Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.96%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.74 trillion yuan, a decrease of 45 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Over 2,700 stocks rose in value [1]. Group 1: Commodity Market and Related Stocks - The domestic commodity futures market saw a widespread decline, with coking coal dropping by 11% and several other commodities, including coking coal and lithium carbonate, hitting their daily limit down. This decline in the commodity market negatively impacted related A-share sectors, particularly coal stocks, which led the market downturn [2][3]. - The coal sector followed the futures market's significant correction, with Shanxi Coking Coal falling over 6%, and other companies like Jinkong Coal and Pingmei Shenma also experiencing declines [4]. - Lithium mining stocks, including Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, collectively retreated as well [6]. Group 2: Film and Entertainment Sector - The film and entertainment sector saw a collective surge, with the summer box office surpassing 5.2 billion yuan. Notable stocks like Happiness Blue Sea and China Film reached their daily limit up [10][11]. - As of July 28, the summer box office (including pre-sales) exceeded 5.2 billion yuan, with a single-day box office surpassing 300 million yuan for the first time in 154 days, indicating a rise in market enthusiasm [13]. - The success of films like "Nanjing Photo Studio," which achieved a single-day box office of over 100 million yuan, has significantly boosted the sector's performance, reflecting a temporary recovery in market confidence driven by high-quality content [13]. Group 3: Notable Stock Performance - A-share market witnessed the emergence of its first tenfold stock of 2025, with the stock of Aowei New Materials hitting a historical high after a 20% increase. The stock has surged over 900% since July, marking a tenfold increase year-to-date [14][15]. - The price surge of Aowei New Materials is primarily attributed to the acquisition plan by Zhiyuan Robotics, which has led to a rapid increase in stock price following the announcement [15]. - Despite the stock's impressive performance, caution is advised as the company has stated there are no plans for asset sales or mergers in the next 12 months, highlighting potential market uncertainties [16].

Group 1 - The article discusses the investment strategies of hedge funds, particularly AQR, which has successfully navigated various market crises and currently manages over $200 billion in assets [2][4][5] - AQR's investment philosophy emphasizes risk management and the use of scientific methods to create verifiable and back-testable strategies [5][6] - The article highlights the importance of understanding the underlying logic of investments, including the potential pitfalls of relying on past performance [8][10] Group 2 - AQR's approach includes diversifying across asset classes, strategies, and geographies to mitigate risks [14][15][17] - The article suggests that a balanced asset allocation, such as the classic "60-40" stock-bond mix, can be optimized based on economic conditions [19][20][22] - Practical investment advice is provided, emphasizing the importance of patience and long-term holding of quality assets rather than attempting to time the market [26][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of transitioning from speculative trading to long-term and value investing, particularly in undervalued blue-chip stocks like bank shares, which are seen as stable and essential for economic recovery [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market is at a crossroads, with a significant focus on low-valued blue-chip stocks, especially bank shares, which are expected to lead a slow bull market [2]. - Despite the recent hype around speculative stocks, the article suggests that this is an opportune moment for investors to shift their focus to undervalued bank stocks as a safer investment strategy [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Speculative trading is characterized as a zero-sum game that ultimately harms the health of the capital market, leading to short-term volatility without sustainable economic support [3]. - In contrast, bank stocks are portrayed as the backbone of the capital market, providing stable dividends and significant investment value, especially during economic recovery phases [3][4]. Group 3: Long-term Perspective - Long-term and value investing is framed as a wise investment strategy that focuses on the intrinsic value and long-term growth of companies, rather than short-term speculation [4]. - The article calls for a collective shift away from the illusions of speculative trading towards a more grounded approach in investing, particularly in undervalued blue-chip stocks [4].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 巴菲特就是以"创业家"的角色起步的。创业家的标准定义是，那些为了获取利润而创建自由企业 的人。作为一位典型的创业家，巴菲特以创业一家投资合伙企业起步，并通过发挥他的企业管理 才能，将其事业发展成为全球最受尊敬的公司之一。他的投资生涯以及他对伯克希尔-哈撒韦的领 导，充分展现了他的创业精神。所以，他身兼企业家与投资家的双角色。 巴菲特很早就树立了"为自己工作"的理想。他从6岁起，就通过各种各样的生意为自己赚钱。到25 岁时，他创立了巴菲特合伙公司，并很快成为百万富翁（以今天的美元购买力计算）了。他的个 人和社会背景，使得他能成为有史以来最成功的企业家之一的重要基石。正如芬克尔所指出的， 巴菲特的性格和价值观无疑是由巴菲特家族的创业传统塑造，包括他的外祖父经营的印刷厂和他 的祖父欧内斯特·巴菲特创办的杂货店。巴菲特拥有所有企业家共有的许多特质。 企业家有实现目标的超强动力，他们愿意坦承自己的错误，而不是指责别人。他们是敢于冒险的 人，对不确定性的容忍度较高，但对一项事业成功的可能性有着比较敏锐的实用主义意识。换句 话说，他们并不鲁莽。大多数企业家都很独立，拥有坚如磐石的自信和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses serious allegations against Huaxi Biological, a leading player in the medical aesthetics industry, regarding financial misconduct and governance issues, which have led to significant market concerns and a drastic decline in the company's stock price and market value [1][3][10]. Company Response - Huaxi Biological quickly responded to the allegations, stating that the claims are fabricated and maliciously distorted, and they have reported the matter to law enforcement [2][6][9]. Allegations and Background - The whistleblower, who claims to be a former key capital operator at Huaxi Biological, alleges financial fraud and governance failures, asserting possession of 450,000 words of insider material intended for regulatory submission [1][3][8]. - The whistleblower previously held a position as the marketing director at Huaxi and was involved in a case of embezzlement amounting to 9 million yuan, which led to a police report by the company [8]. Market Impact - Following the allegations, Huaxi Biological's stock price has seen a dramatic decline, from a peak of 314.99 yuan per share in July 2021 to approximately 53.83 yuan per share, representing a drop of over 80% and a market capitalization reduction from over 1,000 billion yuan to 259 billion yuan [11][13]. Financial Performance - The company's financial performance has deteriorated significantly, with a reported revenue of 5.371 billion yuan in 2024, down 11.61% year-on-year, and a net profit of 174 million yuan, down 70.59%, marking the largest annual decline since its listing [13][14]. - In comparison, competitors like Juzhi Biological and Jinbo Biological have shown strong growth, with Juzhi achieving a revenue increase of 57.07% and a net profit growth of 42.06% in 2024 [13][14]. Industry Context - The medical aesthetics industry is undergoing intense competition, with Huaxi Biological facing challenges from competitors like Juzhi Biological, which has seen its market value rise significantly [16][18]. - The article highlights a shift in consumer expectations towards product safety and efficacy, indicating that mere concept marketing is no longer sustainable, and companies must possess genuine technological advantages to succeed [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of the "All Weather Strategy" in investment, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation across stocks, bonds, and commodities to achieve stable returns regardless of market conditions [48]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 1971, President Nixon announced the prohibition of foreign central banks from exchanging dollars for gold, which shocked the global market [3]. - Contrary to expectations, the U.S. stock market surged the following day, defying predictions of a downturn from prominent investors like Ray Dalio [5][7]. Group 2: Investment Concepts - Investment is not limited to stocks; it includes cash deposits, gold, and real estate, categorized into three main asset classes: stocks, bonds, and commodities [13]. - The price movements of these asset classes are influenced by different core factors, leading to low or negative correlations among them [17]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Asset Prices - Stock prices are primarily influenced by three factors: market sentiment, economic indicators, and company performance [18]. - Bond prices are affected by interest rates and credit risk, where higher deposit rates lead to lower bond prices, and poor credit ratings necessitate lower bond prices to attract buyers [20][22]. - Commodity prices are driven by inflation and supply-demand dynamics, where excess supply leads to price drops and limited supply causes price increases [24][25]. Group 4: All Weather Strategy - The All Weather Strategy aims to create a diversified portfolio that can generate returns in any market condition by investing in all three asset classes [30]. - The strategy incorporates "risk parity," which adjusts the asset allocation based on the risk levels of each asset class to maintain a stable overall portfolio volatility [33][39]. - Portfolio adjustments are necessary as market conditions change, requiring active management to optimize asset allocation [43]. Group 5: Limitations and Market Behavior - The All Weather Strategy is not infallible; extreme market events can disrupt the typical low or negative correlations among asset classes, leading to simultaneous declines [46]. - Despite its limitations, the strategy is designed to recover from such disruptions, as market conditions normalize over time [47]. Group 6: Conclusion - The All Weather Strategy's strength lies in its non-predictive approach and risk-adjusted asset allocation, aiming for profitability in various market scenarios [48]. - The article contrasts this strategy with speculative investment behaviors, advocating for diversified, multi-asset approaches over concentrated bets on single stocks or sectors [48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential recovery of the liquor industry, particularly the white wine sector, highlighting that stock prices may rebound before actual performance improvements are observed [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a significant influx of off-market funds into the liquor industry as investors anticipate a recovery, leading to increased buying activity [2]. - Fund holdings in major brands like Moutai are notably low, suggesting that even a slight increase in positions could lead to substantial price increases [2]. - The white wine sector has experienced a price decline for four years, but loyal consumers remain, indicating a potential for price recovery with reduced selling pressure [2]. Group 2: Performance Indicators - A performance turning point for the liquor industry is expected around 2025, with stock price recoveries likely occurring beforehand [3]. - The stock price of Laojiao has already increased by 20% from 107 yuan, which is often seen as a bullish indicator in the market [3]. - The lowest point in this cycle was likely around 98 yuan last September, suggesting that the market has already priced in known risks [3]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - The consumption of liquor is expected to rise due to increased consumer spending driven by stable real estate prices and a bullish stock market [3]. - The article emphasizes that the best time to enter the market is often when the majority feel pessimistic, indicating a contrarian investment opportunity [3]. - The stability of the market price for premium products, such as Feitian at over 1800 yuan, reflects a healthier supply-demand balance than perceived by many [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's investment journey in bank stocks over five years, highlighting the use of a unique metric called "市赚率" (Market Earnings Ratio) to identify undervalued stocks and make investment decisions [3][8]. Investment Strategy - The author developed the Market Earnings Ratio (PR) formula as PR = PE / ROE / 100, inspired by Warren Buffett's investment philosophy [3]. - The author adjusted the target price for H-shares from 1.0 PR to 0.8 PR due to liquidity and dividend yield concerns [3]. - A correction factor (N) was introduced based on dividend payout ratios, with different coefficients for varying payout levels [3]. Historical Performance - In 2020, the author successfully identified and invested in Postal Savings Bank H-shares, which were undervalued with a correction market earnings ratio of 0.4 PR [4]. - In 2021, after recognizing the high provision coverage of Postal Savings Bank, the author recalculated PE and ROE, leading to a significant increase in stock price [5]. - In 2022, after a management change, the author invested in China Merchants Bank H-shares, which also became undervalued [6]. - In 2023, China Merchants Bank H-shares saw a price doubling, but the author realized the mistake of considering high provisions as hidden profits, leading to a reevaluation of investment strategies [6]. Current Market Analysis - By 2024, the author decided to completely liquidate Postal Savings Bank H-shares and increased holdings in China Merchants Bank H-shares, reflecting a strategic shift based on market conditions [7]. - As of 2025, the average valuations for major banks were noted, with the author choosing to exit positions due to perceived overvaluation in the banking sector [8]. - The article emphasizes that the Market Earnings Ratio aligns with discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation principles, suggesting a potential upward adjustment in reasonable valuations due to low interest rates [8].

Group 1 - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new all-time highs, with the S&P 500 closing at a record for the fifth consecutive time and the Nasdaq achieving this milestone four times in the same week [2][5] - Major tech stocks saw an increase, with Tesla rising over 3% as CEO Elon Musk projected a valuation of $20 trillion for the company, while Microsoft, Google, and Broadcom had gains of less than 1% [6] - Intel's stock fell over 8% after announcing the spin-off of its networking and communications division, which is expected to generate $5.8 billion in revenue for 2024, accounting for approximately 11% of Intel's total sales [7] Group 2 - Optimism in the market was bolstered by a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, with discussions scheduled to address trade cooperation and disputes [9][10] - U.S. President Trump indicated that tariffs on EU imports could be adjusted based on the EU's response to U.S. trade barriers, emphasizing the need for a more equitable trade relationship [10] Group 3 - Concerns about a potential bubble in the U.S. stock market have been raised by Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett, who noted that the risk is increasing as the market continues to reach new highs [11][12] - The U.S. and global policy rates have decreased significantly, with expectations of further reductions, which could contribute to increased market volatility and speculation [13] - Speculative trading activity is at historically high levels, which may indicate both potential for further market gains and increased risk of a downturn [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced asset allocation strategy, particularly the role of bonds as a stabilizing asset in the face of fluctuating stock market conditions. It warns against the human tendency to chase high returns in stocks while neglecting the benefits of bonds, which can provide stability and lower overall investment risk [5][7][10]. Group 1: Market Observations - A-shares have recently surged, surpassing 3600 points, while bond performance has lagged behind, leading many investors to consider liquidating bond funds in favor of stock funds [1][2]. - Historical patterns show that after significant stock market rallies, such as the one in late September 2022, investors who shifted from bonds to stocks often faced subsequent market downturns and missed out on bond market gains [4][6]. Group 2: Behavioral Insights - The desire to sell underperforming bond funds and invest in high-performing stock funds reflects a common psychological bias towards greed, often resulting in "buy high, sell low" behavior [5][6]. - The article highlights that this behavior is prevalent across different asset classes and market cycles, leading to potential losses as investors react to short-term market movements rather than adhering to a disciplined investment strategy [6][10]. Group 3: Importance of Bonds - Bonds are portrayed as undervalued assets that provide essential stability in an investment portfolio, especially during economic downturns or periods of market volatility [7][8]. - The article argues that a diversified strategy that includes bonds can yield better long-term returns compared to a strategy focused solely on stocks, as bonds can perform well in various economic conditions [8][10]. Group 4: Risk Management - Incorporating bonds into an investment strategy can help mitigate risks associated with stock market volatility, allowing investors to maintain their positions during downturns and avoid panic selling [11][12]. - The concept of rebalancing is introduced as a disciplined approach to managing asset allocation, where investors can adjust their portfolios based on predetermined ratios rather than emotional reactions to market changes [12][13].