核 心 观 点 随着俄乌缓和、欧洲万亿欧元军备及德国千亿欧元基建投资推进，铜增量需求不小。欧洲复兴对供需有何影 响？年内还有何超预期因素？铜价将如何变动？ 欧洲复兴，铜基本面有何影响？ 连接上下游的 精炼铜是观察铜产业的重要节点， 价格与供需缺口关系密 切。从 精炼铜的供需缺口 来看，自2010年以来，全球精炼铜呈现供不应求的态势，而2023年以来供给缺口缩 小，2024年出现近15年来的首次供过于求。LME铜价与精炼铜供需整体相关，供给存在缺口时，铜价上升， 供给过剩时，铜价下降。 供给端来看， 原生铜是精炼铜的主要供给来源，由铜矿冶炼而来，产量集中于高资 源禀赋国家，当前铜矿资源和品位持续萎缩，长、短期供给均偏紧。 此外，若俄乌冲突结束，若俄罗斯铜矿 产量恢复至冲突前水平，或上行1万吨，仅约2024年全球铜矿产量的0.04%。需求端来看， 增量集中在发展中 经济体中，主因其推进工业化、城镇化，仍需大力建设电力网络，而发达经济体已经跨越这一阶段，现有主要 需求是更新换代及维修。不过， 随着欧洲经济回暖、德国投资加码以及俄乌冲突有望结束，欧洲带来的边际 需求增量在1.5%左右。 年内还有哪些因素会超预期？ 短 ...

报 告 正 文 预计5月工业增加值同比增长6%。 5月全国制造业PMI回升至49.5%。主要分项指标中，产需双双回升，原材 料和出厂价格均有下行，库存原材料升、产成品降。从5月以来的中观高频数据来看，汽车半钢胎和全钢胎开 工率同比增速均有所下降。化工产业链开工率同比增速涨多跌少。六大发电集团耗煤同比增速有所回落。整体 来看，工业生产景气度保持平稳。我们预计，5月工业增加值同比增速降至6%。 预计5月固定资产投资累计同比增长3.9%。 4月固定资产投资累计同比增速下降至4%，具体来看三大类投资， 制造业投资和房地产投资累计同比增速有所下降，基建投资累计同比增速与上月相比基本持平。我们预计，5 月投资累计增速或保持稳定。 首先， 从基建相关的高频数据来看，钢材综合价格指数同比增速持续走低，沥 青开工率累计同比由负转正，预计基建投资累计增速保持平稳； 其次， 42城地产销量累计同比增速有所上 升，与房地产投资相关的浮法平板玻璃价格降幅有所收窄，预计房地产投资额累计降幅有所减小； 最后， 乘 联会乘用车批发和零售销量累计同比增速均有所放缓，预测制造业投资累计增速将有所下降。我们预计，5月 固定资产投资累计同比增速或略 ...

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 黄金区间震荡，铜、油震荡上行 内需： 房销量改善，而车小幅回落；服务消费表现分化。 ①新房销量增速升，二手房和乘用车降，家电月均销售价同比增速涨多跌少。5月新房销量增速降幅继续收窄，其中一二线级城市增速降幅略有走扩，三四线呈现 大幅收窄态势；而二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售小幅回落、而批发上升，半钢胎开工率维持稳定。本周家电销售均价多有回升，月均销售价同比 增速涨多跌少。 ②服务消费表现分化。上周电影票房有所改善，同比降幅收窄；四大一线城市至海口的机票价格续升；酒店每间可售房收入虽然有所下降，但同比增速上行。不 过，商圈人流指数续降，同比增速放缓。 外需： 抢出口接棒抢转口，美关税政策有所反复。 ①5月集装箱吞吐量和离港船只载重等出口数量指标有所回落，考虑到去年同期基数大幅抬升，预计出口增速将有所下行。 ②中国至美国港口集装箱预订量周同比继续回升，而传统转口贸易地区港口停靠量周同比大幅回落，指向抢出口接棒抢转口。 ③美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗普对等关税政策因越权而暂停生效，但后续又允许关税暂时继续生效，最终裁决情况未知，后续需关注最新进展。 ①化工链下游工厂投机性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national manufacturing PMI for May recorded at 49.5%, showing a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a near median level for the same period over the past five years [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply - Both demand and supply sides have improved, with external demand rebounding more strongly than internal demand. The new order index rose to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, while the new export order index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5% [6][12]. - The production index rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing production [6][10]. Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed significant growth in new orders, with indices above 52%. Consumer goods manufacturing also saw a stable increase, with new export orders rising over 6 percentage points into the expansion zone [1][8]. - However, some industries, such as textiles and non-ferrous metal processing, reported new order and production indices below the critical point, indicating insufficient release of production and demand [6][8]. Price Trends - The decline in price indices has narrowed significantly, with raw material prices and factory gate prices both decreasing by only 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. This indicates that the ability of companies to pass on costs has not yet recovered [10][12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index recorded at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point. The construction sector showed a business activity index of 51%, indicating ongoing expansion [12][13]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery driven by holiday consumption demand [13].

核 心 观 点 5月以来，随着政策利率下调，资金面进一步转松，但降准落地后资金利率反而上行。那么，6月政府债供给 多少？流动性缺口有多大？资金面将趋紧或者更松？ 宽松落地，市场利率怎么走？ 资金利率方面 ， 5月资金利率延续下行，从节奏来看，降准降息等一揽子金融 政策发布后，资金利率快速下行，而在5月15日降准落地后，资金面反而趋于收敛，资金利率中枢并未进一 步下行。 央行操作方面， 下旬开始逆回购转为小额净投放，同时MLF超额续作，月中落地的降准也向市场 投放1万亿元左右的流动性。 长债利率方面， 随着降准降息落地，长端利率演绎利好出尽的行情，此外，随 着关税政策缓和，市场对于基本面预期有所上修，债市有所走弱。 债券托管方面， 4月债券托管规模环比增 速放缓，分券种看，利率债托管环比增量收缩，其中地方债继续贡献主要增量；分机构看，广义基金增持规 模有所下降，商业银行托管规模环比增量扩大。 特别国债启动，供给压力多大？ 国债方面， 6月将发行6期附息国债、7期贴现国债和2只储蓄国债，此外， 还将续发3只超长期特别国债和新发1只中央金融机构注资特别国债，我们预计6月国债或将发行1.38万亿元， 净融资规模在49 ...

Core Viewpoint - In April 2025, industrial enterprises experienced a revenue decline of 2.6% while profits increased by 3%, indicating a recovery in profit margins despite a high base from the previous year [1][6]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue growth of industrial enterprises fell to 2.6% in April, primarily due to a high production level drop and increased price pressures [1][12]. - Profit growth for industrial enterprises rose to 3% in April, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with the growth rate exceeding the median of the past five years [1][6]. - The cost of goods sold per 100 yuan of revenue was 85.54 yuan, with expenses at 8.28 yuan, reflecting a decrease in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates [12]. Inventory and Operational Efficiency - The nominal inventory growth rate for industrial enterprises decreased to 3.9% in April, while the actual inventory growth rate remained stable at 6.8% after excluding price factors [4][13]. - The production and sales ratio for enterprises improved significantly, rising from historical lows to median levels, indicating a marginal improvement in operational pressure [3][13]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector, particularly high-tech manufacturing, saw a notable acceleration in profit growth, contributing 3.6 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth in the first four months of the year [3][9]. - High-tech manufacturing profits increased by 9% year-on-year in the first four months, with significant contributions from the semiconductor and smart product manufacturing sectors [3][9]. Future Outlook - The current external uncertainties pose risks to the stability of profit recovery, with expectations for further implementation of growth-stabilizing policies [1][3].

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 黄金区间震荡，铜、油震荡上行 内需： 房销量改善，而车回落；旅游市场不断修复。 ①新房销量增速升，二手房和乘用车降，家电月均销售价同比增速涨多跌少。5月新房销量增速降幅继续收窄，而二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售 回落、而批发上升，半钢胎开工率维持稳定。本周家电销售均价多有下行，月均销售价同比增速涨多跌少。 ②旅游市场边际改善。上周电影票房收入续降，商圈人流指数转降。不过，酒店入住率和每间可供租出客房价格双双回升，酒店每间可供租出客房营收同步增长， 同比增速转正。同时，一线城市至海口的航班均价上行，同比增速上行。 外需： 对美直接出口回升，美计划对欧征收50%关税。 ①中国至美国港口集装箱预订量周同比继续回升，美国从中国进口货物到港量周同比同样由降转升，指向对美直接出口大幅回升，抢出口支撑较强。 ②特朗普提出将于6月对欧征收50%关税，欧美贸易摩擦升级，或利好我国对欧出口，特别是机械行业。 生产： 终端施工需求偏弱，化工链延续价格涨势。 ①当前南方地区已逐步进入雨季，南方大范围降水有所增多，压制终端施工需求释放。本周钢铁价格转降，高炉开工率续降，产能利用率略降，样 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's monetary policy reform has been ongoing for nearly a year, transitioning towards a "price-based" adjustment mechanism while increasing the use of structural monetary policy tools. The article explores the innovations in the monetary policy framework, the actual usage of structural tools, and the changes in market interest rates [1][4][26]. Group 1: Changes in Monetary Policy Framework - The central bank has established a liquidity supply structure that includes pledged reverse repos for short-term liquidity, buyout reverse repos for medium-term liquidity, and MLF, reserve requirements, and secondary market purchases of government bonds for long-term liquidity [12]. - The process of interest rate liberalization has accelerated since 2013, with significant milestones including the introduction of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and the establishment of the interest rate corridor mechanism [4][6]. - A narrower "overnight-7 days" interest rate corridor has been implemented, allowing for more flexible monetary policy adjustments and a higher tolerance for upward interest rate fluctuations [6][8]. Group 2: Current Status of Structural Tools - The transmission of monetary policy is hindered by a lack of endogenous financing demand, with funds not converting into real investments and consumption due to economic structural transformation and internal circulation of funds within the banking system [2][13]. - The usage rates of structural monetary policy tools are low, with only a few tools exceeding a 50% usage rate, while many others, particularly those targeting real estate and transportation, are below 30% [18][19]. - The challenges in utilizing structural tools stem from industry development limitations and execution difficulties, as well as the cyclical nature of industries and declining relative advantages [19][23]. Group 3: Impact of Framework Adjustments on Interest Rates - The central bank is likely to separate the policy goals of narrow and broad liquidity, maintaining a balance that does not adversely affect real financing [26]. - Market interest rates have shown three types of inversion phenomena, including the inversion between 7-day and overnight rates, indicating a mismatch in the transmission of interest rates from short to long [29][31]. - The yield curve for government bonds has flattened, with short-term rates rising sharply due to tightening liquidity, while long-term rates remain constrained by economic fundamentals and expectations of interest rate cuts [33].

报 告 正 文 土地市场边 际回 暖 。 广义财政来看，1-4月广义财政收入、支出增速分别回升至-1.3%、7.2%，单独看4月当 月的表现，4月广义财政收入和支出增速较上月分别回升4.4、2.8个百分点至2.7%、12.9%。收入端来看，税收 收入延续修复以及土地市场有所回暖带动了收入端的改善；支出端来看，专项债发行保持较快速度，叠加特别 国债开启发行的背景下，广义财政积极发力的态势延续。 财政加码空间仍存。 从4月经济和财政数据来看，外部冲击下，经济增长具备一定韧性，尤其是生产端和消费 端，外需虽有回落但仍处较高水平。往后看，若关税变化下出口不确定性加大，并向通胀、就业等传导，财政 收支平衡或面临挑战，年内财政加码的空间仍然存在。 财政收入增速延续回升。 1-4月，全国一般公共预算收入8.06万亿元，同比增长-0.4%，低于0.1%的目标增 速，4月当月全国财政收入增速继续回升至1.9%。分项来看，中央收入同比增速由负转正至1.6%，地方收 入同比增速回落至2.1%；税收收入增速较上月回升4.1个百分点，由负转正至1.9%，非税收入增速延续放 缓至1.7%。从进度来看，今年前4个月公共财政收入的完成进度为 ...

核 心 观 点 不同于其他地区，中国香港并未建立由政府管理的传统养老金第一支柱，而是以强制性公积金计划为主的多支柱养老金体系，那么，中国香港养老金主要投 资于哪些资产？养老金融产品有何创新？ 以强积金为核心的养老金体系。 中国香港养老金采用世界银行提倡的多支柱模式，但三支柱的定位及结构有明显差异。 首先 ，中国香港并未建立由政府管理 的传统养老金第一支柱，特区政府仅为资产和收入低于标准的老年人提供基本生活保障，实行由政府负担、社会福利署推行的综合社会保障援助计划和公共福 利金计划； 其次 ，第二支柱职业养老金以强制性公积金计划为主，以职业退休计划为辅，此外，第二支柱还包括特定群体养老金计划； 最后 ，第三支柱为私 人自愿退休储蓄计划，主要包括香港年金计划、安老按揭计划、合资格延期年金、可扣税自愿性供款和银色债券等。 中国香港养老金都投些什么？ 中国香港养老金在投资策略上呈现"政府保障+市场主导+个人灵活"的特点， 首先 ，公共养老金的资金完全由政府预算资助，不 涉及市场化投资运营； 其次 ，第二支柱养老金计划中的强制性公积金计划配股比例最高，其次是债券，再次是存款及现金，参与者可自行选择股票基金、混 合基金、 ...