Core Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global refined lead consumption of 1.1157 million tons in October 2025, an increase from 1.0692 million tons in September 2025 [1] - The global refined lead market experienced a supply shortage of 14,400 tons in October 2025, compared to a shortage of 14,100 tons in September 2025 [1] - For the period from January to October 2025, global refined lead consumption reached 10.933 million tons, up from 10.773 million tons in the same period of 2024 [1] Consumption and Production Data - Global refined lead production in October 2025 was 1.1013 million tons, an increase from 1.0551 million tons in September 2025 [1] - The total global refined lead production from January to October 2025 was 10.953 million tons, compared to 10.773 million tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - Global mine production of lead in October 2025 was 403,000 tons, up from 392,300 tons in September 2025 [1] Supply and Demand Balance - The global lead market showed a supply surplus of 20,000 tons from January to October 2025, contrasting with a balanced supply-demand situation in the same period of 2024 [1] - The supply-demand balance for October 2025 indicated a continued tightening in the market, with a notable shift from surplus to shortage [1]

12月17日（周三），分析人士表示，莫桑比克Mozal冶炼厂停产将削弱明年全球铝供应，令该冶炼厂的 核心欧盟客户寻找替代品。 ING此前曾预计全球铝市料出现200,000吨的供需缺口。 数据显示，在2025年前10个月，该冶炼厂向欧盟发运铝430,000吨，这也令莫桑比克成为欧盟的主要金 属供应来源地，占欧盟地区铝进口总量的五分之一。 LME基准三个月期铝价格周三大约报每吨2,880美元，距离11月3日和12月5日触及的2,920美元的三年多 高点不远。 ING分析师Ewa Manthey在一份报告中称，"我们预计明年铝市的供需缺口料约为600,000吨。" 欧洲完税铝升水在12月初触及每吨340美元的10个月高点，周三大约报每吨326美元。 "欧洲可能主要通过增加自加拿大和中东地区的铝进口来填补莫扎尔铝冶炼厂关闭造成的供应缺口。" 行业组织欧洲铝业（European Aluminium）估计，欧洲原铝的需求约为900万吨/年。 South32周二证实，在与公用事业公司和莫桑比克政府的谈判未能达成新的电力协议后，年产能为 560,000吨的Mozal冶炼厂将从3月中旬开始进行维护和保养。 欧盟新的碳边境调整机 ...

2025年10月，全球锡矿产量为2.59万吨,2025年1-10月，全球锡矿产量为24.72万吨。 （文华综合） 2025年1-10月，全球精炼锡产量为29.07万吨，消费量为30.91万吨，供应短缺1.84万吨。 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年10月，全球精炼锡产量为3.13万吨，消费量为 3.47万吨，供应短缺0.35万吨。 ...

秘鲁在2024年出口了价值155亿美元的黄金，较前一年的110亿美元大幅增长。据行业数据和当地金融监 管机构估计，这些黄金中约有40%来自非法来源。 （文华综合） 在12月初获得初步批准后，正式通过所需的第二次投票以13票赞成、4票反对和2票弃权获得通过。 这是REINFO许可证自十多年前推出以来的第五次延期。该许可涵盖了开采黄金和铜的小规模非正规矿 商，它们凭借这些临时许可证获得了运营许可。 秘鲁警方和业内人士称，在国际市场贵金属价格处于纪录高位水平之际，临时许可证也助长了非法采矿 的激增。 12月17日（周三），秘鲁国会周三批准将小规模矿商的临时许可证延长一年，至2026年年底。 秘鲁政府此前曾反对一项试图将被称为REINFO的临时许可证延长两年的提案。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose over 1% on December 17, closing at $11,737 per ton, driven by concerns over potential supply shortages and a stronger financial market attracting speculative buying [1][3] - The copper market has increased approximately 34% year-to-date, with recent weeks seeing record highs due to fears of production disruptions leading to supply gaps in the coming year [3] - Other base metals on the LME also saw price increases, with three-month tin rising by $1,250 or 3.05%, and three-month aluminum up by $29 or 1.01% [2][5] Group 2 - ING's commodity strategist Ewa Manthey indicated that the copper market fundamentals remain tight, with expectations of a copper average price of $11,500 per ton in 2026, potentially reaching nearly $12,000 in the second quarter [4] - The rise in oil prices, influenced by U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, is expected to increase mining costs, which will be passed on to metal prices [5] - The Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique is set to undergo maintenance until March next year due to failed negotiations with the government over electricity supply, which will weaken global aluminum supply [5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by 0.89% to $11,695.5 per ton, supported by supply concerns and demand driven by data centers and energy transition [1] - SHFE copper futures closed up 0.40% at 92,820 yuan per ton, maintaining above $11,600 per ton [1] - LME aluminum rose by 0.28% to $2,884.5 per ton, while SHFE aluminum increased by 0.55% to 21,915 yuan per ton, influenced by South32's maintenance of its Mozal smelter in Mozambique [1] - Analysts from ING Economics noted that the closure of the smelter is expected to keep global long-term inventories low, leading to further price increases next year [1] Group 2 - LME zinc rose by 0.18% to $3,047 per ton, while tin increased by 2.1% to $41,885 per ton, and lead went up by 0.44% to $1,950.5 per ton [2] - In the Shanghai market, SHFE zinc fell by 0.73% to 22,970 yuan per ton, and lead decreased by 0.83% to 16,735 yuan per ton, while tin rose by 1.73% to 328,600 yuan per ton [2]

对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，虽然CSPT小组达成降低矿铜产能负荷等共识，但目前冶炼利润尚有硫 酸支撑，且临近年底冶炼或仍回升。进出口方面，因出口打开，国内可能继续有出口安排。消费端，近 期下游消费表现仍走弱，开工保持在季节性低位。国内平衡无过剩压力的主要驱动或来源于出口。海外 方面，LME注销仓单大幅提升，紧张预期提前反映。展望后市，宏观边际上驱动放缓，基本面非美紧 张预期持续存在，短期宏微观驱动分化，价格或回归宽幅震荡。 沪铜早间小幅低开，日内行情回暖，收盘上涨0.4%。喜忧参半的美国非农数据一定程度提振美联储降 息预期，市场氛围偏暖，高铜价对需求的压制仍然存在，但矿端支撑同样较强。 隔夜公布的美国11月非农数据喜忧参半，虽然新增就业人口超过预期，但是失业率攀升至4.6%，为逾 四年高位，考虑到失业率的攀升可能受美国政府停摆影响，对于美国劳动力市场表现后续仍需跟踪。 最近国内铜精矿现货加工费低位运行，铜精矿市场活跃度一般，更多聚焦于长单谈判，矿紧仍将持续对 铜价形成支撑。上周五沪铜再创新高，最近期价也一直高位震荡，精废价差仍然高企，精铜消费受抑 制，12月初以来国内精铜社会库存持续回升，截至周初升至17万吨 ...

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a slow decline in lead inventory last week, followed by a significant accumulation over two days this week, with the latest inventory level reaching 268,450 tons, marking a four-month high [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that during the week of December 12, lead inventory continued to decrease, with a weekly reduction of 7.22% to 32,227 tons, hitting a new low in over a year [1] Group 2 - Generally, the continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges tends to support price levels, while an increase in inventories may exert downward pressure on prices [3] - A comparison of LME and Shanghai Futures lead inventory data since the beginning of 2023 shows significant fluctuations in inventory levels [4]

Group 1: Metal Inventory Changes - Copper inventory increased by 325 tons, reaching a total of 166,925 tons, with a change of +0.20% [1] - Aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 519,600 tons, with no variation [1] - Zinc inventory rose by 2,150 tons to 97,700 tons, reflecting a +2.25% change [1] - Nickel inventory increased by 690 tons to 253,998 tons, showing a +0.27% change [1] - Tin inventory saw a significant increase of 375 tons, totaling 4,190 tons, which is a +9.83% change [1] Group 2: Registered and Cancelled Warehouse Receipts - Registered warehouse receipts for copper increased by 102,475 tons, with a change of +0.27%, while cancelled receipts rose to 64,450 tons, up by +0.08% [2] - For aluminum, registered receipts decreased by 1.47% to 445,925 tons, while cancelled receipts increased by 9.96% to 73,675 tons [2] - Zinc registered receipts increased by 5.14% to 9,492 tons, while cancelled receipts decreased by 2.04% to 9,492 tons [2] - Tin registered receipts rose by 10.25% to 4,035 tons, with cancelled receipts remaining at 155 tons [2] Group 3: Specific Warehouse Inventory Changes - The inventory of copper in Changsha remained stable at 79,125 tons, with no incoming or outgoing changes [4] - In Kaohsiung, the copper inventory increased by 750 tons to 41,125 tons [4] - Rotterdam's aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 3,450 tons, with registered receipts at 2,450 tons [6] - The inventory of tin in Port Klang increased by 130 tons to 2,365 tons, while the inventory in Rotterdam rose by 150 tons to 560 tons [12]

Group 1 - The report by Kearney and the World Economic Forum indicates that global lithium supply can only meet one-third (35%) of the projected demand by 2035 [1][2] - It warns that the pace of electrification, digitalization, and emission reduction is outstripping the supply of necessary mineral resources [2] - Lithium supply needs to more than double by 2035, with demand for rare earth elements and copper needing to increase by over 50% to meet expected needs [2][3] Group 2 - Even if all announced projects are implemented, existing mines and smelters can only meet 35-45% of the projected lithium and graphite demand [3] - Global electric vehicle demand is expected to exceed 20 million units by 2025, with electric vehicles accounting for over 40% of new car sales by 2030 [3] - The report highlights a significant time mismatch in the value chain, as battery and motor factories can scale production in 1-3 years, while new mining projects typically require 10-20 years for development [3][4] Group 3 - Delays in grid construction will have a cascading effect, slowing down the deployment of electric vehicle charging networks, renewable energy projects, and new digital facilities [4] - The report emphasizes the urgent need for bold supply-side investments and smarter demand-side actions to ensure the resilience of critical mineral supply chains [4] Group 4 - Global data center capacity is projected to triple by 2035, supported by investments ranging from $3 trillion to $7 trillion before 2030 [4] - Data centers will consume 6% of global gallium resources and 2.4% of germanium resources by 2035, which are essential for semiconductors and sensors [4] Group 5 - The supply risks for gallium, germanium, and rare earth elements are exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, market financing uncertainties, and infrastructure bottlenecks [5][6] - The current challenge is not the availability of materials but the actual access to these materials, as global demand for data centers and semiconductor capacity expands [6] Group 6 - The European battery industry is rapidly expanding, with over €82 billion committed to building gigafactories, primarily from EU member states [6][7] - By 2030, these projects are expected to achieve an annual production capacity exceeding 1.2 terawatt-hours, enabling Europe to meet its own demand and become a global exporter [7] Group 7 - Any weakening of EU automotive emission standards could undermine investment confidence in the battery industry, jeopardizing the foundational agreements that ensure long-term demand [7] - The report warns that without stable demand policies, Europe risks becoming dependent on imported battery materials, losing the opportunity to establish a competitive and autonomous industrial base [7]