重大资产购买已实施完成，期待协同效应 逐步释放 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 适当调整毛利率与费用率假设，我们预测 2024-2026 年公司归母净利润分别为 1.89/2.06/2.18 亿元（此前预测 2024-2025 年归母净利润 2.38/2.76 亿元），对应 EPS 为 0.45/0.49/0.52 元。我们采取 DCF 绝对估值法对公司进行估值，给予公司 DCF 目标估值 9.80 元，维持"增持"评级 风险提示 ⚫ 收入结构对大客户依赖度较高；无菌纸基包装行业竞争加剧；巴氏奶消费占比提升 带来对上游包装需求的结构性变动；原材料价格上涨。 新巨丰 301296.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月07日） | 8.21 元 | | 目标价格 | 9.80 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 12/6.51 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 42,000/27,168 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 3,448 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 造纸轻工 | | 报告发布日期 | 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 9.80 CNY, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of 8.21 CNY [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company has completed a significant asset acquisition, which is expected to gradually release synergies and enhance its competitive position in the global liquid milk industry [8]. - The liquid milk industry is experiencing continuous expansion, with a stable cost environment for raw materials, suggesting a robust growth outlook for the company [8]. - Adjustments to gross margin and expense assumptions lead to revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected profits of 189 million CNY, 206 million CNY, and 218 million CNY respectively [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,737 million CNY in 2023 to 2,079 million CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.9% [6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.7% in 2023 to 24.6% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6]. - The net profit margin is forecasted to stabilize around 10.5% from 2024 onwards, reflecting consistent profitability [6]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is positioned as the largest domestic manufacturer of aseptic paper-based packaging, poised to benefit from the trend of domestic substitution in the industry [9]. - The DCF valuation method applied suggests a target price of 9.80 CNY, indicating a favorable investment opportunity based on projected cash flows [10].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 4 月或是供给压力缓和期 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | 继续做波段，把握利率下行机会：2025 年 3 月小品种月报 2025-04-04 二季度债市或可乐观一点：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-31 央行多投放流动性了吗？：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-25 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 徐沛翔 xup ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 关税风暴，关注国内政策对冲 ——策略周报 0407 研究结论 风险提示 17 张书铭 021-63325888*5152 zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 张志鹏 zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 段怡芊 duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 薛俊 021-63325888*6005 xuejun@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | 从政策博弈到基本面验证：——策略周报 | 2025-03-30 | | --- | --- | | 0331 | | | 情绪退潮、A 股高位回落：——策略周报 | 2025-03-24 | | 0324 | | | A 股延续强势，建议关注科技产业趋势的 | 2025-03-16 | | 反弹行情：——策略周报 0316 | | | 港股表现强势，继续关注科技股中长期行 | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and adjusts the target price to HKD 1.73 [4][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of approximately CNY 6.97 billion for 2024, which is essentially flat year-on-year; the net loss attributable to the parent company is about CNY 451 million, an increase in loss of 3.7% year-on-year; the core net profit attributable to the parent company is approximately CNY 800 million, also flat year-on-year [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was CNY 7.126 billion, decreasing to CNY 7.010 billion in 2023, and projected to be CNY 6.970 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.6% [6] - The operating profit showed a loss of CNY 730 million in 2022, improving to a loss of CNY 412 million in 2023, but projected to worsen again to a loss of CNY 604 million in 2024 [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of CNY 482 million in 2022, a loss of CNY 435 million in 2023, and is projected to be a loss of CNY 451 million in 2024 [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 21.9% in 2024, down from 23.8% in 2023 [6] Business Segment Performance - The property management business revenue reached CNY 6.38 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, accounting for 91.5% of total revenue; community service revenue was CNY 440 million, down 6.5% year-on-year; non-owner value-added services continued to shrink, with revenue decreasing by 61.0% to CNY 147 million [11] - The company’s managed area remained stable at 291 million square meters by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7% [11] - The company focused on core cities, with the signing amount in core cities accounting for approximately 98% of total contracts in 2024 [11] Adjustments and Provisions - The company made a provision for bad debts of CNY 1.087 billion in 2024, with a significant portion (CNY 763 million) related to receivables from related parties, which severely impacted profits [11] - After excluding the effects of provisions and amortization, the core net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was CNY 800 million, remaining flat year-on-year [11]

特宝生物 688278.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月03日） | 78.35 元 | | 目标价格 | 87.04 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 88.38/46.3 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 40,680/40,680 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 31,873 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 医药生物 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -2.82 | -2.82 | 6.58 | 23.93 | | 相对表现% | -1.02 | -2.13 | 4.29 | 15.7 | | 沪深 300% | -1.8 | -0.69 | 2.29 | 8.23 | | 伍云飞 | wuyunfei1@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524020001 ...

固定收益 | 专题报告 2025Q1 信用债市场回顾与展望 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；数据统计可能存在遗误。 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 系人 === | | --- | 徐沛翔 xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn 2 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 一季度信用债市场回顾：（1）发行融资：虽受债市波动影响，取消或推迟发行规模 环比提升，但最终总发行量环比基本持平，叠加到期量环比小幅下降，全季净融资 额环比增加 17%。城投债方面，一季度城投债累计发行 1.43 万亿元，环比下降 2%，与此同时到期量环比下降 3%至 1.34 万亿元，最终实现累计净融入 925 亿元， 再次创下同期净融资额新低。产业债方面，一季度产业债合计发行 1.77 万亿元，同 比下降 6%、环比增长 1 ...

Group 1: Economic Environment and Policy Changes - The March PMI showed a steady upward trend, alleviating previous concerns about small businesses and construction resumption post-holiday[4] - The focus of consumption policies has shifted towards pre-consumption factors such as income, credit, and social security, marking a new phase in consumption policy[6] - The introduction of birth support policies is part of a broader "talent competition," with various measures to attract graduates and support families[7] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Trends - In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year, up from 3.7% at the end of last year[18] - Real estate investment saw a narrowing of negative growth to -9.8%, improving from -10.6% previously[18] - The sales of commercial housing in Hubei Tianmen increased by 6.1% year-on-year, indicating a potential link to birth policies that encourage home purchases[9] Group 3: Credit and Financing Developments - Personal consumption loan growth has slowed significantly, dropping to 1.4% in January-February from over 15% in 2018-2019[13] - New policies aim to support personal credit recovery, allowing banks to extend loan repayment terms for borrowers facing difficulties[11] - The issuance of local government bonds increased significantly, with a total of 16,967 billion yuan in new government bonds issued in February, up 10,956 billion yuan year-on-year[24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][18]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with significant long-term growth potential driven by its AI tool, KuaLing [1][5]. - The report highlights a stable user base with daily active users (DAU) exceeding 400 million, and a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [5]. - Advertising revenue grew by 13.3% year-on-year, reaching 20.6 billion CNY, although slightly below market expectations [5]. - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased by 14.4% year-on-year to 462.1 billion CNY, with a notable rise in active buyers [5]. - Live streaming revenue showed a smaller decline than expected, down 2.0% year-on-year, indicating improved content quality and user engagement [5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 4.7 billion CNY, aligning with expectations, and the company anticipates a net profit of 43 billion CNY in Q1 2025 [5][7]. Summary by Sections User Metrics - DAU remained above 400 million, with MAU increasing by 5.0% to 736 million [5]. - Average daily usage time per user rose by 0.9% to 125.6 minutes [5]. Advertising Performance - Q4 2024 advertising revenue reached 20.6 billion CNY, accounting for 58.3% of total revenue [5]. - The external circulation advertising segment grew significantly, with short dramas and other content types driving growth [5]. E-commerce Insights - E-commerce GMV for Q4 2024 was 462.1 billion CNY, with a 14.4% year-on-year increase [5]. - The number of active buyers rose by 10% year-on-year, reaching 143 million [5]. Live Streaming Developments - Live streaming revenue decreased by 2.0% year-on-year to 9.8 billion CNY, better than market expectations [5]. - The number of signed-up agencies and hosts increased significantly, indicating a healthier ecosystem [5]. Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 4.7 billion CNY, with a net profit margin of 13.3% [5][7]. - The company expects an adjusted net profit of 194 billion CNY for the full year of 2025 [7]. KuaLing AI Tool - KuaLing's commercial potential is viewed positively, with expectations for significant revenue growth in the medium to long term [6][8]. - The tool has already generated over 100 million CNY in revenue since its monetization began [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of recent tariff actions and a significant drop in international oil prices due to weak supply and demand expectations. It emphasizes a focus on leading companies with strong fundamentals that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. Additionally, it recommends paying attention to domestic market opportunities, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming season, and the potential for domestic substitution in new materials due to tariff pressures [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report notes that as of April 4, Brent oil prices fell by 10.9% to $65.58 per barrel, influenced by tariff actions and OPEC+ production plans exceeding expectations, leading to a significant decline in oil supply forecasts [13] - It suggests focusing on leading companies with strong alpha, recommending investments in companies like Wanhua Chemical, Huamao Technology, Runfeng Co., Guoguang Co., and Hualu Hengsheng, all of which are expected to benefit from recent market dynamics [12][14] 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of March 28, U.S. crude oil commercial inventories stood at 439.8 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 6.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 300,000 barrels [13] - The report monitors 188 chemical products, noting that the top three price increases were for acrylic acid (up 8.8%), synthetic ammonia (up 5.0%), and DMF (up 4.7%). The largest decreases were for tetrachlorethylene (down 7.1%), tryptophan (down 5.8%), and succinic anhydride (down 5.8%) [14][15] 3. Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI showing recent profit improvement with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [12] - Huamao Technology: A leader in specialty polyether, recovering from previous macro demand pressures [12] - Runfeng Co.: A rare stock with global formulation registration and sales channels [12] - Guoguang Co.: A leader in differentiated formulations in the plant growth regulator sector [12] - Hualu Hengsheng: Core product prices recovering alongside falling coal prices, leading to improved margins [12]