东证衍生品研究院贵金属研究员徐颖介绍，美国为霸占格陵兰岛发出的关税威胁，导致美欧关系紧张，加之丹麦一家养老基金宣布将退出美债市场(理由 是美元信用受损)，导致市场风险偏好显著下降——美国股市、债市及汇市遭遇重挫，金价则强势上涨。"这既源于市场避险需求的提振，也反映出市场对 美元的信任度进一步降低。"她说。 据期货日报记者了解，今日金价创新高主要是受地缘局势紧张加剧、市场避险情绪高涨的影响。 1月21日，伦敦金价格开盘后一路走高，一度触及4888.17美元/盎司，再创新高，随后直线下跌。与此同时，当日沪金期货主力合约2604在突破1100元/克 后也开始回落，收盘报1092.3元/克。 刚刚，金价创新高后直线下跌。 需要注意的是，上海期货交易所20日晚间发布公告，调整相关期货合约的交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。其中，在贵金属方面，黄金期货2602、2603、 2604合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为16%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为17%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为18%；黄金期货2606、2608、2610、2612、 2702合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为15%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为16%，一般持仓交易保证金 ...

去年四季度以来，多套苯乙烯装置进入检修停车状态。在目前仍停车的5套装置中，仅泉州中化的45万 吨／年装置计划于1月底复产，其余装置尚未有明确复产计划。因此，即便近期苯乙烯利润有所改善， 短期内也难以带动开工负荷及产量出现明显提升。 由于苯乙烯行业开工负荷下降，市场供应趋紧，整体进入去库存周期。截至1月12日，江苏苯乙烯港口 样本库存为10.06万吨，较前一周下降3.17万吨，环比降幅达23.96%；苯乙烯商品库存为5.99万吨，较上 一统计周期下降1.74万吨，环比下降22.51%。库存下降幅度超出预期，成为近期苯乙烯价格反弹较为显 著的重要原因。不过，与去年同期相比，目前苯乙烯库存仍处于偏高水平。 成本难以向下传导 当前来看，苯乙烯行业开工率处于偏低水平，库存降幅超出预期，叠加内外宏观环境改善，预计其反弹 态势有望延续。 开工负荷处于低位 2026年1月，受伊朗、委内瑞拉等地缘局势动荡影响，国际原油价格触底反弹，带动化工品成本整体抬 升，苯乙烯价格亦随之回升。值得关注的是，苯乙烯价格涨幅明显高于其上游原料纯苯，推动其利润扩 大至每吨300元左右。然而，尽管盈利空间有所改善，苯乙烯行业整体开工负荷却仍处于较低 ...

三是"新"的动能持续壮大。我们着力推进科技创新和产业创新深度融合，深入实施关键核心技术攻关工 程、产业基础再造工程和重大技术装备攻关工程。超大直径盾构机、重型燃气轮机等重大装备实现突 破，人工智能为工业经济增长注入强劲动力，6G第一阶段技术试验形成超300项关键技术储备。 四是"活"的效果持续显现。我们加快推进重点领域改革，实施减轻企业负担专项行动，加快加力清理拖 欠企业账款，推动惠企政策落实落地，全力营造"一池活水"的企业发展环境。综合整治"内卷式"竞争成 效初显，新能源汽车、光伏等重点行业竞争生态持续改善。5G和千兆光网融入97个国民经济大类中的 91个，工业互联网实现41个工业大类全覆盖，为经济社会发展注入更多活力。 期货日报网讯（记者 肖佳煊）1月21日，国新办举行新闻发布会，工业和信息化部副部长张云明在会上 表示，回顾2025年工业和信息化发展，呈现"稳""进""新""活"四个特点。 一是"稳"的态势持续巩固。我们坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，出台新一轮十大重点行业稳 增长工作方案，支持工业大省挑大梁，有力拉动工业经济平稳增长。2025年，规模以上工业增加值同比 增长5.9%，制造业增加值占 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Futures Company Asset Management Business Filing Management Rules" has led to a significant transformation in the futures industry, shifting from a reliance on channel business to a focus on high-quality, actively managed asset management that leverages the unique characteristics of futures and derivatives [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The futures asset management business is undergoing a profound change characterized by "quality improvement and quantity reduction," moving away from extensive reliance on channel business towards a model centered on active management [1][2]. - As of the end of 2025, the number of active futures asset management institutions is expected to decrease to 91, down from 110 at the beginning of the previous year, indicating a trend towards license clearance and consolidation in the industry [2]. - The shift towards higher entry barriers and reduced channel business is seen as beneficial for fostering healthy competition and enhancing the overall professional level of the industry [2][6]. Group 2: Focus on Active Management - The industry is collectively moving towards active management strategies, with a focus on utilizing the professional advantages of futures and derivatives [3]. - Current transformations in futures asset management are concentrated in areas such as Fund of Funds (FOF), Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA), macro hedging, multi-strategy arbitrage, and fixed income plus [3]. - Companies like Jin Xin Futures and Zhe Shang Futures are developing distinctive product lines that cater to various risk-return preferences and investment strategies, emphasizing active management and the integration of fundamental research with quantitative tools [3][4]. Group 3: Structural Adjustments and Competitive Focus - The industry is expected to experience structural adjustments in asset management scale and competitive landscape due to the ongoing removal of channel business and increased operational thresholds [6]. - While the overall asset management scale may decline in the short term, the demand for actively managed products is anticipated to grow, leading to a more diversified product offering [6]. - The market share of institutions with specialized research and investment capabilities is expected to increase, as the industry transitions towards a high-quality, professionalized model [6][7].

久久为功，驰而不息。在2024年静宁县牛产业综合保险项目取得良好成效的基础上，1月14日，2025年 度"金融赋能红牛产业暨'保险+期货'培训会"在甘肃省静宁县隆重举行，标志着该项目连续第二年落地 实施。这是金融服务静宁县红牛产业发展，强化保障养殖户收入，稳定农户养殖积极性的重要举措和全 新篇章。 古城镇二堡村村支书曹彦龙已经是第二年参加启动会了，他满怀热情，来之前就积极发动村民投保了。 他高兴的讲到，牛产业综合保险，是村集体最为期待的助农项目，去年为老百姓降低了养殖成本，让村 民"能养牛"和"敢养牛"了，了年底红牛还能卖上个好价钱，保护了村民的养殖积极性。今年项目继续实 施，规模还扩大了，让我们全村更加坚定的走好养牛这条致富路。作为全村的带头人，他已将更多学 习"保险+期货"知识当做了今年个人的工作重点。 作为"平凉红牛"的核心产区，当前，静宁县正依托万头肉牛育肥基地、牛肉深加工冷链物流项目等载 体，推动产业向数字化养殖、精深加工、品牌营销延伸，而"保险+期货"带来的收益稳定性，加速"养牛 大县"向"养牛强县"迈进，充分展现了中投银河的金融帮扶从"输血"到"造血"的核心升级。 会上，银河期货、太平洋财险、深 ...

1月20日，碳酸锂期货价格盘中大涨，尾盘多个合约触及涨停，主力2605合约收涨8.99%，报160500元/ 吨。 业内人士认为，碳酸锂期货价格昨日上涨的主要原因大概率是国内供应扰动快速发酵，引发市场对供应 收紧的担忧。 消息面上，江西产区再次受到市场关注。据悉，近期市场传出宁德时代枧下窝锂矿环评出现进展的消 息，同时有消息称江西部分矿山有停产考虑。 "本次碳酸锂期价上涨的核心驱动因素是市场对供应收缩的担忧。"国投安信期货分析师吴江解释称，随 着江西产区供应扰动增加，尾矿处理成为锂矿生产环节的重点，市场担忧其他在产矿山面临类似约束， 推动碳酸锂价格强势上涨。 弘则研究分析师张峻瑞认为，随着新矿产法及《固体废物综合治理行动计划》发布，矿山生产规范和环 保监管有趋严态势，但目前网传江西其他矿山有停产风险，暂无官方文件或企业官方公告。在可靠信息 出炉之前，应谨慎对待此类市场干扰。 广期所相关负责人表示，后续，广期所将密切跟踪碳酸锂期、现货市场情况，加强预研预判，并根据市 场情况采取针对性风控措施，保障期货市场功能有效发挥。同时坚持监管"长牙带刺"、有棱有角，切实 履行市场一线监管职责，从严、从速查处违规交易，切实维 ...

相关数据显示，截至2026年1月16日当周，螺纹钢周产量仅为190.3万吨。247家钢厂高炉开工率为 78.84%，日均铁水产量为228.01万吨，均较去年高点明显回落。 预计春节前螺纹钢产量将维持低位，节后产量的回升节奏，主要取决于钢厂利润的修复程度及"反内 卷"等产量调控政策的实际执行力度。 2025年下半年，螺纹钢需求整体持续走弱，至11月，钢筋表观消费量已降至1333.7万吨，较同年6月高 点显著缩减了293.4万吨。 分项来看，核心驱动出现结构性分化，房地产与基建构成主要拖累。数据显示，2025年房地产投资、新 开工面积分别下降17.2%和20.4%；基建投资（不含电力）下降2.2%，导致螺纹钢需求萎缩。 制造业与"以旧换新"方面，其增量需求主要集中在板材领域，对螺纹钢需求的直接提振作用有限。 出口成为需求的重要支撑。2025年1—12月，钢材出口累计1.19亿吨，同比增长7.5%，部分缓解国内供 应压力。但自2026年1月1日起，钢铁产品出口许可证管理政策实施，预计将使2026年出口量减少约1900 万吨，这部分资源将回流国内，给内需市场带来额外消化压力。 短期来看，随着春节临近，工地面临全面停工 ...

Group 1: Natural Gas and Precious Metals Market - Overseas natural gas prices surged, with U.S. natural gas futures rising over 28% due to colder weather predictions [2] - European gas prices increased significantly as temperature forecasts turned colder, widening the price gap between Europe and the U.S. [2] - The Polish central bank plans to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its reserves to 700 tons, positioning Poland among the top 10 countries in gold reserves [2] Group 2: U.S. Political and Economic Climate - Danish pension fund AkademikerPension plans to liquidate U.S. Treasury holdings due to concerns over credit risk from U.S. policies [5] - Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned that U.S. policies could lead to a "capital war," prompting investors to shift towards hard assets like gold [6] - U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.76% and the S&P 500 down 2.06%, marking the largest single-day drop since October [6] Group 3: A-Share Market Dynamics - A-shares have seen significant increases in early 2026, with potential incremental capital inflows estimated to reach several trillion yuan [9] - Incremental funds are categorized into active speculative funds and long-term funds, with insurance and public funds acting as market stabilizers [9] - By Q3 2025, insurance funds held approximately 5.59 trillion yuan in stocks and securities, showing substantial growth from previous years [9] Group 4: Market Structure and Future Outlook - The influx of funds into the market is supported by institutional measures aimed at promoting long-term investments [10][11] - External capital is expected to play a significant role, particularly in sectors with global competitiveness such as AI and renewable energy [12] - The market may enter a consolidation phase as many popular sectors are at high valuations, with future growth driven by earnings and valuation adjustments [13]

胡银滨认为，国内粮食市场各品种间的价格联动与替代效应越来越明显，突发事件或现象引发的价格涨 跌缺乏持续性。 "国内小麦、玉米市场出现这种现象并不奇怪，尽管2025年山东、河南、河北等产区出现了小麦单产下 调和玉米'降产降质'的情况，但东北和新疆小麦、玉米产量大幅增长，在很大程度上弥补了优质小麦、 玉米的供应缺口。"陕西省西安市粮油贸易商胡银滨告诉期货日报记者，近年来，我国留存了大量的进 口和国产小麦、玉米，这部分库存小麦和玉米当前正在进行竞价销售，因此粮油市场供应十分充足，小 麦、玉米价格能够保持平稳运行。不过，个别地区出现了晚播小麦"一根针"现象。 （文章来源：期货日报） "综合来看，'一根针'现象主要出现在河南南部，面积有限。"河北省邢台市小麦加工商鲍海洋走访了多 个省份后告诉记者，受秋季降雨较多等因素影响，河南、河北、山东部分地区新季小麦2025年秋季播种 时间推迟，部分田地比正常年份晚播30天以上，使小麦冬前分蘖不足，个别地区的小麦甚至没有分蘖， 不少种植户担忧小麦开春后的分蘖情况。 据悉，"一根针"是指播种时间晚导致冬前仅长出一片叶、未形成分蘖的弱苗。河南省滑县小麦贸易商齐 凯表示，近期大范围雨雪天 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by concerns over supply constraints, particularly in the Jiangxi production area, where there are reports of potential production halts and increased regulatory scrutiny [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate price has seen significant increases, with futures prices rising by approximately 8.33% to 9.00% across various contracts [1]. - Analysts indicate that the market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with current supply levels remaining high but limited potential for future increases [4]. - There is a notable shift in demand dynamics, with some downstream sectors, particularly in iron phosphate lithium, resuming production and increasing output after adjusting processing fees [4]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply Concerns - As of mid-January, lithium carbonate weekly inventory totaled 109,700 tons, reflecting a decrease of 263 tons week-on-week, with variations in inventory levels across different market segments [4]. - The current market is characterized by locked-up inventories, leading to limited available spot supplies, which is contributing to upward price pressure [4][5]. - Analysts express caution regarding the potential for price fluctuations as the market navigates between strong current realities and weaker future expectations [5]. Group 3: Regulatory and Risk Management - The introduction of new mining laws and stricter environmental regulations is expected to impact production norms and regulatory oversight in the lithium mining sector [3][4]. - In response to increasing uncertainties affecting lithium futures, the Guangxi Futures Exchange has implemented a series of risk control measures to ensure market stability [5].