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反直觉的能源:富足的尽头是稀缺
虎嗅APP· 2026-01-24 14:19
以下文章来源于肖小跑 ,作者肖小跑 肖小跑 . 金融世界不讲道理的时候,向文史哲求救,大概率"叮"的一下就扣上了。因为在这里,您才能再次看 到"人":人的情绪,人的荒诞,人的大举动小动作。这里有世界最本质的规律。 本文来自微信公众号: 肖小跑 ,作者:肖小跑 最近在写关于能源和电力的报告,恶补了很多东西。 看来要补的课确实很多,越补越觉得这是一个很反常识的领域,充满了反直觉的悖论。没想到在能源 行业,这个充满着自然规律的物理世界,人性也会起到作用? 这也是为什么经济学不会消失,它永远在潜移默化中起作用。Long Live Economics。 下面是我的几个反直觉笔记: 01 一个被喊了一百多年的"狼来了"故事:为什么旧能源看不到尽头? "Peak oil"(石油峰值)这个词,大家可能都听过。意思是石油需求或产量会在某一年达到顶峰,然 后开始走下坡路。 问题是,这个"顶峰"已经被预测了无数次,每次都往后推。 那么问题来了:如果新能源是未来,为什么化石燃料的生命周期却一直在延长? 因为人性和博弈。或者更具体一点:PTSD。 早在1880年代,就有美国专家预言宾夕法尼亚油田枯竭后,美国石油工业就完了。1956年, ...
有意思周报|美国一名艺术系学生因对AI不满,当场吃掉另一位学生的艺术作品;自杀舱发明者想推出加载AI的情侣专供版
虎嗅APP· 2026-01-24 12:00
以下文章来源于那个NG ,作者那个NG 还有,21岁男孩见义勇为不幸身亡,母亲多年来一直试图用他的DNA再生一个"他" 那个NG: 阿拉斯加一名艺术系学生因对AI不满,当场吃掉另一位学生的艺术作品 气得想把对方生吞活剥了可能不只是一个形容词。 据阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯分校学生报《太阳星报》报道,该校电影与表演艺术专业的学生格雷厄姆·格兰杰(Graham Granger)在看到艺术硕士研究生尼 克·德怀尔(Nick Dwyer)创作的AI艺术作品之后暴怒,随即选择当场吃掉它们以表不满。 据《今日心理学》报道,格兰杰声称他愤怒只是因为它们是用AI生成的。但AI其实是创作者德怀尔的艺术主题之一。他表示,自己的作品"在探索身份认同、 人物叙事创作以及在人工智能精神病发作前、发作中和发作后,通过数字互动角色构建虚假的人际关系记忆"。 根据拍摄的照片来看,这件艺术作品由钉在墙上的小型宝丽来风格照片组成。警方估计160张照片中至少有57张被毁,尚不清楚有多少张进了格兰杰的肚 子。 那个NG . 用关注决定视界|复杂世界的策展人 根据阿拉斯加州法院系统的信息,格兰杰于周三被控犯有刑事恶作剧罪,造成的损失低于250美元,属于B ...
术后疼痛难题,以岭给了新解法
虎嗅APP· 2026-01-24 09:43
手术后的第一个夜晚,你躺在床上辗转难眠。伤口传来的阵阵剧痛让你浑身紧绷,哪怕是轻微的翻身 都像在承受酷刑,你想好好休息恢复体力,却被疼痛牢牢困住。 这是无数手术患者都曾经历过的困境。 据国家统计局数据,2024年我国医疗卫生机构入院患者3.12亿人,手术人次1.04亿次,相较于2023 年同比增长8%。但其中近七成都会面临中重度的术后疼痛。如何在保障安全的前提下,让患者获得 合理镇痛,一直都是无数医生反复探索的方向。 1月22日,以岭药业(后文称"以岭")自主研发的化药专利新药苯胺洛芬注射液(后文称"苯胺洛 芬")正式上市, 这是一款精准击中临床"痛"点的非阿片类镇痛新药,主要用于腹部开放与腹腔镜手 术以及胸腔镜手术的术后镇痛。在中药行业化药相对稀缺的当下,显得格外有分量。 化药专利新药锋芒显露 随着苯胺洛芬的上市,以岭再次被带入到公众的视野中。 这几年中药行业的创新风向在变——审评端越来越看重临床硬证据,单靠中药传统优势难再满足市场 需求,不少企业开始试着布局化药、生物药,想做"中药+化生药"双主业。但真正能靠自己研发出化 学新药并获批的,并不多。 长期以来,大多中药企业的核心精力多聚焦于经典名方改良、特色 ...
苹果进入双寡头时代
虎嗅APP· 2026-01-24 09:43
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition of leadership at Apple as Tim Cook approaches retirement, highlighting the potential successors John Ternus and Craig Federighi, marking the end of the post-Jobs era and the beginning of a new "duopoly" leadership structure at Apple [4][24]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - Tim Cook, aged 65, is facing questions about succession as Apple undergoes significant management restructuring following the departures and retirements of several executives [4]. - John Ternus and Craig Federighi are identified as key figures in Cook's succession plan, with Ternus being positioned as a potential CEO due to his youth and extensive experience in hardware engineering [12][25]. Group 2: Design Department Changes - The design department at Apple has undergone significant changes since the departure of former Chief Design Officer Jony Ive in 2019, leading to a fragmented structure with responsibilities split between Evans Hankey and Alan Dye [6][9]. - Ternus was appointed as the "Executive Sponsor" for design, allowing him to bridge the gap between designers and executives, although he does not directly oversee design [10][11]. Group 3: Federighi's Role in AI - Craig Federighi, now overseeing Apple's AI department, has shifted from being an AI skeptic to actively integrating AI technologies into Apple's products, particularly following the emergence of ChatGPT [17][19]. - Under Federighi's leadership, Apple has faced challenges in AI development, leading to the decision to collaborate with Google for AI capabilities, indicating a pragmatic approach to technology integration [20][26]. Group 4: Philosophical Differences in Management - Ternus represents a shift towards a product-driven, engineering-first approach at Apple, moving away from the design-centric philosophy of the past [13][26]. - Federighi's management style emphasizes cost control and practicality, which may lead to a more stable financial performance for Apple, albeit with less revolutionary innovation [22][26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The combination of Ternus and Federighi as co-leaders may signify a new era for Apple, focusing on operational efficiency and practical product development rather than groundbreaking design [26][27]. - The transition is seen as a response to the evolving tech landscape, with Apple aiming to maintain relevance without overextending financially [22][26].
热闹的酒店年会,今年悄悄消失了
虎嗅APP· 2026-01-24 09:43
以下文章来源于劲旅网 ,作者陈杰tigereat 劲旅网 . 劲旅网-文旅新经济增量价值发现平台。我们以理性、严谨、客观、专业、务实的视角,为中国文旅业 界和关注文旅产业的金融界、科技界、产业界、学界等领域的精英们,实时输出有深度、有态度、高品 质的原创内容,以及产业社群服务。 本文来自微信公众号: 劲旅网 ,作者:陈杰,编辑:壮壮,头图来自:AI生成 一 "今年我们酒店接到的企业年会订单量惨不忍睹。" 华北某市从事高星酒店销售业务的A君这两天忍不住向劲旅君吐槽,往年这个时候整个团队都为企业 年会订单忙得不可开交,今年却一反常态。 不仅年会订单数量暴跌,价格也持续走低。 往年企业年会餐标价格至少1500元/桌,今年1000元/桌还是强凑出来的。 更有甚者,一些小企业客户就带着十来个员工在酒店吃顿饭权当年会了,没有工作总结,没有颁奖抽 奖,大家埋头吃饭,完事就撤,一点热闹气氛都没有。 在社交媒体上,"今年年会消失了?"的帖子不绝于耳,大家都在私下询问别家企业年会到底还办不 办? 在一项名为"今年你们公司还有年会吗?"的投票,超过5000人的投票结果中,75%的人都投向"公司 没有年会"。 更多的人则是在各种帖子 ...
对话喻国明:“AI擦边的核心,是商业模式对人性弱点的过度榨取”
虎嗅APP· 2026-01-24 03:19
以下文章来源于未来图灵 ,作者张凤静 未来图灵 . 研究数据显示,Grok的用户群体平均每小时生成6700多张"脱衣"图像。而数字情报公司Peryton Intelligence的数据显示,仅在2026年1月2日当天,Grok就收到了199,612个独立的脱衣请求。面对 汹涌的舆论压力,X平台于1月9日宣布,图像生成功能仅对付费用户开放,并于1月15日正式发布安 全声明,禁止为真实人物生成暴露服装(如比基尼)的图片。 面对这一复杂难题,我们专访了北京师范大学新闻传播学院喻国明教授。身为北京师范大学新闻传播 学院学术委员会主任、教育部长江学者特聘教授,喻国明长期深耕技术、社会与人性的关系领域,凭 借其开创的"认知神经传播学"以及"社会安全阀""舆论代偿机制"等理论蜚声学界。他的剖析始终跳出 二元对立的桎梏,力求探寻兼具现实观照与建设性价值的平衡之道。 在本次访谈中,他开宗明义地指出,讨论的前提是必须严格区分"公共空间"与"私人空间",成年人在 私域内的合理消费应受保护。但这绝非为技术滥用开脱。他犀利地指出"技术非绝对中立",并提出了 清晰的"责罚相称"责任划分原则:有意为之的开发者应负主责。面对全球"监管碎片化 ...
招行“变招”,出人意料
虎嗅APP· 2026-01-24 03:19
出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 刘国辉 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | AI生图 新年伊始,作为招行的重要业务线之一,招行财富管理业务出现重要的人事调整,财富平台部总经理厉明东,将接任信用卡中心总经理。信用卡 中心原总经理刘加隆即将退休。总行零售金融总部总经理陆小荣,将兼任财富平台部总经理。 有意思的是,接管信用卡业务的厉明东,长期执掌财富管理业务。而即将担纲财富管理业务的陆小荣,出身并长期任职于信用卡中心。这一来一 去之间,有培养干部丰富履历的考虑,也有对于财富管理和信用卡业务协同的考量。 这形成了"双向奔赴",厉明东从财富平台部调到信用卡中心,陆小荣则是长期任职于信用卡中心,在零售金融总部这个偏中后台支持的部门历练 后,走到了财富平台部这个前台业务部门。 而对于财富管理行业来说,不管是基金销售还是保险销售,招行都是非常重要的渠道。厉明东的调离,缺乏财富管理业务经验的陆小荣上任,对 于招行财富管理业务,会有怎样的影响? 两大今昔明星业务之间的人事换防 厉明东早年在招行南京分行、深圳分行担任高管,2020年初担任总行财富管理部总经理,负责财富产品体系搭建、客户分层运营等,2021年 初,提出深耕大财富管理价值循环链 ...
2026美国生存指南:穿丑衣,闭紧嘴
虎嗅APP· 2026-01-24 03:19
那个NG . 以下文章来源于那个NG ,作者阿珂可 用关注决定视界|复杂世界的策展人 出品 | 虎嗅青年文化组 作者 | 阿珂可 编辑、题图 | 渣渣郡 本文首发于虎嗅年轻内容公众号"那個NG"(ID:huxiu4youth)。在这里,我们呈现当下年轻人的面貌、故事 和态度。 要是未来短视频平台出了R18专区,一定是因为2026年的ICE执法视频太恐怖了。 在海的这边,看客们都把它们当成了新一代电子榨菜。混合政治和暴力的街头实况,简直是最完美的下饭瓜 条。 而在美利坚的刺激战场里,人们躲、跑、藏、打,为了逃避ICE的追杀大显神通。 要是现在向他们其中一位请教性价比最高的自保方式,他会这样说:反抗,不如把自己穿得丑一点。 要论哪个国家最缺乏时尚感,美国一定稳居黑榜的前几名。本地人穿衣之土,已经演变成一则让全世界都心照 不宣的地狱笑话。 在《摩登家庭》里就有这么一幕。米奇一句"咱俩穿得都一样"直接把法国路人搞破防:你没有理由攻击我。 可现在比美国时尚更地狱的是,有的移民为了不被ICE枪击,开始把自己往丑里捯饬了。 这事还得从美国最近的混乱形势开始讲起。 ICE是 U.S. Immigration and Cust ...
AI会让人变蠢吗?
虎嗅APP· 2026-01-23 13:53
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of AI on human intelligence and the importance of maintaining independent deep thinking models in the face of AI advancements [7][10][28]. Group 1: AI and Human Intelligence - The debate in the media and communication circles is divided between those who favor traditional methods ("hand-made") and those who embrace AI [7]. - Economists argue that AI may lead to the production of standardized and mediocre individuals, as AI can replace what it teaches [7][9]. - The author emphasizes that the training process of thinking models in the human brain is crucial, and the rise of short video consumption has already altered these models [8][9]. Group 2: Importance of Independent Thinking - Establishing an independent deep thinking model is essential for individuals, especially in fields like media and public relations [11][12]. - The article suggests that the ability to think deeply and independently is a key differentiator among individuals [13]. - The author highlights that while AI can assist in learning, the practice ("habit") must still rely on individual effort [13][14]. Group 3: AI Usage in Core Fields - It is advised to minimize AI usage in one's main area of expertise to ensure the development of independent thinking [15][16]. - The article notes that excessive reliance on AI for writing and creativity can lead to a decline in cognitive abilities [17][19]. - The author argues that the process of physically creating and expressing thoughts is a vital cognitive training exercise that should not be undermined by AI [19]. Group 4: Cultural and Historical Context - The article stresses the importance of preserving the legacy of human civilization and warns against the dangers of fragmented information consumption [21][22]. - It discusses the potential negative effects of AI on societal values and the need for human oversight in the information dissemination process [26][27]. - The author concludes that the choice of whether AI makes humanity smarter or dumber lies in human hands, emphasizing the need for a human "editor" to guide AI's role [28].
探店北京区域“胖改”店
虎嗅APP· 2026-01-23 13:53
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of traditional supermarkets in Beijing, particularly focusing on the "胖改" (Fat Reform) initiative, which aims to enhance the shopping experience but has led to mixed consumer responses regarding pricing and product availability [5][25]. Group 1: Consumer Experience - Consumers have reported a decline in foot traffic and interest in supermarkets post-reform, with many expressing dissatisfaction over increased prices and a lack of everyday products [6][7][25]. - The transformation has made stores appear cleaner and more organized, but this has not translated into higher customer satisfaction, especially among price-sensitive shoppers [6][9][25]. - Observations indicate that during peak shopping times, such as holidays, the customer turnout has significantly decreased compared to pre-reform levels [7][19]. Group 2: Pricing and Competition - The article highlights that the average prices of products in reformed stores have increased, which has alienated budget-conscious consumers [26][28]. - Comparisons with e-commerce platforms reveal that many products are available at significantly lower prices online, leading consumers to prefer online shopping over physical stores [12][30]. - The competition from membership-based stores like Sam's Club is intensifying, putting additional pressure on traditional supermarkets to justify their pricing strategies [26][28]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - The reform has led to increased operational costs, particularly in labor, as stores have expanded their workforce and raised employee salaries significantly [29][30]. - Despite some positive metrics, such as increased sales and customer return rates, the long-term sustainability of these reforms remains uncertain due to rising costs and the challenge of maintaining service quality across different locations [28][30]. - The article emphasizes the need for traditional supermarkets to balance quality and pricing while navigating the complexities of supply chain management and organizational culture [30][31].