吴晓波频道

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吴晓波:出海,在路上
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-06 16:53
点击按钮▲立即预约 " 5 月 8 日是吴晓波频道的创办日,感谢所有在过去的 11 年里陪伴我们一起成长和学习的同学们。每年这个时候,我们都会举办一个系列直播。今年的主题是企业出 海。 " 文 / 吴晓波(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 六月的早晨八点,城市的马路上挤满了密密麻麻的本田摩托车。 旁边紧挨着的是宽敞明亮的名创优品连锁店。马路的尽头,巨大红字的比亚迪海报上写着"WE ARE NO.1"。 这一幅生动的街景,是越南胡志明市的清晨。事实上,在今天的东南亚很多国家,都可以目睹类似的场景。 胡志明市富洞六路十字路口 2023年6月,我去印尼调研,当地朋友组织 了 一些创业者与我座谈。刚刚坐下来,一个人就悄悄把一杯咖啡递到我手里,他学瑞幸模式,在短短 一年时间里开了 200多家连锁店。一位做化妆品的创业者上台介绍他的公司,在PPT的最后一页,他写了四个字: "生而全球"。 我当时身躯一震。他是替一代出海人喊出了时代的宣言。 去年是我的最后一场 "吴晓波年终秀",我将这四个字定为中场演讲的主题,在我看来,"生而全球"浪潮与人工智能革命,是这一代中国创业者最 为重要的两个百年机遇。 一个年轻人的车后座,斜绑着一台AQ ...
5月6日—5月8日,“出海,在路上”吴晓波频道11周年系列直播正式开启
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-05 16:41
点击按钮▲ 预约直播 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 当2025年特朗普政府的关税壁垒如飓风般席卷全球产业链,订单锐减与成本激增的阴霾下,中 国企业的出海征途却显露出别样韧性——这场看似突如其来的危机,实则是中国制造全球化基 因觉醒后的又一次淬炼。 从海尔在欧美供应链的20年深耕,到万向集团横跨12国的汽车零部件帝国,这些穿越周期的商 业叙事,绝非危机倒逼的权宜之计,而是民族工业融入世界脉搏的战略觉醒。 正如吴老师在2024首届出海全球峰会所言:"留给中国企业的出海窗口期仅剩5—10年",但历 史告诉我们,真正的全球化布局需要以十年为单位丈量。 5月8日,是吴晓波频道11岁的生日,在11周年庆之际,我们策划了主题为"出海,在路上"系列 直播活动。 吴老师将和六位实战派出海领航者展开深度对话。 三场直播的主题分别是: 工对波兰HSW集团工程机械事业部的收购及并购后的整合管理,足迹遍布全球近50个国家和地 区。 林雪萍:全球产业观察家、上海交通大学中国质量发展研究院客座研究员。 过去3年,林雪萍 调研国内外100多家工厂,访谈了200多位海外亲历者,并前往德国、匈牙利、泰国、越南、墨 西哥等不同地区国家 ...
去美国开工厂的中国人
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-05 16:41
Core Viewpoint - A trend of Chinese manufacturers establishing factories in the U.S. is emerging, driven by high tariffs and the need for more stable supply chains, as well as the desire to reduce costs and increase competitiveness in the American market [9][32][39]. Group 1: Manufacturing Trends - Chinese manufacturers are increasingly seeking to set up operations in the U.S. to mitigate the impact of tariffs and to adapt to changing market conditions [9][32]. - The "factory within a factory" model is becoming popular, allowing Chinese companies to utilize existing American facilities and resources, thus reducing initial investment costs [14][16]. - Many Chinese manufacturers are transitioning from "Made in China" to "Assembled in USA," which helps in lowering tariffs and improving market access [15][28]. Group 2: Cost Structure - The cost of setting up operations in the U.S. is primarily driven by labor and facility expenses, with average hourly wages for U.S. manufacturing workers being significantly higher than those in China [48][49]. - Simplified assembly lines can be established at low costs, with per-unit costs as low as $10, depending on the product [18][19]. - The use of local resources and labor can help mitigate some of the high costs associated with U.S. manufacturing [16][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - U.S. retailers are increasingly interested in sourcing locally to ensure stable supply chains, even if it means paying higher prices [39][41]. - The shift towards local assembly is seen as a way to enhance product competitiveness and to counteract the effects of tariffs [37][39]. - The demand for American-made products is rising, with many U.S. brands preferring to work with local manufacturers to avoid the risks associated with overseas supply chains [39][64]. Group 4: Challenges and Limitations - Despite the potential benefits, challenges such as high labor costs, regulatory complexities, and a lack of skilled labor in the U.S. manufacturing sector remain significant hurdles [52][56]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and the potential for fluctuating tariffs adds to the risk for manufacturers considering U.S. operations [58][61]. - The current manufacturing landscape in the U.S. is still developing, and many Chinese companies face difficulties in scaling their operations effectively [56][68].
这个五一,结婚的人肉眼可见得少了
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-04 16:21
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of romantic relationships and marriage in China, highlighting a shift towards a "buyer’s market" in the marriage industry, driven by declining marriage rates and changing attitudes among younger generations [2][10][14]. Group 1: Marriage Trends and Statistics - The marriage registration rate in China has reached a historical low, with only 181,000 couples registered in Q1 2025, a significant drop from previous years [10]. - Regions with the lowest marriage rates include Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin, prompting local governments to offer financial incentives for marriage [12]. - The demographic shift shows that individuals aged 25-29 are now the primary group getting married, with an increase in marriage registrations among those aged 40 and above [13]. Group 2: Changing Attitudes Towards Relationships - The concept of "light matchmaking" is gaining popularity, where social activities focus on shared interests rather than traditional dating formats, with 73.9% of respondents aware of such activities [18]. - Meeting parents has shifted from a "final exam" to an early relationship milestone, with over 60% of couples introducing families before considering marriage [20][23]. - The most critical material condition for marriage is now a stable job, prioritized by 78% of young people, surpassing savings and property ownership [25][27]. Group 3: Wedding Industry Dynamics - Despite declining marriage rates, the wedding industry is expanding, with 54,000 new wedding-related businesses established in Q1 2025, reflecting an 11% increase from the previous year [30][31]. - The wedding market is projected to reach a scale of 2.84 trillion yuan, driven by a consumer base primarily aged 26-35, who are in a critical phase of career and family formation [35]. - Over 60% of consumers have a wedding budget exceeding 100,000 yuan, indicating a willingness to invest significantly in wedding experiences [38]. Group 4: Innovations in Wedding Practices - New wedding formats are emerging, such as "speed weddings" and the inclusion of pets as "witnesses," reflecting a departure from traditional ceremonies [45][48]. - There is a growing trend towards personalized and DIY wedding planning, with 23.3% opting for completely self-planned weddings [42]. - The demand for pre-wedding rituals and experiences is increasing, with customized travel photography and ethnic attire becoming popular among young couples [54][56].
一个时代的终结:最后的股东大会,巴菲特这样建议美国和普通人
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-04 00:39
点击图片▲立即试听 " 美国是一座宏伟大教堂的结合体,同时它旁边还附带着一个巨大的赌场 …… 赌场里,大家玩得很尽兴,金钱流动频繁,但未来 100 年里,美国必须确保这座大教堂 不会被赌场吞噬。 " 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 每逢五一假期,有个夜终究要熬,我们总说看一次少一次,但很可能这是真的最后一次。 当地时间上午 9 点,被称作史上最重要的一次巴菲特股东大会在小镇奥马哈举行,负责全程直播的 CNBC 以《一个时代的终结:沃伦 · 巴菲特将 要求伯克希尔董事会任命格雷格 · 阿贝尔取代他担任首席执行官》为主标题,为这次大会定了性。 图源: CNBC 自 1965 年收购一家濒临倒闭的纺织厂以来,沃伦 · 巴菲特和已经去世的搭档查理 · 芒格(享年 99 岁)用 60 年的时间,将其打造成为一家独一 无二的美国企业 —— 伯克希尔哈撒韦,而 60 年来的时间积累,令他成为当代社会独一无二的 " 时代活化石 " 和 " 奥马哈先知 " 。 尽管无人刻意提及,但包括巴菲特本人在内,对于这场有可能是巴菲特最后一次主持的股东大会,人们似乎有了一定默契。 他本人高调宣布了自己权力交接和对未来持股的处置, ...
关税战中美“接触”,但仍要有底线准备
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-02 15:53
从2025年4月2日美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"之后的一个月,白宫发言人多次表示中美两国已经有多次会谈,而中方的态度一直 是"没谈"。 5月1日,微妙的变化出现了。央视旗下新媒体玉渊谭天放出信号: 在美国没有实质性 举动前,中方没必要和美方谈。 但是美国如果希望同中国接触,现阶段对中国来说也没有坏处,中方需要观察甚至逼出美方的真实意 图,掌握谈和打的主动权。 这也许是一个月以来,最积极的一则消息。中国也在明确暗示,可以与美国公开接触,商讨关税问题。关税问题让两国市场都遭遇了意料之外的严 重影响。 但对于中国政府及企业来说,尽管有缓和迹象,现在还得做最坏打算。 当关税事件发酵到 4月底,和外贸相关的关键词出现了众多切面:"转内销""稳定""广交会""就业"…… 点击图片▲立即试听 " 应对外部危机的时候,内部协调 —— 也就是政策的改进,对于稳定信心就显得非常重要。 " 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 关税就像是一面棱镜,折射出了外贸的重要性——大到国家,外贸牵扯到GDP、外汇等重要数据;小到企业、个体和家庭,外贸是手里的筷子、 碗里的饭菜。我们无法把所有的希望,寄托于和谈之上。 图源: ...
对话宝马集团董事长齐普策:融入中国,需要“慢思考”与“快进化”
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-01 15:32
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformation of the automotive industry in China, highlighting BMW's commitment to innovation and collaboration with local partners as it adapts to the rapidly changing market landscape [4][5][10]. Group 1: BMW's Strategy in China - BMW has established itself as a significant player in China, with over 7 million users, and views China as its largest market and innovation hub [9][10]. - The company has integrated local technological advancements, such as AI and collaboration with Chinese firms like Huawei and Alibaba, to enhance its product offerings [11][20]. - BMW's "Home in China" strategy reflects its deep commitment to the Chinese market, aiming to co-create technology and drive innovation alongside local enterprises [10][11]. Group 2: Future of Automotive Industry - The automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving beyond mere technological advancements to a systematic integration of these technologies into products [15][20]. - BMW is focused on balancing innovation with sustainability and quality, ensuring that its vehicles remain a worthwhile investment for consumers [21][25]. - The introduction of the "New Generation" models signifies BMW's commitment to electric and digital innovations while maintaining its core values of driving pleasure and safety [25][26]. Group 3: Globalization and Cooperation - BMW's leadership emphasizes the importance of international cooperation, asserting that global interdependence is crucial for innovation and market success [33][34]. - The company maintains a diverse powertrain strategy, offering multiple driving options to cater to varying consumer preferences across different markets [30][31]. - BMW's experience serves as a model for other Chinese companies aspiring to expand globally, highlighting the necessity of embracing globalization despite current geopolitical challenges [33][34].
全球排长队疯抢,听过拉布布的举个手
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-01 15:32
点击图片▲立即试听 " 只有当一件商品能同时承载情感共鸣、文化认同与社交价值时,它才真正具备了穿透国界、扎根本地的力量。这种力量不仅推动着企业营收增长,更能重塑着世界 对中国文化的认知。 " 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 哪个中国商品能无惧特朗普的 关税,依然畅销美国? 正在排队的美国人民会告诉你,那就是拉布布( Labubu) 。 随着4月25日 推出了新品 第三代搪胶毛绒产品,拉布布掀起了一股全球抢购潮。 尽管在关税影响下,拉布布在美国的售价从22美元涨到了28美元,但在美国洛杉矶门店,排队人数依然多得看不到队尾;到了英国伦敦的牛津 街,抢购粉丝则排得 "转角再转角";意大利米兰的抢购队伍甚至排出了近两条街道。 国内也不例外,许多媒体报道了多地人们排队购买买拉布布新品的情形,有的人甚至排队近两个小时。 一时之间,全世界都在排队购买拉布布,上一次见证这样排队,还是iPhone新机首发 。 当线下人群搭帐篷、搬折叠椅排队时,更多人拿出手机在线上"拼手速"。4月25日, 拉布布所属公司——泡泡玛特 (POP MART)的App登顶美 国App Store购物榜,并且单日排名飙升114位排在免费总榜第 ...
特朗普执政百日,四个关键时刻
吴晓波频道· 2025-04-30 19:21
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tumultuous first 100 days of Trump's presidency, highlighting his numerous executive orders and the resulting economic and political turmoil, including low approval ratings and significant market declines [2][3][5][6][8]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Trump's first 100 days saw a 7.3% drop in the S&P 500 and a 6.8% decline in the Dow Jones, marking the worst performance for U.S. stocks in a president's first 100 days since Nixon in 1973 [3]. - Consumer confidence has fallen for five consecutive months, reaching its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began [3]. - The economic damage from Trump's policies is expected to persist, with rising prices and potential layoffs as businesses adjust to uncertainty [27]. Group 2: Political Turmoil - Trump has faced 211 lawsuits during his presidency, with many related to immigration, tariffs, and education policies, reflecting deep political polarization and concerns over executive power [36][37]. - The article notes that over 100 court rulings have blocked actions deemed illegal by Trump, indicating a strong resistance from the judicial system [37]. - Trump's aggressive stance towards allies and international organizations has led to a reevaluation of U.S. commitments abroad, with some allies seeking to bolster their own defense capabilities [13][14]. Group 3: Trade Policies - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" policy has triggered a global market downturn, with U.S. stock markets losing $6.6 trillion in value over two days [18]. - A significant portion of the American public, including 70% of respondents, believe Trump's tariff policies will negatively impact inflation [27]. - The article mentions that Trump's administration is considering lowering tariffs on China, indicating a potential shift in trade strategy [27]. Group 4: Corporate Reactions - Elon Musk's involvement in the DOGE initiative has faced criticism, with Tesla's stock down 40% and a significant drop in revenue and profit [28]. - Musk's political actions and the resulting backlash have affected Tesla's public perception and operational stability [30]. - The article highlights that the DOGE initiative has not achieved its intended savings, with projected costs outweighing claimed benefits [32].
民营经济促进法获通过,一季度理财规模缩水 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-04-30 19:21
Group 1: Private Economy Promotion Law - The Private Economy Promotion Law was passed and will take effect on May 20, 2025, consisting of 9 chapters and 78 articles aimed at optimizing the development environment for the private economy [2] - This law is the first foundational legislation specifically for the development of the private economy in China, ensuring fair market competition and promoting healthy growth of private enterprises [2] - The law aims to provide legal support for the healthy development of private enterprises, which are sensitive to market changes and require a supportive legal framework rather than excessive restrictions [2] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI - In April, the manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, down 0.4%, while the composite PMI output index fell to 50.2%, a decrease of 1.2% [3] - The decline in PMI is attributed to external trade friction affecting domestic economic performance, particularly a drop in export demand [4][5] Group 3: Guizhou Moutai Financial Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported a 10.67% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q1 2025, reaching 51.443 billion yuan, and an 11.56% increase in net profit to 26.847 billion yuan [6] - The revenue from Moutai's sauce-flavored liquor increased by 18.3%, indicating a successful upgrade in product structure [6] - The company also saw significant growth in overseas markets, with revenue from international sales rising by 37.53% [6] Group 4: Tencent's AI Model Development - Tencent has restructured its mixed Yuan model research system, focusing on three core areas: computing power, algorithms, and data [8] - The establishment of new departments for large language models and multimodal models aims to enhance the capabilities of AI models and improve training efficiency [8] - The demand for AI applications is diversifying, with large language models excelling in deep reasoning and multimodal models performing well in cross-modal queries [9] Group 5: UBS Becomes Fully Foreign-Owned Broker - UBS Securities has transitioned from a joint venture to a fully foreign-owned broker, becoming the fifth foreign firm to achieve this status in China [12] - This change reflects China's gradual opening of its financial markets to foreign investment, allowing for greater participation from foreign financial institutions [12][13] - The move is seen as essential for aligning domestic financial markets with international standards and enhancing the role of foreign capital in China's economic development [13] Group 6: Banking Wealth Management Market - The banking wealth management market saw a reduction of over 800 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with the total scale at 29.14 trillion yuan [14] - The decline in wealth management scale is attributed to poor performance in the bond market, which negatively impacted product yields [14][15] - However, there are signs of recovery in April, with an increase in wealth management scale as market conditions improve [15] Group 7: Stock Market Performance - On April 30, the stock market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining stable while the Shenzhen Component Index rebounded [16] - The banking sector faced pressure following the release of Q1 earnings reports, contributing to a decline in bank stocks [17] - Market activity is influenced by expectations of potential interest rate cuts and the ongoing impact of U.S.-China trade tensions [17]