Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Changan Automobile's wholesale sales in February 2025 reached 161,400 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.72% but a month-on-month decrease of 41.45%. Cumulative wholesale sales for January-February 2025 totaled 437,100 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.94% [2] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the company's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, which reached 39,700 units in February, marking a month-on-month increase of 68.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 41.25% [2] - The company plans to launch 13 new energy models in 2025, enhancing its global strategy and product offerings, with a focus on smart driving solutions and international expansion [6][7] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In February 2025, the company's total wholesale sales, self-owned brands, and self-owned passenger vehicle sales all experienced month-on-month declines but year-on-year growth. The decline was primarily due to adjustments in production schedules post-Spring Festival and temporary market demand contraction [6] - The NEV penetration rate improved compared to January 2025, with significant contributions from new models set to launch in April 2025 [6] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for the company's main revenue is projected to grow from 151.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 203.9 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [3][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 5.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 9.7 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a recovery after a projected dip in 2024 [3][7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its collaboration with partners like Huawei and CATL, which is expected to bolster its electric and smart transformation efforts [6] - The report outlines the company's plans for international expansion, including the establishment of a factory in Southeast Asia and the introduction of its brands in various global markets [6][7]

Economic Growth and Policy Direction - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, aligning with market expectations, but achieving this will require significant effort due to increasing uncertainties in external demand and trade policies[10] - The contribution of net exports to GDP in 2024 was over 30%, the highest since 1997, but the complex external environment in 2025 necessitates a strong focus on domestic demand[12] Fiscal Policy Measures - Fiscal spending is projected to increase by 4.4% year-on-year, reaching a total of 29.7 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan compared to 2024[15] - The budget deficit is expected to exceed 4% of GDP, breaking the implicit 3% constraint, with a total deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year[13] - Special bonds for local governments will increase by 500 billion yuan to 4.4 trillion yuan, emphasizing investment in infrastructure and housing[15] Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy will maintain an "appropriate easing" stance, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth[17] - The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, reflecting a more pragmatic approach to inflation management in line with global standards[18] Focus on Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with a specific focus on consumer spending, supported by 300 billion yuan in special bonds for replacing old consumer goods, doubling last year's allocation[24] - Central budget investment is planned at 735 billion yuan, an increase of 350 billion yuan from the previous year, emphasizing effective investment[25] Innovation and Green Transition - The report highlights the importance of fostering new industries and upgrading traditional sectors, with a focus on technology and green transformation, including a 3% reduction target in energy consumption per unit of GDP[30] - The government aims to accelerate the development of renewable energy sources and enhance carbon emission control measures[30] Real Estate and Capital Market Stability - The government emphasizes stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, with ongoing efforts to prevent declines and support recovery in housing demand[31] - Capital market reforms will focus on enhancing long-term investment and improving the regulatory framework to boost market stability and investor confidence[34] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, the impact of U.S. tariff policies, and ongoing pressures in the real estate sector, which could affect overall economic stability[41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant events, including Changan Automobile's February 2025 production and sales report, showing a wholesale vehicle sales volume of 161,400 units, with a year-on-year increase of 0.94% for the cumulative sales from January to February 2025 [2][6] - The company plans to launch 13 new energy vehicle models in 2025, enhancing its global strategy and accelerating its electric and intelligent transformation [6][7] - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit for 2024-2026, with projected figures of 5.245 billion, 6.885 billion, and 9.662 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.69, 0.97, and 1.14 yuan [6][7] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In February 2025, the company's wholesale sales were 161,400 units, with a month-on-month decrease of 41.45% and a year-on-year increase of 5.72%. Cumulative sales for January-February 2025 reached 437,100 units, up 0.94% year-on-year [2] - The new energy vehicle sales in February were 39,700 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 68.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 41.25% [2] Financial Forecasts - The main revenue forecast for 2025 is 186.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11% [3] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 6.885 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 31% [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is set to enhance its product lineup with new energy models and expand its global market presence, targeting 81 countries [6] - Collaborations with Huawei and CATL are expected to deepen, supporting the company's electric and intelligent transformation [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for domestic PMI data, suggesting a favorable direction for asset allocation while monitoring variables related to US Treasury rates [5][6][9] - It emphasizes the seasonal recovery in February PMI, indicating a need to pay attention to the incremental policies from the upcoming Two Sessions [5][13] - The investment strategy for March includes a focus on key stocks, with a particular emphasis on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion and technological advancements [5][18] Group 1: Domestic PMI Data and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 50.2, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing activity [8][13] - The non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.4, slightly above market expectations, reflecting a stable recovery in the service sector [8][13] - The report suggests that the recovery in PMI is influenced by the post-Spring Festival resumption of activities and government stimulus measures, with production and new orders showing growth [8][14] Group 2: Market Performance and Asset Allocation - The report notes a general decline in global equity markets during the last week of February, with A-shares experiencing adjustments while US and European markets showed mixed results [7][8] - It highlights a decrease in commodity prices, including oil and metals, alongside a rebound in the US dollar index [7][8] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with strong downstream recovery and competitive cost structures, particularly in non-ferrous metals and petrochemical industries [8][9] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The report discusses the government's focus on expanding domestic demand and technological innovation as key tasks for the upcoming Two Sessions, with GDP growth targets expected around 5% [18][25] - It mentions the potential for increased fiscal deficits and the expansion of special bonds to support economic growth [18][25] - The report also addresses the impact of external uncertainties, particularly related to US trade policies and their potential effects on China's export outlook [18][19]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月05日 标配 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -20% -11% -3% 5% 14% 22% 31% 24-03 24-06 24-09 24-12 25-03 申万行业指数:银行(0748) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 银 行 [table_invest] ➢ 核心观点：3月5日，李强总理代表国务院在十四届全国人大二次会议上作《政府工作报告》。 报告延续此前"适度宽松"的货币政策基调，并继续在防范房地产、地方政府债务等重点 风险保持积极态度。我们认为，在积极的政策环境下，银行息差压力可控，规模增长有望 保持较快增长，房地产、城投领域风险有望继续收敛。 ➢ 货币政策延续"适度宽松"的基调，在存贷联动更加成熟背景下，息差压力趋缓。今年以 来，央行基于防范金融市场与汇率超调风险、宏观经济复苏及中美关系进展等因素相机抉 择，公开市场操作偏审慎，"宽松"进度慢于市场预期。尽管如此，我们认为， ...

zjk@longone.com.cn [Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月05日 标配 行 业 深 度 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 [table_stockTrend] -18% -10% -2% 7% 15% 23% 31% 24-02 24-05 24-08 24-11 申万行业指数:石油石化(0775) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.原油延续震荡，下游有望迎来复苏 行情——原油及聚酯产业链月报 （2025年2月） 2.下游或需求复苏，看好利润空间修 复——原油及聚酯产业链月报（2025 年1月） 3.博迈科（603727）：行业景气上行 订单逐步释放，公司持续发力业绩迎 来反转——公司深度报告 [Table_NewTitle 复盘油价与周期， ] 2014-2015年间的国际 油价波动启示与未来展望 ——石油石化行业深度报告 [table_main] 投资要点： 石 油 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGON ...

Group 1: Thermal Interface Materials - The demand for thermal interface materials (TIM) is expected to increase due to rising heat dissipation needs, with the global market projected to exceed $7 billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10% from 2024 to 2034 [8][9]. - In China, the TIM market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 11.3% during the same period, driven by applications in consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, and communication technologies [8][9]. - The domestic market for TIM is currently dominated by foreign companies, which hold a market share of 45% to 50%, while the domestic production rate was only 23.1% in 2022 [9]. Group 2: Company Analysis - Tongli Co., Ltd. (834599) - Tongli Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 6.185 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.53%, and a net profit of 778 million yuan, up 26.54% year-on-year [14][15]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to increased sales of new energy vehicles and autonomous driving models, with new energy products accounting for approximately 20% of total sales [15]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, such as large-tonnage rigid mining trucks, with plans to launch a 180-ton model and a 220-ton model in the near future [15][16]. Group 3: New Energy Power Industry - The demand for new energy power is recovering, with ongoing construction of offshore wind projects across multiple regions [19][21]. - The solar photovoltaic equipment sector saw a 2.84% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.06 percentage points, indicating a positive market sentiment [19]. - The offshore wind power sector is expected to maintain high growth, with significant project developments in southern regions like Jiangsu and Hainan [21]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For TIM, companies leading in materials such as organic silicon, spherical alumina, and PI films are expected to benefit from domestic production and AI-driven demand [10]. - Tongli Co., Ltd. is recommended for investment due to its strong performance in new energy and autonomous vehicle sectors, with projected net profits of 778 million, 941 million, and 1.039 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [16]. - The offshore wind power sector is advised for investment, particularly companies like Dajin Heavy Industry and Dongfang Cable, which are well-positioned to capitalize on international market opportunities [21].

王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月04日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250304 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1.热界面材料受益散热需求提升，产业链基础助力国产化突破——基础化工行业深度报告 ➢ 2.英伟达Blackwell芯片需求高涨，小米新机与新车发布拉动市场热情——电子行业周报 (2025/2/24-2025/3/2) ➢ 3.同力股份（834599）："新能源+无人车+大型化"带动全年利润高增——公司简评报告 ➢ 4 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月03日 标配 行 业 深 度 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -23% -14% -5% 5% 14% 23% 33% 24-02 24-05 24-08 24-11 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [Table_NewTitle 热界面材料受益散热需求提升，产业链 ] 基础助力国产化突破 ——基础化工行业深度报告 [table_main] 投资要点： 2）企业从单一的热界面材料商向散热方案综合服务商发展，形成平台产品导入合力，绑 定下游龙头客户，开拓新客户，成长能力体现在业绩的稳定性、研发支出的高水平性、产 品矩阵的丰富性。建议关注：飞荣达，中石科技，思泉新材，苏州天脉。 ➢ 风险提示：下游消费电子等周期景气度恢复不及预期；主要客户订 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月03日 超配 ——非银金融行业周报（20250224-20250302） [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -29% -13% 2% 18% 33% 49% 64% 24-03 24-06 24-09 24-12 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.资本市场助力书写金融"五篇大文 章"，险资投资黄金试点启动——非 银 金 融 行 业 周 报 （ 20250203- 20250209） 2.落实长周期考核，助力培育耐心资 本——中长期资金系列研究（一） 3.规范IPO中介机构行为，保险监管 评级发布助力高质量发展——非银 金 融 行 业 周 报 （ 20250113- 20250119） [Table_New ...