Group 1: Copper Market Overview - On September 30, LME copper prices declined as traders took profits after reaching a 15-month high, with three-month copper down by $145.5, or 1.4%, closing at $10,268.5 per ton [1] - The copper price increased by 4% in the third quarter, influenced by the suspension of operations at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, leading analysts to lower supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The LME spot copper premium narrowed from $73 per ton to $28 per ton, reflecting reduced supply expectations due to Grasberg's operational pause [3] Group 2: Chinese Market Dynamics - The Yangshan copper premium, indicating China's copper import demand, fell by 6% to a six-week low of $50 per ton, as trading activity is expected to be limited during China's National Day holiday from October 1 to 8 [3] - China's manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [3] Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month aluminum prices increased by $1.5, or 0.06%, while zinc prices rose by $19.5, or 0.66% [2] - Three-month lead prices decreased by $6.5, or 0.33%, with Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventories dropping by 15% to the lowest level since February [4] - Three-month tin prices fell by $80, or 0.23%, closing at $35,410.0 per ton, despite reaching a high of $35,510 on April 4 [4]

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a continued decline in zinc inventory, reaching 41,950 tons, marking a new low in over two years [1] - In contrast, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) showed a slight accumulation of zinc inventory, increasing by 1.24% to 100,544 tons, which is the highest level in over a year [1] Inventory Comparison - As of September 29, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 41,950 tons, down from 42,775 tons on September 26, 2025 [5] - SHFE zinc inventory on September 26, 2025, was 100,544 tons, reflecting a continuous increase over fourteen weeks [1][5] - The trend indicates that declining inventories on domestic and international exchanges generally support price increases, while rising inventories may exert downward pressure on prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have reached their highest level since May of last year, driven by supply-side disruptions and improving manufacturing sentiment in China, although downstream demand remains subdued [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The night trading session for copper saw a high opening and a closing increase of 1.27%, with prices slightly retreating during the day [1] - The US dollar index is under pressure, contributing to a generally positive trend in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points in September, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, and risks of a US government shutdown have increased, further pressuring the US dollar [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The disruption at the Grasberg mine has been largely priced in, but copper prices have shifted to a higher trading range with strong support below [1] - Domestic refined copper social inventory has shown a significant increase due to high copper prices suppressing downstream demand and the end of pre-holiday stockpiling [1] - Despite being the traditional peak demand season, downstream performance in the copper market is weak, with low stocking sentiment among downstream enterprises due to high prices and short-term pricing periods [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Grasberg project's shutdown is expected to continue to lower the growth forecast for refined copper production in the coming years [1] - China's target for average growth in non-ferrous metal production has been adjusted down to 1.5% for the next two years, with expectations of continued production cuts in October [1] - The low social inventory levels suggest that copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend in the short term [1]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the changes in metal inventories at the London Metal Exchange (LME), highlighting fluctuations in stock levels for various metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and nickel. Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 500 tons to 143,400 tons, reflecting a decline of 0.35% [1] - Aluminum inventory saw a reduction of 2,175 tons, bringing the total to 513,425 tons, a decrease of 0.42% [1] - Zinc inventory dropped by 1,000 tons to 40,950 tons, marking a decline of 2.38% [1] - Tin inventory increased by 80 tons to 2,750 tons, an increase of 3.00% [1] - Aluminum alloy inventory remained unchanged at 1,500 tons [1] Warehouse Specific Changes - The registered warehouse stocks for copper were 133,725 tons, with a cancellation rate of 6.75% [2] - For aluminum, registered stocks were 412,675 tons, with a cancellation rate of 19.62% [2] - Zinc registered stocks stood at 30,625 tons, with a cancellation rate of 25.21% [2] - Tin registered stocks were 2,300 tons, with a cancellation rate of 16.36% [2] - Nickel inventory remained stable with no changes reported [12] Location-Based Inventory - The inventory for copper in Rotterdam was stable at 15,825 tons, while in Singapore it decreased by 125 tons to 8,700 tons [4] - Aluminum inventory in Klang decreased by 2,050 tons to 333,000 tons, while in Kaohsiung it remained unchanged at 45,300 tons [5] - Zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 1,000 tons to 40,850 tons [9] - Tin inventory in various locations showed minor fluctuations, with the largest increase of 80 tons in both Klang and Port Klang [11]

Group 1: Anglo American and Codelco Merger - Anglo American and Codelco have finalized an agreement to merge their Los Bronces and Andina copper mining operations, positioning them among the top five copper producers globally [1] - The collaboration is set for 21 years and is expected to release an additional 2.7 million tons of copper, with a pre-tax net present value increase of at least $5 billion [1] - The joint mining plan aims to extract an additional 120,000 tons of copper annually, reducing unit costs by approximately 15% compared to independent operations [1] Group 2: Current Production and Future Outlook - Los Bronces has an estimated copper reserve of about 8 million tons, but its annual production has decreased by 20% year-on-year, from 215,500 tons to 172,400 tons due to maintenance and expected lower ore grades [2] - Andina mine has copper reserves of 36.8 million tons with an average ore grade of 0.78% [3] - Market analysts warn of a potential supply-demand gap in the copper market by 2030, driven by increased demand for base metals, particularly in battery manufacturing [3] Group 3: Anglo American and Teck Resources Merger - Anglo American has reached an agreement with Teck Resources to merge and form Anglo Teck, which, pending regulatory approval, will be the largest mining merger in over a decade [4] - The new company will rank among the top five copper producers globally, with copper operations accounting for 70% of its business [4] - The combined market capitalization of the two companies exceeds $53 billion, with 62.4% of shares held by Anglo American's original shareholders [4] Group 4: Additional Assets and Production Projections - The merged entity will possess six copper assets along with high-quality iron ore and zinc operations [5] - Quellaveco copper mine, located in Peru, is recognized as one of the lowest-cost new copper mining projects globally, with an expected production of approximately 300,000 tons per year over the next decade [6][7] - Teck Resources is projected to produce 446,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2024, with total proven and probable copper reserves of 33 million tons [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is driven by supply concerns following Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining operations and slow recovery in Myanmar's tin production [1]. Group 1: Market Movements - Tin prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a significant increase, with the main contract rising nearly 4% before narrowing its gains, and continuing to show over 2% increase in early trading today [1]. - The market is currently experiencing high volatility, reflecting ongoing supply concerns [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Developments - Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal mining sites in Bangka-Belitung province, which is expected to tighten supply further [1]. - The slow recovery of tin production in Myanmar is contributing to a sustained tight supply situation in the market [1]. - Indonesia's efforts to combat illegal mining and smuggling are raising market apprehensions regarding future supply [1].

Group 1: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices increased by $232.5, or 2.28%, closing at $10,414.0 per ton on September 29, driven by a weaker dollar and concerns over global supply due to an incident at the Grasberg copper mine [1][3] - The Grasberg mine has been suspended since September 8 following a fatal landslide, leading analysts to lower supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The copper market is expected to remain supported due to tightening conditions caused by disruptions at the Grasberg mine [3] Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month aluminum prices rose by $23.5, or 0.88%, to $2,679.0 per ton, while zinc prices increased by $52.0, or 1.80%, to $2,940.5 per ton [2] - Tin prices surged by $987.0, or 2.86%, closing at $35,490.0 per ton, reaching a high not seen since April 4 [4] Group 3: Industry Growth Projections - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, released a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [3] - The plan includes goals for a 1.5% average annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals, with significant progress expected in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government has initiated a crackdown on illegal mining operations in Bangka Belitung province, aiming to prevent significant financial losses and enhance national revenue through stricter enforcement measures [2] Group 1: Government Actions - President Prabowo Subianto ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal mining sites in Bangka Belitung province [2] - The initiative began on September 1 and is expected to prevent losses of up to 450 trillion rupiah (approximately 28 billion USD) by 2026 [2] - All smuggling routes have been blocked, ensuring that illegal mining activities cannot continue [2] Group 2: Industry Impact - Approximately 80% of tin production in Bangka Belitung is smuggled abroad through various channels, including small boats and passenger ships [2] - The government is focusing on the potential value of rare earth minerals found in mining waste, which have been overlooked for a long time [2] Group 3: Future Plans - The government plans to recruit chemical experts to assist customs and tax authorities in identifying valuable minerals [2] - There is a strong commitment from the government to combat illegal mining and strengthen national fiscal revenue [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tin prices is driven by supply concerns following Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining operations, which is expected to significantly impact the country's tin production and exports [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Concerns - Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal mining sites in Bangka Belitung province, which is expected to prevent losses of up to 450 trillion rupiah (approximately $28 billion) by 2026 [2]. - Approximately 80% of tin production in Bangka Belitung is smuggled abroad through various means, including small boats and passenger ships [2]. - The International Tin Association projected that Indonesia's refined tin output could drop to below 50,000 tons in 2024, marking a 20-year low [4]. Group 2: Price Movements - As of September 29, LME three-month tin prices rose by 2.8% to $35,455 per ton, reaching a peak of $35,510, the highest level since April 4 [2][6]. - The Shanghai tin futures contract also saw a significant increase, climbing 3.9% to a maximum of 283,000 yuan, the highest since April 3 for the main continuous contract [3].

此前由于自由港宣布印尼Grasberg矿遭遇不可抗力并下调铜销量预测，这一事态发展明显超出前期预 期，市场对于矿紧矛盾激化担忧升温，内外铜价受振大涨，大涨过后期价基本消化本次矿端干扰，随后 铜价高位调整。截至上周五国内铜精矿现货加工费低位微升，但幅度有限，供需博弈下加工费暂时低位 企稳。 沪铜早间低开，日内跌幅有所收窄，收盘微跌0.21%。矿端干扰有所消化，临近双节下游备货基本结 束，高铜价对需求有所抑制，国内社库明显增加，铜价偏弱震荡。 》周末全国主流地区铜库存增加0.82万吨【SMM周度数据】 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，平衡预期在铜矿扰动下转入缺口，但现实层面尚待兑现。展望后市，降 息预期分歧和消费偏弱是持续突破的限制因素，但矿山影响量较大，预计限制回落空间，整体运行重心 已上移。后续需持续关注其恢复进展。 （文华综合） ...