Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The Trump administration's tariff policy includes three types of tariffs: national tariffs, industry-specific tariffs, and tariffs to close loopholes in transshipment [5][7] - Four categories of countries are identified based on their trade relations with the US, with tariffs ranging from 10% to over 30% [7][8] - The new tariff system emphasizes additional conditions, such as commitments to invest in the US and open markets [8][9] Group 2: Impact on China and Industries - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs will lead to a decrease in US imports, which may cause a decline in China's export levels in the second half of the year [3][11] - If China manages to limit the cumulative tariff to 10%, its actual import share may rebound, while transshipment tariffs will lead to increased production capacity overseas [3][11] - Industries such as home appliances, light manufacturing, and power equipment are expected to benefit from the tariff changes [3][19] Group 3: Tariff Cost Burden - The effective import tariff rate in the US has reached its highest level since 1934, but the import price index has not shown a significant decline [32][35] - Exporters currently bear about 13% of the tariff costs, with US importers and consumers absorbing the majority [35][41] - The burden on consumers is expected to rise, with projections indicating that up to two-thirds of the tariff costs may eventually be passed on to them [51][53] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Inflation - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to be limited, with an estimated increase in inflation of only 0.4-0.8 percentage points by the end of the year [62][64] - The focus should shift from inflation concerns to potential job market deterioration, which may lead to unexpected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [64]

Core Viewpoints - The pension system in Taiwan is characterized by significant occupational segmentation and treatment disparities, consisting of multiple pillars including a zero pillar for poverty alleviation and a third pillar primarily based on commercial insurance [2][6][11] Group 1: Structure of the Pension System - Taiwan's pension system is divided into four pillars: the first pillar includes social insurance pensions, the second pillar consists of occupational retirement funds, the zero pillar provides social allowances for low-income elderly, and the third pillar is based on commercial insurance [6][11] - The first pillar covers all eligible individuals, with contributions shared between individuals and the government, varying by occupation [8][11] - The second pillar does not cover unemployed individuals and includes various retirement funds for military, public education, private school teachers, and farmers [12][16] Group 2: Investment Allocation of Pensions - The first pillar's military insurance primarily invests in Taiwanese stocks and ETFs, with 39% allocated to stocks and 16% to bonds [25][30] - National pension funds prefer domestic stocks and beneficiary certificates, while labor insurance funds mainly invest in bonds and special stocks [30][34] - The second pillar's military and public education retirement funds allocate nearly half of their funds to bonds and stocks, with a significant portion managed by external institutions [38][44] Group 3: Characteristics of Pension Financial Products - Taiwan's long-term care service system has developed rapidly, with the Long-Term Care 2.0 plan expanding service targets and projects, integrating community resources [4][51] - The "small endowment insurance" product is designed for low-income elderly individuals, featuring low premiums and no medical examination requirements [4][58] - The long-term care plan includes various services for daily living assistance, professional training, and transportation for elderly individuals [55][56]

Global Asset Price Performance - Global long-term government bond yields have generally risen. Major global stock markets saw an increase this week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite rising by 0.9%, 1.7%, and 0.8% respectively, likely supported by stable interest rate cut expectations and a mild inflation rebound [2] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points, attributed to rising consumer inflation expectations in Michigan [2] - Oil prices declined this week, with the IEA predicting a slowdown in oil demand growth. Gold prices weakened, reaching a new low in the past two weeks. The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.4% this week [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Inflation remains stable, supporting interest rate cut expectations. Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding rate cuts, preferring to wait for more data before making decisions. U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the Fed is considering a 50 basis point cut in September [4] - The Bank of Japan is perceived to be slow in raising interest rates, with Japanese officials downplaying external political pressures on domestic monetary policy [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The July CPI year-on-year growth rate remained steady at 2.7%. Core services held steady, while energy and food prices cooled, countered by rising goods prices. The PPI year-on-year growth rate increased by 0.9 percentage points to 3.3%, with the largest month-on-month increase in three years [12] - Retail sales year-on-year growth decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. Core retail sales excluding automobiles saw a month-on-month growth of 0.3%. The Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 58.6, with one-year inflation expectations rising from 4.5% to 4.9% [14] - The imposition of tariffs on chips was noted, with Nvidia and AMD agreeing to pay 15% of their sales revenue from China to the U.S. government. Trump hinted at imposing chip tariffs potentially as high as 300% [14] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone industrial production showed a month-on-month decline of 1.3% in June, indicating a marginal weakening in industrial production, particularly in non-durable consumer goods and capital goods [26] - Japan's economy showed strong performance with a quarterly GDP growth of 0.3% and a year-on-year growth rate of 1%, driven by increased capital expenditure and strong exports [26]

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil prices in a fluctuating range, while copper and gold prices are expected to trend upwards [2] Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales growth rates have declined, while second-hand housing sales have rebounded; consumer electronics sales prices in August have shown a year-on-year decline [2] - In August, new housing sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand housing sales increased but prices fell; the high base and hot weather contributed to a decrease in passenger vehicle sales growth, with retail sales declining and wholesale sales recovering [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance have decreased but remain at historically high levels; tourism consumption continues to rise, with hotel occupancy rates increasing and revenue per available room up compared to last year [2] External Demand - The extension of the US-China tariff exemption for three months has been announced, while shipping volumes from China to the US continue to decline [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a drop in CCFI shipping rates and a significant decrease in container throughput; however, the number of departing ships has increased [3] Production - The effects of capacity reduction are yet to be seen, with manufacturing employment reaching a new low [4] - Recent steel production has decreased due to maintenance and iron water transfer, while the profitability of sample steel mills has slightly declined but remains acceptable [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power generation groups has significantly increased, driving up coal prices [5] - The manufacturing employment index has increased month-on-month but shows a year-on-year decline, reaching a historical low [6] Prices - Tariff exemptions have suppressed gold prices; domestic rebar prices have increased, while cement and thermal coal prices continue to rise, and glass prices have decreased [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the recognition and achievements of analysts in the financial sector, highlighting their contributions to macroeconomic research and investment analysis [1]. Group 1 - The article mentions that the analyst received the "2024 Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Elite Analyst" award, showcasing their expertise and reputation in the industry [1]. - It highlights the analyst's recognition as the "2022 Wind Gold Medal Analyst," indicating a strong performance in financial analysis [1]. - The analyst was awarded the "2022 CEIC and EMIS Outstanding Achievement Analyst," reflecting their significant contributions to economic research [1]. Group 2 - The article notes that the analyst was recognized as the "2021 Wind Best Roadshow Analyst," which underscores their effectiveness in presenting investment opportunities [1]. - It states that the analyst received the "2021 Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Best Analyst - Future Star" award, indicating potential for future growth and influence in the field [1]. - The analyst was also acknowledged as the "2021 CEIC and EMIS Outstanding Achievement Analyst," further solidifying their standing in the macroeconomic research community [1]. Group 3 - The article mentions that the analyst was ranked third in the "2020 New Fortune Best Analyst Macro Team," showcasing their team's strong performance in macroeconomic analysis [1].

Inflation Overview - The July CPI year-on-year growth rate remained stable at 2.7%, with a slight month-on-month deceleration to 0.2% [2][10] - Core CPI year-on-year growth increased to 3.1%, while core services remained unchanged [4][10] Energy and Food Prices - Energy inflation decreased, with the CPI energy component showing a year-on-year decline of -1.6%, and gasoline prices dropping by 9.5% [6] - Food prices also saw a cooling effect, contributing to the overall inflation dynamics [10] Service Sector Dynamics - Core services year-on-year growth was stable at 3.6%, but month-on-month growth rose to 0.4%, driven by increases in medical and transportation services [7] - Housing inflation remained steady, with owner-equivalent rent slightly decreasing to 4.1% [7] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs had a mild impact on commodity prices, with core commodity year-on-year growth rising to 1.2% [9] - The prices of used cars surged by 4.8%, influenced by tariffs, although a potential decline in used car prices is expected in the coming months [9] Market Reactions and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index decreased, leading to a 94% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [10] - The average expected rate cuts for the year are approximately 2.4 times [10] Consumer Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation expectation among consumers dropped to 4.5%, while the five-year expectation fell to 3.4%, indicating a decline in inflation concerns [12]

Global Asset Price Performance - European stock markets lead the gains, with major global stock markets mostly rising this week. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices increased by 1.6%, 0.9%, and 3.9% respectively compared to last week. The significant rise in European indices is attributed to strong financial sector earnings and potential peace talks between Trump and Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - In the bond market, major government bond yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by 4 basis points. Oil prices fell this week, likely due to progress in the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, reducing geopolitical risks. The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.4% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Stephen Miran has been nominated as a temporary Federal Reserve governor, succeeding Kugler until January next year. Several Federal Reserve officials have signaled dovish stances, with expectations of at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. If Miran's nomination is confirmed after Congress's recess, it may exacerbate divisions within the Fed [4] - The Bank of England has reduced its policy rate from 4.25% to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in this cycle. The Bank of Japan expressed concerns about lagging monetary policy in the face of inflation risks [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $60.2 billion in June, primarily due to a decrease in imports. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8% in July, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity, with rising costs. Key components showed a 1.6 percentage point decline in business activity, and both export and import indices fell below the neutral line [7] - The U.S. is set to impose tariffs on imported semiconductors at approximately 100%, with exemptions for companies like Apple that invest in U.S. manufacturing. Additionally, tariffs on pharmaceuticals may reach up to 250% [7] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.3% month-on-month in June, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.1%, indicating resilient consumer spending. Service production also showed positive trends, with a 0.2% month-on-month increase in May [16]

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil price fluctuations, while copper and gold prices are expected to rise [2][6] Domestic Demand - Sales of new homes, second-hand homes, and passenger cars are all experiencing a decline in growth rates. In August, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales decreased in volume but increased in price. The market is in a seasonal downturn, compounded by internal competition, with July passenger car sales growth rates for both retail and wholesale declining. The average sales price of home appliances has mostly decreased [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance continue to exceed last year's levels, driven by popular films, with summer box office revenue surpassing 7.7 billion yuan. Tourism consumption remains strong, with hotel occupancy rates rising and revenue per available room increasing, consistently above last year’s figures. Additionally, inbound tourism is performing well, with the Google "China Travel" search index reaching new highs, and international flight operations continuing to rise compared to last year [2] External Demand - The expansion of tariffs on U.S. industries has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S. Former President Trump announced plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, as well as small tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, with future rates potentially rising to 250%. Furthermore, a 25% punitive tariff will be applied to Indian purchases of Russian oil [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a decline in CCFI shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput. The growth rate of container bookings from China to the U.S. is decreasing, and shipping volumes continue to decline. Traditional transshipment regions, such as Southeast Asian ports, are also seeing a year-on-year decrease in docking volumes. In June, new orders in the U.S. manufacturing sector fell year-on-year, with transportation equipment manufacturing being a significant drag [3] Production - Weather factors are impacting prices, with high temperatures suppressing demand. However, steel mill profitability is on the rise, and production growth rates for sample steel mills continue to increase. The industry’s self-imposed production cuts have had limited effects, leading to a decrease in rebar prices this week. The glass industry, previously influenced by internal competition, has also seen price declines due to limited changes in fundamentals [4] - Due to typhoons and heavy rainfall, cement shipment rates are low, but national average cement prices have risen this week. However, the direct supply of cement to construction sites has decreased week-on-week, and the funding availability rate for sample construction sites has also declined, indicating overall weak downstream demand [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants has increased this week due to sustained high temperatures, while frequent rainfall has restricted coal production and transportation in major producing areas, leading to a slight decrease in coal market supply and a continued rise in thermal coal prices [5] Prices - Gold and copper prices are rebounding, while oil prices are declining. Weakness in the U.S. labor market has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in gold prices. A mining accident in Chile, combined with expectations for rate cuts, has driven copper prices upward. Conversely, the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation and continued OPEC+ production increases have put downward pressure on oil prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rebound in China's export and import growth rates in July, highlighting the factors contributing to these changes and the outlook for the second half of the year [2][3][17]. Export Growth - In July, China's export growth rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, although the month-on-month growth was below the median of the past five years [2][3]. - The rebound in exports is primarily attributed to a lower base from the previous year, as well as economic recovery in Europe and deepening cooperation with Latin America and Africa [3][8]. - Exports to most regions increased, with notable growth to Africa (42.5%) and Latin America (7.7%), while exports to the U.S. decreased by 21.6% [8]. Import Growth - China's import growth rate in July was 4.1%, a significant increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month growth was also notably higher than the five-year average [11]. - The increase in imports is driven by ongoing domestic production expansion and a significant drop in commodity prices compared to June, leading to higher imports of energy and industrial raw materials, particularly crude oil and copper [11][14]. - Imports from resource countries saw a notable increase of over 10%, with copper imports rising significantly [11][14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in July was $98.24 billion, which has narrowed compared to the previous month [17]. - Despite a downward trend in export growth, the contribution to economic growth is expected to remain stable due to various supportive factors, including European fiscal expansion and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17].

Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets showed weakness, with major indices declining: S&P 500 down 2.4%, Dow Jones down 2.9%, and Nasdaq down 2.2% compared to last week [2][3] - Most government bond yields fell, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreasing by 17 basis points [2][3] - Oil prices increased, likely due to geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S. threats to sanction Russia [2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1% [2][3] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the current level for the fifth consecutive meeting, with some internal dissent among board members [4] - The Bank of Japan decided to keep its benchmark short-term interest rate at 0.5% and raised its core inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025 to 2.7% [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. GDP for Q2 rebounded to an annualized rate of 3%, but private domestic final purchases fell to 1.2%, indicating a slowdown in domestic demand [7][8] - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, but previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [8] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, with a decline in labor force participation rate to 62.2%, the lowest since early 2023 [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone economic growth slowed significantly in Q2, with GDP growth dropping from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.1% [19] - Germany and Italy experienced negative GDP growth in Q2, contributing to the overall slowdown in the Eurozone [19] - Japan's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.9 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector due to weak demand [20]