Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a significant decline in bond futures prices across various maturities, with the 30-year bond futures dropping by 2.7% and the 10-year bond futures down by 0.4% since September [1] - The equity market's strength is exerting pressure on the bond market, leading to a noticeable "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds, as liquidity shifts from the bond market to equities [1] - Economic data from August shows weakness, with the official manufacturing PMI improving but still below the growth line, indicating economic pressure [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of responding to potential liquidity tightening risks, suggesting strategies for hedging in such scenarios [2] - Historical research indicates that the basis is significantly influenced by funding rates, with tightening conditions favoring long positions in bond futures [2] - The article recommends participating in interest rate flattening strategies and prioritizing the "short TS long T" arbitrage strategy, as the net basis showed a pattern of first expanding and then contracting in September [2]

Group 1: Steel Consumption Performance - Overall steel consumption has been poor, with rebar consumption down 4.5% year-on-year and wire rod down 7.8% [1] - Despite the decline in construction steel consumption, plate consumption has increased, supporting high furnace iron output [2] - The average daily transaction volume of building materials in September is only slightly up by 1% compared to previous years, indicating weaker demand during the peak season [3] Group 2: Production and Profitability - Steel mills are facing significant profit pressure due to falling steel prices and rising raw material costs, with rebar profits nearing a loss state [1][4] - High furnace iron output remains elevated at 237.2 million tons per day, despite poor steel consumption, due to strong plate demand [2] - Steel mills may need to reduce production to restore profitability, but this is contingent on various factors, including potential government policies [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is currently in a phase of unclear trends, with both upward and downward pressures on steel prices [7] - The potential for government policies to stimulate consumption or enforce production cuts could significantly impact the steel market [6][7] - The steel industry is undergoing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement aimed at improving product quality and managing competition [7]

记者注意到，近年来海外铜产业供应扰动明显增多，全球铜精矿供应一直偏紧。2025年二季度，受地震 影响，艾芬豪与紫金矿业在刚果（金）合作的Kakula地下矿大幅下调2025年增产目标；三季度智利 Codelco旗下的El Teniente矿山运营也遭遇地震，产量预计损失2万～3万吨，叠加此次印尼Grasberg矿区 停产，今年铜精矿供应可能下降逾5%。这也意味着，全球铜精矿供需平衡表出现变化。今年4月，国际 铜业研究组织（ICSG）认为全球铜精矿今年的供应增速能够达到2.3%，产量增长近50万吨。 肖静认为，近期ICSG将再次更新铜精矿产量预期，很可能下调到10万吨，2026年供应增量也将受此次 事故影响而相应下调。展望后市，巴拿马年产量33万吨的Cobre Panama铜矿的产能恢复节奏成为影响 2026年供需平衡的关键因素。同时，2026年年度加工费谈判将再次陷入被动局面。 "四季度铜市供需有望转向紧平衡。"中信建投期货铜研究员张维鑫表示，从供应端来看，巴拿马铜矿停 产导致原料短缺，而Grasberg铜矿停产意味着2026年供应面临较大压力。从需求端来看，虽然矿冶矛盾 加剧或逐步沿着产业链向下游传导，高铜价 ...

记者从知情人士处获悉，9月25日上午，中国炼焦行业协会市场委员会召开专题市场分析会，来自山 西、河北、内蒙古、河南、江苏、山东、陕西、宁夏、江西、云南、贵州等地的重点焦化企业代表出席 会议。与会人员结合当前宏观经济环境及行业动态，深入分析了焦炭市场的供需格局及价格走势。 与会企业达成以下决议：一是自9月26日零时起，对钢厂客户执行捣固湿熄焦价格上调50元／吨，捣固 干熄焦价格上调55元／吨，顶装湿熄焦价格上调80元／吨，顶装干熄焦价格上调85元／吨。二是建议焦 炭全行业限产30%以上，对未接受的客户，采取减量或停止发货的方式，共同维护行业利益。建议全体 焦化企业坚持"亏损不生产、亏损不销售、不赊销"原则，坚决维护行业合理利润水平和健康发展秩序。 记者注意到，这两天有不少企业上调焦煤和焦炭价格。 广发期货黑色首席分析师周敏波告诉记者，目前煤焦供需格局偏紧。近期焦煤成交情况好转，竞拍大多 溢价成交。焦煤库存在9月有所累积，不过库存结构出现优化，主要体现在上游煤矿开始去库，下游主 动补库，中间商也在焦煤价格短暂下跌后进行采购，库存向下游转移。进入9月，焦炭连续小幅累库， 目前库存总量约915万吨。在铁水产量相对稳定 ...

期货日报记者从知情人士处获悉，9月25日上午，中国炼焦行业协会市场委员会召开专题市场分析会，来自山西、河北、内蒙古、河南、江苏、山东、陕 西、宁夏、江西、云南、贵州等地的重点焦化企业代表出席会议。与会人员结合当前宏观经济环境及行业动态，深入分析了焦炭市场的供需格局及价格走 势。 与会企业达成以下决议：一是自9月26日零时起，对钢厂客户执行捣固湿熄焦价格上调50元/吨，捣固干熄焦价格上调55元/吨，顶装湿熄焦价格上调80元/ 吨，顶装干熄焦价格上调85元/吨。二是建议焦炭全行业限产30%以上，对未接受的客户，采取减量或停止发货的方式，共同维护行业利益。建议全体焦 化企业坚持"亏损不生产、亏损不销售、不赊销"原则，坚决维护行业合理利润水平和健康发展秩序。 记者注意到，这两天有不少企业上调焦煤和焦炭价格。 广发期货黑色首席分析师周敏波告诉记者，目前煤焦供需格局偏紧。近期焦煤成交情况好转，竞拍大多溢价成交。焦煤库存在9月有所累积，不过库存结 构出现优化，主要体现在上游煤矿开始去库，下游主动补库，中间商也在焦煤价格短暂下跌后进行采购，库存向下游转移。进入9月，焦炭连续小幅累 库，目前库存总量约915万吨。在铁水产量相对 ...

Cryptocurrency Market - Ethereum's price dropped significantly, falling below the psychological threshold of $4000, with a daily decline of 6.25% to $3898, marking a seven-week low [1] - Bitcoin also experienced a decline, dropping 3.25% and falling below the $110,000 key support level [1] - Solana saw a 7.8% decrease, marking its sixth consecutive day of decline [1] - Institutional fund inflows into Ethereum have cooled, contributing to the price drop, as indicated by cryptocurrency analyst Rachael Lucas [3] Ethereum ETF Withdrawals - Investors have withdrawn nearly $300 million from U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs since the beginning of the week, coinciding with a significant market downturn [4] - The total net inflow for Ethereum ETFs in September is only $11 million, a stark contrast to over $3.8 billion in inflows in August [4] Copper Market - Freeport McMoRan announced a production halt at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a landslide, triggering a force majeure on supply contracts [8] - The Grasberg mine is the second-largest copper mine globally, with an expected production of 816,500 tons in 2024, accounting for approximately 3.5% of global output [8] - Following the incident, Freeport has lowered its production guidance, indicating it will not meet its original sales target of 445 million pounds (approximately 200,000 tons) for Q4 [9] - The copper market is facing a tightening supply situation, exacerbated by the Grasberg mine's production halt and other recent supply disruptions [10] Future Outlook for Copper - Analysts predict that the copper market may shift towards a tight balance in Q4 due to supply constraints from the Grasberg mine and other factors [11] - The potential for increased demand from sectors such as data centers and renewable energy could lead to a significant rise in copper prices if supply remains constrained [11]

Group 1 - Domestic policy expectations are rising, with "anti-involution" and demand expansion policies expected to work in tandem, further stabilizing the economy's endogenous momentum [1][5] - Global macro liquidity is improving, and the micro funding environment is favorable, providing support for stock indices [1][4][5] - The stock index is expected to resume an upward trend after a period of consolidation, driven by both fundamental and liquidity boosts [1][5] Group 2 - In August, broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates declined, with broad fiscal revenue increasing by 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Tax revenue showed a positive trend, with corporate income tax increasing by 33.4% year-on-year, a significant improvement of 27 percentage points from the previous month [2][3] - Land-related tax revenues continued to show negative growth, with government fund revenue declining by 5.7% year-on-year in August [2][3] Group 3 - Public budget expenditure growth is accelerating, with social welfare-related expenditures maintaining growth, while infrastructure-related expenditures are declining [3] - The government is expected to continue policy support due to the current economic pressures, particularly in light of weak land-related revenues [3] - The significant increase in corporate income tax reflects the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, and there are signs of recovery in corporate profits as PPI declines narrow [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut is part of a "preventive" easing cycle, contributing to global macro liquidity improvement [4] - The Chinese central bank maintains a supportive monetary policy stance, with expectations for continued moderate easing in the future [4] - The market is experiencing active sentiment, supported by sustained high levels of financing and increased non-bank deposits [4]

秋意渐浓，梧桐叶落，又是一年国庆假期到来。城市渐渐安静下来，写字楼的灯一盏盏熄灭，人们收拾 行囊，奔赴山海。而期货交易者，这群在数字洪流中搏击的旅人，却在节日前夕，多了一份静默的守 候。 交易所的假期安排早已贴出：10月1日（星期三）至10月8日（星期三）休市，10月9日（星期四）起照 常开市。9月30日（星期二）晚上不进行夜盘交易。10月9日（星期四）所有合约集合竞价时间为上午 8:55至9:00。可以想见，9月30日下午，随着分时线的止步，屏幕归于平静。有人长舒一口气，摘下耳 机，望着K线图嘴角微扬；有人默默关闭交易软件，泡上一杯浓茶，任茶烟袅袅，思绪却仍停留在那根 均线上。 假期，对期货交易者而言，从不是简单的"休息"二字可以概括的。它更像是一次周期性的撤离与回归， 一次在喧嚣与寂静之间的转换。节前的最后几个交易日，市场波动往往加大。交易所的保证金可能上 调，风险提示函也可能发布，仿佛在提醒大家：操作要更谨慎。 于是，有些期货交易者选择在假期前平仓。这不仅是为了规避长假期间国际市场的不确定性，更是对内 心秩序的一次整理。当账户归于平静，心也随之沉淀。有人终于能陪孩子去一趟动物园，看长颈鹿慢吞 吞地咀嚼树 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a weak trend due to the "seesaw" effect between stocks and bonds, as well as the implementation of new public fund sales regulations, making it difficult for the bond market to stabilize in the short term [1][6] - As of September 24, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds are at 1.8125% and 2.111%, respectively, showing an increase of 1.75 and 1.9 basis points compared to the previous Friday's close [1] - The futures market for government bonds has seen declines, with the main contracts for 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year bonds dropping by 0.71%, 0.1%, 0.06%, and 0.04% respectively [1] Group 2 - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the increase of accommodative monetary policy, as the recent press conference did not signal any immediate policy adjustments [2][3] - The September LPR (Loan Prime Rate) quotes remained unchanged for both 1-year and 5-year rates, aligning with market expectations, but reflecting a lack of signals for further monetary easing [3] - Economic data from July to August showed a decline, leading to expectations for increased accommodative monetary policy, while the potential for the RMB to appreciate and stable financial markets reduce the necessity for such measures [3] Group 3 - The deadline for public fund sales regulations is approaching, which may lead to increased redemption pressure on short-term bonds as investors shift towards bond ETFs due to higher short-term redemption fees [4] - The central bank's recent adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations indicate a shift towards fixed quantity and multi-price bidding, with a recent operation of 300 billion yuan [5] - The likelihood of the central bank restarting bond purchases in September is low, depending on signals for incremental policy and fiscal stimulus [5] Group 4 - The current global liquidity environment remains loose, with a weak dollar and high market risk appetite, contributing to a challenging environment for the bond market [6] - In the medium term, if inflation and corporate earnings data improve significantly, the bond market may enter a larger-scale "bear market" [6] - The recommendation for trading strategies is to maintain a cautious approach with a focus on trend observation and consider arbitrage opportunities in steep yield curves [6]

在9月25日举行的商务部例行新闻发布会上，商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示，这一立场宣示体现了中国 作为发展中大国和世界贸易大国的担当，具有鲜明的发展属性。中国仍然是世界上最大的发展中国家， 中国发展中国家的地位和身份没有改变。中国始终是全球南方的一员，永远和发展中国家站在一起。中 国将一如既往地践行真正的多边主义，支持以规则为基础的多边贸易体制，并与其他发展中成员站在一 起，推动将发展作为世贸组织议程的中心，更好弥合南北发展鸿沟，推动完善全球经济治理，建设开放 型世界经济。(鲍仁) 本报讯当地时间9月23日，中方在第80届联合国大会相关活动上宣布，中国作为负责任的发展中大国， 在世贸组织当前和未来谈判中，将不寻求新的特殊和差别待遇。 ...