w 华尔街见闻 | 时间 | 内容 | 预期 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | | 12月15日 周一 | | | | 10:00 数据 | 中国 1至11月全国房地产开发投资 | -14.7% | | 10:00 | 中国 11月规模以上工业增加值同比 | 4.9% | | 10:00 | 中国 11月社会消费品零售总额同比 | 2.9% | | 09:30 事件 | 国家统计局公布11月70城房价 | | | 待定 | 日央行或发布季度短观经济调查报告 | | | 待定 | 超级央行周继续:日欧、英国、瑞典等利率决议 | | | 待定 | 应对AI缺电,英伟达即将举办相关主题峰会 | | | 23:30 | 美联储理事米兰、FOMC永久票委威廉姆斯等将发表讲话 | | | 12月16日 周二 | | | | 17:00 数据 | 欧元区 12月制造业PMI初值 | 49.6 | | 21:30 | 美国 11月失业率 | 4.4% | | 21:30 | 美国 11月非农就业人口变动(万人) | 5 | | 22:45 | 美国 12月标普全球制造业PMI初值 | 52.2 | | 事件 ...

一份来自华尔街的最新展望报告颠覆了传统认知，指出2026年美国经济面临的最大威胁可能源自金融市场本身。 根据投资研究机构BCA Research的最新展望，2026年投资者面临的核心风险已经发生反转：不再是经济衰退拖垮股市，而是股市的潜在崩 盘可能直接将美国经济推入衰退。这一观点挑战了市场的普遍看法，并指出美国经济的韧性正悬于一个由股市财富支撑的脆弱平衡之上。 BCA Research在报告中明确指出，当前美国经济的一个关键支撑来自于约250万"超额退休"人群的消费支出。这部分人群因新冠疫情后的 股市繁荣而提前退休，他们的消费能力与股市表现直接挂钩，形成了一个"对股市敏感"的需求侧。 报告分析，这种结构性变化给美联储带来了棘手的两难。一方面，这批高技能退休人员的离场加剧了劳动力短缺，使通胀顽固地维持在 3%左右；另一方面，若为抑制通胀而维持高利率，则可能刺破股市泡沫，摧毁这部分关键消费，从而引发经济衰退。 因此，BCA Research预测，美联储将把避免市场崩盘置于其2%通胀目标之上，选择容忍更高的通胀率，并可能在任何经济或市场疲软的 迹象出现时采取激进的降息措施。这一政策路径，叠加史上最集中的市场涨势，为 ...

见闻财经目历 WSCN Economic Calendar w 华尔街见闻 | 时间 | 内容 | 预期 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | | 12月15日 周一 | | | | 10:00 数据 | 中国 1至11月全国房地产开发投资 | -14.7% | | 10:00 | 中国 11月规模以上工业增加值同比 | 4.9% | | 10:00 | 中国 11月社会消费品零售总额同比 | 2.9% | | 09:30 事件 | 国家统计局公布11月70城房价 | | | 待定 | 日央行或发布季度短观经济调查报告 | | | 待定 | 超级央行周继续:日欧、英国、瑞典等利率决议 | | | 待定 | 应对AI缺电,英伟达即将举办相关主题峰会 | | | 23:30 | 美联储理事米兰、FOMC永久票委威廉姆斯等将发表讲话 | | | 12月16日 周二 | | | | 17:00 数据 | 欧元区 12月制造业PMI初值 | 49.6 | | 21:30 | 美国 11月失业率 | 4.4% | | 21:30 | 美国 11月非农就业人口变动(万人) | 5 | | 22:45 | 美国 ...

周日，TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Stephen Blitz撰文指出，美联储即将迎来一场巨大的颠覆。随着财 政部与美联储的界限日益模糊，两大机构的资产负债表实际上正在走向"合并"，而财政部长贝森特在这 一新架构中扮演关键角色，成为实质上的"影子联储主席"。 Blitz表示，美联储最新的政策信号表明，其正在重启资产负债表购买操作，计划于1月开始购买400亿美 元的国库券并在2月进一步增加。尽管官方说法是为应对总账户（TGA）在4月的膨胀及管理货币市场 利率，但这一举措的实质是美联储承诺为财政部支出提供融资保障，确保存款机构融资不会出现利率波 动。 这一转变不仅意味着美联储将平抑市场波动，更标志着市场向政府发出的"支出超载"信号将失效。在这 种架构下，未来的政策协调将更加紧密，贝森特将拥有巨大的话语权。随着Kevin Hassett 等潜在继任者 可能进入美联储，一条通往白宫、经由贝森特运作的"直接汇报线"正在形成，这将使得财政部能够主导 融资策略，即通过向短端注入流动性来压低融资成本。 贝森特和特朗普所期望的是廉价的融资成本——即通过淹没短端市场并限制长端发行来实现。美联储宣 布购买短端资产正是为了配合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global trend of monetary policy easing is nearing its end, with developed economies showing a clear trend of "braking" in their monetary policies, leading to increased uncertainty in the markets for the upcoming year [1]. Group 1: Central Bank Decisions - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.75% in its upcoming meeting, marking its first rate hike since January [2]. - The Bank of England (BOE) is anticipated to lower interest rates, which may be one of the last moves in its current easing cycle, indicating a shift in its policy focus [3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its current interest rates, with market attention on any hints of a potential shift towards tightening [3]. Group 2: Divergence in Monetary Policies - Developed economies are gradually halting their rate cuts, while emerging markets continue to pursue easing measures, creating a complex global monetary policy landscape [6]. - In Asia, the Bank of Thailand is expected to cut rates, while there is uncertainty regarding the Bank of Indonesia's actions [6]. - In Latin America, central banks in Chile and Mexico are expected to lower rates, contrasting with Colombia's decision to maintain its rate due to better-than-expected inflation reports [6]. Group 3: Future Implications - The divergence in monetary policies is likely to reshape global capital flows and asset pricing, with the potential for the U.S. Federal Reserve to find itself acting alone if it continues to cut rates while others do not [1][4]. - The anticipated continued easing by the Federal Reserve may lead to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar, especially as other central banks maintain or increase their rates [7].

Core Insights - The AI-driven market enthusiasm faced a harsh reality check following negative news from chip giant Broadcom and cloud service provider Oracle, leading to a significant sell-off in AI-related stocks [1][7][11] - Broadcom's stock plummeted by 12%, dragging down both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices by over 1%, while Oracle's shares fell by more than 4% [1][3] Market Impact - The sell-off quickly spread to the entire AI supply chain, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping by 5%, marking its worst single-day performance in nearly two months [3] - Major tech stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven" (Mag7), underperformed compared to the other 493 companies in the S&P 500, indicating widespread market panic [5] Company-Specific Developments - Broadcom reported record sales of $18 billion but failed to meet Wall Street's high expectations for AI business revenue forecasts, leading to an 11% drop in its stock price [7][8] - Oracle's disappointing earnings report and news of potential delays in data center construction for OpenAI raised concerns about the pace of AI infrastructure development, resulting in a 4.5% decline in its stock price [11][13] Broader Market Reactions - The sell-off affected not only tech stocks but also energy-related stocks, indicating a broader market impact [15] - Bond market reactions included a significant increase in yield premiums for Oracle's bonds, reflecting reduced investor confidence in the AI sector [16] Investor Sentiment - The market's reaction highlights the critical importance of AI narratives, raising questions about investor patience regarding promised AI returns [8][18] - Some analysts view the current anxiety over AI valuations and spending as a healthy caution signal, suggesting potential for further market growth [18]

这一变动的直接催化剂来自两个层面。首先，美国总统特朗普周五表示，他正在"两个Kevin"——即Kevin Warsh与白宫国家经济委员会主任 Kevin Hassett——之间倾向于选择鲍威尔的继任者。其次，周四华尔街最有权势的银行家之一、摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙在纽约的一场私密资产管 理CEO会议上明确表态：支持沃什执掌美联储。 特朗普圈定"两个Kevin" 摩根大通CEO戴蒙公开喊话"沃什将成为一位'伟大的主席'"后，这位前美联储理事正迅速成为下一届美联储主席的有力竞争者，他在预测市场的 获胜概率大幅飙升。 截至周六的最新数据显示，在Kalshi和Polymarket两个预测市场上，沃什被提名的概率分别跃升了17和24个百分点。这一显著变化表明，市场对 于美联储未来领导层构成的预期正在发生重大转变。 Kalshi预测市场的数据则更为直观，沃什与另一位热门人选哈塞特的获胜概率呈现此消彼长的态势，沃什获胜概率正在直线飙升，几乎就快追平 哈塞特；而后者正在直线下降，不过其50%的获胜概率仍然领先全场。 这表明，尽管沃什的胜算显著提高，但哈塞特的领先地位目前还算稳固。 此外，特朗普还认为下一任美联储主席应就利率政 ...

忠诚度与专业性的权衡 这种担忧在华尔街并非个例。多位掌管着30万亿美元美债市场的资深投资者，已直接向财政部官员表达 了对哈赛特政治倾向的顾虑，质疑其与特朗普过于紧密的政治结盟可能动摇货币政策的公信力。 周四，华尔街最有权势的银行家之一、摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙在纽约的一场私密资产管理CEO会议上 明确表态：支持前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）执掌美联储。 特朗普一直对现任主席鲍威尔（Jay Powell）不仅未大幅降息反而加息的做法耿耿于怀，甚至曾私下辱 骂其为"笨蛋"。特朗普明确表示，忠诚度和积极降息的意愿是他选人的关键标准。 戴蒙直言，沃什将成为一位"伟大的主席"，并向在场的华尔街高管们发出警告：另一位热门候选人凯文 ·哈赛特（Kevin Hassett）可能更顺从白宫的降息意愿，但这恰恰可能引发市场的反向博弈，导致长期借 贷成本不降反升，损害美联储至关重要的独立性。 戴蒙的警告：短端听命总统，长端听命市场 据英国《金融时报》报道，戴蒙在闭门会议中分析指出，若哈赛特当选，他极有可能会迅速降低短期利 率，以配合特朗普的经济诉求。然而，美联储只能控制短端利率，长期利率（如10年期美债收益率）则 ...

今年全球最大的一笔"股票发行"，并没有发生在纽约证交所，也不在纳斯达克的大屏幕上。而是一场仅 对不到50位"被点名"的投资者开放的私募交易。 OpenAI今年完成了一轮高达400亿美元的私募融资，规模不仅碾压今年所有IPO，甚至比历史上最大IPO 还要高出100多亿美元。但这场资本盛宴，与绝大多数美国散户毫无关系——参与者包括软银、黑石、 Coatue，以及OpenAI CEO Sam Altman本人。 "最快增长"发生在IPO前，私募交易热催生巨无霸私企 过去，上市曾是科技公司发展的重要分水岭。企业通过IPO募集资金、扩大规模，而公众投资者则得以 在早期分享成长红利。但这一模式正在发生根本性变化。 一个被反复提及、却仍被低估的事实是：美国上市公司数量，已经较1990年代末的高点腰斩。在互联网 泡沫顶峰时期，美国资本市场上曾有超过8000家上市公司；而如今，这一数字只有当年的一半左右。 与此同时，企业上市的时间被一再推迟。数据显示，2000年企业IPO的中位"年龄"只有6年，而现在已 拉长到14年。 换句话说，当一家企业终于走向公开市场时，它往往已经完成了最陡峭的一段增长曲线。 等普通投资者终于能在二级市场 ...

Core Insights - Apollo Global Management is significantly reducing its exposure to the software industry due to concerns over AI disrupting business models [1][4] - The firm has engaged in short-selling strategies targeting several software companies owned by private equity firms [2][4] - Apollo aims to lower its credit fund's software exposure to below 10% of net assets, down from approximately 20% [3][4] Group 1: Short-Selling Strategy - Apollo's short-selling targets include software companies like Internet Brands, SonicWall, and Perforce, which are backed by large private equity firms [2] - Despite a sell-off in credit bonds earlier this year, these bonds are still trading above 80% of face value, indicating no immediate default fears [2] - The short positions represent less than 1% of Apollo's $700 billion credit asset portfolio and are partly used as market hedging [2] Group 2: Risk Exposure Reduction - Apollo's CEO, Marc Rowan, has communicated to investors that the firm's risk exposure to software companies has been cut nearly in half as they approach 2025 [2][3] - The company has conducted a comprehensive review of software firms to assess potential risks posed by AI [3] Group 3: Concerns Over AI Disruption - Apollo believes that AI's capabilities in automating coding, customer service, and routine financial tasks threaten the survival of many software companies [4] - The firm acknowledges that while AI may present opportunities for some software companies, it has chosen to avoid directional bets in the industry [4] - Blackstone's president has also warned about underestimating the risks of technological disruption, particularly in rule-based businesses [4] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Historical valuation bubbles in the software sector, exacerbated by a surge in leveraged buyouts (LBOs) from 2020 to 2021, have made high-priced assets particularly vulnerable [5] - With many private credit funds still holding 25% to 33% of their assets in software companies, the potential for a market shake-up due to AI could have significant ripple effects [5] Group 5: Market Reassessment - Apollo's actions may signal the beginning of a broader reassessment of credit markets in response to technological changes [6]