Overall Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" theme is gaining traction across various industries, including photovoltaics, with significant policy support and stronger actions expected to continue into Q3 2025 [3] - Short-term price increases in silicon materials are a response to policy changes, with N-type polysilicon prices rising to 43-49 yuan/kg, and subsequent price increases in solar cells and modules anticipated [3] Mid-term Focus - Attention is on whether silicon material "stockpiling" can be achieved, with key concerns around the valuation of the stockpiled capacity and the interest costs for funding parties [4] - The market expects that if the stockpiled capacity is valued at net asset value with a discount, the implicit market pricing logic suggests silicon prices should not exceed 40 yuan/kg; otherwise, administrative intervention may be necessary [4] - Funding parties are likely to participate if the initial price of stockpiled capacity is low, and if stockpiling can clear supply while maintaining silicon prices above 50 yuan/kg [4] Wind Power - Wind power is expected to benefit from "anti-involution" policies, with significant earnings elasticity anticipated in the wind turbine segment by 2026 due to larger units and cost reductions in components [4] - The 136 document reshapes the logic of new energy installations, with improved output curves for wind power likely leading to a recovery in wind power development and project sales [4] - Short-term pressures on wind power bidding and Q2 performance are expected, but the market is gradually digesting these issues, with improving expectations for related indicators [4] Solid-State Batteries - The outlook for solid-state batteries remains positive, despite recent weak performance due to prior high price increases [5] - Focus on all-solid-state battery equipment and lithium sulfide in the supply chain, which are expected to benefit from new tenders from major lithium battery manufacturers [5] - Attention is also on the progress of semi-solid batteries and electrolyte modifications, as liquid or semi-solid batteries can adopt solid-state processes, leading to better performance and faster implementation [5] Energy Storage - Mid-term profitability improvements for large-scale energy storage depend on the development of the electricity market and increased trading flexibility, with ongoing subsidies needed in the short term [6] - The commercial model for large-scale energy storage is expected to improve, necessitating continuous monitoring of tender data changes in the second half of the year [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching its highest point of the year. Trading sentiment improved as major broad-based indices showed increased volume, signaling a bullish outlook as of July 11, 2025 [3][5]. - All major indices rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.09%, the Shanghai 50 by 0.60%, the CSI 300 by 0.82%, the CSI 500 by 1.96%, the CSI 1000 by 2.36%, the ChiNext Index by 2.36%, and the Northbound 50 Index by 0.41% [5]. Valuation Insights - As of July 11, 2025, broad-based indices such as the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext are at a "moderate" valuation level, while the Shanghai 50 is at a "danger" valuation level [6]. - In terms of sector valuation, industries such as home appliances, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are classified as "safe" [7]. Market Dynamics - The market exhibited reversal characteristics last week, suggesting that the trend may continue, particularly benefiting low-valuation investments [4]. - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index constituents decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a weakening short-term Alpha environment [8]. - Time series volatility for the CSI 300 index constituents increased week-on-week, suggesting an improvement in the Alpha environment, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 constituents saw a decrease [9]. Fund Flow Analysis - Institutional research indicated that the top five stocks attracting the most attention from institutions last week were Lexin Technology (125 institutions), Haopeng Technology (111), Zoli Pharmaceutical (91), Xiangyu Medical (77), and Nandu Property (76) [11]. - For the period of July 7-11, 2025, southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 26.356 billion, with the Shanghai Stock Connect net inflow at HKD 11.520 billion and the Shenzhen Stock Connect at HKD 14.836 billion [12]. - The median return for stock ETFs last week was 1.19%, with a net inflow of CNY 899 million, while the median return for Hong Kong stock ETFs was 0.52% with a net inflow of HKD 4.848 billion [12].

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply and demand in China remains stable, with expectations for electricity consumption growth in the coming years [3][4]. Group 1: Coal Market Overview - The summer national coal trading conference was held on July 10, 2025, emphasizing the need for the coal and electricity sectors to adapt to new roles in the power system and strengthen coal supply-demand connections [3]. - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 628 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7 RMB/ton (+1.06%) [4]. - The average price of thermal mixed coal in Yulin, Shaanxi, remained stable at 475 RMB/ton [4]. - The FOB price of thermal coal at Newcastle port in Australia was 65 USD/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.37% [4]. Group 2: Production and Inventory Levels - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.3%, a week-on-week increase of 2.6 percentage points, but still at a five-year low [5]. - The average daily pig iron output was 240.79 million tons, with a slight decrease of 0.6% week-on-week but a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [5]. - As of July 11, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.6 million tons, down 1.75% week-on-week, while inventory at Bohai Rim ports was 26.89 million tons, down 2.36% week-on-week [6]. - The inventory of independent coking plants was 7.5244 million tons, up 5.02% week-on-week, while sample steel mills had 7.8293 million tons, down 0.84% week-on-week [6]. Group 3: Seasonal and Environmental Factors - The outflow from the Three Gorges Dam increased to 24,186 cubic meters per second, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 25.04% and a year-on-year increase of 14.78% [5].

Market Performance Overview - The oil index experienced a significant increase, while the domestic equity market continued its upward trend, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.36%. In contrast, US stocks saw a slight pullback [2] - Most of the Shenwan first-level industries rose, with real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors leading the gains, while coal, banking, automotive, and household appliances sectors declined [2] Fund Product Issuance - The domestic new fund market showed overall improvement, with 35 new funds established, totaling 24.909 billion units issued. This included 14 bond funds, 13 equity funds, 1 REIT, 2 FOFs, and 5 mixed funds [3] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Except for consumer-themed funds, most thematic funds continued to rise, with new energy and financial real estate funds performing relatively well. As of July 11, 2025, the respective performance of various thematic funds was as follows: new energy (1.62%), financial real estate (1.39%), TMT (1.32%), and others [4] Passive Index Fund Performance - The median net value change for passive equity index funds was 1.2%, with strong performances from themes such as Hong Kong securities, rare earths, and financial technology [5] ETF Market Tracking - Domestic equity ETFs saw a reversal in fund flows, primarily moving towards small-cap, sci-tech board, and industry ETFs. The median return for equity ETFs was 1.19%, with a net inflow of 899 million yuan. Hong Kong ETFs also saw a net inflow of 4.848 billion yuan [6] Fund Position Monitoring - The estimated position of actively managed equity funds decreased by 0.11 percentage points compared to the previous week. Increased allocations were observed in telecommunications, automotive, and public utilities, while reductions were noted in non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical sectors [7] ESG Financial Product Tracking - A total of 29 new green bonds were issued this week, with a cumulative issuance scale of 32.475 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a total issuance scale of 4.66 trillion yuan and 3,983 bonds issued as of July 11, 2025 [8] ESG Fund Performance - The median net value change for actively managed equity, passive index equity, and bond ESG funds was 0.98%, 1.03%, and -0.05%, respectively. As of July 11, 2025, there were 213 existing ESG funds in the domestic market, with a total scale of 135.564 billion yuan [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continued appeal of high dividend strategies in a low interest rate environment, particularly highlighting the construction sector's leading companies as attractive investment opportunities due to their favorable dividend yields and valuation metrics [3]. Group 1: High Dividend Strategy - In a low interest rate environment projected to continue into 2025, high dividend strategies remain effective, especially within the banking sector, where dividend yields have decreased as stock prices rise [3]. - As of July 11, 2025, the average dividend yield of the six major banks fell below 4%, with an average yield of 3.88%, down 69 basis points from the end of 2024 [3]. - China State Construction's dividend yield is approximately 4.47%, surpassing the average yield of the six major banks, indicating a strong value proposition [3]. Group 2: Construction Payment Priority - The priority of construction payment claims over mortgage rights and other debts has been reinforced, with regulations ensuring that contractors can demand payment from clients within a reasonable timeframe [4]. - The Ministry of Finance has committed to issuing 800 billion yuan in new special bonds annually for five consecutive years to support debt resolution efforts, with ongoing initiatives in 2025 to enhance payment clearance [4][5]. - Local governments, such as Hunan and Yunnan, have increased their budgets to address outstanding payments to enterprises, indicating a proactive approach to resolving payment issues [4][5]. Group 3: China State Construction's Dividend Policy - China State Construction has maintained a stable dividend policy, with an average payout ratio of 20.3% and a cumulative payout ratio of 20.1%, leading among the eight major state-owned construction enterprises [6]. - The company plans to keep its dividend per share stable in 2025, providing predictable returns for shareholders [6]. - The company's major shareholder, China State Construction Group, holds a 57.7% stake, benefiting from the stable cash flow generated by the company's dividends to support its strategic initiatives and debt obligations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in pig prices and the overall performance of the pig farming industry, highlighting changes in supply, demand, and pricing dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Pig Price Trends - As of July 11, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 14.81 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.52%. The average price for 15 kg piglets was 31.89 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.79% [3]. - The average weight of market pigs sold this week was 129.03 kg, which is an increase of 0.39 kg compared to the previous week. The national frozen product inventory rate rose to 14.31%, up by 0.08 percentage points [3]. Group 2: June Sales Report Analysis - In June, 13 listed pig companies collectively sold 16.2681 million pigs, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.65% and a year-on-year increase of 47.55%. Major companies like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope saw varying changes in their sales volumes [4]. - The total number of market pigs sold in June was approximately 13.5449 million, with a month-on-month increase of 3.30% and a year-on-year increase of 43.36%. The sales of piglets decreased slightly by 1.90% month-on-month but increased by 74.14% year-on-year [4]. - The average selling price of market pigs decreased due to inventory reduction, with most companies experiencing a price drop of less than 3% month-on-month and approximately 20% year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Weight and Pricing Dynamics - The average weight of market pigs sold in June was 125.06 kg, down by 0.77 kg month-on-month, indicating a trend towards reducing weight as companies adjust to market conditions [4]. - The average selling price varied among companies, with the lowest at 13.23 yuan/kg and the highest at 15.57 yuan/kg, with most companies maintaining prices between 14-15 yuan/kg [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in oil prices driven by seasonal demand, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production strategies, highlighting the complex dynamics of the global oil market [3][4][6]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The current oil price rebound is attributed to the peak summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $70.63 and $68.75 per barrel, reflecting increases of 3.1% and 3.4% respectively from the previous week [3]. - OPEC+ has announced plans to accelerate its production targets, with a significant increase of 710,000 barrels per day from Saudi Arabia in June, exceeding its quota [4]. Group 2: Production and Demand Forecasts - IEA has adjusted its forecasts for global oil supply growth, predicting an increase of 2.1 million barrels per day by 2025, with OPEC+ contributing 700,000 barrels per day and non-OPEC+ contributing 1.4 million barrels per day [4]. - Despite a downward revision in demand growth expectations, IEA anticipates a seasonal peak in refinery output, with an increase of 3.7 million barrels per day from May to August, reaching a total of 85.4 million barrels per day [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The European Union is moving towards implementing a new price cap mechanism on Russian oil, potentially lowering the current cap from $60 to around $50 per barrel, which aims to maintain pressure on Russian oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, which may lead to short-term fluctuations in copper prices and affect global supply dynamics [3]. Macro Analysis - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, 2025, which may halt the arbitrage of copper inventory flowing to the U.S. since February 2025 [3]. - The SHFE copper closing price was 78,430 CNY/ton, down 1.63% from July 4, while LME copper closed at 9,663 USD/ton, down 1.92% [3]. Inventory Overview - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 9% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 12% [4]. - As of July 11, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 646,000 tons, down 3.1% from the previous week [4]. Raw Material Insights - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 836 CNY/ton this week [5]. - China's copper concentrate production in March 2025 was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. Smelting Data - The TC spot price remained around -43 USD/ton, indicating low levels not seen since September 2007 [6]. - China's electrolytic copper production in June 2025 was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.3% month-on-month but up 12.9% year-on-year [6]. Demand Analysis - Cable operating rates increased by 3.7 percentage points week-on-week, with cable demand accounting for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [7]. - Air conditioning production is expected to slow down, with year-on-year declines projected for July to September [7]. Futures Market - SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 12.6% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 17.6% [8]. - As of July 11, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions were at 179,000 lots, which is at the 48th percentile since 1995 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, driven by increased risk appetite and positive market sentiment, with the ChiNext index experiencing the largest gains among major indices [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has rebounded this week, influenced by rising policy expectations and improved market sentiment, with most major indices showing upward trends [3]. - The ChiNext index recorded the highest increase among major indices this week [3]. - Sector performance varied, with real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performing relatively well [3]. Group 2: Industry Earnings Outlook - The upcoming earnings season is expected to favor industries with strong mid-year performance, as these sectors typically see better stock price movements in July and August [4]. - Historical data indicates that industries with strong earnings in July and August have a higher probability of achieving excess returns [4]. - The manufacturing sector is predicted to have the highest earnings growth, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 10.0%, followed by TMT and financial real estate sectors [4]. - The TMT sector is expected to show the most significant improvement, with a projected year-on-year growth increase of 5.8 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Earnings Predictions - High predicted net profit growth rates are expected in the light industry, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and social services sectors [5]. - In contrast, sectors such as steel, real estate, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities may face profit growth pressures [5]. - The construction materials, electronics, communications, retail, and computer sectors are anticipated to show significant improvement compared to the first quarter [5]. - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share earnings is currently at 72%, with high pre-announcement rates in real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and environmental protection sectors [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is expected to trend upwards in the second half of the year, potentially reaching new highs, with a shift from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven market dynamics [6]. - Short-term focus should be on sectors with favorable mid-year earnings, while long-term attention should be on three main lines: domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks [6]. - In the domestic consumption sector, attention should be given to subsidy-related and offline service consumption [6]. - The technology sector should focus on AI, robotics, semiconductor supply chains, national defense, and low-altitude economy [6].

Market Overview - The convertible bond market continued to rise during the week of July 7 to July 11, 2025, with the China Convertible Bond Index increasing by +0.8%, marking three consecutive weeks of growth [3] - Year-to-date, the China Convertible Bond Index has risen by +8.8%, outperforming the China All Share Index, which has increased by +6.2% [3][7] Performance by Rating and Size - High-rated bonds (AA+ and above), medium-rated bonds (AA), and low-rated bonds (AA- and below) saw weekly changes of +0.84%, +1.02%, and +0.95% respectively, with medium-rated bonds showing the highest increase [4] - In terms of bond size, large-scale bonds (over 5 billion) increased by +0.86%, medium-scale bonds (between 500 million and 5 billion) rose by +1.08%, and small-scale bonds (under 500 million) increased by +0.89%, again with medium-scale bonds leading the gains [4] Price and Valuation Metrics - The average price of convertible bonds is 125.67 yuan, up from 124.53 yuan the previous week, with a percentile value of 95.3% [5][6] - The average conversion price is 98.75 yuan, an increase from 96.58 yuan, with a percentile value of 86.8% [6] - The average conversion premium is 26.9%, down from 28.2% the previous week, with a percentile value of 53.5% [6] Sector Performance - The top 30 performing convertible bonds are primarily from the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors (4 bonds each) and the bottom 30 are mainly from the automotive (5 bonds), light manufacturing (4 bonds), and chemical sectors (4 bonds) [4][7] Future Outlook - The fundamental and macroeconomic policies are crucial factors influencing the convertible bond market, with a focus on areas that can boost domestic demand and counteract excessive competition [7]