每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【批发零售 】看 好金价上行提振，品类分化、渠道为基 投资建议： 金价上行预期提振计件黄金与投资金终端动销，3月后进入Q2Q3同期基数回落，黄金珠宝行业有望迎来金价上行+品类分化的结构型行情。黄金 珠宝板块具备低估值与强内需支撑，金价上行有望带来业绩弹性，看好2024年渠道拓店逆势稳步净增，且终端计件黄金与投资金销售占比较高的黄金珠宝品 牌。 渠道为基：渠道网点支撑业绩底盘，同店触底回暖有望提振估值 。对于加盟模式而言，新增的渠道拓店数量与存量门店的终端动销是订货会批发出货量的支 撑，加盟模式下的渠道拓店发力弹性更大、且新店有初期门店铺货的集中批发出货贡献，渠道网点扩张为业绩业绩的核心驱动；而直营模式下，门店终端销售 与品牌总部收入确认同步，更关注同店的增长弹性。我们预计，2024年渠道拓店逆势稳步净增，且终端计件黄金与投资金销售占比较高的黄金珠宝品牌， 2025年有望呈现更优的业绩增速表现。黄金珠宝板块具备低估值与强内需支撑，Q2Q3同期基数回落，同店触底回暖估值向上弹性可期。 风险提示： 金价波动影响消费，门店扩张不及预期，消费力疲软等。 【 海外策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that leading brands in the home appliance sector are operating steadily, with short-term tariff disturbances expected to have diminishing effects, and performance exceeding expectations mainly in small appliances and cleaning devices [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - In Q2 2025, the home appliance sector's revenue and profit grew by 5.6% and 3.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a slight deceleration compared to Q1 [2]. - The white goods segment saw revenue and profit growth rates of 5.8% and 6.0%, with leading brands outperforming second and third-tier brands, indicating an increase in industry concentration [2]. - The cleaning appliance segment experienced significant revenue growth of 31.5%, while OEMs faced a profit decline of 23.8% due to tariff impacts [2]. - The black goods segment reported revenue growth of 1.4% but a profit decline of 16.5%, with brand companies experiencing slower volume growth but continuing to raise average prices [2]. - The kitchen appliance sector faced challenges, with revenue and profit growth rates of -5.5% and +1.1%, respectively, particularly for integrated stoves, which saw declines of 39.6% and 16.8% [2]. Group 2: International Expansion and New Business - The overseas revenue share of the home appliance sector reached 39.5% in H1 2025, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a trend towards international expansion [3]. - Companies are actively exploring new business areas, with Bull pushing into data centers and solar lighting, and Yitian Smart focusing on liquid cooling and computing power [3]. - In the core coverage of 40 companies, six exceeded revenue expectations, while four surpassed profit expectations, particularly in small appliances and cleaning devices [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: 1) core drivers of international expansion and smart home key targets; 2) stable performance with upward elasticity; 3) leading companies with robust operations and high dividends; 4) home appliance companies diversifying into new growth areas [4].

行业需求高度确定，改革创新加速推进， 有望延续高景气度。 近年来，美国及其盟友国防战略重心逐步向印太转向，中国周边紧张局势可能逐步加剧，和平 需要保卫，加大国防投入是必选项，军工行业特别是装备体系建设有望长期趋势向好。 2027 年要确保实现建军百年奋斗目标，十四五期间有望加速补短板。 构建现代化武器装备体系，要求加大淘汰老旧装备力度，逐步形成以高新技术装备为骨干的武器装备体系。考虑到中美航空装备目前仍有一定差距，未来装备 费有望向航空航天等领域倾斜。军工行业有望保持高景气，相关上市公司将持续受益。 风险提示：相关公司军品业务需求情况不及预期的风险；相关公司民品业务业绩不达预期的风险。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 阅兵隆重举行，新装备亮相彰显行业高景气度——纪念抗战胜利80周年阅兵事件点评；报告 日期：2025.09.03 报告作者： 彭磊（分析师），登记编号：S0880518100003 杨天昊（分析师），登记编号：S0880523080010 重要提醒 报告导读： 2025 年 9 月 3 日，纪念抗战胜利 80 周年大会在北京天安门广场隆重举 行。陆海空天各方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance recovery is slowing down, with mid-cap growth stocks showing outstanding growth. The expansion of the AI trend and manufacturing overseas is expected to drive continued capacity cycle expansion, maintaining a differentiated structure of cyclical growth [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Performance - In H1 2025, the net profit of the entire A-share non-financial sector increased by 1.59% year-on-year, with revenue growth at 0.66%, indicating strong resilience despite rising operating costs leading to a narrowing of gross profit growth [2]. - The performance growth is differentiated across sectors, with the main board, ChiNext, and North Exchange showing a slowdown, while the growth of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board rebounded significantly [2]. - Mid-cap stocks outperformed in growth, while large-cap stocks showed resilience, and small-cap stocks experienced a noticeable decline [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology growth sector, including optical electronics, semiconductors, and communication equipment, continued to show high prosperity driven by overseas AI investments and domestic substitution demand [3]. - The cyclical sector faced pressure, but precious metals and minor metals still grew rapidly due to rising expectations of overseas interest rate cuts and tight supply [3]. - Essential consumption faced general pressure, but sectors like breeding, feed, and animal health showed significant growth due to capacity reduction and the expansion of the pet economy [3]. Group 3: Capacity Operation - In Q2 2025, traditional cyclical resources and equipment manufacturing industries are experiencing strong capacity decommissioning intentions, while emerging industries and new materials are showing expansion characteristics [4]. - The capacity utilization rate in emerging technology hardware and some consumer industries remains high, with marginal improvements observed [4]. - The capacity cycle is entering an expansion phase, particularly in emerging technology industries, new consumption, and certain cyclical materials [4].

国泰海通证券 GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES 2025上海先导产业大会 暨第14届医药CEO论坛 +第5届人工智能大会 ch 2025年9月4日-5日 上海市-浦东文华东方酒店 ice: and are to the contraction of the comment of the may be the may be be the been and the be CEO、核心高管、业内大咖等出席， 形式包括圆桌讨论、专题演讲等 9月4日 上午 医药主会场 | 09:00-09:10 开场致辞 | | --- | | 陈忠义 - 国泰海通证券副总裁、研究与机构业务委员会总 | | 裁、政策和产业研究院院长 | | 09:10-10:10 圆桌讨论：从本土创新到全球引领：中国药企的出海时代 | | 主持人: 余文心-国泰海通研究所副所长、科技组长、生物 | | 医药首席分析师 | | 嘉宾: | | 朱义-百利天恒董事长 | | 叶小平-泰格医药董事长 | | 张连山-恒瑞医药执行副总裁 | | --- | | 盛泽林-泽璟制药董事长 | | 邹建军-君实生物总经理 | | 10:10-11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming 2025 Europe Country Forum organized by Guotai Junan Securities, focusing on the investment opportunities and challenges for Chinese enterprises in Europe, as well as the evolving geopolitical landscape and its implications for economic relations between China and Europe [2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The forum will take place on September 12, 2025, in Shanghai, coinciding with the 50th anniversary of China-Europe diplomatic relations [2]. - The event aims to address how China and Europe can collaborate during a time of significant global changes and complex international relations [2]. Group 2: Key Topics and Speakers - The forum will feature various sessions, including discussions on the impact of U.S. tariff policies and fiscal and monetary policies by Yang Shuiqing from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences [4]. - A session on "Trump 2.0 Policies and the European Economy" will be led by Sun Yanhong, focusing on the economic relationship between China and Europe under these policies [4]. - Ding Chun from Fudan University will discuss the geopolitical relations in a multipolar world and the fiscal outlook for Germany [4]. - Hu Zong, CEO of Guotai Junan Securities (UK), will highlight the significance of the European market and cross-border financial services [4]. - A roundtable discussion will explore investment opportunities in the U.S. and European markets, featuring various experts from the finance sector [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid development of large models and their integration into intelligent driving, highlighting the growing consensus in the industry that L3 level intelligent driving is becoming commercially viable due to supportive policies [1][2] - The introduction of the Visual-Language-Action (VLA) model is expected to create a comprehensive cognitive framework similar to human drivers, influencing the landscape of intelligent driving and embodied intelligence, while presenting significant market and capital opportunities [1][2] Group 1: Key Presentations - The event featured speeches from industry leaders, including Chen Zhongyi from Guotai Junan Securities and Wu Heng from SAIC Group, emphasizing the importance of L3 intelligent driving and embodied intelligence [3] - Zhu Feng, Chief Analyst at Guotai Junan, presented on the VLA model as a key to achieving L3 intelligent driving [3] - Yuan Yuji from Momenta discussed the company's data-driven approach and dual-product strategy for scalable autonomous driving solutions, including mass production of assisted driving and RoboTaxi services [4] Group 2: Technological Innovations - He Yihan from Che Lian Tian Xia highlighted the evolution of intelligent cockpit large models, focusing on redefining vehicle experiences through AI and optimizing multiple large language models for practical applications [4] - Liu Bin from Juefei Technology emphasized the importance of data loops in driving high-quality development in intelligent driving, providing customized data engines and services [5] - Zhou Enze from Al-Link showcased innovations in automotive intelligent cockpit technology, significantly reducing development costs for car manufacturers while enhancing user experience [5] Group 3: Industry Trends - Wang Panqu from Zero One Automotive discussed the transition to intelligent heavy trucks under the VLA framework, aiming to become a leading global transportation robotics company through vertical integration and innovative design [6] - The event concluded with a roundtable discussion involving industry, investment, and banking sectors, focusing on the future of intelligent driving and investment opportunities [6]

1 国泰海通证券 | 研究所 消费时代 C DEMMER 1 国特周通证 铜归母净利润同 大多数种子 约先玉1 ¤在产量 1 国热热通证券 新清楚时代 【发时代 2000年 1982年 上海钻石 1 国泰海通辽养 V 恢复销售 交易所成立 黄金首饰 200 1993年 鼓比尔斯 fer 开启钻石推广 新消费时代 新道 Getty aH 1 国泰海通证券 1 国语海语馆 文化符号、收藏歌、分享歌 维深信息Wellsen 公司,公司致力为 客观、全面、有前 【播拆卡和页 1 国际用品区 公司自成立以来- 恒动性、参与! 国际局局近存 中国X型风量发 l 演员时代 2025年 9月2日-3日 上海 · 会符君悦大酒店 国泰海通证券 新消费时代 国泰海通证券 SUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES 国泰海通证券2025消费品年会 泰田 IP i 7月 2 202 E 国泰海通证券 GUOTAIHATONG SECURITIES 新消费时代 国泰海通证券2025消费品年会 国泰海通证 翻滿氣味 T N 国泰海通证券 新消费时代 国泰海通证券2025消费品年会 117 : 5消 2025年 9 国泰周旭址 泰 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing increased trading activity, with significant inflows from ETFs and other capital sources, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment and participation from retail investors [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Trading Activity - The trading heat in the A-share market has risen, with the average daily trading volume reaching 3 trillion yuan, and the turnover rate for the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 both rising to the 98th percentile [3]. - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit has decreased to 69, with the maximum consecutive limit-up days averaging 5.5, and the sealing rate slightly declining to 67.4% [3]. - The proportion of stocks that gained in value has dropped to 32.06%, with the median weekly return for all A-shares falling to -2.07% [3]. Group 2: Capital Flows - Public funds saw new issuance scale increase to 20.528 billion yuan, with equity funds increasing their positions [4]. - Foreign capital inflow reached 245 million USD as of August 27, with northbound trading accounting for 13.3% of total trading [4]. - The net inflow of ETFs expanded to 8.39 billion yuan, with passive trading significantly increasing to 6.1% of total trading volume [4]. Group 3: Industry Allocation - The technology and financial cyclical sectors are attracting significant capital, with net inflows in electronics (+30.15 billion yuan) and communications (+8.41 billion yuan) leading the way [5]. - Foreign capital has notably flowed into banking and electronics sectors, with no significant outflows reported [5]. - The top three industries on the trading leaderboard are computer, electronics, and machinery equipment [5]. Group 4: Hong Kong and Global Capital Flows - Southbound capital inflow increased to 22.17 billion yuan, marking a 75th percentile level since 2022, while foreign capital inflow into the Hong Kong market reached 34.1 million USD as of August 27 [6]. - Developed markets saw a net outflow of 3.85 billion USD, while emerging markets experienced a net inflow of 0.4 billion USD [6]. - Active foreign capital continues to flow into A-shares, with the inflow scale marginally expanding [6].