事件。 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定今年 10 月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央委员 会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会 发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。中共中央总书记习近 平主持会议。 会议指出 ，要持续防范化解重点领域风险。落实好 中央城市工作 会议精神，高质量开展城 市更新。 投 资建议：维持"增持"评级。 今年四季度面临高基数期，我们判断三季度政策存在政策加力预期，缓释 基本面压力，力争实现止跌回稳目标。若四季度错峰销售不能平稳，"以销定产"逻辑下 2025 年上半年蓝 筹房企开发项目存在销售压力，岁末现金流转进而把压力传导至 2026 年投资端， 2025 年 12 月中央经 济工作会议和 2026 年两会或将成地产重要时点。 2024 年房地产竣工失速下滑，销售与竣工之间差值为 2.36 亿平，我们看好下半年的竣工修复。 落实会议精神，地产政策转型。 7 月政治局会议指出，"落实好中央城市工作会议精神"。中央城市工作会 议指出，"我国城镇化正从快速增长期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of adhering to the guidelines set forth by the Securities and Futures Investor Suitability Management Measures, particularly for clients of Guotai Junan Securities [2] - It highlights that the content is exclusively for signed clients of Guotai Junan Securities research services, ensuring quality and risk control [2] - The article expresses gratitude for the understanding and cooperation of readers who may not be signed clients, indicating a focus on maintaining service quality [2] Group 2 - The document includes a legal disclaimer, reinforcing the need for compliance with regulations regarding the distribution of research content [3]

报告导读： 回购对我国资本市场和企业发展更具长远意义，推动资本市场从转向"分红与 回购并重"更好适配我国经济转型升级和资本市场高质量发展的未来需求。 我国上市公司分红金额、分红比例，股息率、股利支付率处于较高水平。 全市场来看， 2017-2024 年 A 股现金分红公司比例均在 65% 以上，与日本尚有一定差距（约 80% ），但远高于美国（ 40%~50% ）。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 我国整个市场回购公司占比与美国和日本相近 ， 与国际相比，我国回购金额占市值比重较低，且大市值 企业回购公司数和回购金额偏少 。 2017-2024 年，我国全市场回购金额占市值比例不足 5% ， 2024 年政策驱动下比例也仅为 0.18% 。而美国自 2022 年回购金额占 ...

Group 1 - DJI is entering the vacuum cleaner market with the launch of its first robot vacuum product, branded as "ROMO," expected on August 6. The product will have two types of transparent and white shells, and three models: S standard version, A advanced version, and P flagship version. As of July 29, over 27,000 units have been pre-ordered on JD.com [1] - DJI's overseas revenue accounted for 80% of its total revenue of 50 billion yuan in 2023. The company has established a multi-channel sales model, including partnerships with major retailers like Best Buy and MediaMarkt, and has showcased its drones in over 500 Apple retail stores globally. This entry into the vacuum cleaner market is expected to enhance global exposure and recognition of the product category [2] - Related OEM companies are likely to benefit from DJI's entry into the vacuum cleaner market [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US economy shows resilience, supported by a decline in imports, strong consumer spending, and a return of manufacturing investments, leading to a narrowing of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Group 2 - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6% and significantly higher than the previous value of -0.5% [1] - Key supports for the GDP growth included a decrease in imports, resilient consumer spending, and private non-residential investment, while private inventory changes, residential investment, and goods and services exports were the main drags [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed internal divisions, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, indicating increasing disagreement within the committee [2] - The Fed expressed greater uncertainty regarding economic and inflation outlooks, with tariffs beginning to impact consumer prices, suggesting that inflation data will be influenced by these tariffs [2] - The Fed's stance remains hawkish, with a commitment to data-driven decisions, leading to a further reduction in market expectations for rate cuts throughout the year [2][3] - The expectation for interest rate cuts has narrowed, with only one potential cut anticipated in October, and the risk of no cuts for the entire year has increased [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to oscillate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of the year, reflecting a higher interest rate environment [3] - The US stock market is expected to experience some volatility but maintain an overall upward trend, particularly in sectors supported by capital expenditures and performance, such as AI and semiconductors [3]

【固收】大势未改，微澜有别——2025年REITs二季度季报点评 整体来看，二季度REIT经营表现基本延续预期趋势。 保障房、消费、市政环保板块方面，绝大多数项目经营表现维持稳健，部分消费项目披露租金边际下降 可能与商场营业额季节性回落下租金抽成减少有关；仓储板块整体出租率边际上升，但租金仍承压；产业园基本延续前期经营走势，工业厂房类项目出租率和 租金相对稳定，研发办公类项目多数面临"以价换量"和"量价齐跌"的情况；高速与能源板块内部分化，前者波动主要源于网路改扩建、假期与天气，后者波 动主要源于区域风光水资源变化与电价波动。 与一季度报披露后的行情类似，REIT二季度报披露后整体行情走低，但从板块结构上来看区别较大。 一季度报披露后REIT行情整体回调，板块间分化大，主 要由产业园板块领跌，经营稳健板块跌幅较小，消费板块不降反升；二季度报披露后REIT行情虽也整体回调，但板块间分化相对较小，且主要由经营更稳健 的保障房、市政板块领跌，产业园板块跌幅较小。 每周 一景：新疆 喀拉峻 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 本轮REIT行情回调正值投资者风险偏好转换，大类资产行情轮动期，基本面定价权重较小。 REIT本质作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the launch of Alibaba's "Quark AI Glasses," which deeply integrates with Alibaba and Alipay ecosystems, and discusses the supportive policies from Shanghai for AI glasses innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - Alibaba's self-developed "Quark AI Glasses" was officially unveiled during the WAIC 2025, with an expected release within the year. The glasses will have both display and non-display versions, utilizing dual Micro-LED and diffraction waveguide technology [2]. - The Quark glasses will feature advanced AI interaction capabilities, including AR navigation, payment options through Alipay, price comparison via Taobao, and travel reminders through Fliggy, marking a new paradigm in AI+AR interaction [2]. Group 2: Market Growth and Trends - Major tech companies like Xiaomi and Alibaba are set to enter the AI smart glasses market by 2025, with a significant increase in global AI glasses shipments anticipated. Meta's collaboration with Ray-Ban has already seen over 2 million units sold since its launch in September 2023 [3]. - According to Wellsenn XR, global AI glasses sales are projected to reach 2.34 million units in 2024 and 5.5 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 135% [3]. Group 3: Policy Support - The "Next Generation Display Industry High-Quality Development Action Plan" issued by Shanghai emphasizes the development of AI+AR and AI+MR glasses, focusing on lightweight, low power consumption, high resolution, and wide field of view technologies [3]. - The plan encourages innovation in key components such as display devices, waveguide lenses, and core chips, aiming to enhance product performance and accelerate the development of portable smart glasses [3].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry has emerged from the "cash flow pressure prisoner’s dilemma," with the second quarter of 2025 potentially marking the bottom of the mid-term industry fundamentals [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal industry has transitioned from a state of "cash flow pressure prisoner’s dilemma," with significant improvements in supply and demand fundamentals, indicating that the sector may have reached the bottom of the current cycle, maintaining an "overweight" rating [2]. - The supply-side reform has led to central state-owned enterprises dominating the industry, accounting for approximately 85% of the top 50 market share [3]. - From 2021 to 2024, the industry is expected to see substantial profit improvements and a rapid decline in debt ratios, alleviating repayment pressures [3]. - The National Energy Administration has indicated a shift away from "involution" in the coal industry, with a recovery in total electricity demand and a projected increase in coal demand by over 1% starting in May 2025 [4]. Price and Production Dynamics - The price of coal at ports fell below 650 RMB/ton in April 2025, leading to a significant reduction in production, aligning with economic principles of self-induced production cuts due to economic conditions [3]. - The combination of government regulatory measures and a decrease in imported coal is expected to stabilize total supply while allowing for a gradual decline [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuity of policies while balancing short-term growth and long-term reforms, particularly in the context of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" and the current economic situation [3][5][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30, 2025, assessed the economic situation more positively compared to the April meeting, noting a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, which exceeded annual targets [7][9]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility, with expectations for a potential "timely increase" in policy support in the latter half of the year [9][10]. Policy Deployment - Fiscal and monetary policies are shifting from "utilizing effectively" to "implementing in detail," focusing on improving the efficiency of fund usage and leveraging structural monetary policy tools [10][11]. - The concept of "anti-involution" has evolved, moving away from merely addressing low prices to a broader focus on quality and regulatory compliance within a unified national market [10][11]. - There is an increased emphasis on stabilizing the capital market, with a call to consolidate the positive momentum observed since April [11]. - Risk prevention and resolution in key areas are entering a new phase, particularly in real estate and local government debt management [11]. Future Considerations - The article suggests that while there is less urgency for new stimulus policies due to improved economic data and reduced external tensions, the government retains the option to implement additional measures if necessary [5][11]. - Close attention should be paid to the definitive industrial clues outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" as it develops [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The report demonstrates the effectiveness of deep learning models, specifically GRU and TCN, in stock selection, with GRU showing slightly better performance than TCN+GRU and TCN. The 10-day return prediction model outperforms the 5-day model. The deep learning factors are highly correlated with low volatility and low liquidity factors, indicating potential investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Model Performance - The GRU model is confirmed to be effective, with advantages in prediction accuracy and training speed, making it widely used in the industry [1]. - The TCN model, based on CNN architecture, effectively captures long-term dependencies in time series data through causal convolution and residual connections [1]. - The annualized excess returns since 2017 for various indices are as follows: - CSI 300: 11.8% - CSI 500: 13.6% - CSI 1000: 21.7% - CSI 2000: 27.1% The current year's excess returns are -0.4%, 2.7%, 9.9%, and 9.3% respectively [1][3]. Group 2: Single Factor Stock Selection - The single-factor stock selection shows better performance in small and mid-cap stock pools (CSI 1000, CSI 2000), with minimal impact from market capitalization and industry neutrality [2]. - The original factor values in CSI 300 outperform the market capitalization and industry-neutralized factor values, indicating that deep learning factors capture style and industry rotation patterns [2]. Group 3: Composite Factor Stock Selection - Composite factors, when equally weighted, outperform single factors, and the report outlines the construction of index-enhanced strategies with specific constraints on stock turnover and market exposure [3]. - The maximum drawdown for the CSI 300 index-enhanced strategy since January 2017 is -6.0%, with a current year excess return of -0.4% [3]. - Allowing for slight market and industry exposure results in annualized excess returns of 8.8% for CSI 300 and 14.6% for CSI 500, with current year excess returns of -1.7% and 5.2% respectively [3].