在破局重构的时代背景下，AI技术的爆发式发展正重塑产业格局与投资逻辑。 12 月 20 日，在 2025 雪球嘉年华上，资深媒体人周媛与东方港湾董事长、基金经理但斌带来"寻找时代的风向标"的对谈，围绕 AI 革命的本质、投 资方向选择、普通人投资建议等议题展开深度交流，为投资者解析新时代的投资机遇与方向。 01 但斌：站在当前时点展望人工智能的发展，我们认为真正的浪潮正在从技术底层向应用层面传递。 帕兰提尔、蚂蚁阿福等国内外公司的实践已展现 出应用的巨大潜力。因此，我判断明年很可能成为"应用爆发之年"。这一趋势的核心驱动力，在于顶尖科技巨头之间近乎"白热化"的竞争—— OpenAI 与谷歌正相互驱动、全力迭代。 OpenAI 的出现，甚至促使谷歌的创始人重回前线；而 Gemini 的发布，也旋即引发了 OpenAI 的高度警 觉与快速回应。这种顶级对手间全力以赴的"军备竞赛"，恰恰是技术以惊人速度演进的催化剂。可以预见，大模型的迭代将会越来越快。激烈的竞 争终将转化为普世的福祉。到 2026 年，我们很可能将见证一系列真正激动人心的应用落地，深刻改变各行各业，并惠及亿万普通人。这不仅是技 术的进步，更是一个伟 ...

在"破局重构·2025雪球嘉年华"的现场，雪球创始人、董事长方三文坐在台上，连续回答了来自球友的十余个真实问题： 从电动车、人形机器人、AI自动驾驶，到资产配置、私募基金、A 股与海外资产比例，再到普通人如何构建一个真正"拿得住"的投资组合。 与许多人期待的"判断"不同，这场对话中最频繁出现的词，并不是结论，而是 "不知道"、"搞不清楚"、"没必要预测" 。 但正是在这些看似"退一步"的回答里，方三文反复指向了一个更重要的方向：当我们承认认知的边界，用结构替代预测、用分散对抗不确定性，普 通投资者反而更有可能走得更远。 以下，是这场高密度问答的完整实录。 方三文 ：各位上午好！我来搞搞气氛，这些问题是之前雪球上搜集的，现在通过滚动的方法把问题抽出来，给大家回答。 问题1：电动车行业未来会是什么情况？ 方三文："一杯咖啡一本书"用户问的。第一，电动车相对于传统燃油车有非常大的体验提升，所以它会是替代，对燃油车替代，但替代比例多高， 现在说不好。总的来说，中国是电动车对燃油车替代程度最高的国家。 第二，电动车行业还属于汽车行业，电动车之间的竞争依然会非常剧烈，和传统的燃油车时代竞争格局变化没有那么大，可能只是换成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is expected to enter an extraordinary "bull market" in 2025, driven by industry trends, fundamental improvements, and external liquidity narratives, with significant attention on the subsequent direction of the "bull market" in 2026 [1] Group 1: Credit Expansion Direction - The global market in 2025 exhibited several counterintuitive characteristics, including diverse asset performance and significant asset rotation, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, where different themes emerged each quarter [3] - Credit expansion is identified as the core explanatory logic for these phenomena, providing insights into the relative performance of tech stocks, dollar trends, and global asset flows [3] Group 2: U.S. Economic Recovery and Stock Market - The discussion on "de-dollarization" reveals that while it exists, it is not a universal trend, as some funds are increasing their holdings in U.S. Treasuries while others push gold prices to new highs, indicating a bifurcation in global asset allocation [5] - The U.S. economy and stock market are expected to recover, with a potential for overheating, particularly in the AI sector, which, while having high expectations, has not yet reached the exuberance seen during the 2000 internet bubble [5][6] - U.S. fiscal policy is projected to expand in 2026, with the "Great American Rescue Plan" potentially contributing an additional 1% to growth, and the real estate market may recover if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [6] Group 3: Chinese Market and Scarce Return Assets - The Chinese market in 2026 is characterized by excess liquidity chasing scarce return assets, with macro liquidity remaining ample despite insufficient effective demand [8][9] - The real estate sector is crucial for influencing household balance sheets and consumer expectations, which in turn affect market participation and wealth effects [9] - The effectiveness of macro policies in 2026 will depend on their ability to stimulate private sector leverage, focusing on matching costs and returns to sustain credit expansion [9] Group 4: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 should focus on four key sectors: AI and dividend stocks, strong cyclical sectors like copper and aluminum, and selective new consumption stocks that may offer long-term value [10]

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is expected to be a significant year for gold and copper, driven by both structural and cyclical factors, with gold prices reaching new highs due to investment demand and geopolitical influences [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold and Copper - Both gold and copper are influenced by cyclical factors, such as economic conditions, and structural factors, which are independent of these cycles [2][3] - For copper, a structural supply shortage is anticipated due to geopolitical issues and resource nationalism, alongside increased demand driven by tariffs and AI expectations [3] - Gold is expected to benefit from a cyclical tailwind due to declining economic growth and interest rates in the U.S., as well as structural support from new tariff policies starting in April 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The investment framework remains focused on fundamental supply and demand relationships, with AI enhancing research and trading efficiency [5][6] - Central bank gold purchases have significantly altered the supply-demand balance, driven by concerns over U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical risks [8][9] - In copper, a notable increase in U.S. copper inventories and potential tariffs on imports are expected to shift supply dynamics [9] Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - The changing geopolitical landscape is reshaping global production and consumption patterns, with both the U.S. and China adjusting their strategies [10][12] - A new model called "3+ factors" has been developed to analyze the impact of monetary factors, inflation, and geopolitical risks on gold prices [13] Group 4: Long-term Investment Value of Gold - Investors are advised to balance growth and safety in their portfolios, recognizing that gold represents a safe asset while also considering inflation risks [15][16] - The structural and cyclical benefits for gold in 2025 may not persist into 2026, necessitating a cautious approach to future investments [17][18]

Market Correction Reasons - The recent correction in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to three main factors: weak domestic demand reflected in consumption, investment, and real estate growth; the offshore nature of the market which makes it sensitive to overseas policies, liquidity, and geopolitical issues; and liquidity concerns due to a strong US dollar index, reduced overseas funding, and better performance in other markets, which have diverted funds away from Hong Kong stocks [2][3][5]. Long-term Investment Logic - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term investment logic for the Hong Kong technology sector remains intact, with the market potentially entering a left-side layout opportunity. Key points include: - The market behavior suggests that indices or sectors that have declined significantly have a higher probability of future increases [8]. - The long-term momentum of indices like the Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Index remains upward, indicating that the current short-term correction is expected and provides a good entry opportunity from an institutional allocation perspective [8]. - AI is identified as the core theme driving the market, with significant contributions from domestic AI companies, supported by policies like the "14th Five-Year Plan," which may lead to a new wave of technological trends [8][9]. - The influence of southbound funds on the Hong Kong market is significant, with expectations of continued inflows next year, and potential resonance with returning overseas funds if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates more than expected [10]. - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong market is low compared to its historical levels and other major global markets, providing a higher margin of safety [11]. Comparison of Technology Indices - Utilizing index-based tools is crucial for investors to seize opportunities in the Hong Kong market. The comparison of three major technology indices reveals: - The Hang Seng Technology Index covers various technology sectors, while the Hang Seng Internet Index focuses on pure internet platform companies. The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index encompasses internet, hard technology, and biomedicine, offering unique advantages under the Stock Connect mechanism with a higher individual stock weight limit of 15% compared to 8% for the Hang Seng Technology Index, leading to a more balanced distribution [12][13]. - Historically, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has demonstrated stronger growth potential [13]. - In conclusion, the long-term investment value of the Hong Kong technology sector is prominent, and the recent short-term correction presents a configuration opportunity for investors to capture the investment potential of core assets in the AI era [13].

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing volatility in global capital markets and how different investment strategies are performing differently, emphasizing that ordinary investors can accumulate wealth through dedication and market engagement [1] - Three experienced investors shared their practical experiences and strategies at the Xueqiu Carnival, highlighting the importance of adapting investment strategies based on market conditions and personal reflections on past performance [1] Group 2 - The defensive nature of low-risk investments can be assessed through yield calculations, while stock investments should focus on minimizing capital loss by selecting stocks with limited downside and significant upside potential [3][6] - The selling logic for stocks includes both active and passive strategies, with active selling triggered by event-driven changes or slowing performance, and passive selling adhering to strict stop-loss and take-profit rules [6] Group 3 - Reflections on 2025 investments reveal missed opportunities and the importance of decisive action, with lessons learned about the need for independent judgment and avoiding external influences [8][9] - Key investment trends for 2026 include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, and the potential for commodity price increases driven by currency fluctuations [10] Group 4 - Ordinary investors are advised to prioritize loss avoidance over daily profit, with strategies focusing on avoiding overvalued stocks, managing liquidity risks, and maintaining a balanced mindset during market fluctuations [16][19] - The article emphasizes the importance of a disciplined approach to investing, including time investment in learning, recognizing personal biases, and focusing on core investment areas [15]

Group 1 - The current state of the US stock market, particularly in technology, is at a crossroads, with debates on whether to continue investing or to withdraw, reflecting a complex discussion beyond simple bullish or bearish sentiments [1][3] - The volatility in the tech sector has increased, prompting comparisons to the dot-com bubble of 2000, raising concerns about whether the market is nearing a bubble burst [3][4] - Investors are advised to analyze individual company financials to assess whether valuations are inflated, with some investors currently holding cash due to perceived overvaluation in certain stocks [4][6] Group 2 - The discussion includes the importance of understanding the business models of companies, with a focus on those that leverage network effects and have strong brand loyalty, such as Facebook and credit card companies [8][10] - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 is around 21, indicating that the market is not excessively overvalued compared to historical averages [11][12] - The global stock markets, including the US and China, are viewed as reasonably priced, with P/E ratios slightly above historical averages, suggesting that there is no immediate bubble [12][13] Group 3 - AI is characterized as a long-term innovation wave rather than a cyclical trend, with significant implications for investment strategies [14][15] - The value chain in the AI sector is expected to shift from hardware providers to software and application developers, indicating a potential change in investment focus [16][17] - Companies that can demonstrate strong cash flow and sustainable business models in the AI space are likely to be more resilient and less risky investments [30][32] Group 4 - The importance of verifying company claims regarding future revenues and orders is emphasized, as investors should not take such statements at face value [23][29] - Business models that are asset-light and leverage partnerships, like Marriott's franchise model, are highlighted as superior compared to capital-intensive models [28][29] - The focus should be on companies that can effectively utilize AI to enhance productivity and efficiency, rather than those that merely rely on AI hype [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses strategies for maintaining stable investment returns in a fluctuating market, emphasizing the importance of diversified asset allocation and disciplined investment approaches [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed 4000 points, leading many to believe a bull market has arrived [2]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, many investors are still experiencing losses, highlighting the complexity of the current market environment [3][10]. - The current bull market differs from previous ones in terms of valuation recovery, policy support, and the emergence of new investment tools like ETFs [9]. Group 2: Investment Challenges - A significant percentage of retail investors are reportedly losing money this year, with estimates suggesting that up to 80% may be in the red [11]. - Key reasons for losses include chasing high prices during a bull market and failing to adapt to rapidly changing market conditions [12][13]. - Emotional decision-making and lack of clear investment goals contribute to poor performance in a bull market [13]. Group 3: Investment Selection - Investors are encouraged to build diversified portfolios that include a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities to mitigate risks [15][16]. - Specific asset allocations mentioned include a focus on low-volatility indices, international markets, and commodities like gold [17]. - The importance of understanding personal risk tolerance and setting realistic return expectations is emphasized [19][20]. Group 4: Diversification Strategies - Diversification is crucial for reducing volatility and managing risk, especially in a market characterized by rapid changes [22]. - The article discusses the significance of both market and asset diversification, suggesting that different markets may not always move in tandem [26]. - The potential for simultaneous declines in various asset classes during extreme market conditions is acknowledged, but historical data suggests such occurrences are rare [25]. Group 5: Long-term Perspectives - The article argues that while diversified strategies may underperform during certain bull market phases, they provide stability and lower volatility over the long term [29][30]. - Investors are advised to focus on their own investment goals rather than comparing their performance to high-flying indices [31]. - The importance of maintaining a balanced approach and being prepared for market fluctuations is reiterated [39].

Group 1 - The market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past year, with a noticeable rebound in indices and structural differentiation among assets [2][3] - The concept of "reconstruction" has emerged as a central theme among various experts, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investment strategies [4] - The capital market's heat is gradually rising, as evidenced by the increasing number of participants in investment events, reflecting a recovery from previous downturns [6] Group 2 - The performance of Chinese assets has exceeded expectations, with the A-share market showing resilience and the Hong Kong market demonstrating strong IPO financing and index performance [12] - Chinese companies are increasingly enhancing their competitiveness and expanding their operations globally, indicating a rebalancing of business strategies [8] - The trend of increasing dividends and share buybacks among Chinese companies suggests a shift towards balancing growth and shareholder returns [8] Group 3 - The investment landscape for 2026 is expected to be influenced by factors such as U.S. interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, and the appreciation of the RMB, which may lead to a revaluation of RMB assets [13] - The anticipated explosion of AI applications in 2026 is likened to the real estate boom of 2006, indicating a significant investment opportunity in this sector [15] - The gold market is experiencing a surge, with historical data showing that gold has provided substantial long-term returns, suggesting its continued investment value [17] Group 4 - The divergence in monetary policies between the U.S. and Japan is expected to impact the growth and value styles in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals that are less sensitive to interest rate changes [18] - The current market structure is highly differentiated, with increasing investment demand in sectors that enhance productivity and health, indicating a long-term trend regardless of interest rate fluctuations [18]

以下文章来源于我画你财 ，作者我画你财 我画你财 . 告别枯燥理论，看图学习理财。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 投资， 买入 容易 卖出 难。 都说会卖的才是师父，何时止盈锁定收益，正是投资从入门到进阶的关键。 今天分享一下止盈的方法，看看哪种最简单、好操作。 1. 目 标 止盈 法： 定一个 【明确目标】 方式是 入场前定规 则，达标后必执行 。 就像出门前定好目的地，到点就下车。 第一步： 根据买的 基金 类型，设置不同的 预期 收益 率 。 风险高的收益目标要定高一点，风险低的定太高也达不到： 第二步， 严格执行，不恋战 一旦收益达标，就要果断动手，这一点尤其重要！ 实操难度： ★★★★★（最难） 适合人群： 严守 纪律的 冷血 投资人 目标 止盈 法 看似最容易，实际最难了。 2. 最大回撤 止盈 法：涨时跟得上，跌时跑得快 这是第一个目标止盈法的升级版，同样也是先定一个预期收益率，再加设一个下跌线。 超过预期收益率后不卖，如果继续涨就拿着，下跌的话到了下跌线就卖出。 实操难度： ★★★★★ 既要对抗人性的贪婪和恐惧，还要有准确的市场判断和择时能力。 否则要么在一直下跌的熊市，没熬到目标收益 ...