Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the prices of pulp and paper are experiencing a downward trend, with pulp prices expected to remain low and paper prices approaching a weak seasonal period [1][2][3][4] Group 2 - Cultural paper prices and costs are both declining, with a marginal improvement in supply and demand expected. As of May 28, the market average price for 70g high white double glue paper is 5204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84% month-on-month. Factors include weak orders from paper mills, general inventory pressure, and limited support from downstream demand [1] - Whiteboard prices initially fell before slightly rebounding, with an overall downward trend in supply and demand. As of May 28, the market average price for 250-400g flat white cardboard is 4075 yuan/ton, down 3.28% month-on-month. The market faced weak orders and a supply surplus, although a slight recovery was noted mid-month due to improved macro sentiment [2] - Boxboard prices and profitability continue to decline as the off-season approaches, with the average market price for corrugated paper at 3511 yuan/ton, down 0.90% month-on-month. Initial price drops were followed by a slight increase due to tariff adjustments, but overall demand remains weak [3] - Pulp prices are declining due to limited demand improvement. External prices for needle and hardwood pulp have been adjusted downwards, with domestic hardwood pulp prices also under pressure. Downstream raw paper companies are maintaining low inventory levels, limiting upward price momentum in the pulp market [4]

风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 估值蓄力，坚守主线——转债市场点评 报告日期：2025.06.17 报告作者： 顾一格 （分析师），登记编号： S0880522120006 报告导读： 当前转债估值较4月初略有下降，性价比有所提升。建议通过布局自主可 控、内需发力和红利三条主线降低关税影响，提前布局优质底仓替代标的。 5月12日中美日内瓦协议落地以来，权益市场并未大涨，而是维持窄幅波动。 我们认为一方面是因为关税 摩擦缓和预期已经在4月8日-5月12日的反弹中被市场充分定价，另一方面，市场担心2018年中美达成协议 后美方单方面撕毁协议的情况再次发生。事实上，自中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来，美方新增多项对华限制措 施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。在刚刚结 束的中美伦敦会谈中，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原 则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。紧张关系暂时缓和，但结构性矛盾仍未根本性解决。中美 之间的结 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2024, rare earth prices have gradually bottomed out, with domestic quota allocations slowing down, and overseas development expectations for rare earths fermenting, although actual progress may fall short of expectations. Demand from sectors such as electric vehicles, home appliances, and wind power remains stable, while humanoid robots present long-term upside potential. The supply-demand reversal is beginning to unfold, and with Trump's tariff policies exceeding market expectations, rare earths, as a strategic domestic commodity, are likely to experience a double boost in profitability and valuation [1][5][12]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The implementation of export controls on medium and heavy rare earths by China has led to a significant increase in overseas prices, creating a mismatch in supply and demand [3][4]. - As of mid-May 2025, the price of terbium oxide increased from $906/kg in early April to $1005/kg, marking an 11% rise, with the price gap between overseas and domestic markets widening significantly [4]. - Domestic rare earth quotas are expected to grow at a slower rate of 6% in 2024, down from over 20% in previous years, indicating a tightening supply environment [12][26]. Group 2: Policy and Strategic Implications - The U.S. rare earth producer MP Materials announced a halt in shipments to China, which is expected to lead to a temporary contraction in domestic supply and potentially drive up prices [7][8]. - China's export control measures cover a wide range of medium and heavy rare earth products, which may exacerbate the supply-demand mismatch and trigger downstream stockpiling [11][12]. - The introduction of stricter management regulations for rare earth mining and processing is likely to enhance the strategic positioning of the industry and may lead to the exit of smaller players, further tightening supply [15][16]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - With the recent issuance of export licenses, the rising prices abroad are expected to gradually transmit to the domestic market, benefiting rare earth magnet material companies through improved performance and valuation [5][12]. - The demand for rare earth materials is projected to maintain growth rates of 37% for electric vehicles and 19% for air conditioning in 2025, indicating a robust demand outlook [5][21]. - The rare earth sector is anticipated to experience a significant recovery, with core companies likely to benefit from the upward price trend and improved market conditions [24][28].

Core Viewpoint - ByteDance's recent launch of the Doubao model 1.6 represents a significant upgrade in its AI model family, enhancing both performance and cost-effectiveness, which is expected to directly benefit AI implementation across various industries [2][4]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The Doubao model family has been expanded with the release of Doubao model 1.6, Doubao Video Generation Model Seedance 1.0 Pro, and Doubao Real-time Voice Model, establishing itself as a leading model with full modality, full size, and high cost-performance [2][3]. - Doubao model 1.6 includes three models: 1. Doubao-seed-1.6, an all-in-one model supporting 256K context, deep thinking, multi-modal understanding, and graphical interface operations [3]. 2. Doubao-seed-1.6-thinking, a reinforced version focusing on deep thinking capabilities, with improvements in coding, mathematics, and logical reasoning [3]. 3. Doubao-seed-1.6-flash, a high-speed version with low latency and strong visual understanding capabilities [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - By May 2025, the daily token usage of Doubao model exceeded 16.4 trillion, marking a 137-fold increase since its initial release in May 2024 [2]. - Doubao model 1.6 has shown significant improvements in reasoning, mathematics, instruction adherence, and agent capabilities, supporting complex agent construction and enhancing AI productivity [2][3]. Group 3: Pricing Strategy - Doubao model 1.6 introduces a novel pricing model based on input length, with a uniform token price regardless of whether deep thinking mode is activated [4]. - For the most commonly used input range of 0-32K, the pricing is set at 0.8 yuan per million tokens for input and 8 yuan per million tokens for output, representing a 63% cost reduction compared to previous models [4]. - A promotional pricing tier has been established for inputs of 32K and outputs within 200 tokens, further lowering costs to 0.8 yuan per million tokens for input and 2 yuan per million tokens for output [4].

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan's tightening of export controls on certain high-tech products is accelerating the push for self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain, particularly in the area of ABF substrates [1][2]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - Taiwan's International Trade Administration has added entities such as SMIC and Huawei to a restricted export list, requiring permits for exports to these entities [1]. - A total of 601 entities, including those from Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Myanmar, and mainland China, have been added to the list due to concerns over military expansion activities [1]. Group 2: Domestic Industry Response - Domestic companies are actively working to support the supply chain, with companies like Xinsong Technology already supplying 20-layer substrates in bulk [2]. - Efforts are ongoing to validate and produce higher-layer substrates, indicating a potential breakthrough in domestic production capabilities [2]. Group 3: Technical Challenges - The ABF substrate segment remains one of the few areas in the Ascend supply chain that is not fully self-sufficient, with Taiwanese manufacturers holding a significant market share [1]. - The technical challenges in producing high-spec ABF substrates include maintaining layer alignment and thickness consistency, especially for larger and multi-layered products [1].

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Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimistic outlook for China's stock market, highlighting the emergence of new technology trends and business models, a decrease in opportunity costs for stock investments, and improved economic policies that favor investor returns. This creates a favorable environment for thematic investments, particularly in frontier technologies, advanced manufacturing, and structural improvements, with a focus on investment opportunities for the second half of 2025 [1][6][11]. Group 1: Frontier Technologies - Theme 1: AI and Embodied Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is expected to follow a path of "information infrastructure construction," "basic software deployment," "online application explosion," and "restructuring offline industries," with AI becoming a key catalyst for commercialization and increasing demand for computing power [2]. - The application of embodied intelligence is accelerating in fields such as research, education, and healthcare, with a focus on specific robotic products like quadrupedal and exoskeleton robots [2]. - Theme 2: Bioeconomy and Brain-Machine Interfaces - Biotechnology is rapidly advancing, enabling traditional industries to upgrade, with synthetic biology and information crossover technologies opening new spaces in the bioeconomy [3]. - The brain-machine interface industry is in the exploratory phase, with several tech companies attempting breakthroughs in hardware and applications [3]. - Theme 3: 6G Communication - 6G technology is set to revolutionize communication with significant improvements in speed and latency, with research expected to start in 2025 and commercial systems planned for 2030 [4]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - Theme 4: Low-altitude Economy and Commercial Space - The low-altitude economy is entering a "manned era," with market size expected to exceed one trillion yuan by 2026, driven by the establishment of non-controlled airspace and operational certifications [7]. - The commercial space sector is anticipated to see significant growth due to the increasing demand for satellite launches and the development of satellite constellations [7]. - Theme 5: Deep-sea Technology - The government has prioritized deep-sea technology, with policies accelerating the industrialization process and a projected marine production value exceeding ten trillion yuan by 2024 [8]. - Theme 6: Self-sufficiency - The semiconductor sector is becoming a focal point in the technology competition, with policies promoting mergers and acquisitions to deepen domestic replacements [9]. Group 3: Structural Improvements - Theme 7: Smart Driving - The penetration of advanced smart driving technologies is accelerating, with significant cost reductions expected in related hardware due to scale effects from companies like BYD [10]. - Theme 8: New Consumption Brands - The consumption recovery is showing a "K-shaped" divergence, with traditional consumption under pressure while new consumption is thriving, driven by digital economy and infrastructure changes [12]. - Theme 9: Price Cycle Products - Some cyclical industries are beginning to reduce capacity, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics leading to price recoveries in related sectors [13]. - Theme 10: Regional Economy - There is an increasing urgency to address regional development imbalances, with accelerated investment in western infrastructure and supportive policies for local industries [14].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to remain in a volatile trend next week, influenced by global events and technical indicators [1][2]. Market Overview - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 0.74, indicating higher liquidity compared to the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 0.99, reflecting growing caution among investors regarding short-term trends [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A Index were 0.94% and 1.57%, respectively, showing increased trading activity [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight fluctuations, with weekly changes of 0.05% and -0.02% respectively [2]. - China's May CPI was -0.1%, consistent with the previous value and above the Wind consensus expectation of -0.17% [2]. - The PPI for May was -3.3%, lower than the previous value of -2.7% and the Wind consensus expectation of -3.17% [2]. - New RMB loans in May amounted to 620 billion, below the Wind consensus expectation of 802.65 billion but higher than the previous value of 280 billion [2]. - M2 growth was 7.9%, below both the Wind consensus expectation of 8.08% and the previous value of 8% [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A Index broke above the SAR reversal point on June 4 [2]. - The market score based on the moving average strength index is currently at 155, which is at the 61.5% percentile since 2021 [2]. - The A-share market showed a pattern of rising and then declining, with global markets reacting negatively to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East [2]. Performance Summary - For the week of June 9-13, the SSE 50 Index fell by 0.46%, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.25%, and the CSI 500 Index dropped by 0.38%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.22% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.3 times, at the 53.5% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor and Industry Analysis - The small-cap factor's congestion level continues to rise, currently at 1.13, while low valuation and high profitability factors show negative congestion levels [3]. - Industries with relatively high congestion levels include machinery, comprehensive services, environmental protection, non-ferrous metals, and beauty care [3]. - The congestion level for the medical biotechnology and beauty care sectors has increased significantly [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares have been in a rebound trend since mid-April, with a significant drop on June 13 due to geopolitical factors, but the overall adjustment is expected to be limited [1] - As of June 13, 2025, the best-performing sectors include pharmaceuticals and banking, while food and beverage and real estate sectors show weaker performance [1] - The financing balance in the market has not significantly increased during this rebound, indicating that the implied risk in major A-share indices is not at a high level [1] Group 2: Investment Style and Trends - The differentiation between large-cap value and small-cap growth styles is at a central level compared to the past two years, with no clear mean reversion opportunity currently [1] - The high basis level of stock index futures is influenced by the seasonal increase in dividend distributions from listed companies during May and June, alongside increased hedging demand from cautious investors [1] Group 3: New Consumption Trends in Cosmetics - The new consumption era in the cosmetics industry is characterized by product innovation and emotional value consumption, moving away from the previous traffic-driven growth [3] - The emergence of new channels and media is accelerating product innovation and market penetration, with platforms like Douyin playing a crucial role in product testing and promotion [4] - Traditional industries such as personal care, health products, and cosmetics are experiencing significant product renewal opportunities, driven by structural changes in consumer demand and channel dynamics [5]

报告导读： 2025年6月，受中美贸易磋商会议提振风险偏好，美国通胀相对温和且原油 库存下降以及中东地缘冲突升级等因素影响，原油价格加速反弹。2025年6月13日，受 中东局势扰动影响，布伦特原油主力期货合约、WTI原油主力期货合约双双涨超8%。由 于贸易冲突缓和，OPEC+、EIA、IEA对全球原油需求的预测环比有所增长。短期来看， 若地缘局势升级恶化，仍有推升油价的可能性。 2025年6月油价加速反弹。 2025年6月，受中美贸易磋商会议提振风险偏好，美国通胀相对温和且原油库存 下降以及中东地缘冲突升级等因素影响，原油价格加速反弹。2025年6月13日，受中东局势扰动影响，布 伦特原油主力期货合约、WTI原油主力期货合约双双涨超8%，WTI原油最高触及74.35美元/桶，为2月3日 以来高位；布伦特原油价格最高触及75.28美元/桶，为4月2日以来高位。 OPEC+继续增产原油。 2025年5月-7月，欧佩克+连续三次增产，且增产幅度较大，每一个月均是41.1万 桶/天，连续三个月累计超过120万桶/天，为2020年最大增产。但由于夏季高峰期临近增产，地缘扰动等因 素影响，导致油价不降反升。 非OPEC+ ...