作者：龙玥，华尔街见闻 自2024年9月美联储启动本轮降息以来，已累计将基准利率下调1.5个百分点至3.75%-4%的区间。然而， 市场的反应却出人意料。同期，10年期美国国债收益率攀升了近0.5个百分点至4.1%，而30年期国债收 益率的涨幅更是超过了0.8个百分点。 这一走势直接挑战了传统的市场逻辑，即美联储降息通常会引导长期利率下行。它也与美国总统特朗普 的预期相悖，后者认为更快的降息将有效拉低抵押贷款、信用卡等各类贷款利率。市场的反常表现意味 着，投资者对利率前景的判断与美联储存在巨大分歧。 当下，对于这种分歧的解读，市场观点众说纷纭。乐观者认为这是经济将避免衰退的信心体现；中性观 点则视其为市场利率回归2008年金融危机前常态的标志；而悲观者则担忧，这反映了"债券义警"的回 归，他们对美国不断膨胀的国家债务和潜在的通胀风险投下了不信任票。 罕见背离：降息周期下的收益率上行 通常情况下，当美联储调整其短期政策利率时，长期债券收益率会随之变动。然而，本轮周期的表现却 打破了常规。 首先，由于美联储在后疫情时代为遏制通胀而采取的加息力度空前，市场在美联储真正开始降息前，早 已提前消化了政策转向的预期，导致 ...

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index rose over 1%, indicating a positive market sentiment in the A-share market [1] - Brokerage stocks in A-shares experienced significant gains, with Industrial Securities hitting the daily limit, Northeast Securities rising over 7%, and other major firms like Bank of China Securities, Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and GF Securities also seeing increases [1] - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, announced on December 6 that regulatory measures will be strengthened, focusing on differentiated supervision, optimizing evaluation indicators for quality institutions, and appropriately expanding capital space and leverage limits to enhance capital utilization efficiency [1]

自2024年9月美联储启动本轮降息以来，已累计将基准利率下调1.5个百分点至3.75%-4%的区间。然而，市场的反应却出人意料。同期，10年期美 国国债收益率攀升了近0.5个百分点至4.1%，而30年期国债收益率的涨幅更是超过了0.8个百分点。 但作为美国消费者和企业借贷成本基准的关键国债收益率，却并未随之走低。 回顾过去四十年中仅有的两次非衰退时期的降息周期（1995年和1998年），当时美联储仅降息75个基点，10年期国债收益率要么直接下降，要么 涨幅远不及当前水平。 这一走势直接挑战了传统的市场逻辑，即美联储降息通常会引导长期利率下行。它也与美国总统特朗普的预期相悖，后者认为更快的降息将有效 拉低抵押贷款、信用卡等各类贷款利率。市场的反常表现意味着，投资者对利率前景的判断与美联储存在巨大分歧。 当下，对于这种分歧的解读，市场观点众说纷纭。乐观者认为这是经济将避免衰退的信心体现；中性观点则视其为市场利率回归2008年金融危机 前常态的标志；而悲观者则担忧，这反映了"债券义警"的回归，他们对美国不断膨胀的国家债务和潜在的通胀风险投下了不信任票。 罕见背离：降息周期下的收益率上行 通常情况下，当美联储调整其短 ...

美国财政部长贝森特预计，尽管经历了长时间的政府关门，美国今年仍将实现3%的实际GDP增速。这 一预测显示白宫对经济前景保持乐观，尽管消费者信心和通胀压力仍是市场关注焦点。 通胀与消费者信心分化 消费者支出占美国GDP近70%，但消费者情绪依然低迷。密歇根大学消费者信心指数12月为53.3，虽较 11月上升4.5%，但较去年同期下降28%。 这一表态与消费者情绪形成对比。密歇根大学12月消费者信心指数为53.3，较去年同期下降28%。近期 民调显示，约三分之二的注册选民认为特朗普政府在经济和生活成本问题上表现不及预期。 贝森特将消费者对负担能力的担忧归咎于媒体报道的影响，并称政府正在处理拜登政府留下的通胀问 题，他表示明年美国将"迈向繁荣"。 经济增长或超预期 根据美国经济分析局数据，2025年第一季度GDP同比收缩0.6%，但第二季度实现3.8%的增长。 贝森特表示： 经济状况好于我们的预期，我们有几个季度实现了4%的GDP增长。尽管发生了政府关门事 件，我们今年仍将以3%的实际GDP增速收官。 亚特兰大联储12月5日发布的最新预测显示，第三季度年化GDP增速为3.5%。经济分析局将于12月23日 公布第三季 ...

浦发银行的"村改支"进程持续提速。 业绩"翻身仗" 12月3日，大连甘井子浦发村镇银行收到大连金监局发布的解散批复，这家成立了15年的村镇银行将正式并入浦发银行体系，成为大连梭鱼湾支行。 无独有偶，今年以来，浦发银行旗下已有富民、泽州、邹平等6家村镇银行相继完成"村改支"，村镇银行数量已缩减至22家。 对于村镇银行而言，纳入总行体系后的风控、数字化水平与资源配置能力都将有显著提升； 这既响应了监管压实发起行责任、加快中小金融机构改革化险的要求，亦呼应了近期浦发银行管理层对于"适度下沉经营网络"的表态。 在息差收窄与中收乏力的近几年，县域市场凭借差异化的产业基础和未被充分开发的消费潜力成长为新蓝海，国股行主动向下沉市场要增量，早已不是新鲜 事。 浦发银行成为了参与者之一。 利率下行周期中，浦发银行在资产定价与揽储上的短板持续暴露，净息差处于股份行下游；加之2017年成都分行造假案的千亿坏账余波未平，该行业绩常年 笼罩在阴霾之下。 2024年起，以张为忠为董事长、谢伟为行长的新一届管理团队陆续就位，提出聚焦"数智化"转型，主攻科技、供应链、普惠、跨境和财资"五大赛道"，激活 对公基因； 这一过程中，下沉县域正在成 ...

Core Viewpoint - A new regulatory policy aimed at insurance funds is expected to inject significant capital into the A-share market, potentially releasing hundreds of billions in incremental funds and stimulating market activity [1][9]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies holding certain equity assets long-term, effective December 5, 2025 [1][10]. - The risk factor for stocks held over three years in the CSI 300 and the China Securities Low Volatility 100 Index has been lowered from 0.3 to 0.27, while for stocks held over two years in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, it has been reduced from 0.4 to 0.36 [10]. Group 2: Capital Release Estimates - The policy is projected to release a minimum capital scale of approximately 457 billion yuan under a neutral scenario, with potential stock investment increases of about 1,669 billion yuan if the solvency ratio remains unchanged [2][3]. - In an optimistic scenario, the potential increase in stock investment could reach 2,015 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The true potential for insurance funds entering the market lies in the systemic increase of their overall equity allocation ratio, which could represent a trillion-level space [5][7]. - As of Q3 2025, insurance companies' investment in stocks and funds exceeds 15%, indicating significant room for growth towards the regulatory cap of 30% [5][6]. Group 4: Market Impact - The timing of this policy is crucial, as it may catalyze the "spring market" amid a lack of clear industrial catalysts, with supply-demand dynamics becoming a primary market concern [9]. - The policy is expected to enhance the appeal of high-dividend assets, which may become a key focus for insurance capital as their investment appetite increases [9].

证监会主席吴清近日明确提出对优质券商"适度松绑"，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本空间和杠杆 限制。这一表态被市场视为券商行业政策环境转向积极的重要信号。 12月6日，中国证监会主席吴清在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上表示，各证券公司要立足自身资源 禀赋，发挥好比较优势，从价格竞争加快转向价值竞争。头部机构要保持时不我待、不进则退的紧迫 感，在市场竞争力、客户和投资者服务、风险管理等方面树标杆做表率，要进一步增强资源整合的意识 和能力，用好并购重组机制和工具，实现优势互补、高效配置，力争在"十五五"时期形成若干家具有较 大国际影响力的头部机构。 "需要强调的是，一流投行不是说就是头部机构的专属，中小机构也要把握优势、错位发展，在细分领 域、特色客户群、重点区域等方面集中资源，深耕细作，努力打造'小而美'的精品投行、特色投行和特 色服务商。"吴清说。 吴清表示，证监会将着力强化分类监管、扶优限劣，对优质机构适当松绑，进一步优化风控指标，适度 打开资本空间和杠杆限制，提升资本利用效率；对中小券商、外资券商在分类评价、业务准入等方面， 探索实施差异化监管，促进特色化发展；对少数问题券商要依法从严监管，违法的要依法从 ...

Market Overview - US economic data strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts next week, with all three major US stock indices rising, and the S&P approaching record highs [2] - Nvidia fell 0.5% but gained over 3% for the week, while Tesla rose nearly 6% [2] - After agreeing to acquire Warner Bros, Netflix dropped nearly 3% [2] - Chinese concept stocks rose over 1%, with Baidu's US stock surging nearly 6% [2] - US Treasury yields rose to a two-week high, with the ten-year Treasury posting its worst weekly performance in nearly eight months [2] - The dollar index turned higher, and gold reached a new daily high, gaining over 1% intraday before retracing [2] - Silver and copper both hit historical highs, with silver rising over 4% intraday [2] - Crude oil rose for three consecutive days, reaching a two-week high, with WTI closing above $60 for the first time in two weeks [2] Key News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) chairman Wu Qing announced plans to moderately open up capital space and leverage limits for quality brokerages, while firmly avoiding unclear businesses like crypto assets [4] - The CSRC released a draft for China's first administrative regulations on listed companies, aiming to strengthen constraints on key individuals and establish a comprehensive mechanism against financial fraud [5] - The A-share insurance sector surged as risk factors were lowered, allowing for increased investment from insurance capital [6] - China's foreign reserves increased by 0.09% in November, with the central bank increasing gold holdings for the 13th consecutive month [7] - The 2025 China medical insurance drug list was published, adding 114 new drugs, including treatments for pancreatic and lung cancer [8] Company Developments - Baidu's Kunlun Chip plans to go public in Hong Kong with an estimated valuation of nearly $3 billion, having previously considered an A-share listing [10] - Vanke seeks to extend two medium-term notes totaling 5.871 billion yuan and has terminated cooperation with two rating agencies [11] - Wuliangye announced its first price reduction in ten years, clarifying that the "price drop" refers to changes after subsidies [12] - SpaceX's valuation may double to $800 billion, surpassing OpenAI to become the highest-valued private company globally, with plans for an IPO in the second half of next year [13] - The first domestic GPU company, Moore Threads, debuted with a 425% increase, making it one of the most profitable new stocks this year [27] Industry Insights - The insurance sector is expected to see increased capital market participation due to lowered risk factors, enhancing capital efficiency [25] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strong demand, with companies like AMD and CoreWeave expanding to meet future needs [41] - The cultivation diamond market in China is projected to grow rapidly, with the market size expected to exceed 102.5 billion yuan by 2030 [43] - The cybersecurity sector is seeing regulatory developments, with new risk assessment measures being proposed for data processing activities [44]

随着下周12月10日美联储议息会议临近，市场不仅仅聚焦于板上钉钉的降息举措，华尔街资深策略师指 出，美联储可能即将宣布一项重大的资产负债表扩张计划。 近日，前纽约联储回购专家、美银利率策略师Mark Cabana预测，除了广泛预期的降息25个基点外，美 联储主席鲍威尔将在下周三宣布每月购买450亿美元国库券（T-bills）的计划，这一购债操作将于2026 年1月正式实施，旨在通过向系统注入流动性，防止回购市场利率进一步飙升。 Cabana在报告中警告称，虽然利率市场对降息反应平淡，但投资者普遍"低估"了美联储在资产负债表方 面的行动力度。他指出，目前的货币市场利率水平表明银行体系的准备金已不再"充裕"，美联储必须通 过重启购车据来填补流动性缺口。与此同时，瑞银交易部门也给出了类似的预测，认为美联储将在2026 年初开始每月购买约400亿美元的国库券，以维持短期利率市场的稳定。 这一潜在的政策调整发生在美联储领导层即将更迭的关键时期。随着鲍威尔任期接近尾声，以及市场对 Kevin Hassett可能接任美联储主席的预期升温，下周的会议不仅关乎短期流动性，更将为未来一年的货 币政策路径定调。 前纽约联储专家预测 ...

这种乐观情绪推动了投资者观念的根本性转变，市场已从最初的怀疑态度，转变为认可中国市场能通过科技进步提供独特价值。据彭博数据显 示，MSCI中国指数今年飙升约30%，创下自2017年以来跑赢标普500指数的最大幅度，并为市场增加了2.4万亿美元的市值。 中国股市正凭借其在人工智能领域的实力以及在地缘政治紧张局势下的韧性，重新赢回全球资金的青睐，华尔街普遍押注这一涨势将在2026年延 续。 包括Amundi SA、BNP Paribas Asset Management、Fidelity International和Man Group在内的全球主要基金管理公司均预计中国股市将继续上涨。 JPMorgan Chase & Co.近期将中国市场评级上调至"超配"，而Allspring Global Investments更指出，这一资产类别对于外国投资者而言正变得"不可 或缺"。 看好中国股市的核心逻辑在于对其庞大的科技巨头群体的乐观预期，特别是在芯片、生物制药和机器人领域。围绕人工智能的热潮已推动阿里巴 巴和寒武纪等公司股价大幅上涨。 与此同时，今年表现落后于大盘的板块，尤其是消费板块，也被认为存在反弹空间。Man ...