Core Points - The Guangxi Futures Exchange announced risk control measures for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in 2025, effective from September 29, 2025 [1] Group 1: Futures Contract Adjustments - The price fluctuation limits for industrial silicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, with speculative trading margin set at 12% and hedging margin at 11% [1] - The price fluctuation limits for polysilicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, with speculative trading margin set at 13% and hedging margin at 12% [1] - The price fluctuation limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted to 10%, with speculative trading margin set at 12% and hedging margin at 11% [1] Group 2: Trading Resumption and Further Adjustments - Trading will resume on October 9, 2025, and if the largest contracts in each category do not experience a one-sided price limit with continuous quotes, the price fluctuation limits and margin standards will revert to pre-adjustment levels [1] - For lithium carbonate futures contracts, the price fluctuation limit will be adjusted to 9%, with speculative trading margin set at 11% and hedging margin at 10% [1] - In cases where the adjusted price fluctuation limits and margin standards differ from the current ones, the higher of the two will be implemented [1]

2025年8月28日，由国信期货有限责任公司(以下简称国信期货)牵头、人保财险烟台市分公司承保的 2025年郑商所烟台市苹果"保险+期货"收入险项目启动仪式成功举办。招远市和蓬莱区农业农村部门负 责人，国信期货及子公司国信金阳、人保财险烟台分公司、上海东吴久盈投资、广发商贸、招证资本等 企业及种植户代表共50余人参与启动仪式，标志着烟台苹果产业在运用金融工具应对市场与自然风险方 面进入新阶段。 随后的环节中，招商期货、广发期货、东吴期货、格林大华期货等机构代表依次分享了保险期货市场分 析与运作经验。人保财险招远公司农业保险部专项解读了保险明白纸、保险方案及承保理赔流程，帮助 农户清晰了解投保权益。招远市农业农村局与蓬莱区农技站领导分别从政策支持与农业技术角度，强调 该项目对区域农业韧性和农户增收的积极作用。最后，多位种植户代表结合自身参保经历发言，认 可"保险+期货"模式切实降低了经营风险，并提出优化建议。 本次启动仪式展示了"保险+期货"模式在烟台苹果产区的持续创新与深入实践，尤其是收入险的推出， 标志着金融助农迈向更精准、更全面的新层次。收入险项目由国信期货牵头，人保财险烟台分公司承 保，多家期货公司共同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a tight balance between supply and demand, with a potential shift towards oversupply as recycled lead production resumes while demand growth remains limited [1][3]. Supply Side Summary - Recycled lead smelters are significantly reducing production due to weak downstream demand and tight raw material supply, leading to a substantial contraction in lead ingot supply [1]. - Overseas mining operations, such as Endeavor and Vedanta-Zinc India, are expected to contribute to a slight increase in supply, while domestic mining production remains high but with limited room for further growth [1]. - The raw material inventory at smelting plants has significantly decreased, and processing fees are continuously declining, indicating a tight supply situation [1]. Demand Side Summary - Demand for lead ingots is increasing due to a rise in electric bicycle battery production, which is boosting the operating rates of lead-acid battery companies [2]. - However, the automotive sector is facing challenges, with a slowdown in electric vehicle sales and limited replacement demand for automotive batteries, leading to a negative impact on overall lead ingot demand [2]. - The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, further constraining demand growth [2]. Macro Perspective - The Federal Reserve's clear path towards interest rate cuts is anticipated to have limited impact on the lead market, as the market has already priced in these changes [3]. - The lead market is expected to maintain a tight balance until October, with strong support for lead prices; however, as recycled lead production resumes and demand growth is insufficient, a shift towards oversupply may occur, posing a risk of price correction [3].

铜原料供应紧张，可能向冶炼端传导。铜精矿供应持续紧张，现货TC表现弱势，处于-40美元/吨附近。同时，近期硫酸价格下跌，将压制冶炼厂利润。此 外，废铜进口持续亏损，或影响后续废铜进口量。铜原料紧张向冶炼端传导，部分冶炼企业将在9—10月进入检修期，预计后期精铜产量将环比下降。从更 长周期来看，市场预期2026年铜精矿长单加工费可能低于2025年，全球自有矿山比例较低的冶炼企业将面临停产或者减产的可能，进而使得精铜供应阶段性 减少。 短期下游企业补库，长期铜消费依然存在增量。当前，铜价调整带动下游需求，但整体增量依然有限。国庆假期前，下游企业将进行节前备库，这有利于库 存下降和现货升贴水走强。从更长周期来看，全球不同行业和不同国家铜消费呈现结构性变化，但总消费依然处于增长状态。新能源行业中的新能源汽车、 充电桩等市场表现良好，且市场对AI发展所带来的铜消费潜力存在较强预期。从传统行业来看，国内房地产、基建行业在系列稳增长对冲举措落地的情况 下，增速有所修复。尤其是基建中电网行业逆周期特性较为明显，投资增速处于较高水平，明显支撑了铜的消费水平。从海外市场来看，美国铜消费空间较 大，美国电网老化问题严重，需要大量投 ...

自三季度以来，"反内卷"政策带动商品市场看多情绪升温，虽然钢材行业尚未出台具体政策，但不锈钢 期货估值偏低，叠加钢厂减产消息较多，盘面明显反弹，主力合约突破13300元/吨大关。8月中旬，随 着市场看多情绪降温，不锈钢期货价格快速下行。进入9月，基本面韧性较强叠加原料价格上涨、下游 需求回暖等因素，不锈钢期货价格重回上行通道。 原料价格坚挺 基本面仍存韧性 从短期来看，在供需平稳的情况下，不锈钢期货价格或维持"下有底、上有顶"的区间震荡态势，中期可 以尝试在2512合约反弹后轻仓做空。 镍矿方面，虽然近期我国镍矿进口量季节性增加，港口库存明显回升，但菲律宾矿山挺价意愿较强，开 盘价较高。受近期镍矿事故频发影响，印尼9月第二期镍矿内贸基准价上涨0.2~0.3美元/吨，升水维持24 美元/吨不变。 镍铁方面，近期国内市场博弈加剧，虽然报价区间下滑至950~960元/镍点，但跌幅有限。根据Mysteel 数据，本周国内高镍铁出厂价报955元/镍点，到厂价报960元/镍点；印尼高镍铁舱底含税价报960元/镍 点，印尼镍铁FOB价报116美元/镍点。 铬矿方面，近期主流品种价格平稳。根据Mysteel数据，截至9月22 ...

在杨家明看来，相较于低硫燃料油，高硫燃料油有着更强的地缘属性。俄罗斯是全球主要的高硫燃料油 出口国。近年来，俄乌冲突以及美国和欧盟持续打击俄罗斯"影子油轮舰队"等事件都对其出口造成了较 大影响。尤其是今年5月以来，乌克兰持续袭击俄罗斯炼厂和港口，造成俄罗斯约5000万吨炼化产能受 损，影响燃料油产量约925万吨。相关数据显示，9月上半月俄罗斯石油制品总出口量降至194万桶／ 天，为2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来的最低值。 9月24日，国际油价持续上涨带动内盘燃料油期货价格同步上行。截至午盘收盘，主力2601合约上涨 3.70%，报2860元／吨；2510合约大涨5.45%，报2921元／吨。低硫燃料油主力2511合约收涨1.26%，报 3387元／吨。 市场人士表示，燃料油期货价格大幅波动是多因素共同作用的结果。 消息面上，据南华期货能源化工分析师凌川惠介绍，俄罗斯表示可能限制燃料油出口以保障国内供应， 同时美国总统特朗普近期的公开立场发生了明显转变，展现出对俄罗斯的不满。市场担忧俄罗斯原油供 应中断，国际油价和内盘原油系品种价格随之上涨。 光大期货能源化工分析师杜冰沁表示，8月至9月中旬，乌克兰的无人机袭击已导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a tight balance between supply and demand, with a significant reduction in lead ingot supply due to production cuts in recycling plants, while demand continues to grow. [1][4] Supply Side Summary - Recycling plants are reducing production due to weak downstream demand and tight raw material supply, leading to a significant contraction in lead ingot supply, despite strong demand. [1] - Overseas supply is expected to see a slight increase with the Endeavor mine ramping up shipments and the resumption of operations at Vedanta-Zinc India and Aripuan mines. [1] - Domestic mining production is at a high level, but further increases are limited, maintaining high ore production in the short term. [1] - Raw material inventory at smelting plants has significantly declined, and processing fees are continuously decreasing, with some smelting plants beginning winter stockpiling early. [1] Demand Side Summary - Demand for lead ingots is supported by increased battery demand from electric bicycles, which has led to a rise in operating rates for lead-acid battery companies. [3] - However, the automotive sector is facing challenges, with a slowdown in electric vehicle sales and limited replacement demand for automotive batteries, negatively impacting overall demand for lead ingots. [3] - The end of the "export rush" in the automotive sector is expected to lead to a noticeable decline in battery exports in the fourth quarter. [3] - Overall, the demand for lead ingots is unlikely to see significant growth, and purchasing demand is expected to weaken after the National Day holiday. [3] Macroeconomic Summary - The short-term path for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is relatively clear, but the market has already priced in these cuts, suggesting limited future impact. [4] - Before October, the lead ingot supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance, providing strong support for lead prices. [4] - As recycling companies gradually resume production and demand lacks further growth potential, the lead ingot supply and demand may shift towards a looser balance, posing a risk of price correction. [4]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices continue to rise, leading to a significant increase in domestic fuel oil futures prices, with the main contracts showing substantial gains [1][4]. Price Movements - As of the midday close, the main 2601 contract rose by 3.70% to 2860 CNY/ton, while the 2510 contract surged by 5.45% to 2921 CNY/ton. The low-sulfur fuel oil main 2511 contract increased by 1.26% to 3387 CNY/ton [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in fuel oil futures prices are attributed to multiple factors, including potential restrictions on fuel oil exports from Russia to secure domestic supply and geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Russia [4][5]. - Recent drone attacks in Ukraine have reportedly caused Russia to lose approximately 300,000 barrels per day of refining capacity, which could lead to further production cuts if attacks persist [4][5]. Supply and Demand Factors - High-sulfur fuel oil prices are experiencing greater increases compared to low-sulfur fuel oil due to a higher risk premium associated with high-sulfur fuel oil, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply disruptions from Russia [4][5]. - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is tightening, with recent data indicating a drop in Russia's oil product exports to 1.94 million barrels per day in early September, the lowest since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while high-sulfur fuel oil faces potential supply increases and weakening demand, low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains ample. Investors are advised to monitor changes in crude oil prices and refining capacity in Russia, especially during the upcoming holiday period [6].

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Since the third quarter, the "anti-involution" policy has boosted bullish sentiment in the commodity market, leading to a significant rebound in stainless steel futures, with the main contract breaking through 13,300 yuan/ton [1] - In mid-August, stainless steel futures prices quickly declined as market bullish sentiment cooled, but by September, prices returned to an upward trend due to strong fundamentals and rising raw material prices [1] Group 2: Raw Material Prices - Nickel ore prices remain firm despite a seasonal increase in imports and a rise in port inventories, with domestic prices influenced by strong pricing intentions from Philippine mines [2] - The domestic market for nickel iron has seen increased competition, with prices stabilizing around 950-960 yuan/nickel point, while Indonesian nickel iron prices are reported at 960 yuan/nickel point [2] - Chrome ore prices have remained stable, with current prices for South African chrome concentrate at approximately 57 yuan/ton, while future prices have increased to 284 USD/ton due to rising shipping costs [2] Group 3: Downstream Demand and Production - The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has led to a slight improvement in downstream demand for stainless steel, with August apparent consumption at 2.7529 million tons, a 4.16% month-on-month increase [4] - Social inventory of stainless steel has seen a "four consecutive declines" trend, with a 2.51% decrease to 987,100 tons as of September 18 [4] - Cold-rolled stainless steel production has rebounded, with July production at 1.4625 million tons and August at 1.4829 million tons, while September production is expected to reach 1.5156 million tons [4] Group 4: Price Outlook and Trading Strategy - In the short term, stainless steel futures are expected to continue a range-bound trading pattern, with 13,300 yuan/ton as the upper resistance and 12,750 yuan/ton as the lower support [5] - Factors such as rising raw material prices and steel mills' pricing intentions provide strong support for prices, while limited demand growth may hinder sustained price increases [5]

近期，PVC市场进入传统旺季，但需求疲软、供应增长等因素使期货价格持续承压，整体呈现"旺季不 旺"的状态。当前PVC期货市场的交易逻辑重回基本面，尽管短期供应小幅下降，但下游需求依然疲 软，基本面整体偏弱。 需求承压 国内需求方面，作为PVC最大的终端消费领域，房地产行业持续低迷严重拖累了需求恢复进度。数据显 示，2025年1—8月，国内房屋施工面积、新开工面积和竣工面积同比均出现两位数下滑。进入9月，虽 然PVC下游企业开工率有所提升，但整体订单情况仍一般，终端以逢低采购为主，市场交投气氛清淡。 出口需求方面，受印度反倾销税影响，部分企业存在"抢出口"行为，透支了部分需求。进入9月，出口 节奏明显放缓，订单增量有限。尽管国内企业正积极开拓非洲、东南亚等新兴市场，但受多重因素影 响，短期内难以形成稳定的需求增量。整体来看，出口对PVC价格的支撑作用减弱。 后市展望 整体来看，目前PVC市场基本面偏弱。在新增产能释放和行业保持高开工率的情况下，供应压力持续增 加；在房地产行业低迷和出口放缓的情况下，需求难有超预期表现。尽管10月可能迎来季节性检修高 峰，供应或阶段性收紧，但如果需求无法同步改善，去库速度依然偏慢 ...