Xml [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|国防军工 2025 年 1 月 6 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 | | | | 新·视角：装备维修，穿越周期、增强盈利、可预测的现金流 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： [Tabl | 孟祥杰 | 分析师： | 吴坤其 | 分析师： | 邱净博 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260521040002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120005 | | | SFC CE.no: BRF275 | | SFC CE.no: BRT139 | | | | | 010-59136693 | | 010-59133689 | | 010-59136685 | | | mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn | | wukunqi@gf.com.cn | | qiujingbo@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，邱净博并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受 ...

[Table_Title] 基础化工行业 涤纶长丝库存低位，制冷剂季度长协价稳步上行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|基础化工 证券研究报告 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-05 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 基础化工 沪深300 ⚫ 行业基础数据跟踪：12 月 30 日~1 月 3 日，SW 基础化工板块下跌 6.29%，跑赢万得全 A 指数 0.71pct；化工子行业多呈下跌趋势，表现 较好的有油气开采、煤化工、钾肥。 ⚫ 化工品价格下跌较多：据百川、wind 资讯，在我们跟踪的 336 个产品 中,上涨/持平/下跌的产品数量分别 69/196/71 种,占比分别为 21%/58%/21%。化工品价格下跌较多。价格涨幅前五：硫酸亚铁、波 罗的海干散货指数 BDI、丁二烯、WTI 现货、日本 LNG 现 ...

Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|家用电器 证券研究报告 家用电器行业 [Table_Title] 19 个省市以旧换新政策无缝衔接 核心观点： 奥维云网 2024W52（2024.12.23-2024.12.29）零售数据：空调线下 销量 YoY+97.9%，线上销量 YoY+27.2%；冰箱线下销量 YoY+49.6%， 线上销量 YoY-2.2%；洗衣机线下销量 YoY+46.7%，线上销量 YoY- 5.5%；干衣机线下销量 YoY+78.1%，线上销量 YoY+65.3%。厨房大 电方面，油烟机线下销量 YoY+65.7%，线上销量 YoY+42.1%；燃气 灶线下销量 YoY+55.9%，线上销量 YoY+41.8%；洗碗机线下销量 YoY+63.7%，线上销量 YoY+44.2%。厨房小家电方面，电蒸锅线下销 量 YoY-26.7%，线上销量 YoY-14.1%；破壁机线下销量 YoY-10.1%， 线上销量 YoY-6.0%。 ⚫ 风险提示：原材料价格上涨；汇率大幅波动；行业需求趋弱；行业竞 争加剧。 [Table_Author] 分析师： 曾婵 SAC 执证号：S0260517 ...

证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 非银金融行业 政策优化及靠前发力，市场情绪有望提振 [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|非银金融 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-01-05 [Table_Author] 分析师： 陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. BOB667 0755-82535901 chenfu@gf.com.cn 分析师： 严漪澜 SAC 执证号：S0260524070005 0755-88286912 yanyilan@gf.com.cn -10% 3% 16% 28% 41% 54% 01/24 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 非银金融 沪深300 请注意，严漪澜并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_DocReport] 相关研究： | 非银金融行业:550 亿元互换 | 2025-01-02 | | --- | --- | | 便利完成招标，持续优化维 | | | 稳市场 ...

相关研究 [Table_Report ： ] [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|银行 2025 年 1 月 5 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 社融前瞻与流动性展望 20250105 | [Tabl 分析师： | 倪军 | 分析师： | 许洁 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | SAC 执证号：S0260518080004 | | | | | SFC CE.no: BNU965 | | | 021-38003646 | | 021-38003625 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | xujie@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 跨境流动性压力何时缓解？从跨境流动性来看，一方面特朗普上台后美元美债的预期交易将告一段落，另一方 面春节期间服务贸易资金流出短期见顶，大概率春节后跨境流出压力缓解。 从年初票据利率同比走势来看，开门红 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the central bank's actions and market liquidity as the year transitions, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy in response to upcoming fiscal pressures and seasonal demands [18][19][22]. Summary by Sections Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank conducted a total of 2,909 billion CNY in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3,442 billion CNY [18]. - The report notes a significant drop in funding rates for periods longer than 7 days post-year-end, while overnight rates are expected to decline after the upcoming reserve requirement payment date [19]. Bank Financing Tracking - The issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) has decreased, with the average issuance rate at 1.67%, down by 2 basis points [20]. - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit for the period was 1,644 billion CNY, with a net financing scale of 1,199 billion CNY [20]. - The report highlights a decrease in the issuance scale of interbank certificates, indicating a potential end to the year-end liability replenishment by banks [20]. Government Debt Financing - The net payment for government bonds was -316.64 billion CNY, with expectations of a similar trend in the upcoming period [18]. - The report indicates that government bond issuance has minimal impact on market liquidity [18]. Interest Rates Overview - The report details the changes in various interest rates, including a decline in government bond yields across all maturities, with the 10-year bond yield settling at 1.60% [21]. - The report also notes a significant increase in bill rates, particularly for 1-month and 3-month bills, reflecting strong demand from banks at the start of the year [21][22].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 环保行业深度跟踪 展望 2025：化债下的国企改革，重视运营资产 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-01-05 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 环保 沪深300 | [Table_Author 分析师： ]郭鹏 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260514030003 | | SFC CE No. BNX688 | | 021-38003655 | | guopeng@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 陈龙 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523030004 | | 021-38003623 | | shchenlong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 荣凌琪 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120006 | | 021-38003686 | | ronglingqi@g ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 证券研究报告 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 | | | 人民币贬值，中美利差大幅走扩 | 银行行业:社融前瞻与流动性 | 2025-01-05 | | --- | --- | | 展望 20250105 | | | 银行行业:等待央行择机—— | 2025-01-05 | | 银行资负跟踪 20250105 | | | 跨境流动性跟踪月报 | 2024-12-29 | | 20241229:货物贸易资金流出 | | | 继续放缓 | | [联系人： Table_Contacts] 李文洁 021-38003644 gfliwenjie@gf.com.cn 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 -10% -1% 8% 16% 25% 34% 01/24 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | 021-38003646 | | nijun@g ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that the AI industry trend continues, with a marginally relaxed policy environment for internet media. The upcoming Spring Festival film supply is expected to improve, indicating a potential turning point for the industry. Positive performance expectations and reasonable valuations suggest active monitoring of the sector [7][13]. Summary by Sections Internet Media - The WeChat mini-store gift feature has gained popularity, with daily sales reaching 10,000 orders. This indicates a successful integration of private traffic, precise pricing, and holiday operations, which may enhance WeChat's e-commerce capabilities and positively impact Tencent's performance [13][18]. Gaming - The gaming sector has seen adjustments, with improved valuation attractiveness. Several key new games have launched, and the report maintains that A-share companies have product cycles that could lead to performance elasticity. Companies like Perfect World, Century Huatong, and others are recommended for their strong product reserves [14][18]. Film Industry - In 2024, the national box office recorded 42.486 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.63% year-on-year. The report anticipates a turning point in content supply with a strong lineup for the Spring Festival, potentially leading to record box office numbers. Companies like Maoyan Entertainment and Wanda Film are highlighted for their performance elasticity during this period [15][18]. AI Developments - The report notes significant advancements in AI models, with OpenAI setting ambitious goals for 2025. Domestic models are also evolving, with lower costs and enhanced capabilities, which could foster a prosperous future for AI applications. Investment opportunities in AI applications are emphasized [16][17][18]. Company Performance - Meituan reported Q3 revenue of 93.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.38%. The core local business showed robust growth, and new business segments are gradually reducing losses. The report forecasts revenue growth for 2024-2025 [19][21]. - Tencent Holdings demonstrated stable performance in gaming and advertising, with expectations for continued growth in e-commerce through WeChat. Revenue projections for 2024-2025 are set at 657.9 billion and 713 billion yuan, respectively [22]. - Baidu's Q3 revenue was 33.557 billion yuan, with a slight decline year-on-year. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in advertising performance and highlights the potential of AI in enhancing search capabilities [23]. - Kuaishou's Q3 revenue reached 31.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11%. The company is balancing revenue growth with profit release, focusing on content-driven strategies [24][25]. - Bilibili's Q3 revenue was 7.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26%. The gaming segment's rapid growth significantly boosted profitability [26].

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 | 1 期） | | --- | | 年第 | | [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2025 | 动力煤价延续回升，中下游库存压力缓解，板块估值股息具备优势 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-05 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -14% -5% 4% 12% 21% 30% 01/24 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 煤炭开采 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author] | 沈涛 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 | | | SFC CE No. AUS961 | | | 010-59136686 | | | shentao@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 安鹏 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 | | | SFC CE No. BNW1 ...