报告来源 报告导读： 预计上市银行 2025 年前三季度累计营收及归母净利润分别同比增长 0.4% 、 1.1% ，增速较中报 -0.6pct 、 +0.3pct 。主要得益于息差同比降幅收窄和减值计提 下降。 我们预计上市银行 2025 年前三季度累计营收及归母净利润分别同比增长 0.4% 、 1.1% ，增速较中报 -0.6pct 、 +0.3pct 。 主要得益于息差同比降幅收 窄和减值计提下降让渡空间，但债市宽幅震荡拖累其他非息收入不确定性上升，个股投资收益表现取决于银行跨期摆布策略选择（至 25Q2 末上市银行 OCI 浮盈达 1871 亿元，相当于 2024 年归母净利润的 8.5% ， AC 账户浮盈或更丰厚）。板块内城商行业绩增速有望保持领先，国有行营收同比正增承压，但 净利润增速大概率转正。 营收端，利息净收入和手续费及佣金净收入有望延续年初以来改善态势、同比增速较中报进一步回升，但其他非息收入受债市波动和高基数拖累，单季同比负 增幅度或超两位数、拖曳前三季度累计营收增速微正。 利息净收入方面，生息资产同比增速 25Q2 冲高后回落，我们预计较中报下降 0.6pct 至 9.2% ； 25Q ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the tactical overweight view on A/H shares due to multiple supporting factors such as China's technological breakthroughs, stable total policy expectations, and capital market reforms that enhance market risk appetite [1] - The article notes that the trade risk boundaries are clearer, with China's countermeasures directly targeting key issues, making further U.S. tariffs less meaningful [1] - There is a continuous demand for quality assets in China, driven by the need to "find assets," which may provide allocation opportunities amid external market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The article maintains a tactical benchmark view on U.S. Treasuries, anticipating a mild decline in actual interest rates due to the Fed's increasingly dovish monetary policy guidance [1] - The article highlights that the imbalance between credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market, despite previous adjustments [2] - The article expresses a positive outlook on gold, noting that it has surpassed key resistance levels and is supported by global geopolitical tensions and ongoing purchases by the Chinese central bank [2] Group 3 - The article asserts that the resilience of the Chinese economy and the decreasing risk of extreme geopolitical conflicts support the stability and appreciation of the RMB exchange rate [3] - It predicts that the RMB will exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with a stable appreciation trend amid a complex global macro environment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that listed banks will see a cumulative revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders growth of 0.4% and 1.1% respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, with improvements attributed to a narrowing decline in interest margins and a decrease in impairment provisions [1]. Revenue Analysis - Interest net income and net income from fees and commissions are expected to continue improving, with year-on-year growth rates rebounding further compared to mid-year reports. However, other non-interest income may experience a significant decline due to bond market volatility and high base effects, potentially leading to a slight positive growth in cumulative revenue for the first three quarters [2]. - The growth rate of interest net income is projected to decrease by 0.6 percentage points to 9.2% compared to mid-year reports, with new RMB loans from financial institutions in Q3 2025 amounting to 1.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 920 billion yuan. The net interest margin is expected to narrow from 14 basis points to 12 basis points year-on-year, remaining stable at 1.41% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Profitability Insights - The asset quality remains stable, with expectations for credit costs to continue declining, smoothing out profit fluctuations. Banks are likely to maintain a prudent operating style, with excess impairment provisions set aside in the first half of the year to address uncertainties. As the economy stabilizes in the second half, the space for reducing provisions will gradually increase, leading to a potential sequential rise in net profit growth [3]. - The banking sector has disposed of over 14.5 trillion yuan in non-performing assets from 2021 to the first half of 2025, with retail banking risks having peaked. For instance, the retail non-performing loan generation rate for a major bank in Q2 2025 was 1.65%, lower than levels seen in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable compared to mid-year reports, with a slight decrease in the provision coverage ratio and a year-on-year decline in credit costs of approximately 4 basis points to 0.40% [3]. Investment Recommendations - As the mid-term dividend timeline for banks approaches, there may be opportunities for the sector to catch up if market sentiment shifts towards balance as the year-end approaches [4].

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is experiencing significant short-term valuation compression, but given the resilience of the equity market, convertible bonds still present investment opportunities, particularly through a low premium strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index declined by 1.47% last week, while the China Convertible Bond Index fell by 2.35%, indicating a notable compression in convertible bond valuations [1]. - Institutional profit-taking is a major factor influencing short-term valuations in the convertible bond market, although long-term trends remain positive as long as the equity market continues its upward trajectory [1][2]. Group 2: Valuation and Risks - As of October 17, the average parity of convertible bonds was 97.34 yuan, with an average conversion premium rate of 39.99%. High premium convertible bonds have seen significant compression in their conversion premium rates due to increased expectations of forced redemptions [1]. - Large-scale convertible bonds with high premiums face risks related to forced redemptions, particularly when conversion premium rates are elevated, which could lead to dilution of the underlying stock [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Despite external disturbances, the equity market's upward trend is expected to continue, providing a favorable environment for convertible bonds, which exhibit resilience and potential for both appreciation and downside protection [2]. - In a sustained bull market, a low premium strategy is recommended as it allows for better participation in the underlying stock's gains while minimizing valuation compression risks. The technology sector, particularly semiconductor stocks and TMT industries benefiting from increased AI capital expenditure, is highlighted as a key area for investment [2].

Group 1 - The article maintains a tactical overweight view on A/H shares, supported by multiple factors such as the ongoing enthusiasm for China's technological breakthroughs and emerging industries, stable total policy expectations, and capital market reforms that boost market risk appetite [1] - The article highlights that the trade risks are relatively clear, with China's countermeasures directly targeting key issues, and the impact of U.S. tariffs becoming less significant [1] - There is a continuous demand for quality assets in China, driven by the need for investors to "find assets," which may provide allocation opportunities amid external market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The article suggests a tactical benchmark view on U.S. Treasuries, as expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve may lead to a mild decline in real interest rates [1] - The article notes that the balance of credit supply and demand remains unbalanced, which, along with stable liquidity, supports the bond market [2] - The article anticipates that geopolitical uncertainties and rising risk aversion will lead to fluctuations in domestic interest rates, while the marginal improvement in liquidity may stabilize bond market sentiment [2] Group 3 - The article maintains a tactical benchmark view on the Chinese yuan, citing the resilience of the Chinese economy and the expectation of a stable appreciation of the yuan amid a complex global macro environment [3] - It is expected that the yuan will exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with a stable central tendency [3] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the positive outlook for gold, maintaining a tactical overweight view, as gold prices have surged past key resistance levels due to supportive factors such as Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2] - The article predicts that gold will continue to perform well in the short term and has long-term allocation value [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights a "strong production, weak demand" pattern in China's economy for Q3 2025, necessitating structural policy adjustments to address internal and external demand pressures [1] Economic Performance - China's GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from Q2 [1] - Monthly data indicates a shift in economic dynamics due to policy transitions and holiday timing, with September showing strong production but weak demand [1] Production Sector - Structural improvements in the production sector were noted, with resilient exports and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival contributing positively [1] - The "anti-involution" policies have lessened their disruptive effects on production, leading to a focus on quality enhancement rather than mere scale expansion [1] Demand Sector - Consumer growth appears sluggish, with holiday timing causing a delay in consumption [1] - The effectiveness of trade-in policies has diminished, and property income has negatively impacted income growth and consumer confidence [1] Investment Trends - Investment continues to face challenges, although new infrastructure initiatives are showing marginal signs of improvement [1] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests employing structural tools for counter-cyclical adjustments, such as expanding equipment renewal subsidies, issuing consumption vouchers, and optimizing export tax rebates to mitigate current economic downturn pressures [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significance of Vietnam as a key economic partner for China and a focal point for Chinese enterprises looking to expand into Southeast Asia [2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Vietnam Investment Forum" is scheduled for October 21, 2025, in Shanghai, aimed at exploring investment opportunities in Vietnam [2]. - The forum will feature prominent speakers from various sectors, including finance, manufacturing, and law, to discuss collaboration and future prospects [2][3]. Group 2: Key Topics and Speakers - The forum will cover topics such as Vietnam's macroeconomic outlook and investment prospects, presented by Liang Wentao, a former Deputy Director of the Ministry of Commerce [3]. - Discussions will include the current status and trends of Chinese enterprises investing in Vietnam, led by Yuan Yuzhu, a lawyer specializing in Sino-Vietnamese affairs [3]. - The event will also address the challenges and opportunities in the Vietnamese snack market, presented by Zheng Xiaodong, General Manager of Kisnac Vietnam [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030) is crucial for China to achieve its 2035 modernization goals, emphasizing the need for high-quality development driven by new productivity and technological innovation [1] Group 1: International Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will face unprecedented changes in the global landscape, with a shift in power dynamics and intensified competition in technology and industries [2] - The restructuring of global supply chains is characterized by regionalization, nearshoring, and localization, necessitating a proactive approach to adapt to these changes [2] - The weakening of multilateral mechanisms like the WTO and the intensifying competition in emerging fields such as digital economy and climate change require China to enhance its openness and adaptability [2] Group 2: Domestic Development Conditions - China is experiencing a new normal with both advantages and constraints, including challenges from population aging and diminishing traditional cost advantages [2] - The release of human capital and the transition from quantity to quality in the super-large market indicate a shift in economic growth drivers, with the digital economy now accounting for over 40% of GDP [2] - Despite advancements in R&D investment and patent output, China still faces risks in key core technology areas [2] Group 3: Strategic Goals and Policy Framework - The report outlines strategic goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan," aiming for an average annual economic growth rate of approximately 4.73% to double the economy or per capita income by 2035 [3] - Key quality and efficiency indicators include a rapid increase in labor productivity, R&D investment intensity reaching 3%, and a significant rise in the share of non-fossil energy consumption to around 25% [3] - The report proposes six policy recommendations, including building a modern industrial system centered on new productivity, deepening reform and opening up, promoting green transformation, and enhancing governance efficiency [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a recovery in the interest rate market, particularly in the underperforming secondary perpetual bonds and credit bonds, with a more pronounced recovery in perpetual bonds. The credit spread for medium to short-term bonds has narrowed significantly, leading to a steeper spread curve [1]. Primary Issuance - Net financing has seen a significant increase, with a total issuance of 4011.9 billion yuan in major credit bond varieties last week (October 13 - October 17, 2025), compared to a net financing of -35.1 billion yuan in the previous week (October 9 - October 11, 2025) [1]. Secondary Trading - Trading activity has increased, with total transactions in major credit bond varieties reaching 9165.71 billion yuan last week, a rise of 6748.54 billion yuan from the previous week. The yields on medium-term notes have generally declined, with specific decreases noted for AAA and AA+ rated notes [2]. Credit Rating Adjustments and Default Tracking - No credit rating adjustments were made by domestic rating agencies last week. However, one new default bond was reported, issued by Sunshine City Group Co., Ltd. [3].

Group 1: Core Views - The "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) is crucial for establishing a foundation for achieving the 2035 modernization goals, focusing on high-quality development driven by new productive forces [2][3] - The core development line emphasizes technological innovation, with key areas including artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and low-altitude economy becoming strategic focuses in international competition [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Goals - Economic growth should maintain an average of approximately 4.73% annually to achieve the long-term goal of doubling GDP or per capita income by 2035 [3] - Key quality indicators include a continuous increase in labor productivity, R&D investment intensity reaching 3%, and a rise in the share of non-fossil energy consumption to around 25% [3] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - A systematic policy framework is proposed, including building a modern industrial system centered on new productive forces, deepening reform and opening up, and promoting green low-carbon transformation [4] - Emphasis on enhancing governance efficiency through reforms and digital governance to modernize national governance [4] Group 4: AI Industry Insights - OpenAI has signed a 10 GW computing power order with Broadcom, planning to launch custom data center chips by 2026, indicating a strategic move towards building foundational hardware capabilities [7] - OpenAI is exploring new business models, including partnerships with Walmart for direct purchasing through ChatGPT and plans to launch consumer hardware products, aiming for diversified monetization [8] - TSMC has observed stronger AI demand compared to three months ago, with optimistic revenue guidance for Q4, reflecting confidence in the AI growth trajectory [9]