↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 周末的市场休息，本来还是很平淡，但这周末，特朗普又带来了王炸消息！ 01 辟谣！摩尔线程上市！ 先看一下周五大家比较关注的科技板块的一个小作文，周五科技板块，半导体，芯片，算力出现了调整，冲高回落，而且收盘时跌幅也是比较大 的。 在周五盘中传出了一则小作文的消息：25号摩尔线程在交易所的状态为"暂缓审核"，上市被卡。也是周五芯片半导体板块下跌的一个原因。 但在昨天，就被马上辟谣，上海证券交易所上市委审议通过了摩尔线程智能科技（北京）股份有限公司的首发申请。从6月30日上市申请获受理到 成功过会，摩尔线程仅用时88天，创下科创板审核周期的最快纪录。 此次IPO， 摩尔线程计划募资80亿元人民币，是年内A股过会项目中募资规模最大的项目，同时也是年内半导体领域最大规模的IPO。 02 又要开战？ 再来看看这个周末的重磅消息，周末市场休息，但是特朗普不休。来看一下周末这两天关于特朗普的消息。 据美煤日报道，4名消息人士透露， 美国军方官员正在制定针对委内瑞拉境内"贩毒分子"的行动方案，并可能在几周内开始对该国境内目标的打 击。 值得一提的是， 委内瑞拉 是世界重要石油生产与出口国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified, long-term investment strategy, particularly through a "permanent investment strategy" that balances various asset classes to achieve stable returns while minimizing risk [4][5][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author advocates for a global multi-asset allocation approach, suggesting that investors should not overly concentrate on high-valuation sectors [4][5]. - A sample permanent investment portfolio is proposed, consisting of 12.5% in Nasdaq 100, 12.5% in S&P 500, 25% in gold, 25% in Chinese bonds, and 25% in U.S. bonds [6][12]. - Historical backtesting of this strategy shows a three-year return of 70.74%, outperforming the CSI 300's 18.41% and slightly lagging behind the S&P 500's 83.51% [9][12]. Group 2: Risk and Performance Metrics - The maximum drawdown for the permanent strategy is reported at 9.19%, significantly lower than the CSI 300's 24.8% and the S&P 500's 18.62% [9][12]. - The Sharpe ratio for the permanent strategy is calculated at 0.12, compared to 0.02 for the CSI 300 and 0.08 for the S&P 500, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [9][12]. - The strategy's positive return days are at 55.14%, slightly higher than the CSI 300's 49%, suggesting that while the strategy does not yield daily profits, it benefits from lower volatility [9][12]. Group 3: Long-term Performance - Over five years, the permanent strategy achieved a return of 79.1%, while the CSI 300 only returned 0.07% and the S&P 500 returned 115.36% [13]. - The article notes that rebalancing the portfolio over five years resulted in a decrease in performance from 76.3% to 66.6%, attributed to the strong upward trends in U.S. stocks and gold [17]. - The author argues that long-term rebalancing can enhance returns during market downturns by locking in profits and allowing for reinvestment at lower prices [17]. Group 4: Asset Correlation - The correlation between S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is very high at 0.97, indicating limited diversification benefits between these two assets [20]. - In contrast, the correlation between S&P 500 and gold is only 0.01, and between S&P 500 and U.S. bonds is 0.09, highlighting the importance of including low-correlation assets in a diversified portfolio [20]. - The article suggests that the current market is heavily concentrated in large-cap tech stocks, which may pose risks if the broader economy weakens [21].

可以明显看出来这波行情是以中小市值且具有科技属性的股票为主的 ， 而大盘股并没有上涨太多 ， 比如上证50指数还没有突破去年10月8日的 高点 。 而在所有细分板块中关注度比较高的就是食品饮料板块 ， 尤其是以贵州茅台为代表的白酒板块 ， 已经经历了4年多的调整 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 方心景 来源：雪球 现在估计很少有人怀疑不是牛市了 ， 自去年9.24行情启动 ， 至今也一年了 ， 这一年上证指数上涨40% ， 深证成指上涨60% ， 创业板上涨 105% ， 科创板上涨120% ， 北交所上涨155% 。 历史上1998年到2000年以及2009年有过短暂的这种情况 ， 而这两个时间段对应的恰恰是98年亚洲金融危机以及08年的次贷危机 。 我不是经济学家 ， 不太清楚这次的情况 ， 但有一点可以肯定 ， 就是接下来一定是可以走出通缩的 ， 经济也一定会慢慢好起来的 。 那从这个角度说 ， 当前食品饮料行业也一定会回归到合理的估值区间的 。 所以可以肯定的是以白酒为代表的食品饮料行业并不会缺席这 ...

Group 1: US Tariff Policy Changes - The latest US tariff measures on pharmaceuticals will not apply to countries that have trade agreements with the US, such as the EU and Japan, which will continue to adhere to the agreed 15% tariff cap [2][5] - The UK, however, will face a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical exports to the US, as negotiations on drug-related tax rates are still ongoing [5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Data - Following the announcement of the tariff changes, the Asia-Pacific pharmaceutical stocks experienced declines, with companies like BeiGene down 4% and Sumitomo Pharma down over 3% [2] - On September 26, US stock indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% and the S&P 500 up 0.59%, driven by inflation data that raised expectations for interest rate cuts [6][12] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September was reported at 55.1, slightly lower than the preliminary value, while the core PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations [13] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market experienced a significant rally, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.5% to $3789.8 per ounce and silver futures up 2.77% to $46.365 per ounce, marking a 14-year high for silver [15][16] - Over the past six months, silver has seen a cumulative increase of over 30%, outperforming most commodities, with a year-to-date rise of 59%, compared to gold's 43% [17] - The current gold-silver ratio indicates that silver is undervalued relative to historical averages, suggesting potential for price correction [18]

以下文章来源于画不多说 ，作者懂私募的灵魂画手 画不多说 . 话不多说，画多说。用最通俗易懂的方式，讲述私募的故事。 一名合格的主观私募基金研究员，每天最重要的工作就是——选股。 每次选股，必须要经历四个大步骤，n个小步骤。 从行业出发： 从个股出发： 以上三种方法没有好坏之分，用哪种方法都有可能找出好股票。 第一步：筛选和立项 如何在茫茫股海中找到心仪的那个"它"，不同的研究员可能有不同的方法。 如果按研究的起点划分，可以分为三种。 从宏观出发： 从宏观和个股出发，大家可能平时了解得比较多，今天着重讲讲从行业出发选股。 所有成熟的行业都可以被梳理成一条条清晰的产业链。产业链简单理解就是一件产品从产生到 使用的完整过程，按顺序可分为三段： 以新能源汽车为例： 实际选股时，常用的方法是产业链逆向推导。所谓逆向推导，就是从产业链下游开始扒起，逐 层向上找。 为什么要向上游找呢？ 虽然产业趋势的红利最终会反映在下游需求上，但下游竞争往往极其激烈，格局瞬息万变。而 上游供应商却通常具备更强的确定性—— 无论下游谁胜出，都离不开核心材料与部件。 这就好比淘金热时，淘金者是否挖到金矿难以预测，但向所有淘金者卖铲子的人，却 ...

Core Concept - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the "collaboration" between assets in investment allocation, which is mathematically represented by "correlation" [3][4]. Asset Allocation Principles - Ideal investment portfolios should consist of assets with varying correlations: assets with a correlation close to +1 move together, those with a correlation close to -1 move inversely, and those with a correlation close to 0 operate independently [4]. - The modern portfolio theory proposed by Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz suggests that scientific diversification can significantly reduce risk without sacrificing returns [4]. Mathematical Framework - For perfectly negatively correlated assets (correlation of -1), the allocation ratio should be inversely proportional to their volatility. If two funds have the same volatility, equal allocation is appropriate [5][7]. - If the volatilities differ, the allocation should favor the asset with lower volatility. For example, if Fund A has a volatility of 10% and Fund B has 30%, the optimal allocation would be 75% in Fund A and 25% in Fund B [7]. - For assets with a correlation close to 0, the allocation ratio should be inversely proportional to the square of their volatility. This allows for optimization of the risk-return profile even among uncorrelated assets [10][13]. Investment Insights - Including negatively correlated assets in a portfolio can effectively reduce overall volatility. While perfectly negatively correlated assets are rare, seeking low or negatively correlated assets remains a valid strategy for optimizing investment portfolios [9]. - The article illustrates that even with uncorrelated assets, appropriate weight allocation can enhance the risk-return ratio. For instance, a combination of five uncorrelated assets can reduce volatility significantly compared to individual assets [15]. Addressing Concerns about Returns - The article argues that proper asset allocation does not diminish returns; rather, it can stabilize and enhance them. The key is to select high-performing assets rather than diversifying for the sake of it [17]. - Examples provided include combining U.S. stocks with A-shares, both of which have long-term annualized returns of around 8-10%, resulting in a stable combined return while reducing volatility [17]. Practical Guidelines for Portfolio Construction - Step 1: Diversify across major asset classes such as stocks (high long-term returns, high volatility), bonds (stable returns, low volatility), and commodities (inflation hedge) [21]. - Step 2: Diversify by region and strategy, investing in various markets and styles to mitigate risks [21]. - Step 3: Regularly rebalance the portfolio to maintain the desired asset allocation, selling portions of assets that have appreciated significantly and buying those that have declined [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in industries, particularly in the solar energy sector, where increased competition leads to price wars and reduced profitability for companies, prompting the government to implement measures to counteract this trend [5][8][34]. Group 1: Industry Overview - China is the world's largest industrial nation, contributing $30 out of every $100 of industrial products globally [3]. - Despite the growth in industrial scale and product sales, many companies are operating at a loss due to intense competition and price reductions [5][20]. Group 2: Involution in the Solar Industry - The solar industry experienced a surge in demand due to global energy transition efforts, attracting numerous competitors, including over a hundred cross-industry entrants from 2022 to 2023 [10][17]. - The influx of competitors has led to severe product homogenization and intensified competition, resulting in price wars [20][22]. Group 3: Strategies of Dominant Players - Dominant players, referred to as "卷王" (involution kings), leverage their strong cash flow and lower production costs to outlast weaker competitors in the market [23][27]. - These dominant companies are willing to sustain short-term losses to gain market share and pricing power in the long run [29][30]. Group 4: Government Response - The Chinese government has recognized the risks posed by industrial involution, which threatens economic stability and employment, as the industrial sector accounts for over 30% of GDP [31][34]. - Starting from July of the previous year, the government has implemented various policies to combat involution, including production quotas in the solar industry to limit supply and stabilize prices [36][38]. Group 5: Market Impact - The solar sector has seen a price recovery and a significant increase in stock performance, with the sector rising over 17% this year, while the broader anti-involution index has increased by nearly 50% [43].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 午后跳水，三大指数震荡走跌，截至收盘， 沪指跌0.65% ， 深成指跌1.76% ， 创业板指跌2.60% 。 沪深两市成交额2.15万亿 ， 较上一个交易日缩量2242亿， 全市场超3400只个股下跌 。 板块方面 ， 风电 、 保险等板块涨幅居前 ， 游戏 、 算力硬件 、 光刻机等板块跌幅居前。 港股也走低，恒生指数跌超1%，恒生科技指数跌近3%，小米集团、金山云跌超7%等。 特朗普，突发重磅！ AI、半导体大跌 以AI为主线的科技股今天集体走弱，工业富联大跌5%，寒武纪跌超3%，立讯精密大跌超6%，瑞芯微、芯原股份、 领益智造、景旺电子等 跌超6 %。 9月26日午后，突然传来重磅消息。据路透社报道，消息人士称，特朗普政府正在考虑一项新的半导体政策，要求芯片公司在国内制造的半导体数 量与其客户从海外生产商进口的半导体数量相同，如果公司未能长期保持这种1:1的比例，将面临大约100%的关税。 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克与半导体行业高管讨论了这一概念，理由是美国科技公司严重依赖海外芯片生产，容易受到多重因素影响，对经济 安全形成威胁。 知情人士表示，根据新制度，如果一家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shift in market trends since early July, highlighting the underperformance of bank stocks compared to technology sectors like communications and semiconductors, which have seen substantial gains [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Before July, bank stocks had the highest gains among all sectors, with a peak increase of over 22%, but have since dropped to a 6.8% increase [3]. - The author reflects on the missed opportunity of reallocating investments from bank stocks to technology stocks during this period, which could have resulted in higher returns [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes the importance of a dividend and equity mindset, suggesting that during bear markets, dividend stocks serve as a safer investment, experiencing smaller declines compared to growth stocks [8][10]. - It advocates for a long-term investment strategy that includes buying undervalued companies with high dividends, ensuring a safety margin and consistent income [12][14]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The author contrasts two investment approaches: dividend stock investment, which prioritizes safety and stable returns, and technology stock investment, which seeks high returns but comes with higher risks [17][18]. - The article suggests that investors should consider their understanding of technology stocks and their long-term profitability before making investment decisions, using Warren Buffett's approach as a guiding principle [20].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 作者： 极简投资人 来源：雪球 一 、 我们都是投资中的傻瓜 投资是一个全世界的人都不得不参与的比赛 ， 但是这个比赛很残酷 ， 只有极少的人能够实实在在赚到钱 。 有一句话比较有意思 ， 如果你在牌桌上玩了一会 ， 没有看出来谁是傻瓜 ， 那么你就是那个傻瓜 。 对于大多数人而言 ， 我们都是傻瓜 。 如果你通过预测市场涨跌来进行投资 ， 那你就是在和世界范围内最聪明 、 最有耐心 、 资金最雄厚的人来对弈 ， 他们无论为在能力 ， 经验 ， 资源 ， 精力方面完全碾压你 ， 想从他们手中赚绝对收益或者超过收益是不可能的事情 。 想要投资赚钱 ， 必须要承认自己的弱小 ， 才能有所敬畏 ， 有所不为 。 二 、 能立于不败之地的资产配置方案 那么 ， 对于个人投资者 ， 想玩这个游戏还能立于不败之地吗 ， 达利欧给出的答案是可以 ， 就是全天候配置 。 每类资产长期看都是能挣到钱的 ， 但是中间的波动和回撤太大 ， 以至于让很多人拿不住 ， 赚不到钱 。 每种资产虽然波动大 ， 但是都会适应 某种市场环境 。 | | 增长 | 通胀 | | --- | --- | --- ...