11月11日，专注于人工智能（AI）基础设施的云计算服务商Nebius在当日开盘前公布了其第三季度财务报告。财 报显示，公司业绩未能达到华尔街预期，导致其股价承压大幅下挫。 在发布财报前，Nebius股价在2025年内已飙升264%，市场的高期望值使得任何业绩上的瑕疵都可能引发剧烈波 动。其竞争对手CoreWeave近日也因下调全年营收指引而股价大跌，反映出AI基础设施领域的激烈竞争与挑战。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点 或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 在披露业绩的同时，Nebius也宣布了一系列重大商业动态。公司已与Meta达成一项协议，将在未来五年内为其 提供价值约30亿美元的AI计算基础设施。值得注意的是，据报道，Nebius近期还与微软签署了一份价值高达190 亿美元的合作协议。 为支撑业务扩张，Nebius还宣布计划发行2500万股A类普通股，旨在为数据中心的建设筹集资金。 作为一家向AI模型构建者和应用开发者出租英伟达AI芯片服务器的公司，Nebius身处高速增 ...

Core Insights - A capital expenditure race driven by artificial intelligence is leading global tech giants to enter the debt market at an unprecedented pace, reshaping the credit bond landscape from the US to Europe [1] - Despite the record issuance of bonds, the impact on overall credit market spreads is expected to be limited [9][12] Group 1: US Market Trends - Major tech companies, including Meta, Alphabet, and Oracle, have collectively raised over $70 billion recently, contributing to a 115% year-on-year increase in US investment-grade tech bond issuance, reaching $211 billion [1][5] - The share of tech bonds in the US investment-grade market surged from 7% in June to 34% in October, marking a multi-year high [5] - The anticipated capital expenditures for large-scale data centers could lead to an additional $140 billion to $175 billion in new public investment-grade credit supply by 2026 [1] Group 2: Global Market Trends - The trend of increased tech bond issuance is not limited to the US; significant growth is observed in global credit markets, including Europe [6] - In the US high-yield market, tech bond issuance rose from $27 billion to $40 billion year-on-year, while European investment-grade tech bond issuance increased from $6 billion to $35 billion [6] - The private credit market has also become a crucial financing channel for tech companies, with approximately $120 billion raised in 2025 to date, surpassing the total for 2024 [8] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical data indicates that high issuance periods in specific industries, such as healthcare and telecom, did not lead to sustained negative impacts on market performance [9] - Analysts predict that the current tech bond issuance wave will have a "negligible" effect on overall investment-grade index spreads, with limited to moderate impacts on the tech sector itself [12]

在今年金价迭创新高的背景下，一份来自花旗的最新黄金展望报告为狂热的市场提供了一个冷静的视角。报告的核心结论是，尽管长期结构性需求依然存 在，但从多个维度看，黄金的估值已然"昂贵"，投资者需对未来的价格波动做好准备。 据追风交易台消息，这份发布于11月10日的研报分析，从五个关键维度衡量，黄金的估值均已达到或接近历史极值，这向市场发出了明确的警告信号。 不过，花旗也为投资者描绘了另外两种截然不同的可能性。在30%概率的牛市情景中，持续的结构性问题，如美国财政可持续性危机或地缘政治紧张局势 升级，将推动投资者持续涌入黄金，可能将金价在2026年底推高至5000美元，并在2027年底进一步升至6000美元。 占GDP比重创55年新高：全球每年用于黄金的支出占全球GDP的比重已攀升至约0.55%，这是过去55年来的最高水平。 占家庭财富比重创历史新高：私人部门持有的黄金（包括金饰、金条和金币）价值，占全球家庭净财富的比重已达到约3.5%，创下有记 录以来的历史新高。 占外汇储备比重达30年高点：黄金在全球央行外汇储备中的份额已接近35%，达到了自1990年代中期以来的最高点。 与广义货币比接近历史峰值：作为衡量货币价 ...

Core Points - Trump is set to host a private dinner at the White House on November 11, with top business executives expected to attend, including the CEOs of Nasdaq and JPMorgan Chase [1] - The meeting aims to strengthen the relationship between the Trump administration and business leaders to advance its economic agenda, focusing on private sector investment to enhance domestic production and key industries [1] - JPMorgan Chase has announced a ten-year investment plan worth $1.5 trillion to support critical sectors for U.S. national security and economic resilience, including supply chain and manufacturing, defense and aerospace, energy independence, and advanced technology [1] - The bank plans to deploy up to $10 billion in direct equity and venture capital investments to relevant U.S. companies [1] - In recent months, Trump has held a series of private meetings with business leaders [1] Additional Context - In September, Trump hosted a dinner in the Rose Garden with 24 technology and business leaders, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates [2]

Core Insights - SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son has made a significant move by liquidating all of SoftBank's $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia to reinvest in the AI sector, including a planned $30 billion investment in OpenAI and participation in a $1 trillion AI manufacturing center project in Arizona [1][4] - The sale involved offloading 32.1 million shares of Nvidia at an exit price of approximately $181.58 per share, just 14% below Nvidia's historical peak of $212.19 [1] - This marks SoftBank's second complete exit from Nvidia, with the first exit in 2019 resulting in substantial losses, raising questions about whether Son perceives risks that others do not [1][5] Investment Style - Masayoshi Son's investment approach has been characterized by extreme bets, with a history of both significant gains and losses, including a $700 billion personal loss during the dot-com bubble and a legendary $20 million investment in Alibaba that grew to $150 billion by 2020 [2] - His willingness to seek large sums from investors, such as the $45 billion from Saudi Arabia for the Vision Fund, demonstrates a consistent strategy of aggressive capital raising [2] WeWork Experience - The investment in WeWork serves as a cautionary tale, where Son's high valuation of $47 billion led to a failed IPO and significant losses for SoftBank, totaling $11.5 billion in equity losses and an additional $2.2 billion in debt [3] Market Reactions - The recent liquidation of Nvidia shares has caused market speculation, with analysts suggesting that this move should not be interpreted as a negative stance towards Nvidia, yet it raises concerns about Son's insights into potential unseen risks [5]

在经历上个月市值蒸发数千亿美元的重挫后，比特币正艰难地寻求反弹，但脆弱的市场情绪和持续的抛 压，正让任何复苏的尝试都举步维艰。 尽管华盛顿结束政府关门的利好消息提振了传统风险资产，但加密货币市场并未迎来期待中的强劲上 涨，凸显出投资者在巨额亏损后的不安情绪仍在蔓延。 这一全球最大的加密货币周一一度短暂突破107,000美元，但很快回落至105,000美元下方。这一乏力的 价格表现，与因美国政府重新开放而上涨的股市和信贷市场形成鲜明对比，表明加密资产的内部动能依 然不足。 关键指标显示动能不足 据彭博社报道，自10月10日因特朗普意外宣布关税而引发创纪录的清算以来，比特币的市值已缩水约 3400亿美元。市场普遍认为，近期的低迷部分源于早期大持有者（即"OG鲸鱼"）在接近年度高点时获 利了结，同时，10月初大规模清算事件留下的阴影也挥之不去。 疲软的迹象在多个关键指标中得到印证。衡量市场情绪和杠杆水平的数据显示，投资者的热情远未恢 复。与此同时，技术图表上的关键阻力位也对价格构成了沉重压制，市场参与者对前景的看法充满分 歧。 一系列数据表明，推动比特币上涨的动力尚未回归。比特币永续期货的未平仓合约总额目前约为68 ...

Core Insights - The focus of the market is shifting from the political deadlock of the U.S. government shutdown to the release of delayed economic data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December [1][5]. Economic Data Release Timeline - Morgan Stanley predicts that once the government resumes operations, delayed economic data will be released, with significant delays expected due to the shutdown covering the entire month of October [1][2]. - Key data releases are projected as follows: - September Employment Report: November 19, 2025 [3][4]. - September Retail Sales and PPI: November 26, 2025 [3][4]. - Q3 GDP: December 5, 2025 [3][4]. - October Employment Report: December 8, 2025 [3][4]. Federal Reserve's December Meeting - The Federal Reserve is expected to have access to critical data, including September employment, inflation (PCE), and retail sales, before its meeting on December 9-10 [5]. - Despite data delays, Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, driven by weak labor demand and rising unemployment [6]. Asymmetric Risks for Investors - Investors face asymmetric risks where "good news" could turn into "bad news" for the market, particularly if strong economic data challenges the prevailing narrative of rate cuts [7]. - If employment data unexpectedly improves, it may force a reevaluation of the Fed's interest rate path, potentially leading to market adjustments [7].

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15% and the ChiNext Index down 0.43% [1][5] - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.22% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.26% [6][8] - The bond market saw most contracts rise, with the 30-year main contract up 0.05% and the 10-year main contract up 0.02% [1][2] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as photovoltaic, lithium batteries, and computing hardware experienced significant declines [1][5] - Conversely, pharmaceutical stocks saw a collective surge, with notable gains in companies like Hezhong China and Renmin Tongtai [1][2] - In the Hong Kong market, new consumption concept stocks continued to rise, while sectors like photovoltaic and paper industries faced declines [1][6] Commodity Market - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with crude oil futures rising over 2% [1][7] - Specific commodities such as low-sulfur fuel oil and tin also saw increases, while polysilicon and coking coal experienced declines [7][8] Currency Exchange - The RMB/USD central parity rate was reported at 7.0833, an increase of 33 points from the previous trading day [6]

当地时间周二，ADP研究机构与斯坦福数字经济实验室的初步估算显示，在截至10月25日的四周内，美国私营企业薪酬岗位数量平均每周减少11,250个。 累计计算，当月共减少45,000个工作岗位（不含政府雇员），这将是自2023年3月以来最大的月度就业人数降幅。 与此相呼应的是，多家公司近期已陆续宣布裁员计划。再就业服务公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.的报告显示，本月企业公布的裁员规模创下二十 多年来的同期最高纪录，引发市场对劳动力市场健康状况的担忧。 企业持续裁员，加剧就业市场恶化 ADP于上月开始发布更频繁的劳动力市场数据，作为对其长期月度报告的补充。这些数据基于四周移动平均值，发布时间滞后两周。 在当前招聘率较低且失业人员求职难度高于往常的情况下，裁员持续增加尤其令人担忧。高盛指出，尽管科技行业在10月份的两项指标中均出现显著裁员 增长，但目前尚未发现明确证据表明大部分裁员措施是直接由人工智能驱动。 与此同时，首次申请失业救济人数——这一波动较小、代表性更强的指标（但可能滞后于裁员公告和《工人调整和再培训通知法》预警通知）——仍保持 在低位。 高盛开发了新工具，通过追踪 ...

花旗银行在一份报告中称， 比亚迪 计划明年在海外销售多达160万辆汽车，进一步加快海外扩张，并预 期从2025年起实现高双位数增长。 ...