Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][18]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with significant long-term growth potential driven by its AI capabilities [1][5]. - Daily Active Users (DAU) remained above 400 million, with a year-over-year increase of 4.8%, while Monthly Active Users (MAU) grew by 5.0% to 736 million [5]. - Advertising revenue in Q4 2024 increased by 13.3% year-over-year to 20.6 billion CNY, slightly below market expectations [5]. - E-commerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) rose by 14.4% year-over-year to 462.1 billion CNY, with a notable increase in active buyers [5]. - Live streaming revenue decreased by 2.0% year-over-year to 9.8 billion CNY, but the decline was less than expected due to improved content quality [5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 reached 4.7 billion CNY, aligning with expectations, and the company anticipates a full-year adjusted net profit of 19.4 billion CNY for 2025 [5][7]. Summary by Sections User Engagement - DAU maintained over 400 million, with MAU reaching 736 million, indicating strong user retention and engagement [5]. - Average daily usage time per user increased by 0.9% year-over-year to 125.6 minutes [5]. Advertising Performance - Q4 2024 advertising revenue was 20.6 billion CNY, accounting for 58.3% of total revenue, with external circulation growth in the high teens [5]. - The company expects a slowdown in advertising revenue growth in Q1 2025, projecting a year-over-year increase of 7.0% [5]. E-commerce Growth - E-commerce GMV reached 462.1 billion CNY, with a 14.4% year-over-year increase, and the number of active buyers grew by 10% [5]. - The proportion of general merchandise in e-commerce reached 30%, indicating a shift towards diversified product offerings [5]. Live Streaming Insights - Live streaming revenue saw a smaller decline than anticipated, with a year-over-year decrease of 2.0% to 9.8 billion CNY [5]. - The number of signed-up agencies and hosts increased significantly, suggesting a strengthening of the live streaming ecosystem [5]. Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 4.7 billion CNY, with a full-year projection of 19.4 billion CNY for 2025 [5][7]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 54.0%, reflecting operational efficiency [5]. Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential of the company's AI tool, KuaLing, which is expected to enhance advertising and e-commerce capabilities [6][8]. - Long-term revenue projections for KuaLing suggest a market potential of 20-25 billion USD, with significant contributions from both B2B and C2C segments [6][9].

核心观点 原油相关信息： ⚫ 原油及相关库存：2025 年 3 月 28 日美国原油商业库存 4.398 亿桶，周增加 620 万 桶；汽油库存 2.376 亿桶，周减少 160 万桶；馏分油库存 1.146 亿桶，周增加 30 万 桶；丙烷库存 0.44141 亿桶，周增加 98.3 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数：2025 年 3 月 28 日美国原油产量为 1358.0 万桶/天，周度增加 0.6 万桶/天，较一年前增加 48 万 桶/天。2025 年 4 月 4 日美国钻机数 590 台，周度减少 2 台，年减少 30 台；加拿大 钻机数 153 台，周减少 10 台，年度增加 17 台。其中美国采油钻机 489 台，周度增 加 5 台，年度减少 19 台。 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 关注内需及国产替代新材料机会 价格变化： 价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 07 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential benefits for domestic parts companies building factories in Mexico due to the new tariff policies announced by Trump, which will not impose additional tariffs on certain goods [9][12] - The report suggests continued focus on humanoid robotics and automotive supply chain investment opportunities, with expectations for profitability and valuation increases [3][14] - The anticipated growth in market share for competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology by 2025 is emphasized [3][14] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends focusing on companies such as SAIC Motor, BYD, and Changan Automobile, among others, for potential investment opportunities [3][15] - Specific companies highlighted include: - SAIC Motor (buy) - Changan Automobile (buy) - BYD (not rated) - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (buy) - GAC Group (buy) [15] Market Performance - The report notes a decline in the automotive sector, with a 3.5% drop in the CITIC automotive sector index, underperforming the CSI 300 index [17] - The report identifies the top-performing stocks in the automotive sector, including New Aluminum Era and Jiuyi Co., while also noting significant declines in others like Junda Co. [17][18] Sales Tracking - Preliminary statistics indicate a 10% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in March, with total sales reaching 2.41 million units [26] - Retail sales also saw a 12% increase year-on-year, totaling 1.89 million units in March [26] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the launch of new models such as the AITO M8 and M9, which are expected to boost sales for the brand [2][14] - It also highlights the performance of various companies, with notable growth in revenue and profit for firms like Seres and Bojun Technology [39][40]

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 8 家基金公司宣布增资，证券投资基金 托管业务管理办法将迎修订 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 06 日 | | | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究结论 | | 1111111111 | 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | | | | 邱蕊 | 021-63325888*5091 | | ⚫ | 基金市场热点跟踪：1.年内 8 家基金公司宣布增资：年内已有包括摩根士丹利、恒 | | qiurui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 越、国新国证、联博、弘毅远方、苏新、红土红塔、湘财基金等在内的 8 家基金公 | | 执业证书编号：S0860519020001 | | | 司先后增资。3 月 29 日，恒越基金发布公告显示，公司注册资本由 2 亿元增加至 2.3 | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW115 | | | 亿元。增资事项已完成，公司股东及股东持股比例均保持不变。3 月 27 日，摩根士 | 陶文启 | taowenqi@orientsec.com.cn ...

造纸轻工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 4 月智利阔叶浆外盘报价提涨 20 美元/吨 ——造纸产业链数据每周速递（2025/04/05） 核心观点 ⚫ 本周轻工制造行业指数下跌 0.96%，跑赢大盘 0.41pct；造纸子板块下跌 0.53%， 跑赢大盘 0.84pct。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.37%，轻工制造(申万)指数下跌 0.96%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.41pct，在 28 个申万一级行业中位列第 17 位；二级行 业中，造纸子板块下跌 0.53%，跑赢大盘 0.84pct。本周轻工四大子板块按跌幅由小 到大分别为造纸、包装印刷、家具以及文娱用品板块，分别下跌 0.53%、0.87%、 0.96%、1.90%。 | 李雪君 | 021-63325888*6069 | | --- | --- | | | lixuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW124 | | 谢雨辰 | xieyuchen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524090001 | 产业链数 ...

Group 1: ESG Policy Developments - The EU has postponed the implementation of key sustainability reporting and due diligence regulations, including the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) [6] - The EU Commission has set a tight deadline for the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG) to develop simplified sustainability reporting standards by October 31, 2025 [11] - The SEC has decided to stop defending its climate disclosure rules, effectively abandoning the requirement for companies to report climate risks and greenhouse gas emissions [16] Group 2: Domestic ESG Initiatives - The 2024 China Nonferrous Metals Industry ESG Information Disclosure White Paper reports an overall disclosure rate of 46% among listed companies in the sector, with state-owned enterprises at 74% and private enterprises at 29% [20] - The national carbon emissions trading market has expanded to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions [22] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has established the world's largest ecological environment quality monitoring network, covering various environmental factors [25] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The 2025 fiscal policy will focus on supporting ecological civilization construction and promoting green low-carbon transitions in key industries [28] - The macroeconomic downturn is exceeding expectations, which may impact ESG investment performance [33] - Historical data may not predict future performance, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies [33]

Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Non-liquidity Shock **Construction Idea**: Measures the impact of illiquidity on stock returns **Construction Process**: Calculated as the average absolute daily return over the past 20 trading days divided by the corresponding daily trading volume[6][16][19] **Evaluation**: Demonstrated strong performance across multiple indices, indicating its effectiveness in capturing illiquidity effects[6][19][21] - **Factor Name**: Six-Month UMR **Construction Idea**: Captures momentum adjusted for risk over a six-month window **Construction Process**: Risk-adjusted momentum is calculated using a six-month rolling window, incorporating volatility adjustments[6][16][19] **Evaluation**: Consistently performed well in recent periods, showing robustness across different market conditions[6][19][21] - **Factor Name**: One-Year UMR **Construction Idea**: Similar to Six-Month UMR but uses a one-year window for risk-adjusted momentum **Construction Process**: Momentum is adjusted for risk using a one-year rolling window, factoring in volatility[6][16][19] **Evaluation**: Effective in capturing long-term momentum trends, though performance varies by index[6][19][21] - **Factor Name**: Three-Month Volatility **Construction Idea**: Measures short-term price fluctuations **Construction Process**: Calculated as the standard deviation of daily returns over the past 60 trading days[6][16][19] **Evaluation**: Demonstrated strong negative correlation with returns, indicating its utility in identifying high-risk assets[6][19][21] - **Factor Name**: One-Month Turnover **Construction Idea**: Reflects trading activity and liquidity over a short period **Construction Process**: Average daily turnover rate over the past 20 trading days[6][16][19] **Evaluation**: Effective in capturing liquidity dynamics, though performance varies across indices[6][19][21] Factor Backtesting Results - **Non-liquidity Shock**: - Recent Week: 0.58% (HS300), 0.91% (CSI500), 0.93% (CSI800), 0.87% (CSI1000), 1.14% (CSI All)[19][23][27][31][42] - Recent Month: 0.31% (HS300), 0.64% (CSI500), 0.77% (CSI800), 2.40% (CSI1000), 1.33% (CSI All)[19][23][27][31][42] - **Six-Month UMR**: - Recent Week: 0.54% (HS300), -0.09% (CSI500), 0.57% (CSI800), 0.73% (CSI1000), 0.73% (CSI All)[19][23][27][31][42] - Recent Month: 1.53% (HS300), 2.09% (CSI500), 2.35% (CSI800), 3.49% (CSI1000), 3.85% (CSI All)[19][23][27][31][42] - **One-Year UMR**: - Recent Week: 0.46% (HS300), 0.06% (CSI500), 0.88% (CSI800), 0.52% (CSI1000), 0.76% (CSI All)[19][23][27][31][42] - Recent Month: 1.15% (HS300), 2.19% (CSI500), 2.50% (CSI800), 2.85% (CSI1000), 3.74% (CSI All)[19][23][27][31][42] - **Three-Month Volatility**: - Recent Week: 0.24% (HS300), 0.78% (CSI500), 0.59% (CSI800), 0.65% (CSI1000), 0.86% (CSI All)[19][23][27][31][42] - Recent Month: 0.84% (HS300), 3.24% (CSI500), 2.17% (CSI800), 3.63% (CSI1000), 3.60% (CSI All)[19][23][27][31][42] - **One-Month Turnover**: - Recent Week: -0.05% (HS300), 0.48% (CSI500), 0.04% (CSI800), 0.57% (CSI1000), 0.50% (CSI All)[19][23][27][31][42] - Recent Month: 0.19% (HS300), 2.47% (CSI500), 0.19% (CSI800), 3.87% (CSI1000), 1.65% (CSI All)[19][23][27][31][42] Quantitative Model Construction - **Model Name**: Maximized Factor Exposure Portfolio (MFE) **Construction Idea**: Optimizes portfolio weights to maximize exposure to a single factor while controlling for constraints **Construction Process**: - Objective Function: Maximize $f^T w$, where $f$ is the factor value and $w$ is the weight vector - Constraints: Include style exposure, industry deviation, stock weight limits, turnover, and full investment constraints - Formula: $\begin{array}{ll}max&f^{T}w\\ s.t.&s_{l}\leq X(w-w_{b})\leq s_{h}\\ &h_{l}\leq H(w-w_{b})\leq h_{h}\\ &w_{l}\leq w-w_{b}\leq w_{h}\\ &b_{l}\leq B_{b}w\leq b_{h}\\ &0\leq w\leq l\\ &1^{T}w=1\\ &\Sigma|w-w_{0}|\leq to_{h}\end{array}$[57][58][61] **Evaluation**: Provides a robust framework for testing factor effectiveness under realistic constraints[57][58][61] Model Backtesting Results - **MFE Portfolio**: - Demonstrated strong performance in capturing factor-specific returns while adhering to constraints such as turnover and industry exposure[57][58][61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10][7] Core Views - The company is expected to see earnings per share of 1.20, 1.76, and 2.21 yuan for 2024-2026, with a target price of 47.52 yuan based on a 27x PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 [4][10] - The report highlights the company's ongoing expansion in the optical connection business, with significant growth in product offerings and international capacity [9][10] - The manufacturing business is accelerating its high-end transformation, focusing on sectors like new energy vehicles and semiconductor industries [9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 10,208 million yuan in 2023 to 19,516 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.8% [6] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 1,108 million yuan in 2023 to 2,486 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 26.1% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 1,007 million yuan in 2023 to 2,227 million yuan in 2026, indicating a CAGR of 26.2% [6] Business Developments - The company showcased its latest products at the OFC exhibition, including advancements in optical modules and high-speed solutions [9] - The optical connection business is integrating various products and achieving significant testing milestones with major clients [9] - The manufacturing sector is enhancing its capabilities in response to the growing demand in the AI and semiconductor markets [9]

盈利预测与投资建议 维持稳健高分红比例，或有事项影响落地 核心观点 公司主要财务信息 | 风险提示 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | （此处简单列示风险，正文需单独对风险提示详细展开描述） 14,815 | 14,645 | 15,057 | 15,428 | 15,737 | | 同比增长 (%) | 5.5% | -1.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 3,353 | 3,185 | 3,346 | 3,531 | 3,699 | | 同比增长 (%) | 1.6% | -5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 1,337 | 1,115 | 1,352 | 1,427 | 1,497 | | 同比增长 (%) | 5.8% | -16.6% | 21.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | | 每股收益（元） | 2.76 | 2 ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 分红对期指的影响 20250403 研究结论 | IH2504 | 2664.40 | 0.00 | 2.15 | 2.15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2505 | 2662.60 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.69 | | IH2506 | 2658.00 | 17.98 | -4.25 | 13.73 | | IH2509 | 2625.40 | 60.33 | -36.85 | 23.48 | 沪深 300 股指期货: | | 收盘价 | 分红点数 | 实际价差 | 含分红价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2504 | 2664.40 | 0.00 | 2.15 | 2.15 | | IH2505 | 2662.60 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.69 | | IH2506 | 2658.00 | 17.98 | -4.25 | 13.73 | | IH2509 | 2625.40 | 60.33 | -36.85 | 23.48 | | 沪深 300 股指期货: | | ...