Core Viewpoint - Despite facing challenges such as early elections, a weak yen, and rising long-term interest rates, Japanese stocks still have room for growth by the end of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The core conclusion indicates that as long as the USD/JPY exchange rate does not exceed 165 and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield remains below 3%, the upward trend of Japanese stocks is likely to remain unchanged [2] - The upcoming early election on February 8 will significantly influence short-term market reactions, but expectations of fiscal stimulus and political stability point towards a stock market rise by the end of the year [3] Group 2: Currency and Interest Rate Thresholds - The critical threshold for the yen is set at 165, where excessive depreciation could harm unhedged investors' asset values and hinder real wage growth [4] - The 10-year government bond yield at 3% is a key pressure point for the financial system and stock valuations, particularly affecting regional financial institutions [8] Group 3: Scenarios and Predictions - In a baseline scenario where the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secures a majority, the Nikkei index may remain flat or slightly decline post-election but is expected to rebound, targeting 57,000 points by the end of 2026 [5] - In a weak scenario where the LDP fails to secure a majority, the market may initially drop to around 52,000 points but could recover to 55,000 points by year-end due to fiscal expansion policies [5] - In a strong scenario where the LDP achieves a stable majority, the Nikkei index could immediately surpass 56,000 points post-election and reach over 60,000 points by year-end [5] Group 4: Risk and Support Dynamics - The sensitivity of Japanese corporate profits to exchange rates has decreased, with the beta coefficient dropping from 1.0 to 0.6, indicating reduced responsiveness to currency fluctuations [5] - If the 10-year JGB yield rises to the 3.0%-3.5% range, regional banks may face capital adequacy issues, potentially leading to forced selling of stocks to bolster capital [10] - Domestic institutional investors possess significant potential for capital repatriation, which could stabilize the market as domestic yields rise [10]

日本央行行长植田和男：若经济形势如预期般发展，我们将继续提高利率。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

值得注意的是，据新华社报道，世界贸易组织总干事伊维拉22日在瑞士达沃斯强烈抨击当前全球贸易保 护主义抬头的情况，呼吁各方通过对话解决纠纷。 分析人士指出，这场晚宴交锋预示着，在特朗普新政府领导下，美国可能推动全球经济治理框架的重大 转向，而这一转向在商界和政界精英中的接受度可能超出外界预期。 美国商务部长卢特尼克在达沃斯世界经济论坛的一场私人晚宴上对全球主义发起猛烈抨击，宣称这一意 识形态已经"死亡"，并直指其对美国中产阶级造成的伤害。这场由贝莱德首席执行官芬克（Larry Fink）主办的精英晚宴，成为新旧经济秩序理念激烈碰撞的现场。 全球主义遭遇正面挑战 1月22日，据媒体报道，卢特尼克的演讲聚焦于全球主义如何掏空美国社区、欧洲监管过度阻碍增长， 以及欧盟能源政策的矛盾性。这些言论标志着特朗普政府对战后国际经济秩序的公开质疑，可能预示全 球贸易和监管框架面临重大调整。 据报道，在这场有数百人受邀参加的周二晚宴上，卢特尼克对全球主义——这一将全球关切置于国家利 益之上的意识形态——进行了尖锐批评。 报道指出，据知情人士透露，尽管美国前副总统戈尔对卢特尼克的言论表示强烈不满，但在场的多数华 尔街和政府高层实际 ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon is planning a new round of large-scale layoffs, expected to affect thousands of jobs as part of a broader plan to optimize its workforce of approximately 30,000 corporate employees [1][2] Group 1: Layoff Details - The layoffs are anticipated to be similar in scale to the first round of layoffs in October last year, which affected about 14,000 white-collar positions [1][2] - The affected departments include Amazon Web Services (AWS), retail, Prime Video, and human resources [1][2] - If the target of 30,000 layoffs is fully implemented, it would represent nearly 10% of Amazon's total corporate workforce [1][2] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The layoffs highlight ongoing adjustments within large tech companies as they seek efficiency and respond to technological changes [1][2] - The current plan exceeds the previous record of approximately 27,000 positions cut in 2022, marking the largest layoff action in Amazon's 30-year history [2] Group 3: Reasons Behind Layoffs - Management's statements regarding the reasons for the layoffs show complexity; while AI was linked to the first round of layoffs, CEO Andy Jassy clarified that the current layoffs are not primarily driven by financial or AI factors but rather by cultural issues within the company [3] - Jassy indicated that there is excessive bureaucracy within the organization, leading to an increase in personnel and layers of management [3] - Despite downplaying AI's direct role in the layoffs, the trend of using AI to replace human labor is becoming irreversible, with companies increasingly automating tasks to reduce costs [3] Group 4: Previous Layoff Progress - The current layoff plan is being executed in phases, with the first round's affected employees given a 90-day transition period to seek internal or external opportunities [4] - This transition period for the first round of layoffs is set to end soon, after which the second round of layoffs will commence [4]

日本央行维持利率不变后，日元延续跌势，策略师们普遍认为央行释放的鹰派信号力度不足以扭转日元疲软态势。市场焦点已转向4月可能的加息 行动，但在美联储会议前，投资者对日元的观望情绪浓厚。 1月23日，日本央行如期维持基准利率在三十年高位不变，决议公布后日元对美元一度跌0.2%至158.74。央行正在评估上月加息对经济的影响。 决议略显鹰派，日元仍承压 日本央行此次维持利率不变符合市场预期，但决议声明的细节变化引发策略师们对政策走向的解读。 汇丰控股首席亚洲经济学家Frederic Neumann表示，日央行上调通胀预测暗示官员立场的鹰派倾斜。通过提高通胀预期，货币政策官员表达了对物 价前景的更大信心，这反过来应会强化进一步加息的理由。他指出，日本债券市场和汇率将受益于更强的货币政策锚定，日央行的鹰派倾斜将大 大有助于遏制波动性。 野村证券外汇策略师Yujiro Goto认为，日央行货币政策会议的沟通方式意在传递对4月加息的意识。在此次会议前，市场已完全消化了7月前的加 息预期。尽管决议显示鹰派，但在新闻发布会前，日元贬值压力仍在酝酿。 Minato Bank策略师Shogo Karitani指出，声明中增加了汇率 ...

Core Insights - The AI code platform Claude Code has successfully migrated NVIDIA's CUDA code to AMD's ROCm platform within half an hour, showcasing the potential of generative AI in breaking down computational ecosystem barriers [1] - This case has raised market concerns that it may weaken NVIDIA's long-standing technological moat built around CUDA [3] Group 1: Migration Process - A user reported that the only issue encountered during the migration was the "data layout" difference [4] - Claude Code operates using an intelligent agent framework that can smartly replace CUDA keywords with their ROCm counterparts while maintaining the underlying logic of specific kernels [4] - The tool simplifies the migration process, allowing developers to complete the work directly through a command-line interface without needing to configure complex conversion environments like Hipify [4] Group 2: Limitations and Challenges - The user did not specify the exact type of codebase processed, but the design of ROCm mimics several aspects of NVIDIA's CUDA platform, making simple code migration relatively easy for AI tools [5] - Industry experts believe that the real challenge lies in migrating complex, interrelated codebases, which require the intelligent agent system to understand a significant amount of contextual information for effective conversion to ROCm [5] - There are concerns that Claude Code may struggle with deep hardware optimizations, particularly regarding specific cache hierarchies, limiting its practicality in high-performance computing scenarios [6]

Core Insights - The storage sector is experiencing a "perfect storm," with SanDisk's stock price increasing over 100%, driven by a value reassessment triggered by advancements in AI architecture [1][11] - Storage is transitioning from a cost item to a core production element for AI, as evidenced by developments from NVIDIA and DeepSeek [1][10] Group 1: Technological Developments - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang introduced the concept of Inference Context Memory Storage (ICMS) at CES 2026, highlighting that context is becoming a new bottleneck for AI rather than computing power [2][3] - The new DGX Vera Rubin NVL72 SuperPOD architecture includes dedicated storage racks for inference context, significantly increasing NAND requirements [2][3] - DeepSeek's Engram model allows NAND to be used as slow memory, enabling deterministic memory access and reducing latency issues compared to HBM [4][5][8] Group 2: Market Implications - The global NAND market, with an annual demand of approximately 1.1–1.2 ZB, is expected to see nearly 10% structural growth driven by AI infrastructure rather than traditional consumer electronics [3][11] - NAND's role is evolving from merely cold data storage to being integrated into a tiered memory system, acting as "slow RAM" for AI applications [8][9] - The combination of BlueField DPU and NAND offers a cost-effective solution for long-term memory needs in AI agents, decoupling storage demand from traditional computing resources [9][10] Group 3: Strategic Value of NAND - The strategic value of NAND is being re-evaluated as it becomes indispensable in AI architectures, leading to a potential shift in pricing logic [11] - Analysts suggest that the developments in NAND technology represent a path to achieving more efficient storage-computing collaboration, which may be more cost-effective than merely expanding computing power [8][9][11]

（韩国综指保持强势涨0.9%） 分析认为欧美贸易战警报的暂时解除，显著提振了全球投资者的风险偏好，并加速了一场潜在的、更深层次的资产轮动。 由于对美国政策不可预测性的担忧，资金正逐步从估值高企的美国资产中流出，转向估值更具吸引力且地缘政治风险相对较远的亚洲市场。这一 轮动直接导致美元走弱，并为亚太股市和贵金属等资产提供了强劲的上行动能。 Natixis IM Solutions全球市场策略主管Mabrouk Chetouane表示： （三星电子上涨1.7%） 日经225指数上涨0.34%，澳大利亚S&P/ASX 200指数一度上涨0.45%。值得注意的是，前一日刚刚历史性突破5000点大关的韩国综合股指继续保 持强势，盘中一度涨至1.4%。 亚洲地区远离美国、欧盟和拉丁美洲等地缘政治中心，这种距离就像一道屏障，使投资者能够分散对风险资产的敞口。 值得注意的是，亚洲市场的焦点将集中在日本央行的利率决议上，预计日本央行将维持政策利率在0.75%不变。此前，首相高市早苗提出的扩大 支出计划曾引发金融市场动荡，因此日本央行的政策表态将受到密切关注。 全球资金正加速拥抱估值更具吸引力且有增长韧性的亚洲市场。亚太地区股市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant differentiation as of Q4 2025, with a focus on the balance between returns, cycles, and risks rather than just the correctness of investment directions [1] Group 1: Fund Manager Insights - Fund manager Yao Zhipeng has been with Harvest Fund since 2011, focusing on growth and industry directions, and has extensive experience managing various product types [1][2] - The total scale of products managed by Yao Zhipeng is approximately 20 billion yuan, with Harvest Power Pioneer being a representative product [2] Group 2: Portfolio Composition - The top ten holdings of Harvest Power Pioneer include Ningde Times, Xinda Bio, Hunan Youneng, WuXi AppTec, O-film Tech, Zhongkuang Resources, Putailai, Nongfu Spring, Tianqi Lithium, and Xiaopeng Motors, indicating a multi-line structure [2][3] - The portfolio is built on three clear lines: 1. New energy, lithium battery, and new energy vehicle industry chain [3] 2. Pharmaceutical and innovative assets, reflecting ongoing attention to the innovative drug industry chain [3] 3. Consumer goods, with Nongfu Spring being one of the few hundred billion-level products in the food and beverage sector [4] Group 3: Market Environment Analysis - The overall market in Q4 2025 is characterized by a steady rise, with good returns in commercial aerospace, copper and aluminum commodities, chemicals, communications, and insurance, while cyclical assets have adjusted [4][5] - Yao Zhipeng expresses a cautious and neutral stance on the technology sector, highlighting the crowded nature of tech investments and the reevaluation of risks associated with AI [5][6] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Investment Strategy - The primary task for the Chinese economy in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, which will likely influence investment directions [6][7] - Long-term favored directions include new energy, new technology, new consumption, and innovative drugs, focusing on lithium batteries, embodied intelligent applications, and consumer assets that align with improving consumption [7] - Attention is also drawn to the potential for foreign capital inflow due to the appreciation of the RMB and the attractiveness of leading companies in various industries [8][9] Group 5: Portfolio Adjustment Strategy - Yao Zhipeng plans to gradually increase allocations to domestic demand and cyclical leading assets, enhancing the balance of the portfolio while dynamically adjusting based on macro and mid-level environmental changes [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Bank has reported aggressive growth in its 2025 performance, with total assets surpassing 3 trillion yuan, reflecting a strategy of "scale for growth" despite challenges in capital efficiency and earnings per share dilution [1][9]. Financial Performance - The bank achieved an operating income of 55.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.81 billion yuan, up 8.08% year-on-year [1]. - However, earnings per share declined by 3.83% to 1.76 yuan due to rapid expansion of ordinary shares, which increased from 11.068 billion shares to 12.364 billion shares, an increase of 11.71% [3][4]. Asset Growth - By the end of 2025, Nanjing Bank's total assets reached 3.022424 trillion yuan, marking a significant growth of 16.63%, which is notably aggressive among listed banks [4]. - Total deposits and loans grew by 11.67% and 13.37%, respectively, with both corporate deposits and loans exceeding 1 trillion yuan [4]. Income Structure - The bank's net interest income surged by 31.08% to 34.902 billion yuan, driven by a double-digit expansion in interest-earning assets and a structural tilt in credit allocation [5]. - Growth rates for specific loan categories included 19.49% for technology finance, 30.08% for green finance, and 17.46% for inclusive small and micro loans, all significantly outpacing overall loan growth [5]. Capital and Risk Management - Despite completing a capital increase, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio slightly decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 9.31%, indicating that the rapid asset expansion is nearing the limits of internal capital accumulation [6]. - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at a low level of 0.83%, but the provision coverage ratio fell significantly by 21.96 percentage points to 313.31%, suggesting a trade-off between profit release and risk coverage [6]. Retail Business Development - Retail customer assets under management (AUM) surpassed 1 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 100.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 21.23%, with private banking AUM growing nearly 23% [7]. - The number of mobile banking users surged by nearly 30% following the launch of version 8.0 [7]. Market Position - Nanjing Bank maintained its position as a leader in the issuance of non-financial corporate debt financing tools, with an underwriting scale exceeding 270 billion yuan, ranking first in Jiangsu Province for eight consecutive years [7]. Future Expectations - Moving forward, the market anticipates Nanjing Bank to transition from a focus on "expanding scale" to "enhancing efficiency" at this new asset milestone of 3 trillion yuan [10].