Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - Gold and copper prices are experiencing slight upward trends, while oil prices are also on the rise [1][11] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan may impact commodity prices positively, particularly for gold [11][6] Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales are seeing an expanded decline, while used car sales are stabilizing; however, tourism consumption remains strong [2][3] - The average selling price of home appliances has shown mixed performance year-on-year, with some categories increasing and others decreasing [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - Export activities are slightly weakening, with a decrease in container shipping rates and a drop in scheduled container bookings from China to the US [5][4] - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces tariffs from 25% to 15%, which may influence trade dynamics in the region [6] Group 4: Production Insights - Steel prices continue to rise, supported by market sentiment and cost factors, with steel mill profitability improving [9][8] - The glass market is showing signs of improvement, although downstream demand remains weak, limiting price increases [10] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic pork wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, while prices for rebar and thermal coal continue to increase [11] - The average occupancy rate of hotels and the average daily rate per available room are both on the rise, indicating a robust tourism sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to reach new highs, driven by underlying factors such as U.S.-China competition, economic conditions, and central bank purchasing behavior [1][4][46]. Group 1: U.S.-China Competition and Global Dynamics - U.S.-China competition is a fundamental driver of the gold bull market, with the U.S. experiencing a relative decline in global standing, leading to a restructuring of the global order and increased uncertainty [1][4]. - The shift in global economic, technological, political, and military dynamics has accelerated the transformation of the international monetary system, contributing to a wave of de-dollarization [18][22]. - The U.S. military's strategic contraction has created regional power vacuums, resulting in increased local conflicts, which further drives demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [20][22]. Group 2: Economic Factors and Uncertainties - Economic fundamentals indicate that as the U.S. economy weakens, the demand for interest rate cuts will rise, potentially boosting gold prices [2][26]. - The ongoing expansion of U.S. debt is likely to lead central banks and investors to increase their gold purchases [26][29]. - Uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine will continue to support gold prices [27][29]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Central bank gold purchases have significantly increased, with global demand for gold reaching new highs, exceeding 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024 [22][35]. - The demand for gold ETFs has also risen, with global holdings surpassing 3,600 tons and showing a net inflow for 12 consecutive months [24][35]. - Despite high gold prices potentially dampening jewelry demand, the impact is limited as consumers adapt to new price levels [33][34]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The outlook for gold prices in the second half of the year remains optimistic, with expectations for prices to exceed $3,700 per ounce by year-end, driven by ongoing central bank purchases and potential interest rate cuts [3][46]. - Historical data suggests that investment and central bank purchases are the primary drivers of gold price movements, with geopolitical and economic factors influencing short-term volatility [41][43]. - The article emphasizes that the current environment of de-dollarization and increased geopolitical tensions will likely sustain upward pressure on gold prices [18][46].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around Elon Musk's decision to establish a new political party called the "America Party" in response to dissatisfaction with the current two-party system in the U.S. and the fiscal budget imbalance [1][4][29] - The America Party aims to promote a small government, fiscal conservatism, government technology reform, and liberal tendencies [4][29] - The establishment of a new party requires a clear official name, political platform, and state-level certification, which can be resource-intensive and challenging for third parties [6][7][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the historical context of third parties in the U.S., noting that the political landscape has become increasingly polarized, making it difficult for third parties to gain traction [2][21] - Third parties often serve to influence the main parties rather than directly winning power, as seen in historical examples where they have split votes or introduced new ideas that were later adopted by the major parties [21][24] - The challenges faced by third parties include the "winner-takes-all" electoral system, lack of funding, and insufficient media exposure, which hinder their ability to compete effectively [25][26] Group 3 - Public perception of Musk has shifted negatively, with a significant portion of the electorate expressing reluctance to support the America Party [3][27] - Musk's strategy focuses on participating in the upcoming midterm elections to secure a few key seats, targeting swing states and independent voters [29][31] - Musk's personal wealth and influence through social media may provide the America Party with resources and visibility that traditional third parties lack [31][32]

Global Asset Price Performance - Major global stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 0.6%, 0.3%, and 1.5% respectively compared to last week [1] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1 basis point, while the 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 2.6 basis points due to fiscal concerns [1] - Commodity prices saw a decline in gold and oil prices, while the U.S. dollar index appreciated by 0.6% against most currencies [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The next Federal Reserve chair candidate is under significant market scrutiny, especially after President Trump's comments about potentially firing Powell, which caused temporary market panic [3] - The selection process for the next Fed chair has begun, as stated by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering pausing interest rate cuts in July despite complications from U.S. tariff threats [3] U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. inflation showed a slight rebound, with June CPI year-on-year growth rising to 2.7% and core CPI increasing to 2.9% [9] - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations, driven mainly by a recovery in auto sales [9] - The July Beige Book indicated continued moderate growth in the U.S. economy, with consumer confidence slightly improving, although inflation expectations for the next year decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 4.4% [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 52.7, the highest in over three years, driven by progress in U.S.-EU tariff negotiations and government investment plans [17] - Japan's core CPI year-on-year growth slightly slowed to 3.4% in June, influenced by gasoline subsidies and temporary electricity fee reductions, remaining above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 39 consecutive months [18]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold and copper prices are experiencing fluctuations upward, while oil prices are on the rise [1] - The gold price has recently declined due to a rebound in June CPI data, a decrease in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, and a strengthening dollar index [12] - The prices of major commodities such as rebar and thermal coal continue to rise, while the price of cement is on a downward trend [11] Group 2: Consumer Market Analysis - New home sales are experiencing an expanded decline, while the sales of used cars are slightly recovering, and the average price of home appliances has mostly decreased year-on-year [3] - Service consumption shows a mixed performance, with a slight increase in foot traffic in commercial areas, but a decline in movie box office revenues [4] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles are declining, with wholesale sales increasing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Insights - Export activities are showing signs of weakness, with a decrease in the growth rate of departing ships' cargo weight and a decline in export container freight rates [6] - The shipping volume from China to the U.S. has increased, while U.S. retailers and wholesalers are experiencing a year-on-year decline in inventory levels [7][6] Group 4: Production Trends - The production of rebar is decreasing, and inventory levels are continuing to drop, leading to a rise in prices due to market sentiment and cost support [9] - High temperatures are increasing daily coal consumption at power plants, which is positively impacting market sentiment and leading to a rise in coal prices [10] Group 5: Price Movements - The article notes that the prices of various commodities have shown a decline recently, with specific mention of the continuous rise in domestic pork wholesale prices and the recovery of glass prices [11] - The article highlights the fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly the stability of copper and oil prices amidst geopolitical influences [12]

Core Viewpoint - Inflation has rebounded as June CPI year-on-year growth slightly increased to 2.7%, with core CPI rising to 2.9% [1][2][12] Inflation Components - Energy prices have shown a significant recovery, with the energy CPI year-on-year growth recorded at -0.8%, a substantial increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Gasoline prices saw a reduced decline of 3.7 percentage points to -8.3%, while electricity prices rose by 1.3 percentage points to 5.8% [4][12] - Core goods CPI year-on-year growth increased to 0.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising prices in furniture, clothing, and used cars, indicating that companies are passing tariff costs onto consumers [5][8] Service Inflation - Core service inflation remained stable, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month. Housing inflation was stable, with owner-equivalent rent growth at 4.2% and rent growth at 3.8% [9] Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations have decreased, with the one-year expectation dropping to 5%, a significant decline of 1.6 percentage points, while the five-year expectation fell to 4% [11] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index declined. The probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has slightly decreased, but the market still anticipates two rate cuts within the year, with the earliest expected in September [12][17]

Group 1: Core Views - Canada has established a comprehensive pension system based on a "four pillars" model, with the second pillar being the largest in scale [1][6][4] - The pension system includes a zero pillar (government-funded), first pillar (mandatory occupational pensions), second pillar (employer-sponsored pensions), and third pillar (private savings) [1][3][4] Group 2: Characteristics of the Canadian Pension System - The zero pillar provides basic income support for low-income seniors aged 65 and above, funded entirely by government revenue [9][11] - The first pillar consists of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and the Quebec Pension Plan (QPP), which are mandatory and funded through employee and employer contributions [12][26] - The second pillar is primarily employer-sponsored, including registered pension plans and group registered retirement savings plans [29][32] - The third pillar consists of voluntary private savings plans, such as registered retirement savings plans (RRSPs) and tax-free savings accounts (TFSAs) [34][35] Group 3: Investment Strategies of Canadian Pensions - The CPP invests in a diversified portfolio, with the highest allocation in fixed income (41%) and significant portions in equities (28%) and real estate (26%) [42][44] - The QPP focuses on equities and fixed income, with 27% in equities and 21% in credit investments [57] - The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (OTPP) allocates 29% to equities and 21% to fixed income, achieving a one-year net return of 9.4% [61] Group 4: Innovations in Pension Finance - Canadian pension funds are increasingly integrating ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria into their investment strategies, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 [62][67] - The CPP was the first pension fund to issue green bonds, with proceeds primarily directed towards renewable energy projects [65] - The Canadian government has implemented a national housing strategy to provide affordable housing for vulnerable groups, including seniors [69][71]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the postponement of reciprocal tariffs by Trump as a strategic move, highlighting the limited trade agreements with certain economies and the inability to bear the costs of comprehensive tariff increases [1][3]. Tariff Adjustments - The new tariff standards announced by Trump show significant increases for certain countries, with Mexico and Canada facing over 30% increases, Brazil's tariffs rising from 10% to 50%, and the EU's tariffs increasing from 20% to 30% [1][3]. - The average U.S. import tariff has risen by 5.6 percentage points to 28.9% since the initial version in April, with the most significant increases for Brazil, Canada, and Mexico [3][4]. Impact on Exports - The overall increase in U.S. import tariffs may shrink the total import "pie," potentially affecting China's export share, while higher tariffs from other countries could allow China to regain market share [4][10]. - Household appliances, light manufacturing, and electrical equipment are expected to benefit the most from the tariff changes, with a potential final tariff increase of only 10% for China [7][9]. Export Performance - China's export growth rate in June was recorded at 5.8%, a 1 percentage point increase from May, indicating strong export resilience [10][11]. - The increase in exports is attributed to the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, leading to a significant rebound in exports to the U.S. [10][11]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus expanded to $114.77 billion in June, continuing to grow, with future attention on the potential impacts of the second round of reciprocal tariffs [24].

Global Asset Performance - European stock markets led the gains, with the UK FTSE 100, Germany's DAX, and France's CAC rising by 1.3%, 2%, and 1.7% respectively [1] - In the US, the S&P 500 remained flat, the Dow Jones fell by 0.4%, and the Nasdaq increased by 0.1% [1] - Major bond yields mostly rose, with Japan's 10-year bond yield increasing by 16 basis points due to concerns over fiscal spending ahead of the Senate elections [1] - Commodity prices for gold and oil saw a decline, while the US dollar index rose by 0.9% against most currencies [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed a divergence in views among officials regarding interest rate outlooks, with some supporting a rate cut in July while others preferred to maintain current policies [4] - Market expectations for the Fed's rate cut path remained largely unchanged from the previous week [4] - President Trump exerted pressure on Fed Chairman Powell, claiming interest rates were too high and suggesting potential candidates for the next Fed chair [4] US Economic Dynamics - Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 227,000, indicating low layoffs and a stable labor market [13] - One-year inflation expectations slightly decreased to 3%, while three-year and five-year expectations remained stable at 3% and 2.6% respectively [13] - President Trump delayed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs until August 1, while announcing a 50% tariff on copper to boost key domestic industries [13] - The market reacted strongly to the copper tariff announcement, with COMEX copper futures rising over 12% on the day [13] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - Germany's industrial output rebounded by 1.2% in May, exceeding market expectations, driven by growth in the automotive and energy sectors [29] - Japan's wholesale price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in June, down from a revised 3.3% in May, indicating a slowdown in inflationary pressures [30]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - Gold is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, while copper and oil are anticipated to trend upwards [1][12] - The recent announcement of tariffs has led to a significant increase in copper prices, while concerns over supply have caused London copper prices to weaken [12] Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales have seen an expanded decline, while used car sales have slightly narrowed their drop; overall, the housing market is showing signs of cooling [2][3] - Service consumption during the summer has been robust, with increased foot traffic in commercial areas and rising hotel room rates [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - The extension of reciprocal tariffs has been announced, with potential tariffs of 15-20% on most economies [4][5] - Export activity may experience a slight downturn, with a decrease in shipping weight growth to the U.S. [7] Group 4: Production Insights - Production continues to exhibit seasonal characteristics, with high temperatures potentially improving electricity generation [8][10] - Steel production is declining due to increased maintenance schedules, while cement production is also down due to adverse weather conditions [9] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic pork wholesale prices have risen for two consecutive weeks, while prices for rebar and thermal coal continue to increase [11] - The overall trend in commodity prices has shown a decline, with fluctuations in various sectors [11][12]