Group 1 - The core issue of the U.S. government shutdown is the inability to pass a new budget, which is necessary for government operations to continue after the fiscal year ends on September 30 [4][5][6] - The U.S. Congress, composed of both Republican and Democratic parties, is responsible for budget approval, leading to conflicts and delays in passing necessary funding [7][8] - Historical data shows that since 1980, there have been 22 instances of government shutdowns, with the longest being 35 days in 2018 [9] Group 2 - A government shutdown does not mean complete chaos; essential services like Social Security and Medicare continue, while non-essential services may be suspended [11][12][13] - The current budget impasse is primarily due to disagreements over healthcare spending, with Democrats wanting to extend tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, while Republicans seek a short-term funding extension without additional provisions [16][17][18] - The uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown could negatively impact the stock market, while potentially providing support for gold prices due to increased risk perception [20][21] Group 3 - The long-term trends of the stock market are expected to remain unaffected by the government shutdown, as they are driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle and the fundamentals of technology stocks [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pitfalls of relying solely on Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios for investment decisions, particularly in industry indices, and emphasizes the importance of combining PE with Price-to-Book (PB) ratios for more reliable investment timing and efficiency [5][6][29]. Group 1: PE Ratio Analysis - PE ratios can be misleading, especially in industry indices where profits are highly synchronized, leading to exaggerated fluctuations in PE during economic cycles [8][9]. - In broad indices, PE has more reference value due to smoother profit distributions, while in industry indices, profit volatility can distort the perceived value [8][9]. - The consumption electronics sector exemplifies the "profit decline, valuation distortion, profit recovery" cycle, illustrating how PE can mislead investors [10][23]. Group 2: Stages of PE Fluctuation - The first stage is the decline phase, where prices drop and PE decreases, creating an illusion of value, often leading to premature investments [13][15]. - The second stage is the bottoming phase, characterized by price stabilization and rising PE, which may deter investors despite being a potential entry point [19]. - The third stage is the reversal phase, where prices rise and PE stabilizes or decreases, indicating a "cheaper as it rises" scenario, as seen in the consumption electronics sector in 2024 [21][23]. Group 3: Importance of PB Ratio - PB ratio serves as a more stable indicator compared to PE, as it reflects the company's net asset value rather than fluctuating profits, making it a useful tool for assessing value during volatile periods [25][27]. - The combination of PE and PB ratios creates a "valuation temperature" that provides a more accurate assessment of an index's value, especially in cyclical industries [27]. - The methodology adjusts the weight of PE and PB based on the industry cycle, enhancing the reliability of the valuation approach [27]. Group 4: Conclusion - Investors should be cautious of relying solely on PE ratios, as they can create illusions of value during profit fluctuations. A multi-faceted approach using both PE and PB is recommended for a clearer understanding of true market value [29].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 今天是国庆小长假前倒数第二个交易日，A股一改前两周震荡的态势，在券商板块的带领下发起新一轮攻势。截止收盘，沪指 涨0.90% ， 深成指 涨2.05% ， 创业板指 涨2.74%， 沪深两市成交额2.16万亿，较上一个交易日放量146亿。 盘面上 ， 市场热点快速轮动 ，早盘固态电池、储能板块领涨，贵金属板块持续拉升，午后"牛市旗手"证券板块集体拉升，千亿中信证券一度冲 击涨停。 01 此外，本周一、周二是国庆前的最后两个交易日。 开源证券指出 ，临近国庆假期前的避险情绪上升，不排除高位科技板块延续本周回撤的可能。 但从中长期来看，政策基调未出现根本性偏离，长线资金与外资仍有配置倾向，散户情绪较为理性， 再加上券商、金融板块尚处于较低估值区 间，建议"持股过节"。 4500亿中信证券一度冲击涨停 今天证券板块午后大幅走强，中信证券一度冲击涨停，收涨5.88%，华泰证券、国盛金控、广发证券盘中涨停，东方证券、湘财股份、东吴证券 涨幅居前。 消息面上，日前中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第三季度例会。会议指出，有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇大 文 ...

以下文章来源于晨星投资说 ，作者陪你聊市场的 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：晨星Morningstar | 屈辰晨 晨星投资说 . 全球知名投资研究机构晨星Morningstar，与您一同探索投资星球。我们的使命是"赋能投资者成功"！ 来源：雪球 经历了上个月的大涨 ， 进入 9 月后 ， 市场波动明显加剧 ， 投资者的情绪又在看多与看空之间来回摇摆 。 理论上来说 ， 过去的经验能帮我们更好地应对未来的波动 。 可现实是 ， 因为每次触发波动的事件不一样 ， 我们的大脑总会重新构建一套叙事 逻辑 ， 让我们觉得 " 这次不一样 " 。 但这会让我们很难意识到 ： 每一轮波动 ， 其实都是市场规律的重复上演 。 就像对很多老股民来说 ， 即便经历过了2015年股灾 ， 到了2020 年疫情引发的市场震荡时 ， 还是会因为觉得 " 前所未有 " 而陷入恐慌 。 美国财经作家 、 投资顾问 Nick Murray 在他的新书 《 这次并没有不一样 》 （ This Time Isn ' t Different ） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversification in personal asset allocation to achieve wealth preservation and growth, rather than engaging in speculation [2][32]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Ray Dalio suggests that a 10%-15% allocation to gold is an effective balance and risk hedge for an individual's asset portfolio [39]. - Dalio advocates for a diversified investment strategy, highlighting that individuals should not solely rely on savings or real estate, as many people do [2][29]. - The concept of "All Weather Strategy" introduced by Dalio focuses on diversification, risk balance, and rebalancing as key components of asset allocation [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Insights - Dalio discusses the significance of debt cycles, stating that excessive debt can lead to economic distress for both individuals and nations [6][13]. - He points out that the current U.S. debt situation is unsustainable, with government spending significantly exceeding revenue, leading to increased borrowing [19][20]. - The article mentions that many countries, including the U.S., Japan, and China, face varying degrees of debt issues, with similar underlying mechanisms [17][18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The dialogue highlights the changing global economic landscape, where investors need to adapt their strategies to manage their portfolios effectively [38]. - Dalio notes that understanding the underlying mechanisms of market movements is crucial for managing investment portfolios [39][42]. - The article suggests that a balanced approach to asset allocation can help investors navigate market fluctuations and economic cycles [30][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that younger investors should avoid competing in the same investment arena as older investors, particularly in traditional sectors, and instead focus on emerging industries that older investors may not understand [2][3][9]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Older investors, referred to as "老登," have benefited from previous market trends, particularly in sectors like liquor and consumer goods, but may miss out on new technology trends [2][3]. - Younger investors should seek opportunities in industries that are not yet recognized by older investors, as this could provide a chance for significant returns [3][9]. Group 2: Case Study of Kweichow Moutai - Kweichow Moutai's stock price increased from approximately 4 yuan at its IPO in 2001 to a peak of around 2342 yuan in 2021, representing a growth of over 580 times [4]. - The company's revenue grew from 1.618 billion yuan in 2001 to 109.5 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of about 68 times [6][7]. - To replicate its past success, Kweichow Moutai would need to achieve a revenue of approximately 11.8 trillion yuan in 20 years, which is nearly 15 times the current size of the entire liquor industry [8]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investing in traditional industry leaders like Kweichow Moutai may only be suitable for those with substantial capital, as the potential for high returns diminishes for smaller investors [8][9]. - The article suggests that younger investors would be better off focusing on their careers rather than spending time in the stock market, as the opportunity cost may be higher [9].

以下文章来源于我画你财 ，作者我画你财 我画你财 . 告别枯燥理论，看图学习理财。 司美所在的创新药行业，这两年大家在投资的时候一定常常听到。 但这个行业涉及太多医学专业领域认知，可能不少人还是一头雾水。 到底 创新药是个什么东东 呢 ？这篇 帮 你快速了解！ 首先，先明确一个概念：创新药≠刚上市的新药，而是从 0 到 1 治之前治不了的病。 那是说创新药专门治疗大病、罕见病吗？ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 最近要是某个明星瘦了，大家的第一反应都是： 司美格鲁肽，8年前由一个丹麦药企推出，最初是专门帮糖尿病患者控制血糖的。 2023年被马斯克意外带火，成了全网热议的 "减肥神药"。 大部分是，因为常见病已经有便宜的传统药了，没必要再去研究，特定疾病尤其是那些不好治的 疑难杂症，才是创新药的主要攻克对象。 更特别的是，创新药是精准找到病因——靶点，然后对靶点进行治疗；传统药则不锁定靶点，直 接缓解症状。 还是司美举例，我们看看它在2型糖尿病人身体里是怎么工作的，明白创新药的厉害。 2型糖尿病形成的主要原因是GLP-1激素异常。 传统药的解法是：直接对多余血糖下手。 比如通过吃药的方式，来减少葡萄糖生成 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 周末的市场休息，本来还是很平淡，但这周末，特朗普又带来了王炸消息！ 01 辟谣！摩尔线程上市！ 先看一下周五大家比较关注的科技板块的一个小作文，周五科技板块，半导体，芯片，算力出现了调整，冲高回落，而且收盘时跌幅也是比较大 的。 在周五盘中传出了一则小作文的消息：25号摩尔线程在交易所的状态为"暂缓审核"，上市被卡。也是周五芯片半导体板块下跌的一个原因。 但在昨天，就被马上辟谣，上海证券交易所上市委审议通过了摩尔线程智能科技（北京）股份有限公司的首发申请。从6月30日上市申请获受理到 成功过会，摩尔线程仅用时88天，创下科创板审核周期的最快纪录。 此次IPO， 摩尔线程计划募资80亿元人民币，是年内A股过会项目中募资规模最大的项目，同时也是年内半导体领域最大规模的IPO。 02 又要开战？ 再来看看这个周末的重磅消息，周末市场休息，但是特朗普不休。来看一下周末这两天关于特朗普的消息。 据美煤日报道，4名消息人士透露， 美国军方官员正在制定针对委内瑞拉境内"贩毒分子"的行动方案，并可能在几周内开始对该国境内目标的打 击。 值得一提的是， 委内瑞拉 是世界重要石油生产与出口国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified, long-term investment strategy, particularly through a "permanent investment strategy" that balances various asset classes to achieve stable returns while minimizing risk [4][5][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author advocates for a global multi-asset allocation approach, suggesting that investors should not overly concentrate on high-valuation sectors [4][5]. - A sample permanent investment portfolio is proposed, consisting of 12.5% in Nasdaq 100, 12.5% in S&P 500, 25% in gold, 25% in Chinese bonds, and 25% in U.S. bonds [6][12]. - Historical backtesting of this strategy shows a three-year return of 70.74%, outperforming the CSI 300's 18.41% and slightly lagging behind the S&P 500's 83.51% [9][12]. Group 2: Risk and Performance Metrics - The maximum drawdown for the permanent strategy is reported at 9.19%, significantly lower than the CSI 300's 24.8% and the S&P 500's 18.62% [9][12]. - The Sharpe ratio for the permanent strategy is calculated at 0.12, compared to 0.02 for the CSI 300 and 0.08 for the S&P 500, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [9][12]. - The strategy's positive return days are at 55.14%, slightly higher than the CSI 300's 49%, suggesting that while the strategy does not yield daily profits, it benefits from lower volatility [9][12]. Group 3: Long-term Performance - Over five years, the permanent strategy achieved a return of 79.1%, while the CSI 300 only returned 0.07% and the S&P 500 returned 115.36% [13]. - The article notes that rebalancing the portfolio over five years resulted in a decrease in performance from 76.3% to 66.6%, attributed to the strong upward trends in U.S. stocks and gold [17]. - The author argues that long-term rebalancing can enhance returns during market downturns by locking in profits and allowing for reinvestment at lower prices [17]. Group 4: Asset Correlation - The correlation between S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is very high at 0.97, indicating limited diversification benefits between these two assets [20]. - In contrast, the correlation between S&P 500 and gold is only 0.01, and between S&P 500 and U.S. bonds is 0.09, highlighting the importance of including low-correlation assets in a diversified portfolio [20]. - The article suggests that the current market is heavily concentrated in large-cap tech stocks, which may pose risks if the broader economy weakens [21].

可以明显看出来这波行情是以中小市值且具有科技属性的股票为主的 ， 而大盘股并没有上涨太多 ， 比如上证50指数还没有突破去年10月8日的 高点 。 而在所有细分板块中关注度比较高的就是食品饮料板块 ， 尤其是以贵州茅台为代表的白酒板块 ， 已经经历了4年多的调整 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 方心景 来源：雪球 现在估计很少有人怀疑不是牛市了 ， 自去年9.24行情启动 ， 至今也一年了 ， 这一年上证指数上涨40% ， 深证成指上涨60% ， 创业板上涨 105% ， 科创板上涨120% ， 北交所上涨155% 。 历史上1998年到2000年以及2009年有过短暂的这种情况 ， 而这两个时间段对应的恰恰是98年亚洲金融危机以及08年的次贷危机 。 我不是经济学家 ， 不太清楚这次的情况 ， 但有一点可以肯定 ， 就是接下来一定是可以走出通缩的 ， 经济也一定会慢慢好起来的 。 那从这个角度说 ， 当前食品饮料行业也一定会回归到合理的估值区间的 。 所以可以肯定的是以白酒为代表的食品饮料行业并不会缺席这 ...