房地产行业 2024 年及 2025Q1 财报综述： 行业大幅亏损，缩表之下流动性承压 2025 年 5 月 22 日 看好/维持 房地产 行业报告 分析师 陈刚 电话：021-25102897 邮箱：chen_gang@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480521080001 投资摘要： 2024 年报综述： 利润表：从行业整体来看，营收下滑，毛利承压，大幅减值，整体亏损。2024 年地产板块(801180.SL)102 家上市房企合计 实现营收 19837 亿元，同比增速为-21.0%；实现归母净利润-1590 亿元，同比增速为-3230%。我们认为，往年的高价地块 陆续进入结算阶段，叠加流动性压力和房价下行之时房企选择以价换量，使得整体盈利水平面临压力。随着老项目的充分减 值与销售占比的逐渐降低、在房价下行趋势减缓和止跌回稳的政策导向之下，后续减值压力有望降低。2024 年地产板块的整 体净利率为-8.31%，核心净利率为 1.49%，归母净利率为-8.01%；随着老项目的陆续结算与新项目的补充，后续的核心净利 率有望见底回升。 资产负债表：行业持续缩表，流动性压力依然较大。2024 年地产板 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express [4][3]. Core Views - The company reported a business volume of 8.54 billion pieces in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9% [1]. - The focus for 2025 will shift towards increasing market share, with a target business volume of 40.8 to 42.2 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 20-24% [1]. - The company experienced a decline in single-ticket revenue, dropping from 1.36 CNY in Q1 2024 to 1.25 CNY in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased subsidies and a decrease in single-ticket weight [2]. - Operating expenses significantly decreased to 283 million CNY in Q1 2025 from 735 million CNY in Q1 2024, largely due to government subsidies and tax refunds [2]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with a strategy shift back to prioritizing market share, which may lead to slower profit growth in the short term [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 9.52 billion CNY, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.2X, and 8.2X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 38.42 billion CNY in 2023 to 49.90 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.68% [8]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 19.24% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 15.94% [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [4][3] Core Views - The company reported a business volume of 8.54 billion pieces in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9% [1] - The company aims to focus on increasing market share in 2025, despite facing pressure on revenue due to price wars [1][3] - The single ticket revenue decreased by 0.11 CNY, primarily due to increased subsidies and a decline in average weight per ticket [2] - The company’s core costs per ticket showed a notable decrease, with transportation costs dropping from 0.47 CNY to 0.41 CNY [2] - Operating expenses significantly decreased due to government subsidies and tax refunds, totaling 283 million CNY in Q1 2025 compared to 735 million CNY in Q1 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q1 2025, ZTO Express achieved a business volume growth of 19.1%, although this was slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6% [1] - The company maintains its guidance for a total business volume of 40.8 to 42.2 billion pieces for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20-24% [1] Revenue and Costs - The single ticket revenue fell to 1.25 CNY in Q1 2025 from 1.36 CNY in Q1 2024, influenced by increased subsidies and a decrease in ticket weight [2] - The core cost per ticket remained stable at 0.94 CNY, with a reduction in transportation and sorting costs [2] Strategic Focus - The company is shifting its strategy back to prioritizing market share over profitability in response to intensified price competition [3] - The report anticipates that while market share may recover, profit growth will slow down due to ongoing price wars [3] Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for ZTO Express from 2025 to 2027 are 95.2 billion CNY, 112.0 billion CNY, and 126.4 billion CNY, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.2X, and 8.2X [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2]. Core Insights - In April 2025, pig prices experienced fluctuations, with the average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork at 39.16 CNY/kg, 15.20 CNY/kg, and 26.07 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of 5.15%, -1.00%, and -1.19% [3][18]. - The supply side indicates a slight increase in the number of breeding sows, leading to sufficient pig supply in April, while low feed costs have encouraged farmers to increase the weight of pigs [21]. - Demand has been supported by increased secondary fattening and pre-holiday stocking activities, contributing to price stability [21]. - The slaughtering rate for pigs rose by 1.42 percentage points to 27.53% in April, indicating smooth procurement for slaughtering enterprises [21]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of breeding sows slightly increased, resulting in a sufficient supply of pigs for slaughter in April [21]. - The average price of live pigs remained stable around 15 CNY/kg during the May Day holiday, with a national average of 14.98 CNY/kg by May 15 [3][18]. Price Trends - The average sales prices for major companies in April were as follows: Muyuan Foods at 14.66 CNY/kg, Wens Foodstuffs at 14.92 CNY/kg, Zhengbang Technology at 14.44 CNY/kg, and New Hope Liuhe at 14.70 CNY/kg, with slight month-on-month changes [34][39]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased, with Muyuan Foods at 130.71 kg, Wens Foodstuffs at 117.03 kg, Zhengbang Technology at 132.78 kg, and New Hope Liuhe at 97.10 kg [39][45]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that high-quality production capacity will maintain profitability in 2025, with leading companies expected to experience valuation recovery [24][30]. - It is recommended to focus on leading companies with cost advantages and high performance, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Tian Kang Biological, and Shennong Group [30]. Cost Analysis - The latest breeding costs for major companies in April 2025 are as follows: Muyuan Foods at 12.40 CNY/kg, Wens Foodstuffs at 12.60 CNY/kg, and Shennong Group at 12.30 CNY/kg, indicating a competitive cost structure among leading firms [49][50].

Investment Summary - The mechanical sector underperformed in 2024 but has shown strong performance in 2025, with the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index rising by 10.44% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 10.43 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 12.52 percentage points [4][19] - In Q1 2025, the mechanical industry reported a non-recurring net profit of 27.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.03%, marking the highest absolute value and growth rate since Q1 2021 [4][27] General Machinery Focus - The report suggests focusing on engineering machinery and compressors, as the manufacturing PMI fell by 2.78% in April 2025, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment [5][44] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2025, and with the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies, the demand for engineering machinery is expected to increase [5][48] - Beneficiary companies include SANY Heavy Industry (600031), Zoomlion (000157), XCMG (000425), LiuGong (000528), and Shantui (000680) for engineering machinery, and Iceberg Cold Chain (000530), Ice Wheel Environment (000811), Hanbell Precise Machinery (002158), and others for compressors [5][58] New Quality Productivity - Policies are increasingly focusing on enhancing total factor productivity represented by new quality productivity, with attention on low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, humanoid robots, and industrial mother machines [6][10] - The low-altitude economy is expected to benefit from government funding support, with projections indicating that by 2035, the delivery of drones could exceed 61 million units, generating a manufacturing output of approximately 490 billion yuan [7] - Deep-sea technology is crucial for energy security, with significant oil and gas resources located in deep-sea areas, and domestic technology companies are expected to benefit from the push for domestic substitution [8][9] - Humanoid robots are anticipated to address customization challenges, with a focus on key components such as sensors, motors, screws, and reducers, which are critical for mass production and cost reduction [10][11] Industrial Mother Machines - Industrial mother machines are essential for the mass production of core components, and their advancement is expected to enhance profitability in the humanoid robot sector [11][11] Compressor Market Insights - The compressor market is poised for growth due to high demand from the ice and snow economy, with policies supporting the development of ice and snow sports facilities [58][59] - The report estimates that the annual equipment investment increment from new ice and snow venues could reach approximately 26.6 billion yuan over the next five years [59] - The implementation of new energy efficiency standards in 2025 is expected to drive demand for the replacement of commercial refrigeration equipment, with an estimated 35 million units needing updates [63][66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the machinery industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The machinery sector underperformed in 2024 but has shown strong performance in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 10.44%, outperforming major indices [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of new quality productivity and suggests focusing on sectors such as low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, humanoid robots, and industrial mother machines [6][10] Summary by Sections Investment Summary - The machinery equipment index increased by 5.04% in 2024, lagging behind other sectors, while in 2025, it has risen by 10.44%, leading among sectors [4][19] - In Q1 2025, the machinery industry reported a net profit of 27.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30.03%, marking the highest absolute value and growth rate since Q1 2021 [4][27] General Machinery Focus - The report recommends focusing on engineering machinery and compressors, anticipating a boost in demand due to government policies and infrastructure projects [5][44] - The government plans to issue long-term special bonds and accelerate key projects, which is expected to enhance the demand for engineering machinery [48] - Beneficiary companies include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and XCMG [5][48] New Quality Productivity - Policies are expected to focus on enhancing overall factor productivity, particularly in low-altitude economy and deep-sea technology [6][8] - The low-altitude economy is projected to benefit from government funding and is expected to see significant growth in drone deliveries and eVTOL aircraft by 2035 [7][8] - Deep-sea technology is crucial for energy security, with significant potential for domestic equipment replacement in deep-water oil extraction [9][10] Humanoid Robots and Industrial Mother Machines - Humanoid robots are seen as a solution for customization in manufacturing, with a growing number of application scenarios expected by 2025 [10][11] - Industrial mother machines are essential for reducing costs in mass production of core components for humanoid robots, with a focus on enhancing profitability through scale effects [11][12]

行 业 研 究 农林牧渔行业：4 月猪价震荡，企 业出栏体重上行 2025 年 5 月 22 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：4 月生猪价格震荡，仔猪价格表现偏强。农业农村部监测数据 显示，2025 年 4 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 39.16 元/公斤、15.20 元/公 斤和 26.07 元/公斤，环比变化分别为 5.15%、-1.00%和-1.19%。4 月猪价围 绕 15 元/公斤窄幅震荡，五一期间全国生猪价格以稳为主，局地小幅震荡，截 止 5 月 15 日，全国出栏生猪均价 14.98 元/公斤。 供应端：24 年年中能繁母猪存栏微增，对应 4 月出栏生猪量整体充足，叠加 饲料成本低位，养殖压栏增重意愿增强，生猪体重整体增长。需求端：4 月二 次育肥补栏增加，截留标猪货源；下旬五一备货积极性提升，共同对猪价形成 支撑。4 月生猪屠宰开工率回升 1.42 个百分点至 27.53%，屠宰企业收购顺畅。 3 月白毛比价 1.37，4 月毛白价差 4.33 元/公斤，终端消费底部小幅回升。供 给端出栏节奏与二育对短期价格影响更大。 建议持续关注大宗原料走势。5 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the rising gold prices have negatively impacted consumer demand in the gold and jewelry industry, leading to a weak performance in revenue and profits for 2024 and Q1 2025, particularly in the A-share market compared to the Hong Kong market [2][3] - Despite the overall weak performance, certain companies have shown significant growth, particularly those with a high proportion of investment gold bars and strong brand differentiation [3][4] - The report suggests a shift towards brand-driven development in the industry, with younger consumers increasingly favoring unique and well-designed products [4][7] Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the A-share gold and jewelry industry experienced a revenue decline of 4.73% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 17.75% [2] - The combined revenue for A-share and Hong Kong gold and jewelry companies grew by 3.28% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 9.87% [2] - In Q1 2025, A-share gold and jewelry industry revenue fell by 25.22% year-on-year, but net profit saw a slight increase of 3.46% [2] Company Performance Disparities - Companies benefiting from high investment gold bar sales, such as Caibai Co., reported a revenue increase of 45.28% to 12.9 billion yuan [3] - Brands with strong differentiation, like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji, have successfully created unique competitive advantages through innovative product designs [3][4] - The report notes a slowdown in store expansion across the industry, indicating a shift in growth strategies from channel expansion to product and brand development [3] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that strong demand from central banks for gold will support long-term price increases, although short-term fluctuations may occur [5][7] - Investment strategies should focus on brands with high investment product ratios and strong design capabilities, as these are expected to perform well in the current market environment [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of brand development and product differentiation as key drivers for future growth in the gold and jewelry industry [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for CNOOC Services [4] Core Views - CNOOC Services achieved a total revenue of 48.3 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.137 billion yuan, up 4.1% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 10.8 billion yuan, a 6.4% increase, with net profit soaring by 39.6% to 888 million yuan [1][10] Summary by Sections Drilling Services - The average daily revenue for semi-submersible drilling platforms increased to 143,000 USD, a rise of 7.5% year-on-year. The drilling segment generated 13.2 billion yuan in revenue, up 9.4% year-on-year. Despite a decrease in operational days due to typhoons, Q1 2025 saw an 11.4% increase in operational days, with semi-submersible daily rates maintaining a high level [2][3] Oilfield Technical Services - Revenue from oilfield technical services reached 27.655 billion yuan in 2024, up 7.4%, with the technical segment's contribution rising to 57%. The core business line showed improved operational volume and R&D efficiency, supporting resilient gross margins [2][3] Other Businesses - The ship service segment saw a significant increase in operational volume, up 33.8% in 2024 and 44.9% in Q1 2025. However, the geophysical segment experienced fluctuations due to project cycles, with a notable decline in Q1 2025 [3] Financial Health - The company improved its debt structure, with a decrease in current liabilities to 2.91 billion yuan, down 1.69% year-on-year. Operating cash flow was 11 billion yuan, a decline of 15.9% due to increased operating costs [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing demand in deepwater and technical services, with a focus on international expansion and technological advancements. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.729 billion, 5.896 billion, and 7.487 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.99, 1.24, and 1.57 yuan [10][11]

Weekly Insights - The market has returned to a normal state, maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern as the US-China tariff dispute has come to a close, leading to a decrease in concerns regarding the index [4][7] - The market is currently focused on rhythm and opportunities, with an increase in individual stock opportunities, particularly in small and mid-cap stocks following the implementation of new restructuring regulations [4][7] - The restructuring and mergers in emerging industries are expected to significantly improve the asset quality of the A-share market, enhancing market activity and profit potential [4][7] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a high position and actively participate in structural investment opportunities, as the market is expected to continue its oscillation until July [5][8] - Given the low trading volume, large-cap sectors may struggle to sustain upward momentum, making it reasonable to engage in sector rotation strategies [5][8] - There is an expectation of a rebound in undervalued sectors as interest rates continue to decline, with institutional funds likely to favor low-valuation, high-dividend stocks [5][8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on small and mid-cap stocks in May, as the market's restructuring style is expected to strengthen significantly, particularly represented by the CSI 1000 index [6][9] - Continue to look for opportunities in the large technology sector, which presents good entry points for investment [6][9] - Pay attention to the new consumption sector, particularly companies with relevant IP, as they are likely to create new consumption scenarios and business models [6][9] Market Data - The overall market rebounded this week, with the ChiNext index showing the largest increase [10] - The trading volume has decreased, indicating weaker market activity [15] - The financing balance has also declined as market activity has noticeably decreased [17]