在科技浪潮奔涌、成长股反复经历 "高光"与"震荡"的2025年，投资者应该如何拨开迷雾、锚定真正的长期价值？ 12月21日，在2025雪球嘉年华上，雪球人气用户零城逆影和鹏华基金董事总经理、权益投资三部总经理闫思倩，围绕《科技与成长股的投资逻辑》 议题，系统梳理了从新能源到人形机器人的演进路径，深度剖析AI热潮下的真实产业进程。 01 产业研究是底层投资逻辑 零城逆影： 您从 2011年就开始研究新能源在 配置人形机器人板块后 的初期 行情压力很大， 您是如何 一直坚持到现在的？ 闫思倩： 我们十五年前就开始研究特斯拉、电动车和新能源。在过去的产业链研究中，研究一辆车就要把整车拆解开。而拆解一辆车，重点要看三 电系统：对电池的研究涉及锂电池的正极负极、隔膜、电解液，一直到锂矿，因此研究范围覆盖有色、化工，甚至需要物理化工知识。 随后的汽车零部件，包括智驾系统、汽车电子等。十五年前，锂电池主要应用于宁德时代的前身 ATL，为苹果提供手机和笔记本电脑的电池，因此 果链和汽车产业链也就都进入到我们的研究范围内。 到了 2019年，互联网科技巨头纷纷入局造车，我本身学计算机的，就开始研究互联网科技巨头和电子架构，在这 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 今日A股截至收盘，上证指数涨0.53%，深证成指涨0.88%，创业板指涨0.77%。全市场成交额18972亿元，较上日成交额缩量241亿元。 市场热点轮动较快，全市场超4100只个股上涨。 板块题材上，电源、商业航天板块活跃，贵金属、海南板块调整。 一起来看一下今天的市场热点。 01 场内基金连续三天涨停，溢价70%！ 在今天，虽然贵金属板块回调了，但是商品市场，金价，银价，铜价均创历史新高。而且白银碾压黄金，成为今年涨幅最高的贵金属品种。年初至 今，伦敦银现涨幅高达150.07%。 值得关注的是，最近由于白银市场火热，而场内白银基金仅有一只：国投白银LOF。就造成了这只基金从12月22日到今天连续三日涨停，溢价高达 68.16%。 | 国投白银LOF | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 161226 已收盘 12-24 15:04:03 北京 | | | | | | | | 3.116 +0.283 +9.99% | | | | 2.93万人加自选 > | | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the growing importance of index investment and the need for investors to establish a robust allocation framework amidst style rotation [1] - The development of index investment in China has significantly progressed, with ETFs becoming mainstream investment tools, surpassing active funds in holdings as of Q3 2024 [4][5] - The total scale of ETFs in China reached approximately 5 trillion yuan, with stock ETFs accounting for around 4 trillion yuan, representing about 3% of the total A-share market capitalization [4] Group 2 - The article discusses the increasing market differentiation, highlighting the performance of the ChiNext index compared to traditional large-cap indices, suggesting that investors should consider using style factor indices to enhance returns [6][8] - Style factor indices, which blend active and passive investment strategies, can provide higher excess returns by breaking the limitations of traditional market-cap-weighted indices [7][8] - The analysis of over 1,000 ETFs indicates that style factor indices exhibit superior mean and variance performance, suggesting better risk-adjusted returns [7] Group 3 - The article outlines a simple and practical configuration logic for utilizing style factors, emphasizing the importance of optimizing stock selection logic and avoiding pitfalls like value traps [9][10] - A recommended strategy for multi-factor combinations is the "constant proportion rebalancing" approach, which can potentially outperform the CSI 300 index through systematic adjustments [10] - The complexity behind index investment is acknowledged, with a focus on the intricate stock selection logic and asset allocation strategies that can lead to excess returns [10] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the article posits that China's capital market has entered a phase of high-quality development in index investment, driven by the maturation of market participants and the application of AI technology [11] - Continuous policy support is expected to enhance market vitality and attract more investors to index investment, particularly in the ETF market [11] - The article aims to encourage a deeper understanding of style factor indices among investors, promoting the construction of resilient investment portfolios in the evolving ETF era [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that high volatility assets, often perceived as high return opportunities, can lead to significant losses for most investors due to behavioral biases and misjudgment of risk tolerance [5][6][10]. Group 1: High Volatility and Its Illusion - High returns from high volatility assets are statistical results predicated on investors holding their positions throughout market fluctuations [8]. - Most investors struggle to maintain their positions during downturns, often selling at losses due to fear and emotional decision-making [9][10]. - The reality is that high volatility leads to high perceived returns, but for ordinary investors, it often results in low or negative actual returns [10]. Group 2: Misjudgment of Risk Tolerance - Investors frequently misjudge their risk tolerance, believing they can handle high volatility when they cannot [12]. - True risk tolerance is determined by how much loss can cause emotional distress, not just by the maximum potential loss [12]. - This misjudgment can lead to significant investment errors, where investors take on more risk than they can handle, ultimately leading to panic selling [12]. Group 3: Wisdom of Low Volatility - Low volatility assets, such as high-quality fixed income and dividend-paying stocks, may offer lower annual returns (5%-8%) but are easier for investors to hold through market fluctuations [14]. - The power of compounding is more effective with stable investments, as consistent returns over time can lead to significant growth [14]. - Low volatility investments align better with human behavior, allowing for reasonable returns even amidst anxiety and mistakes [14]. Group 4: Choosing Low Volatility and Low Returns - The choice between high volatility with low returns and low volatility with low returns reflects a conscious decision; the latter ensures a more stable investment journey [16]. - It is recommended that most investors limit their equity exposure to 50% or less, with conservative investors keeping it below 20% [16]. - The article concludes that abandoning the pursuit of short-term high returns in favor of matching investments to one's risk tolerance is crucial for long-term success [17].

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is viewed as a high-quality long-term investment sector, benefiting from policy guidance and technological innovation, leading to opportunities for breakthroughs and ecological restructuring [1] Group 1: Rise of Chinese Innovative Drugs - The rise of domestic innovative drugs is attributed to the return of Chinese scientists post-2008, regulatory reforms in 2015, and the emergence of new therapeutic areas from 2017-2018, culminating in a strong global competitive position for Chinese products [4][5] - Talent supply, cost efficiency, and operational effectiveness are key advantages for Chinese pharmaceutical companies, with the proportion of top-tier pharmaceutical publications increasing from 5% in 2018 to 18% in 2024, and preclinical R&D costs being 30%-50% of those in overseas markets [4][5] - Regulatory changes in 2015 shifted the focus from high-priced generics to innovative drugs, enhancing industry efficiency due to a large market and concentrated talent [5] Group 2: Focus on High-Potential Molecules and Core Indications - Future high-potential molecules in China are expected to focus on engineered antibodies, particularly PD-1 bispecific antibodies, which have significant sales potential in oncology [7] - Two PD-1 bispecific antibodies, AK112 and IBI3653, are highlighted for their potential to achieve sales exceeding $10 billion, targeting major cancer markets [7][8] Group 3: Investment Strategies in the Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry is characterized by high competition and risk, necessitating a strategic investment approach that includes focusing on biotech for high-risk, high-reward opportunities, and bio-pharma for stable growth [10][11] - Companies are categorized into three types: Biotech (high-risk, early-stage), BioPharma (integrated R&D and sales), and MNC Pharma (large, stable growth), each with distinct investment attributes [11] Group 4: AI's Role in Pharmaceutical R&D - AI is recognized for its potential to enhance efficiency in drug development, particularly in data management, but cannot replace the complex and costly human clinical trials [14] - The impact of AI on the pharmaceutical industry is limited, primarily serving to improve efficiency rather than fundamentally transforming the drug development process [14] Group 5: Valuation and Market Dynamics - Current valuations of innovative drugs in China are considered reasonable, with some leading companies experiencing significant valuation adjustments recently [16] - The U.S. pharmaceutical market shows a clear distinction in valuations between small and large companies, with opportunities arising from companies with promising clinical data but lower market capitalizations [16] Group 6: Future Directions in Innovative Drug Technologies - The future focus in the pharmaceutical industry is expected to shift towards tumor technology applications in chronic diseases and the maturation of small nucleic acid technologies, which are anticipated to surpass traditional methods [17][18] - The next core direction in innovative drugs is expected to be small nucleic acid/RNA drugs, which are projected to have significant commercial potential over the next two decades [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the balance between offensive and defensive investment strategies in a complex and volatile capital market, emphasizing the importance of value investing amidst current challenges [1]. Group 1: Low Valuation vs. Certainty - Low valuation and certainty are not mutually exclusive; they often complement each other, and the best investment choices should ideally possess both characteristics [3]. - An example of a low valuation with certainty is a leading company in the telecommunications sector, which had a market value of less than 700 billion HKD, around 400 billion HKD in cash, and annual profits of 100 billion HKD [3]. - The current optimal sectors for investment include resource products, energy, consumer industries, and AI applications [4]. Group 2: Identifying and Avoiding Value Traps - A value trap is defined by the sustainability of profits; if profits decline, the ability to recover is crucial in distinguishing between true value and a value trap [6]. - Historical examples of value traps include real estate stocks during 2021-2022, where declining land prices invalidated previous investment rationales [6]. - Continuous tracking and evaluation of investments are essential to avoid value traps, along with establishing internal questioning rules to reassess investments when they decline [8]. Group 3: Expanding Capability Circles and Investment Evolution - Value investing requires ongoing reflection and adaptation to changes in the underlying logic of investments, especially as the economic growth engine shifts towards technology and innovation [10]. - Continuous learning and team collaboration are vital for expanding the capability circle, allowing for better decision-making and knowledge absorption [11]. - The investment style of a firm may involve a systematic approach using models to enhance research efficiency and decision stability [13]. Group 4: Position Management and Market Outlook - Position management varies among investors; some adjust positions based on market conditions, while others maintain high positions based on long-term value perspectives [16]. - The market outlook remains optimistic due to significant capital waiting for investment opportunities, with AI's rapid development expected to profoundly impact the asset management industry [20]. - Future investment keywords may include opportunities arising from market discrepancies and consumer-driven growth, particularly in sectors like health and outdoor activities [21].

12月20-21日，2025雪球嘉年华在上海举办。数十位重磅嘉宾围绕宏观环境展望、行业板块投资机遇及资产配置策略等核心议题展开了深度对话与 思想碰撞。 "长期主义"与"资产配置"成为贯穿全场的高频热词，在复杂市场中凝聚起对结构性机遇的清晰共识，为投资者布局2026年提供了多元而前瞻的思维 地图。而"AI"则以不同的视角深入到了几乎每一场演讲和讨论中。 宏观趋势研判 在全球格局中，中国资产的定位与潜力被反复论及。工银国际首席经济学家程实强调，中国经济的比较优势呈现系统性、全方位特征，成为全球经 济的"快变量"与"稳定器"，并指出中国资产正进入价值重估上升通道。程实总结两大核心观点：其一，以长期视角审视全球大类资产配置，"东升 西降"趋势仍在推进；其二，"格物致知，成事在人"，投资于物与投资于人的紧密结合，是理解中国式现代化、把握未来投资机遇的核心战略。 工银国际首席经济学家程实 中金公司研究部董事总经理、首席海外与港股策略分析师刘刚从市场微观结构出发，认为中国市场过剩流动性追逐"稀缺回报资产"的格局不变。 刘刚指出2025年全球市场呈现诸多反直觉、反常识的特征。其一，多类资产逻辑各异却实现同涨；其二，资产轮动剧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced approach in investment strategies during market transitions, highlighting that both bull and bear markets are integral to long-term investment success [6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Insights - In a bull-bear transition, the outcome is determined not by directional judgment but by the balance of offense and defense [6]. - The real risk in a bull market lies not in declines but in losing safety margins during price increases, where blind confidence can be a significant hazard [6]. - Both bull and bear markets are components of long-term investment, and short-term fluctuations should not be overstated [6]. Group 2: Risk Management and Behavior - Many investors lose money in bull markets due to a lack of clarity regarding their initial intentions, goals, and strategies [6]. - Poor structure and lack of discipline are the root causes of losses in bull markets, stemming from behavioral issues rather than insufficient information [6]. - The essence of diversification is not to seek higher returns but to ensure a more stable investment process [6]. Group 3: Acceptance of Market Dynamics - The first step for ordinary investors in financial management is to acknowledge their inability to withstand extreme drawdowns [6]. - Volatility is a normal aspect of investing, and choosing to invest means accepting the existence of such fluctuations [6]. - Diversification cannot eliminate volatility; it can only keep it within manageable limits [6]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Principles - Asset allocation cannot eliminate risk but can reduce the probability of losing control [6]. - In a declining market, if the fundamentals remain unchanged, it may present an opportunity to increase positions [6]. - The goal of diversification is to navigate through market cycles rather than to outperform indices in the short term [6]. Group 5: Rebalancing and Long-term Focus - Accepting that asset allocation may underperform indices at market peaks is essential for maintaining initial investment principles [6]. - Rebalancing is not about timing the market but about using rules to counter emotions and reduce subjective judgments, with common strategies including periodic, quantitative, and temperature-based rebalancing [6]. - The key to long-term results lies not in seizing opportunities but in maintaining boundaries [6].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 今天A股高开高走！截至收盘，沪指涨0.69%，深成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨2.23%。 沪深两市成交额1.86万亿，较上一个交易日放量1360亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超2900只个股上涨，其中有105只个股涨停。海南 自贸区、贵金属、算力硬件等板块涨幅居前，医药商业、影视院线、教育、银行等板块跌幅居前。一起来看今天热点。 01 贵金属狂飙， 黄金、白银齐创新高！ 在降息预期和地缘政治紧张局势的双重推动下，贵金属集体强势， 现货黄金继续攀升，站上4400美元，刷新历史新高水平，伦敦白银现货站上69 美元，年内暴涨近140%，创下历史新高， 广期所钯期货主力合约涨停，日内涨7.00%，再创上市以来新高，为上市以来第三次涨停。 A股贵金属板块活跃，湖南白银、晓程科技涨超7%，西部黄金、中金黄金、山东黄金、四川黄金、赤峰黄金、招金黄金、湖南黄金等跟涨。 | | | 贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2944.78 (+118.25 +4.18%) | | | | 讨论 | 板块分析 | 成分股 | 相关E ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that a bull market is not just about high points on a K-line chart, but also represents an opportunity for investors to upgrade their understanding and achieve long-term growth [1] Group 2 - The initial entry into the A-share market for the interviewees was influenced by specific articles and market conditions, with one participant entering in late 2006 after reading about closed-end funds, achieving a 180% return in the first year [3][4] - The second participant described their experience during the 2006-2007 bull market as an "enlightenment movement," which opened the door to the investment industry despite not retaining profits [3][4] Group 3 - The investment methodology of one participant was shaped by a chance discovery of the opportunity in closed-end funds, utilizing quantitative investment strategies influenced by their professional background in management [6] - The second participant transitioned to value investing after reading Warren Buffett's "The Snowball," which fundamentally changed their investment perspective [7] Group 4 - In the 2014-2015 market, one participant identified structural opportunities in water and insurance stocks, emphasizing the importance of understanding business models over technical analysis [10] - Another participant experienced a significant turning point in 2015, utilizing a niche strategy with leveraged funds to achieve a 24% return during a market adjustment [11][12] Group 5 - The discussion on convertible bonds highlighted their core advantage of "asymmetry," where the bond's price movements are less volatile compared to the underlying stock, leading to consistent long-term gains [14][15] Group 6 - The suitability for value investing is linked to personal traits such as caution, rationality, and a desire for continuous learning, with a three-tiered approach to finding one's investment method: ideological alignment, mastering fundamentals, and ongoing evolution [17][18][19]