Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the electronic sector, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on specific investment themes such as AIOT and consumer electronics [3][7]. Core Insights - The electronic sector is experiencing a mild recovery, with significant advancements in AI technology and a rebound in smartphone sales during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, which saw a 26% year-on-year increase in sales volume [4][5]. - The report highlights the importance of AI in driving future growth, with Baidu's AI model usage increasing approximately 30 times year-on-year, indicating strong demand for AI applications [4][19]. - Despite the positive sales volume, the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones has declined, reflecting ongoing pressures in the consumer electronics market [5][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electronic sector's demand is in a phase of moderate recovery, with key investment themes identified as AIOT, AI-driven innovations, and consumer electronics [3][7]. - The report notes that the semiconductor and electronic components sectors have faced declines, with the semiconductor index down 4.34% and electronic components down 4.17% [6][28]. Key Developments - Baidu has launched new AI technologies, including the iRAG and a no-code tool, enhancing its AI capabilities and demonstrating significant growth in AI model usage [4][19]. - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival resulted in smartphone sales reaching 9.5 million units, a 26% increase compared to the previous year, although ASP has decreased due to market polarization [5][23]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the electronic sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index down 3.29% and the Shenwan electronic index down 4.15% [6][28]. - Various sub-sectors within electronics, such as optical electronics and consumer electronics, experienced notable declines, with the optical electronics sector down 5.54% [6][28].

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月18日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241118 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人： 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.积极信号有所显现——国内观察：2024年10月经济数据 ➢ 2.预期之内的通胀，强化年内小步伐降息——海外观察：2024年10月美国CPI 财经要闻 ➢ 1.外交部发言人全面介绍中美元首利马会晤情况 ➢ 2.两部门调整铝材等产品出口退税政策 ➢ 3.城中村改造政策支持范围已扩大到近300个地级及以上城市 ➢ 4.美国10月零售销售环比增长0.4%，高于预期 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月15日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn [积极信号 Table_NewTitle]有所显现 ——国内观察：2024年10月经济数据 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：11月15日，国家统计局公布10月经济数据。10月社零总额当月同比4.8%，前值3.2%； 固投累计同比3.4%，前值3.4%；规上工业增加值当月同比5.3%，前值5.4%。 ➢ 核心观点：10月经济数据不乏亮点，消费增速的回升，地产销售的降幅大幅收窄，制造业 投资持续的高增长，狭义基建增速的回暖，以及服务业生产指数的年内新高。政策组合拳 从对预期的提振已进入到效果兑现期，预计四季度GDP增速或将明显提升。不过目前价格 水平仍处低位，经济回升的斜率仍有待提升，后续或更应关注名义GDP的回升。我们认为 政策具备持续性，12月政治局会议以及经济工 ...

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The "Double 11" sales performance of pet food is outstanding, with a total online sales of 5.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.92% [6][9] - The leading brands in the pet food sector have shown strong performance, with several brands achieving over 1 billion yuan in sales during the "Double 11" period [6][8] - The domestic pet food market continues to grow rapidly, with opportunities for domestic brands to gain market share as pet ownership increases and consumer preferences shift towards high-quality products [9] Group 2: Company Analysis - DiKe Co., Ltd. (300842) reported a revenue of 11.509 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 88.77%, with a net profit of 293 million yuan, showing stability in profit margins [10][11] - The company maintains a leading position in the photovoltaic conductive silver paste market, with sales of 1,581.16 tons in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.40% [11][12] - Juhe Materials (688503) achieved a revenue of 9.826 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.80%, but faced a decline in net profit by 4.47% [13][14] Group 3: Market Trends - The pet food market is experiencing a shift towards health-oriented products, with baked cat food sales increasing by 147% during the "Double 11" period, indicating a growing consumer focus on pet health [7][8] - The export of pet food from China continues to grow, with a volume of 25,600 tons and an export value of 124 million USD in September 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.47% and 11.04% respectively [9] - The competitive landscape in the pet food industry remains intense, with domestic brands like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co. showing significant sales growth during the "Double 11" event [8][9]

Inflation Data - October US CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, matching expectations, and up from 2.4% previously[2] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and unchanged from the previous month[2] Key Drivers of Inflation - Short-term factors and base effects contributed to the CPI rebound, with housing remaining a sticky component in core CPI[2] - Food prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, while energy prices remained flat, with energy commodities down by 1.0%[3] Core Components - Used cars and trucks saw a significant increase of 2.7% month-on-month, contributing 0.05% to the CPI[3] - Housing prices showed strong stickiness, rising by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflationary pressure[3] Market Reactions - Following the inflation report, the probability of a 25bps rate cut in December rose from around 60% to over 80%[4] - The divergence in US Treasury yields reflects differing expectations for short-term and long-term inflation[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential impacts of tariffs on imported goods could affect US inflation dynamics[4] - Geopolitical risks remain a concern for market stability[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The pet food category achieved remarkable sales during the "Double 11" shopping festival, with total online sales reaching 5.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.92% [3][12] - The trend towards health-conscious and functional pet food is gaining traction among consumers, with significant sales growth in baked cat food and specialized functional foods [4][13] - Domestic leading brands are performing strongly, with intense competition remaining in the market [5][14] - Pet food exports continued to grow year-on-year, with September 2024 figures showing an export volume of 25,600 tons and an export value of 12.4 million USD, reflecting a steady increase [6][19] Summary by Sections 1. "Double 11" Performance - The pet food category saw a total sales amount of 5.9 billion yuan during "Double 11," with 9 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales and 1,340 brands doubling their sales compared to the previous year [3][12] - Online sales growth was broad-based across brands, with significant increases noted on platforms like Tmall and JD [3][12] 1.1. Growth in Functional Foods - Baked cat food sales increased by 147% year-on-year, while specialized functional foods such as urinary health cat food and low-fat cat food saw sales growth of 137% and 326% respectively [4][13] 1.2. Strong Domestic Leaders - Leading domestic brands like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong are showing strong sales performance, with Guobao Pet's self-owned brand sales exceeding 670 million yuan, a 65% increase year-on-year [5][14] 1.3. Export Growth - In September 2024, pet food exports reached 25,600 tons, up 5.47% year-on-year, with export value increasing by 11.04% [6][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Guobao Pet, Zhongchong, and Petty, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in the pet food industry [21]

Key Recommendations - **Deke Co Ltd (300842):** The company maintained a stable net profit margin and leads in new technology R&D, with Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reaching 11.509 billion yuan, up 88.77% YoY, and net profit of 293 million yuan, up 0.07% YoY [7] - **Deke Co Ltd (300842):** The company's photovoltaic conductive silver paste sales reached 1,581.16 tons in Q1-Q3 2024, with N-type TOPCon battery products accounting for 87.66% of total sales, maintaining a leading position in the industry [7] - **Deke Co Ltd (300842):** The company is a leader in BC battery paste technology, with n-Poly, p-Poly, and main grid products leading the market, and is a major supplier for BC battery manufacturers [8] - **Deke Co Ltd (300842):** The company is advancing in HJT technology, with 50% silver-coated copper paste in mass production and 30% silver content paste entering mass production, while also developing low-silver/copper-based conductive paste technologies [8] - **Juhe Materials (688503):** The company experienced short-term performance fluctuations due to industry factors, with Q1-Q3 2024 revenue of 9.826 billion yuan, up 32.80% YoY, and net profit of 421 million yuan, down 4.47% YoY [10] - **Juhe Materials (688503):** The company's photovoltaic conductive silver paste shipments exceeded 1,610 tons in Q1-Q3 2024, with N-type products accounting for 73% of total shipments, and Q3 shipments exceeding 450 tons [11] - **Juhe Materials (688503):** The company is expanding its silver powder business, with a monthly production capacity exceeding 40 tons and sales exceeding 20 tons, and a 3,000-ton silver powder project expected to be operational next year [11] - **Juhe Materials (688503):** The company is advancing in new technologies, with adhesive products for 0BB technology achieving mass production and new insulation and battery protection adhesives for BC components being developed [12] Financial News - **China's Ministry of Finance:** Announced tax policies to promote stable and healthy development of the real estate market, including reduced deed tax rates for first and second homes and adjustments to land value-added tax pre-collection rates [14] - **US CPI Data:** The US October unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.6%, in line with expectations, while the core CPI annual rate was 3.3%, also meeting expectations [16] A-share Market Review - **Shanghai Composite Index:** Rose 0.51% to 3,439 points, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also gaining 0.4% and 1.11% respectively [18] - **Market Performance:** The cultural media sector led gains, rising 3.34%, while tourism, hotels, and gas sectors saw declines [19] - **Optoelectronics Sector:** Fell 0.41%, with significant net outflows of large single funds, but potential for upward momentum remains [20] Market Data - **Financing Balance:** Reached 1.8352 trillion yuan, with reverse repo operations at 2.33 trillion yuan [23] - **Interest Rates:** The 1-year MLF rate was 2%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.44% [23] - **Stock Indices:** The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.26% [23] - **Commodities:** COMEX gold fell 1.01% to $2,578.40 per ounce, while WTI crude oil rose 0.21% to $68.26 per barrel [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 680 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 160 million yuan, up 4.3% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 230 million yuan, a 22.0% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 40 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year. The performance was slightly volatile due to longer acceptance cycles for some customized equipment and increased R&D and financial expenses [7] - The traditional consumer electronics sector remains robust, while the semiconductor business is expected to ramp up. The global smartphone sales have increased, with leading brands launching multiple AI products. This has driven demand for precision welding and other equipment, with strong orders from major clients and global EMS manufacturers. The company is actively advancing its AOI projects and has successfully developed multi-dimensional inspection equipment [7][9] - The company reported a Q3 gross margin of 46.2%, with slight declines both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Sales expenses decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, while management and R&D expenses increased by 2.6% and 4.6%, respectively. Financial expenses rose significantly due to reduced interest income from financial investments [8] - The company's asset-liability ratio is healthy at 27.7%, with cash and cash equivalents accounting for 7.9% of total assets. The cash flow from sales of goods and services accounted for 101.4% of revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 [8] - The company is actively building new growth curves in the smart manufacturing equipment sector, having become a qualified supplier for Bosch automation equipment and collaborating with companies like Faurecia and Innocean. The semiconductor packaging equipment segment is expected to see growth with the introduction of IGBT and SiC module packaging solutions [9] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 223 million, 291 million, and 367 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.90, 1.17, and 1.47 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 27X, 21X, and 17X [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [41]. Core Insights - The report highlights that raw material prices remain high but are expected to decline, which could ease cost pressures for tire manufacturers [16][39]. - Production of semi-steel tires is stable, while full-steel tire production has seen a decrease [11][39]. - Domestic demand for tires is steady, and there is potential for recovery in overseas markets [39]. Cost Side - The average price of key raw materials in October 2024 includes: - Butadiene at 12,631.25 CNY/ton, down 3.70% month-on-month but up 46.70% year-on-year - Natural rubber at 2,055.26 USD/ton, up 5.31% month-on-month and 35.90% year-on-year - Styrene-butadiene rubber at 16,523.91 CNY/ton, up 3.49% month-on-month and 30.63% year-on-year - Carbon black at 7,908.06 CNY/ton, down 3.99% month-on-month and down 20.66% year-on-year - Nylon cord fabric at 21,750 CNY/ton, down 0.85% month-on-month and down 1.79% year-on-year [3][4]. Production Side - In September 2024, the production of rubber tires in China reached 96.6 million units, an increase of 11.00% year-on-year and 1.68% month-on-month - In October 2024, full-steel tire production was 10.54 million units, down 12.31% month-on-month and down 11.65% year-on-year - Semi-steel tire production was 56.27 million units in October, down 0.60% month-on-month but up 4.22% year-on-year [11][39]. Demand Side - Domestic demand remains stable, while overseas demand is expected to recover, particularly in Europe and North America, driven by seasonal sales [17][39]. - The report notes that the export of new inflatable rubber tires from China in September 2024 was 54.27 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.38% but a month-on-month decrease of 12.27% [15]. Industry News - Several companies have reported their third-quarter results, showing significant revenue growth, such as Sailun Tire with a revenue of 23.628 billion CNY, up 24.28% year-on-year [32]. - Bridgestone announced an investment of 85 million USD to expand tire production capacity in India, expected to start in early 2025 [34]. - Multiple tire manufacturers are closing overseas factories due to profitability issues, with at least 15 factories reported to be permanently shut down globally [35]. Monthly Summary and Outlook - The report anticipates that raw material costs may ease, and production capacity utilization for semi-steel tires will remain high, while full-steel tire production may see slight improvements [38][39].

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The solid-state battery route is basically confirmed, but the utilization rate of large-scale storage in China needs improvement. The battery and energy storage sector saw an overall increase of 8.31% in the week of November 4-10, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.81 percentage points [6][7] - The solid-state battery progress is steady, with sulfide routes confirmed. Nandu Power announced a solid-state battery energy density of 350Wh/kg and a cycle life of 2000 times, expected to complete acceptance by Q4 2024. The annual sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 are projected to reach 11.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20.0% [7][8] - The energy storage sector saw 15 new bidding projects this week, with a total scale of 3.00GW/7.44GWh. The average bidding price for energy storage EPC increased to 1.13 yuan/Wh, reflecting a positive trend [9][10] Group 2: Economic News - The Shanghai municipal government has deployed support for mergers and acquisitions of listed companies to enhance company quality and cultivate leading enterprises [18] - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, with expected growth of 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from a previous estimate of 1.93 million barrels per day [18] - The COP29 has approved key provisions of the Paris Agreement, marking the official launch of the global carbon market, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through international cooperation [19] Group 3: Market Data - As of November 12, 2024, the financing balance reached 183.11 billion yuan, with a net increase of 36.62 billion yuan. The one-year MLF rate is at 2%, and the one-year LPR is at 3.1% [26] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3421.97 points, down 1.39%, while the ChiNext Index closed at 2390.80 points, down 0.07% [26]