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早报 | 2026年“国补”政策来了;个人销售购买2年以上住房免征增值税;特斯拉官网罕见发布悲观交付量预期;李蓓卖课遭遇连环怼
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-31 00:24
Group 1 - The Chinese government will implement a new subsidy policy for equipment updates and consumer goods replacement starting in 2026, optimizing support areas and subsidy standards [2] - The subsidy for updating old elevators will be adjusted to a tiered system based on the number of floors, while the car replacement subsidy will be based on a percentage of the car price [2] - The policy aims to support small and medium-sized enterprises and improve the application process to reduce investment thresholds [2] Group 2 - SoftBank has completed a $40 billion investment commitment to OpenAI, marking one of the largest private financings in history [3] - This investment aligns with SoftBank's strategy to focus on AI and related infrastructure, following the sale of its Nvidia shares for $5.8 billion [3] - After this round of investment, SoftBank's ownership in OpenAI exceeds 10% [3] Group 3 - Elon Musk confirmed that xAI has acquired a third building, increasing its AI training computing power to nearly 2 gigawatts [4] - The new facility is located in Southaven, Mississippi, adjacent to xAI's second data center, Colossus 2 [5] - xAI is actively seeking financing to support its expansion plans, having previously discussed raising $20 billion in debt and equity [5] Group 4 - Warner Bros. plans to reject Paramount's acquisition proposal again, as the board is concerned about the lack of increased offers [6] - Paramount's latest offer includes a commitment from billionaire Larry Ellison to guarantee $40.4 billion in equity financing [6] - The board will meet next week to discuss the proposal further [6] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding future interest rate cuts, with some officials supporting a 50 basis point cut [7] - The Fed lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% to 3.75%, with a vote of 9-3, marking the highest dissent since 2019 [7] - Some officials expressed uncertainty about the need for further cuts due to missing key economic data from a government shutdown [7] Group 6 - A new tax policy will exempt individuals from value-added tax (VAT) when selling homes purchased for over two years, effective January 1, 2026 [8][9] - Homes sold within two years will incur a 3% VAT [8] Group 7 - Tesla's website has published a pessimistic delivery forecast, predicting a 15% year-over-year decline in Q4 deliveries, totaling approximately 422,850 vehicles [10] - This decline is attributed to the expiration of U.S. tax credits and increasing global competition [10] - Tesla's total deliveries for 2025 are expected to be between 1.6 million and 1.65 million, marking an 8% year-over-year decrease [10] Group 8 - Disney has agreed to pay a $10 million civil penalty to settle allegations of violating the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act related to YouTube content [11] - The allegations state that Disney failed to properly indicate that its YouTube videos were directed at children, leading to unauthorized data collection [11] Group 9 - Ganfeng Lithium has been sent for prosecution due to alleged insider trading, with the company stating that its operations remain normal and the issue is historical [12][13] - Following the announcement, Ganfeng's stock fell by 3.78% in A-shares and 2.74% in Hong Kong shares [13] Group 10 - The first oral insulin application by Tianhui Biotech was not approved, with the company stating that the withdrawal was a strategic decision [23][24] Group 11 - The new generation of digital RMB system will officially launch on January 1, 2026, as announced by the People's Bank of China [30] Group 12 - Xiaopeng Motors' chairman, He Xiaopeng, predicts that true fully autonomous driving will arrive in 2026, skipping L3 and moving directly from L2 to L4 [32]
Manus上岸了,其他人呢?
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-31 00:24
Core Insights - The article emphasizes that 2026 is poised to be a year of explosive growth in AI applications, driven by recent significant events such as the acquisition of Manus by Meta for several billion dollars, which serves as a catalyst for Chinese entrepreneurs to consider collaboration and international expansion [4][10][13]. Group 1: Trends in AI Entrepreneurship - Trend 1: Overseas markets are becoming the primary birthplace for successful AI applications, with notable examples like Manus achieving an ARR of over $100 million shortly after its launch [10][12][14]. - Trend 2: Collaboration among AI startups is emerging as a vital strategy for survival, contrasting with the competitive acquisition landscape in Silicon Valley. Domestic companies are focusing on partnerships rather than outright acquisitions [16][19]. - Trend 3: Growth strategies are increasingly important, with investors expecting startups to demonstrate rapid scaling and market traction within short timeframes [20][22]. Group 2: Shifts in Business Metrics - Trend 4: The significance of ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is diminishing, as the focus shifts to the ability of AI applications to convert token consumption into actual revenue, highlighting the importance of profitability and user retention [25][27][31]. - Trend 5: Traditional industries are undergoing transformation through "AI-native" solutions, with startups leveraging AI to address long-standing inefficiencies and create new business models [32][39][41].
“不被期待”的普通人
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-30 13:20
以下文章来源于刘知趣 ,作者刘知趣 刘知趣 . 虎嗅、澎湃新闻认证作者,十年互联网市场搬砖女工。曾任职于百度、知乎,现关注新青年一代如何更好地生活。 本文来自微信公众号: 刘知趣 ,作者:刘知趣,原文标题:《"不被期待"的我们》,题图来自:视觉中国 在贾樟柯的纪录片《一直游到海水变蓝》中,作家梁鸿回到河南老家,讲述了她父亲梁光正的一生。他一生务农,性格执拗又热心,从未离开过村子,也 从未被写进过任何"时代故事"。镜头前,他搓着手,略显局促地表示自己"就是个普通人,没啥可讲的"。 这种"被忽视"的状态,会随着升学一路延续。教育部《2023年全国教育事业发展统计公报》显示,当年全国普通本科招生478.16万人,而147所"双一 流"高校的本科招生总规模仅约为70万人,占比不过14.6%。这意味着,超过八成的本科生都就读于普通双非院校。在这样庞大的群体里,能被视作"社会 栋梁""家族希望"的,寥寥无几。 但越到中年越意识到,"不被期待"未必是件坏事。 社会学家项飙曾经在《十三邀》中谈及: 当一个人从小被寄予厚望,他的生活就很容易变成一场持续的表演,必须不断证明自己"值得"那份期待。 这个 洞察,道出了高期待背后的沉 ...
谁说有钱人不爱买新能源?
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-30 13:20
Core Viewpoint - The ultra-luxury car market is experiencing a redefinition of "luxury," driven by the changing consumption logic of high-net-worth individuals, with the ZunJie S800 achieving remarkable sales against a backdrop of declining traditional luxury brand sales [2][4]. Market Performance - The ZunJie S800 has achieved over 18,000 pre-orders within 175 days of its launch, with monthly deliveries stabilizing at over 2,000 units, contrasting with a general decline of around 30% in traditional ultra-luxury brand sales [2][4]. - The ZunJie S800 reached a milestone of 10,000 cumulative deliveries in just over 200 days, significantly faster than the typical 18-24 month period for traditional luxury cars [2][4]. Consumer Preferences - High-net-worth individuals are increasingly shifting towards domestic brands, with 42% of luxury car owners opting for Chinese brands, reflecting a significant change in market dynamics [5]. - A survey indicates that 87% of high-net-worth individuals prioritize advanced driving technology and smart cockpit features when purchasing vehicles, with 62% willing to pay a premium of 100,000 to 300,000 yuan for leading-edge technology [8]. Concerns and Preferences in New Energy Vehicles - Despite the demand for advanced technology, there are significant concerns regarding the core shortcomings of new energy vehicles, particularly regarding battery safety and efficiency [9]. - In the high-end new energy market, pure electric vehicles account for only 9% of sales, with a preference for range-extended and plug-in hybrid models, indicating a cautious approach towards fully electric options [9]. Technological Innovations - The ZunJie S800 leverages the Huawei Whale Battery Platform, which addresses safety concerns through advanced thermal management and structural integrity, achieving a battery health rate of 97% after 100,000 kilometers [11][12]. - The platform incorporates a unique thermal management system that actively prevents thermal runaway, enhancing safety beyond traditional passive measures [11][12]. Quality Control and Lifecycle Management - The Whale Battery Platform employs rigorous quality control measures, including 100% X-ray inspection of battery cells, ensuring high standards of safety and reliability [13][20]. - The platform redefines battery ownership by treating battery health as a serviceable asset throughout its lifecycle, allowing for shared maintenance responsibilities between manufacturers and users [18]. Market Implications - The technological advancements of the ZunJie S800 not only redefine consumer expectations in the ultra-luxury segment but also provide a competitive edge for Chinese brands in the high-end automotive market [20][24]. - The ZunJie S800 represents a shift in the automotive industry, moving from traditional supply-demand models to a more integrated approach that emphasizes quality standards and technological innovation [26].
海南封关后,中产和资本抢着南下淘金
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-30 13:20
政策红利打开低价购金窗口,一场千里淘金盛宴正在海南上演。 出品|虎嗅商业消费组 作者|柳柳 编辑|苗正卿 题图|AI生成 12月18日海南自贸港正式启动全岛封关,到今天已超过10天,多项相关政策,相继实现了首批业务落地。 海口海关数据显示,封关首周,海南新增外资备案企业1972家,同比增长2.3倍。 封关后,海南将以"零关税、低税率、简税制"为重点核心政策。政策指出,"零关税"政策主要包括:"一 线"(国境线)全面放开:除极少数例外(如危害国家安全、生态环境等特殊物品),绝大多数境外货物进 入海南自贸港时,免征进口关税、进口环节增值税和消费税; "二线"(海南与内地之间)有限监管:海南与内地之间的货物流动视为"进口",需按规定补税,但对岛内 企业生产的货物加工增值超过30%(含)进入内地时,免征进口关税(已在洋浦保税港区试点,封关后推 广至全岛);特定清单"零关税"则全覆盖。 一个重要变化在于,"零关税"商品税目比例从封关前的约21%大幅跃升至74%。企业进口自用的生产设备、 运营所需的交通工具、原辅料,基本全部免征进口关税、增值税和消费税。个人购物享受的免税额度也提 升至每人每年10万元。 对于普通消费者来 ...
年入千万美元的独角兽,竟靠创始人假扮AI接活起步
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-30 13:20
Core Insights - The article discusses the success story of Fireflies.ai, an AI meeting assistant that has achieved significant growth and profitability through innovative strategies and a unique approach to product development [4][5][9]. Company Overview - Fireflies.ai operates in the AI meeting assistant niche, providing services such as automatic meeting recording, transcription, summarization, and search capabilities, capitalizing on the remote work trend and advancements in large models [6][9]. - The company has grown rapidly, reaching a valuation of over $1 billion by mid-2025, serving over 20 million users, and covering approximately 75% of the Fortune 500 companies [8][9]. Unique Business Model - Unlike many startups that rely heavily on external funding, Fireflies.ai has maintained profitability since 2023 and has not conducted a primary funding round since 2021, relying on organic business growth [9][10]. - The annual revenue of Fireflies.ai increased from $4.2 million in 2021 to approximately $10.9 million in 2024, maintaining an impressive annual growth rate of about 88% [9]. Founders' Journey - The founders, Krish Ramineni and Sam Udotong, initially faced numerous challenges and failures before discovering the market need for a meeting note-taking solution [11][14]. - They employed a controversial strategy of manually simulating AI capabilities to validate product-market fit before developing the actual automated product, which ultimately led to their success [15][20]. Product Differentiation - Fireflies.ai distinguishes itself by not only transcribing meetings but also transforming spoken content into valuable data assets that can be reused and analyzed [23][24]. - The platform integrates various functionalities, including AI agents, to create a comprehensive knowledge base that enhances organizational efficiency [25][26]. Technological Infrastructure - The company employs a hybrid ASR (Automatic Speech Recognition) approach, utilizing different technologies for real-time and post-meeting transcription to balance cost, speed, and accuracy [36][37]. - Fireflies.ai's AskFred feature allows users to interact with the platform in a conversational manner, enhancing the user experience by providing context-aware responses [38][39]. Market Landscape - The AI meeting assistant market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of approximately $3.2 billion by 2025 and a CAGR of 25%-35% over the next decade [45]. - However, the market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Microsoft, Google, and Zoom integrating similar functionalities into their existing platforms, posing a threat to independent solutions like Fireflies.ai [46][48]. Competitive Challenges - Fireflies.ai faces stiff competition from other startups like Otter.ai, which has a larger user base and revenue, highlighting the need for Fireflies to continuously innovate and prove its unique value proposition [49][50]. - The rapid commoditization of transcription and summarization technologies necessitates that Fireflies.ai demonstrates its distinct advantages in areas such as deep integration and advanced AI capabilities to maintain its market position [51].
海澜和阿迪,为什么越抱越紧了?
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-30 09:21
Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between HLA (海澜之家) and adidas marks a significant shift in their business strategies, moving from traditional sales channels to a deeper partnership that emphasizes brand co-creation and a shared vision for a "Sports+" ecosystem [2][14]. Group 1: Partnership Development - HLA and adidas have a history of collaboration dating back to 2022, when HLA's subsidiary established a brand called Sibozi, which became a channel partner for adidas in lower-tier cities [5][6]. - In 2024, HLA gained control of Sibozi and transitioned their partnership with adidas from simple sales to joint operations, indicating a deeper integration of their business models [6][9]. - The launch of the adidas FCC (Future City Concept) stores represents a key strategic initiative, with HLA managing store operations and adidas providing exclusive product lines aimed at affordability and mass appeal [7][9]. Group 2: Market Insights and Trends - The partnership is a response to the "Marathon Cycle," a term describing the surge in sports consumption as GDP per capita exceeds $5,000, reflecting a shift in consumer focus towards quality of life and health management [19][20]. - Both brands have effectively tapped into this cycle, with adidas leveraging high-profile marathon sponsorships and HLA enhancing its brand presence through substantial event sponsorships and consumer engagement [20][22]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Brand Strategy - HLA's strategy includes creating high-value experiences for consumers, such as providing premium race kits and engaging in community-driven events, which enhance brand loyalty and consumer trust [24][26]. - The collaboration aims to expand HLA's market reach from a traditional men's clothing brand to a comprehensive lifestyle brand catering to all age groups and fitness enthusiasts, supported by adidas's expertise in sports [25][30]. - HLA's community initiatives, like the "Lan Run Study Club," focus on fostering a sense of belonging and shared experiences among consumers, which is crucial in the current market landscape [28][30].
2025最“陷阱”赛道:成为播客主
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-30 09:21
Core Insights - The article discusses the booming podcast industry in China, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges faced by creators in this space as it approaches a commercialization peak by 2025 [4][12]. Group 1: Podcast Market Dynamics - Major luxury brands are investing in advertising on independent podcast platforms, indicating a growing recognition of the medium's potential [4]. - The podcasting landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, with platforms like Douyin, Bilibili, and Xiaohongshu entering the audio space, intensifying the battle for audience attention [4][12]. - By the end of 2025, the number of podcast users in China is expected to exceed 170 million, with a significant increase in the number of podcast creators [12][13]. Group 2: Creator Challenges - Despite the growth, many full-time podcasters struggle financially, with only about 20% able to sustain themselves solely through podcasting [5][19]. - The article highlights the disparity between the top-tier podcasters who can monetize their content effectively and the majority who find it challenging to secure advertising deals [19][28]. - Many creators report low income, with an average of only 4.5 brand deals per year, indicating a tough monetization environment [19][20]. Group 3: Audience Engagement and Content Quality - The audience for podcasts is described as highly educated and affluent, similar to early adopters of platforms like Xiaohongshu, which suggests a potential for high-value content [8][10]. - There is a growing trend of listeners seeking content that enhances their professional knowledge and efficiency, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards educational material [10][12]. - The article notes that the quality of content is crucial, as listeners are quick to critique and demand high standards, which can lead to significant pressure on creators [24][25]. Group 4: Future Trends and Opportunities - The article suggests that video podcasts are gaining popularity, with video content accounting for 80-90% of views, indicating a shift in how audiences consume podcast material [28]. - Creators are encouraged to explore direct monetization strategies, such as offering personalized coaching or educational services, rather than relying solely on brand partnerships [29][30]. - The potential for growth in the podcasting industry remains strong, with the right content and engagement strategies likely to yield success for dedicated creators [30].
扎克伯格怒砸数十亿美金,为什么买Manus的不是中国公司?
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-30 09:21
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant acquisition of the AI startup Butterfly Effect by Meta for several billion dollars, highlighting the rapid rise of its product Manus, which is described as the first general AI agent. This acquisition marks a pivotal moment for a young entrepreneur from Wuhan, China, and signifies a strategic alignment between Meta and the innovative capabilities of Manus [5][8][13]. Group 1: Company Growth and Product Development - Manus was officially launched on March 6, 2025, and is designed as a general AI agent capable of understanding complex instructions and executing tasks autonomously [10]. - Within 48 hours of its launch, Manus saw explosive demand, with invitation codes being sold for thousands of dollars, leading to server overloads and rapid scaling efforts by the team [11]. - By April 2025, Manus secured $75 million in Series B funding from Benchmark Capital, increasing its valuation to nearly $500 million, a fivefold increase in just a few months [12]. - Manus achieved an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of over $100 million within nine months of its launch, processing over 147 trillion tokens and creating more than 80 million virtual computers [12]. Group 2: Strategic Acquisition and Market Position - The acquisition negotiations between Meta and Manus were remarkably swift, taking only about ten days, driven by the fact that Meta executives were already users of Manus [13]. - The article emphasizes that Manus's success is attributed to its unique product philosophy and strategic positioning in the AI market, focusing on a general platform before specializing [18]. - Manus's approach to product development contrasts with competitors who focused on vertical applications, allowing it to establish a broader market presence [18]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Industry Implications - The article raises questions about why Chinese tech giants did not acquire Manus, despite attempts from companies like Alibaba and ByteDance, which were significantly lower than Meta's offer [22][25]. - Meta's acquisition strategy is characterized by aggressive moves to fill gaps in its AI capabilities, especially in light of its struggles with internal model development [25][26]. - The acquisition of Manus not only provides Meta with a validated AI technology but also positions it to capture the next core interface in human-computer interaction, leveraging Manus's capabilities to enhance its product ecosystem [26].
6万亿时代,ETF一哥做对了什么?
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-30 09:21
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of the public fund industry in China, highlighting the transition from reliance on individual "star" fund managers and products to a more systematic approach that emphasizes platformization and product toolization. 华夏基金 aims to become a "Lego" in the asset management industry, allowing investors to customize their investment strategies according to their preferences [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Evolution - The public fund industry has undergone significant changes since its inception in 1998, moving from dependence on individual personalities to a focus on enhancing overall system resilience and predictability [2]. - 华夏基金 has positioned itself as a pioneer in this transformation, advocating for a multi-asset platform that integrates various investment strategies and products [2][4]. Group 2: 华夏基金's Product Strategy - As of December 24, 华夏基金 has over 400 public fund products, reflecting a diverse range of investment strategies across global markets and asset classes. This extensive product lineup is foundational for building a multi-asset platform [5]. - In 2023, 华夏基金 launched 77 new products, demonstrating its commitment to expanding its offerings while maintaining quality [5]. - The company has successfully introduced several high-performing products, such as the 华夏上证基准做市公司债ETF and 华夏中证AAA科技创新公司债ETF, both surpassing 100 billion yuan in scale [5]. Group 3: ETF Development - 华夏基金 has been a leader in the ETF space, with 117 ETF products as of December 24, 2023. Notable ETFs like 华夏沪深300ETF and 华夏上证50ETF have achieved scales of 2287.90 billion yuan and 1773.92 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - The company has seen its global ranking among ETF providers improve, reaching 18th place with a management scale of 1268 billion USD by Q3 2025 [7]. Group 4: Active and Passive Investment Integration - 华夏基金 is also focusing on integrating active equity, fixed income, and FOF products to create a comprehensive investment ecosystem that caters to diverse investor needs [10]. - The 华夏北交所创新中小企业精选两年定开 fund has achieved impressive returns of 79.85% this year and 272.71% over the past three years, showcasing the company's proactive approach in emerging markets [10]. Group 5: Investor Education and Tools - To support its "Lego" vision, 华夏基金 has developed various educational platforms and tools, such as the "红色火箭" service, which provides a comprehensive online service for index investment [14][15]. - The "LetfGo" module within the "红色火箭" platform allows users to simulate investment combinations, enhancing the user experience and facilitating better investment decisions [15]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The company aims to lead the industry into a new phase of asset allocation, emphasizing the importance of customized investment strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach [15]. - 华夏基金's vision of creating a "wealth Lego" platform is expected to further enhance its business resilience and adapt to the evolving needs of investors [15].