报 告 正 文 新增非农前值被大幅下修。 7 月新增非农就业录得 7.3 万人。然而，前值遭到大幅下修，与上次报告相比， 5 月和 6 月新增非农就业人数被合计共下调 25.8 万人，显示就业水平存在高估。其中， 政府部门是被高估的主要行业 ， 5 月和 6 月合计被下修 11.9 万人。今年年初以来，非农数据不断下调，意味着数据质 量不佳，或与疫情后，机构调查的初次收集率持续走低有关。自 2022 年以来，夏季就业数据均有向下大幅调整， 6 月终值往往会向下修正，而 7 月数据被上 修。例如，在 2023 年和 2024 年， 6 月非农终值分别下修了 10.4 万人和 8.8 万人。 就业市场广泛降温。 7 月失业率上行至 4.2% ， U6 失业率也从 6 月的 7.7% 反弹至 7.9% ，指向就业市场广泛降温。在失业人数上升的同时，劳动参与率下行 至 62.2% ，录得 2023 年年初以来新低；就业率同步下降，永久退出劳动力市场的人数继续增加。整体来看，劳动力市场趋弱。 新增非农就业遭大幅下修。 7 月新增非农就业人数较 6 月回升至 7.3 万人。然而，非农就业前值遭到大幅下修。与上次报告相比， ...

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 油区间震荡，铜、金震荡上行。 内需： 新房销售降幅扩大，汽车销量回落；暑期文娱消费景气改善。 ①新房、乘用车销量增速回落，而二手房降幅收窄。7月新房销量同比降幅走扩，而二手房销量降幅略有收窄。市场休整叠加反内卷，乘用车销售增速零售回落、 批发上行，半钢胎开工小幅下降。上周家电销售均价涨少跌多，7月月均销售价同比增速表现分化。 ②暑期文娱消费景气改善。上周，随着多部佳片上映，电影票房收入继续上涨，同比降幅明显缩窄，暑期档总票房突破60亿元；上周灯塔演出票房由跌转涨，水平 远超去年同期，累计票房达到161.5亿元，同比增长48.4%。上周酒店入住率转降，而每间可售房均价继续上行，整体看每间可售房收入增速放缓，不过同比增速仍 继续改善。 外需： 对等关税2.0出炉，税率外多有附加条件。 后续关注： 出口数据；物价数据 ①对等关税2.0出炉，欧盟和日韩等大经济体加征幅度均低于4月，多数经济体较4月变动不大或略降。中国关税暂缓将再度展期三个月。此外，免税小包政策全部暂 停，从中国扩至全球。 ②还有其他条件，大经济体需承诺对美投资，购买能源品，并部分放开市场。而对于东南亚转口国如越南， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, with two members voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first dissent since 1993 [1] Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace," indicating a slowdown in economic growth [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with June's non-farm payrolls increasing slightly to 147,000, but half of this increase was due to government jobs, while private sector employment declined [2][5] - The labor force participation rate is decreasing, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market [2][5] Inflation Trends - Inflation is experiencing short-term rebound risks, with June inflation rising primarily due to increases in energy and core goods, while core services inflation remains stable [2][5] - The Federal Reserve maintains that inflation is still somewhat elevated, and the process of returning to target levels is halfway complete [4] - Tariff costs are gradually being passed on to consumers, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September significantly decreased from over 60% to below 50% [7] - The stock market experienced a decline, while bond yields rose and the dollar index increased, reflecting market uncertainty regarding inflation and economic conditions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Politburo meeting emphasizes stability over innovation for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, contrasting with the previous focus on seizing opportunities during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Policy Direction - The urgency for macroeconomic policy has decreased, shifting from "accelerated implementation" in April to "timely reinforcement" in July, indicating less pressure to boost domestic demand due to strong external demand [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for policy continuity and stability, focusing on the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones, with limited incremental policies [2] - Key areas of focus include technology innovation, boosting consumption, supporting small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade, with major economic provinces taking a leading role [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy aims to improve the efficiency of fund usage, gradually phasing out inefficient investments, and prohibits new hidden debts for local governments, which may pressure local infrastructure investments [3] - Monetary policy has shifted from supporting the real economy to promoting a reduction in social financing costs, benefiting residents and enterprises broadly, with a focus on interest rate transmission mechanisms [3] - Consumer demand remains a priority, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth points in service consumption and improving livelihoods rather than just increasing income [3] Market Regulation and Competition - The meeting introduced the need to standardize local investment attraction practices, continuing the "anti-involution" policy direction, and aims to reshape market competition order [5] - The approach to supply-side reform differs from 2015, focusing on market-driven measures rather than administrative shutdowns, leading to a more moderate impact on prices [5] Foreign Trade and Capital Markets - Increased support for foreign trade enterprises was noted, with a focus on enhancing financing support for those significantly impacted by tariffs [5] - The capital market is expected to further open up, with an emphasis on maintaining a healthy market trend and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusivity [6] Urban Development - The meeting underscored the transition of urban development from large-scale expansion to quality improvement, aligning with the central urban work meeting's spirit [6] Commodity Market Outlook - The supply-side reform's impact on market competition is expected to be less forceful compared to previous measures, while demand-side policies are shifting towards the implementation of existing measures, leading to a moderate overall stimulus [8] - The previous bullish sentiment in commodities may stabilize as capacity reduction and demand expansion efforts are yet to be fully realized [8]

7 月以来，国内商品市场交易日趋火热，近一周有色、化工和黑色系商品期货价格大幅飙升。那么，本轮商品 热潮由何而起？价格表现有何特点？后续又会如何发展？ 1. 本轮商品热潮由何而起？ 价格跌至谷底， " 人心思涨 " 心态显现。 以国内定价为主的大宗商品，除农产品外，工业金属、化工和能源 等品类，在今年二季度多录得年内新低，部分品类价格甚至跌破或处在成本线附近。在这一背景下， " 人心思 涨 " 心态显现。 本轮商品上涨有哪些特点？ 第一，更多由情绪驱动而非基本面， 国内大宗商品期货价格多有回升，但由国际 定价的铜与原油价格波动不大。 其次，本轮商品期货价格与企业盈利存在较强相关性， 叠加政策预期吸引资 金同步布局期货与股票市场， 形成 " 期股共振 " 行情。第三，各品类期现基差分化严重。一方面，从现货和 期货价格涨幅差来看， 对于以多晶硅和焦煤为主的品类，交易者预期变动对未来的供需缺口影响更大，而对 当下基本面影响偏小。 另一方面，从基差幅度来看， 以烧碱和焦炭为主的品类，当前期货价远高于现价，未 来要么现货价在基本面的改善下大幅提升，要么期货价回落至现货价水平。 后续会如何发展？ 当前大宗商品行情呈现板块 ...

报 告 正 文 1.全球资产价格表现 日经领涨全球股市。 股市方面，本周全球主要股市多数上涨，受日美达成贸易关税协议提振，日经225较上周上涨4.1%，领涨全球股市。美股三大指数均有所 上涨，标普500、道琼斯工业、纳斯达克综指较上周分别上涨1.1%、0.8%和1%。债市方面，本周主要国债收益率涨跌互现，10年期美债收益率较上周下行 4bp。商品方面，本周油价有所走低，主因欧美贸易协议谈判僵持，引发原油需求前景担忧。汇率方面，美元指数回落0.8% 。 | 全球股市 | 周涨跌幅(%) | 月涨跌幅(%) | 全球债市 | 周涨跌幅(bp | 月涨跌幅(bp) | 全球汇市 | 周涨跌幅(%) | 月涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标普500 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 美国国债收益率:2年 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 美元指数 | -0.8 | -1.0 | | 道琼斯 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 美国国债收益率:10年 | -4.0 | 14.0 | 美元兑高岸人民币 | -0.11 | 0.1 | | ...

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - Gold and copper prices are experiencing slight upward trends, while oil prices are also on the rise [1][11] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan may impact commodity prices positively, particularly for gold [11][6] Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales are seeing an expanded decline, while used car sales are stabilizing; however, tourism consumption remains strong [2][3] - The average selling price of home appliances has shown mixed performance year-on-year, with some categories increasing and others decreasing [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - Export activities are slightly weakening, with a decrease in container shipping rates and a drop in scheduled container bookings from China to the US [5][4] - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces tariffs from 25% to 15%, which may influence trade dynamics in the region [6] Group 4: Production Insights - Steel prices continue to rise, supported by market sentiment and cost factors, with steel mill profitability improving [9][8] - The glass market is showing signs of improvement, although downstream demand remains weak, limiting price increases [10] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic pork wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, while prices for rebar and thermal coal continue to increase [11] - The average occupancy rate of hotels and the average daily rate per available room are both on the rise, indicating a robust tourism sector [3]

核 心 观 点 4月以来，黄金持续区间震荡，盘整了一段时间，而当下多空两方分歧较为严重。那么，后续黄金价格还能创 新高吗？推动黄金上涨的底层逻辑是什么？下半年黄金还有机会吗？ 报 告 正 文 4月以来，黄金持续区间震荡，盘整了一段时间，而当下多空两方分歧较为严重。那么，后续黄金价格还能创 新高吗？推动黄金上涨的底层逻辑是什么？下半年黄金还有机会吗？ 1. 中美竞争是催生黄金牛市的底层逻辑 中美竞争是催生黄金牛市的底层逻辑。 近年来，在中美竞争过程中，美国全球地位相对回落，导致 原有全球 秩序重构 和不确定性增加。而全球 经济、科技、政治和军事格局 变动，进一步推动 国际货币体系变迁 ，并 导致美国内、外治理成本显著上升，债务高企货币超发，二者共同加速全球去美元化。此外，美国军事收缩带 来的地区力量真空导致局部战争频发。在此背景下，作为黄金大买家的各国央行和私人投资者，纷纷增持黄金 资产。 中美竞争是催生黄金大牛市的底层逻辑。 近年来，在中美竞争过程中，美国全球地位相对回落，导致 原有全 球秩序重构 和不确定性增加。而全球 经济、科技、政治和军事格局 变动后，中国后发追赶，在经济和科技领 域与美差距显著缩小，军 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around Elon Musk's decision to establish a new political party called the "America Party" in response to dissatisfaction with the current two-party system in the U.S. and the fiscal budget imbalance [1][4][29] - The America Party aims to promote a small government, fiscal conservatism, government technology reform, and liberal tendencies [4][29] - The establishment of a new party requires a clear official name, political platform, and state-level certification, which can be resource-intensive and challenging for third parties [6][7][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the historical context of third parties in the U.S., noting that the political landscape has become increasingly polarized, making it difficult for third parties to gain traction [2][21] - Third parties often serve to influence the main parties rather than directly winning power, as seen in historical examples where they have split votes or introduced new ideas that were later adopted by the major parties [21][24] - The challenges faced by third parties include the "winner-takes-all" electoral system, lack of funding, and insufficient media exposure, which hinder their ability to compete effectively [25][26] Group 3 - Public perception of Musk has shifted negatively, with a significant portion of the electorate expressing reluctance to support the America Party [3][27] - Musk's strategy focuses on participating in the upcoming midterm elections to secure a few key seats, targeting swing states and independent voters [29][31] - Musk's personal wealth and influence through social media may provide the America Party with resources and visibility that traditional third parties lack [31][32]

报 告 正 文 1.全球资产价格表现 全球主要股市多数上涨。 股市方面，本周全球主要股市多数上涨，美股三大指数均有所上涨，标普500、道琼斯工业、纳达克综指较上周分别上涨0.6%、 0.3%、1.5%。债市方面，本周主要国债收益率涨跌互现，10年期美债收益率较上周上行1bp；10年期日债收益率继续因财政担忧上升，较上周上行2.6bp。商 品方面，本周金价有所走低，油价有所下跌。汇率方面，多数货币相对美元小幅贬值，美元指数回升0.6% 。 | | | 2.主要央行货币政策 下任美联储主席人选颇受关注。 美联储方面 ， 7月16日，特朗普声称可能将很快解雇鲍威尔，已写好信函，引起市场短暂恐慌，美国出现"股债汇三杀"，美 股和美元指数双双下跌，而美债收益率上升。随后，特朗普澄清，解雇鲍威尔的可能性极低，除非他在美联储大楼翻修中存在欺诈行为，市场随之重新企稳。 市场关注度集中于下一任美联储主席人选，财长贝森特周内表示，遴选程序已经开始。 欧央行方面 ，五位欧洲央行管委表示，尽管美国新关税威胁使得欧央 行决策复杂化，但7月仍可能暂停降息。 图：美联储利率路径预期（ % ） 美国通胀略有反弹。 美国6月CPI同比增速小幅 ...