Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a shift in the labor market towards oversupply, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since the end of 2021, while the labor participation rate increased to 62.3% [2][5][14] - The U6 unemployment rate also rose by 0.2 percentage points, indicating increased difficulty for marginal labor to find employment, suggesting a cooling labor market overall [5][14] - Non-farm payroll additions decreased significantly in August, with only 22,000 new jobs created, and downward revisions of 21,000 jobs for June and July combined [2][14] Group 2 - The education and healthcare sector saw the largest decline in new jobs, losing 31,000 positions, while government and financial sectors also experienced notable job losses [4][5] - Job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.18 million in July, with a vacancy rate of 4.3%, indicating that labor supply exceeds demand, suggesting a potential turning point in the labor market [7][14] - Wage growth is slowing, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 3.7% year-over-year, reflecting a decline in workers' bargaining power [9][10] Group 3 - The market anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut rising to 12.2%, and expectations for 2.8 rate cuts within the year [14] - The actual wage growth, adjusted for inflation, was 1.2% year-over-year in July, indicating stable wage income growth despite the overall cooling labor market [16]

Global Asset Price Performance - US Treasury yields continue to decline, with the 10-year yield down by 3 basis points, reflecting ongoing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Global stock markets show mixed performance, with the S&P 500 up by 0.5%, the Dow Jones flat, and the Nasdaq down by 0.2%. The French CAC40 index fell by 3.3% due to rising political uncertainty [2] - Oil prices rebounded, with WTI and Brent crude oil increasing by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, while gold prices in London rose by 1.3% [2] - The US dollar index increased by 0.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with market expectations for this cut exceeding 85% [4] - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking a significant escalation in pressure on the Fed, with Cook filing a lawsuit claiming her dismissal was illegal [4] - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated no need for further rate cuts as inflation is at the 2% target and economic outlook remains stable [4] US Economic Dynamics - US durable goods orders fell by 2.8% in July, marking a second consecutive month of contraction, but the decline was less severe than the previous month's 9.4% drop. Core capital goods orders, excluding transportation, rebounded by 1%, the fastest growth in nearly three years [8] - The PCE price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year in July, with core PCE at 2.9%, the highest level since February [8] - The second revision of Q2 GDP showed a 0.3 percentage point increase, with investment slightly up and consumption remaining weak [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Political risks in France impacted markets, with Prime Minister Borne proposing a €44 billion austerity plan, leading to a potential government collapse and a spike in 10-year French government bond yields to 3.5% [19] - Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached 1.63%, the highest since October 2008, driven by concerns over new fiscal stimulus and persistent inflation [19]

Core Viewpoints - The US labor market is cooling down, with the three-month moving average of non-farm employment showing a downward trend, potentially nearing negative growth by October 2023 [2][5][6] - The quality of employment data has been questioned due to significant downward revisions in May and June data, with a total adjustment of 258,000 jobs [9][10] - The unemployment rate is on the rise, reflecting a broader cooling in the labor market, with a decrease in active job seekers and an increase in the duration of unemployment [10][11][30] Employment Sector Analysis - The education and healthcare sectors have been the main contributors to job creation, accounting for about half of non-farm employment from January to July 2024, supported by government funding [3][18] - Cyclical industries such as manufacturing and construction are experiencing a slowdown in job growth, with high interest rates limiting business operations and hiring plans [19][23] - The tightening labor market is evident in the information and professional services sectors, where job vacancy rates have increased, likely due to rising demand for AI-related positions [24] Future Labor Market Outlook - There is potential for marginal labor to return to the job market, with an increase in young job seekers aged 19-24, which may lead to higher unemployment rates if labor demand does not improve [25][30] - Small businesses remain cautious, with no improvement in hiring plans due to uncertainties in future policies and trade negotiations [28] - The labor market is at a turning point, with supply potentially exceeding demand, leading to a continued rise in the unemployment rate [30]

Global Asset Price Performance - US Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield down by 7 basis points, likely due to dovish comments from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting [2] - Major global stock markets saw mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increasing by 0.3% and 1.5% respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.6% [2] - Oil prices rebounded, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively, and gold prices increased by 1.1% [2] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Powell signaled a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating that the Fed may need to adjust its policy stance due to increased risks of employment downturn and reduced inflation risks [4] - The Fed's July meeting minutes suggested that officials believe interest rates are close to neutral, and maintaining the current stance is appropriate [4] - The Bank of Japan approved the first domestic yen stablecoin, JPYC, supporting financial technology innovation [4] US Economic Dynamics - The US housing market remains weak, with July new housing starts showing a year-on-year increase primarily due to a low base from the previous year [8] - The NAHB housing market index slightly decreased to 32, remaining in negative territory for 16 consecutive months [8] - The US has added 407 steel and aluminum products to its tariff list, with a 50% tax rate, which may increase procurement costs for downstream manufacturing companies [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone showed resilience with a 0.1% GDP growth in Q2 and a July CPI annual rate of 2%, aligning with the ECB's target [19] - Japan's long-term bond yields have risen, with the 20-year yield reaching 2.7%, the highest since 1999, driven by inflation expectations and concerns over fiscal expansion [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate interest rate cuts soon due to rising downside risks to employment and diminished upside risks to inflation, as indicated by Powell during the Jackson Hole meeting [2][3]. Employment and Inflation - Employment growth is slowing, indicating a decrease in job creation opportunities, while GDP growth has also decelerated in the first half of the year, leading to increased downside risks for employment [2]. - Inflation is approaching the Fed's target, with tariffs expected to have a gradual and uncertain impact on prices. There is a lack of sustained upward pressure on inflation due to downward pressure in the labor market, which reduces the likelihood of a wage-inflation spiral [3]. Monetary Policy Framework Changes - The Fed has revised its monetary policy framework to return to a flexible inflation targeting regime, allowing for adjustments without waiting for inflation to remain below 2% for an extended period. This change acknowledges the weakening labor supply and demand [6][7]. - The new framework removes references to the effective lower bound as a decisive economic characteristic, reflecting the current low interest rate environment and the potential for more frequent constraints on the federal funds rate [6]. - The Fed has shifted its view on maximum employment, now considering it as the highest level of employment that can be sustained in a context of price stability, rather than focusing on employment shortfalls [7]. Long-term Inflation and Employment Goals - The Fed maintains that a 2% inflation rate, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, is most consistent with its dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and price stability. Long-term inflation expectations should remain anchored at this level to enhance the Fed's ability to achieve maximum employment [8]. - The Fed's approach to monetary policy will balance the degree of deviation from its employment and inflation targets, considering the time required for both to return to target levels [8].

Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The Trump administration's tariff policy includes three types of tariffs: national tariffs, industry-specific tariffs, and tariffs to close loopholes in transshipment [5][7] - Four categories of countries are identified based on their trade relations with the US, with tariffs ranging from 10% to over 30% [7][8] - The new tariff system emphasizes additional conditions, such as commitments to invest in the US and open markets [8][9] Group 2: Impact on China and Industries - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs will lead to a decrease in US imports, which may cause a decline in China's export levels in the second half of the year [3][11] - If China manages to limit the cumulative tariff to 10%, its actual import share may rebound, while transshipment tariffs will lead to increased production capacity overseas [3][11] - Industries such as home appliances, light manufacturing, and power equipment are expected to benefit from the tariff changes [3][19] Group 3: Tariff Cost Burden - The effective import tariff rate in the US has reached its highest level since 1934, but the import price index has not shown a significant decline [32][35] - Exporters currently bear about 13% of the tariff costs, with US importers and consumers absorbing the majority [35][41] - The burden on consumers is expected to rise, with projections indicating that up to two-thirds of the tariff costs may eventually be passed on to them [51][53] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Inflation - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to be limited, with an estimated increase in inflation of only 0.4-0.8 percentage points by the end of the year [62][64] - The focus should shift from inflation concerns to potential job market deterioration, which may lead to unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [64]

Core Viewpoints - The pension system in Taiwan is characterized by significant occupational segmentation and treatment disparities, consisting of multiple pillars including a zero pillar for poverty alleviation and a third pillar primarily based on commercial insurance [2][6][11] Group 1: Structure of the Pension System - Taiwan's pension system is divided into four pillars: the first pillar includes social insurance pensions, the second pillar consists of occupational retirement funds, the zero pillar provides social allowances for low-income elderly, and the third pillar is based on commercial insurance [6][11] - The first pillar covers all eligible individuals, with contributions shared between individuals and the government, varying by occupation [8][11] - The second pillar does not cover unemployed individuals and includes various retirement funds for military, public education, private school teachers, and farmers [12][16] Group 2: Investment Allocation of Pensions - The first pillar's military insurance primarily invests in Taiwanese stocks and ETFs, with 39% allocated to stocks and 16% to bonds [25][30] - National pension funds prefer domestic stocks and beneficiary certificates, while labor insurance funds mainly invest in bonds and special stocks [30][34] - The second pillar's military and public education retirement funds allocate nearly half of their funds to bonds and stocks, with a significant portion managed by external institutions [38][44] Group 3: Characteristics of Pension Financial Products - Taiwan's long-term care service system has developed rapidly, with the Long-Term Care 2.0 plan expanding service targets and projects, integrating community resources [4][51] - The "small endowment insurance" product is designed for low-income elderly individuals, featuring low premiums and no medical examination requirements [4][58] - The long-term care plan includes various services for daily living assistance, professional training, and transportation for elderly individuals [55][56]

Global Asset Price Performance - Global long-term government bond yields have generally risen. Major global stock markets saw an increase this week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite rising by 0.9%, 1.7%, and 0.8% respectively, likely supported by stable interest rate cut expectations and a mild inflation rebound [2] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points, attributed to rising consumer inflation expectations in Michigan [2] - Oil prices declined this week, with the IEA predicting a slowdown in oil demand growth. Gold prices weakened, reaching a new low in the past two weeks. The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.4% this week [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Inflation remains stable, supporting interest rate cut expectations. Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding rate cuts, preferring to wait for more data before making decisions. U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the Fed is considering a 50 basis point cut in September [4] - The Bank of Japan is perceived to be slow in raising interest rates, with Japanese officials downplaying external political pressures on domestic monetary policy [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The July CPI year-on-year growth rate remained steady at 2.7%. Core services held steady, while energy and food prices cooled, countered by rising goods prices. The PPI year-on-year growth rate increased by 0.9 percentage points to 3.3%, with the largest month-on-month increase in three years [12] - Retail sales year-on-year growth decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. Core retail sales excluding automobiles saw a month-on-month growth of 0.3%. The Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 58.6, with one-year inflation expectations rising from 4.5% to 4.9% [14] - The imposition of tariffs on chips was noted, with Nvidia and AMD agreeing to pay 15% of their sales revenue from China to the U.S. government. Trump hinted at imposing chip tariffs potentially as high as 300% [14] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone industrial production showed a month-on-month decline of 1.3% in June, indicating a marginal weakening in industrial production, particularly in non-durable consumer goods and capital goods [26] - Japan's economy showed strong performance with a quarterly GDP growth of 0.3% and a year-on-year growth rate of 1%, driven by increased capital expenditure and strong exports [26]

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices in a fluctuating range, while copper and gold prices are expected to trend upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales growth rates have declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded; consumer electronics sales prices in August have shown a year-on-year decline [2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand housing sales increased but prices fell; the high base and hot weather contributed to a decrease in passenger vehicle sales growth, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales recovering [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance have decreased but remain at historically high levels; tourism consumption continues to rise, with hotel occupancy rates increasing and revenue per available room up compared to last year [2] External Demand - The extension of the US-China tariff exemption for three months has been announced, while shipping volumes from China to the US continue to decline [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a drop in CCFI shipping rates and a significant decrease in container throughput; however, the number of departing ships has increased [3] Production - The effects of capacity reduction are yet to be seen, with manufacturing employment reaching a new low [4] - Recent steel production has decreased due to maintenance and iron water transfer, while the profitability of sample steel mills has slightly declined but remains acceptable [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power generation groups has significantly increased, driving up coal prices [5] - The manufacturing employment index has increased month-on-month but shows a year-on-year decline, reaching a historical low [6] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices; domestic rebar prices have increased, while cement and thermal coal prices continue to rise, and glass prices have decreased [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the recognition and achievements of analysts in the financial sector, highlighting their contributions to macroeconomic research and investment analysis [1]. Group 1 - The article mentions that the analyst received the "2024 Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Elite Analyst" award, showcasing their expertise and reputation in the industry [1]. - It highlights the analyst's recognition as the "2022 Wind Gold Medal Analyst," indicating a strong performance in financial analysis [1]. - The analyst was awarded the "2022 CEIC and EMIS Outstanding Achievement Analyst," reflecting their significant contributions to economic research [1]. Group 2 - The article notes that the analyst was recognized as the "2021 Wind Best Roadshow Analyst," which underscores their effectiveness in presenting investment opportunities [1]. - It states that the analyst received the "2021 Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Best Analyst - Future Star" award, indicating potential for future growth and influence in the field [1]. - The analyst was also acknowledged as the "2021 CEIC and EMIS Outstanding Achievement Analyst," further solidifying their standing in the macroeconomic research community [1]. Group 3 - The article mentions that the analyst was ranked third in the "2020 New Fortune Best Analyst Macro Team," showcasing their team's strong performance in macroeconomic analysis [1].