风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 12月24日，北京市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、北京住房公积金管理中心等 4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），自2025年 12月24日起施行。《通知》明确，为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求，进一步优化 调整住房限购政策。一是放宽非京籍家庭购房条件。将非京籍家庭购买五环内商品住房的社保或个税缴 纳年限，由现行的"3年"调减为"2年";购买五环外商品住房的，由现行的"2年"调减为"1年"。二是支持多 子女家庭住房需求。二孩及以上的多子女家庭，可在五环内多购买一套商品住房，即：京籍多子女家 庭，可在五环内购买3套商品住房；在京连续2年缴纳社保或个税的非京籍多子女家庭，可在五环内购买 2套商品住房。《通知》明确，进一步优化个人住房信贷政策，银行业金融机构根据北京地区市场利率 定价自律机制要求和本机构经营状况、客户风险状况等因素，在利率定 ...

华尔街知名投行Bernstein 19日发布研报认为，尽管英伟达今年股价表现尚可，但在盈利预期持续上修的背景下，其估值已经历剧烈压缩，目前处 于极具吸引力的历史低位。 据追风交易台消息，报告显示，自今年7月以来英伟达股价陷入停滞，年内涨幅约30%，跑输费城半导体指数（SOX）的38%。这种股价停滞与盈 利增长的背离，导致其预期市盈率（P/FE）大幅回落至25倍以下。 分析师强调，当前价位是极佳的买入时点。历史数据显示，投资者若在英伟达市盈率低于25倍时买入，通常回报丰厚，平均一年期回报率超过 150%，且在此期间持有没有出现过负收益。 估值跌至"地板价"，多重催化剂蓄势待发 据Bernstein测算，25倍的预期市盈率意味着英伟达目前的估值处于过去十年估值区间的第11百分位，属于绝对低位。更引人注目的是相对估值数 据：在过去十年中，仅有13个交易日英伟达相对于SOX指数的交易价格比现在更便宜。 针对市场近期关于AI资本开支（Capex）可持续性的担忧，Rasgon指出目前的资本开支意向依然健康，且GPU相对于ASIC的竞争叙事正在恢复活 力。展望新一年，CES和GTC大会有望提供进一步催化剂，Rubin架构产 ...

Core Viewpoint - Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth data has diminished market expectations for a recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a general decline in global stock markets while commodities surge, particularly precious metals and agricultural products [1][2]. Economic Data and Market Reactions - U.S. stock index futures fell, with the Dow Jones futures down over 0.1%, S&P 500 futures down 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.12% [2]. - Asian stock indices also declined, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.1% and South Korea's Seoul Composite Index down 0.2% [2]. Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2%, while the Japanese yen strengthened for three consecutive days, trading at 155.67 against the dollar [3]. - The South Korean won also appreciated, nearing the psychologically significant 1500 won per dollar mark, which has only been breached during extreme market pressures [6]. Commodity Price Trends - Gold prices initially surpassed $4500 per ounce before slightly retreating to $4485, marking a significant increase of over two-thirds this year [3][8]. - Silver prices rose nearly 1% to $72.11 per ounce, driven by both investment and industrial demand [11]. - Platinum prices reached a historical high above $2300 per ounce, influenced by supply shortages from major producing countries [14]. - London copper prices hit a record high, surpassing $12224 per ton [17]. - Chicago wheat futures continued to rise for five consecutive trading days, driven by supply concerns due to geopolitical issues and adverse weather conditions in the U.S. [18].

Core Insights - Leap Motor has achieved significant milestones in its tenth year, with annual sales expected to approach 600,000 units and a potential for annual profitability, marking it as the most fruitful year for the company [2][3] - The company has established itself as a leading new energy vehicle brand in China, with cumulative sales surpassing 1.2 million units since its inception [2][3] Sales Performance - In 2025, Leap Motor's sales are projected to reach nearly 600,000 units, including approximately 60,000 units delivered overseas, making it the top performer among new energy vehicle manufacturers [2][3] - The company aims to challenge for annual sales of 1 million units by 2026, with new product launches planned for the A and D series [4][7] Global Expansion - Leap Motor has expanded into 35 overseas markets, with over 800 international stores, and has partnered with Stellantis to enhance its global sales and service network [3][6] - The company is transitioning from merely selling cars abroad to establishing manufacturing capabilities in international markets [8] Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes the need for continuous technological innovation, quality excellence, and efficient organizational operations to maintain competitiveness in an increasingly fierce market [4][7][8] - Leap Motor's leadership stresses the importance of a crisis mindset and warns against complacency despite recent successes, aiming to evolve from a "new force" to a respected global automotive enterprise [4][5][8]

全球汽车行业正站在一个巨大的转折点上。据大摩21日发布的《机器人年鉴第六卷：自动驾驶汽车》（The Robot Almanac Vol. 6: Autonomous Vehicles），分析师Adam Jonas团队指出，尽管人类目前每年累计在汽车内花费的时间相当于8200万年，但这一传统的驾驶模式即将被打破，自动驾驶 技术正处于从"0到1"爆发的前夜。 在这一轮全球技术竞赛中，大摩明确指出中国已经处于领先地位。据追风交易台消息，报告数据显示，中国目前拥有全球约60%的L2+级自动驾驶汽车 份额，这不仅得益于中国在电动汽车（EV）领域的胜利，更在于其通过海量电动车队构建的"数据探针"优势。 与此同时，美国市场的竞争格局也正发生深刻变化，Waymo与特斯拉之间的路线之争愈演愈烈。Waymo正在从凤凰城、旧金山等地向洛杉矶、奥斯汀 及亚特兰大等全美主要城市快速扩张，其运营里程预计将在未来几年实现爆发式增长；而特斯拉采取的纯视觉方案则被视为"刚刚起步"，虽然硬件成本 极低，但旨在通过庞大的车队数据实现超越。报告将当前的传感器技术路线之争比作19世纪末的"电流之战"（War of the Currents），认为不同 ...

Core Insights - Waymo announced a systematic upgrade to its autonomous vehicle fleet to enhance emergency response capabilities in extreme infrastructure failure situations, following a significant power outage in San Francisco that exposed vulnerabilities in autonomous driving technology [1][4]. Group 1: Incident Overview - A large-scale power outage occurred in the San Francisco Bay Area, affecting approximately 130,000 users and causing traffic signal failures, which led to Waymo's autonomous taxis becoming traffic "obstacles" [2][6]. - Videos circulated on social media showed multiple Waymo vehicles stalling at intersections, prompting human drivers to navigate around them, highlighting the challenges faced by autonomous vehicles in such scenarios [2][6]. Group 2: Emergency Measures - Waymo is implementing three immediate measures to improve system performance, including fleet-wide technology updates, enhanced emergency response protocols, and coordination with the San Francisco city government [4][5]. - The first measure involves providing vehicles with more contextual information about regional power outages to enable decisive actions at intersections [5]. - The second measure focuses on improving emergency response protocols and collaborating with the mayor's team to strengthen emergency preparedness [5]. - The third measure includes updating training for emergency personnel to learn from this and other large-scale events, ensuring that the fleet can safely park and return to the garage without exacerbating congestion during peak recovery times [5][6]. Group 3: Business Expansion and Challenges - Beyond the San Francisco Bay Area, Waymo offers paid ride services in cities like Austin, Phoenix, Atlanta, and Los Angeles, completing approximately 450,000 paid rides weekly [6]. - The company estimates that by December, it will have provided 14 million rides in 2025, with a goal of surpassing 20 million total rides since its launch in 2020 [6]. - Waymo emphasizes its commitment to developing the Waymo Driver for real-world scenarios, including infrastructure failures, while acknowledging that the recent outage provides valuable lessons for the entire autonomous driving industry [6].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the awakening of value in China's capital market, moving towards a low-volatility and high-Sharpe ratio investment phase [1][6][26]. Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to emerge from its low point and enter a recovery phase, with exports remaining a key support for macroeconomic performance in 2026 [1][30]. - Despite overall external demand pressure, China's manufacturing competitiveness remains intact, particularly in the midstream sector, which is expected to show resilience in exports [1][30]. - CPI is likely to trend positively, with a high certainty of turning positive, reflecting the ongoing recovery in domestic demand [1][30][33]. - PPI is expected to show an upward trend, but its year-on-year positive growth needs to be verified in the second quarter [1][30][37]. Policy Perspective - Macro policies are shifting away from "extraordinary" measures, focusing instead on stabilizing expectations and supporting economic operations [2][26]. - The emphasis will be on sustainable policy adjustments rather than large-scale stimulus, with a focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals [2][27]. Asset Allocation Insights - In 2026, a "dual bull market" in stocks and bonds is unlikely; the focus will be on asymmetric volatility between the two asset classes [2][5]. - Investors are encouraged to consider undervalued, high-dividend sectors for allocation, while speculative funds should target industries with high capacity utilization and limited capital expenditure [2][5]. Sector-Specific Analysis - The midstream manufacturing sector is identified as the most certain area of prosperity for 2026, supported by enhanced export competitiveness and the implementation of anti-involution policies [5][30]. - The return on equity (ROE) in midstream manufacturing is expected to stabilize and improve, with PPI year-on-year growth anticipated to stop declining in the first half of the year [5][30]. Market Dynamics - The trend of residents moving their savings into financial assets is expected to continue, although risk appetite may not rise rapidly [2][5]. - The stock market's trading volume is projected to remain high but may not see significant increases compared to previous years [2][5]. Price Trends - The housing market's recovery is contingent on mortgage rates being lower than rental yields, which is a critical condition for stabilizing property prices [5][40]. - The relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields is highlighted as a key indicator for predicting housing price stabilization [5][40].

黑海地区供应风险与美国产区干旱天气形成共振，为全球小麦市场注入强劲上涨动力。 受黑海地区供应风险升级与美国产区天气不确定性的双重驱动，芝加哥小麦期货价格周二再度走高，已连续 五个交易日上涨，正迈向自4月以来持续时间最长的反弹行情。 据媒体报道，俄乌局势持续，已导致黑海敖德萨地区的能源及港口设施遭到破坏，进一步加剧了市场对作为 全球主要出口地的该地区粮食和食用油供应中断的担忧。 黑海供应链持续承压、美国产区面临持续干热 推动本轮价格上涨的主要因素，是市场对黑海地区出口中断的担忧再度升温。紧张局势的加剧不仅导致基础 设施受损，更直接冲击了农产品的出口物流。 乌克兰谷物协会称，针对关键基础设施的持续攻击以及电力短缺问题，导致铁路和港口无法满负荷运转，这 对粮食外运能力构成了实质性制约。 在供应风险之外，作为另一主要产区的美国，其气候条件也在恶化。美国农业部在周二的报告中强调，干燥 的天气伴随着创纪录的温暖气温，正覆盖中部和南部平原。 气象预报机构Vaisala在报告中指出，预计这种干燥状况本周仍将持续，维持相关种植区的水分短缺状态。这 一天气展望为市场看涨情绪提供了额外的基本面支撑。 分析师认为，地缘政治风险和天气 ...

随着特朗普政府正式签署旨在确立太空主导地位的行政命令，以及关键监管机构人事任命的尘埃落定，从初创火箭公司到老牌国防承包商，美国 太空行业正迎来一场空前的估值重估。 近日，美股太空板块集体大涨，延续了上周五以来的强劲势头。这一波行情的直接推手是特朗普上周签署的"确保美国太空优势"行政命令，该命 令明确提出建立永久月球基地的战略目标。与此同时，亿万富翁、马斯克的盟友Jared Isaacman在经历提名波折后，最终被参议院确认为NASA局 长，进一步强化了市场对商业航天将在未来国家战略中占据核心地位的预期。 这一系列政策组合拳被华尔街解读为该行业的重大利好。高盛分析师Anthony Valentini团队在18日的报告中指出，该行政命令为扩大美国在太空的 存在、发展商业太空经济奠定了基础，这将直接利好发射服务商和相关国防承包商。 在政策利好的刺激下，市场资金正加速涌入太空板块。截至2025年底，美股排名前19位的上市太空公司总市值已达到1310亿美元，而在一年前这 一数字仅为450亿美元，增幅接近三倍。 周一的市场表现尤为抢眼。刚于今年8月上市的火箭制造商Firefly Aerospace股价大涨16%，Intu ...

在生成式AI开启"新纪元"三年后的今天，市场的炒作与企业的实际落地之间出现了一道巨大的鸿沟。 高试用，低落地：62%的受访者表示正在试用智能体，但仅有23%的企业在至少一个职能中 启动了规模化应用。 职能局限：即便在推进规模化的企业中，应用也局限于一两个领域。在任何单一职能（如 IT、营销）中，能做到从试点走向规模化的比例均未超过10%。 据追风交易台，12月，麦肯锡在发布的AI应用调研报告中指出，虽然每个人都在谈论AI，但几乎没人 能从中真正赚大钱。 数据显示，近90%的企业已常态化使用AI，但绝大多数仍被困在"试点炼狱"中，未能实现规模化部署。 更致命的是，仅有39%的受访者认为AI对企业的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBIT）产生了实质性影响，且 其中多数贡献率不足5%。 麦肯锡认为，不要被企业财报电话会上的"AI含量"蒙蔽。目前的AI应用呈现出典型的"广泛但肤浅"的特 征。资本支出正在发生，但回报（ROI）严重滞后。 真正的赢家（仅占6%的高绩效企业）不仅仅是在购买软件，而是在重塑工作流和追求增长，而非单纯 的裁员降本。在评估标的时，投资者应警惕那些只停留在"试点"阶段的企业，寻找那些真正敢于重构业 务流程并 ...