更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 重要提醒 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of adhering to the guidelines set forth by the Securities and Futures Investor Suitability Management Measures, particularly for clients of Guotai Junan Securities [2] - It highlights that the content is exclusively for signed clients of Guotai Junan Securities research services, ensuring quality and risk control [2] - The article expresses gratitude for the understanding and cooperation of readers who may not be signed clients, indicating a focus on maintaining service quality [2] Group 2 - The document includes a legal disclaimer, reinforcing the need for compliance with regulations regarding the dissemination of investment-related information [3]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of adhering to the guidelines set forth by the Securities and Futures Investor Suitability Management Measures, particularly for clients of Guotai Junan Securities [2] - It highlights that the content is exclusively for signed clients of Guotai Junan Securities research services, ensuring quality and risk control [2] - The article expresses gratitude for the understanding and cooperation of readers who may not be signed clients, indicating a focus on maintaining service quality [2] Group 2 - The document includes a legal disclaimer, reinforcing the need for compliance with regulations and the limitations of the information provided [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in Japan's ultra-long bond yields, attributed to increased market concerns over supply shocks and fiscal sustainability due to Japan's expansionary fiscal policies, weak domestic demand for ultra-long bonds, and a lackluster auction of 20-year government bonds [1][2] - The article notes that the current scale of yen carry trades is relatively small, suggesting that the spillover effects on global liquidity are manageable [1] - Future attention should be directed towards upcoming Japanese government bond auctions, potential dovish signals from the Bank of Japan to alleviate market panic, and the results of the July Japanese House of Councillors election [1] Group 2 - In the U.S. economy, there has been a rebound in the year-on-year growth rate of new and existing home sales as of April, and both the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations in May [2] - The Eurozone's PMI fell below the threshold due to weakening service sector sentiment in May, while the consumer confidence index for the Eurozone's 27 countries saw a slight recovery but remains at a relatively low level [2] - Short-term monetary policy outlooks indicate that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious about rate cuts, the European Central Bank may cut rates in June, and the Bank of Japan officials are cautious about rate hikes amid high economic uncertainty [2]

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 我们认为，转债市场未来或因供需错配而迎来牛市。 需求方面，低利率环境下资金将持续寻求合意标的， 同时当前的转债双低策略能够稳定跑赢基金业绩基准中常用的中证转债指数，或将吸引新规后的公募资 金；供给方面，参考日本 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月24日发布的 转债或迎供需错配牛 郑子勋 ，资格证书编号 ： S0880525040047 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 90 年代信用债放量、转债缩量的历史经验，当前我国大力提振科创债发行，信用债发行放量，对转债可 能形成一定挤出效应。 而从 24 年底至今，转债市场风险偏好持续上行。 牛市初期，低风险偏好先上行，然后过渡到高风险偏好 （类似股市风格轮动的先价值，后成长）。牛市如果 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a period of tariff easing, leading to a rebound in exports while domestic demand shows increasing divergence [1] Group 2 - High-frequency data indicates a mixed performance in consumption, with strong automobile sales [1] - Investment in infrastructure is accelerating, while real estate sales show marginal improvement amidst a sluggish land market [1] - Exports are rebounding rapidly, supported by resilient overseas demand, with port data and export freight rates rising quickly due to concentrated shipments from previously accumulated inventories [1] Group 3 - Production is exhibiting a trend of industry divergence, with a rebound in the photovoltaic production index, while the operating rates in sectors like steel and petrochemicals are declining [1] - Coal inventories are decreasing from high levels, and there is an accelerated reduction in steel inventories [1] Group 4 - Price performance is generally subdued, with most high-frequency indicators related to CPI and PPI showing a downward trend [1] - In terms of liquidity, the US dollar index has significantly declined, while the Chinese yuan continues to appreciate [1]

Macro - Export has rebounded while domestic demand shows divergence, with strong automobile sales and accelerated infrastructure investment, but real estate sales are marginally improving amidst a sluggish land market [1] - High-frequency data indicates a rapid rebound in imports and exports, supported by resilient overseas demand and a recovery in port data and export freight rates due to concentrated shipments from previously accumulated inventories [1] - Production is exhibiting industry-specific trends, with a rebound in the photovoltaic production index, while the operating rates in sectors like steel and petrochemicals are declining [1] - Coal inventories are decreasing from high levels, and steel inventories are being reduced at an accelerated pace [1] - Price performance is generally moderate, with most high-frequency indicators for CPI and PPI trending downwards [1] - The liquidity environment is characterized by a significant drop in the US dollar index and a continuous appreciation of the Chinese yuan [1] Overseas Strategy - The article reviews the asset price movements during four periods of trade friction easing between the US and China from 2018 to 2019, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations [3][4] - Each easing period had varying durations and was often interrupted by unilateral actions from the US, indicating the unpredictable nature of trade negotiations [3] - The first easing period in May 2018 lasted only 10 days, with US stock performance showing volatility, while Chinese A-shares faced downward pressure due to dual challenges from tariffs and financial deleveraging [4] - The December 2018 easing lasted over four months, during which A-shares and Hong Kong stocks briefly rebounded before declining again, while US stocks benefited from rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4] - The June 2019 easing lasted about one month, with A-shares initially rising but later experiencing declines due to renewed trade tensions [4] - The October 2019 easing saw a significant initial rise in both US and Chinese stock markets, but subsequent performance diverged [4] Industry - The article discusses the significance of tritium as a fuel for nuclear fusion, highlighting recent policy shifts in the US and Germany towards advanced nuclear technologies [8] - Tritium is described as a scarce resource necessary for nuclear fusion, contrasting with uranium, which is mined [8] - The fusion reaction involves deuterium and tritium, releasing energy and neutrons, with deuterium being abundant and sourced from seawater, while tritium must be artificially produced [8] - The process of generating tritium involves neutron multiplication using beryllium spheres and subsequent reactions with lithium, emphasizing the importance of tritium factories for recovery and purification [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and long-term nature of the China-U.S. trade friction from 2018 to 2019, highlighting its significant impact on asset prices and the sensitivity of markets to trade-related signals [1][3]. Summary by Sections Trade Friction Overview - The China-U.S. trade friction lasted nearly two years, experiencing four distinct periods of easing, each with varying durations and outcomes [1][2]. Asset Price Behavior - Three key patterns in asset price movements during the trade friction are identified: 1. Long-term asset price trends are primarily driven by fundamentals, with the Chinese stock market closely linked to domestic economic conditions [1][3]. 2. Markets react more sensitively to negative signals from trade negotiations, while responses to easing signals are relatively muted [1][3]. 3. Different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to trade friction, with stocks and currencies being more responsive compared to the bond market, which is influenced more by domestic policies and fundamentals [1][3]. Specific Easing Periods - **May 2018**: A joint statement was released, but the easing lasted only 10 days. U.S. stocks showed volatility, while Chinese stocks faced downward pressure due to tariffs and financial deleveraging [2]. - **December 2018**: Following a leaders' meeting, tariffs were not escalated, leading to a four-month easing period. A-shares and H-shares initially rebounded but later fell again until a central bank rate cut in January 2019 [2]. - **June 2019**: A trade agreement was reached, resulting in a one-month easing period. However, subsequent trade tensions led to declines in both U.S. and Chinese stock markets [2]. - **October 2019**: A phase one trade agreement was achieved, causing initial stock market gains, but the bond market reacted less significantly [2].

报告导读： 海外头部人形机器人厂家加速产品迭代，国内加速布局人形机器人下游应用 落地。 投资建议： 重点关注机器人整机厂商及机器人核心零部件供应商。 特斯拉展示 Optimus 做家务等操作能力， Figure 机器人已在宝马 X3 产线实现连续 20 小时轮班。 特 斯拉分享 Optimus 的操作能力展示视频，其在家庭环境中展现了扔垃圾、使用扫帚和吸尘器、撕纸巾、 搅拌食物、开橱柜、关窗帘等多项家务能力。上述能力通过输入人类执行类似任务的第一人称视频数据借 助单一神经网络实现。未来， Optimus 计划扩展至第三人称视频的转移学习，并通过在真实或合成世界 中进行自我强化学习提升机器人可靠性。上述学习或为当前机器人训练数据匮乏提供新思路，加速机器人 的迭代进化。 Figure 机器人在宝马 X3 生产线完成连续 20 小时轮班作业，执行搬运、放置钣金任务， 成为全球首个在汽车产线实行人形机器人长时轮班制的案例。未来通过持续迭代，或加速机器人在工业场 景落地。 风险提示： 国产设备替代不及预期、人形机器人产业化不及预期、产业政策不及预期。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月25日发布的 特斯拉展示手部灵巧操 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sales momentum is declining, while passenger car sales remain resilient; construction demand still needs improvement, and concerns over external demand are marginally easing, with an increase in China's export orders to the U.S. and a rebound in port cargo throughput and freight rates [1]. Group 1: Real Estate and Consumer Sales - Real estate sales continue to be weak, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities; first-tier cities saw a 12.4% increase, while second-tier cities experienced a 30.2% decrease, and third-tier cities had a 7.0% increase [2]. - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 30% year-on-year from May 6 to May 11, driven by national subsidy policies and promotional events [2]. - The demand for durable consumer goods, particularly automobiles, remains strong, while the film box office revenue has significantly declined both year-on-year and month-on-month [1][2]. Group 2: Construction and Manufacturing - The construction demand remains weak, influenced by local rainfall, with resource prices showing divergence; rebar and hot-rolled coil prices increased by 1.6% and 2.5% week-on-week, respectively [3]. - Manufacturing activity has seen a rebound, with significant increases in operating rates for the automotive sector and a 5.6% week-on-week increase in the operating rate for petroleum asphalt facilities [3]. - The prices of copper and aluminum increased by 0.9% and 2.8% week-on-week, respectively, supported by improved demand expectations due to the easing of U.S.-China tariff tensions [3]. Group 3: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to decline, with metro passenger volume in major cities showing a 4.6% increase year-on-year but a 0.3% decrease month-on-month [4]. - The number of domestic flights decreased by 2.3% week-on-week but increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while international flights saw a 4.0% decrease week-on-week but a 17.1% increase year-on-year, recovering to 81.8% of the levels seen in 2019 [4]. - The SCFI/BDI indices increased by 10.0% and 6.9% week-on-week, respectively, indicating a recovery in port cargo throughput and container volume [4].