雪球

Search documents
经历了3年弯路,3次毒打!我终于凝练出理财的终极答案...
雪球· 2025-06-27 10:34
风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 小玄fire计划 来源:雪球 市场曾给我三次痛击 : 弯路一 : 投机陷阱 2024年国庆 " 924行情 " 中 , 被媒体渲染的 " 牛市 " 裹挟入场 , 节后首日追高即深套 。 血 泪教训 : 消息驱动的投机永远是击鼓传花的游戏 。 弯路二 : 高估加仓 美股定投初期小赚后 , 2024年9月起大额定投重仓投入 。 尽管标普500 、 纳指100持续高位 震荡 , 仍盲目相信 " 长牛神话 " , 直至2025年4月关税黑天鹅两日暴跌10%被迫割肉 。 警醒 : 无视估值的安全边际就是悬崖边跳舞 。 弯路三 : 伪分散之殇 指数化 →告别个股黑箱 , 拥抱市场β收益 ; 攻守兼备 : 15%A股红利低波+15%A股现金流指数 ( a股稳健资产 ) 全球对冲 : 15%标普500+15%纳指100 ( 美股核心资产 ) 危机缓冲 : 8%黄金ETF+2%原油期货 ( 抗通胀黑天鹅 ) 曾以为持有十几只基金就是分散风险 , 结果持仓高度同质化 , 暴涨暴跌如过山车 。 直到学习 资产相关性理论才顿悟 : 真正的分 ...
超级大爆单,1小时大定近29万台!小米股价盘中创历史新高,市值超1.5万亿港元...
雪球· 2025-06-27 04:32
今天上午市场依旧活跃,全市场超3600只个股上涨 。 沪深两市半日成交额9913亿 , 较上个交易日放量138亿 。截至午间收盘 , 沪指跌0.21% , 深成指涨0.85% , 创业板指涨1.16% 。 板块方面,券商股盘中拉升,有色金属大涨;银行 、 保险 、 港口等板块跌幅居前 。 个股上面,今天市场最热的要数小米了,新车订单量爆棚,股价盘中创历史新高。 01 今早港股开盘后,小米股价一度大涨超6%,最高涨至61.45港元,创历史新高,截至发稿有所回落,涨3.43%,总市值超1.5万亿港元。 此外,小米汽车概念股开盘大涨,电工合金20 cm 涨停,模塑科技直线拉涨停,海泰科、凯众股份、德迈仕等跟涨。 | 用工合命 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300697 休盘中06-27 11:44:12 北京 | | | | | | 13.87 +2.31 +19.98% | | | 1.20万人加自选 图 > > | CN L1 | | 高 13.87 开 12.41 | | 量 44.05万手 | 总市值 60.01亿 | | | 低 12.30 | 换 ...
雪球资管荣获中国私募基金金长江奖三项大奖
雪球· 2025-06-27 04:32
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recognition of Xueqiu Asset Management at the 2024 Jin Changjiang Awards, showcasing its strong asset allocation capabilities and outstanding product performance, which led to multiple awards in the private equity sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Achievements - Xueqiu Asset Management won three awards at the 2024 Jin Changjiang Awards, including the "Fast-Growing Private Fund Company" and two "Annual Rising Star Private Fund Manager" awards for its managers [1][2][3]. - The company has managed to exceed a total management scale of 10 billion since its inception in 2015, positioning its core strategies among the top in the industry [4][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The macro-hedging strategy led by manager Yang Xinbin focuses on global asset risk-balanced allocation, aiming for long-term stable absolute returns while controlling risk and volatility [5]. - The stock long/short strategy managed by Chen Juntao emphasizes value investment, utilizing a contrarian approach with a focus on high certainty and low valuation, while diversifying investments across different markets to mitigate risks [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Context - The private equity industry is entering a new phase that emphasizes higher quality and sustainable development, with strategy innovation and refinement being key drivers for growth [7][8]. - Strengthening risk control, deepening long-term rational investment philosophies, and enhancing client experience are essential for firms to stand out in the evolving industry landscape [8].
格雷厄姆、施洛斯关注的一个指标,筛选出炉这些基金
雪球· 2025-06-27 04:32
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategy focusing on funds with a price-to-book ratio (P/B) between 1.05 and 2.00, highlighting the potential for value investing in this range [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The article references Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy, emphasizing that a P/B ratio below 2 indicates a moderate or low valuation risk [3]. - Walter Schloss, a student of Graham, successfully invested in assets with a P/B ratio not exceeding 1.5, achieving notable returns [3]. - The author aims to expand the criteria to include funds with a P/B ratio between 1.05 and 2.00, identifying 1242 funds that meet the initial criteria [4][5]. Group 2: Fund Selection Criteria - The selected funds must be equity-oriented, with a stock allocation greater than 50% and a total fund size exceeding 0.5 billion [5]. - After filtering for fund managers with at least three years of tenure, 595 funds remain, which are further narrowed down to 71 based on their Sharpe ratio over the past three years [5]. - The article provides a detailed ranking of these 71 funds based on their Sharpe ratio, including metrics such as institutional ownership, stock allocation, average P/E and P/B ratios, and historical returns [5]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The article mentions that the remaining funds are evaluated based on their three-year performance metrics, including maximum drawdown and Calmar ratio [5][8]. - A final selection of 54 funds is made after excluding those with a maximum drawdown greater than -30%, indicating a focus on risk management [8].
一个90后程序员的投资进阶之道:六年试错,通过这种方式破解A股魔咒
雪球· 2025-06-26 08:54
Group 1 - The article discusses the author's journey into investment and financial management, highlighting the transition from casual saving to a more structured investment approach [2][3]. - The author emphasizes the importance of learning from various financial literature and adapting investment strategies over time, particularly during market downturns [4][10]. - The introduction of the "Three-Part Method" for fund investment is presented as a systematic approach to balance risk and return, utilizing a diversified portfolio [7][11]. Group 2 - The "Three-Part Method" consists of three types of funds: a bond fund, a stock fund, and a commodity fund, aimed at achieving a balanced investment strategy [6][7]. - The article provides performance metrics for the investment portfolio, showing a cumulative return of +78.38% compared to the -4.32% return of the CSI 300 Index, indicating superior performance [9]. - The author highlights the significance of data analysis and historical backtesting in refining investment strategies, ensuring that risk and returns are predictable and manageable [10][11].
为什么红利增强基金,很难做出显著超额?
雪球· 2025-06-26 07:51
以下文章来源于范范爱养基 ,作者范范 范范爱养基 . 他这么一说 , 我才反应过来~好像还真是这样的 ! 专注基金投资分享,说人话,不拽词!不保证说的都对,但都是当下我最最真实的想法。(雪球号同名) 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 范范爱养基 来源:雪球 最近不是在看 " 指数增强 " 基金嘛,招商中证2000增强策略ETF现任基金经理 邓童 的一段讲话 。 邓童说 : 红利指数的增强比宽基指数更难 。 在测试时发现 , 中证2000指数的超额收益可以高达30%以 上 , 但是红利指数的超额收益能有大几个点就很不错了 。 红利指数基金火了这么多年了 , 确实没有看到 " 红利增强策略基金 " 脱颖而出 , 更没有火出圈的 ! 邓童给到的解释是 : " 红利 " 本身就是一个历史表现很好的 " 因子 " , 这时再去叠加常用的 " ROE或者 低PB " 等因子 , 基本不起作用 。 ( 除非 , 找到独特的因子 ) 想想也是~ " 红利低波 " 指数 , 自带估值筛选规则 ; " 红利质量 " 指数 , 又自带盈利能力的筛选 ; 这些红利指数本身就 ...
太刺激了!上午暴涨近90%,下午翻绿!250亿资金搏杀,天量巨震!股民:买到高位的亏麻了...
雪球· 2025-06-26 07:51
军工板块领涨两市,兵装重组概念大涨超8%;银行股逆市走强,工商银行等11只银行股再创历史新高;稳定币概念继续活跃,国泰君安国际高位 巨震。下跌方面,创新药、半导体跌幅居前。 连涨3天之后,今天市场窄幅震荡,交投氛围依然活跃,全天成交达1.58万亿。截至收盘,沪指 跌0.22% , 深成指 跌0.48% , 创业板指跌 0.66%。 一起来看下今天的热点。 01 国泰君安国际 冲高回落,百亿搏杀 稳定币是近期市场的热点板块。吉大正元、京北方、 楚天龙、 格尔软件涨停,信安世纪20%涨停。 热门个股方面,港股国泰君安国际在昨天大涨近200%的基础上大幅高开,并且直线拉升至一度涨近90%,之后迅速回落,一度翻绿转跌。截至发 稿,跌0.81%,成交额将近250亿港元,爆了天量。 消息面上,国泰君安国际获香港证监会批准,将现有证券交易牌照升级为可提供虚拟资产交易服务并提供意见。 该消息直接引爆市场。 雪球APP上不少投资者也惊叹于国泰君安国际的巨震。 据香港证监会披露,目前获批可通过综合账户提供虚拟资产交易服务的机构共计40家,除了国泰君安国际之外,还有天风证券旗下的天风国际、东 方财富旗下的哈富证券,以及富途证券(香 ...
为什么做价值投资比较难
雪球· 2025-06-26 07:51
价值投资要求投资者长期持有优质资产 , 等待价值回归 , 但人性中的短期逐利倾向与此天然 对立 。 时间成本高昂 : 企业成长周期往往跨越数年甚至数十年 , 期间需经历经济周期 、 行业波动 、 管理层变动等多重考验 。 例如 , 巴菲特投资可口可乐等案例的成功 , 依赖于数十年持有 而非短期交易 。 心理煎熬 : 市场短期波动 ( 如股价腰斩 、 长期横盘 ) 易引发自我怀疑 , 而 " 错失恐惧 " ( FOMO ) 驱使投资者追逐热门股 。 例如 , 2020年科技股暴涨期间 , 坚守低估值蓝筹的 投资者可能面临巨大心理压力 。 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 宗哥投资 来源:雪球 价值投资作为长期被推崇的投资理念 , 其理论框架看似简单 ( 如 " 买股票即买企业所有权 " " 安全边际 " 等 ) , 但实践中的高难度源于多重复杂因素的叠加 。 结合搜索结果中的观点 , 以下从五个核心维度解析其难点 : 一 、 时间与耐心的考验 : 长期主义与人性本能的冲突 企业分析的复杂性 : 需穿透财务表象 , 评估管理层能力 、 护城河 、 竞争壁 ...
医药估值重估逻辑
雪球· 2025-06-25 07:47
Core Viewpoint - The game rules for innovative drugs have changed by 2025, with overseas giants valuing early-stage R&D in China, prompting institutions to reassess their valuations and investment strategies [11] Group 1: Historical Context - Previously, investment institutions focused only on "quickly sellable drugs," disregarding early-stage pipelines due to high risks, with a failure rate of 90% in early projects [2] - Traditional valuation models, such as PE ratios, only considered current profits, leading to the neglect of early pipeline values in innovative drug companies [3] Group 2: Changes by 2025 - Starting in 2025, major pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and Merck began aggressively acquiring Chinese innovative drug pipelines, especially early-stage projects, with notable transactions such as a $12.5 billion upfront payment for a PD-1/VEGF dual antibody from 3SBio, totaling $60.5 billion [4] - The technological advancements in Chinese innovative drugs have shifted from imitation to global leadership, exemplified by BeiGene's cancer drug generating $2.6 billion in annual sales in the U.S. [5] - The expiration of patents for major drugs has led to increased acquisitions from China [6] Group 3: Industry Reactions - Pharmaceutical companies are investing heavily in early-stage projects, with 35% of the 672 billion yuan spent on R&D in 2024 directed towards early-stage initiatives [7] - CRO companies are experiencing a surge in orders as pharmaceutical firms outsource early-stage research, with AI technologies reducing research timelines and increasing demand for CRO services [8] Group 4: Investment Logic Transformation - The investment logic has shifted from counting "fruits" (marketed drugs) to counting "buds" (potential future products), utilizing new algorithms like rNPV to assess pipeline success rates and future earnings [9] - The secondary market has responded positively, with the PE ratio for innovative drug stocks in Hong Kong rising from 15x to 22x [10]
大涨!牛市旗手大爆发,有券商单日暴涨100%!千亿资金涌入!股民:券商不演了,牛回速归....
雪球· 2025-06-25 07:47
Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.03%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.72%, and ChiNext Index up 3.11% [1] - The total market turnover reached 16,394 billion, an increase of 1,915 billion compared to the previous day, with over 3,900 stocks rising [1] Group 2: Brokerage Sector Performance - The brokerage sector has seen three consecutive days of gains, with a significant inflow of 100 billion today, resulting in an overall increase of 4.54% in the sector [2][4] - Notable stocks such as Guosen Securities and Xiangcai Securities have hit the daily limit, while others like Dongfang Caifu and Guotai Junan also experienced gains [4] Group 3: Policy Support for Financial Sector - Recent guidelines from multiple financial regulatory bodies aim to bolster macroeconomic foundations and stabilize consumer expectations, emphasizing the use of various monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and lower financing costs [4] - The guidelines also focus on enhancing the capital market's function in coordinating investment and financing, promoting the entry of long-term funds into the market [4] Group 4: Financial Sector Outlook - CITIC Securities reports that the financial sub-industry benefits from favorable macro and industrial policies, a low-interest-rate environment, and the emergence of core competitiveness among top financial institutions [5] - The report suggests that two types of companies will benefit: high-quality index-weighted stocks and growth stocks expected to outperform industry benchmarks within three years [5] Group 5: Hong Kong Brokerage Developments - Guotai Junan International has received approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its existing securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services, allowing clients to trade cryptocurrencies and stablecoins directly [7] Group 6: Alcohol Industry Insights - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped, with the wholesale reference price for 2025 Feitian Moutai original box down by 85 yuan to 1,830 yuan per bottle, and the scattered bottle price down by 70 yuan to 1,780 yuan [9] - Despite initial declines, the liquor sector saw a slight recovery, closing up 0.18% as market sentiment improved due to the brokerage sector's performance [9] Group 7: Military Industry Trends - The military sector experienced a significant rise, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, including Changcheng Military Industry, which has seen five consecutive days of gains [12] - Research indicates that the military industry is entering a new development phase with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" and increased public interest due to commemorative events related to historical victories [14]