Core CPI and Inflation Trends - The core CPI remained flat at 2.7% year-on-year in December, aligning with expectations; the core CPI was at 2.6%, below the expected 2.7%, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [2] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3%; energy inflation continued to decline, offsetting the rebound in food prices, with core goods and services remaining low [2] Energy Inflation - In December, the year-on-year growth rate of energy CPI dropped to 2.3%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month; gasoline prices fell to -4.3% year-on-year, while electricity prices remained high at 6.7% [5] - The average price of Brent crude oil in December was $62.94 per barrel, down from $63.87, indicating a steady decline towards $60 due to oversupply in the oil market [5] - EIA data suggests a global oil market surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day in 2025, increasing to 2.26 million barrels per day in 2026, indicating continued pressure on oil prices [5] Automotive Inflation - Core goods year-on-year growth was recorded at 1.4%, unchanged from the previous month; new and used car prices continued to decline to 0.3% and 1.6% respectively [6] - Leading indicators suggest a potential marginal recovery in automotive inflation by Q1 2026, indicating possible improvements in durable goods consumption post Fed rate cuts in late 2025 [6] Service Inflation - Core services year-on-year growth remained flat at 3%, with housing holding steady at 3.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%; high mortgage rates continue to suppress housing inflation [8] - Medical services saw a rebound of 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, countering the decline in transportation services, which have been affected by falling oil prices [8] Long-term Inflation Expectations - In January 2026, the one-year inflation expectation from Michigan consumers remained at 4.2%, while the five-year expectation increased to 3.4% from 3.2%, indicating ongoing consumer concerns about inflation risks [10] Interest Rate Expectations - Following the inflation data release, the dollar index fluctuated, and U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines; the two-year Treasury yield decreased by about 1 basis point to 3.53% [12] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June increased to 70% from 68%, with the likelihood of a rate cut in January dropping to 2.8% [12] - Overall, the continued low inflation in December suggests further potential for Fed rate cuts in the future [12]

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a continued slowdown in non-farm employment growth, with December's addition dropping to 50,000, below the expected 65,000, and a downward revision of 76,000 for October and November combined [2] - The private sector added 37,000 jobs in December, with an average of 43,000 jobs added in November and December, indicating a persistent trend of slowing job growth [2] - The leisure and hospitality sectors contributed significantly to job growth, adding 47,000 and 41,000 jobs respectively, while manufacturing continued to show negative job growth, indicating weak demand in the sector [5] Group 2 - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with the labor force participation rate decreasing to 62.4%, suggesting a complex labor market dynamic [6] - The number of job vacancies in November dropped to 7.146 million, the lowest since 2021, indicating a growing mismatch between labor supply and demand [8] - Average hourly earnings in December increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, reflecting resilience in wage growth despite broader economic challenges [9][12] Group 3 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in January decreased significantly from 14% to 5%, indicating a shift in market sentiment following the release of the non-farm data [17] - The overall labor market conditions suggest an increasing supply-demand imbalance, which may continue to exert pressure on the employment market moving forward [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic research in optimizing portfolio structures and managing risks in a highly uncertain macro environment, highlighting the strategic value of the macro team in connecting various research outputs and providing a multi-dimensional analysis framework [1]. Group 1: Macro Research Team - The macro team is described as the "central nervous system" of the research institute, crucial for calibrating industry research's policy sensitivity and providing underlying logic for asset allocation [1]. - The new addition of Dr. Chen Xing, with over ten years of macro research experience, aims to build three major research matrices: domestic real economy, financial liquidity and asset allocation, and overseas economy [1]. Group 2: Research Philosophy - The article advocates for a research philosophy of "大道至简" (simplicity in complexity), encouraging clear and actionable conclusions rather than overly complex analyses [5][6]. - It stresses the importance of making research accessible to a broad audience, avoiding technical jargon and focusing on straightforward communication of complex ideas [5]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Aspirations - The article reflects on the author's past experiences and the influence of mentors in shaping research approaches, emphasizing the need to learn from historical insights while looking forward [6]. - There is a commitment to delivering more insightful research outcomes in the future, with an appeal for continued support from clients and stakeholders [6].

Core Viewpoints - Fiscal expansion will shift focus from scale to efficiency, emphasizing structural improvements and effectiveness in 2026, with debt instruments enhancing collaboration to amplify multiplier effects [2][9][12] - Monetary policy will prioritize coordination with fiscal measures, maintaining stable interest rates during periods of government leverage slowdown, with a focus on managing debt risks and other long-term variables [2][15][18] Expanding Domestic Demand - Broad fiscal expansion aims to stabilize investment, with a focus on utilizing new special bonds for "new infrastructure" and "green infrastructure" to promote investment recovery [21][23] - Subsidy policies will be optimized to enhance consumption, with a shift towards nationwide standardized subsidies and a focus on supporting quality service supply [26][27][28] Addressing Overcapacity - The core of addressing overcapacity involves curbing unreasonable incremental capacity expansion and cleaning up overdue payments to alleviate corporate burdens [30][31] New Growth Drivers - Emphasis on bridging gaps in the technology service sector, with a focus on converting technological advantages into competitive advantages in industries [32][33] - The integration of artificial intelligence with manufacturing is highlighted as a key direction for growth, opening new markets and enhancing manufacturing capabilities [33][34] Trade Structure Adjustment - Export structures need adjustment, with a focus on optimizing supply chain layouts to mitigate external shocks, encouraging service exports to enhance resilience against external policy uncertainties [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a macroeconomic calendar for 2026, detailing important economic data releases and meetings that could impact market conditions and investment strategies [1]. Domestic Data - PMI data is scheduled for release on January 31, February 4, March 31, April 30, May 31, June 30, July 31, August 31, September 30, October 31, November 30, and December 31 [1]. - Foreign trade data will be released on March 14, February 10, February 14, June 9, February 9, February 14, and December 10 [1]. - Financial data is expected to be published between 16:00 and 19:00 on January 12, February 13, March 13, April 13, May 12, June 12, July 13, August 14, September 11, October 12, November 13, and December 11 [1]. - Price data will be available on January 9:30, February 11, March 9, April 10, May 11, June 10, July 9, August 9, September 14, October 9, November 9, and December 9 [1]. - Industrial enterprise profit data is set for release on January 9:30, February 271, March 271, April 271, May 271, June 271, July 271, August 271, September 271, October 271, November 271, and December 271 [1]. Overseas Data - U.S. non-farm employment data will be released on the 9th of each month from January to December [1]. - U.S. CPI data is scheduled for January 13, February 11, March 11, April 10, May 12, June 10, July 14, August 12, September 11, October 14, November 10, and December 10 [1]. - U.S. GDP data will be published on April 29, with no specific dates for other months [1]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is set for April 29, September 19, and June 30 [1]. - The European Central Bank's interest rate meeting is scheduled for April 5, April 19, and April 30 [1]. Important Meetings - The Central Economic Work Conference will take place in mid-December [1]. - The Political Bureau meeting focused on economic research is expected at the end of each month [1]. - The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference is scheduled for April 24-27 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a macroeconomic calendar for 2026, detailing important economic data releases and meetings that could impact market conditions and investment strategies [1]. Domestic Data - PMI data is scheduled for release on January 31, February 4, March 31, April 30, May 31, June 30, July 31, August 31, September 30, October 31, November 30, and December 31 [1]. - Foreign trade data will be released on March 14, February 10, February 14, June 9, February 14, and December 10 [1]. - Financial data is expected to be published between 16:00 and 19:00 on January 12, February 13, March 13, April 13, May 12, June 12, July 13, August 14, September 11, October 12, November 13, and December 11 [1]. - Price data will be available on January 9:30, February 11, March 9, April 10, May 11, June 10, July 9, August 9, September 14, October 9, November 9, and December 9 [1]. - Industrial enterprise profit data is set for release on January 9:30, February 271, March 271, April 271, May 271, June 271, July 271, August 271, September 271, October 271, November 271, and December 271 [1]. Overseas Data - U.S. non-farm employment data will be released on January 9, February 6, March 6, April 3, May 8, June 5, July 2, August 4, September 21, October 6, November 4, and December 4 [1]. - U.S. CPI data is scheduled for January 13, February 11, March 11, April 10, May 12, June 10, July 14, August 12, September 11, October 14, November 10, and December 10 [1]. - U.S. GDP data will be available on April 29, with no specific dates for other months [1]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is set for April 29, September 19, and November 1 [1]. Important Meetings - The Central Economic Work Conference is expected to occur in mid-December [1]. - The Political Bureau meeting focused on economic research is scheduled for the end of each month [1]. - The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference will take place from April 24 to April 27 [1].

报 告 正 文 PMI表现如何？ 12月全国制造业PMI显著回升，4月以来首度升至扩张区间，持平于过去五年同期中位数水 平，构成制造业PMI指数的五大分指数中，新订单、生产、原材料库存指数上升，从业人员指数下降，作为逆 指数的供应商配送时间指数上升。趋势变动情况看，供需同步改善，内需相对外需走强，需求端库存有所积 累，下游利润有所恢复。企业类型看，大、中型企业景气明显改善，小型企业景气回落。 此外，有三点值得关注 ： 一是产需同步修复。 一方面是中美吉隆坡经贸磋商后11-12月新出口订单指数连续 大幅回升，虽然新出口订单指数尚在荣枯线下，但新订单指数升至扩张区间；另一方面是生产指数环比改善幅 度超近十年同期，产需同步修复带动制造业PMI显著改善。 二是出厂价格相对购进价格改善。 11-12月出厂价 格指数连续上升，或指向下游利润分配出现改善迹象。 三是生产经营活动预期指数大幅上升。 制造业生产经 营活动预期指数环比升幅在近十年同期中仅低于2022年，创下年内新高，在外部扰动暂时缓和、内部政策定 调明确、以及清理欠款、反内卷等持续推进下，企业经营状态或在逐步改善，后续资本开支意愿或有提振。 制造业PMI显著上升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the author's journey in macroeconomic research over the past decade, emphasizing the importance of adapting research methodologies to current market conditions and the evolving economic landscape [5][10]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The author predicts a weakening of the US dollar, driven by a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy towards a more accommodative stance, which is expected to exceed market expectations [7]. - The article discusses the rise of gold as a significant asset, highlighting the author's research on the changing dynamics of gold pricing and central bank purchases, which filled a gap in market research [7][8]. - The author notes that the traditional macroeconomic frameworks need to be revised to better reflect the realities of the new economic phase, particularly in light of the limitations of GDP as a growth measure [14]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The article anticipates a stable macroeconomic environment in the coming year, suggesting that while the economy may remain steady, the stock market may not necessarily mirror economic trends due to structural changes brought about by new economic factors [14][15]. - The author highlights the role of liquidity in driving stock prices, indicating that a favorable global liquidity environment, influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, could support a bullish market trend [15]. - The article suggests that various asset classes, including stocks and bonds, may experience a phase of resonance in the upcoming year, driven by the recovery and expansion of balance sheets across economic sectors [15].

报 告 正 文 1.全球资产价格表现 股市普遍上行。 股市方面 ，本周全球主要股市普遍上涨。美股三大指数来看，本周标普500、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别上涨3.7%、3.2%和4.9%。 债市 方面， 海外主要市场债市收益率分化，10年期美债收益率下跌4bp。 商品方面， 原油价格震荡，WTI原油下跌0.6%，布伦特原油上涨0.1%，本周伦敦金价上 涨3.8%。 汇率方面， 美元指数下跌0.7%。 | 全球股市 | 周涨跌幅(%) | 月 涨跌幅(%) | 全球债市 | 周涨跌幅(bp) | 月沸跌幅(bp) | 全球汇市 | 周涨跌幅(%) | 月 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标普500 | 3.7 | 0.1 | 美国国债收益率:2年 | -4.0 | -13.0 | 美元指数 | -0.7 | 1.8 | | 道琼斯 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 美国国债收益率:10年 | -4.0 | -11.0 | 美元兑离岸人民币 | -0.6 | -0.8 | | 纳斯达克 | 4.9 | -1.5 | 中 ...