Core Viewpoint - The domestic wholesale sales of passenger cars in May showed a month-on-month and year-on-year increase, with a notable decrease in inventory by 110,000 units, and strong export performance. It is recommended to focus on companies that are in a new car cycle and are leading in intelligence [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In May, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 2.31 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8% and a month-on-month increase of 5.5% [2]. - Cumulative wholesale sales from January to May totaled 10.784 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [2]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - The overall inventory of passenger car manufacturers decreased by 110,000 units in May, compared to a decrease of 90,000 units in the same month last year [2]. - The cumulative inventory for the industry from January to May remained flat compared to the same period last year, marking a change from the continuous inventory reduction seen in the past two years [2]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Insights - In May, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 52.6%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points month-on-month [3]. - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.216 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 33.0% and a month-on-month increase of 7.0% [3]. - Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to May reached 5.2 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 40.0% [3]. Group 4: Export Performance - In May, the total export of passenger vehicles (including complete vehicles and CKD) was 448,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.5% and a month-on-month increase of 6.0% [3]. - Cumulative exports from January to May reached 2 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [3]. - The export of new energy passenger vehicles was 200,000 units in May, showing a year-on-year increase of 80.9% and accounting for 44.6% of total passenger vehicle exports, an increase of 16.6 percentage points year-on-year [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the integration of vocational and general education, with a strong demand for high school education supported by government policies and a projected population dividend lasting for 7-8 years [1][2] - The high school education sector is expected to benefit from policy support aimed at expanding educational resources and promoting vocational education integration, as outlined in the 2025 Education Strong Nation Construction Plan [2][3] - The proportion of private high schools is increasing, with significant growth potential in the central and western regions of China, where vocational and general education integration is more pronounced [3] Group 2 - In 2023, the number of high school students reached 28.04 million, with private high school enrollment accounting for 20% of the total, up from 10% in 2011, indicating a growing trend in private education [3] - The government is actively promoting the integration of vocational and general education, as evidenced by the removal of "vocational-general separation" from the revised Vocational Education Law in 2022 [2] - The demand for high school education remains robust, with the number of candidates for the college entrance examination reaching 12.91 million in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 8%, reflecting a rising participation rate among the eligible population [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the easing of trade tensions, the private sector's risk appetite has rebounded and then declined, with limited progress in balance sheet repair, leading to persistently low inflation. The key to inflation recovery lies internally rather than externally, with more proactive policy measures expected in the second half of the year [1]. CPI Analysis - CPI remained low in May, with seasonal declines in food prices and input pressures from international oil prices. Service prices showed resilience, leading to an expanding gap between CPI and core CPI year-on-year [1][2]. - The transportation and communication prices decreased due to national subsidies and falling oil prices, which significantly impacted May's CPI. Core CPI remained flat at 0.0% month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year increase to 0.6% [3]. PPI Analysis - PPI recovery faced multiple constraints, including a decline in international commodity prices affecting domestic industries, particularly in oil and gas extraction, which saw significant month-on-month price drops [4][5]. - Adverse weather conditions impacted the peak season for coal demand, leading to a continued weakening trend in extraction prices, with construction materials like cement and rebar also showing notable declines in May [5]. - A slight month-on-month decline in exports exacerbated supply-demand mismatches, with tariff impacts on exports becoming more apparent. The easing of trade tensions has not significantly aided the repair of private sector balance sheets, as evidenced by a drop in risk appetite indicators [6].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in export growth in May 2025 is attributed to the peak and subsequent decline of tariff expectations, revealing the impact of tariffs on exports. However, exports still show resilience despite the expected drop in the export central tendency [1][5]. Overall Summary - In May 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 4.8% (previously 8.1%), while import growth was -3.4% (previously -0.2%). Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% compared to April, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels [2]. Trade Balance - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025 [3]. Export Structure - By country, the export growth rates to the US, ASEAN, and Latin America saw significant declines, recording -34.5%, 14.8%, and 2.3% respectively. In contrast, exports to other regions increased to 11.8% (previously 10.4%). In terms of product structure, agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw a notable decline, while machinery and raw materials remained relatively stable. Notably, exports of integrated circuits and ships in the machinery sector continued to perform strongly, with a resurgence in automotive exports [4]. Divergent Interpretations of Export Data - Optimists argue that the strong performance in April (8.1%) despite high tariffs suggests a rebound in May following the tariff easing on May 14, predicting a significant export rebound in June. Conversely, pessimists believe that the resilience in April was due to preemptive exports before the tariff implementation, and the decline in May indicates a depletion of future orders. The article concludes that the decline in May's export growth is a result of the cooling of preemptive exports and the impact of tariffs, but previous preemptive and transshipment trade has not significantly depleted future orders. Looking ahead, short-term indicators suggest that June's export growth may be supported by the easing of tariffs, while a normalization of exports is expected, leading to a gradual decline in export momentum without a drastic drop [5].

报告导读： 近期 BD 催化不断，持续推荐创新药，同时加大对 Pharma 的推荐。 本文摘自：2025年6月8日发布的 持续推荐创新药，加大对Pharma的推荐 余文心 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040111 郑 琴 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040108 谈嘉程 ，资格证书编号： S0880523070004 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 2025 年 6 月第一周 A 股医药板块表现与大盘相当。 2025 年 6 月第一周（ 2025/6/3-2025/6/6 ） 上证综指上涨 1.1% ， SW 医药生物上涨 1.1% ，涨跌幅在申万一级行业中排名第 16 位，生物医药板 块中表现相对较好的 ...

投资建议： 近期科技板块利好持续释放，各类新技术、新政策、新业态持续落地，我们维持计算机板块 " 增持 " 评级。 报告导读： 中国香港发布《稳定币条例》，带动稳定币市场增长进入全新阶段，政务数据 与 AI 领域也同样在持续稳步发展。 本文摘自：2025年6月8日发布的 稳定币发展迎来重大利好，政务数据与AI同样值得关注 杨 林 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040027 杨昊翊 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040126 魏 宗 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040058 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 中国香港《稳定币条例》将于 8 月 1 日生效，稳定币发展迎来重大利好。 根据 21 世纪经济报道官微， 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article systematically categorizes A-share listed companies into four lifecycle stages: startup, growth, maturity, and consolidation, based on cash flow, and constructs corresponding optimal portfolios for each stage, achieving annualized excess returns of 14.0%, 15.0%, and 19.5% relative to benchmark indices since 2016 [1][3]. Group 1: Lifecycle Stages Characteristics - Startup companies typically have smaller market capitalizations, unstable profitability, and low dividend yields, but invest heavily in R&D [1]. - Growth companies show improved profitability with a balanced exposure across various factors [1]. - Mature companies are characterized by large market capitalizations, stable profitability, high dividend payout ratios, and healthier capital structures with lower debt ratios [1]. - Consolidation companies experience reduced scale, poorer profitability, lower dividend yields, and higher leverage with significant debt repayment pressures [1]. Group 2: Performance and Risk Characteristics - The buy-and-hold combinations across different lifecycle stages exhibit varying risk-return profiles, with mature companies showing the most stability and highest cumulative returns over time [2]. - Growth stock portfolios perform closely to market indices, while startup and consolidation stock portfolios exhibit higher volatility and lower returns [2]. - Factor performance varies across lifecycle stages, with low volatility and low turnover rates performing best in the riskier startup and consolidation phases [2]. Group 3: Optimal Portfolio Construction - The company constructs optimal portfolios for each lifecycle stage considering investment logic, factor effectiveness, and correlations, with the mature portfolio demonstrating the highest stability and an annualized return of 16.9% since 2016 [2]. - The mature portfolio has shown positive excess returns relative to common broad indices like the CSI All Share Index, CSI 300, and CSI 800 in most years, except for a 12% decline in 2018 [2].

Group 1: Cement Industry - The national cement market price decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, with price drops mainly in Shanxi, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, and Guangdong, ranging from 10 to 20 CNY per ton [1] - Some regions, including Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangxi, experienced price increases of 20 to 30 CNY per ton [1] - Domestic cement demand remains weak due to multiple adverse factors, with an average shipment rate of 48% in key regions [1] - Although the Yangtze River Delta region has started to increase prices, the overall demand insufficiency and unclear peak production execution may hinder the effectiveness of this price increase [1] Group 2: Glass and Fiberglass - The average price of float glass in China is 1250.27 CNY per ton, down by 20.69 CNY per ton from the previous week, indicating a weak market with increased inventory due to the Dragon Boat Festival [2] - The fiberglass market saw local high prices decrease, while electronic yarn prices remained stable; however, demand is still weak with limited order growth [2] - The overall supply of non-alkali fiberglass is expected to maintain a certain growth rate, but competition among leading companies remains strong [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - June marks the beginning of a low base period for construction materials demand, with a significant decline expected from June to September 2024 due to local debt pressures in developed regions [3] - The glass processing sector shows resilience, with leading companies benefiting from high barriers to competition and favorable valuation and dividend advantages [3] - The fiberglass sector is seeing gradual price increases for long-term contracts, with leading companies having a higher sales proportion of high-end products [3]

Group 1: IPO Market Insights - The regulatory environment is increasingly supportive of high-quality IPO development, particularly for technology innovation companies, with multiple reforms implemented since 2025 [1][2] - New stock first-day price increases remain high, and the number of accounts participating in new stock subscriptions is rapidly recovering, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - The expected number of new stock issuances in 2025 is projected to be between 80 to 140, with a total fundraising scale around 94 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Shipping and Transportation Sector - The shipping industry is experiencing ongoing impacts from tariff policies, with a focus on the restructuring of shipping alliances and the potential for changes in global trade patterns [3] - The oil shipping sector is benefiting from increased crude oil production, which is expected to boost demand, alongside a favorable outlook due to the potential for falling oil prices [4][5] - The dry bulk shipping market is anticipated to gradually recover, driven by increased iron ore production and a potential rise in demand [6] Group 3: Bearing Industry and Robotics - The rise of humanoid robots is expected to create significant demand for bearings, particularly as high-end bearings and processing equipment currently rely heavily on imports, indicating substantial room for domestic substitution [9][10] - The global bearing market is projected to grow from 121.3 billion USD in 2021 to over 243.03 billion USD by 2030, with China being a major manufacturing hub [10][11] - The complexity of bearing processing technology presents challenges, particularly in high-precision grinding equipment, where domestic production is still below 50% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in promotional strategies during the 618 shopping festival, focusing on longer promotional periods and direct discounts per item rather than relying on GMV metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Platform Dynamics - The 618 promotional period has been extended to 38 days for JD.com, with Tmall and Douyin also adjusting their promotional timelines to enhance user decision-making [3]. - Major platforms are moving away from traditional cross-store discounts to "official direct discounts," with reductions of at least 15% and some items seeing discounts of up to 50% [3]. - The new single-item discount policy is expected to simplify user purchasing decisions, potentially increasing conversion rates despite a possible decline in overall GMV [3]. Group 2: Corporate Strategies - National subsidies are enhancing discount offerings, with brands like Ecovacs and Roborock providing significant price reductions during the 618 event [4]. - The pricing strategy for new and high-end SKUs has been adjusted, with discounts allowing for competitive pricing around 2000 yuan for flagship products [4]. - The anticipated increase in sales volume during the 618 event is supported by the combination of national subsidies and enhanced brand pricing strategies, although competition remains intense [4]. Group 3: Sales Performance Insights - Initial sales data from the first week of the 2025 618 event indicates a slowdown in overall industry growth compared to earlier months, attributed to the removal of the order bundling discount mechanism [5]. - Despite the potential decline in GMV, the actual conversion rates and return rates may improve, warranting further observation of corporate performance [5].