据报道，全球央行正在起草一份声明，以表达对美联储主席鲍威尔的支持，预计这份央行联合声明将以 国际清算银行（BIS）的名义发布。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming CPI data is expected to show resilience in inflation trends, potentially marking the end of the previous slowdown in price growth [1][3] - The consensus forecast for December's overall CPI and core CPI is a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, with core CPI slightly accelerating from 2.6% [1][3] Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The sticky nature of inflation supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the short term, with a low probability of rate cuts in the near future [3][12] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected decline in November's inflation data was largely influenced by technical factors, and December's data will reflect the true price levels after these distortions are removed [3][9] Monthly Data Recovery - Key focus for December's CPI data is the recovery in month-over-month growth rates, with estimates for both overall and core inflation indices expected to rise to 0.3% from November's 0.2% [4][6] - Some economists predict that core inflation may show even stronger monthly performance, potentially reaching 0.4% [4][6] Statistical Biases from Government Shutdown - The potential strength in December's data is attributed to the reversal of the "shutdown effect," which previously hindered data collection [9][10] - Two significant statistical biases from the government shutdown are identified: dual-month sampling bias and holiday discount bias, which affected November's data [10][11] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Economists anticipate noticeable rebounds in prices for hotels, airfare, and clothing, with core goods and services inflation expected to accelerate [11] - However, some analysts predict only moderate increases in owner’s equivalent rent (OER), which could help control December's inflation figures [11] Future Inflation Pressures - Inflation pressures are shifting from service-related costs to tariff-related costs, with companies increasingly looking to pass on rising input costs to consumers [11][12] - Concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on inflation are highlighted, with expectations of price increases in early 2026 [12] Federal Reserve Policy and Independence Concerns - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains in a precarious state, with inflation consistently above the 2% target [13] - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly in light of recent legal actions against its chairman [13] Market Reaction Predictions - Predictions for the upcoming CPI data suggest varying impacts on the S&P 500 index based on core CPI month-over-month rates, with different probabilities assigned to potential market movements [14][15] - The foreign exchange market is closely monitoring the data, especially the USD/JPY currency pair, which typically reacts strongly to U.S. data releases [15][18]

会议强调，广大企业家要坚守主业，加快高质量发展。立足"两个大局"，胸怀"国之大者"，在加快自身发展的同时引领行业提质增效，以优质产 品和服务在国内外市场赢得竞争优势。深耕创新，提升核心竞争力。在提升基础研究和原始创新能力方面下苦功夫，深扎底层原理和根技术，把 创新根基和底座筑牢筑实。加强自律，打造良性生态。积极参与行业规则制定和自律机制建设，自觉抵制"内卷"，促进共赢，呵护行业发展环 境，为加快推进新型工业化、建设制造强国作出更大贡献。 部相关司局、部代管基金公司负责同志参加会议。 本文来源：工信微报 风险提示及免责条款 1月13日上午，工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开第十八次制造业企业座谈会，贯彻落实党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议精 神，聚焦实现"十五五"工业经济良好开局，听取重点行业企业情况介绍和意见建议。 会议指出，当前我国工业正处于由大变强、爬坡过坎的关键阶段，在外部环境变化影响加深、内部风险挑战增多的形势下，工业经济平稳运行压 力增大。同时也要看到，我国工业经济的底盘坚实、韧性强劲，具有超大规模市场、完整产业体系、丰富人才资源等优势，长期向好的支撑条件 和基本趋势没有改变。要坚定信心 ...

Core Insights - The 34th Annual Global Strategy Conference hosted by Goldman Sachs revealed a stark contrast between macro optimism and micro caution among investors, with a strong GDP outlook but a rush towards safe-haven assets like gold and non-US markets due to geopolitical concerns [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - Investors are highly optimistic about the US economy, with over 80% expecting GDP growth to exceed 2% by 2026, a figure more optimistic than Bloomberg's consensus of 2.1% [2] - The fear of a US recession has dropped to nearly zero, with 0% of respondents anticipating a recession [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risk has emerged as the largest threat to the global economy and markets, with 65% of investors identifying it as a major concern for 2026, up from 30% the previous year [2] - Inflation risk has decreased to 12%, and trade risk has plummeted from 41% to just 4% [2] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - Despite strong economic data, investors are still eager for monetary easing, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 70 basis points by 2026, more aggressive than the current market pricing of 50 basis points [3] - 35% of investors expect the European Central Bank to lower rates, while expectations for the Bank of England are even higher at a 60 basis point cut [3] Group 4: Equity Strategies - The strategy of "buying US stocks blindly" is losing favor, with only 23% of respondents believing the US will be the best-performing region, down from 58% [4] - Emerging markets are gaining traction, with Asia (excluding Japan) being the most favored region at 38% [4] - The perception of China as a long-term investment opportunity has rebounded to 25%, up from 9% in the past two years [4] Group 5: Sector Preferences - Technology stocks remain the top choice for 31% of investors, but the advantage is narrowing [5] - 60% of investors believe the S&P 493 will outperform the "seven giants," indicating a potential shift away from crowded AI trades towards undervalued sectors [5] Group 6: Commodity Market Trends - There is a significant divide in the commodities market, reflecting investor distrust in fiat currencies and supply-demand judgments [6] - 45% of investors believe copper will be the best-performing commodity by 2026, driven by demand from AI data centers and electrification [6] - 42% of respondents expect gold prices to rise to between $5,000 and $6,000 per ounce, with 10% predicting prices above $6,000 [6] - Conversely, 54% expect Brent crude oil prices to fall below $60 per barrel, a stark increase from 5% the previous year [6]

Core Viewpoint - Leading charging pile companies are attempting to divest heavy asset operations to achieve a valuation logic that is more technology-oriented [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Wanbang Digital Energy Co., Ltd. has officially submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, initiating its IPO process [2] - The company has previously attempted to launch an IPO twice but ultimately decided to shift to the Hong Kong market [2] - Wanbang Digital is well-known in the consumer market for its electric vehicle charging operation brand "Xingxing Charging," but this business has been separated from the listing entity [2] Group 2: Business Strategy - The energy operation business under the "Xingxing Charging" brand, which includes charging station operations and energy management services, has been transferred to Jiangsu Wanbang Taiyi Technology Co., Ltd. [2] - This move indicates that Wanbang Digital will no longer hold the charging station assets familiar to C-end users, transitioning to a pure energy equipment hardware and software service provider [2] - The company aims to be perceived as a "technology company combining hardware and software," focusing on international strategic expansion rather than just a charging pile company [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Wanbang Digital achieved revenue of 3.072 billion yuan and a net profit of 305 million yuan [4] - Despite the significant consumer presence of "Xingxing Charging," it contributed less than 20% to Wanbang Digital's total revenue in both 2023 and 2024 [3] - Wanbang Digital is the largest supplier of smart charging equipment globally, with projected sales exceeding 470,000 units in 2024 [4] Group 4: Market Positioning - By shedding heavy asset operations, Wanbang Digital aims to break the market's stereotype of charging pile companies as merely "infrastructure rental" businesses [4] - The company seeks to present a narrative of being a "global energy technology leader" with higher profit margins and greater imagination [4] - The acceptance of this valuation logic by investors in the current Hong Kong market environment will depend on the company's actual ability to realize global technology output [4]

工业和信息化部印发《推动工业互联网平台高质量发展行动方案（2026—2028年）》。到2028年，工业 互联网平台高质量发展取得积极成效，"专业型+行业型+协作型"多层次平台体系持续壮大，具有一定 影响力的平台超450家；平台的要素资源连接能力大幅增强，重点平台的数据增值、模型沉淀和人工智 能开发应用能力显著提升，工业设备连接数突破1.2亿台（套）；平台普及率达到55%以上，基本建成 泛在互联、数智融合、深度协同、开源开放的新一代工业互联网平台生态。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Insights - The inflation trend in the U.S. is expected to show resilience by the end of 2025, marking a potential end to the previous slowdown in price growth [1] - The upcoming core CPI data is anticipated to reflect underlying price pressures, with both overall and core CPI expected to rise to 2.7% year-over-year [1][2] Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The sticky nature of inflation supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the short term, with market expectations indicating a low probability of rate cuts in the near future [2] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected decline in November's inflation data was largely influenced by technical factors, and December's data will reveal the true inflation levels as these distortions fade [2][7] Monthly Data Recovery - The key focus for December's CPI data is the recovery in month-over-month growth rates, with consensus estimates predicting a rise to 0.3% for both overall and core inflation indices [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a significant rebound in December's core CPI, projecting a month-over-month increase of 0.36%, well above the average of 0.08% seen in October and November [5] Statistical Distortions - The potential strength in inflation data is attributed to the reversal of the "shutdown effect," which previously hindered data collection and led to artificially low November figures [7] - The December CPI data is expected to correct for statistical biases caused by the government shutdown, which affected housing data and resulted in an underestimation of inflation [7][12] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Economists predict noticeable rebounds in prices for hotels, airfare, and clothing, with expectations of accelerated inflation in food, core goods, and core services [8] - However, some analysts anticipate only moderate increases in owners' equivalent rent (OER), which could help control December's inflation data [8] Future Inflation Pressures - Inflationary pressures are shifting from service-related costs to tariff-related impacts, with companies increasingly looking to pass on rising input costs to consumers [8][9] - Concerns have been raised about a potential wave of price increases related to tariffs in early 2026, as businesses signal intentions to transfer higher costs to consumers [9] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve faces a complex situation as inflation remains above the 2% target, with overall CPI readings fluctuating between 2.3% and 3.0% [10] - Market predictions suggest that the Fed may remain inactive in terms of rate cuts unless there is a significant drop in inflation in the first quarter [10] Market Reaction Predictions - Morgan Stanley has developed a predictive matrix for the core CPI month-over-month rate and its potential impact on the S&P 500 index, indicating various scenarios based on CPI outcomes [11][13] - The forex market is closely monitoring the upcoming CPI data, particularly the USD/JPY exchange rate, which typically reacts strongly to U.S. economic data [11][16]

美联储主席鲍威尔正面临来自白宫的刑事调查威胁，在这场旨在捍卫央行独立性的斗争中，他意外收获 了一支强大的盟军——"Meme股"散户大军。这一群体将这位72岁的央行掌舵人奉为美股历史性牛市的 守护者，不仅在社交媒体上对其顶礼膜拜，更将其视为敢于对抗行政压力的"美国英雄"。 事件的导火索在于鲍威尔周日发表的一份强硬声明，指责特朗普政府利用刑事起诉的威胁施压美联储进 一步降息。这种罕见的公开对抗迅速点燃了散户投资者的热情，他们不仅没有因潜在的动荡感到恐慌， 反而通过键盘表达了对鲍威尔的坚定支持，许多人认为他是在保护使得美股屡创新高的经济体系。 1月12日，据华尔街日报、彭博社等媒体报道，在以散户大本营著称的Reddit论坛WallStreetBets版块， 力挺鲍威尔的帖子迅速成为热门，数以千计的"点赞"涌向这位决策者。对于这些伴随美股历史高位成长 的年轻投资者而言，鲍威尔不仅是"拥有气场"的技术官僚，更是他们眼中"史上最好的主席"，其面对压 力的坚定立场被视为对市场信心的有力背书。 "鲍威尔爸爸"的死忠粉 当鲍威尔公开捍卫美联储独立性时，曾因2021年GameStop狂热而一战成名的WallStreetBets论 ...

Core Insights - Venezuela's stock market has surged significantly, with the benchmark index IBC rising over 130% since January 3, following political changes and expectations of economic recovery [1] - Investor sentiment has been bolstered by the Trump administration's proposed oil revival plan, which encourages U.S. oil companies to invest in Venezuela's oil extraction infrastructure [1] - Wall Street is responding quickly, with Teucrium applying to the SEC to establish the first ETF focused on Venezuelan exposure, indicating potential access for global funds into this previously closed market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The IBC index has increased by 1644% over the past year, reflecting a mix of hope and speculation rather than confirmed outcomes [2] - Analysts warn that the small size and low liquidity of the Venezuelan stock market could lead to extreme price volatility, as even minor changes in expectations can trigger significant price movements [2] - Current market demand is driven by a diverse group of investors, including emerging market asset managers and hedge funds seeking asymmetric upside potential [4] Group 2: Debt and Recovery Outlook - There is renewed interest in Venezuelan sovereign bonds and bonds from the state oil company, driven by optimism regarding potential debt restructuring [4] - Venezuela's external debt is estimated to be between $150 billion and $170 billion, complicating any recovery plans [5] - The success of recovery efforts is contingent on maintaining the process without derailment, which could lead to a "complete re-rating situation" [5]

韩国芯片制造商SK海力士周二宣布，计划投资19万亿韩元（约合129亿美元）新建一座先进封装工厂，以应对人工智能技术蓬勃发展所引发的高 带宽内存（HBM）需求激增。 根据声明，新工厂将主要聚焦于先进封装技术，这是提升芯片性能与能效的关键环节。该设施将位于韩国清州市，依托公司现有的生产布局进行 扩建。SK海力士表示，建设计划于今年4月启动，预计在2027年底完工投产，届时将大幅提升其将多个存储芯片集成至单一高密度单元的能力。 新工厂将专注于先进封装工艺，该工艺通过将多个存储芯片组合成一个高密度单元，能够在减小芯片整体尺寸的同时，显著提升数据处理速度和 能源效率。这种技术路线对于满足下一代AI处理器对带宽和能耗的严苛要求至关重要。 供应紧缩与价格上涨压力 尽管HBM市场前景广阔，但其生产过程远比用于大多数消费电子产品的传统存储器更为复杂和严苛。随着芯片制造商纷纷将产能转向满足AI驱动 的高端需求，传统存储芯片的供应已出现紧张迹象。 研究机构TrendForce上周发布报告称，预计本季度包括HBM在内的动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）平均价格将较2025年第四季度上涨50%至 55%。DRAM通常指大多数计算机中用于临 ...