市场全天震荡调整，沪指尾盘翻红，创业板指领跌。截至收盘，沪指涨0.02%，深成指跌 0.07%，创业板指跌1.21%。个股涨多跌少，全市场超3200只个股上涨。沪深两市全天成交额 1.21万亿，较上个交易日缩量2199亿。 今天盘面上， 电力、电网设备、稳定币、房地产等板块涨幅居前，此前热门板块生物制品、 PCB、CPO、创新药等回调明显。 此外，今天港股因为互联网巨头的外卖大战也吸引了不少投资者关注，一起来看今天热点。 此外，被投资者称为"外卖铲子股"的恒鑫生活20%涨停，公司则是多家餐饮企业的纸制与塑料餐 具提供商。 消息面上，7月5日晚，阿里与美团展开史上最大规模补贴对决，两大平台当天同步放出"满25减 21""满16减16"、"满18减18""25减20"等无门槛大额券。截至7月5日22时54分，美团即时零 售当日订单已经突破了1.2亿单，其中，餐饮订单已超过1亿单。 另据淘宝闪购、饿了么联合宣布，截至7月5日24时，淘宝闪购日订单数超8000万，其中非餐饮 订单超1300万，淘宝闪购日活跃用户超2亿。 7月开始，互联网大厂继续开启狂撒钱模式。淘宝闪购宣布，将在12个月内直补消费者及商家共 500亿元 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：山水Alex 来源：雪球 （ 2 ） 利率大环境 。 西方经济学教材经常提到股市跟利率有很大的相关性 ， 其实在A股这规 律几乎是失灵的 ， 为什么 ？ 因为A股缺长线资金 。 A股的参与者90%以上都是散户 ， 大部分 公募的思路也是偏短期化的 ， 真正有长期资金属性的 ， 也是最近这几年才开始出现 。 不是说保险是长线资金吗 ， 当然不是 ， 保险是这几年才开始皈依长期投资的 ， 之前保险做波 段做的比公募还欢乐 ， 赚不赚钱不知道 ， 但肯定没在股市赚到大钱 ， 那这几年险资为什么老 实了 ， 主要是因为利率大环境 、 资产的可得性 。 险资的资金运营 ， 几年前跟目前有着巨大 的差异 ， 目前50%以上资金配置是债券资产 ， 10-15%的股票和权益类基金 ， 还有其他存款 、 流动性资金啥的 ， 非标资产和房地产类的占比已经非常低 。 以前投资债券占比可能只有 30%左右 ， 股票10%左右 ， 还会有各种非标资产 、 房地产投资等比债券收益率更高的资产可 以挑选 。 但这几年被市场教育后 ， 非标已经非常少 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a unique perspective on small-cap stocks, arguing that their valuation, as measured by price-to-book ratio, remains reasonable despite market fears of a collapse in this segment [3][6]. Group 1: Valuation Insights - The price-to-book ratio for small-cap stocks has decreased significantly from over 4 times in 2016 to 2.23 currently, indicating a drop of more than 50% [3]. - The price-to-book ratio has stabilized around 2 since 2019, with fluctuations between a high of 2.5 in December 2023 and a low of 1.3 in February 2024 [3]. - The use of price-to-book ratio is preferred over price-to-earnings ratio due to the volatility in earnings of small-cap companies, which often leads to distorted valuations [4]. Group 2: Market Perception and Opportunities - Many investors dismiss small-cap stocks as "junk" due to high price-to-earnings ratios, but these companies may have significant upside potential if their earnings improve [5]. - Recent mergers and acquisitions in the small-cap space, where larger companies have invested billions, suggest that these stocks possess inherent value that is not immediately reflected in their financial statements [5]. - The article emphasizes that the current valuation of small-cap stocks is still within a reasonable range, contrary to mainstream market beliefs [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - In 2023, small-cap stocks experienced a remarkable increase, with the Wind Micro Cap Index rising by 47.57%, while major indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 300 fell [7]. - The beginning of 2024 saw a significant downturn for small-cap stocks, with the Wind Micro Cap Index dropping by 34.90% in just two weeks due to liquidity crises triggered by automatic redemption options [8]. - By September 2024, small-cap stocks rebounded significantly, with the trading volume and volatility increasing, leading to a recovery of previous losses and reaching historical net asset value highs [10]. Group 4: Regulatory Changes and Future Outlook - The introduction of new regulations in April 2024 aimed at tightening delisting supervision has raised concerns about small-cap stocks, which are often seen as high-risk for delisting [9]. - The new restructuring regulations introduced in May 2025 simplified the merger and acquisition processes, providing a favorable environment for small-cap stocks [11]. - Overall, the small-cap private equity sector has shown significant resilience and potential for high returns, with some products yielding 60% to 70% returns since their inception [12].

Core Viewpoint - The internal power struggle within Singshan Holdings following the sudden death of its founder, Zheng Yonggang, has led to significant declines in the company's market value and financial performance, with a notable impact on its operations and future outlook [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Conflict - The sudden death of Zheng Yonggang in February 2023, without a will or clear distribution of shares, triggered a family dispute over the control of Singshan Holdings [5][6]. - Zheng Yonggang's estate involves six legal heirs, with his wife, Zhou Ting, claiming 80% of the shares while his son, Zheng Ju, insists he was designated as the successor [6]. - Zheng Ju was elected chairman shortly after his father's death, but this was contested by Zhou Ting, leading to legal battles over the company's control [6][8]. Group 2: Impact on Company Performance - The internal conflict has adversely affected the company's operations, with its market value dropping from approximately 400 billion to 200 billion within two years [3][10]. - Singshan Holdings reported a revenue of 18.68 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.05%, and a net profit loss of 367 million yuan, a significant decline of 147.97% from a profit of 765 million yuan in 2023 [12]. Group 3: Debt Issues and Restructuring - The internal strife has severely impacted the controlling shareholder, Singshan Group, which is facing financial difficulties and has entered judicial restructuring [14][15]. - Singshan Group's debt issues escalated, with over 95% of its debt maturing within a year, totaling 12.62 billion yuan, including 12.04 billion yuan in short-term debt [15]. - The company has been unable to meet its loan obligations, leading to multiple defaults and a court-ordered restructuring process [15]. Group 4: Future Uncertainties - Despite entering restructuring, uncertainties remain for Singshan Holdings, particularly regarding control changes due to ongoing legal and financial challenges [19]. - The shareholding of the controlling party has been decreasing due to judicial auctions, with the latest ownership dropping to 26.36% [19]. - Recent investments by notable individual investors have sparked speculation about potential recovery, as the company's stock is currently undervalued compared to competitors [19][20].

以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 黑貔貅俱乐部 . 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 站在当下看未来的3-5年 ， 反内卷或许会成为影响中国社会以及经济最重要的事件之一 。 映射到资本市场 上也会带来巨大的投资机会 ， 尤其是对商品而言 ， 可能会成为影响部分品种的核心变量 。 尽管大家都在 类比16年的供给侧改革 ， 但是我觉得还是有很大的差异性 。 01 有较大的背景跟性质差异 15年过剩的行业相对集中在中上游领域 ， 产品的同质化竞争是比较严重的 ， 比如钢铁 ， 水泥 ， 电解铝 ， 玻璃等等 ， 大家生成的东西没有多少不同 ， 价格上也没有多少差距 。 而且这种过剩很大程度上是因为 2011-2012年的经济繁荣带来的投资 ， 主要是周期性因素为主 ， 通过棚改货币化刺激需求以及行政手段 压减无效产能 ， 退出效果还是比较显著的 。 但是本轮产能主要集中在终端消费领域 ， 产品的差距还是很大 ， 中低高端都有 ， 很难通过行政命令去去 化 ， 比如光伏是差异化过剩问题 。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the complexity of understanding bank profitability, highlighting that traditional metrics like interest margin, cost of expenses, and asset impairment losses do not provide a complete picture of a bank's true earning capacity [4][20][22]. Group 1: Understanding Bank Profitability - The profitability of banks cannot be solely determined by analyzing interest margins and impairment losses, as these metrics do not allow for effective peer comparison [4][22]. - For example, Bank A with a 2.5% interest margin and Bank B with a 2% interest margin can both achieve the same net profit of 1%, indicating that higher interest margins do not necessarily equate to better profitability [5][6][7]. - The article discusses the importance of understanding the underlying business model and risk management strategies of banks, particularly in the context of small and micro loans [14][18][19]. Group 2: Risk and Business Models - The article presents a case where high-interest loans can be associated with low risk, particularly in regions with strong micro-enterprise demand, suggesting that local knowledge can mitigate risks [11][13]. - It argues that small banks are better positioned to manage small and micro loans due to their flexibility and closer ties to local businesses [18][19]. - The discussion includes the notion that a bank's risk profile cannot be judged solely on its loan portfolio size or interest margins; rather, it requires a deeper analysis of the specific business practices and regional economic conditions [60][66]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Valuation - The article introduces the concept of Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) as critical metrics for evaluating bank performance, with ROA being influenced by interest margin, cost of expenses, and impairment losses [25][31][48]. - A comparison of two banks, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Hangzhou Bank, reveals that despite ICBC having a larger asset base, Hangzhou Bank demonstrates a higher ROA and ROE due to its effective use of leverage [34][48][55]. - The article concludes that Hangzhou Bank's higher valuation should be reflected in its price-to-book (PB) ratio compared to ICBC, suggesting that current market valuations may not accurately represent the banks' underlying performance [76][78].

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed by President Trump, aims to extend tax cuts for corporations and individuals, with a significant focus on reducing corporate taxes [3] - The Act is projected to incur over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next decade, with an increase in the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion and a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling [3] - Critics argue that the Act disproportionately benefits high-income individuals and corporations while cutting social welfare programs, leading to significant reductions in healthcare coverage for low-income Americans [5][6] Group 2 - The Act represents a dramatic shift in U.S. economic and fiscal policy compared to the Biden administration, reversing many of the social welfare expansions and clean energy initiatives [5] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that nearly 12 million people could lose their healthcare coverage as a result of the new law [6] - Discussions among financial analysts suggest that the expansion of the fiscal deficit may support economic stability in the short term, while also raising concerns about long-term debt sustainability [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current macroeconomic environment and its impact on various markets, highlighting the challenges faced by Chinese assets and the importance of long-term investment strategies [2][3]. Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic landscape is described as volatile, with U.S. stocks fluctuating based on political developments, while Hong Kong stocks are experiencing rapid changes similar to A-shares, leading to valuation bubbles and rare A-H share price discrepancies [2]. - The overall microeconomic situation remains stagnant, with a resurgence in certain industries and a decline in real estate, contributing to a spiral of consumption deflation [2]. Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes a cautious approach to investing in assets perceived to be in a bubble, avoiding leveraged business models even if they show short-term gains [3]. - The quality of assets in sectors like banking is declining, yet insurance companies continue to buy shares, creating a disconnect between stock prices and fundamentals [3]. - The company prioritizes long-term investment principles over short-term market fluctuations, focusing on businesses that demonstrate resilience and market share growth during downturns [3][4]. Industry Insights - The e-commerce sector is highlighted as a potential area for growth, despite previous market leaders losing market share; the current environment may present new opportunities for focused players [4]. - The company is optimistic about the potential of the trendy toy market, despite short-term challenges, as it continues to show strong performance metrics [4]. Investment Philosophy - The company advocates for a long-term investment perspective, urging investors to focus on the integrity and correctness of investment decisions rather than short-term net asset value fluctuations [4][5]. - The "three-point method" of investment is introduced, emphasizing diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve long-term returns and risk mitigation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term performance of investment funds, emphasizing the importance of patience and understanding investment strategies over mere results [2][6][8]. Group 1: Long-Term Performance Insights - Investors may need to endure a 10-year period of underperformance before a fund shows its long-term potential [6]. - Many investors lose patience after three consecutive years of underperformance, highlighting the need for a deeper understanding of investment philosophy [6]. - Funds that underperform their benchmarks over a 15-year period often have extended periods of outperformance, suggesting that recent strong performance may not predict future success [6]. Group 2: Investment Cycles and Strategies - The article reflects on the cyclical nature of investment performance, noting that the first ten years of a fund's life can differ significantly from the subsequent ten years [8][9]. - It discusses the necessity of adapting investment strategies to changing market conditions, as past success does not guarantee future results [9]. - The concept of "paying for luck" in the next decade is introduced, indicating that past gains may lead to future challenges [9]. Group 3: Diversification and Risk Management - The article advocates for a diversified investment approach, including asset, market, and time diversification [12][13]. - It suggests that investors should consider a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities across various markets to mitigate risks [12][14]. - The importance of finding a personal investment style that is both effective and reasonable is emphasized, encouraging experimentation and learning from mistakes [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the recent alcohol ban on the liquor industry, highlighting a sharp decline in sales and profits across various segments and regions [2][3]. Industry Overview - The overall liquor industry has experienced a downturn, with a reported 18.7% decline in revenue in Shandong province during the first month of the ban. High-end product lines, such as those from leading brands like Jingzhi and Bandaojiu, saw sales drop by 35%-40%. The inventory turnover period has increased from 45 days to 120 days [3]. - In June, the first full month affected by the policy, most liquor merchants reported a sales and profit decline of over 30%-50% compared to May. Data from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association indicates that 59.7% of liquor companies experienced a decrease in profit margins in the first half of the year [3]. Consumption Patterns - There has been a noticeable reduction in consumption scenarios, particularly in dining settings and events like "Thanking Teachers" and "Graduation Banquets," with significant impacts observed in regions like Guangdong where such events have nearly ceased. Corporate group purchases have also declined, with fewer gatherings in state-owned enterprises [3]. Price and Channel Disparities - The mid-to-high-end price segments (300-800 RMB, especially above 500 RMB) have been hit hardest, with group purchase sales in Jiangsu and Shandong dropping by 60%-70%. Notable brands have seen a decrease in wholesale prices, while mid-to-low-end products in regions like Anhui experienced a 50% decline in sales [4]. - Channel performance varies, with warehouse-style retail remaining stable or slightly increasing, while high-end retail has seen a 15%-20% decline. General retail and group purchases have dropped by 30%, and high-end group purchases and business scenarios have decreased by 50% [4]. Channel Survival Challenges - Many chain liquor stores and tobacco shops are facing significant profit declines, with some businesses in Shandong and Wuhan unable to cover rent and facing potential losses and layoffs. Poor inventory turnover and declining wholesale prices have led to cautious restocking practices [4]. Management Strategies - Liquor manufacturers are advised to "actively wash away" accumulated pressures in the second quarter to prepare for future challenges. The focus should be on achieving better performance than peers rather than absolute results [5]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical comparisons suggest that while the current situation is challenging, it may not be as severe as past crises, such as the plasticizer scandal and the "Eight Regulations" in 2012. The current ban is seen as a less drastic change, with corrective measures already being implemented [8]. - The article posits that the liquor sector's long-term prospects remain positive, with a belief that economic recovery will eventually lead to a resurgence in demand for liquor consumption [9]. Performance Indicators - The worst-case scenario for the liquor industry this year could involve negative growth for all companies except for Moutai. The stability of Moutai's wholesale prices and the sales performance of Wuliangye are viewed as key indicators for market confidence [9].