展望下半年，将依然行业无金融风险、土地市场延续产品代际差导致的结构好、十五五规划下房企谋求新 商业模式的局面。 我们论述过行业支出减少带来的金融风险下降，预计下半年仍然会呈现出和上半年类似 的局面。同时，土地市场仍将持续超预期，尽管土地出让金仍然负增长，但预计幅度会好于预期，核心就 在于产品代际差带来的新房市场持续处于结构性活跃状态，带动房企拿地和政府推地的积极性维持较高水 平。需要重点关注的是十五五规划带来的房企新思考，尤其是头部房企，在新商业模式驱动下，找到超越 行业发展的新思路。 结构性市场，包袱小的企业仍然将取得更明显的优势。 风险提示： 不扩信用背景下，价格企稳的压力仍在。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称：四平八稳，轻装上阵——地产5月观察及数据点评 报告日期：2025.06.19 报告作者： 涂力磊 （分析师)，登记编号： S0880525040101 谢皓宇 （分析师)，登记编号： S0880518010002 陈昭颖 （研究助理)，登记编号： S0880125042226 报告导读： 5月楼市运营延续4月，整体呈现四平八稳状态，结合十五五规划，接下来的 亮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, indicating a pause in monetary policy, while inflation expectations have intensified, leading to concerns about stagflation [2][3] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time since January 2025, aligning with market expectations [2] - Economic forecasts were revised downward for 2025 and 2026, with an increase in unemployment rate predictions and a rise in price index forecasts, further exacerbating stagflation concerns [2] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet fully materialized, suggesting significant uncertainty regarding future inflation [2] - Tariff measures require time to affect consumer prices, and ongoing geopolitical issues in the Middle East may lead to rising energy prices, contributing to inflationary pressures [2][3] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's stance remains hawkish, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2025 unchanged from March, but the forecast for 2026 was reduced from two cuts to one [2] - The number of Fed officials predicting no rate cuts in 2025 increased from four to seven, indicating a more hawkish outlook overall [2] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the June FOMC meeting, the U.S. stock and bond markets exhibited characteristics of stagflation trading, with expectations of further development in this trend in the short term [4] - Anticipation of new economic policies, such as tax cuts and debt ceiling increases, could lead to a recovery trading phase in the latter half of the year [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to rise, potentially reaching a phase of 5% if inflation expectations increase due to tariffs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report captures global multi-asset investment opportunities based on market conditions and designs corresponding investment strategies, including equity and bond target allocation, low-volatility fixed income combinations, and global asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The equity-bond target allocation strategy employs a risk budgeting design to construct a portfolio that achieves the desired allocation level, offering a better long-term risk-return profile compared to fixed allocation strategies [2]. - The low-volatility "fixed income+" strategy combines domestic stocks, bonds, and gold with a target allocation of stocks:gold:bonds = 1:1:4, achieving an annualized return of 6.86% and a volatility of 3.50% over the backtest period from January 1, 2015, to May 30, 2025 [2]. - The global asset allocation strategy I, which includes A-shares, bonds, gold, and US stocks, achieved an annualized return of 11.23% and a volatility of 5.88% over the backtest period from January 2, 2014, to May 30, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Recommendations - For A-shares, the report suggests maintaining a barbell strategy, focusing on high-quality assets in large caps and trading-type assets in small caps, as risks are gradually released after recent pullbacks [4]. - In the domestic bond market, the report recommends focusing on short-term products while considering medium to long-term interest rate bonds or extending the duration of credit bonds due to ongoing economic pressures [4]. - The report indicates that US stocks may continue to experience wide fluctuations due to uncertainties in economic policies and marginal declines in economic conditions [4]. - Japanese stocks may present short-term investment opportunities due to a positive wage-price spiral and continued foreign capital inflows [4]. - Indian stocks are expected to remain in a volatile pattern due to marginal declines in economic conditions and outflows of foreign capital [4]. - Gold prices are anticipated to experience wide fluctuations due to easing tariff policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts, although the long-term upward trend remains clear [4].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Opinions on Supporting the Acceleration of Building Shanghai International Financial Center" and the "Action Plan for the Construction of Shanghai International Financial Center" optimizes market infrastructure, reduces transaction costs, and enhances market liquidity and resilience, providing substantial support to the securities and futures sectors, benefiting multiple non-bank segments [1]. Summary by Sections Policy Framework - On June 18, the Central Financial Committee issued the "Opinions on Supporting the Acceleration of Building Shanghai International Financial Center," followed by the State Financial Supervision Administration and Shanghai Municipal Government's "Action Plan." The "Opinions" outline a comprehensive blueprint for the next 5 to 10 years to enhance Shanghai's financial center capabilities, while the "Action Plan" details specific support measures from a local implementation perspective [2]. - The "Opinions" propose six core measures: deepening financial market construction, enhancing financial institution capabilities, improving financial infrastructure, expanding high-level financial openness, improving service quality for the real economy, and effectively maintaining financial security under open conditions. The "Action Plan" complements this by focusing on financial institution aggregation, implementing service measures for the real economy, expanding institutional openness, enhancing regulatory standards, and improving policy support [2]. Market Impact - The joint release of the "Opinions" and "Action Plan" signals that building Shanghai as an international financial center has become a national strategic priority. This alignment provides clear direction for financial institutions and market participants, significantly boosting market expectations. Various measures will gradually relax market access, increase openness, and foster innovation, which will attract capital inflows and enhance trading activity [3]. - Over the long term, the construction over the next 5 to 10 years is expected to elevate Shanghai's international capital market influence and risk pricing capabilities [3]. Sector Benefits - The policy benefits multiple non-bank sectors by deepening financial market construction and expanding high-level financial openness, directly creating new business opportunities for non-bank institutions. Securities firms will benefit from accelerated listings of "hard tech" companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, increased demand for mergers and acquisitions, and cross-border financing services driven by offshore finance [4]. - Insurance institutions will focus on building Shanghai as an international reinsurance center and pilot projects for pension finance, enhancing the asset management capabilities and risk pricing advantages of leading insurance companies [4]. - Futures companies will benefit from the policy support for building a world-class trading platform at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with the listing of internationalized products such as gold and shipping driving trading volume and commission growth [4].

Macroeconomic Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [1] - Economic forecasts indicate heightened stagflation concerns, with the Fed lowering growth predictions for 2025 and 2026, raising unemployment rate forecasts, and increasing price index predictions [1] - Tariff impacts on inflation have yet to fully materialize, with expectations of future inflation uncertainty due to tariffs and geopolitical issues, particularly in the Middle East [1][2] - The Fed's stance remains hawkish, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2025 unchanged, but a reduction in anticipated cuts for 2026 from two to one [1] Nuclear Fusion Industry - Shanghai Superconductor's IPO application has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, indicating acceleration in the nuclear fusion industry's commercialization [4] - The company holds over 80% market share in the domestic second-generation high-temperature superconducting wire market, with a global market size projected to exceed 10.5 billion by 2030 [5] - Revenue projections for Shanghai Superconductor show significant growth, with expected revenues of 2.40 billion in 2024, a 187.4% increase year-over-year, and a turnaround to profitability [6] - The nuclear fusion sector is recognized for its potential as an ideal energy source, with the Chinese government emphasizing its importance in future energy strategies [7]

报告导读： 近期国内医药行业宏观利好政策密集出台，对创新药企、仿创转型药企发展 形成政策利好。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 中央多部门发文创新药利好政策密集出台 报告日期：2025.06.18 报告作者： 余文心 （分析师），登记编号： S0880525040111 陈铭（研究助理） ，登记编号： S0880125042235 6月16日，为落实《国务院办公厅关于全面深化药品医疗器械监管改革促进医药产业高质量发展的意见》 有关要求， 支持创新药研发，国家药监局在开展优化创新药临床试验审评审批试点工作经验基础上，组织 起草了《关于优化创新药临床试验审评审批有关事项的公告（征求意见稿）》向社会公开征求意见，主要 内容"为进一步支持以临床价值为导向的创新药研发，提高临床研发质效，对符合要求的创新药临床试验 申请在30个工作日内完成审评审批。" 我们认为，当前中央多部门加大对创新药的支持力度，优化集采措施，有望对创新药行业景气度构成利 好。 风险提示： 医保控费加剧风险，政策推进不达预期风险，估值波动风险，市场波动风险。 6月9日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅发布《关于进一 ...

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Group 1: Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in net buying of 7-10 year long-term bonds and bonds over 10 years, with weekly net buying intensity reaching the second highest and highest levels of the year respectively [1] - The overall funding market has warmed up, with both net inflow and outflow amounts rising, and an increase in the leverage ratio in the interbank bond market [2] - The secondary market shows improved activity, particularly in ultra-long bonds, with a rise in turnover rates for 30-year government bonds and an increase in average duration for medium to long-term pure bond funds [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In the primary market, there was a noticeable "marginal" sentiment, with an increase in the issuance of government bonds and a rise in the bid-to-cover ratio for government bonds, while the ratio for policy financial bonds decreased [2] - Major institutional behaviors indicate that funds are aggressively allocating to long-term and ultra-long-term bonds, while rural commercial banks are selling off across all maturities, particularly in the 7-10 year and over 10-year segments [3] - The scale of wealth management products in June did not show the typical seasonal decline, with a slight overall decrease in the week of June 15, while fund sizes increased significantly compared to previous months [4]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum focuses on "Financial Openness and Cooperation in the Global Economic Changes and High-Quality Development," emphasizing global financial governance, extensive financial openness, capital market integration with technology and industry, and a comprehensive foreign exchange innovation policy [1][2]. Financial System - The international monetary system is likely to evolve towards a scenario where a few sovereign currencies coexist, compete, and balance each other. The global cross-border payment system is developing towards greater efficiency, security, inclusiveness, and diversity. There is a need for international financial organizations to enhance the representation and voice of emerging markets and developing countries. Additionally, structural monetary policy tool innovations are being highlighted, including pilot programs for blockchain letters of credit refinancing, cross-border trade refinancing, and expansion of carbon reduction support tools [2][3]. Financial Openness - China is poised for significant financial openness, focusing on several areas: - Expansion and upgrading of consumer demand, creating vast financial service opportunities - Broad prospects in technology finance, promoting pilot programs for equity investments in financial asset investment companies and loans for technology enterprise mergers - Strong momentum in green finance, with foreign institutions introducing ESG rating systems and climate risk management tools - Opportunities in pension finance, with plans to expand pension wealth management, savings, exclusive insurance, and commercial pension pilot programs - A golden period for wealth management, supporting foreign institutions in investment, asset allocation, and insurance planning [2][3]. Capital Market - The capital market aims to enhance the integration of technology innovation and industrial creation through the introduction of the "1+6" policy measures, which include: - Establishing a growth layer for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board - Restarting the fifth set of listing standards for unprofitable companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board - Introducing a pre-review mechanism for IPOs of high-quality technology companies - Expanding the applicability of the fifth set of standards and strengthening the linkage between stocks and bonds to support technological innovation [3]. Foreign Exchange Management - A comprehensive innovation policy for foreign exchange management is being established, focusing on creating a system that is more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent. This includes implementing ten facilitation policies in free trade pilot zones, such as optimizing new international trade settlement methods and expanding the Qualified Foreign Limited Partner (QFLP) pilot [3].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum emphasizes the acceleration of RMB internationalization and capital opening, with a focus on the integration of technology and industrial innovation as a main theme [1][2]. Summary by Sections RMB Internationalization and Financial Opening - The forum announced eight financial opening measures aimed at enhancing the infrastructure of the interbank market, promoting digital RMB internationalization, and innovating offshore financial services [2]. - Key issues such as the lag in financial system reform, insufficient financial product innovation, and lack of foreign exchange risk management tools have been identified [2]. - The central bank aims to reduce reliance on the US dollar and promote the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) as a leading international currency [2]. - The measures are expected to attract more international capital into the Chinese market, enhancing the certainty of RMB assets [2]. Technology and Industry Innovation - The "1+6" policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board was introduced, which includes the establishment of a growth tier and the reintroduction of listing standards for unprofitable companies [3]. - The policy aims to support various cutting-edge technology sectors, including artificial intelligence and commercial aerospace, enhancing the financing ecosystem for innovative companies [3]. - Since the implementation of the "8 Articles of Sci-Tech Innovation Board," there have been 106 new merger and acquisition transactions, totaling over 140 billion [3]. - A total of 479 companies have released action plans for 2025, with 433 companies launching equity incentive plans, indicating a robust investment and financing environment [3]. Financial Opening Initiatives in Shanghai - The forum highlighted initiatives to support offshore trade in Shanghai and innovate structural monetary policy tools [4]. - These measures are designed to build a financial system that aligns with Shanghai's status as an international financial center [4]. - The comprehensive policies are expected to enhance Shanghai's ability to attract international capital and improve its global asset pricing capabilities [4]. Market Outlook - The acceleration of institutional reforms and the opening of capital markets are seen as key drivers for the revaluation of Chinese assets [4]. - The certainty of the Chinese market is viewed as a foundation for stability and gradual growth in the stock market, with emerging technology as the main investment theme [4].