风险提示： 1 ）低空经济产业政策不及预期； 2 ）低空经济技术研发进程不及预期； 3 ）低空经济商业 化应用场景落地不及预期。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年6月12日发布的 沃飞长空与卧龙电驱成立合资公司，产业协同加速——低空经济热点点评 肖群稀 ，资格证书编号： S0880522120001 张 越 ，资格证书编号： S0880522090004 报告导读： 沃飞长空与卧龙电驱成立合资公司，聚焦电推进动力系统开发，低空经济商业 化有望进一步提速，动力系统环节有望受益。 投资建议 ： 动力系统与 eVTOL 整机企业积极合作，有望加速核心技术研发及成果转化，进一步强化低 空产业链协同效应， 产业化进程有望进一步提速。 沃飞长空与卧龙电驱成立合资公司，聚焦电推进动力系统开发 。 2025 年 6 月 11 日，卧龙电驱与沃飞 长空签订合资协议，成立合资公司"浙江龙飞电驱科技有限公司"，合资公司将先重点开发适用于倾转旋翼 eVTOL 的高性能电机及电驱系统，针对该构型在垂直起降阶段的高推力需求、巡航状态的高效能转换痛 点，推出兼具强劲动力与适航级可靠性的核心产品，同时通过技术开发与产业化落地，提供适用于 75 ...

Core Insights - The concentration of short positions in TS contracts is driven by significant entry of arbitrage funds, with expectations that the basis will initially widen slightly before stabilizing [1][3] - The current low interest rate environment, cautious sentiment in the bond market, and high Internal Rate of Return (IRR) are key factors influencing this phenomenon [1] Summary by Sections Historical Context - The concentration of short positions in TS contracts was observed from early 2024 to May 2024, driven by the entry of arbitrage funds and a surge in bullish sentiment [2] - The basis of TS contracts dropped to -0.24 yuan, while IRR peaked at 3.4%, attracting more arbitrage funds [2] Current Market Analysis - As of now, the short position held by CITIC Futures has peaked and is beginning to decline, indicating a potential for the basis to widen slightly before stabilizing [3] - The influx of arbitrage funds has led to a noticeable recovery in the current TS contract basis, although the incremental entry of these funds is expected to be limited [3]

Group 1 - The global industrial chain, monetary system, and asset analysis framework are undergoing reconstruction due to diminishing trust among countries, with gold potentially entering a long-term bull market driven by de-dollarization and ongoing central bank purchases [3] - Domestic economic demand remains to be boosted, and policies are expected to maintain a gradually positive tone [3] - Inflation is hovering at low levels, with the key to its rebound lying internally rather than externally, suggesting that policy efforts may become more aggressive in the second half of the year [5] Group 2 - May export growth has slowed, not due to previous over-shipments or temporary fluctuations, but rather due to the peak and subsequent decline of tariff expectations, indicating a resilient export sector despite a lower central tendency [9] - The high-interest rate environment caused by recent dollar credit discounts has led to a notable slowdown in private credit expansion in the U.S., creating a fragile balance that requires careful policy management to avoid potential debt crises [11] - The market for human-robot bearings is expected to see significant growth due to the development of humanoid robots, with domestic replacement opportunities becoming increasingly prominent [27] Group 3 - The recent trading heat in Chinese assets has increased, with a notable inflow of financing funds and new equity fund issuances exceeding 10 billion [13] - The Hong Kong stock market is emerging as a key battleground in the current bull market, driven by the scarcity of attractive assets and supportive domestic policies [16] - The expansion of ETFs is beneficial for credit bonds, with significant differences in duration and component concentration between Shanghai and Shenzhen market indices [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the pressure on newly issued and existing equity fund shares in May, with institutional funds flowing into bond funds and individual funds increasing in index products [1][2][3] Group 2 - As of May 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in the market reached 32.01 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.29%. The total fund shares stood at 29.58 trillion, showing a slight decrease of 0.01% [1] - The total share of equity funds was 6.33 trillion, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.34%, while bond funds totaled 9.1 billion shares, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [1] - In May 2025, the newly issued funds amounted to 657.59 billion shares, a decrease of 28.68% compared to the previous month, with equity funds at 295.38 billion shares, down 39.45% [1] - The retention rate of existing funds in the market was 99.77%, with equity funds at 99.19% and bond funds at 100% [1] Group 3 - Institutional funds are increasingly flowing into bond funds, including long-term pure bond, mixed secondary bond, and bond index funds, while individual investors are favoring index products [2] - Low-risk investors are still investing in various fixed-income products such as insurance and bank wealth management, leading to an increase in institutional fund sizes [2] Group 4 - The new public fund regulations released on May 7 aim to promote high-quality development in the industry, focusing on product, sales channels, and operational governance, with a core emphasis on assessment mechanisms [3] - The first batch of floating management fee rate funds has been approved for issuance, with significant subscription sizes indicating strong market interest [3] - AI applications and innovations are being introduced, such as the "Help You See" service by Huatai Fund, which aims to enhance investor decision-making [3]

特斯拉 Optimus 机器人项目主管离职，自动驾驶负责人接任。 美东时间 6 月 6 日，特斯拉擎天柱人形 机器人 Optimus 项目负责人米兰·科瓦奇宣布了自己即将离职的消息。科瓦奇 2016 年加入特斯拉，在特 斯拉工作了近 10 年，其中大部分时间都是在 Autopilot 团队担任高级工程师。他于 2022 年被任命领导 Optimus 的开发，并于 2024 年底成为负责该项目的副总裁。特斯拉人工智能软件部门副总裁 Ashok Elluswamy 将接管 Optimus 项目。 报告导读： 马斯克公布了特斯拉的自动驾驶出租车服务 Robotaxi 的首次公开试运营日 期，暂定为 6 月 22 日，我们认为 Robotaxi 的运营有望对特斯拉产业链带来重要业绩增 量。 我们认为，特斯拉是引领 Robotaxi 和人形机器人产业商业化进程的全球龙头企业，随着特斯拉 Robotaxi 正式开启公开试运营，相关产业正在进入由 0 到 1 的拐点阶段，特斯拉 Robotaxi 和人形机器 人的放量有望为相关产业链带来重要的业绩增量，需重点关注产业链上具备确定性的优质公司。 马斯克宣布特斯拉 Robota ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of various domestic asset allocation strategies in May 2025, indicating a mixed performance across different strategies and asset classes, with a notable focus on the risk parity strategy achieving the highest year-to-date return of 1.73% [1][3]. Group 1: Asset Strategy Performance - Domestic Asset BL Strategy 1 recorded a May return of -0.22% and a year-to-date return of 0.96% [1][3]. - Domestic Asset BL Strategy 2 had a May return of -0.1% and a year-to-date return of 1.05% [1][3]. - The Domestic Asset Risk Parity Strategy achieved a May return of 0.29% and a year-to-date return of 1.73% [1][3]. - The Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Strategy reported a May return of 0.27% and a year-to-date return of 1.45% [1][3]. Group 2: Major Asset Trends - In May 2025, domestic equity assets performed well, with the Hang Seng Index, CSI 300, and others showing significant gains, while gold experienced a pullback [2]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 3.96%, CSI 300 by 1.85%, and the total wealth index of corporate bonds by 0.41% [2]. - The South China Commodity Index and SHFE gold saw declines of 2.4% and 1.39%, respectively [2]. - Correlation analysis indicated a -36.97% correlation between CSI 300 and the total wealth index of government bonds over the past year [2]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Insights - As of the end of May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was at 49.5%, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [4]. - The PPI for April showed a year-on-year decline of -2.7%, with expectations for May at -3.17%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [4]. - The central bank conducted a MLF operation of 550 billion yuan, net injecting 400 billion yuan to support special bond issuance [4]. - The social financing scale stood at 424 trillion yuan at the end of April 2025, reflecting the credit environment [4].

文章来源 报告导读： 5 月美国 CPI 环比回落，增速不及预期，核心商品中仅个别分项存在价格上 涨，整体尚未体现出关税影响。我们认为，在库存缓冲、关税政策与消费需求不确定性影 响下，企业提价或存在一定时滞， 6 月通胀数据仍存在反弹压力。在就业尚稳，通胀不确 定性仍存的情况下，美联储短期仍难以降息。 2025 年 5 月美国通胀环比回落，增速不及预期。 5 月美国 CPI 同比 2.4% （前值 2.3% ，市场预期 2.4% ），核心 CPI 同比维持在 2.8% （市场预期 2.9% ）。环比来看， 5 月 CPI 环比 0.1% ，前值 0.2% ，略低于市场预期（ 0.2% ）；核心 CPI 环比 0.1% ，前值 0.2% ，市场预期 0.3% 。 具体来看， 5 月除食品通胀环比有所回升外，能源、核心商品与核心服务通胀环比均较 4 月有所回落。 其中，能源是拖累 CPI 环比的核心分项。 核心商品方面， 5 月尚未体现出明显的通胀回升压力，仅在个 别分项通胀涨幅相对明显，例如家具（窗帘地毯）、汽车零件、玩具、电脑、药品等。而服装、新车、酒 精饮料等通胀环比增速均有回落； 核心服务方面 ， 租金、 ...

文章来源 本文摘自：2025年6月10日发布的 5月出口增速回落但韧性仍强 刘越男 ，资格证书编号： S0880516030003 陈 笑 ，资格证书编号： S0880518020002 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 报告导读： 5 月出口受关税及上年高基数影响，随中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展，出海链 受益，部分对美敞口高的公司望迎估值修复。 5 月出口增速趋缓。 1) 海关总署披露 5 月进出口数据，按美元计进出口增速 1.3%/ 环比 -3.3pct ，其 中出口增速 4.8%/ 环比 -3.3pct 、进口增速 -3.4%/ 环比 -3.2pct ；我们认为主要因关税冲击叠加上 年高基数影响，但出口在同比减少 2 个工作日的情况下仍正增凸显外贸韧性，我们认为得益于中美会谈后 的政策利好、贸易伙伴持续扩容及外贸企业通过保税物流、转口贸易等模式灵活应对关税壁垒的能力提 升； 2) 分区域： 5 月对美国 / 欧盟出口增速分别 -35/12%( 前值分别 -21/8%) ，对美出口下滑较显 著；对非洲 / 东盟 / 拉美出口增速分别 33/15/2%( 前值分别 25/21/17%) ...

Group 1 - The relationship between new and second-hand housing markets is currently under discussion, particularly regarding the smoothness of the replacement chain and the impact of the launch of fourth-generation residential properties on the second-hand market [1] - The phenomenon of second-hand housing prices being lower than new housing prices in some hot cities raises questions about the divergence in price trends between the two markets and whether this indicates a potential crisis in the second-hand market [1] - In Shanghai's land market during the first quarter of this year, several high-premium plots were observed, prompting an analysis of common characteristics among these plots and their potential impact on the new housing market [1] Group 2 - The luxury housing market in Shanghai remains robust, leading to inquiries about the sustainability of this trend and whether future urban renewal in core areas will reignite the luxury market [1] - Predictions regarding the future price trends in Shanghai's housing market suggest potential differentiation among various segments, including first-time buyers, upgrades, and different urban rings [1] - Key factors influencing homebuyers' decisions are identified, with a focus on whether first-time buyers should consider purchasing during a price decline and how to assess if prices in their city have reached a bottom [1]

报告导读： 随着近期美元信用折价导致的高利率环境持续，美国私人信贷扩张明显降温， 美元来到一个脆弱边界的紧平衡，美国当局需要在远景目标（长期贸易回流）与短期风险 （潜在债务危机）之间重新平衡，一旦政策端对于基本面恶化的响应速度不及时、态度不 彻底，那么美元资产的尾部风险不容忽视。反之亦然。 过去模式：高增长、高利率 — > 强美元 逻辑上，一国汇率强弱理应取决于 全球资本对该国货币的持有意愿（资本净流入） 。 但我们拆解美国的 国际收支平衡表发现，全球资本净流入与美元指数的相关性并不强，本质在于美国的资本净流入与贸易净 流出是镜像关系（孪生赤字）， 很难说资本净流入是由于对于美元资产吸引力更强，还是贸易竞争力更 差； 进一步看结构，我们发现美元指数与 股权直接投资 的净流入相关性最强，最近几年与 债权证券投资 的净 流入相关性更强。说明 美元强弱本质上取决于美国投资回报率预期（高息美元、增长预期） 。 美元信用的内在支撑：私人部门财富扩张 美国经济的本质驱动是 美国私人部门资产负债表的良性扩张，带来净资产的上涨。 而净资产的上涨进一 步抬升增长预期和利率水平，带来全球资本的持续涌入。 因此我们发现，美国居民净 ...