Core Viewpoints - Fiscal expansion will shift focus from scale to efficiency, emphasizing structural improvements and effectiveness in 2026, with debt instruments enhancing collaboration to amplify multiplier effects [2][9][12] - Monetary policy will prioritize coordination with fiscal measures, maintaining stable interest rates during periods of government leverage slowdown, with a focus on managing debt risks and other long-term variables [2][15][18] Expanding Domestic Demand - Broad fiscal expansion aims to stabilize investment, with a focus on utilizing new special bonds for "new infrastructure" and "green infrastructure" to promote investment recovery [21][23] - Subsidy policies will be optimized to enhance consumption, with a shift towards nationwide standardized subsidies and a focus on supporting quality service supply [26][27][28] Addressing Overcapacity - The core of addressing overcapacity involves curbing unreasonable incremental capacity expansion and cleaning up overdue payments to alleviate corporate burdens [30][31] New Growth Drivers - Emphasis on bridging gaps in the technology service sector, with a focus on converting technological advantages into competitive advantages in industries [32][33] - The integration of artificial intelligence with manufacturing is highlighted as a key direction for growth, opening new markets and enhancing manufacturing capabilities [33][34] Trade Structure Adjustment - Export structures need adjustment, with a focus on optimizing supply chain layouts to mitigate external shocks, encouraging service exports to enhance resilience against external policy uncertainties [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a macroeconomic calendar for 2026, detailing important economic data releases and meetings that could impact market conditions and investment strategies [1]. Domestic Data - PMI data is scheduled for release on January 31, February 4, March 31, April 30, May 31, June 30, July 31, August 31, September 30, October 31, November 30, and December 31 [1]. - Foreign trade data will be released on March 14, February 10, February 14, June 9, February 9, February 14, and December 10 [1]. - Financial data is expected to be published between 16:00 and 19:00 on January 12, February 13, March 13, April 13, May 12, June 12, July 13, August 14, September 11, October 12, November 13, and December 11 [1]. - Price data will be available on January 9:30, February 11, March 9, April 10, May 11, June 10, July 9, August 9, September 14, October 9, November 9, and December 9 [1]. - Industrial enterprise profit data is set for release on January 9:30, February 271, March 271, April 271, May 271, June 271, July 271, August 271, September 271, October 271, November 271, and December 271 [1]. Overseas Data - U.S. non-farm employment data will be released on the 9th of each month from January to December [1]. - U.S. CPI data is scheduled for January 13, February 11, March 11, April 10, May 12, June 10, July 14, August 12, September 11, October 14, November 10, and December 10 [1]. - U.S. GDP data will be published on April 29, with no specific dates for other months [1]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is set for April 29, September 19, and June 30 [1]. - The European Central Bank's interest rate meeting is scheduled for April 5, April 19, and April 30 [1]. Important Meetings - The Central Economic Work Conference will take place in mid-December [1]. - The Political Bureau meeting focused on economic research is expected at the end of each month [1]. - The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference is scheduled for April 24-27 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a macroeconomic calendar for 2026, detailing important economic data releases and meetings that could impact market conditions and investment strategies [1]. Domestic Data - PMI data is scheduled for release on January 31, February 4, March 31, April 30, May 31, June 30, July 31, August 31, September 30, October 31, November 30, and December 31 [1]. - Foreign trade data will be released on March 14, February 10, February 14, June 9, February 14, and December 10 [1]. - Financial data is expected to be published between 16:00 and 19:00 on January 12, February 13, March 13, April 13, May 12, June 12, July 13, August 14, September 11, October 12, November 13, and December 11 [1]. - Price data will be available on January 9:30, February 11, March 9, April 10, May 11, June 10, July 9, August 9, September 14, October 9, November 9, and December 9 [1]. - Industrial enterprise profit data is set for release on January 9:30, February 271, March 271, April 271, May 271, June 271, July 271, August 271, September 271, October 271, November 271, and December 271 [1]. Overseas Data - U.S. non-farm employment data will be released on January 9, February 6, March 6, April 3, May 8, June 5, July 2, August 4, September 21, October 6, November 4, and December 4 [1]. - U.S. CPI data is scheduled for January 13, February 11, March 11, April 10, May 12, June 10, July 14, August 12, September 11, October 14, November 10, and December 10 [1]. - U.S. GDP data will be available on April 29, with no specific dates for other months [1]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is set for April 29, September 19, and November 1 [1]. Important Meetings - The Central Economic Work Conference is expected to occur in mid-December [1]. - The Political Bureau meeting focused on economic research is scheduled for the end of each month [1]. - The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference will take place from April 24 to April 27 [1].

Group 1 - The national manufacturing PMI significantly rebounded to 50.1% in December, marking the first time since April that it entered the expansion zone, with a 0.9 percentage point increase from the previous month [3][4] - Key contributing factors to the PMI increase include rising new orders and production indices, while the employment index declined and the supplier delivery time index increased [3][4] - The recovery in production and demand is synchronized, with domestic demand strengthening relative to external demand, leading to an accumulation of inventory on the demand side and a recovery in downstream profits [2][4] Group 2 - The new export orders index rose significantly after the US-China trade talks in late October, with a cumulative increase of over 3.1 percentage points in November and December, indicating a recovery in external demand [4] - The manufacturing production index reached 51.7% in December, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, driven by improved external demand [4] - The manufacturing purchase price index fell to 53.1%, while the factory price index rose to 48.9%, indicating a potential improvement in profit distribution for downstream businesses [8] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.2%, with the construction sector showing a notable recovery, while the service sector remained slightly below the expansion threshold at 49.7% [7][10] - The construction business activity index increased by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, reversing a four-month decline, with new orders in construction reaching a year-high [7] - The service industry business activity expectation index rose to 56.4%, reflecting positive market expectations despite current low activity levels in retail and dining sectors [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the author's journey in macroeconomic research over the past decade, emphasizing the importance of adapting research methodologies to current market conditions and the evolving economic landscape [5][10]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The author predicts a weakening of the US dollar, driven by a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy towards a more accommodative stance, which is expected to exceed market expectations [7]. - The article discusses the rise of gold as a significant asset, highlighting the author's research on the changing dynamics of gold pricing and central bank purchases, which filled a gap in market research [7][8]. - The author notes that the traditional macroeconomic frameworks need to be revised to better reflect the realities of the new economic phase, particularly in light of the limitations of GDP as a growth measure [14]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The article anticipates a stable macroeconomic environment in the coming year, suggesting that while the economy may remain steady, the stock market may not necessarily mirror economic trends due to structural changes brought about by new economic factors [14][15]. - The author highlights the role of liquidity in driving stock prices, indicating that a favorable global liquidity environment, influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies, could support a bullish market trend [15]. - The article suggests that various asset classes, including stocks and bonds, may experience a phase of resonance in the upcoming year, driven by the recovery and expansion of balance sheets across economic sectors [15].

报 告 正 文 1.全球资产价格表现 股市普遍上行。 股市方面 ，本周全球主要股市普遍上涨。美股三大指数来看，本周标普500、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别上涨3.7%、3.2%和4.9%。 债市 方面， 海外主要市场债市收益率分化，10年期美债收益率下跌4bp。 商品方面， 原油价格震荡，WTI原油下跌0.6%，布伦特原油上涨0.1%，本周伦敦金价上 涨3.8%。 汇率方面， 美元指数下跌0.7%。 | 全球股市 | 周涨跌幅(%) | 月 涨跌幅(%) | 全球债市 | 周涨跌幅(bp) | 月沸跌幅(bp) | 全球汇市 | 周涨跌幅(%) | 月 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标普500 | 3.7 | 0.1 | 美国国债收益率:2年 | -4.0 | -13.0 | 美元指数 | -0.7 | 1.8 | | 道琼斯 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 美国国债收益率:10年 | -4.0 | -11.0 | 美元兑离岸人民币 | -0.6 | -0.8 | | 纳斯达克 | 4.9 | -1.5 | 中 ...

Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets experienced a general decline, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices falling by 1.9%, 1.9%, and 2.7% respectively this week [2][3] - In the bond market, major overseas markets saw a decrease in yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping by 8 basis points [2][3] - Commodity prices showed volatility, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.5% while Brent crude oil fell by 0.3%, and London gold prices decreased by 0.4% [2][3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.9% [2][3] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve's stance on a potential rate cut in December remains uncertain, with mixed opinions among officials regarding the necessity of a 25 basis point cut [4] - Some officials express caution about further rate cuts due to concerns over inflation, while others see the possibility of a cut if economic data aligns with expectations [4] - The European Central Bank is considering reassessing its interest rate path in response to potential risks to financial stability and inflation from stablecoin market dynamics [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. labor market showed signs of stabilization in September, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, although previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 33,000 [8] - Job growth was primarily supported by the education, healthcare, and leisure sectors, while government employment may decline significantly due to federal employees leaving [8] - Housing demand in the U.S. is recovering, with existing home sales rising to an annualized total of 4.1 million in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone inflation showed signs of cooling, with the October CPI year-on-year growth rate at 2.1%, marking a second consecutive month of decline [12] - Germany's government announced an industrial revitalization plan, including electricity price subsidies and a fund to support small and medium enterprises, aiming to enhance global competitiveness [12] - Japan's government approved a substantial economic stimulus package totaling 21.3 trillion yen, which includes fiscal spending and tax cuts [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a stabilization in the labor market, with non-farm employment increasing by 119,000 in September, although previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 33,000 [2][18] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, primarily due to an increase in the labor participation rate, indicating more individuals are re-entering the workforce [7][18] - The report indicates that the labor supply is exceeding demand, with job vacancies rising to 7.23 million, leading to a labor market that is gradually shifting towards oversupply [9][18] Group 2 - Employment growth in September was mainly supported by the education, healthcare, and leisure sectors, with government and construction jobs seeing the largest increases [4][18] - Wage growth has shown signs of slowing, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 0.2% month-over-month and remaining stable at 3.8% year-over-year [11][18] - The construction and education/healthcare sectors experienced the most significant declines in wage growth, each decreasing by approximately 0.4 percentage points [13][18] Group 3 - The actual wage growth, adjusted for inflation, saw a slight decline, with real hourly earnings increasing by 0.7% year-over-year in August, down by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [16][18] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts in December has become more uncertain, as this report serves as the last employment data before the December FOMC meeting [18]

Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices have rebounded, while global stock markets showed mixed results this week. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq index fell by 0.5% [2][3] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets generally rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining flat compared to last week [2] - Commodity prices saw a decline in crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping by 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively, while London gold prices increased by 2.1% [2] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.3% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Federal Reserve officials are leaning towards pausing interest rate cuts in December, citing concerns that further cuts could exacerbate inflation pressures [5] - European Central Bank officials indicated that inflation risks in the Eurozone are skewed to the upside due to increased government spending on military and infrastructure as the economy accelerates [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. government has reopened after a 43-day shutdown, with key economic data set to be released soon. However, some data from October may be permanently lost, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making for December [9] - The NFIB small business optimism index fell to 98.2, the lowest in six months, indicating challenges in sales and profit margins, as well as difficulties in finding qualified employees [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index dropped to -7.4, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the economy and concerns over high fiscal debt limiting policy options [18] - The UK's unemployment rate rose to 5% in September, leading to increased pressure on the government and the Bank of England to consider tax cuts and interest rate reductions [18]

Global Asset Price Performance - Global commodity prices have declined, with major stock markets showing mixed results; the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell by 1.6%, 1.2%, and 3% respectively this week [2][3] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets mostly increased, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining stable compared to last week [2] - Oil prices decreased, with WTI and Brent crude oil falling by 1.9% and 2.5% respectively, while London gold prices dropped by 0.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing divisions regarding interest rate cuts, particularly due to the government shutdown affecting key inflation data; some officials advocate for a cautious approach while others see inflation as a more pressing concern [5] - The European Central Bank announced that Bulgaria will adopt the euro on January 1, 2026, with the central bank governor gaining voting rights on the governing council [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. Supreme Court is questioning the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could lead to the potential reversal of $100 billion in tariff revenue [9] - Recent local elections indicate a resurgence for the Democratic Party, with victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City [9] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined to 50.3, close to historical lows, due to the ongoing government shutdown and its negative impacts [10] - The liquidity situation in the U.S. is tightening, with the SOFR rate spiking to 4.22% and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction potentially exacerbating the funding shortage [10] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization with an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, although layoffs in certain sectors remain a concern [11] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.1% in September, driven by weak demand for fuel and non-food items, while food and beverage sales remained stable [18] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI held steady at 50%, indicating slight recovery, but new export orders and employment levels continue to decline [18]