吴晓波频道

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美联储再次暂停降息,央行连续六个月增持黄金 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-09 00:36
Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the third consecutive pause in monetary policy decisions [1] - The statement highlighted increased uncertainty regarding economic prospects, with added risks of rising unemployment and inflation [1][2] - The Fed's passive approach to rate policy reflects challenges in predicting the current U.S. government's policy direction, complicating timely responses to economic data [2] Group 2: Gold Reserves and Currency Trends - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $32,817 billion, with a rise of $410 billion, maintaining above $3.2 trillion for 17 consecutive months [3] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months, reaching 7,377 million ounces [3] - The depreciation of the dollar and global economic uncertainties are driving the central bank's long-term motivation to increase gold holdings [3][4] Group 3: Infrastructure Investment and Private Sector Involvement - The Chinese government plans to launch approximately 3 trillion yuan in quality projects across key sectors, supporting private enterprises' participation [5] - The initiative aims to stimulate economic growth and enhance resilience by breaking down barriers for private companies in major project construction [5][6] - There is a need for improved mechanisms to support private sector financing to ensure their active involvement in large-scale projects [6] Group 4: E-commerce Collaboration - Xiaohongshu and Taobao Tmall signed a strategic cooperation agreement to create the "Red Cat Plan," allowing direct links from Xiaohongshu posts to Taobao for easier shopping [7][8] - This collaboration aims to enhance user experience and increase conversion rates from content to purchases, while also providing monetization opportunities for Xiaohongshu influencers [8] Group 5: Technological Developments in AI and Robotics - Apple is considering a major overhaul of its Safari browser to incorporate AI-driven search engines, potentially disrupting its long-standing partnership with Google [9][10] - Amazon introduced the Vulcan robot, which features tactile sensing capabilities to improve warehouse operations and enhance worker safety [11][12] - The rise of AI agents in payment systems by companies like PayPal, Mastercard, and Visa indicates a shift towards autonomous financial transactions, though user trust remains a significant barrier [13][14] Group 6: Stock Market Trends - The stock market experienced a low opening but rallied throughout the day, with the ChiNext index leading gains at 1.65% [15] - Market volatility continues with rapid rotation of sectoral interests, particularly in military and AI hardware stocks [15][16] - The contrasting policy goals between China and overseas markets may enhance the attractiveness of Chinese markets to foreign investors [16]
危地不去,乱地不往,企业出海要有底线思维
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-09 00:36
点击图片▲立即试听 编者按:5月8日是吴晓波频道11周岁的生日,我们准备了三场系列直播庆生,今 年的主题多少有些"专精"但尤其契合当下形势——"企业出海"。 在吴老师看来,这是一个特别严肃但又很迫切的话题,但我们试图做得更轻松更 容易理解一些。 5月6日的第一场,吴老师和有过丰富出海规划经验、带领小米团队深入100多个 国家和地区的前小米集团总裁王翔,以及 足迹遍布全球近50个国家和地区,曾担 任柳工海外事业部总经理的黄兆华老师一起,谈论了"企业出海五大坑"。 成功不可复制,失败或可避免,任何企业出海前,筹谋万千不如先看看如何避雷 避坑,在近3个小时的直播互动中,老师们聊了很多心得与经验,我们将之浓缩成 30句金句观点,抢鲜分享给大家~ 整理 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 66 中国企业经历了从短缺经济、进口替代到产 品出海,如今是企业出海,前期已积累了 5-6年 的时间,当前并不是中国企业出海的元年。 周年 大 线 吴晓波频道 吴晓波 HH > 高彩中心 66 中国企业出海前,有五个坑要了解:出海合 规坑、出海组织管理坑、出海品牌营销坑、出海供 应链坑、出海国别坑。 吴晓波频道||周年庆 cs) 吴 ...
“5.7重磅政策”:救市的逻辑变了
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-07 18:21
Core Viewpoint - The current market stabilization strategy focuses on "supporting enterprises," aiming for a systematic recovery treatment to stabilize the economic foundation, market entities, and enhance economic resilience [1][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Policy Announcements - The government announced ten major supportive policies, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), releasing 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds, and lowering the RRR for auto finance and financial leasing companies to 0% [1][2]. - Policy interest rates were reduced by 0.1%, and various structural tool rates were lowered by 0.25% [2]. Targeted Support for Key Areas - An increase of 300 billion yuan in re-loan quotas for technological innovation and technical transformation, along with 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care, and an additional 300 billion yuan for agriculture and small enterprises [3]. Market Reactions - Market sentiment was mixed; some viewed the policies as expected extensions of previous measures, while others were disappointed, hoping for more aggressive stimulus akin to the "9·24" policies from the previous year [4][6]. Economic Context - The primary economic contradiction has shifted from "insufficient domestic demand" to "increased external pressure," with small and foreign trade enterprises facing significant challenges [11][12]. - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in April, indicating a contraction, and there are concerns about the sustainability of recent foreign trade data [13][14]. Policy Objectives - The core task of the new policy measures is to stabilize the funding and confidence of enterprises, particularly small and private firms, amid external shocks [16][18]. - The policies aim to create a relaxed business environment, stabilize stock prices, and stimulate consumer spending to drive growth [18][25]. Specific Measures - The central bank's measures include a comprehensive RRR cut and interest rate reductions to ease financing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises [19][22]. - The optimization of capital market support tools aims to stabilize stock prices and enhance market confidence [23][24]. - Consumer confidence is targeted through measures like lowering the RRR for auto finance companies, which is expected to boost spending on durable goods [26]. Future Outlook - Despite the supportive policies, not all enterprises will benefit equally, and differentiation may become the new norm [30]. - The policies are seen as more supportive than stimulative, with a focus on preventing economic growth from "stalling" rather than driving immediate recovery [28][41]. - The real estate market may see benefits from increased liquidity, but the effectiveness of these measures will vary across different cities [42][43].
去西门子成都“双料”灯塔工厂:一个适用于中小制造企业的转型“样板间”
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-07 18:21
合抱之木,生于毫末。 对如今工业界而言,旧秩序正在关税阴影下遭受冲击,但新秩序正在酝酿激荡,只是当一部分人沉迷于清算过去时,更多人则渴望未来。 一个多月前,我们曾报道了第77届汉诺威工业博览会,并认为这是政治火药味儿最浓的一届汉诺威了,但我们同样欣慰地看到,不管是欧洲人、 加拿大人还是中国人,都想来展会上寻求合作和破解关税问题之策,因为这里,依然力图用技术对话超越政治壁垒。 早在17世纪,德国哲学家莱布尼茨便说:"中国人应当与欧洲人交换礼物,互相取长补短,用一盏明灯点燃另一盏明灯。" 他说:我们的相遇和交流意义重大,它会孕育千万美好成果、千万发明创造。 5月14日—5月15日,吴老师将带领企业家走进西门子位于成都的"双料"灯塔工厂,与西门子全球执行副总裁、西门子中国董事长肖松博士等嘉宾 进行一场深度对话。 点击图片▲立即了解 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 所谓双料,是指成都数字化工厂不仅是入选世界经济论坛第一批灯塔工厂,随后又获得了"可持续灯塔工厂"称号。 中德制造智慧与产业经验的碰撞虽不是新鲜事,但在当下却有着非凡的意义。 有兴趣的话,可以点击按钮,加入这场"与未来的对话"。 点击按钮 ▼立即报 ...
中美将举行经贸高层会谈,央行宣布降息降准 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-07 18:21
Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5%, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity into the market [1] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1%, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - A structural monetary policy tool rate was reduced by 0.25%, and the personal housing provident fund loan rate was also cut by 0.25% [1] - The central bank will establish a 500 billion yuan re-lending facility to support consumption and elderly care, and increase the re-lending quota for technological innovation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [1][2] Trade Relations - High-level economic talks between China and the U.S. are scheduled in Switzerland, with discussions expected to focus on tariff adjustments and trade relations [3] - The U.S. has shown interest in negotiating tariff measures, which could ease trade tensions and provide a buffer for the global economy [4] Fund Management - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released an action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, including linking management fees to fund performance [5] - The plan aims to improve the reputation of the public fund industry and accelerate the exit of underperforming funds, enhancing overall profitability [6] Logistics Industry - China's logistics industry prosperity index for April was reported at 51.1%, indicating continued expansion despite a slight month-over-month decline [7] - The index reflects a mixed performance across regions, with the western region showing significant recovery while the eastern and central regions experienced a slowdown [8] Mobile Gaming Market - In April, 33 Chinese companies entered the global mobile game revenue top 100, collectively generating $2 billion, accounting for 38.4% of the market [9] - Tencent's flagship game "Honor of Kings" saw a 71% revenue increase, reclaiming the top position in global mobile game revenue [10] Skechers Acquisition - Skechers announced an agreement to be acquired by 3G Capital for approximately $9.4 billion, with the deal expected to close in the third quarter [11] - The acquisition may provide financial support to Skechers amid declining sales in China and rising costs due to trade policies [12] Currency and Trade Dynamics - A potential "avalanche" sell-off of up to $2.5 trillion in U.S. dollars is anticipated as Asian countries reduce their dollar reserves amid escalating trade tensions [13] - The shift in currency dynamics may lead to significant changes in global trade relationships and impact the demand for U.S. dollars [14]
今晚19:00,吴晓波X马旭飞X杨鸥,企业出海选哪里好?
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-07 18:21
点击按钮▲ 预约直播 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 出海,在路上。 昨日凌晨,当东八区还在睡梦中,官方忽然宣布,中美即将在瑞士实现破冰对话。 历经一月的关税大战,终于有了一些新眉目。 好消息也不止一个,昨日上午9点, 国新办金融发布会"赶早也赶巧"地为内部经济输入新弹 药,尤其针对关税战下的中国外贸企业,提出了针对性的"托举"。 如: 推动银行加快落实各项稳外贸政策,确保应贷尽贷应续尽续;如对受关税影响较大,经营 暂时困难的市场主体,一企一策提供精准服务,如 强化外贸企业出口转内销的融资保障等等。 不过,在吴老师看来,尽管从国家部委到沿海各省市政府,都在积极为外贸企业出谋划策,但 是这些办法如何落到每一个具体的企业,仍然是一个未知数。 因此,外贸转内销仍只是短期的应急之策,而企业出海势将成为一项长期规划。 在他看来: 企业出海,是一次需要进行系统性思考的二次创业,在某种意义上,它的难度甚至 不低于企业家们第一次创业。 企业家们首先要面临以下五大课题:第一,出海的企业管理;第二,品牌营销;第 三,供应链;第四,国别选择;第五,合规性。 本场直播,吴老师将继续对话相关资深专家,探讨 地缘棋局中的落子艺 ...
今晚19:00,吴晓波x林雪萍x徐赫:供应链大迁徙,谁会被踢出全球棋局?
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-06 16:53
文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 2021年2月,美国德克萨斯州一场百年一遇的暴风雪,让全球汽车产业陷入瘫痪。当地三家关 键芯片工厂因停电停工,直接导致远在德国的大众汽车生产线被迫按下暂停键,日本丰田减产 40%。 点击按钮▲ 预约直播 这场"蝴蝶效应"的背后,是高度精密却也极度脆弱的全球供应链网络——一颗芯片的缺席,足 以让价值千亿的产业停摆。 而今天,供应链的震荡已超越偶然的天灾。地缘政治博弈、能源危机、AI技术革命、ESG浪 潮……多重变量交织下,供应链从"效率优先"的精密齿轮,演变为"安全与韧性"为核心的战略 棋盘。 麦肯锡数据显示,全球92%的企业正在重构供应链布局,"中国+1""近岸外包""数字孪生"成为 高频关键词。 当"全球化"与"逆全球化"两股力量激烈碰撞,供应链的生死局,实则是国家竞争力与企业生存 权的终极较量。 5月7日19:00将迎来 吴晓波频道十一周年纪念活动系列直播的第二场, "企业出海·供应链生死 局" 专场。 吴老师邀请了 上海交大质量发展研究院客座研究员林雪萍 ,以及 联想集团全球供应链转型 官、联晟智达CEO徐赫 来直播间做客。 林雪萍作为全球产业观察者,20多年专 ...
前4个月地方债发行增长84%,上海多个楼盘触发限售 | 财经日日评
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-06 16:53
点击按钮 ▲立即预约 中国财新服务业PMI降至50.7 |点评| 凭借区位优势与雄厚的经济基础,长三角地区长期都是国内经济最为发达的区域之一。其中的万亿GDP城市,更是以产业建设形成了 强大的集群效应。近年来在"新三样"产业取得显著突破的合肥,就是一个典型。新兴产业崛起,一季度其出口与GDP增速均实现了较高增长。 同时,产业发展还提升了合肥的人才吸引力,进一步增强其城市竞争力。 |点评| 财新PMI比官方PMI表现略好,但二者在4月都出现了不小的回落。美国加征关税是影响国内PMI数据的最大扰动项,制造业产需两端 同时走弱,部分对美出口占比较高的工厂陷入停工状态。国际贸易风波给国内经济带来的不确定性影响到了居民支出意愿,拖累了服务业表 现,各地方政府针对景点、酒店等旅游费用上的补贴平滑了服务业PMI回落速率。超长期特别国债加速下发,基建项目提速,全国房地产行业修 复速度偏慢,建筑行业仍有待提振。 美国关税政策不光对中国产生负面影响,为全球经济的正常运行都带来了扰动,美国与多国的贸易谈判均不顺利,全球贸易体系或将因此开始 进行缓慢的重塑。 长三角9座"万亿城市"一季报出炉 5月6日消息,长三角9座"GDP万亿城市 ...
吴晓波:出海,在路上
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-06 16:53
点击按钮▲立即预约 " 5 月 8 日是吴晓波频道的创办日,感谢所有在过去的 11 年里陪伴我们一起成长和学习的同学们。每年这个时候,我们都会举办一个系列直播。今年的主题是企业出 海。 " 文 / 吴晓波(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 六月的早晨八点,城市的马路上挤满了密密麻麻的本田摩托车。 旁边紧挨着的是宽敞明亮的名创优品连锁店。马路的尽头,巨大红字的比亚迪海报上写着"WE ARE NO.1"。 这一幅生动的街景,是越南胡志明市的清晨。事实上,在今天的东南亚很多国家,都可以目睹类似的场景。 胡志明市富洞六路十字路口 2023年6月,我去印尼调研,当地朋友组织 了 一些创业者与我座谈。刚刚坐下来,一个人就悄悄把一杯咖啡递到我手里,他学瑞幸模式,在短短 一年时间里开了 200多家连锁店。一位做化妆品的创业者上台介绍他的公司,在PPT的最后一页,他写了四个字: "生而全球"。 我当时身躯一震。他是替一代出海人喊出了时代的宣言。 去年是我的最后一场 "吴晓波年终秀",我将这四个字定为中场演讲的主题,在我看来,"生而全球"浪潮与人工智能革命,是这一代中国创业者最 为重要的两个百年机遇。 一个年轻人的车后座,斜绑着一台AQ ...
5月6日—5月8日,“出海,在路上”吴晓波频道11周年系列直播正式开启
吴晓波频道· 2025-05-05 16:41
点击按钮▲ 预约直播 文 / 巴九灵(微信公众号:吴晓波频道) 当2025年特朗普政府的关税壁垒如飓风般席卷全球产业链,订单锐减与成本激增的阴霾下,中 国企业的出海征途却显露出别样韧性——这场看似突如其来的危机,实则是中国制造全球化基 因觉醒后的又一次淬炼。 从海尔在欧美供应链的20年深耕,到万向集团横跨12国的汽车零部件帝国,这些穿越周期的商 业叙事,绝非危机倒逼的权宜之计,而是民族工业融入世界脉搏的战略觉醒。 正如吴老师在2024首届出海全球峰会所言:"留给中国企业的出海窗口期仅剩5—10年",但历 史告诉我们,真正的全球化布局需要以十年为单位丈量。 5月8日,是吴晓波频道11岁的生日,在11周年庆之际,我们策划了主题为"出海,在路上"系列 直播活动。 吴老师将和六位实战派出海领航者展开深度对话。 三场直播的主题分别是: 工对波兰HSW集团工程机械事业部的收购及并购后的整合管理,足迹遍布全球近50个国家和地 区。 林雪萍:全球产业观察家、上海交通大学中国质量发展研究院客座研究员。 过去3年,林雪萍 调研国内外100多家工厂,访谈了200多位海外亲历者,并前往德国、匈牙利、泰国、越南、墨 西哥等不同地区国家 ...