Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices continue to rise, with London gold increasing by 2% this week [2] - European and Japanese stock markets saw gains, while US stock markets declined, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq dropping by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Global bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 6 basis points [2] - Oil prices also saw an uptick, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 2.7% and 2.5% respectively [2] - The US dollar index strengthened by 0.6% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Disagreements among Federal Reserve officials are evident, with Powell indicating economic growth is slowing and employment risks are increasing, yet maintaining a neutral stance on future policy [4] - Concerns about inflation were raised by two FOMC members, while others advocated for quicker rate cuts [4] US Economic Dynamics - New home sales in the US surged by 20.5% month-on-month in August, marking the largest monthly increase since August 2022, attributed to lower mortgage rates and increased sales incentives from builders [9] - The second quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, significantly higher than the initial estimate of 3% [9] - The PCE price index for August showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%, indicating stable inflation pressures [9] - A potential government shutdown looms if Congress fails to reach an agreement by September 30, with significant partisan disagreements complicating negotiations [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in September, while the services PMI rose to 51.4, indicating a mixed economic outlook [17] - Japan's manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.4, the lowest since March, while the services PMI remained robust at 53 [17]

Core Viewpoint - Since late August, the gold market has seen a significant increase, with London gold spot prices rising over 10% [2] - Short-term gold prices are not expected to peak, with projections of reaching $3,900 and $4,200 per ounce by the end of this year and mid-next year, respectively [2][13] - The main drivers for the current gold price increase include rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, fiscal expansion leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets, and a return of speculative funds [2][6][11] Short-term Gold Price Outlook - The rapid rise in gold prices is primarily driven by the worsening U.S. employment situation, which has heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][7] - The current federal benchmark interest rate remains above the neutral rate, suggesting that further cuts are likely to stimulate the economy [7] - Fiscal expansion and rising debt risks are contributing to a bullish outlook for gold, as global economies face increased concerns over long-term debt supply and inflation resilience [11][13] Long-term Gold Price Position - Long-term gold prices may potentially exceed $10,000 per ounce, influenced by changes in the global monetary system and central bank gold purchases [3][20] - Two scenarios are proposed for long-term gold price projections: one where emerging market central banks increase gold holdings significantly, and another where a continued decline of the dollar leads to a substantial rise in gold demand [20][31] - Historical trends show that gold prices have risen significantly during periods of monetary system changes, with past increases exceeding 1800% during the 1970s [14][17] Shanghai Gold Price Lag - Recent domestic gold price increases have lagged behind those in Europe and the U.S., primarily due to the concentration of price rises during European and U.S. trading hours [4][34] - The appreciation of the Chinese yuan has also pressured Shanghai gold prices, as it reduces the price differential with overseas gold [37] - A rising risk appetite in domestic markets has led to a shift of funds from gold to equities and commodities, further suppressing Shanghai gold price increases [39]

Global Asset Price Performance - Government bond yields have generally risen, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increasing by 8 basis points [2] - Global stock markets saw more gains than losses, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices both rising by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq index increasing by 2.2% [2] - Oil prices have increased, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising by 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively, while London gold prices rose by 1.2% [2] - The U.S. dollar index remained nearly unchanged compared to the previous week [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as expected, with a slight majority of officials indicating at least two more rate cuts by the end of the year [4] - The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged and slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction to £70 billion [4] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fifth consecutive time it has remained unchanged [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. retail sales showed resilience, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in August and a year-on-year growth rate of 5% [8] - New housing starts in the U.S. fell by 8.5% month-on-month in August, marking the lowest level since May, indicating continued suppression in the real estate market due to high interest rates [8] - Industrial production showed marginal improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in August, driven by a 2.6% increase in automotive and parts production [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The UK signed a technology cooperation agreement with the U.S., focusing on rapidly developing fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing [20] - Japan's CPI fell to 2.7% in August, with core CPI also dropping to 2.7%, the first time below 3% since last November, primarily due to subsidies on electricity and gas [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, indicating a shift in the balance of risks due to a slowing labor market and rising unemployment [2][5][9]. Group 1: Employment and Labor Market - The U.S. labor market is transitioning towards an oversupply, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest since the end of 2021, driven by returning job seekers [3][6][9]. - Job gains have slowed, and the labor market is no longer considered stable, with the Federal Reserve acknowledging a shift in employment conditions [5][6]. - Wage growth is decelerating, indicating a decrease in workers' bargaining power [3][6]. Group 2: Inflation Trends - Inflation has shown a moderate increase, with service inflation stabilizing due to housing, while tariff costs are gradually reflecting in goods inflation, albeit at a mild rate [3][6][9]. - The Federal Reserve has noted that inflation remains elevated, with expectations for PCE inflation adjusted upwards to 2.6% for 2026 [5][8]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Economic activity is moderating, with the Federal Reserve raising its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% and for 2026 to 1.8% [8]. - Consumer spending is reported to be higher than expected, although uncertainty and tariffs are impacting consumption decisions [8]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts remains, with expectations of two more cuts within the year as the labor market weakens and inflation risks persist [9].

Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices both rising by 1.6%, and the Nasdaq index increasing by 2% this week [2][3] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to decline by 4 basis points [2] - Commodity prices saw a decrease in crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices falling by 1.7% and 0.9% respectively, while London gold prices rose by 1.6% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Federal Reserve: A U.S. District Court judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to potentially attend the upcoming FOMC meeting [5] - European Central Bank: The ECB maintained its deposit rate at 2%, marking the second consecutive pause in rate cuts, with little change in inflation outlook [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - Inflation in the U.S. showed moderate growth, with the CPI year-on-year increase rising to 2.9%. Core CPI remained stable, but a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points was noted [9] - Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, reaching the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a cooling labor market [9] - The NFIB small business confidence index reached 100.8, the highest since January 2025, driven by a significant increase in new orders [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - France: The government faced a crisis as Prime Minister Borne resigned after losing parliamentary confidence, with the new Prime Minister likely to struggle for majority support [21] - Germany: Industrial production showed a month-on-month increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, indicating potential for recovery despite ongoing challenges [21]

Core Insights - Inflation has shown a moderate increase, with the August CPI year-on-year growth rising to 2.9%, and the core CPI remaining stable at 3.1% [4][15] - The increase in energy and food prices has been offset by a decrease in core services and an increase in core goods [4][15] Inflation Trends - The CPI for energy has rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2% in August, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Gasoline prices have seen a reduced decline of -6.6% year-on-year, while electricity prices have increased by 6.2% [5] Core Goods Analysis - The year-on-year growth rate for core goods has risen to 1.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [7] - Significant price increases have been observed in used cars, which saw a year-on-year growth of 6%, and new cars, which increased by 0.7% [7] Core Services Overview - The year-on-year growth rate for core services has remained stable at 3.6%, with a slight decrease in the month-on-month growth rate to 0.3% [9] - The owner’s equivalent rent has decreased to a growth rate of 4%, indicating a cooling trend in housing inflation [9] Long-term Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for one year have risen to 4.8%, while five-year expectations have increased to 3.5% [12] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index decreased, leading to market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut [15]

Core Viewpoints - The implementation of Trump's "transshipment tariffs" and the resumption of postal package taxation will lead to a renewed wave of Chinese enterprises going abroad [2] - The current state of various industries in China going abroad and the differences from direct exports are examined, along with the impact on profit margins [2][3] - East Asian enterprises are driven to go abroad due to rising factor costs and tightening internal and external environments, leading to a restructuring of industrial chains [2][6] Industry Outbound Trends - The outbound journey of East Asian enterprises is primarily driven by rising costs and stricter internal and external environments, prompting a shift from labor-intensive to technology-intensive and service industries [6][10] - Different regions have unique triggers and paths for going abroad, with South Korea focusing on steel and automotive industries, while Taiwan has shifted from chemicals to services [7][12] - The automotive and light industries have led the way in outbound revenue, while electronics and electrical machinery are transitioning from exports to outbound production [3][34] Profit Margin Impact - Overall, there is a positive correlation between Chinese enterprises going abroad and profit margins, with significant industry differences [4][50] - Industries such as light industry, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals see notable profit margin increases after going abroad, while electronics and textiles remain export-dependent [4][63] - The reasons for higher overseas profit margins include supply-demand gaps, brand premiums, and higher consumption levels [65][66] Policy and Market Dynamics - The past decade has seen a shift from "export-oriented" to "global operations" for Chinese enterprises, driven by supportive policies and market conditions [30][32] - The "Belt and Road" initiative has catalyzed outbound revenue growth, particularly in the automotive and light industries [32][33] - The impact of geopolitical risks has led to a cautious approach in the oil and petrochemical sectors, resulting in a decrease in overseas operations [48] Future Outlook - Industries such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, electrical machinery, and electronics are expected to see continued overseas profit growth [81] - The challenges faced by food and beverage, electronics, and textile industries in improving profitability due to localization barriers and international uncertainties are highlighted [81][78]

Core Viewpoint - In August, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, a decline of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, with the month-on-month growth also below the median of the past five years, primarily due to a rebound in the base from the same period last year and weakened U.S. imports following tariff implementation [2][3]. Export Analysis - The decline in export growth is attributed to weakened U.S. imports due to tariffs and a rebound in the previous year's base, which has exerted pressure on exports [3]. - Exports to Southeast Asia have increased as a substitute for direct exports to the U.S., while exports to Europe have rebounded against a backdrop of a significant increase in the previous year's base [8]. - The electronic industry chain, particularly consumer electronics, has shown strong performance despite the overall decline in exports [12]. Import Analysis - In August, China's import growth rate was 1.3%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, with the month-on-month growth hitting a five-year low, mainly due to a halt in production-related imports and continued weak domestic demand [11]. - Imports from major trading partners, except for ASEAN and the U.S., have generally declined, with significant drops from resource countries and "Belt and Road" nations [11][14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus expanded to $102.33 billion in August, indicating that net exports continue to support the economy [17]. - Future export outlook suggests potential improvement in September due to a low base, but a significant increase in the fourth quarter's base may lead to a stable yet declining export center [17].

Global Asset Price Performance - The US dollar assets have strengthened, with mixed performance in global stock markets; US stocks rose while European and Japanese markets generally declined. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices increased by 0.6%, 0.2%, and 1.2% respectively [2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield continued to decline by 6 basis points, likely due to weak employment data reinforcing rate cut expectations [2] - Oil prices fell, with WTI and Brent crude down by 1% and 0.6% respectively, while London gold prices increased by 3% [2] - The US dollar index rose by 0.5% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Employment data has catalyzed rate cut expectations; Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated the call for a rate cut in the next meeting. Following the August non-farm payroll data, the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September rose to 12%, with an expected average of 2.8 cuts by year-end [4] - In Japan, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare announced a 6.3% increase in the minimum wage for the fiscal year, supporting the "wage-price loop" and providing backing for continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] US Economic Dynamics - Employment data showed weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since the end of 2021. The increase was attributed to more unemployed individuals re-entering the job market, while the U6 unemployment rate also rose by 0.2 percentage points [8] - The ADP reported that new job additions in August fell to 54,000, and initial jobless claims reached a six-month high, indicating a cooling labor market and reinforcing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8] - Tariffs are beginning to impact consumer spending, with the Fed's Beige Book indicating stagnant economic activity across most regions, and many households experiencing wage growth that has not kept pace with rising prices [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - In Europe, long-term bond yields have significantly increased, with the Eurozone CPI growth rate at 2.1% and the unemployment rate steady at 6.2%. Concerns over government debt have risen due to increased fiscal spending in response to geopolitical and economic recovery challenges [19] - In the UK, the 30-year government bond yield surpassed 5.7%, the highest since 1998, while France's 30-year bond yield exceeded 4.5% [19] - Japan's manufacturing sector remains under pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, indicating contraction, despite nominal wage growth reaching 4.1% in July [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a shift in the labor market towards oversupply, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since the end of 2021, while the labor participation rate increased to 62.3% [2][5][14] - The U6 unemployment rate also rose by 0.2 percentage points, indicating increased difficulty for marginal labor to find employment, suggesting a cooling labor market overall [5][14] - Non-farm payroll additions decreased significantly in August, with only 22,000 new jobs created, and downward revisions of 21,000 jobs for June and July combined [2][14] Group 2 - The education and healthcare sector saw the largest decline in new jobs, losing 31,000 positions, while government and financial sectors also experienced notable job losses [4][5] - Job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.18 million in July, with a vacancy rate of 4.3%, indicating that labor supply exceeds demand, suggesting a potential turning point in the labor market [7][14] - Wage growth is slowing, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 3.7% year-over-year, reflecting a decline in workers' bargaining power [9][10] Group 3 - The market anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut rising to 12.2%, and expectations for 2.8 rate cuts within the year [14] - The actual wage growth, adjusted for inflation, was 1.2% year-over-year in July, indicating stable wage income growth despite the overall cooling labor market [16]