24Q4 业绩超预期，25 年国补红利持续释 放 ——京东集团 24Q4 点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们调整盈利预测，预测 2024-2026 年收入为 11588/12586/13322 亿元（原 2024- 2026 年预测为 11385/12098/12878 亿元，因以旧换新政策效果超预期上调收 入），经调整归母净利润为 436/483/510 亿元（原 2024-2026 年预测为 421/472/507 亿元，因带电类等高毛利商品占比增加上调利润率）。参考可比公 司，给予京东零售业务 2025 年 12xPE，分部估值计算公司市值 6480 亿元，对应每 股股价 220.48 港元（人民币兑港币汇率 1.083），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：政策效果不及预期，行业竞争加剧，行业监管趋严。 京东集团-SW 公司研究 | 季报点评 | | 09618.HK | | --- | --- | | | 买入（维持） | | 股价（2025年03月12日） | 156.7 港元 | | 目标价格 | 220.5 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 192.3/94.65 港元 | | 总 ...

造纸轻工行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 阔叶浆供需博弈加剧，二季度浆厂仍有一 定挺价能力 ——纸浆专题报告（一） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 海外核心浆厂在 2025 年一季度连续提涨阔叶浆报价，成本支撑叠加招标旺季即将来 临，文化纸有望延续价格修复态势，推荐林浆纸一体化行业龙头太阳纸业(002078， 买入)。同时回溯历史来看，特种纸企业在浆价上行之后的半年内通常会呈现出盈利 扩张，推荐特种纸领军企业仙鹤股份(603733，买入)，中高端装饰原纸龙头华旺科 技(605377，买入)以及食品包装纸细分龙头五洲特纸(605007，增持)。 风险提示 ⚫ 终端需求不及预期的风险；国际贸易摩擦加剧的风险；假设条件变化影响测算结果 的风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 造纸轻工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*6069 | | --- | --- | | | lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW124 | | 谢雨辰 | xieyuchen@orien ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The supply landscape for iron ore is expected to undergo significant changes, with a notable increase in production capacity from new projects, particularly the Simandou project, which could disrupt the current oligopolistic market structure [8][43]. - The steel industry's profitability is anticipated to recover as iron ore prices are projected to decline due to oversupply conditions from 2025 to 2027 [8][43]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Introduction to Iron Ore - Iron ore is a primary raw material for steel production, and its supply and demand significantly impact the operational performance and profit margins of steel companies [14]. Section 2: Supply Dynamics - The global iron ore market is currently dominated by four major mining companies, which account for over 44% of total production [50]. - The Simandou iron ore project, with a total resource of over 4.41 billion tons and an average grade exceeding 65%, is expected to become a major player in the market [54]. Section 3: Demand Trends - The domestic steel industry is entering a new phase, with expectations of continued decline in iron ore demand, while global demand is projected to grow only slightly [3][8]. Section 4: Supply-Demand Balance - The report forecasts a significant oversupply of iron ore from 2025 to 2027, with surplus ratios expected to reach 3.9%, 7.0%, and 8.7% respectively [8][43]. Section 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on midstream steel companies, particularly those engaged in steel production, with specific recommendations for companies like Shandong Steel and South Steel, which are expected to benefit from a manufacturing sector recovery [3].

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 铁矿石：供给格局或迎巨变，钢铁盈利有 望回流 ——"中国定价"系列报告之一 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 建议关注钢铁行业中游以生产钢材作为主营业务的企业，普钢方面，建议关注三钢闽光 (002110，未评级)、新钢股份(600782，未评级)、宝钢股份(600019，未评级)、山东钢 铁(600022，买入)等，同时建议关注盈利较为稳健、分红水平较高、同时受益于制造业 复苏的南钢股份(600282，买入)、中信特钢(000708，买入)等。 风险提示 铁矿石项目投产进度不达预期的风险、宏观经济波动风险、下游需求不达预期的风险、 假设条件变化影响测算结果风险 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 12 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 德国财政刺激大超预期，关注铜铝和小金 | 2025-03-09 | | --- | --- | | 属板块投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the real estate sector [6][9]. Core Viewpoints - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market and promote recovery through various policies, including monetary easing and targeted measures to boost housing demand [3][4][14]. - The report highlights the importance of balancing supply and demand, with a focus on revitalizing existing land and properties while ensuring high-quality housing standards [4][46]. - The report emphasizes the need for effective risk management in the real estate sector to prevent debt defaults among developers [5][46]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - Implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts of 40-50 basis points, expected to lower housing costs [3][44]. - Continued efforts to stabilize the real estate market through city-specific policy adjustments and the promotion of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations [3][44]. Supply Side - Activation of existing land and commercial properties, with greater autonomy for local governments in acquisition and pricing [4][44]. - Allocation of 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds for local governments, aimed at investment in construction and land acquisition [4][44]. - Introduction of high-quality housing standards to meet public demand, with a focus on safety, comfort, and sustainability [4][46]. Risk Management - Emphasis on the role of real estate financing coordination mechanisms to ensure housing delivery and mitigate developer debt risks [5][46]. - The report sets a target of delivering 3.38 million housing units in 2024, with many provinces achieving over 90% delivery progress [5][46]. Market Performance - The real estate sector index underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a relative return of -2.5% [9][12]. - New home sales in 44 major cities decreased by 33.5% compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in market activity [16][21]. Company Announcements - Key companies such as Lujiazui and China Merchants Shekou have released their annual performance reports, indicating varied financial results [40][41]. - Poly Developments reported a 17.39% decrease in signed area for February 2025, while the signed amount increased by 2.38% [42][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the real estate sector [9] Core Viewpoints - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market and promote recovery through various policies, including monetary easing and targeted measures to boost housing demand [3][4] - The report highlights the importance of balancing supply and demand, with a focus on revitalizing existing land and properties while ensuring high-quality housing standards [4][46] - The report emphasizes the need for effective risk management in the real estate sector to prevent debt defaults among developers [5][46] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate sector index underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, with a relative return of -2.5% [12] - New home sales in 44 major cities decreased by 33.5% compared to the previous week, while second-hand home sales fell by 6.0% [16] Policy Insights - The government work report emphasizes stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, promoting new urbanization, and extending land contracts [14][16] - Local policies include adjustments to housing fund contribution bases and tax rates for affordable housing [16] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand-side measures include potential interest rate cuts of 40-50 basis points, aimed at reducing home purchase costs [3][44] - Supply-side initiatives focus on activating existing land and properties, with local governments given more autonomy in land acquisition and usage [4][44] Risk Management - The report outlines the importance of a financing coordination mechanism to ensure housing delivery and mitigate developer debt risks, with a target of delivering 3.38 million homes in 2024 [5][46] Company Announcements - Key companies such as Lujiazui and China Merchants Shekou have released their annual performance reports, indicating varied financial outcomes [40][41] - Poly Developments reported a decrease in signed area but an increase in sales revenue for February 2025 [42]

Inflation Data Summary - February 2025 CPI decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, down from 0.5% in January, and fell by 0.2% month-on-month, compared to a 0.7% increase in January[1] - February 2025 PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly improved from a 2.3% decline in January, and fell by 0.1% month-on-month, compared to a 0.2% decrease in January[1] Key Contributors to CPI Changes - Food items accounted for over 80% of the total CPI decline, with February food CPI down 3.3% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month[4] - Specific food items saw significant declines: pork (-9.7%), eggs (-3.4%), fresh vegetables (-15%), and fresh fruits (-2.4%) year-on-year[4] - The favorable weather conditions in February contributed to the larger decline in fresh vegetable prices, contrasting with adverse weather in the previous year[4] Core CPI and Service Sector Impact - Non-food CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in February, down from 0.5% and 0.6% respectively in January[4] - Service CPI fell by 0.4% year-on-year, significantly impacted by a 9.6% decline in tourism CPI due to the timing of the Spring Festival[4] PPI Trends - PPI decline narrowed, with upstream raw materials PPI down 6.3% and 1.5% for mining and raw materials respectively[4] - Energy sector PPI continued to decline, with oil and gas extraction down 3.3% year-on-year, reflecting international energy price fluctuations[4] - Midstream equipment manufacturing PPI showed mixed results, with railway and aerospace manufacturing PPI up 0.4% while general equipment manufacturing down 1.3%[4] Overall Economic Outlook - The report indicates that structural changes in the economy are positive but require further policy support to solidify these trends[1] - The focus for 2025 remains on addressing consumption shortfalls, as indicated by the fluctuations in CPI and PPI data[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [2]. Core Insights - The rapid development of the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) is driving significant growth in power demand, with AI-related data centers expected to become a major growth segment in the industry [9]. - The transition from traditional computing to intelligent computing is leading to increased power consumption, with predictions indicating that AI industry power demand could be ten times higher by 2026 compared to 2023 [14]. - Current mainstream power supply solutions include UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply), HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current), Panama power systems, and SST (Solid State Transformer), each with distinct advantages and challenges [6][24]. Summary by Sections AIDC Development - AIDC is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the increasing demand for AI computing power [9]. - The shift from general computing to intelligent computing is significantly increasing power requirements, with single cabinet power consumption expected to rise from 4-6 kW to 20-50 kW, potentially exceeding 100 kW in the future [18]. Power Supply Solutions - UPS systems are currently the mainstream technology, providing stable and continuous power to data centers, with a market share of approximately 54% in Jiangsu Province [23]. - HVDC technology is gaining traction due to its efficiency and suitability for high power density applications, with its market penetration expected to increase [31]. - The Panama power system simplifies the power supply chain, enhancing overall energy efficiency, and has been adopted by major players like Alibaba [44][45]. - SST technology, while still in early stages, shows promise for high efficiency and low cost, with potential applications in data centers and renewable energy integration [50][59]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch in the server power supply chain include Megmeet, Zhongheng Electric, Hezhong Electric, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the rising AIDC investment [6]. - For power electronics, companies like Jiewa Technology and Jingfeng Mingyuan are recommended due to anticipated demand growth [6]. - In the context of AIDC power support, companies such as Jinpan Technology and Mingyang Electric are highlighted for their importance in the power distribution needs of data centers [6]. - Liquid cooling solutions are also recommended for their ability to reduce energy consumption and operational costs in data centers [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 17.55 HKD [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record monthly sales of 266,700 vehicles in January, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.9% and a month-on-month increase of 27.0%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 121,100 units, up 83.9% year-on-year [9]. - The company continues to deepen its global strategic layout, with significant growth in its self-owned brands. The sales of the Geely brand reached 224,700 units in January, a year-on-year increase of 30.1% [9]. - The company plans to expand its overseas sales network, aiming for over 300 sales and service outlets by 2025, with a target overseas sales growth rate of 15.6% [9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.43, 1.08, and 1.29 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The company maintains a comparable company PE average valuation of 15 times, leading to a target price of 16.20 CNY [4]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 224.63 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 25.4%. The revenue is expected to reach 316.01 billion CNY by 2026 [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 14.44 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 172.1% [6][10]. Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a revenue of 147.97 billion CNY in 2022, with a gross profit margin of 14.1% and a net profit margin of 3.6% [6][10]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 10.88 billion CNY, with a net profit margin of 4.0% [6][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 6.6% in 2023 to 11.2% by 2026 [6][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is crucial, and there is a strong determination to meet the established goals despite challenges. The military industry is expected to accelerate its tasks, marking the beginning of a new upturn cycle [3][7] - The international instability presents new opportunities for China's military trade, driven by technological advancements and the expansion of new domains [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of completing the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the urgency to address challenges, highlighting the need for high-quality development and effective execution of the plan [7] Investment Recommendations and Targets - The military industry is anticipated to perform well, with specific stocks recommended for investment, including: - Ammunition and Information Technology: Suggestions include Aerospace Electric (002025, Buy), Feilihua (300395, Buy), and others [7] - New Quality Productivity: Focus on AI-related companies and low-altitude economy sectors [7] - Aviation Equipment and Supporting Industries: Recommendations include major manufacturers and supporting companies [7]