据彭博报道，甲骨文已于周一正式开启美元债券发行，预计发债规模在200亿至250亿美元之间。受融资路径进一步清晰的提振，甲骨文股价在美 股盘前交易中一度涨超3%，市场对该公司解决资本支出资金来源的担忧暂时得到缓解。 根据声明，甲骨文计划通过单次债券发行筹集本年度所需的一半资金，并承诺年内不再发行额外票据，剩余资金缺口将通过股权相关工具及普通 股发行填补。评级机构惠誉已确认甲骨文的长期发行人违约评级为BBB。 然而，这一举动也将其资产负债表置于聚光灯下。作为除金融板块外最大的企业债券发行人之一，甲骨文目前的未偿债务已高达约950亿美元。在 利率高企的背景下，如此大规模的举债扩张引发了华尔街对公司现金流压力及财务结构脆弱性的审视。 八部分发债锁定长期资金 据知情人士向彭博透露，此次债券发行将分为八个部分，期限从3年到40年不等。其中，期限最长的40年期债券的初步价格指引显示，其收益率将 较美国国债高出约2.25个百分点。 此次发行由美国银行、花旗集团、德意志银行、高盛集团、汇丰控股、摩根大通等华尔街大行负责管理。 为了抢占人工智能算力的高地，软件巨头甲骨文正式启动了规模宏大的融资计划，拟通过债券和股权组合筹集最高达 ...

美银证券预计Alphabet四季度营收与每股收益将双超市场预期，并指出其资本开支上调幅度可能成为本次财报的关键变量。谷歌母公司Alphabet美 东时间2月4日盘后披露2025财年第四季度业绩。 美银分析师将四季度营收预测上调至959亿美元（市场预期952亿美元），每股收益预期调至2.65美元（市场预期2.64美元）。支撑业绩超预期的核 心因素包括：Meta强劲财报显示四季度广告市场保持稳定，而Gemini 3发布后使用量加速有望推动搜索业务增长至15%-16%（高于市场预期的 13%），YouTube增速亦可能达14%-15%（市场预期13%）。四季度运营费用预计为280亿美元，同比增长13%，运营利润率或同比提升119个基 点。 受Meta大幅上调资本开支指引的影响，美银将Alphabet 2026年资本开支预期上调14%至1390亿美元，显著高于市场预期的1190亿美元。 四季度业绩预期上调，广告业务有望超预期 美银证券上调了Alphabet第四季度营收预期。其中，搜索业务营收预期从615亿美元上调至619亿美元，同比增长15%，增速与三季度持平； YouTube广告营收预期从118亿美元上调至120亿 ...

Core Insights - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year where AI inference workloads may surpass training workloads, with inference expected to account for the majority of AI capital expenditures by 2030, potentially reaching 75% of the estimated $1.2 trillion [1][4]. Group 1: AI Capital Expenditure and Market Performance - Despite concerns regarding funding, valuations, and interest rate fluctuations, the continuous growth in AI capital expenditures is driving strong performance in the semiconductor sector [1]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has risen approximately 13% year-to-date, marking the second-best January performance in the past 20 years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1% increase [1]. - The recent surge in semiconductor stocks is primarily led by storage chip manufacturers, semiconductor equipment suppliers, and analog chip producers, rather than major players like NVIDIA and Broadcom [1]. Group 2: Differentiated Opportunities for Chip Suppliers - The shift towards inference workloads will create differentiated opportunities for various types of chip suppliers, including GPUs, CPUs, and ASICs, while also impacting storage and semiconductor equipment suppliers [3]. - NVIDIA maintains a leading position with a comprehensive product lineup across both training and inference domains, supported by supply assurance advantages [5]. - AMD is viewed as a reliable second supplier of general-purpose chips, with recent stock price fluctuations attributed to market concerns over TSMC's 2nm process, which is still on track according to analysts [5]. Group 3: Optical Connectivity and Market Dynamics - Demand for optical connectivity is real, but recent price increases may be excessive; optical transceiver and component suppliers are among the strongest performers after storage chips [6]. - The necessity for optical connections is underscored by the expanding scale and bandwidth requirements of AI clusters, with NVIDIA's upcoming photonic switch expected to act as a potential catalyst [6]. - However, evidence of interest in co-packaged optics (CPO) from major cloud service providers is limited, primarily due to operational complexities and control over the bill of materials shifting to NVIDIA and Broadcom [6].

据媒体报道，这项被称为"Project Vault"的计划将通过美国进出口银行提供的100亿美元贷款，结合16.7亿美元的私人资本，为汽车制造商、科技 公司及其他制造业巨头采购和储存矿产。这将是美国私营部门首个此类储备项目，不仅规模创下纪录，其运作模式也类似于国家的战略石油储 备。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普正准备启动一项总额达120亿美元的战略关键矿产储备计划，旨在通过建立商业库存机制，保护美国制造商免受供应链冲 击，并进一步强化国家工业安全。 这一计划已吸引了包括通用汽车、Alphabet旗下的谷歌以及波音公司在内的十多家行业巨头参与。特朗普定于周一会见GM首席执行官Mary Barra 和矿业亿万富翁Robert Friedland，与此同时，美国进出口银行董事会也将于同日投票批准这项创纪录的15年期贷款授权。 受此消息影响，市场预计该计划将为相关大宗商品价格波动提供缓冲，并直接利好美国国内矿产供应链。 美国稀土股周一盘前交易中上涨，上涨股包括：美国稀土涨6.11%、美国锑业涨5.3%、Critical金属涨8.4%、MP材料涨4.6%、Ramaco Resources涨 3.7%、NioCorp涨4.6% ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in trading of metal and mining stocks has abruptly halted due to a significant sell-off triggered by a rebound in the US dollar, highlighting the volatility that can arise from speculative retail investor participation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Retail investors injected approximately $171 million into the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) on Thursday, marking the largest single-day net inflow for this group [1]. - Following the nomination of a hawkish candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, the dollar strengthened, leading to a sharp decline in precious metal prices, with gold dropping 9% and silver plummeting over 20% on the same day [2][6]. - The iShares Silver Trust experienced its largest drop since its inception in 2006, while the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index faced its worst decline since 2008 [2]. Group 2: Retail Investor Behavior - The increasing participation of retail investors, characterized by a pursuit of short-term gains and erratic positions, raises concerns about further market volatility [6]. - The SLV fund became the second most actively traded asset on Interactive Brokers, with its trading activity doubling compared to the previous week [6]. - Retail investors have shown a strong interest in the metal and mining sector, with eight new stocks from this sector added to Jefferies LLC's basket of popular retail stocks [7]. Group 3: Institutional Investor Perspective - Despite the downturn in precious metals, some institutional investors view the sell-off in industrial metals as a buying opportunity, citing potential catalysts such as AI infrastructure development and government fiscal expansion [8]. - Barclays noted that the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index has risen approximately 30% from recent lows, but this is still below the average 170% increase seen in metal rebound cycles since the 1990s [8]. - The current market dislocation presents a unique opportunity for value-seeking investors, particularly in industrial metal stocks compared to the crowded precious metal sector [8].

特斯拉在欧洲市场的销售困境在新年伊始进一步加剧，这个电动汽车制造巨头在该地区两个主要电动车 市场的注册量出现大幅下滑，凸显其在欧洲大陆面临的多重挑战正在持续发酵。 据法国汽车协会PFA周日公布的数据，特斯拉1月在法国的销量同比暴跌42%，仅售出661辆汽车，创下 三年多以来的最低水平。在去年欧洲市场中表现相对亮眼的挪威，特斯拉1月注册量更是骤降88%。 但这一趋势在今年1月戛然而止。挪威政府上月收紧了增值税免税规定，导致整个行业销量在1月下降 76%，特斯拉注册量更是暴跌88%。 这一政策调整的影响显示，特斯拉在挪威此前的销售增长在很大程度上依赖于税收优惠政策，而非品牌 自身的市场竞争力。 竞争压力加剧 这一销售滑坡延续了特斯拉2025年在欧洲的整体颓势。去年全年，特斯拉在欧洲的销量下降27%，而同 期整个欧洲电动车市场注册量却增长了30%。 特斯拉在欧洲市场份额的流失，既受到埃隆·马斯克政治立场引发的消费者抵制影响，也面临着来自大 众、Stellantis等本土车企以及比亚迪等中国制造商日益激烈的竞争压力。 法国市场跌至谷底 法国是欧洲第三大电动车注册市场，仅次于德国和英国。但特斯拉在该市场的表现已跌至20 ...

黄金正面临自2024年牛市开启以来最关键的技术测试之一。在经历了一轮由过度拥挤的动量交易引发的剧烈抛售后，金价已回落至去年9月以来的 陡峭趋势线附近，并在夜间的迷你闪崩中测试了50日均线。 据The Market Ear分析，金价必须在4600美元（上下浮动50美元）附近企稳，以维持其建设性的市场结构。当前的下跌主要是由于前期过度的"错 失恐惧症"（FOMO）交易以及缺乏下行风险管理所致，相对强弱指数（RSI）已从91骤降至46，显示出市场已从极度超买迅速转为自去年8月以来 的最低超卖水平。 然而，市场结构的脆弱性依然令人担忧。花旗研究指出，过去三年黄金持有者积累的账面利润高达约20万亿美元，而推动本轮上涨的资金流入仅 约1万亿美元。这意味着仅需5%的获利盘回吐，就足以抵消全球所有的实物需求，这种巨大的存量获利盘如同一把悬在金价上方的"达摩克利斯之 剑"。 尽管短期内仍有支撑，但机构对中期前景已转趋谨慎。花旗维持未来0至3个月5000美元/盎司的目标价，但预计随着地缘政治风险在2026年下半年 消退以及美联储独立性的确认，金价将在2027年回落至4000美元，跌幅或达20%。 关键技术位与风险管理 从技术层面 ...

Group 1 - SpaceX is in advanced talks to merge with AI company xAI, indicating a significant move towards integrating its business empire [1] - The merger could potentially include SpaceX's rocket business, Starlink satellite network, social media platform X, and Grok AI chatbot under one corporate structure [1] - xAI's shares may be exchanged for SpaceX shares as part of the proposed merger, with two entities established in Nevada to facilitate the transaction [1] Group 2 - SpaceX has previously considered merging with Tesla, driven by investor interest, and any deal could attract significant interest from infrastructure funds and sovereign wealth funds [2] - Elon Musk envisions sending data centers into space to perform complex AI computations, with different merger proposals potentially serving various aspects of this vision [2] - SpaceX's IPO is anticipated around June, with a valuation expected to exceed $1 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history [2][3] Group 3 - SpaceX has engaged investment banks such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley for its IPO, with Robinhood seeking a key role in the process [3] - xAI recently raised $20 billion in an oversubscribed funding round, surpassing its initial target, and is now valued at $230 billion [3] - Tesla has agreed to invest approximately $20 billion in xAI, further consolidating Musk's control over his ventures [3]

中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强2月2日在山东调研。 李强首先来到济南二机床集团有限公司， 察看"灯塔工厂"生产线，详细询问减材制造、增材制造等工艺以及新材料应用情况，对企业通过数智化 转型持续提升竞争力表示赞许。李强说，要积极利用人工智能技术对生产制造全链条全周期进行重塑。 在保持规模优势基础上更加注重科技创新，推动技术产品迭代升级。要根据相关产业发展需求，持续加 大研发投入，不断增加优质供给。在聊热入济供热北线4号中继能源泵站，李强深入了解聊热入济等工 作进展，对当地供热"一张网"建设予以肯定。李强指出，要加强区域能源统筹利用，推进管网设施联 通，优化供热计量方式，加快绿色低碳技术研发应用，将工业余热转化为稳定清洁热源。李强听取山东 省能源建设和核电发展情况汇报，要求统筹抓好清洁能源项目建设和运行安全，提升技术水平和监管能 力，更好助力构建新型能源体系。 调研期间，李强主持召开省市县乡四级政府负责同志代表座谈会， 听取对《政府工作报告》和《"十五五"规划纲要（草案）》两个征求意见稿及政府工作的意见建议。李 强强调，去年中国经济在应对冲击中实现新的发展，今年我们要继续坚定信心、克难奋进。各级政府要 按照党 ...

Core Insights - The AI social platform Moltbook, which claimed to have 1.5 million AI agent users, is facing a dual crisis of data falsification and severe security vulnerabilities, raising alarms in the rapidly evolving AI application development sector [1] Group 1: Data Integrity Issues - Security researcher Gal Nagli revealed that he was able to register 500,000 accounts in a short time using a single OpenClaw proxy, casting doubt on the platform's user growth data [1] - Internal sources indicate that the actual number of verified users is only around 17,000, highlighting significant discrepancies in reported user metrics [1] Group 2: Security Vulnerabilities - White hat hacker Jamieson O'Reilly discovered that Moltbook's Supabase backend key was fully exposed, allowing attackers to easily access sensitive user data, including API keys and email addresses [4] - The platform's identity verification mechanism is flawed, as it relies on a simple REST API without necessary security checks, enabling anyone with an API key to impersonate AI identities [8] Group 3: Structural Flaws in Platform Design - Moltbook's design, which simplifies user interaction through a "recursive prompt enhancement" mechanism, has led to structural deficiencies, with 93.5% of comments going unanswered and over a third of messages being repetitive [6] - The lack of a web login feature means users can only manage their AI agents through API keys, complicating the process of fixing vulnerabilities without risking user access [13] Group 4: Industry Reflection on AI Development Standards - Despite the controversies, Andrej Karpathy, former AI head at Tesla, expressed cautious interest in the technology behind Moltbook, acknowledging the platform's issues while recognizing its potential for large-scale AI agent interaction [14] - The incident reflects a broader industry challenge of balancing rapid innovation in AI applications with the need for robust security measures, emphasizing the urgency of establishing sound identity verification and access control mechanisms [15]