来源：深网腾讯新闻 图源：视觉中国 文丨雅萱 编辑丨叶锦言 出品丨深网·腾讯新闻小满工作室 发布一个月后，小米集团创始人雷军于6月26日正式公布小米首款SUV小米YU7的价格，其中，标准版起售价25.35万元，Pro版售价27.99万元；Max版售 价32.99万元。 在这个价格段内，聚集着Model Y、智界R7、乐道L60、理想L6，极氪7X、阿维塔07、全新智己LS6和即将上市的理想纯电SUV理想i6等多款车型。 据Focus2move数据显示，2024年全年，特斯拉 Model Y全球销量109万辆，同比下滑1.2%。 理想创始人李想日前在社交平台"预祝小米YU7大卖"时，特意为理想纯电SUV做了预热，"雷总提到6座SUV，即将在7月下旬上市的理想i8就是一款三排 六座纯电SUV。" 就在小米YU7正式公布价格的当天，鸿蒙智行官方宣布，智界品牌旗下全系车型启动购车补贴。6月27日起至7月31日，下定用户可立减2万元现金，并享 最高价值6万元的购车权益。官方补贴后，智界R7增程版售价降至22.98万-29.98万元；智界R7纯电版售价降至23.98万-31.98万元。 显而易见，定价25.35万起的小米 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Performance - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97 for the first time since March 2022, closing down 0.37% at 97.35 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2390%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.7280% [2] - U.S. GDP for the first quarter was unexpectedly revised down, while initial jobless claims and personal consumption data were positive for gold prices, which closed at $3327.68 per ounce, down 0.17% [2] - WTI crude oil rose 0.43% to $65.16 per barrel, and Brent crude increased 0.47% to $67.91 per barrel due to rising demand [3] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Xiaomi launched its SUV, YU7, starting at 253,500 yuan, with over 289,000 units reserved within an hour [8] - Honor has taken a significant step towards an A-share IPO by obtaining listing counseling registration from the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau [8] - The new domestically developed general-purpose processor, Loongson 3C6000, was officially released [8] Group 3: Stock Market Movements - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.61% to 24,325.4 points, with a trading volume of 261.729 billion HKD [4] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.48%, with total trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan [4] - The U.S. stock market saw the Dow Jones rise 0.9%, the Nasdaq increase by 0.97%, and the S&P 500 up by 0.8%, nearing its historical high of 6147.43 [3]

在本周早些时候停火协议生效后，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊首次发表评论，声称在与以色列的战争中取得 了胜利，并表示美国的干预毫无成果。 他在一段预先录制的视频讲话中表示："伊朗伊斯兰共和国最终取得了胜利，并给了美国一记响亮的耳 光"，他还补充说，美国"从这场战争中未取得任何成就"。 这些评论发表之际，华盛顿方面对美国空袭效果的评估出现了矛盾。美国总统特朗普声称关键的核设施 已"被夷为平地"，这一说法与五角大楼的情报评估相悖。 自6月13日以色列对伊朗各地的核设施和军事目标发动突袭以来，哈梅内伊一直没有公开露面。在紧张 混乱的12天里，数名伊朗军方领导人和科学家被杀，美国也加入了以色列的行列，对伊朗的核设施进行 了打击，而德黑兰则空袭了位于卡塔尔的一个美军基地。 最终，特朗普于周二宣布了停火协议，此后该协议基本得以维持，尽管双方早期的违规行为曾一度威胁 到协议的执行。 "如果发生任何侵略行为，敌人必将付出沉重的代价，"哈梅内伊警告称，伊朗未来可能会再次袭击该地 区的美军基地。 核僵局 在德黑兰，立法者们一直致力于限制伊朗与联合国核监督机构——国际原子能机构（IAEA）的合作。 伊朗议会和该国强大的宪法监护委员会均已批准 ...

美国商务部周四报告称，由于美国总统特朗普的贸易战扰乱商业活动，美国经济在今年1月至3月期间以 0.5%的年化季率萎缩，这是一次出乎意料的下修。 由于美国企业赶在特朗普可能对其课征关税前引进外国商品，导致进口激增，美国第一季度的经济增长 因此受到拖累。灭国商务部此前估算第一季度经济萎缩0.2%。经济学家们曾预测，商务部的第三次也 是最后一次估算值将不会有任何改变。 美国GDP在第一季度的下滑逆转了2024年最后三个月2.4%的增长，并标志着三年来的首次萎缩。其 中，进口激增37.9%，为2020年以来最快增速，并将GDP拉低了近4.7个百分点。 此外，联邦政府支出以4.6%的年率下降，是自2022年以来的最大降幅。 贸易逆差会减少GDP，但这只是个数学问题。GDP理应只计算国内生产的部分，而不包括从国外进口的 商品。因此，进口——在GDP报告中表现为消费者支出或商业投资——必须被减去，以防止它们人为地 夸大国内生产。 美国第一季度的进口涌入情况，在4月至6月的第二季度可能不会重演，因此可能不会对第二季度的GDP 造成压力。事实上，根据数据公司FactSet对预测者的调查，经济学家预计美国第二季度经济增长将反弹 ...

由于投资者美联储独立性受损的新信号感到不安，美元指数被迅速推至三年多来最低水平。 Monex Europe宏观研究主管尼克•里斯（Nick Rees）表示，市场面临的重大短期风险是，对美联储的批评仍在继续。 美元指数跌至2022年以来的最低水平 加拿大皇家银行蓝湾资产管理高级投资组合经理卡斯帕·亨泽（Kaspar Hense）表示："在机构公信力受损的环境下，我们做空美元。" 他补充称，若哈塞特或贝森特这类人物上任并"无视基本面风险而降息，市场仍会剧烈波动"。据报道，下一任美联储主席的主要候 选人包括前美联储理事沃什、国家经济委员会主任哈塞特、现任美联储理事沃勒和财政部长贝森特。 法国兴业银行首席外汇策略师基特·朱克斯（Kit Juckes）称："市场正在定价特朗普任命至少表面上更支持其政策的人选。"本周早些 时候，特朗普新任命的美联储高级银行监管者鲍曼表示"降息时机渐近"。随着降息预期升温，美元进一步走弱。交易员目前预计7月 降息概率近25%，高于上周的12.5%。 特朗普在贸易和安全问题上与长期盟友的对抗，以及对美联储的抨击，令德国重新审视其存放在纽约联储的央行黄金储备。路透社 上月报道，欧洲央行监管机构 ...

Group 1 - Trump calls for Israel to "pardon" Prime Minister Netanyahu or dismiss the corruption case against him, labeling it as "political persecution" [1] - Netanyahu has been on trial since 2020 for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, denying all charges [1] - The trial is occurring against the backdrop of ongoing conflict following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which has delayed legal proceedings [2] Group 2 - Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid criticizes Trump's interference in Israel's legal processes, suggesting it may be part of a broader strategy [2] - Lapid speculates that Trump's statement could be a reward for Netanyahu, as he pressures him on the Gaza issue to reach a hostage agreement [2] - Netanyahu's trial has faced multiple delays due to the ongoing war, raising concerns about his intentions to prolong conflict to postpone elections and trial conclusions [2]

Group 1 - Silver's volatility is typically double that of gold, but during high-intensity bull markets, silver can rise up to four times that of gold, as seen from late July to early August 2020, where gold increased by 15% and silver surged by 58% [1] - Silver is approaching record quarterly closing prices, indicating the potential start of a price discovery phase, with a favorable macro environment for hard assets [3] - The long-term trend shows that gold remains extremely undervalued compared to the S&P 500, continuing to serve as a high-value diversification tool for investment portfolios [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market appears calm, but there is significant underlying volatility, with 72% of S&P 500 constituents declining, while major companies like Nvidia, Google, and Apple masked much of the weakness, contributing over 40% of the bullish momentum [4] - The outlook for the U.S. dollar remains bearish, not due to debates about its reserve currency status, but because it is significantly overvalued from a purchasing power parity perspective, with a potential decline of up to 30% in the coming years [6]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal is attributed to multiple factors, including favorable weather conditions in the U.S. affecting soybean growth, increased domestic supply pressures, and slow inventory depletion of rapeseed meal [8]. Group 1: External Market Influences - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures have fallen for four consecutive days, with the benchmark contract down approximately 1.85% due to improved weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest, which are beneficial for crop growth [3]. - Analysts indicate that the weather forecast has alleviated previous concerns about high temperatures and dry conditions affecting soybean growth, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [3]. - The expectation of abundant soybean supply from South America further supports the global soybean supply outlook, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 2: Domestic Supply Dynamics - Domestic soybean imports are increasing, with port inventories reported at 5.887 million tons as of June 23, 2025, down from 5.906 million tons on June 16, indicating a slight decrease but still high supply expectations [4]. - The supply pressure on soybean meal is primarily due to the high operating rates of oil mills and increased crushing volumes, which are expected to continue affecting the market negatively [4][5]. - Despite good demand from the livestock sector, the oversupply situation in the short term is unlikely to change, leading to continued pressure on soybean meal prices [5]. Group 3: Rapeseed Meal Market Conditions - The depletion of rapeseed meal inventories is slow, with downstream users perceiving rapeseed meal as lacking cost-effectiveness [6]. - The approval of imports from Kazakhstan is expected to alleviate some supply concerns for rapeseed meal, but it may also exert downward pressure on prices [6]. - The ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs between China and Canada are progressing slowly, which may impact the rapeseed meal market [6]. Group 4: Oil and Fat Market Influences - CBOT soybean oil futures have also declined, influenced by improved weather conditions and uncertainties surrounding biofuel policies [7]. - Changes in Brazil's energy policy, which will increase the blending ratios of ethanol and biodiesel, are expected to boost domestic consumption of corn and soybean oil [7]. - The current market dynamics suggest that the oilseed market is experiencing a shift, which may have a knock-on effect on meal prices [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The outlook for soybean and rapeseed meal prices remains bearish due to a combination of international market conditions, domestic supply pressures, and slow inventory depletion [8]. - Market participants are advised to monitor key factors such as U.S. Department of Agriculture reports, weather conditions in soybean-producing regions, and developments in China-Canada trade relations [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The main nickel futures contract in Shanghai has risen for three consecutive trading days, reaching a new high since June 12, closing at 120,830 yuan/ton, up 2.33% [1] - The decrease in geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties has positively impacted the nickel market, with U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index declining [1] - Domestic nickel prices have seen a decline, with the current spot price at 119,775 yuan/ton, down 6.02% from the end of last year [1] Group 2: Import and Supply Dynamics - In May 2025, nickel ore imports increased by 34.77% month-on-month to 3.9272 million tons, but decreased by 14.79% year-on-year [2] - The Philippines remains the primary source of nickel ore, with 3.6058 million tons imported, accounting for 91.82% of the total imports for the month [2] - The market is concerned about potential oversupply due to the removal of export restrictions on nickel ore in the Philippines, while Indonesian nickel ore remains tight in the short term [2] Group 3: Demand and Production Insights - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to decrease by 2.91% month-on-month in June, with a total output of 3.3623 million tons [3] - The demand for nickel is under pressure due to weak terminal demand and slow recovery in manufacturing orders, leading to a focus on just-in-time inventory replenishment [3] - The overall supply-demand balance remains oversupplied, with nickel prices expected to face downward pressure [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the nickel market may experience a combination of supply contraction and demand substitution to address the oversupply issue [4] - The short-term outlook for nickel prices is mixed, with potential for a rebound above 120,000 yuan/ton, but also risks of volatility and downward pressure in the second half of the year [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor the impact of Indonesian policies and the development of new energy and semiconductor demands for long-term growth opportunities [4]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices may peak at $10,050 per ton by the end of 2025, with an average price adjustment to $9,890 for the second half of 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 40% chance of recession in the U.S. due to tariff-induced stagflation, lowering the GDP growth estimate for 2025 to 1.3% [2] - Morgan Stanley reports a decline in global demand for long-term assets, predicting 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to be 3.50% and 4.35% respectively by year-end [3] Group 2 - Barclays indicates mild selling pressure on the dollar by the end of June, while the euro shows weak signals for a significant rebound [4] - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace, with potential announcements in September [5] - Bank of America states that since the announcement of tariffs, interest rate differentials are no longer the main driver of the dollar's movement, reflecting structural risks in the U.S. economy [6] Group 3 - French Foreign Trade Bank's survey shows that 41% of respondents view currency depreciation as the main risk of holding cash, with 38% preferring better returns elsewhere [7] - Westpac anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut rates in July, but emphasizes that this is not a certainty [8] - China International Capital Corporation notes potential recovery in the photovoltaic industry, with a beta opportunity of 30%-50% if expectations improve [5][6]