Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a bullish trend due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with supply and demand pressures remaining manageable [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent disturbances in overseas supply have slightly increased compared to previous periods, but some situations have calmed down [1] - Codelco, the Chilean state copper company, has received authorization to resume partial operations at the El Teniente copper mine [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees have recently rebounded from low levels, but the extent of the rebound is limited, indicating ongoing concerns about supply tightness [1] Inventory and Market Activity - As of August 11, domestic electrolytic copper inventory stands at 132,200 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from August 7 [1] - The decline in inventory is primarily attributed to reduced arrivals in the Shanghai market and increased outflows from warehouses due to downstream enterprises purchasing at lower prices [1] Price Outlook - New Lake Futures indicates that the recent U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, significantly restoring market expectations for interest rate cuts, which has positively impacted copper prices [1] - The copper supply-demand situation remains relatively healthy, with ongoing tightness in copper mine supply and frequent disturbances at mining sites [1] - Both overseas and domestic smelters are expected to initiate production cuts, while copper demand remains resilient due to support from the power grid and new energy sectors [1] - It is suggested to consider establishing long positions on copper at lower price levels [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose for the third consecutive trading day, driven by hopes of interest rate cuts in the US and positive economic data from China [1][3] - As of August 8, LME three-month copper increased by $77.5, or 0.8%, closing at $9,762.0 per ton, marking a cumulative increase of 1.4% for the week [1][2] - The US dollar weakened following President Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, which bolstered expectations for rate cuts and made dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for foreign buyers [3] Group 2 - China's trade data showed a total import and export value of 3.91 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, the highest growth rate this year [3] - For the first seven months of the year, China's total trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - COMEX September copper contracts rose by 1.99% to $4.4860 per pound, or $9,890 per ton, resulting in a premium of approximately $128 per ton over LME copper [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by 0.40% to $9,723.5 per ton due to a weaker dollar and improved demand expectations [1] - SHFE September copper contract rose by 0.14% to ¥78,490 per ton, with July copper ore imports at 2.56 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [2] - China's copper and copper products imports decreased by 2.6% year-on-year to 311,300 tons in the first seven months of the year [2] Group 2 - Codelco has applied to reopen part of its flagship mine following a recent fatal accident that disrupted production [3] - Short-term supply disruptions may lead to a rise in spot prices and downward pressure on processing fees according to analysts [3] - Other LME metals showed mixed performance, with aluminum up 0.31% to $2,618 per ton and nickel down 0.05% to $15,110 per ton [3]

Core Points - Century Aluminum plans to restart idle production at the Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina, investing approximately $50 million and creating over 100 new jobs, which will increase U.S. aluminum production by about 10% [1] - The restart is attributed to President Trump's commitment to relocating critical metal manufacturing back to the U.S. [1] - The Mt. Holly facility, currently operating at 75% capacity, is expected to reach full production by June 30, 2026 [1] Company Overview - Century Aluminum is a vertically integrated producer of bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum products, with production facilities in the U.S., Iceland, the Netherlands, and Jamaica [1] - The company focuses on increasing domestic aluminum production in response to market demands and government policies [1] Industry Context - The decision to restart production aligns with broader trends in the U.S. aluminum industry, emphasizing the importance of domestic manufacturing capabilities [1] - The investment and job creation are expected to have positive implications for the local economy and the overall aluminum supply chain in the U.S. [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices experienced a slight increase, closing at $9,684.5 per ton, up by $8.5 or 0.09% due to optimistic economic data [1] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up by $1.0 (0.04%), zinc up by $24.5 (0.88%), and lead up by $15.0 (0.75%) [2] - In contrast, three-month nickel prices fell by $17.0 (0.11%) [2] Group 2 - China's foreign trade maintained a positive trend, with July's total trade value reaching 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, marking the highest growth rate for the year [3] - For the first seven months, China's total trade value was 25.7 trillion yuan, up by 3.5% year-on-year, with an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - Copper ore and concentrate imports in July were 2.56 million tons, with a cumulative import of 17.314 million tons for the first seven months, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase [3] Group 3 - Following the announcement of a 50% tariff on certain copper products by the U.S. government, COMEX copper prices fell, contributing to a 1.4% decline in LME copper prices the previous week [4][5] - Analysts predict that LME copper prices may drop to $8,800 by the end of the third quarter due to a global market surplus, with a projected surplus of 27,200 tons in the refined copper market by May 2025 [5]

海关总署数据显示，中国2025年7月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量为48万吨，连续两个月增加，且较去年同期 增加9.6%。1-7月累计进口量为311.3万吨，同比减少2.6%。消费淡季背景下，未锻轧铜及铜材进口量却 出现增加。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a slight upward trend, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and stable supply-demand dynamics, despite some underlying pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, particularly labor statistics, have shown weakness, leading to a significant increase in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - The US dollar index is operating weakly, contributing to a favorable environment for copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low, indicating stable supply conditions [1] - Chilean copper miner Codelco has requested permission to partially reopen its flagship El Teniente copper mine, which may impact future production levels [1] Group 3: Market Inventory and Consumption - As of August 7, domestic electrolytic copper inventory stood at 133,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from August 4 [1] - The Shanghai and Guangdong markets continue to see inventory accumulation, while Jiangsu market inventory has decreased [1] - Recent increases in imported copper arrivals in Shanghai have been noted, although downstream consumption remains relatively weak [1] Group 4: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicates that recent disturbances in copper mining and marginally rising rate cut expectations are supporting copper price performance [1] - However, there are concerns about potential downward pressure on prices due to weakening overseas data and slowing domestic demand [1] - Future observations will focus on consumer resilience, as continued weakness below seasonal expectations may limit price support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global tin prices are expected to remain strong due to reduced LME inventories, bullish investor sentiment, and tight supply in the concentrate market [2][3][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the recovery of supply from Myanmar, liquidity remains weak [2]. - The semiconductor industry's stable demand is anticipated to continue supporting tin prices amid ongoing supply issues [3]. - Sucden Financial forecasts tin prices to range between $32,000 and $35,000 per ton in Q3 [4]. - LME three-month tin prices reported at $33,256 per ton, down 9.5% from the three-month high of $35,100 per ton on July 23 [5]. - The average tin price in July was above $35,500 per ton [6]. Supply Chain Developments - Reports indicate that mining licenses have finally been issued in Myanmar's Wa State, leading to a decline in tin prices [7]. - The issuance of licenses follows a period of supply disruptions in major tin-exporting countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia, with expectations of stable exports from these regions [8]. - Myanmar is the third-largest tin producer globally, with estimated reserves of 700,000 tons, accounting for 15% of the world's total reserves [8]. Inventory and Market Conditions - The U.S. refined tin imports have nearly doubled compared to the same period last year [10]. - Despite early signs of supply normalization, tin inventories remain unusually tight, with LME tin stocks significantly below long-term averages [10]. - Low visible inventories combined with increasing speculative interest may keep upward price risks high for the remainder of Q3 [11]. Future Price Projections - BMI has raised its average tin price forecast for 2025 from $32,000 to $33,000 per ton [3]. - Indonesia's tin exports have shown recovery, with refined tin exports in March reaching 580 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.8% [12]. - However, Indonesia's exports for January to May 2025 were 21,600 tons, a 110% increase year-on-year but a 10% decrease compared to the same period in 2023 [13]. - The easing of supply pressures and potential tariff headwinds are becoming key drivers for the tin market in the second half of the year [14]. Strategic Considerations - Sucden Financial notes that if physical supply tightens again or strategic demand grows faster than expected, significant price increases could occur [15]. - The global economic activity shows resilience supported by demand from the AI and electronics sectors, while low global tin inventories contribute to price volatility [16].

荷兰国际集团（ING）大宗商品策略师Ewa Manthey表示："随着美国降息押注的加剧，市场正在淡化特 朗普总统最新的关税威胁和弱于预期的美国经济数据的影响。" 在一位美联储官员表示美国可能需要在短期内降息以应对美国经济放缓之后，美元指数走软。 8月6日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜上涨，受美国降息希望和主要生产国智利矿山停产后 的供应担忧支撑。 伦敦时间8月6日17:00(北京时间8月7日00:00)，LME三个月期铜上涨37.5美元，或0.39%，收报每吨 9,676.0美元。 | | 8月6日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张肤幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9.676.00 ↑ | +37.50 ↑ +0.39% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.609.00 1 | +46.50 ↑ +1.81% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,788.50 1 | +30.50 ↑ +1.11% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,994.50 ↑ | +21.00 ↑ +1.06% | | 三个月期镇 | 15.135.00 ↑ | +1 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by 0.48% to $9,685 per ton due to supply concerns following an accident at Codelco's mine in Chile, despite rising copper inventories limiting price gains [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) September copper contract fell by 0.25% to 78,280 yuan per ton, with Codelco required to submit four reports regarding the El Teniente mine collapse before resuming underground operations [2] - El Teniente mine produced 356,000 tons of copper last year, and traders are now re-exporting a portion of record shipments to the U.S. to capitalize on higher prices, overshadowing supply concerns from Chile [3] Group 2 - LME registered copper inventories increased by 2,275 tons (1.48%) to 156,125 tons, rising over 70% since the end of June [3] - Weak U.S. employment data has led to speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, resulting in a weaker dollar, making dollar-denominated metals like copper cheaper for holders of other currencies [3] - Other LME metals also saw price increases, with aluminum up 0.6% to $2,578 per ton, nickel up 0.64% to $15,120 per ton, lead up 1.27% to $1,998.5 per ton, tin up 0.69% to $33,485 per ton, and zinc up 0.62% to $2,775 per ton [3]