out [17] - AI and storage cycles are resonating, with Zhaoyi Innovation expecting a 25% year-on-year revenue increase and a 46% rise in net profit by 2025 [6] - Anthropic has lowered its gross margin guidance due to rising inference costs, despite a 12-fold increase in revenue [24] - Samsung and SK Hynix are set to report their earnings, with both companies expected to achieve record profits [24] Industry Insights - The AI chip market is witnessing significant developments, with Alibaba's Pingtouge making strides in AI processor technology [32] - The solid-state battery sector is gaining attention, with A123 set to unveil a new series of products based on semi-solid immersion technology [27] - The retail pharmacy industry is expected to undergo consolidation, with government support for mergers and acquisitions [29] - The passive components market is entering a new price increase cycle, with major manufacturers announcing price hikes [29]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 英特尔四季度数据中心和AI营收47.4亿美元，预期44.2亿美元。 预计一季度营收117亿-127亿美元，分 析师预期125.6亿美元。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

据新华社报道，特朗普22日周四在瑞士达沃斯接受采访时称，美国正就格陵兰岛问题相关细节进行谈 判，美方将取得对格陵兰岛的"全面准入权限"，这一权限意味着美国可以在该地区"部署我们需要的任 何东西"，但美国不会为此支付任何费用，因为"我们谈论的是国家安全和国际安全"。特朗普补充称， 美国要在格陵兰部署"金穹"导弹防御系统，这是美方唯一的付出。 而另据新华社，格陵兰自治政府总理延斯-弗雷德里克·尼尔森周四表示，格陵兰选择丹麦王国，选择欧 盟和北约。尼尔森强调，格陵兰的主权和领土完整是"红线"，任何涉及格陵兰的协议都必须在尊重国际 法的基础上、由格陵兰和丹麦参与协商。 在美国总统特朗普撤回对欧洲盟友的关税威胁后，欧洲议会预计将重启对欧美贸易协议的表决程序，这 标志着因格陵兰问题一度陷入停滞的跨大西洋贸易关系出现转机。与此同时，格陵兰自治政府总理强调 主权不可谈判的立场，凸显这场地缘政治博弈仍存在重大分歧。 欧洲议会议长梅措拉1月22日周四在布鲁塞尔表示，特朗普的立场转变足以支持就欧美协议进行表决， 初步投票可能在未来几天内举行。议会批准是欧盟使该贸易协定生效所需的最后一步。此前一天，议员 们刚刚决定无限期暂停批准进程 ...

苹果公司扩大了硬件工程主管John Ternus的职责范围，让其负责设计团队管理工作，这进一步巩固了他 作为CEO库克潜在继任者的地位。 1月22日，据彭博社援引知情人士透露，库克去年底悄然任命John Ternus管理公司设计团队，这使得 Ternus的职责扩展至硬件与软件设计监督。 这些职责在苹果公司具有特殊意义，长期以来一直由一位资深领导者承担。自史蒂夫·乔布斯时代以 来，公司的成功始终与其产品的外观和用户体验息息相关。 即便发生了人事变动，苹果内部也没有任何迹象表明库克即将卸任。即便库克最终退休，预计仍将继续 担任董事长一职。 苹果本月告知股东，现任董事长阿特·莱文森将在公司2月份的股东大会之后继续留任，尽管他已年满75 岁，达到董事通常的退休年龄。这意味着董事长更迭至少要等到2027年才会发生。 设计职权的战略意义 在苹果内部，设计监督职责历来由高级领导者担任。 该岗位曾由乔布斯的长期设计合作伙伴Jony Ive担任至2019年离职。库克本人曾在2015年至2017年期间 监督设计工作，当时Ive暂时退出该职位。 据报道援引知情人士透露，Ternus现在被内部定位为库克管理团队中所有设计工作的"执行 ...

Optimus机器人推进时间表明确 马斯克对Optimus人形机器人的商业化时间表给出了更具体的说法。他表示，对公众销售将在特斯拉确 信机器人具备"极高可靠性、极高安全性以及极高功能范围"时启动，届时用户可以"基本要求它做几乎 任何你想做的事"。 特斯拉目前已在工厂中使用部分Optimus机器人执行基础任务。马斯克预测，到2026年底，这些机器人 将能够"执行更复杂的任务"。 特斯拉CEO马斯克在达沃斯世界经济论坛上勾勒出一幅涵盖人形机器人、自动驾驶、太空探索和人工智 能（AI）的宏大蓝图，他预测AI最快将在今年底超越人类智能，而特斯拉的人形机器人Optimus最早将 于明年底面向公众销售。 当地时间1月22日周四，马斯克现身达沃斯论坛，与贝莱德CEO芬克展开对话。他透露特斯拉已在工厂 中部署部分Optimus机器人执行简单任务，并预计到今年底这些机器人将能处理更复杂的工作。马斯克 表示，如果特斯拉对机器人的可靠性、安全性和功能范围充满信心，到明年底，将启动公开销售。 马斯克在谈话中还表示，特斯拉的自动驾驶出租车服务Robotaxi今年有望在美国大规模部署，已经开始 在得州奥斯汀提供没有设置车内安全监督员的R ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group is preparing to advance the independent listing of its AI chip subsidiary, Pingtouge, which has been described as a "hidden weapon" for the company, amidst a wave of IPOs in the AI chip market [1][4][6]. Group 1: Alibaba's IPO Plans - Alibaba's stock rose by 4.6% following the news of Pingtouge's potential IPO, reaching a high of $181.1, marking a significant increase in market capitalization by nearly $29.7 billion (approximately ¥207 billion) [1]. - The IPO plan is still in the early stages, with internal restructuring of Pingtouge's chip business to create an employee-owned entity before exploring the IPO [5]. - The specific timeline for the IPO remains uncertain, and the potential valuation of Pingtouge is not yet clear [5]. Group 2: Market Context and Competitors - The potential IPO aligns with a trend of increasing interest in AI chip companies, as seen with Baidu's Kunlun chip, which aims to raise up to $2 billion in its IPO [4][11]. - Other competitors in the AI chip space, such as Moore Threads and domestic GPU companies, have also attracted strong investor interest, indicating a robust market for Chinese chip manufacturers [4][12]. Group 3: Pingtouge's Technology and Market Position - Pingtouge, established in September 2018, focuses on AI chips and RISC-V technology, and has been recognized for its significant advancements in chip performance [7]. - The latest Pingtouge AI chip, PPU, has been reported to outperform Nvidia's A800 and is comparable to the H20, showcasing its competitive edge in the market [7][8]. - Pingtouge has launched several AI chip series and has achieved significant deployment in Alibaba Cloud, indicating a strong market presence [8]. Group 4: Strategic Importance of AI Chips - The potential listing of Pingtouge is a crucial part of Alibaba's broader AI strategy, which aims to compete with leading AI companies like OpenAI [9]. - Alibaba's commitment to investing at least ¥380 billion (over $53 billion) in cloud computing and AI infrastructure over the next three years underscores its strategic focus on AI chip development [10]. - The listing of Pingtouge is seen as the final piece in Alibaba's comprehensive AI stack, which includes chip design, cloud computing, and AI applications [9].

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 美国总统特朗普就"去银行化"问题起诉摩根大通及其CEO戴蒙。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The conflict between the White House and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is fundamentally a power struggle over policy control rather than merely a debate about central bank independence [1] - The Trump administration aims to lower interest rates to 1% to mask the growing sovereign debt risk and maintain asset bubbles, facilitating a hidden transfer of wealth through financial repression [1] - The Federal Reserve has become a key institution that can still check presidential power, especially as the influence of Congress and public institutions has weakened [1] Group 2: Historical Context of Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence became a widely accepted concept only recently, with New Zealand's 1990 legislation establishing an inflation-targeting framework being a significant milestone [2] - The historical context of central bank independence is rooted in the high inflation periods of the 1970s and 1980s, where governments delegated tough policy decisions to central banks to avoid political backlash [2] - There are ongoing debates about the theoretical basis and practical effectiveness of central bank independence, particularly regarding conflicting policy goals and limited control over key economic variables [2] Group 3: Limitations and Critiques of Central Banks - Central banks' reliance on core analytical models like NAIRU and the Phillips curve has faced criticism for their predictive effectiveness in real-world scenarios [3] - The decision-making bodies of central banks often consist of economists with similar academic backgrounds, which may limit the diversity and effectiveness of policy-making [3] - Historical performance of central banks has been questioned, particularly regarding their responses to economic crises and the long-term effects of their policies on asset bubbles and social inequality [4] Group 4: Political Motivations and Wealth Transfer - Trump's strategy involves appointing Federal Reserve governors who support his interest rate policies, aiming to obscure sovereign debt pressures and sustain market bubbles [6] - Lowering interest rates allows the government to continue expansionary fiscal policies, benefiting political and business supporters while diluting debt burdens through negative real interest rates [6] - This approach mirrors Trump's previous business strategies, characterized by high leverage and risk-taking, suggesting a continuity in his operational mindset [6] Group 5: Power Balance and Democratic Accountability - The debate over central bank independence reflects a restructuring of power balance within the U.S. political system, with the Federal Reserve serving as a critical check on executive power [7] - There is a growing populist sentiment favoring low interest rates and high growth, alongside increasing skepticism towards technocratic elites and their decision-making processes [7] - The surface-level discussion about central bank independence masks deeper issues of power distribution, democratic accountability, and institutional checks within the political economy [7]