Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery of domestic cyclical product prices and the improvement in service consumption, indicating a positive trend in the overall economic environment [2][3]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 20.3% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing growth rates of 68.8%, 21.7%, and -19.9% respectively [3]. - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1.0% year-on-year, with a slowdown in price competition and a slight recovery in sales growth [3]. - The service consumption index in Hainan rose by 1.3% month-on-month, with significant increases in movie box office revenues, which surged by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand showed marginal improvement, with steel and glass prices slightly rising, and cement prices stabilizing [4]. - Manufacturing activity improved, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical sectors, and stable hiring intentions among companies [4]. Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices increased by 3.5% month-on-month due to tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling demands [4]. - Industrial metal prices faced pressure due to weak domestic demand and hawkish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve following a rate cut [4]. Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand improved, with a month-on-month increase in air transport demand [4]. - National highway freight traffic and railway freight volume rose by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively [4].

位值主张 聚焦 Z 世代环保电新,紧握产业动态与 政策风向。 国泰海通证券 | 研究所 -112 徐 强 环保电新首席分析师 行业核心洞察 杰文斯悖论下,模 型进步会激发更大 AIDC算力需求 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。 报告名称：deepseek降本后会激发更大算力需求；报告日 期：20250212；报告作者：徐强 S0880517040002；风险提示：存在算力芯片供应不足的风险。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle" with a significant upward trend in profitability by 2026, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Long-term Logic of Aviation - The Chinese aviation industry has established a long-term growth logic, with two key conditions for ticket price increases achieved during the 14th Five-Year Plan: market-oriented pricing and high passenger load factors that can effectively transmit to ticket prices [1]. - The supply side has entered a low-growth era, with airlines rationalizing capital expenditure due to low expected returns on new aircraft, leading to a stable fleet planning [1]. - On the demand side, aviation consumption remains in a low-frequency and low-penetration stage, with the demographic dividend for air travel still intact, supporting a steady long-term growth trend [1]. Group 2: Q3 Performance Insights - Despite a temporary weakening in business travel demand during the summer peak season, airlines are still expected to report profits higher than Q3 2019, aided by reduced fuel costs and a recovery in demand post-September [2]. - The initial recovery in business travel demand in April-May was followed by a dip in July-August, but profitability is projected to increase year-on-year due to favorable pricing dynamics [2]. - The expectation of a strong recovery in business travel demand in September, driven by major events, suggests that airlines may achieve record-high demand levels for this period [2]. Group 3: Q4 Outlook - The upcoming Golden Week is anticipated to drive strong travel demand, with airlines optimistic about pre-sale volumes and pricing [3]. - Monitoring the recovery of business travel demand post-October meetings is crucial, as sustained recovery could lead to a significant increase in airline profitability by 2026 [3]. - The focus on reducing internal competition among state-owned airlines is expected to support profitability improvements and a reduction in losses during the off-peak season [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies are advised to strategically invest in the aviation sector, emphasizing high-quality airline networks, as the long-term logic of the "super cycle" is expected to provide dual opportunities for performance and valuation [3].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of materials as a key indicator for observing industry trends and identifying investment opportunities within leading companies [3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The current landscape indicates that the industry is reaching a bottoming phase before demand recovers, suggesting a potential turning point for investment [3]. - The focus is on how Chinese materials can break through in the context of industrial upgrades and globalization [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that strategic trends among industry leaders can reveal valuable investment opportunities, particularly in the materials sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - Global markets experienced a slight increase last week, with valuations continuing to rise, and the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks dropping to a historical low [1]. Market Performance - Global markets rose slightly last week, with MSCI Global up by 1.0%, MSCI Developed up by 1.0%, and MSCI Emerging up by 1.1%. In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose significantly. Commodity prices saw gold increase slightly, while oil and copper prices fell. Currency-wise, the U.S. dollar remained stable, the British pound depreciated, the Japanese yen depreciated, and the Chinese yuan remained stable. The consumer discretionary and information technology sectors performed notably well [2]. Investor Sentiment - Trading volume in European and American stock markets increased significantly, while the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks reached a historical low. The Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 saw a decrease in trading volume, while the S&P 500, European Stoxx 50, and Korea's Kospi 200 experienced an increase. Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved and is at a historically high level, while sentiment in the U.S. decreased but remains high. Volatility decreased in Hong Kong and Japanese stocks, while it increased in U.S. and European stocks. Overall valuations in developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [2]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks were revised upward, while U.S. tech earnings expectations continued to be revised upward. Specifically, the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 was adjusted from 2066 to 2068. The EPS forecast for the S&P 500 remained unchanged at 269, and the EPS forecast for the Eurozone STOXX 50 also remained unchanged at 337 [3]. Economic Expectations - Economic expectations in Europe and the U.S. improved last week. The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index rose, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and accelerated AI infrastructure investments by tech giants. The European Economic Surprise Index also increased, likely due to low core inflation and a rebound in industrial production. Conversely, the Economic Surprise Index in China declined, possibly due to U.S.-China trade negotiations and weaker-than-expected economic data for August [3]. Capital Flows - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the market is speculating on the future path of rate cuts. As of September 19, futures market implied rates indicate that the market expects approximately 1.8 rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Last week, U.S. dollar liquidity shifted towards a looser stance. In terms of global micro liquidity, funds primarily flowed into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea. Additionally, there was a net inflow of capital into Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect program [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the recent monetary policy adjustments, particularly regarding the 14-day reverse repurchase agreements (OMO), indicate a protective stance rather than a shift towards marginal easing of monetary policy [2][5]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Adjustments - On September 19, the central bank announced a change to the 14-day reverse repo bidding method to "multiple price bidding," but the central bank governor clarified on September 22 that this does not involve adjustments to short-term policies [2]. - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo aligns with previous strategies and does not signal a clear intention to lower interest rates, maintaining a consistent approach to monetary policy [3]. Market Impact - The actual pricing ability of the 14-day reverse repo in the bond market is limited, and it is likely to continue serving as a tool for addressing special periods such as holidays [4]. - Historical data shows that the central bank typically uses the 14-day reverse repo before major holidays, indicating its role in smoothing out liquidity around these times [4]. Future Outlook - Despite the central bank's current protective stance on interbank liquidity, it does not imply a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy [5]. - The likelihood of interest rate cuts remains low unless there are significant market fluctuations or rapid currency appreciation, suggesting that the bond market may not benefit from new policy measures [5].

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound in activity, with private equity increasing positions and retail investor participation rising, while southbound capital inflow is slowing down [3][4]. Market Pricing Status - Market sentiment has improved slightly, with average daily trading volume in the A-share market rising to 25 trillion yuan, and turnover rates for the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 increasing to the 95th and 93rd percentiles respectively [3]. - The proportion of stocks that are rising has decreased to 32.0%, and the median weekly return for A-share stocks has dropped to -1.66% [3]. - Industry trading concentration is on the rise, with 19 industries having turnover rates above the 90th percentile, particularly in the automotive sector [3]. A-share Capital Flow - Public funds saw new issuance scale increase to 23.58 billion yuan, while stock positions were reduced [4]. - Private equity confidence index slightly rebounded, with positions surpassing 78%, nearing the highest point of the year [4]. - Foreign capital inflow amounted to 920 million USD, with northbound trading accounting for 10.0% of total transactions [4]. - The IPO fundraising reached 200 million yuan, with a private placement scale of 800 million yuan and a lock-up release scale of 61.34 billion yuan [4]. - Retail investor activity showed marginal improvement [4]. A-share Industry Allocation - Foreign capital is flowing into the financial and technology sectors, while financing funds are increasing allocations to non-TMT sectors [5]. - The electronics sector saw a net inflow of 14.99 billion yuan, while non-bank financials had a net inflow of 6.6 billion yuan [5]. - ETF flows indicate significant passive capital movement, with non-bank financials and non-ferrous metals leading in net inflows [5]. Hong Kong and Global Capital Flow - Southbound capital inflow decreased to 36.85 billion yuan, representing the 89th percentile since 2022 [6]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.6%, with global markets mostly up, particularly in Indonesia and Brazil [6]. - Foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong market reached 1.73 billion USD, while developed markets saw a net outflow of 5.2 billion USD [6]. - Emerging markets experienced a net inflow of 7.71 billion USD, with China and the US leading in inflow amounts [6].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to drive significant growth in the demand for related testing equipment, with the global AI computing test equipment market projected to reach $2.3 billion by 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: AI Computing Test Equipment Market - The global AI computing test equipment market is anticipated to grow rapidly, reaching $2.3 billion by 2024 [2]. - The integrated circuit production process requires various tests, including WAT, CP, and FT tests, with the global integrated circuit testing equipment market projected to be $7.54 billion in 2024 and $9.77 billion by 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.58% [2]. - Teradyne, a leading global testing machine company, estimates that the market for AI computing testing equipment will continue to grow [2]. Group 2: HBM Product Testing Demand - The demand for testing HBM products is increasing due to strong demand from AI chip customers, with SK Hynix leading the HBM market [3]. - HBM products are evolving from 8-layer DRAM chips to 12-layer configurations, necessitating additional testing steps to ensure quality and yield [3]. Group 3: Server Testing Equipment Demand - The rapid growth of AI model parameters is driving the need for substantial computing power and memory resources, leading to the emergence of supernode technology [4]. - Complex server systems, such as NVIDIA's NVL72 solution, require extensive testing, including ICT, FCT, aging, SIT, performance, and compatibility tests, highlighting the growing importance of testing equipment suppliers [4].

2025国泰海通海外市场 9月23日-上海 · 浦东香格里拉酒店 主会场 开场致辞 9:00-9:10 陈忠义 - 国泰海通证券副总裁、研究与机构业务委员 会总裁、政策和产业研究院院长 9:10-9:20 开场致辞 郭信麟 - 智信财经董事长 张家栋 - 复旦大学美国研究中心教授、外交部专家组成员 闭门研讨与小范围交流 * 名额有限,报名采取审核制。报名请联系您的国泰海通对口销售或 海外科技秦和平团队 10:10-10:35 AI 重构硬件创新边际 李媛媛 - 出门问问联合创始人 AI 芯片与模型工程融合云化趋势 10:35-11:00 李玉晨 - 无问芯穹 AI 云业务总裁 圆桌环节:AI主线,港美股海外市场如何投? 11:00-11:30 周 晶 - 华宝基金首席投资官 王康宁 - 毕盛投资(新加坡)首席投资官 吴信坤 - 国泰海通海外策略首席分析师 秦和平 - 国泰海通海外科技首席分析师 Agent 与互联网:模型,MCP 与应用技术节奏 10:00-11:00 特邀嘉宾 中国台湾及内地 COWOS 先进封装技术及产能进展 10:00-11:00 特邀嘉宾 模型技术拐点:从 Scaling law 到后 ...

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