Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm employment data shows a significant downward revision in previous months, indicating an overestimation of employment levels, particularly in government sectors. The overall labor market is cooling down, with rising unemployment rates and declining labor participation rates [2][3][5]. Employment Data Revision - The July non-farm employment recorded an increase of 73,000 jobs, but previous months' data were heavily revised downwards. June's employment was adjusted from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs [3][2]. Unemployment Rate Trends - The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, while the U6 unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%. This indicates a broad cooling of the job market, with a decrease in labor participation rate to 62.2%, the lowest since the beginning of 2023 [5][6]. Sector-Specific Employment Changes - Job growth in July was concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors, with retail, education, and financial activities seeing the most significant increases. However, government employment decreased by 10,000 jobs, marking the third negative month this year, with substantial downward revisions in previous months [6][2]. Labor Market Supply and Demand - As of June, job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.44 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.4%. The labor supply-demand gap recorded 422,000, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels and suggesting a balance in the labor market [8]. Wage Growth Trends - Average hourly earnings in July increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth of 3.9%. However, long-term trends show a slowdown in wage growth since November 2024 [9][10]. Real Wage Growth - The real wage growth, adjusted for inflation, showed a year-over-year increase of 1% in June, down by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. This indicates stable wage income growth [10]. Sectoral Wage Changes - In July, the highest year-over-year wage growth was observed in the retail and business services sectors, at 5.2% and 5.1%, respectively. Conversely, the slowest growth was in public utilities and construction, with declines of approximately 0.7 and 0.2 percentage points [12]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data, expectations for interest rate cuts in September have increased, with the probability rising from 40% to 80%. The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year has also increased from 1.3 to 2.2 [16].

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices are fluctuating, while copper and gold are trending upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New home sales are experiencing a larger decline, while automobile sales are also retreating; however, summer entertainment consumption is showing signs of improvement [2] - In July, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while the drop in second-hand home sales narrowed. The market is undergoing adjustments, and the growth rate of passenger car sales is slowing down, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales increasing [2] - The box office revenue for summer films has significantly improved, with total box office surpassing 6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.4% [2] External Demand - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has seen lower increases in tariffs for major economies like the EU and Japan compared to April, with China's tariffs being postponed for another three months [3] - Additional conditions require major economies to commit to investments in the U.S. and purchase energy products, with an extra 40% tariff on re-exporting countries like Vietnam targeting China [4] - July exports may see a slight decline, with a decrease in shipping weight and a drop in shipping volume to the U.S. [5] Production - The willingness to reduce production remains limited, with steel mill profits continuing to rise, leading to an increase in production [6] - Pork prices have decreased due to increased market supply, while the overall willingness to cut production remains low [7] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants is expected to rise in July, despite a temporary decrease due to weather conditions [7] Prices - Commodity prices have generally declined, with domestic rebar, thermal coal, and glass prices continuing to rise, while cement prices have decreased [8] - Gold prices are under pressure due to a softer tariff environment and the Federal Reserve's stance, while oil prices are supported by geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand [8] Follow-up Focus - Future attention will be on export data and price data [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, with two members voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first dissent since 1993 [1] Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace," indicating a slowdown in economic growth [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with June's non-farm payrolls increasing slightly to 147,000, but half of this increase was due to government jobs, while private sector employment declined [2][5] - The labor force participation rate is decreasing, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market [2][5] Inflation Trends - Inflation is experiencing short-term rebound risks, with June inflation rising primarily due to increases in energy and core goods, while core services inflation remains stable [2][5] - The Federal Reserve maintains that inflation is still somewhat elevated, and the process of returning to target levels is halfway complete [4] - Tariff costs are gradually being passed on to consumers, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September significantly decreased from over 60% to below 50% [7] - The stock market experienced a decline, while bond yields rose and the dollar index increased, reflecting market uncertainty regarding inflation and economic conditions [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Politburo meeting emphasizes stability over innovation for the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, contrasting with the previous focus on seizing opportunities during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Policy Direction - The urgency for macroeconomic policy has decreased, shifting from "accelerated implementation" in April to "timely reinforcement" in July, indicating less pressure to boost domestic demand due to strong external demand [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for policy continuity and stability, focusing on the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones, with limited incremental policies [2] - Key areas of focus include technology innovation, boosting consumption, supporting small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade, with major economic provinces taking a leading role [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy aims to improve the efficiency of fund usage, gradually phasing out inefficient investments, and prohibits new hidden debts for local governments, which may pressure local infrastructure investments [3] - Monetary policy has shifted from supporting the real economy to promoting a reduction in social financing costs, benefiting residents and enterprises broadly, with a focus on interest rate transmission mechanisms [3] - Consumer demand remains a priority, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth points in service consumption and improving livelihoods rather than just increasing income [3] Market Regulation and Competition - The meeting introduced the need to standardize local investment attraction practices, continuing the "anti-involution" policy direction, and aims to reshape market competition order [5] - The approach to supply-side reform differs from 2015, focusing on market-driven measures rather than administrative shutdowns, leading to a more moderate impact on prices [5] Foreign Trade and Capital Markets - Increased support for foreign trade enterprises was noted, with a focus on enhancing financing support for those significantly impacted by tariffs [5] - The capital market is expected to further open up, with an emphasis on maintaining a healthy market trend and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusivity [6] Urban Development - The meeting underscored the transition of urban development from large-scale expansion to quality improvement, aligning with the central urban work meeting's spirit [6] Commodity Market Outlook - The supply-side reform's impact on market competition is expected to be less forceful compared to previous measures, while demand-side policies are shifting towards the implementation of existing measures, leading to a moderate overall stimulus [8] - The previous bullish sentiment in commodities may stabilize as capacity reduction and demand expansion efforts are yet to be fully realized [8]

Group 1 - The current surge in commodity prices is primarily driven by sentiment, supply-side policies, and major infrastructure projects, with a notable "people's desire to rise" mentality emerging as prices hit lows in Q2 [1][4][5] - Supply-side policies aimed at curbing "involution" have been implemented, leading to production limits and price stabilization in industries such as photovoltaics, coal, and pork, which have contributed to price recovery [5][6] - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River Super Hydropower Station, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan and a capacity of 60 million kilowatts, has acted as a catalyst for the recent price increases in the commodity market [6][7] Group 2 - The current commodity price increase is more sentiment-driven than based on fundamentals, with domestic futures prices rising while international prices for copper and oil remain relatively stable [2][11] - There is a significant correlation between commodity futures prices and corporate earnings, leading to a "futures-stock resonance" as investors engage in both markets simultaneously [2][12] - The divergence in basis between different commodity categories indicates that some, like polysilicon and coking coal, are more influenced by trader expectations than current fundamentals, while others, like caustic soda and coke, show a greater risk of price correction [2][13] Group 3 - Future price movements may see opportunities for recovery in commodities that have experienced significant declines, such as alumina, soda ash, and industrial silicon, while those with larger price increases may face greater correction risks [3][15][16] - The assessment of future trends should consider the timing of futures contract expirations, the effectiveness of policy implementations, and the fundamental catalysts for each commodity [3][19] - Without significant improvements in demand, relying solely on supply-side measures to sustain high price levels may not be feasible in the long term [3][19]

Global Asset Price Performance - The Nikkei 225 index led global stock markets with a 4.1% increase, driven by the trade agreement between the US and Japan [1] - Major US stock indices also saw gains, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq rising by 1.1%, 0.8%, and 1% respectively [1] - Oil prices declined due to concerns over the outlook for crude oil demand amid stalled trade negotiations between the US and Europe [1] - The US dollar index fell by 0.8% [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged, indicating a pause in the current rate-cutting cycle [3] - The Federal Reserve is in a quiet period ahead of the FOMC meeting, with market expectations for rate cuts remaining low [3] - The Bank of Japan's deputy governor suggested that the US-Japan trade agreement reduces economic uncertainty, indicating potential for rate hikes later this year [3] US Economic Dynamics - Initial jobless claims in the US slightly decreased to 217,000, indicating stability in the labor market [11] - Core capital goods orders in June showed a negative month-on-month growth of -0.7%, suggesting a decline in business investment [11] - The US manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, marking the first drop below the neutral line since December, primarily due to decreases in input procurement and inventory spending [11] - A trade framework was established between the US and Japan, reducing tariffs on Japanese goods to 15% and allowing Japan to invest $55 billion in US core industries [11] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - The Eurozone's service PMI rose to 51.2, and manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8, indicating signs of recovery [25] - Tensions escalated between Thailand and Cambodia, leading to military conflict, which may impact regional stability [25] Upcoming Key Focus - Key economic data releases include US June retail sales and wholesale inventories, Eurozone Q2 GDP data, and Japan's June industrial output [31]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - Gold and copper prices are experiencing slight upward trends, while oil prices are also on the rise [1][11] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan may impact commodity prices positively, particularly for gold [11][6] Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales are seeing an expanded decline, while used car sales are stabilizing; however, tourism consumption remains strong [2][3] - The average selling price of home appliances has shown mixed performance year-on-year, with some categories increasing and others decreasing [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - Export activities are slightly weakening, with a decrease in container shipping rates and a drop in scheduled container bookings from China to the US [5][4] - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces tariffs from 25% to 15%, which may influence trade dynamics in the region [6] Group 4: Production Insights - Steel prices continue to rise, supported by market sentiment and cost factors, with steel mill profitability improving [9][8] - The glass market is showing signs of improvement, although downstream demand remains weak, limiting price increases [10] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic pork wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, while prices for rebar and thermal coal continue to increase [11] - The average occupancy rate of hotels and the average daily rate per available room are both on the rise, indicating a robust tourism sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to reach new highs, driven by underlying factors such as U.S.-China competition, economic conditions, and central bank purchasing behavior [1][4][46]. Group 1: U.S.-China Competition and Global Dynamics - U.S.-China competition is a fundamental driver of the gold bull market, with the U.S. experiencing a relative decline in global standing, leading to a restructuring of the global order and increased uncertainty [1][4]. - The shift in global economic, technological, political, and military dynamics has accelerated the transformation of the international monetary system, contributing to a wave of de-dollarization [18][22]. - The U.S. military's strategic contraction has created regional power vacuums, resulting in increased local conflicts, which further drives demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [20][22]. Group 2: Economic Factors and Uncertainties - Economic fundamentals indicate that as the U.S. economy weakens, the demand for interest rate cuts will rise, potentially boosting gold prices [2][26]. - The ongoing expansion of U.S. debt is likely to lead central banks and investors to increase their gold purchases [26][29]. - Uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine will continue to support gold prices [27][29]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Central bank gold purchases have significantly increased, with global demand for gold reaching new highs, exceeding 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024 [22][35]. - The demand for gold ETFs has also risen, with global holdings surpassing 3,600 tons and showing a net inflow for 12 consecutive months [24][35]. - Despite high gold prices potentially dampening jewelry demand, the impact is limited as consumers adapt to new price levels [33][34]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The outlook for gold prices in the second half of the year remains optimistic, with expectations for prices to exceed $3,700 per ounce by year-end, driven by ongoing central bank purchases and potential interest rate cuts [3][46]. - Historical data suggests that investment and central bank purchases are the primary drivers of gold price movements, with geopolitical and economic factors influencing short-term volatility [41][43]. - The article emphasizes that the current environment of de-dollarization and increased geopolitical tensions will likely sustain upward pressure on gold prices [18][46].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around Elon Musk's decision to establish a new political party called the "America Party" in response to dissatisfaction with the current two-party system in the U.S. and the fiscal budget imbalance [1][4][29] - The America Party aims to promote a small government, fiscal conservatism, government technology reform, and liberal tendencies [4][29] - The establishment of a new party requires a clear official name, political platform, and state-level certification, which can be resource-intensive and challenging for third parties [6][7][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the historical context of third parties in the U.S., noting that the political landscape has become increasingly polarized, making it difficult for third parties to gain traction [2][21] - Third parties often serve to influence the main parties rather than directly winning power, as seen in historical examples where they have split votes or introduced new ideas that were later adopted by the major parties [21][24] - The challenges faced by third parties include the "winner-takes-all" electoral system, lack of funding, and insufficient media exposure, which hinder their ability to compete effectively [25][26] Group 3 - Public perception of Musk has shifted negatively, with a significant portion of the electorate expressing reluctance to support the America Party [3][27] - Musk's strategy focuses on participating in the upcoming midterm elections to secure a few key seats, targeting swing states and independent voters [29][31] - Musk's personal wealth and influence through social media may provide the America Party with resources and visibility that traditional third parties lack [31][32]

Global Asset Price Performance - Major global stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 0.6%, 0.3%, and 1.5% respectively compared to last week [1] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1 basis point, while the 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 2.6 basis points due to fiscal concerns [1] - Commodity prices saw a decline in gold and oil prices, while the U.S. dollar index appreciated by 0.6% against most currencies [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The next Federal Reserve chair candidate is under significant market scrutiny, especially after President Trump's comments about potentially firing Powell, which caused temporary market panic [3] - The selection process for the next Fed chair has begun, as stated by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering pausing interest rate cuts in July despite complications from U.S. tariff threats [3] U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. inflation showed a slight rebound, with June CPI year-on-year growth rising to 2.7% and core CPI increasing to 2.9% [9] - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations, driven mainly by a recovery in auto sales [9] - The July Beige Book indicated continued moderate growth in the U.S. economy, with consumer confidence slightly improving, although inflation expectations for the next year decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 4.4% [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 52.7, the highest in over three years, driven by progress in U.S.-EU tariff negotiations and government investment plans [17] - Japan's core CPI year-on-year growth slightly slowed to 3.4% in June, influenced by gasoline subsidies and temporary electricity fee reductions, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 39 consecutive months [18]