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心智观察所:独家对话|斯蒂文·洛雷:关于中国学术界,我有几点观察和建议
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2026-01-22 05:14
Core Insights - The article discusses the intersection of science and ethics in understanding consciousness, highlighting the work of Professor Steven Laureys, a leading figure in the field of consciousness research [1][2]. Group 1: Professor Steven Laureys' Background and Contributions - Professor Laureys has dedicated over two decades to exploring human consciousness, driven by a desire to understand the complexities of the brain, which he considers the most intricate object in the universe [1][5]. - He founded a prominent coma science research team in Belgium and has collaborated with Chinese teams to redefine consciousness, moving away from binary views to a more nuanced understanding of consciousness as a multi-dimensional spectrum [6][7]. Group 2: Advances in Consciousness Research - Significant breakthroughs in the last 20 years include the development of neuroimaging techniques that challenge previous assumptions about patients in comatose states, revealing that many retain thoughts and feelings [5][8]. - The terminology has evolved, with "vegetative state" now referred to as "unresponsive wakefulness syndrome," reflecting a better understanding of brain plasticity and recovery mechanisms [7][9]. Group 3: Clinical Applications and Future Directions - Research has shown that advanced techniques, such as brain-computer interfaces, can facilitate communication with patients previously deemed unresponsive, fundamentally changing perceptions of coma patients [8][10]. - The integration of artificial intelligence in research is enhancing the ability to analyze complex data from brain scans, which is crucial for improving patient care and outcomes [13]. Group 4: Ethical Considerations in Medical Decision-Making - The article emphasizes the importance of ethical dimensions in medical decision-making, particularly when diagnosing and prognosing patients with consciousness disorders [14]. - It advocates for the establishment of advance directives to guide medical teams in respecting patients' values and wishes when they are unable to communicate [14].
美国会横插一脚:不许卖,中国用三流芯片都能干翻我们
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2026-01-22 03:21
【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 上周二(13日),以25%销售额抽成为条件,美国特朗普政府正式批准英伟达对华出口H200人工智能 (AI)芯片, 但这遭到两党对华鹰派议员的强烈反对。 仅仅一周后,为抢夺先进AI芯片对华销售的审查权,美国众议院外交事务委员会于周三(21日)以压 倒性优势表决通过一项两党联合提案。该法案明确要求,参照军售审查模式,由国会对先进AI芯片出 口实施监管。 据彭博社22日报道,依据这项法案,美国政府在批准先进AI芯片出口前,必须事先通知国会;国会则 有权通过联合决议案,审查并否决针对中国、俄罗斯、伊朗及其他所谓"敌对国家"的出口许可。 此外,法案明确规定,未来至少两年内全面禁止向中国出售英伟达更先进的Blackwell芯片,同时将现 行出口管制措施正式纳入法律条文。 特朗普在白宫会晤黄仁勋 视频截图 据报道,该法案以42票赞成、2票反对在委员会获批,下一步将提交众议院全体会议表决。该法案仍需 参众两院通过并获得特朗普的签署才能生效。 目前参议院尚未出台配套法案,但部分参议员已另行提交议案,其效力或将直接禁止H200芯片对华销 售。 报道指出,本次提案是美国国会最新一次试图限制特朗普政府推动英 ...
苹果官宣手机电脑等最高降价1000
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2026-01-22 02:56
1月19日,Counterpoint Research发布的最新报告显示,受存储短缺导致价格上涨影响,2025年第四季度 中国智能手机出货量同比下降1.6%,全年同比下降0.6%。除第一季度外,2025年其余季度均录得同比 收缩。 从第四季度来看,苹果以21.8%的市场份额领跑国内市场,OPPO以15.8%的市场份额位居第二,vivo以 15.7%的份额紧随其后,华为、小米、荣耀分别排名第四至第六。从全年来看,华为以16.9%的市场份 额夺得榜首,但前三名并未拉开明显差距。苹果、vivo分别以16.7%、16.4%的市场份额位列第二、第三 名。小米(15.7%)、OPPO(15.5%)、荣耀(13.4%)分列第四至第六。 1月22日,苹果中国官网上线新春限时优惠活动,用户于2026年1月24日0时1分至1月27日23时59分以符 合条件的支付方式购买iPhone、Mac、iPad和Apple Watch等指定产品,最高可立省1000元。 不过观察者网注意到,最新发布的iPhone 17系列手机产品不在降价范围内。 该机构分析认为,苹果四季度出货量同比大增28%,得益于iPhone 17系列的强劲吸引力和供应量 ...
151亿营收背后,君乐宝的“高负债扩张”与低温野心
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2026-01-22 02:52
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry is experiencing a significant shift with Junlebao's recent move to accelerate its IPO plans, aiming for a listing by 2025, despite facing challenges such as high debt levels and intense market competition [2][4]. Company Overview - Junlebao has established itself as a major player in the dairy sector, ranking third in China, following Yili and Mengniu, with a market share of 24% in the high-end fresh milk segment through its brand "Yuexianhuo" and leading the low-temperature yogurt market with "Jianchun" [3][12]. - The company reported a revenue of 15.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 940 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, with a notable increase in net profit margin from 3.4% to 6% over the past three years [3][22]. Business Strategy - Junlebao is focusing on low-temperature dairy products as a key growth area, which is seen as essential for differentiation and value enhancement in the competitive landscape [5][6]. - The company has a robust supply chain with 66% self-sourced milk and over 5,500 distributors, allowing it to leverage economies of scale [3][21]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue from low-temperature liquid milk products reached 6.44 billion yuan, contributing nearly half of its total revenue for the first nine months of 2025 [9][12]. - Despite strong revenue growth, Junlebao faces a high debt ratio of 77%, indicating financial pressure from its aggressive expansion strategy [3][28]. Market Dynamics - The low-temperature liquid milk market in China is projected to grow significantly, with penetration rates expected to rise from 25.3% in 2024 to 31.8% by 2029, highlighting the competitive nature of this segment [24][25]. - Junlebao must navigate fierce competition from established players like Mengniu and Yili, as well as regional brands, to maintain its market position [25][26]. Future Outlook - The company plans to use funds raised from its IPO to enhance production facilities, strengthen brand marketing, and support channel expansion, aiming to alleviate its high debt burden and sustain growth [28][29]. - Junlebao's ability to convert its technological and product advantages into sustainable financial and brand strength will be crucial for its long-term success in the industry [29].
华为AI眼镜被曝上半年发布
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2026-01-22 02:51
Core Viewpoint - Huawei is set to release its AI glasses in the first half of this year, featuring various functionalities and a lightweight design, supported by the HarmonyOS for seamless cross-device collaboration [1][3]. Group 1: Product Features and Market Trends - The upcoming Huawei AI glasses will come in three colors and support functions such as photo and video capture, audio playback, and real-time translation [1]. - The global smart eyewear market is projected to see significant growth, with an expected shipment of 4.296 million units by Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 74.1% [3]. - The Chinese market is also expected to grow, with a forecasted shipment of 4.508 million units by 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 77.7% [3]. Group 2: Industry Competition and Consumer Sentiment - Major tech companies, including Meta, Google, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Baidu, are entering the AI glasses market, indicating a shift from niche products to a growing demand for smart eyewear [3]. - Despite the high interest in smart glasses, consumer feedback highlights concerns over the redundancy of features compared to smartphones, comfort issues due to weight, and battery life limitations [4]. - The market is transitioning from viewing smart glasses as smartphone accessories to recognizing them as independent smart devices, with AI integration becoming more prevalent [4]. Group 3: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - The introduction of government subsidies for smart glasses priced under 6000 yuan, offering a 15% discount up to 500 yuan, is expected to encourage consumer adoption [4]. - The competition in the smart eyewear market is shifting towards user experience, with comfort, practical AI functionalities, and ecosystem completeness becoming critical factors [5]. - Leading manufacturers are focusing on ecosystem collaboration and innovative scenarios to transform smart glasses from novelty items to everyday smart assistants [5].
加拿大有人眼红:就算便宜,也别买中国车
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2026-01-22 02:04
他接着呼吁加拿大政府支持通用汽车公司、斯特兰蒂斯集团、福特汽车公司、丰田汽车公司以及本田汽 车公司。而金斯顿所在协会主要代表前三家公司的利益。 【文/观察者网 张菁娟】加拿大近期宣布调整对中国电动汽车进口政策,国内有些人不乐意了。 据彭博社报道,当地时间1月21日,安大略省省长福特(Doug Ford)在汽车制造商与工人代表的簇拥 下,公开呼吁加拿大人抵制中国产电动汽车,即便中国车售价低于本土产品,也应坚决拒绝购买。 "抵制中国电动汽车,支持本土造车企业。"福特声称,对中国电动汽车及相关投资敞开大门,或将重创 加拿大本土汽车产业,同时冲击本地就业岗位。 加拿大汽车制造商协会主席金斯顿(Brian Kingston)则宣称,中国车企在加拿大生产的汽车背后,存 在"中国政府的大规模补贴",此举"会给加美两国的持续合作带来风险"。 加拿大生产的汽车,绝大多数最终销往美国市场。福特声称,无论对加拿大、美国还是墨西哥来说,加 拿大对中国电动汽车政策的转向都对北美汽车市场有害无益。 当前,特朗普政府对加拿大汽车产业态度强硬,不仅坚称"美国不需要加拿大制造的汽车",还通过加征 乘用车关税打击加方产业,并施压车企将业务转移至 ...
出行观丨欧盟正在打一场保护主义下的产业升级算盘
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2026-01-22 01:47
Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has introduced a comprehensive cybersecurity legislative proposal, deemed the "strictest ever," mandating EU member states to remove Huawei and ZTE from their mobile networks within three years of the law's enactment, indicating a shift from recommendations to mandatory actions in telecommunications security [1][4]. Group 1: Legislative Impact - The new proposal extends beyond telecommunications, potentially restricting companies from 18 sensitive sectors, including connected vehicles, power and water supply systems, cloud computing, medical devices, drones, aerospace, and semiconductors, if a country is deemed a cybersecurity threat [4]. - Huawei has responded to the proposal, arguing that it violates fundamental legal principles of fairness and non-discrimination by targeting non-EU suppliers based on country of origin rather than factual evidence and technical standards [4]. Group 2: Industry Implications - The legislative changes could significantly impact the automotive sector, particularly in the context of smart connected vehicles, as the freedom of choice in technology solutions may be replaced by security reviews, potentially barring Chinese companies from participating in critical components [5][7]. - The proposal could lead to systemic marginalization of Chinese technology standards in Europe, affecting the supply chain structure and increasing costs for European manufacturers who may have to opt for less mature and more expensive alternatives [7][11]. Group 3: Economic Considerations - The estimated cost of fully excluding Chinese equipment from 5G construction in Europe could reach approximately €550 billion (about ¥4.48 trillion), with the overall cost of transforming the telecommunications network projected at €2 trillion (about ¥16 trillion) [14][16]. - The financial burden of these changes may ultimately be passed on to consumers, raising product prices and complicating the market landscape for European companies [14][19]. Group 4: Strategic Objectives - The EU's move appears to be a strategic choice aimed at reshaping its technological landscape and reducing dependency on Chinese technology, pushing for local development of software and algorithms [11][13]. - This approach may lead to increased R&D costs for multinational companies, as they will need to maintain dual technology stacks to comply with different regulatory environments, further complicating the market dynamics [14][18].
对标美国的数据,我们需要6000万名飞行员
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2026-01-22 01:45
低空经济作为一种新兴的经济形态,正逐步成为推动我国经济社会发展的重要力量。随着技术的不断进 步和政策的逐步完善,低空经济在物流运输、旅游观光、农业植保等领域展现出巨大的潜力。 然而,机遇与挑战并存,如何在保障安全的前提下,实现低空资源的高效利用,是当前亟需解决的问 题。在观察者网"2026答案秀·思想者春晚"上,上海通用航空协会专家委员会主任、俄罗斯工程院外籍 院士任和从我国低空经济的机遇和挑战谈起,描绘了低空经济广阔的发展空间。 任和: 非常荣幸受到咱们观察者网的邀请,来给大家分享我国低空经济的机遇与挑战。 我2023年写了一本书,2024年出版以后,国家在2024年初中央经济工作会议和人大会议上,把低空经 济、商业航天,还有生物制药列为新兴战略性行业来加以推广,所以我这本书也成了网红图书了。 首先我想跟大家分享一下我国低空经济的由来和概况。 大家知道,2023年12月的中央经济工作会议,把生物制药、商业航天列为战略新兴产业,2024年3月, 李强总理也在政府工作报告中写到,积极打造生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等新的增长引擎。 国家发改委还特别成立了低空经济司,也制定了政策,所谓的"先郊区后城市""先货运后 ...
量子计算的瓶颈:处理器再快,也必须等待数据
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2026-01-22 00:46
【文/观察者网专栏作者 徐令予】 关于量子计算的争论,大多在量子比特的数字游戏与工程实现的泥潭中打转。公众叙事中默认了一个近 乎迷信的前提:只要处理器足够快,算力便会如期而至。然而,这个在计算技术发展史中早已被证伪的 命题,正借着量子的外壳重新还魂。 现代计算的战场,不在于运算本身,而在于数据的"搬运"与"等待"。 过去数十年取得的算力红利,其 实主要来自数据调度与存储架构的持续演进。英伟达的黄仁勋在2026年CES展会上强调指出:当前AI算 力的瓶颈已从传统的算术计算单元扩展到内存带宽、数据移动效率及系统级延迟,这源于AI模型规模 的指数级增长和物理AI对实时性的严苛要求。 本文并非试图否定量子计算的研究价值,而是希望从计算体系结构与算力本体的角度,重新审视量子计 算的技术承诺。文章将首先澄清"算力并不等同于处理器速度"这一常被忽视的基本事实,继而讨论量子 计算在存储与数据调度层面所面临的结构性约束,从而为当前量子计算的争议提供一个新的视角。 一、算力不只是处理器速度,内存往往才是决定因素。 在关于计算能力的讨论中,长期存在一个误区:算力等同于中央处理器(CPU)的运算速度。这种理 解或许符合人们对"计算" ...
南极土著|达沃斯论坛:欧洲的失落、反思和挣扎
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2026-01-22 00:34
【文/南极土著】 今年的达沃斯,特朗普放话要拿下格陵兰,还要对周末在格陵兰参加联合军演的8个欧洲国家加征10%关税,成了全场避不开的"房间里的大象"。 特朗普在社交媒体上晒出一张电脑合成图:图中的他正在格陵兰岛插旗,身旁一块木牌赫然写着"格陵兰岛,美国领土,始于2026年"。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩和法国总统马克龙都讲了话,但在真正和特朗普当面交锋前,两个人的措辞都比较克制。 直到最后,冯德莱恩才点名格陵兰问题,直说这10%的关税是个错误,美国不该这么对待盟友。她强调,欧盟和美国去年7月已经达成贸易协议,协议就是 协议,既然握了手就该守信用;欧盟和美国不只是盟友,更是朋友。至于格陵兰,丹麦的主权和领土完整不容谈判;如果美方担心的是中国和俄罗斯在北极 的存在,欧盟愿意和美国一起合作,维护北极地区的安全。 1月20日,马克龙在达沃斯论坛发表开幕致辞。 图源: 法媒 这套东西对美国并不是空喊口号,美国国防工业高度依赖欧洲提供的关键技术和服务,而这些恰恰集中在这次被特朗普点名加了关税的北欧和西欧国家手 里,从反无人机技术到情报软件都有。如果欧盟真动用出口管制,美国确实会疼。 现在欧盟心里很清楚,美国靠不住,俄罗斯又得 ...