Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the successful path of IQOS by Philip Morris International, emphasizing the importance of product strength, marketing, and channel strategies in establishing a brand value proposition that resonates with consumers [3]. Market Overview - The global HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is entering a new product lifecycle phase, with major brands actively participating in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry scale expansion [3]. - In Japan, HNB products have a high penetration rate, with projections indicating that by 2024, the penetration rate will exceed 40%, and in key cities like Tokyo, it may surpass 50% [3]. Strategic Review - **Product Strategy**: Philip Morris has focused on the IQOS product line, investing heavily in R&D and patent protection to maintain a technological edge in heating technology, ensuring stable taste and ease of cleaning as core advantages [4]. - **Marketing Approach**: The company leverages its strong brand management capabilities, creating a brand identity centered around user experience and lifestyle, enhancing consumer engagement throughout the product lifecycle [4]. - **Flavor Development**: Initially targeting traditional tobacco products, the company has continuously iterated its product offerings to enhance consumer loyalty and repeat purchases, aligning with the brand's message of "beyond tobacco" [4]. - **Channel Strategy**: Emphasis is placed on immersive in-store experiences to strengthen brand visibility and consumer engagement, supported by a robust online and offline distribution network [4]. Regional Insights - The regulatory environment in Japan is favorable for HNB products, contrasting with the more fragmented and competitive landscape in Europe, where e-cigarettes face less stringent regulations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements and investment opportunities in China's innovative drug sector, particularly focusing on PD-(L)1/VEGF dual antibodies, which are gaining traction through large-scale business development (BD) deals and promising clinical data [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the A-share innovative drug sector from June 1 to June 30, 2025, 28 out of 52 listed companies saw an average increase of 2.6%, while in the H-share sector, 35 out of 49 companies experienced an average increase of 9.2% [1]. - From May 1 to June 24, 2025, 25 innovative drugs received CDE approval, with 17 being domestic and 8 imported; additionally, 21 innovative drugs submitted NDA applications, with 14 domestic and 7 imported [1]. Group 2: Business Development Trends - There have been five PD-(L)1/VEGF dual antibodies that reached BD agreements with overseas pharmaceutical companies, with transaction amounts hitting new highs; for instance, the deal between 3SBio and Pfizer for SSGJ-707 totaled $60.5 billion, including an upfront payment of $12.5 billion [2]. - The surge in large BD transactions is attributed to the shift from single-target to multi-target drug paradigms in tumor immunotherapy, the urgent need for multinational corporations (MNCs) to enhance their oncology pipelines due to patent cliffs, and the availability of substantial cash reserves among large pharmaceutical companies [2]. Group 3: Clinical Pipeline Progress - As of June 2025, approximately 20 PD-(L)1/VEGF dual and tri-antibodies are in development in China, with several candidates like AK112 from CanSino Biologics already approved for first-line NSCLC treatment and others in various clinical stages [3]. - The clinical trial data for PD-(L)1/VEGF drugs show promising results across multiple cancer types, with AK112 achieving significant mPFS benefits in NSCLC and high ORR and DCR rates in other indications [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report aims to capture global multi-asset investment opportunities based on market conditions and design corresponding investment strategies, including stock-bond target allocation, low-volatility fixed income combinations, and global asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Stock-bond target allocation strategy utilizes a risk budget design method to construct a stock-bond portfolio, achieving expected levels while providing a better long-term risk-return profile compared to fixed allocation [2]. - Low-volatility "fixed income +" strategy constructs a portfolio with a target allocation of stocks: gold: bonds = 1:1:4, achieving an annualized return of 6.89% and a maximum drawdown of -4.92% over the backtest period [2]. - Global asset allocation strategy I combines A-shares, bonds, gold, and US stocks, achieving an annualized return of 11.30% and a maximum drawdown of -7.97% [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Global asset allocation strategy II, which includes Japanese and Indian stocks, has an annualized return of 10.05% and a maximum drawdown of -9.97% over the same backtest period [4]. - As of June 2025, the performance metrics for the low-volatility strategy show a return of 0.74% for the month and 3.88% year-to-date [2]. - The global asset allocation strategy I recorded a June return of 1.55% and an 8.32% year-to-date return [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - For July 2025, the report suggests that A-shares may remain in a range-bound pattern due to moderate economic recovery and external disturbances, with a focus on structural opportunities driven by policy expectations [5]. - The report indicates that the domestic bond market continues to face pressure, recommending a focus on short-term products while considering mid to long-term bonds during adjustments [5]. - The outlook for US stocks suggests continued wide fluctuations due to uncertain economic policies, while Japanese stocks may present some allocation opportunities due to improving economic conditions [5].

近期中央持续强化"反内卷"政策导向，强调综合治理企业低价无序竞争和产能过剩问题。 国泰海通宏观、策略、建材 、煤炭、 轻工、电新、钢铁、 有色等 多 团队，从宏观到产业，多维度对"反内卷"进行解析。 一、研究报告 （点击标题查看报告） 二、电话会议回放 01、建材｜ 水泥玻璃反内卷：过去与未来 20250702 02、煤炭 ｜ 煤炭拐点清晰，反内卷下的供给变化和新能源新政的对火电影响详解 20250706 三、深度报告节选 【宏观】 "破局"通胀：反内卷与扩内需 【建材】 供给端预期又起，需求关注新方向 近期中央持续强化"反内卷"政策导向，强调综合治理企业低价无序竞争和产能过剩问题。政策的推进已带动焦煤、螺纹钢、玻璃等工业品价格率先反弹。不 过， 这种价格修复更多反映政策预期而非基本面实质改善，实际供需格局的优化、 PPI 表现可持续的改善还需等待实施细则的落地推进情况。 而且我们认为，要真正破解内卷困局，扩内需政策的协同发力不可或缺。 事实上，内卷现象的根源之一在于有效需求不足。当前经济运行还面临内外部共同 压力：关税局势和外需回暖的不确定性持续存在、以旧换新政策可能透支部分后续消费需求、地产销售投资端的调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the improvement in the competitive landscape of small home appliances and the leadership of major players in the white and black appliance sectors, highlighting growth opportunities and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Two main investment themes are suggested: 1) The improvement in the competitive landscape of small home appliances is expected to bring profit elasticity, particularly in the robotic vacuum cleaner sector, which has high growth potential and low penetration rates. The industry is anticipated to stabilize after a period of competition and the leading companies are expected to see profit improvements [3]. 2) The concentration of market share among leading companies and their high dividend yields provide a stable investment option. Major brands are leading the current price competition, resulting in increased industry concentration. The global production capacity of leading home appliance manufacturers is well-established, allowing them to adjust production plans based on tax rate changes [3]. Group 2: Domestic and Export Performance - Domestic sales have seen growth driven by government subsidies, with various categories achieving double-digit growth despite some limitations in Q2. The sales growth during the 618 shopping festival showed significant increases in categories such as cleaning appliances (+26%), water appliances (+22%), and kitchen small appliances (+22%) [4]. - Export performance in Q2 was negatively impacted by uncertainties in tariff policies, leading to a reduction in shipment volumes. However, as tariff policies become clearer, a gradual recovery in export performance is expected in subsequent quarters [4]. Group 3: Segment Growth Expectations - The expected growth ranking for different segments of the home appliance industry is as follows: white appliances > cleaning appliances > black appliances > small kitchen appliances > components > personal care appliances > large kitchen appliances [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the decline in electricity prices is narrowing while the decline in coal prices is expanding, leading to further growth in thermal power performance compared to Q1. However, the performance of clean energy may be under pressure due to overall resource scarcity. The report maintains a "buy" rating for the sector [1]. Group 1: Electricity and Coal Prices - In Q2 2025, the average electricity price in Guangdong was 0.374 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.046 yuan/kWh year-on-year, while the average coal price was 633 yuan/ton, down 214 yuan/ton year-on-year [2]. - The national electricity generation in April and May was 449.1 billion kWh and 461.5 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year change of -2.3% and +1.2%, respectively, with thermal power growth turning positive in May [2]. Group 2: Hydropower Performance - In Q2 2025, the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir were 1.2 and 1.0 million cubic meters per second, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% and 17.1%, respectively [3]. - The national electricity generation from hydropower in April and May was 78.6 billion kWh and 99.1 billion kWh, with year-on-year changes of -6.5% and -14.3% [3]. Group 3: New Energy and Wind Power - The new energy sector saw significant installations in April and May, with wind power and photovoltaic capacity additions of 32.12 million kW and 138.13 million kW, respectively, marking increases of 2.77 million kW and 10.72 million kW year-on-year [3]. - Wind power utilization hours in April and May were 374 hours, down 6 hours year-on-year, while photovoltaic utilization hours were 234 hours, down 37 hours year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Nuclear Power Developments - In April, the State Council approved 10 new nuclear power units, indicating a normalization of approvals [4]. - In Q2 2025, nuclear power generation in China was 50.4 billion kWh, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base from the previous year [4].

而且我们认为，要真正破解内卷困局，扩内需政策的协同发力不可或缺。 事实上，内卷现象的根源之一在 于有效需求不足。当前经济运行还面临内外部共同压力：关税局势和外需回暖的不确定性持续存在、以旧 换新政策可能透支部分后续消费需求、地产销售投资端的调整还在持续。如果同时进行单纯的去产能，反 而可能带来工业生产放缓、就业压力加剧等影响。由此，稳经济、化解内卷还需要内需政策的接续支持。 在具体操作上，仍需继续关注经济基本面走势，即若出口、制造业 PMI 、地产等数据明显走弱，货币财 政政策加码概率可能大大增加。 风险提示： 房地产走势不确定性仍存；政策力度不及预期。 报告导读： 今年以来，"以旧换新"补贴政策持续支撑耐用消费品价格，带动核心 CPI 同 比小幅修复，而其中服务价格方面仍有待提振，指向了居民部门资产负债表的修复进展有 限，需要后续稳增长政策接续。 6 月 CPI 同比转正。 食品价格拖累减弱；国际油价上涨输入带动能源价格；核心 CPI 环比持平，核心消 费品 CPI 环比表现显著好于 2023 、 2024 年，" 618 "提前促销影响过去后，"以旧换新"政策支持的相 关品类价格仍相对偏强，而服务相关价格 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market remains weak, impacting construction demand, but there is an expectation of supply tightening in cyclical industries due to government policies against low-price competition, leading to a marginal improvement in prices for steel and coal [1][3] - Summer consumption has shown signs of improvement, with notable increases in tourism, movie attendance, and passenger transport, while pork prices have risen significantly, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [1][2] - Manufacturing activity is showing mixed results, with a decline in automotive production due to rising dealer inventory pressures, while chemical and asphalt production remains resilient, reflecting some stability in construction demand [1][3] Group 2 - Real estate sales continue to decline, with a 24.6% year-on-year drop in transaction volume across 30 major cities, while second-hand housing transactions in key cities also fell by 11.8% [2] - The automotive market is experiencing a slight increase in sales, driven by summer self-driving demand, although dealer inventory pressures are rising, as indicated by a 3.9% increase in the inventory warning index [2] - Service consumption is on the rise, with a 2.7% increase in tourism prices in Hainan and a 3.1% year-on-year increase in movie box office revenue, suggesting a potential rebound in consumer sentiment [2] Group 3 - The cyclical industry is experiencing heightened expectations for supply tightening, with a slight increase in rebar demand and a rebound in steel prices, while cement prices continue to decline [3] - Manufacturing activity is showing significant divergence, with automotive production rates declining, while chemical production rates are increasing, indicating varying levels of demand across sectors [3] - Resource prices are rising due to increased electricity consumption and tightening supply expectations, with coal prices continuing to rise amid changing monetary policy expectations [3] Group 4 - Passenger transport demand has increased, with metro ridership up by 1.1% week-on-week and domestic flight operations increasing by 6.1% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in travel activity [4] - However, export activities are facing challenges, with a decline in freight volumes and shipping prices, likely influenced by fluctuating international tariff policies [4] - Overall logistics performance shows a mixed picture, with a decrease in highway and rail freight volumes, while express delivery volumes remain strong year-on-year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is currently facing intense competition and significant profit pressure, with historical trends indicating that environmental policies have previously driven the exit of outdated capacity, and new national standards are expected to catalyze a new round of supply-side clearing in the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The paper industry is experiencing an oversupply situation, with paper prices and profitability at low levels. The operating rates and inventory levels are relatively stable in the short term, but the oversupply has intensified since 2020, leading companies to adopt aggressive pricing strategies to gain market share [1][2] - Capacity growth in the industry has accelerated, exacerbating the oversupply situation. From 2010 to 2020, domestic capacity growth outpaced demand growth, with a notable increase in capacity since 2020 [1][2] Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Competition - Taking double glue paper as an example, from 2020 to 2025, the industry is expected to add a cumulative capacity of 6.41 million tons, with leading companies like Sun Paper (1 million tons) and Nine Dragons Paper (1.85 million tons) significantly increasing production. This trend is driven by the saturation of various paper segments, prompting leading companies to diversify their product offerings [2] - The new capacity is often accompanied by self-sufficient pulp lines, which allows new entrants to adopt low-price competition strategies, putting further pressure on paper prices. Since the second half of 2023, the profitability of paper machines has been operating below the breakeven line [2] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, the high prosperity of the paper industry from 2015 to 2018 was primarily driven by supply-side factors, particularly the implementation of environmental policies that restricted both existing and new capacity, leading to significant increases in paper prices and profitability [3] - Looking ahead, the current cycle has seen rapid expansion of capacity and companies, with record losses and low profits. The supply side faces challenges such as small-scale production lines and low entry barriers in certain paper types, making it difficult for leading companies to eliminate smaller competitors. Additionally, new national standards are expected to enhance energy consumption limits, potentially catalyzing a new round of supply-side clearing [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that foreign capital experienced accelerated outflows from Hong Kong stocks in April and May, but began to return in June, primarily flowing into the technology sector [1] - In Q2, Hong Kong stocks saw an overall outflow of approximately 150 billion HKD, with long-term stable foreign capital accounting for a significant portion of this outflow, totaling around 120 billion HKD, while short-term flexible foreign capital contributed to an outflow of about 30 billion HKD [1] - The article highlights that in Q2, foreign capital mainly flowed into software services and technology hardware sectors in Hong Kong, while it saw outflows from banks, retail, and pharmaceutical sectors [1] Group 2 - For A-shares, the data from the Northbound trading indicates an overall inflow of 58.5 billion CNY in Q2, with a net inflow of approximately 11.4 billion CNY after excluding Chinese custodial funds [1] - Long-term stable foreign capital in A-shares saw an inflow of 51 billion CNY, while short-term flexible foreign capital experienced an outflow of 39.5 billion CNY [1] - The article notes that foreign capital in A-shares primarily increased its allocation to dividend stocks, new energy, and non-bank sectors, while reducing allocations in home appliances, food and beverage, and machinery sectors [1]