RWA是近期金融创新中的革命性突破。 RWA将房地产、国债、商品、私募信贷等真实资产通过数字化与代币化流程映射至区块链之上，提高资产透明度、增 强交易效率、拓宽融资渠道，为全球资本市场注入前所未有的流动性与可组合性。作为连接真实世界与虚拟世界的重要桥梁，RWA正深刻重塑全球资产配置 格局，开启金融科技新时代的基础设施革新。 报告导读： RWA 为全球投资者提升资产配置效率、拓展另类投资渠道提供了全新可能。 预计RWA 将在中国迎来快速发展，成为推动资产配置与财富管理发展的重要力量。 方奕(分析师)S0880520120005 王子翌(分析师)S0880523050004 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 《虚实互通：解析链上真实世界资产RWA》 报告日期：2025-08-01 报告作者： RWA为全球投资者提升资产配置效率、拓展另类投资渠道提供了全新可能。 从资产类别角度看，诸如房地产、林地、艺术品、私募信贷等另类资产，因其与 传统资产的低相关性，具备良好的风险分散效应。然而，由于这些资产通常存在流动性差、信息不透明、投资门槛高等问题，长期以来主要由机构或高净值人 群配置，普通投资者 ...

报告导读： 上海市经济信息化委印发《上海市进一步扩大人工智能应用的若干措施》，计 划三年内发放" 6 亿算力券 +3 亿模型券 +1 亿语料券"，国内 AI 应用产业发展进一步加 速。 投资建议： 7 月 28 日，上海市经济信息化委印发《上海市进一步扩大人工智能应用的若干措施》，计划在三年内发放 6 亿元算力券 +3 亿元模型券 +1 亿 元语料券， 这一政策将产生显著的链式反应， " 算力 - 模型 - 语料 " 全链条支持，加速大模型生态集聚，同时服务器、算力调度与 AI 应用等多环节有望 显著受益，国内 AI 应用产业发展进一步加速 ，我们维持计算机板块 " 增持 " 评级。 上海新政围绕算力、模型、语料三大核心要素，推出总额 10 亿元的专项补贴券。 7 月 28 日，上海市发布《进一步扩大人工智能应用的若干措施》， 6 亿 元算力券对租用智能算力的主体给予市级最高 30% 租金补贴，市区协同可实现最多 1 年、最高 100% 补贴，同时对自主算力设施部署项目提供最高 10% 建设支持，直接降低企业研发与应用大模型的硬件成本； 3 亿元模型券聚焦大模型垂类应用，对调用第三方大模型 API 或私有化部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of optimizing position strategies in quantitative frameworks for predicting bond futures, rather than solely focusing on the prediction accuracy of price movements [1][3]. Group 1: Position Strategy Optimization - The study tests various position strategies, including a full position strategy as a benchmark, a threshold-based full position strategy, and a gradual accumulation strategy that incorporates a fuzzy interval filtering mechanism [1][3]. - Continuous trading strategies convert binary probability signals into position adjustment signals, allowing for categorization based on risk preferences, such as risk-seeking, risk-averse, and risk-neutral types [1][3]. Group 2: Model and Market Conditions - The report references a multi-factor model for bond market timing, utilizing recent data to train models for predicting the next trading day, with specific market conditions defined for 2024 and 2025 [2]. - The combination of various position strategies is crucial, particularly in volatile markets, where appropriate strategy selection can significantly enhance overall model performance [3]. Group 3: Performance Insights - Binary full position strategies effectively capture returns during clear trends but come with higher volatility and transaction costs [3]. - Gradual accumulation strategies show lower trading frequency advantages, reducing transaction costs, but may have limited return capture in sideways markets [3]. - Single continuous strategies demonstrate strong performance in volatile markets, with specific strategies like Sigmoid and Atanh showing significant advantages in volatility control, especially for risk-averse investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI declined in July, influenced by seasonal factors and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies aimed at capacity management in key industries, which has led to an increase in raw material prices. Additionally, weak real estate demand has negatively impacted domestic demand [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The construction business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, while the services business activity index was 50.0%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The marginal decline in manufacturing PMI aligns with seasonal trends, with some regions experiencing supply and demand disruptions due to extreme weather conditions. There is a notable divergence in PMI performance between large and small enterprises [2]. - Production has entered a low season, with demand showing a greater-than-seasonal slowdown. Certain sectors, such as railway, shipping, aerospace, and computer communication, continue to see new orders in the expansion zone, likely due to ongoing equipment upgrade policies. Conversely, sectors like chemical raw materials and non-metallic mineral products remain below the critical point due to insufficient end-demand amid real estate pressures [2]. Services Sector - The service sector remains stable, supported by seasonal factors. The tourism-related industries have seen increased activity due to summer holiday effects, with transportation, postal, and entertainment sectors maintaining high business activity indices. However, real estate and residential services are in contraction zones, indicating weaker performance [3]. - The construction industry has experienced a greater-than-seasonal decline in activity, primarily due to weak real estate demand and a slowdown in fiscal spending on infrastructure projects. Future improvements in construction activity are anticipated, supported by major projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [3]. Policy and Investment Outlook - The central political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for sustained macro policy efforts and timely enhancements. The focus should be on three main lines: first, the "anti-involution" policies are expected to adjust supply-side dynamics in certain industries, potentially boosting price levels; second, 69 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for consumer upgrades will be allocated in July, with remaining funds to be disbursed in October, supporting consumption; third, urban renewal projects are likely to enhance investment, particularly in municipal infrastructure and the renovation of old urban areas [4].

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of the five-year plan reflects a flexible and diverse set of goals focusing on innovation, livelihood, and safety, with an emphasis on optimizing industries and transitioning to green production capabilities [1][5]. Group 1: Planning Framework - The five-year plan follows a fixed cycle that includes seven steps: preliminary research, investigation and compilation, suggestions and implementation, drafting, review and approval, mid-term evaluation, and summary evaluation [2]. - The structure of the five-year plan can be divided into three main parts: overall goals, sector-specific discussions, and implementation mechanisms [3][4]. Group 2: Key Features of Recent Five-Year Plans - The main objectives of the five-year plans have become more flexible, with GDP growth targets shifting from fixed values to range targets. The proportion of targets reflecting economic growth has decreased from 33% in the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" to 20% in the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan," while social comprehensive goals have increased from 67% to 80% [5]. - Industry policy focuses on dynamic adjustments between manufacturing and service sectors, with an emphasis on enhancing manufacturing competitiveness and the rapid development of service industries driven by consumer demand and supportive policies [6]. - Major engineering projects are increasingly concentrated in the areas of livelihood, ecology, and infrastructure, with a notable shift in regional focus towards western provinces such as Sichuan, Tibet, and Xinjiang [7].

报告导读： 潮玩谷子赛道快速发展，一级市场相关项目投融资高峰期已过，当前仍保持相 对稳定的项目数量，二级市场龙头加大力度布局相关业务。 投资建议： 潮玩谷子赛道仍在快速发展，尽管自高峰期以来一级市场投融资项目数量有回落，但近年来仍保持相对稳定，且二级市场玩家加大力度布局相关 业务，包括部分文具文创企业、IP方等。我们认为随着相关产业的快速扩容和竞争加剧，有优质IP矩阵、供应链把控能力强、具备出色运营及渠道建设力的龙 头企业更能脱颖而出。 潮玩谷子投资在21世纪10年代中期达到顶峰，如今保持相对稳定。 根据IT桔子信息，2015-2018年随泡泡玛特盲盒产品的推出与文娱行业的高速发展，每 年潮玩谷子一级市场投资事件数超过40起；2022年后数量有所回落并逐步趋稳，2022-2024年分别为19/9/11起2025年截至7月10日已录得11起。 衍生品周边最受关注，投资机构所投相比占比逐步提升。 在潮玩谷子赛道的投资布局中，被投企业可清晰划分为三大核心方向：IP内容方向、衍生品周边方 向和平台型方向，其中衍生品周边方向企业最受关注，2024年衍生品周边/IP内容方/平台型被投项目占比分别为60%/40%/0%。投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The smart glasses industry is expected to enter a rapid growth phase, with related companies poised to benefit from an upward economic cycle driven by a surge in new product launches at WAIC 2025 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - WAIC 2025 saw a significant increase in smart glasses brands and new product launches, contrasting with the limited exposure of products at WAIC 2024, where only XREAL and Rokid were prominent [2]. - The event highlighted the emergence of new brands such as Li Weike and Halliday, alongside major players like Alibaba, indicating a broadening market landscape [2][3]. - The market's heightened interest in smart glasses is attributed to advancements in large model functionalities, leading to innovative products like AI glasses represented by Rayban-Meta, focusing on audio, weight, and battery life for improved user experience [2]. Group 2: Product Innovations - Alibaba launched its first AI smart glasses, Quark AI glasses, integrating its ecosystem with advanced AI capabilities [3]. - XREAL introduced its flagship product, XREAL One Pro, evolving from traditional AR glasses to a versatile spatial screen adaptable to various scenarios [3]. - Rokid showcased two new products, Rokid Glasses and Rokid Cupcake, which excel in display, audio, and smart interaction, positioning them to lead the AR glasses market [3]. - New domestic brands like Halliday and Li Weike presented lightweight and user-friendly designs, with products emphasizing minimalism and extended battery life [3]. Group 3: Global Market Projections - According to Weishen Information, global smart glasses sales are projected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024, with RayBan Meta accounting for 1.42 million units, and expected to grow to 3.5 million units in 2025, representing a 230% year-on-year increase [4]. - The growth is primarily driven by the sustained sales of RayBan Meta and the introduction of multiple new AI smart glasses by major companies [4]. - The global market for smart glasses is anticipated to reach 60 million units by 2029, with a CAGR of 109% from 2025 to 2029, highlighting the significant share of the Chinese market [4].

Core Insights - The industry is facing intensified competition due to supply-demand mismatch, leading to adjustments by leading companies through product expansion and new channel development, which may result in a rebound if performance exceeds expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - From 2019 to 2022, the industry experienced high prosperity and was valued accordingly. However, since 2023, the industry has seen a decline in prosperity and performance, with pessimistic expectations leading to a decrease in valuations, currently around a PE of 20 times [1]. - The restaurant industry's revenue growth from 2019 to 2024 has significantly slowed to low single digits, putting pressure on the demand side for the frozen food sector, with listed companies showing noticeable deceleration or decline in performance [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent performance pressure in the sector is attributed to a combination of weak demand and increased supply, resulting from optimistic expansion in previous years. This has led to intensified competition, with mainstream manufacturers prioritizing market share over profit, causing increased promotional discounts and higher expenditure [2]. - The capital expenditure in the sector is expected to decline significantly in 2024, and the total number of employees is also beginning to slow down, indicating that the industry is recognizing the supply-demand mismatch and is starting to make necessary adjustments [2]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Some companies within the sector are actively seeking solutions to break the current stagnation by expanding product categories, launching new products, and exploring emerging channels to find new growth opportunities [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the launch of the Guotai Haitong 818 Wealth Management Festival, featuring discussions on the Chinese economic landscape and capital market prospects, emphasizing a "transformation bull" market trend [1][10]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Guotai Haitong 818 Wealth Management Festival officially commenced on August 1, with former Vice Chairman of the National Social Security Fund Council, Wang Zhongmin, as a special guest [1][10]. - The event includes a special program titled "Chief is Here," where experts analyze economic hotspots and market trends [1][10]. Group 2: Key Participants - Notable guests include Wang Zhongmin, who has extensive experience in economic policy and investment, and various chief analysts from Guotai Haitong [8][10]. - The program is hosted by Chen Xinyi, a prominent figure in the Guotai Haitong investment community [8]. Group 3: Discussion Topics - The first half of the program focuses on macroeconomic issues, including the evolution of China-U.S. relations and the impact of "anti-involution" compared to previous supply-side structural reforms [8]. - The second half addresses capital market investments, discussing the trend of increasing risk asset allocation and the implications of stablecoins and tokens on the global financial system [8]. Group 4: Future Programs - The festival will feature additional special programs, including one on August 18 led by Research Institute Director Lu Ying, focusing on new productivity and investment opportunities [10].

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