Core Viewpoint - The April economic data indicates a mixed performance in China's economy, with strong industrial production and consumption, but a decline in investment and real estate sectors [1][13]. Demand Side - April's external demand faced challenges due to reciprocal tariffs, leading to a significant drop in exports to the US; however, transshipment trade helped maintain export resilience [1][2]. - Internal demand showed a decline in both investment and consumption, although consumption remained at a high level; investment was dragged down by the real estate and manufacturing sectors [1][7]. Production Side - Industrial production maintained a high level, with April's industrial value-added growth rate dropping to 6.1%, supported by equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [3][5]. - The service sector's production index slightly decreased, but still benefited from low base effects and consumption recovery [3]. Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment growth rate fell by 0.8 percentage points to 3.5%, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [7]. - High-tech industry investments performed well, particularly in information services and computer manufacturing, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.6% and 28.9% respectively [7]. Consumption Patterns - Retail sales growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 5.1%, while service retail sales showed an upward trend, particularly in tourism-related sectors [9]. - Essential consumer goods saw a decline in growth, while sectors benefiting from trade-in programs performed strongly [9]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth rate worsened to -2.1%, with new construction area also declining significantly [11]. - Despite the drop in sales volume, housing prices continued to rise, with the decline in new and second-hand housing prices narrowing [11]. Employment and External Factors - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, indicating a steady employment situation despite external challenges [13]. - Future export performance may exceed expectations due to potential European recovery, although this could lead to a more cautious domestic policy response [13].

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 黄金区间震荡，铜、油震荡上行。 内需： 房销量改善，而车回落；服务消费同比多边际改善。 ① 新房销量增速升，二手房和乘用车降，家电销售均价多有上行。5月新房销量增速降幅继续收窄，而二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售回落、而批 发上升，半钢胎开工率大幅回升至正常区间。家电月均销售均价同比增速上行。 ② 节后服务消费需求下降，但同比多有改善。上周电影票房收入下降，但同比降幅收窄；酒店每间可售房均价下降，但较去年水平同期略高；商圈人流指数略升， 同比增速上行。 外需： 中美关税超预期下调，对美直接出口回升。 ① 本周中美关税水平超预期下调，其中对等关税涉及的税率，当下实际征收10%，剩下24%的关税暂停实施。关税回落导致转口贸易逆转，东南亚港口停靠量同比 转弱；美国自中国进口货物到港量同比转升，指向对美直接出口回升。 ②考虑到特朗普贸易政策朝令夕改，其暂停的24%关税后续仍可能继续征收，当下抢出口行为仍将持续，并支撑我国出口。 生产： 贸易谈判取得实质性进展，市场情绪有所提振。 ① 钢铁方面，本周贸易谈判新进展提振市场情绪，叠加部分钢厂调高出厂价格，本周高炉开工率有所下降 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant changes in global trade patterns due to reciprocal tariff policies, highlighting the shrinking import demand from the US and the potential for the EU to offset this decline for China [1][4][10] - The EU is identified as a major market for China's exports, with its economic recovery and potential end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict expected to generate increased demand for Chinese goods [2][10] - The actual demand from the EU is underestimated, with both the US and China having similar import dependency, while the EU's demand for Chinese products is substantial, potentially increasing if EU imports from the US decline [6][9][10] Group 2 - The EU's economic recovery is projected to boost China's exports, with estimates suggesting that a 2% GDP growth in the EU could increase China's total exports by over 1% [13][10] - The article provides a detailed analysis of the relationship between EU GDP growth and import demand, indicating that as the EU economy recovers, its import demand will become more elastic [10][13] - The trade dynamics between the EU and China are shifting, with the EU's imports from China potentially increasing as its imports from the US decrease due to tariff impacts [10][14] Group 3 - The mechanical and electronic sectors are expected to benefit the most from the EU's economic recovery, with high dependency on imports from China in these industries [3][25] - Specific industries such as consumer electronics, computers, and general machinery are highlighted as having significant export exposure to the EU [17][20] - The reconstruction efforts in Germany and Ukraine are anticipated to create additional demand for machinery and electronic products from China [20][25] Group 4 - Long-term challenges and opportunities in Sino-EU trade are discussed, with potential competition arising from the EU's recovery and supply chain restructuring [26][30] - The article notes that while there are opportunities in the chemical sector due to complementary trade dynamics, there may be competitive pressures in electronics and machinery as the EU enhances its domestic capabilities [28][30] - Recent EU regulations aimed at reducing dependency on Chinese imports could pose challenges for Chinese exports in electronics and transportation equipment [32][33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of tariff policies on corporate financing and investment, indicating a mixed performance in credit growth and financing demand in April 2025 [1][2][3] - In April 2025, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, primarily supported by government bonds, discounted bills, and corporate bonds [3][7] - The net financing scale of government bonds in April decreased to 972.9 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the social financing increment [3][7] Group 2 - The willingness of residents to expand their balance sheets has not shown significant improvement, indicating that boosting domestic demand will remain a key focus of future macroeconomic policies [2][8] - In April, the total amount of new RMB loans was 280 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion yuan, with notable reductions in both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for residents [8] - The M2 growth rate rebounded by 1 percentage point to 8% in April, influenced by a low base effect from the previous year, while M1 growth slightly declined [7][8]

报 告 正 文 通胀预期进一步抬升 。4月密歇根消费者1年通胀预期升至6.5%，较上月上行1.5个百分点，创2023年11月以来 新高，而5年通胀预期进一步升至4.4%。根据密歇根大学调查，由于特朗普关税政策具有高度不确定性，引发 消费者对未来物价水平的担忧，通胀预期指标飙升。 降息时点或有推迟 。通胀数据公布后，美股三大指数上涨，美债收益率下降，而美元指数略有下降。数 据公布前，中美对等关税政策取得进展，对等关税被大幅下调。但在美国与英国和中国的谈判中，10%的 普适对等关税未被取消，或意味着10%的美国全面进口关税仍将加征，关税仍将推高美国企业进口成本， 使得通胀上行，并拖累经济表现。4月通胀继续降温， 一方面 ，住房通胀回落正在逐渐反映在CPI中，油 价短期内或保持低位震荡，核心服务和能源项通胀或仍趋于回落。 另一方面 ，关税尚未完全显现在通胀 中，一季度企业抢进口、囤库存，关税传导或仍需一定时间。 我们认为，在高利率限制下，经济仍在降 温，通胀趋于下降。随着关税导致的美国经济恶化逐步显现，美联储年内仍将降息，但重启降息时点或有 所推迟 。 通胀降温趋势未改 。4月CPI同比增速略有回落至2.3%，为2 ...

报 告 正 文 关税下调大超预期，当下加征多少？ 根据联合声明的内容，美国对我国征收的125%对等关税，幅度降至初始的34%。其中10%的基础关税与其 他国家一样征收，剩下24%的关税在90天内暂停实施，等待后续谈判。由于此前美方已经豁免了超2成中国商品的对等关税，则实际关税下降幅 度会更少一些。 当下我国对美总出口关税水平约41%，包括截至去年底的11%实际关税，今年2-3月因芬太尼问题加征的20%，以及最新对等关税的10%。如果 考虑美国额外豁免的部分商品，则整体关税水平降至38%。 直接出口代替转口，抢出口或仍持续。 由于我国与他国，对美出口关税差额将大幅缩小，则转口贸易规模或出现逆转，贸易流将转换为直接对 美出口。同时考虑到特朗普贸易政策多变，其暂停的24%关税后续仍可能继续征收，那么抢出口行为仍将持续，并支撑我国出口。 年内看好出口，国内有何影响？ 年内我们看好出口，一方面，对等关税加征幅度回落，利好直接对美出口；另一方面，俄乌冲突缓和，欧洲经 济重铸也将进一步拉动我国出口，我们在《欧洲振兴，如何带动我国出口？——掘金欧洲系列之二》已外发报告中测算，欧洲振兴或至少拉动 我国出口1个百分点。不过，外部 ...

核 心 观 点 关税对就业到底有多大影响？ 我们预计 我 国出口 带动的 总 就业人数在 1.2 亿人左右。不过， 出口的经济占比明显高于就业占比， 可能的 原因是我国劳 动生产率不断提高、产业结构不断转型升级、就业渠道不断丰富等。当前除部分被豁免商品外，美国对我国已额外加征了 125% 的关税，但是我们认为这种 超高关税较难持续，因此采用额外加征 34% 的税率进行测算。 关税政策或将减少 0.9%-1.4% 的就业 ，对应人数在 668.4 和 995.7 万人之间，短期实际 的影响可能更小。 从行业角度看， 皮革制鞋、木材家具和电子行业的对美营收敞口较大；纺织服饰、皮革制鞋和纺织业的劳动生产率最低。综合来看， 皮革 制鞋、木材家具和纺织纺服行业的就业受影响最大 。 我国就业环境有何变化？ 需求端来看：一二产就业吸纳收紧，而三产提升缓慢。 总量 方面， GDP 增速下台阶会导致失业率上升，我国经济增长中枢较疫情 前有所回落。 结构方面， 我国经济由外循环转向内循环，但外循环拉动就业更多。 产业方面， 第一、第二产业富余劳动力或将流向第三产业。第三产就业 上升，但比重仍低，主因第三产业发展存在一定前提，经济 ...

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 原油上升，金、铜震荡上行。 内需： 房、车销售回升，假期出游热电影淡。 ① 新房、乘用车销量增速升，二手房降，家电销售均价增速上行。5月新房销量增速降幅收窄，但二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售、批发增速均有 回升，但受成本抬升，需求预期悲观等因素影响，半钢胎开工率超季节性回落；家电月均销售均价同比增速上行。五一假期家电价格多有回升。 ② 假期出游热度高涨，假期国内出游人次同比增长6.4%，出游总花费同比增长8.0%，纳入监测范围的国家级夜间文化和旅游消费集聚区累计夜间客流量7595.44万 人次，同比增长5.2%。 不过，电影市场表现惨淡，五一档票房收入不到7.5亿元，同比去年同期下降45.9%。 外需： 对美出口量继续下行，但抢转口仍有支撑。 ① 港口高频数据显示，美国总进口、自中国进口货物到港量增速均大幅下滑，指向对美出口量有所减少。而东南亚地区港口停靠量大幅上升，反映抢转口仍在继 续。 ②美国正式对全球关键汽车零部件加征25%的关税，中美经贸谈判将于周末开始，关注会后通报结果。 生产： 节后库存阶段性累积，开工有所放缓。 ① 受部分钢厂铁水转移和检修减产影响 ...

Core Viewpoint - The primary focus of the current macroeconomic policy is to expand domestic demand, with a particular emphasis on boosting consumption as a key driver of economic growth [2][12]. Summary by Sections Loan Rates and Monetary Policy - In Q1 2025, the loan interest rates from financial institutions increased by 16 basis points to 3.44% compared to Q4 2024. Specifically, general loan rates decreased by 7 basis points to 3.75%, while bill rates surged by 53 basis points to 1.55%, and mortgage rates rose by 4 basis points to 3.13% [1]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The report highlights that expanding domestic demand is the foremost task of macroeconomic policy, with consumption being crucial. The central bank emphasizes the importance of consumption in driving economic growth and proposes various financial measures to support it. It also notes the persistent imbalance between strong supply and weak demand in the real economy, with major price indicators remaining low [2]. Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The central bank compares the government debt situations of China, the US, and Japan, indicating that China's total government assets are equivalent to 166% of GDP, while total liabilities are 75% of GDP, resulting in a net asset ratio of 91%. This asset backing provides room for debt expansion. The report mentions increased fiscal support and accelerated issuance of special bonds, which creates space for future incremental debt policies [5]. Bond Market Risks - The report discusses the volatility in government bond yields and the associated risks in the bond market. It notes that large state-owned banks hold a significant amount of bonds, primarily for maturity, while smaller financial institutions engage in more trading, which poses risks. The central bank encourages larger banks to increase bond trading to maintain supply-demand balance and reasonable pricing [6][8]. Transition to Price-Based Regulation - The central bank continues to shift towards price-based regulation, with a focus on maintaining liquidity through various monetary policy tools. The report outlines changes in the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and emphasizes the importance of managing expectations and enhancing certainty in monetary policy [10]. Economic Outlook and External Factors - The report expresses concerns about external economic pressures, including trade and inflation risks. It highlights the need for robust domestic demand and mentions that while the economic foundation is solid, uncertainties in the external environment remain significant [12][14]. Future Policy Directions - The report indicates that future monetary policy will focus on increasing support for the real economy, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, and on boosting consumption. It also suggests that deposit rates may have room for reduction as part of a broader strategy to lower financing costs [13][16].

报 告 正 文 CPI 环比 超季节性回升， PPI 同比降幅再走扩。 CPI 方面， 4 月 CPI 环比由降转涨，超出季节性，但由于受 到国际油价的拖累， CPI 同比降幅持平上月。核心 CPI 环比由平转涨，同比涨幅持平上月。 PPI 方面， 受到 输入性因素和国内需求暂弱影响， 4 月 PPI 环比降幅持平上月，同比降幅走扩 0.2 个百分点。 CPI 环比上涨主要由食品和出行拉动。 4 月 CPI 环比增速录得 0.1% ，较上月回升 0.5 个百分点，食品和出 行是带动 CPI 环比回升的主要动力。食品方面，食品价格环比上涨 0.2% ，高于季节性水平 1.4 个百分点， 创下历年同期次高。其中，鲜菜和猪肉价格降幅均小于季节性。服务方面，需求回暖和假日因素影响下，机 票、交通工具租赁、宾馆住宿等价格涨幅均高于季节性。其次，国际金价波动带动国内金饰品价格有所上涨。 CPI 同比下降主因国际油价同比降幅走扩，扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 上涨 0.5% ，涨幅持平上月。 国际输入性因素和国内需求暂弱继续拖累 PPI 。 4 月 PPI 环比降幅持平上月，同比降幅再走扩，一是国际原 油价格下行，二是 ...