Core CPI and Inflation Trends - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3% in September, while the overall CPI increased to 3% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.3% [2][4][14] - Energy prices saw a rise, contributing to the overall CPI increase, while core services continued to cool down [4][14] Energy Sector Insights - The year-on-year growth rate of energy CPI rose to 2.8%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, with Brent crude oil averaging $68.2 per barrel in September [5] - Oil prices have been under pressure since October, averaging $64.9 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical developments and economic growth concerns [5] Commodity Inflation Analysis - Core commodity year-on-year growth remained stable at 1.5%, with a slight month-on-month decline [7] - The used car market showed signs of slowing sales, indicating a potential lack of sustained upward pressure on prices [7] Service Sector Performance - Core service year-on-year growth decreased to 3.5%, with housing and transportation services contributing to the decline [10] - Owner's equivalent rent growth fell to 3.8%, suggesting that housing inflation may continue to cool in the coming months [10] Long-term Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for one year slightly decreased to 4.6%, while five-year expectations rose to 3.9%, indicating ongoing concerns about future inflation risks [12] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the inflation data release, expectations for two more interest rate cuts this year were reinforced, as the overall inflation performance appears moderate and lacks significant upward momentum [14]

Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is ongoing but has slowed down, leading to liquidity in the financial system approaching a critical threshold [2][6] - Recent signs of tension in the repurchase market and increased volatility in funding rates raise concerns about potential severe liquidity shocks [6][10] Group 1: Liquidity at a Critical Point - U.S. liquidity is diminishing as the Federal Reserve continues its balance sheet reduction, with the overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) balance dropping to $5.48 billion as of October 15, down from $2.5 trillion at the end of 2022 [6][10] - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) experienced a significant spike on September 15, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [6][10] - The reduction in liquidity is attributed to the rebuilding of the Treasury General Account (TGA), which absorbed approximately $140 billion in liquidity during the week of September 17 [10][11] Group 2: Will a "Liquidity Crunch" Reoccur? - The likelihood of a liquidity crunch is low, as bank reserves are expected to decrease but remain above critical levels [3][22] - The next significant influx of tax revenue into the TGA is anticipated in April, which may coincide with a slowdown in Treasury issuance [3][22] - Despite the depletion of excess liquidity, SOFR may remain elevated, but conditions similar to the 2019 liquidity shock are not expected to recur [22] Group 3: When Will Balance Sheet Reduction Stop? - The balance sheet reduction process is likely to continue unless unexpected events occur, with the Federal Reserve expected to halt reductions when reserves are slightly above adequate levels [4][24] - Estimates suggest that the appropriate level for bank reserves is around $2.7 trillion, which may be reached by mid-next year if the current pace of reduction continues [4][24] - Even if a liquidity crisis occurs, the Federal Reserve has tools to provide temporary liquidity and may consider slight balance sheet expansion to support the market [26]

Global Asset Price Performance - Bond market yields generally declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down by 3 basis points [2] - In the stock market, major global indices saw mixed results, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increasing by 1.7%, 1.6%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Commodity prices showed a decline in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude down by 7.3% and 6.4% respectively, while gold prices rose by 5.8% [2] - The U.S. dollar index weakened by 0.3% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is considering halting its balance sheet reduction, with Chairman Powell indicating that reserves are currently sufficient and nearing the level required to stop the reduction [4] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that the monetary policy and economy are in good condition, but further rate cuts cannot be ruled out due to changing circumstances [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. government remains shut down, with the Senate rejecting a temporary funding bill, leading to potential layoffs of over 10,000 federal employees [9] - The NAHB housing market index rose to 37, the highest since April, driven by declining mortgage rates, while small business optimism fell to 98.8, a three-month low [9] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated stable economic activity, with some regions expressing concerns about the risks posed by the government shutdown [10] - Regional banks are facing increased risks, as Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp reported provisions for bad loans, raising concerns about the credit system [10] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary signaled a de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade tensions, suggesting that additional tariffs are not a predetermined option [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The IMF has adjusted its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, while noting that U.S. inflation is expected to remain above target levels [17] - Eurozone industrial production showed a month-on-month decline of 1.2% in August, with major economies like Germany, Italy, and France experiencing decreases [17] - Japan's industrial output fell by 1.5% in August, marking the second consecutive month of decline, influenced by U.S. trade policy uncertainties and weak demand [17]

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth rate in September recorded an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year, despite a decline in the two-year average growth rate and a month-on-month growth rate below the median of the past five years [2][3] Export Analysis - The increase in export growth is primarily attributed to the low base effect from last year and improved cooperation with emerging markets such as Latin America and Africa, which has supported exports to these regions [3][7] - Exports to Latin America and Africa saw significant increases, with growth rates of 15.1% and 56.6% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 27% [7] - The contribution of quantity to export growth has slightly weakened, while price factors have shifted from being a drag to a positive contributor [5][10] Import Analysis - China's import growth rate in September was 7.4%, a significant increase of 6.1 percentage points from August, driven by rising demand for production materials and energy [12] - Imports from the EU increased by 9.5%, benefiting from deepening trade relations between China and Europe, while imports from the US decreased by 16.1% [12][15] - All categories of imports showed varying degrees of increase, with notable growth in industrial raw materials and energy products [15] Trade Balance - The trade surplus in September narrowed to $90.45 billion, but net exports continue to support the economy [17] - Future trade dynamics may be influenced by the expiration of the US-China tariff agreement, with potential concessions from both sides regarding tariffs on rare earths and soybeans [17]

Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices continued to rise, while global stock markets saw mixed results with the Nikkei 225 leading gains. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell by 2.4%, 2.7%, and 2.5% respectively [2] - In the bond market, yields on government bonds in most countries declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down by 8 basis points [2][3] - Commodity prices saw a decline in crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude down by 3.1% and 2.8% respectively, while London gold prices increased by 3.4% [2][3] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened by 1.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed internal divisions regarding further rate cuts, with more than half of the officials expecting at least two more cuts this year, while others opposed further easing [4] - The European Central Bank considered another rate cut in September but decided against it due to rising inflation risks [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its second week, affecting federal operations and delaying the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [8] - Trade tensions with China have escalated, with the U.S. planning to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to significant sell-offs in the stock market [9] - Consumer confidence has weakened, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slightly dropping to 55 from 55.1, indicating concerns over employment and prices [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Political instability in France has increased, with the September composite PMI dropping to 48.1%, while the Eurozone's overall situation remains stable with a composite PMI of 51.2% [17] - In Japan, the new leadership under Kishi Suga is expected to implement measures to address inflation and stimulate the economy, positively impacting market sentiment [17]

Global Asset Performance - Global stock indices mostly rose during the holiday week, with the MSCI global index up 0.8%, and Taiwan and Korea indices leading with gains of 3.6% each [2][5] - The US stock market saw slight increases in major indices, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 rising by 0.5%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively [5][7] - In the bond market, US Treasury yields declined, while government bond yields in several other countries also fell [10][12] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 97.7, while the offshore RMB slightly depreciated by 0.1% to 7.14 [16][18] Overseas Economic Developments Monetary Policy in the US and Europe - There is a divergence in views regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with some officials advocating caution [18][20] - The European Central Bank's president indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation is lower than expected, with inflation in the Eurozone remaining stable at around 2% [20][36] US Economic Indicators - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, with the leisure and hospitality sector seeing the largest declines [22][24] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50%, indicating weak business activity and continued pressure on employment [24][26] - The US housing market shows signs of recovery, with new home sales increasing by 20.5% month-on-month, although home prices remain under pressure [29][31] Government Shutdown Impact - The US government shutdown, which began on October 1, may last over a week, affecting the release of key economic data [27][31] - Historical data suggests that government shutdowns can slightly impact GDP growth, with estimates indicating a reduction of 0.1-0.2 percentage points per week [31][34] Commodity Market Trends - Global commodity prices, excluding oil, generally rose, with LME tin leading the gains at 4.2% [14][16] - Precious metals also saw increases, with COMEX gold up 2.7% and silver up 3.9% during the holiday week [14][16] Regional Economic Insights - Eurozone inflation remains stable, with a CPI increase to 2.2% in September, driven mainly by service costs [36][37] - Japan's political landscape is shifting with the election of the first female president of the ruling party, who is expected to continue a conservative policy approach [37]

Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices continue to rise, with London gold increasing by 2% this week [2] - European and Japanese stock markets saw gains, while US stock markets declined, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq dropping by 0.9%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Global bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 6 basis points [2] - Oil prices also saw an uptick, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 2.7% and 2.5% respectively [2] - The US dollar index strengthened by 0.6% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Disagreements among Federal Reserve officials are evident, with Powell indicating economic growth is slowing and employment risks are increasing, yet maintaining a neutral stance on future policy [4] - Concerns about inflation were raised by two FOMC members, while others advocated for quicker rate cuts [4] US Economic Dynamics - New home sales in the US surged by 20.5% month-on-month in August, marking the largest monthly increase since August 2022, attributed to lower mortgage rates and increased sales incentives from builders [9] - The second quarter GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, significantly higher than the initial estimate of 3% [9] - The PCE price index for August showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%, indicating stable inflation pressures [9] - A potential government shutdown looms if Congress fails to reach an agreement by September 30, with significant partisan disagreements complicating negotiations [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in September, while the services PMI rose to 51.4, indicating a mixed economic outlook [17] - Japan's manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.4, the lowest since March, while the services PMI remained robust at 53 [17]

Core Viewpoint - Since late August, the gold market has seen a significant increase, with London gold spot prices rising over 10% [2] - Short-term gold prices are not expected to peak, with projections of reaching $3,900 and $4,200 per ounce by the end of this year and mid-next year, respectively [2][13] - The main drivers for the current gold price increase include rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, fiscal expansion leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets, and a return of speculative funds [2][6][11] Short-term Gold Price Outlook - The rapid rise in gold prices is primarily driven by the worsening U.S. employment situation, which has heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][7] - The current federal benchmark interest rate remains above the neutral rate, suggesting that further cuts are likely to stimulate the economy [7] - Fiscal expansion and rising debt risks are contributing to a bullish outlook for gold, as global economies face increased concerns over long-term debt supply and inflation resilience [11][13] Long-term Gold Price Position - Long-term gold prices may potentially exceed $10,000 per ounce, influenced by changes in the global monetary system and central bank gold purchases [3][20] - Two scenarios are proposed for long-term gold price projections: one where emerging market central banks increase gold holdings significantly, and another where a continued decline of the dollar leads to a substantial rise in gold demand [20][31] - Historical trends show that gold prices have risen significantly during periods of monetary system changes, with past increases exceeding 1800% during the 1970s [14][17] Shanghai Gold Price Lag - Recent domestic gold price increases have lagged behind those in Europe and the U.S., primarily due to the concentration of price rises during European and U.S. trading hours [4][34] - The appreciation of the Chinese yuan has also pressured Shanghai gold prices, as it reduces the price differential with overseas gold [37] - A rising risk appetite in domestic markets has led to a shift of funds from gold to equities and commodities, further suppressing Shanghai gold price increases [39]

Global Asset Price Performance - Government bond yields have generally risen, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increasing by 8 basis points [2] - Global stock markets saw more gains than losses, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices both rising by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq index increasing by 2.2% [2] - Oil prices have increased, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil rising by 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively, while London gold prices rose by 1.2% [2] - The U.S. dollar index remained nearly unchanged compared to the previous week [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as expected, with a slight majority of officials indicating at least two more rate cuts by the end of the year [4] - The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged and slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction to £70 billion [4] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fifth consecutive time it has remained unchanged [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. retail sales showed resilience, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in August and a year-on-year growth rate of 5% [8] - New housing starts in the U.S. fell by 8.5% month-on-month in August, marking the lowest level since May, indicating continued suppression in the real estate market due to high interest rates [8] - Industrial production showed marginal improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in August, driven by a 2.6% increase in automotive and parts production [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The UK signed a technology cooperation agreement with the U.S., focusing on rapidly developing fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing [20] - Japan's CPI fell to 2.7% in August, with core CPI also dropping to 2.7%, the first time below 3% since last November, primarily due to subsidies on electricity and gas [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, indicating a shift in the balance of risks due to a slowing labor market and rising unemployment [2][5][9]. Group 1: Employment and Labor Market - The U.S. labor market is transitioning towards an oversupply, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, the highest since the end of 2021, driven by returning job seekers [3][6][9]. - Job gains have slowed, and the labor market is no longer considered stable, with the Federal Reserve acknowledging a shift in employment conditions [5][6]. - Wage growth is decelerating, indicating a decrease in workers' bargaining power [3][6]. Group 2: Inflation Trends - Inflation has shown a moderate increase, with service inflation stabilizing due to housing, while tariff costs are gradually reflecting in goods inflation, albeit at a mild rate [3][6][9]. - The Federal Reserve has noted that inflation remains elevated, with expectations for PCE inflation adjusted upwards to 2.6% for 2026 [5][8]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Economic activity is moderating, with the Federal Reserve raising its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% and for 2026 to 1.8% [8]. - Consumer spending is reported to be higher than expected, although uncertainty and tariffs are impacting consumption decisions [8]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts remains, with expectations of two more cuts within the year as the labor market weakens and inflation risks persist [9].