Group 1 - Silver's volatility is typically double that of gold, but during high-intensity bull markets, silver can rise up to four times that of gold, as seen from late July to early August 2020, where gold increased by 15% and silver surged by 58% [1] - Silver is approaching record quarterly closing prices, indicating the potential start of a price discovery phase, with a favorable macro environment for hard assets [3] - The long-term trend shows that gold remains extremely undervalued compared to the S&P 500, continuing to serve as a high-value diversification tool for investment portfolios [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market appears calm, but there is significant underlying volatility, with 72% of S&P 500 constituents declining, while major companies like Nvidia, Google, and Apple masked much of the weakness, contributing over 40% of the bullish momentum [4] - The outlook for the U.S. dollar remains bearish, not due to debates about its reserve currency status, but because it is significantly overvalued from a purchasing power parity perspective, with a potential decline of up to 30% in the coming years [6]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal is attributed to multiple factors, including favorable weather conditions in the U.S. affecting soybean growth, increased domestic supply pressures, and slow inventory depletion of rapeseed meal [8]. Group 1: External Market Influences - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures have fallen for four consecutive days, with the benchmark contract down approximately 1.85% due to improved weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest, which are beneficial for crop growth [3]. - Analysts indicate that the weather forecast has alleviated previous concerns about high temperatures and dry conditions affecting soybean growth, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [3]. - The expectation of abundant soybean supply from South America further supports the global soybean supply outlook, contributing to the downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 2: Domestic Supply Dynamics - Domestic soybean imports are increasing, with port inventories reported at 5.887 million tons as of June 23, 2025, down from 5.906 million tons on June 16, indicating a slight decrease but still high supply expectations [4]. - The supply pressure on soybean meal is primarily due to the high operating rates of oil mills and increased crushing volumes, which are expected to continue affecting the market negatively [4][5]. - Despite good demand from the livestock sector, the oversupply situation in the short term is unlikely to change, leading to continued pressure on soybean meal prices [5]. Group 3: Rapeseed Meal Market Conditions - The depletion of rapeseed meal inventories is slow, with downstream users perceiving rapeseed meal as lacking cost-effectiveness [6]. - The approval of imports from Kazakhstan is expected to alleviate some supply concerns for rapeseed meal, but it may also exert downward pressure on prices [6]. - The ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs between China and Canada are progressing slowly, which may impact the rapeseed meal market [6]. Group 4: Oil and Fat Market Influences - CBOT soybean oil futures have also declined, influenced by improved weather conditions and uncertainties surrounding biofuel policies [7]. - Changes in Brazil's energy policy, which will increase the blending ratios of ethanol and biodiesel, are expected to boost domestic consumption of corn and soybean oil [7]. - The current market dynamics suggest that the oilseed market is experiencing a shift, which may have a knock-on effect on meal prices [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Recommendations - The outlook for soybean and rapeseed meal prices remains bearish due to a combination of international market conditions, domestic supply pressures, and slow inventory depletion [8]. - Market participants are advised to monitor key factors such as U.S. Department of Agriculture reports, weather conditions in soybean-producing regions, and developments in China-Canada trade relations [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The main nickel futures contract in Shanghai has risen for three consecutive trading days, reaching a new high since June 12, closing at 120,830 yuan/ton, up 2.33% [1] - The decrease in geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties has positively impacted the nickel market, with U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index declining [1] - Domestic nickel prices have seen a decline, with the current spot price at 119,775 yuan/ton, down 6.02% from the end of last year [1] Group 2: Import and Supply Dynamics - In May 2025, nickel ore imports increased by 34.77% month-on-month to 3.9272 million tons, but decreased by 14.79% year-on-year [2] - The Philippines remains the primary source of nickel ore, with 3.6058 million tons imported, accounting for 91.82% of the total imports for the month [2] - The market is concerned about potential oversupply due to the removal of export restrictions on nickel ore in the Philippines, while Indonesian nickel ore remains tight in the short term [2] Group 3: Demand and Production Insights - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to decrease by 2.91% month-on-month in June, with a total output of 3.3623 million tons [3] - The demand for nickel is under pressure due to weak terminal demand and slow recovery in manufacturing orders, leading to a focus on just-in-time inventory replenishment [3] - The overall supply-demand balance remains oversupplied, with nickel prices expected to face downward pressure [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the nickel market may experience a combination of supply contraction and demand substitution to address the oversupply issue [4] - The short-term outlook for nickel prices is mixed, with potential for a rebound above 120,000 yuan/ton, but also risks of volatility and downward pressure in the second half of the year [3][4] - The market is advised to monitor the impact of Indonesian policies and the development of new energy and semiconductor demands for long-term growth opportunities [4]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices may peak at $10,050 per ton by the end of 2025, with an average price adjustment to $9,890 for the second half of 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 40% chance of recession in the U.S. due to tariff-induced stagflation, lowering the GDP growth estimate for 2025 to 1.3% [2] - Morgan Stanley reports a decline in global demand for long-term assets, predicting 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to be 3.50% and 4.35% respectively by year-end [3] Group 2 - Barclays indicates mild selling pressure on the dollar by the end of June, while the euro shows weak signals for a significant rebound [4] - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace, with potential announcements in September [5] - Bank of America states that since the announcement of tariffs, interest rate differentials are no longer the main driver of the dollar's movement, reflecting structural risks in the U.S. economy [6] Group 3 - French Foreign Trade Bank's survey shows that 41% of respondents view currency depreciation as the main risk of holding cash, with 38% preferring better returns elsewhere [7] - Westpac anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut rates in July, but emphasizes that this is not a certainty [8] - China International Capital Corporation notes potential recovery in the photovoltaic industry, with a beta opportunity of 30%-50% if expectations improve [5][6]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank suggests that the Trump administration can alleviate its "unsustainable" fiscal situation by encouraging more domestic investors to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds, which may lead to lower bond prices and a weaker dollar [1] - The proposed "Pennsylvania Plan" aims to reduce reliance on international buyers of U.S. bonds by incentivizing domestic investment, such as making it easier for banks to buy bonds or establishing tax exemptions [1] - The report indicates that while these measures may not significantly reduce the funding gap, they could diminish the influence of foreign debt holders on U.S. policy and mitigate the risk of large-scale sell-offs of U.S. Treasury bonds [1] Group 2 - Saravelos emphasizes that investors should disregard the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," advocating for the U.S. government to seek more funding from domestic investors due to a lack of willingness to improve fiscal conditions [2] - The report predicts a "historic" shift that will pressure the dollar and increase term premiums, while the Federal Reserve may be more motivated to maintain low interest rates to manage fiscal pressures [2] - A weaker dollar could help rebalance the U.S. external deficit, which may not be an economically unfavorable outcome [2] Group 3 - The extent to which foreign investors are avoiding U.S. assets remains unclear, although recent data from the U.S. Treasury indicates strong demand for 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions, with foreign purchases near average levels [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases in polysilicon and industrial silicon are driven by supply-side production cuts, market sentiment improvements, and a temporary rebound in demand, although long-term supply-demand imbalances remain unresolved [1][4][5] Supply Side - Industrial silicon futures rose by 2.66% to 7720 CNY/ton, while polysilicon futures increased by 3.46% to 31715 CNY/ton, influenced by production cut announcements [1] - Major polysilicon producers, including Tongwei and Daqo New Energy, have agreed to self-discipline production cuts, affecting over 1.2 million tons of capacity [3] - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to remain loose, with large manufacturers planning to resume operations due to lower electricity prices in the southwest region [1][3] Demand Side - The demand for industrial silicon is primarily driven by the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors, but overall demand is showing signs of slowing down [2][4] - The organic silicon market continues to see price declines, yet companies are maintaining production to capture market share, which may positively impact industrial silicon demand [2] - In the polysilicon sector, major companies are reducing production, leading to a decrease in overall demand for industrial silicon [2][3] Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of mid-June, visible polysilicon inventory stands at 270,000 tons, with total inventory potentially reaching 400,000 to 500,000 tons, indicating significant pressure [3] - The market is experiencing a temporary rebound in polysilicon prices due to a combination of supply cuts, demand spikes from the solar installation rush, and speculative trading in the futures market [5] - Despite recent price increases, the long-term outlook for industrial silicon remains cautious due to unresolved supply-demand issues and high inventory levels [4][5]

周四，英镑兑美元汇率飙升至近四年来的最高水平，尽管分析师们对进一步上涨的潜力仍然存在分歧。 根据LSEG的数据，今年到目前为止，该货币对已飙升近10%。然而，英镑兑欧元汇率今年迄今已下跌 2.9%。 疲软美元"带飞" RBC Brewin Dolphin的市场分析主管Janet Mui认为，英镑今年的上涨轨迹在很大程度上与美元的潜在疲 软有关，而非对英镑本身的信心。 她周三表示，"今年以来，英镑的相对强势更多地是一个弱美元的故事。" 美国总统特朗普不可预测的贸易政策在今年早些时候动摇了市场对美国资产的信心，这反过来又引发了 市场对去美元化的担忧。 景顺的全球资产配置研究主管Paul Jackson表示，英镑正从前英国首相特拉斯的所谓"迷你预算"后的"极 低点"恢复。 然而，他同意今年的大部分走势应归因于美元疲软，并指出了英镑兑欧元却在贬值的事实。 英镑还能继续涨吗？ Jackson的预测意味着英镑兑美元汇率将从当前水平上涨约2.9%。 RBC Brewin Dolphin的Mui表示，未来几个月英镑的前景并非特别引人注目，但她指出，从长远来看， 地缘政治的发展可能会催化其进一步上涨。她说，"短期内，由于英国经 ...

Core Insights - A significant influx of capital, potentially exceeding $100 billion, is expected to enter the stock market within the next month, as indicated by Nomura's volatility-control fund model, marking the highest prediction since the model's inception in 2004 [1][3] - The S&P 500 index is nearing its first historical closing high since February, reflecting a recovery in the market [1] - The model's predictions are primarily driven by an anticipated decline in realized volatility over the next three months, following a period of heightened volatility during the market downturn in late March to early April [1][2] Volatility-Control Funds - Volatility-control funds are a subset of systematic funds that utilize algorithms and preset parameters for decision-making, often employing leverage and frequently adjusting market exposure [1] - These funds typically measure realized volatility to determine their stock market allocation, and their exposure may not directly involve purchasing stocks, as many trade options and futures in the derivatives market [1] Historical Performance - Historical data suggests that when the model indicates potential large-scale buying by systematic traders, the stock market tends to experience strong returns in the following 1-2 months, with significant excess returns [3][4] - The median returns over various time frames show a consistent pattern of positive performance, with a median return of 12.1% over one year [4] Market Dynamics - The recent calm in the market has reinforced the perception of a "safe return to the market," which may encourage systematic fund managers to increase their exposure [1] - However, there are warnings regarding the stability of such funds, as their influx could lead to a new wave of selling if volatility rises again, reminiscent of the sharp sell-off in August triggered by yen carry trade unwinding [5]

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology reported strong financial results for the third fiscal quarter, driven by increased demand for AI chips and record sales of high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips [2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a record revenue of $9.3 billion for the third fiscal quarter, a 37% year-over-year increase, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $8.9 billion [2] - Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $1.91, exceeding expectations of $1.60 [2] - The adjusted gross margin for the third quarter was 39%, with an expectation of 42% for the upcoming quarter, with a fluctuation of 1 percentage point [2] Market Position and Outlook - Micron's CEO indicated expectations for record revenue, solid earnings, and ample free cash flow in fiscal year 2025, while making disciplined investments to maintain technological leadership and manufacturing excellence [2] - The revenue growth was primarily attributed to "historically high" sales of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips, with HBM chip revenue increasing nearly 50% quarter-over-quarter [2] - The data center business saw revenue growth of over 100% year-over-year, while the consumer-facing end market experienced strong sequential growth [2] Analyst Insights - Analysts are focused on Micron's upward revision of short-term gross margins, with expectations for the previous quarter's gross margin at 36.7% and 39% for the August quarter [3] - Micron's stock has performed well within the S&P 500 index, with investors showing strong optimism towards the company and other memory chip and hard drive stocks [3] - For the fourth fiscal quarter, Micron projects revenue of $10.7 billion, with a fluctuation of $300 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.50, with a fluctuation of $0.15 [3]

据Baird Equity Research称，特斯拉即将公布的第二季度交付数据可能低于市场预期，不过上周末备受 期待的无人出租车（Robotaxi）发布会带来的持续热度可能会掩盖这一负面消息。 上周日，特斯拉在德州奥斯汀发布无人出租车，引发市场强烈反应。周一，特斯拉（TSLA）股价飙涨 8.2%，市值一日增加854亿美元。 但随后回调。周二股价回落，周三早盘继续下跌5.2%。 Baird分析师本·卡洛（Ben Kallo）表示，他对特斯拉第二季度交付量保持"谨慎"态度，预计特斯拉将在7 月2日左右公布相关数据。卡洛预计交付量为37.7万辆，低于FactSet汇总的分析师平均预期的39万辆， 也低于2024年第二季度的44.4万辆交付量。 他写道："来自第三方的数据显示，例如中国的上险量和5月的批发数据，更加坚定了我们交付量将低于 市场预期的判断。"他还指出："请注意，第一季度末，特斯拉四大工厂的新款Model Y正处于生产爬坡 阶段，我们认为这一进程延续到了第二季度初，可能对交付造成了影响。" 尽管交付存在不确定性，卡洛仍强调市场对无人出租车发布的持续关注。 "虽然交付仍是基本面中的关键一环，但我们认为，无 ...