Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth in advertising revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 23% in Q3 2025, reaching 25.7 billion yuan [8] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 7.86 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 233% [6] - The company's monthly active users (MAU) grew by 8% year-on-year to 376 million, while daily active users (DAU) increased by 9% to 117 million, indicating strong user engagement [6] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 76.9 billion yuan, marking a 5% increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [6] - The gross profit margin improved to 36.7%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company reported a net profit of 4.69 billion yuan, a turnaround from a loss of 0.88 billion yuan in the same period last year [6] Business Segments - Mobile gaming revenue in Q3 2025 was 15.11 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year [7] - The advertising segment's revenue growth was driven by strong performance in sectors such as gaming, e-commerce, and automotive, with AI-related advertising revenue increasing by nearly 90% [8] - Live streaming and value-added services generated 30.23 billion yuan in revenue, a 7% year-on-year increase, with paid user numbers reaching 35 million [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 30.16 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding adjusted net profit of 2.5 billion yuan [11] - The target market capitalization for 2026 is estimated at 109.1 billion yuan, with a target price of 259 yuan per share [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to reduced production and imports, with October coal production down 2.3% year-on-year, and imports down 9.76% [6][25] - Demand has significantly improved in October, primarily driven by increased coal consumption in thermal power and chemical industries, while the construction and metallurgy sectors have shown a decline [6][26] - The report highlights a notable increase in coal prices, with port prices rising by 56 yuan/ton in October, reflecting the improved supply-demand dynamics [10][11] Supply Side Summary - Coal production in October was 407 million tons, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, with daily production averaging 13.12 million tons, down 596,000 tons from the previous month [4][19] - The decline in production is attributed to maintenance, adverse weather, and stricter safety checks [6][19] - Coal imports in October were 41.74 million tons, down 9.76% year-on-year, with a cumulative import of 388 million tons from January to October, reflecting an 11.0% decrease [25][26] Demand Side Summary - Thermal power generation increased by 7.3% year-on-year in October, reversing a decline from September [6][26] - The total industrial electricity generation in October was 800.2 billion kWh, up 7.9% year-on-year, with a daily average of 25.81 billion kWh [5][18] - Chemical industry coal consumption rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 35.38% in October [10][26] Inventory Summary - By the end of October, coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 135,000 tons, while inventories at northern ports increased by 432,000 tons [10][11] - The report notes that inland power plants have increased their coal inventories, indicating a trend towards replenishment as winter approaches [10][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which exhibit strong cash flow and profitability [10][12] - It emphasizes the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of the current market conditions and potential for price increases [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong, with the northern port coal price reaching 834 RMB/ton, an increase of 17 RMB/ton week-on-week, as the industry anticipates an increase in daily consumption during the winter peak season [4][14][71] - The supply-demand balance in the coal market remains favorable, with stable production and a slight increase in port inventories, while non-electric demand from sectors like metallurgy and chemicals continues to support coal consumption [5][14][71] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with strong cash flows and high dividend yields, amidst market volatility and external economic pressures [7][73] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The northern port thermal coal price increased to 834 RMB/ton, with production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region stable at 89.79% [14][21] - Daily consumption at coastal and inland power plants showed a week-on-week change of -8.0 and +12.3 thousand tons, respectively, indicating a recovery phase [14][24] - The report notes a decrease in coal imports due to rising prices and lower acceptance from downstream users, while supply constraints from Indonesia and Russia are expected to limit import availability [14][71] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal production capacity utilization increased by 0.37 percentage points to 84.2%, driven by recovery in some mines in Shanxi [5][72] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port rose to 1,366 trucks, indicating stable supply [5][72] - The report anticipates that despite short-term market sentiment fluctuations, coking coal prices will remain stable due to low production and inventory levels [6][72] 3. Coke - The supply-demand balance for coke remains stable, with some steel mills accepting a price increase of 50-55 RMB/ton, effective from November 15 [6][51] - The report indicates that independent coking plants have seen a decrease in production rates, while iron output has increased, supporting demand for coke [6][58] 4. Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which exhibit strong fundamentals and growth potential [7][9][73] - It suggests that investors should consider the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of ongoing market dynamics and regulatory changes [7][73]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - Concerns over overseas electrolytic aluminum supply due to power shortages have led to aluminum prices surpassing 22,000 RMB/ton [11] - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable, with expectations of continued demand growth despite entering the traditional off-season [11] - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in the long term due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections Price - As of November 14, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,858.5 USD/ton, a decrease of 3.5 USD/ton week-on-week but an increase of 330.5 USD/ton year-on-year [21] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 21,840.0 RMB/ton, up 215.0 RMB/ton week-on-week and up 1,075.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [21] Production - In October 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.742 million tons, an increase of 127,000 tons month-on-month and 168,000 tons year-on-year [51] - The production of alumina in October 2025 was 7.785 million tons, up 182,000 tons month-on-month and 872,000 tons year-on-year [51] Inventory - As of November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 621,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 1,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.281 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week-on-week [31] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price 30.55 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.65 RMB, with a PE ratio of 11.5, rated as "Buy" [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price 14.02 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.00 RMB, with a PE ratio of 14.0, rated as "Buy" [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price 25.73 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.13 RMB, with a PE ratio of 12.1, rated as "Buy" [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price 11.66 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.84 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.8, rated as "Buy" [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price 25.95 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.88 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.8, rated as "Buy" [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency disclosure of the PCF list of ETF funds makes it have the potential to observe the actual holdings. Although there are some limitations, it has reference value [4][11]. - When using the PCF list to observe the actual holdings of ETFs, there is an implicit assumption of full - position allocation, and the actual positions of ETFs may not be fully occupied, but the overall deviation is within 10% [6][13]. - Since October, 18 credit bonds have been increased in holding by ETFs with a scale of over 500 million yuan, including 12 newly - listed bonds [6][11][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.1 Based on the Component Bond Holdings Observation of the PCF List - According to the information disclosure requirements of bond ETFs, the PCF list can be used as an approximate observation of the actual holdings of ETFs. When investors subscribe or redeem bond ETFs, they need to operate according to the PCF list [13]. - Using the PCF structure to simulate the actual holdings of ETFs implies the assumption of full - position allocation, but the actual positions of ETFs vary. For example, as of June 30, 2025, the proportion of bond assets in the fund assets of benchmark - making credit bond ETFs ranged from less than 80% to over 95% [13]. - Taking the top 5 holding bonds of a benchmark - making credit bond ETF as an example, the overall deviation between the estimated value and the actual value is within 10%, with 3 over - estimated, 1 under - estimated, and 1 accurately estimated [14]. 1.2 Which Bonds Have Been Increased in Holding by Bond ETFs Recently? - Since the second batch of science - innovation bonds were listed, the scale of credit bond ETFs has reached a phased high. Without new scale, the adjustment behavior of bond ETFs on component bonds has reference value for investors [18]. - Based on the observation results of the PCF list, the holding amount and its changes of each bond can be calculated. From October, 18 credit bonds have been increased in holding by ETFs with a scale of over 500 million yuan, including 12 newly - listed bonds and 6 bonds listed before October [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate their long-term growth. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials supports one generation of industry," highlighting the foundational role of the new materials industry in supporting other sectors [5][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Electronic Information Sector - Focus on semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [6]. - A breakthrough in flexible electronics was reported, with a team from Nanjing University achieving a quantum efficiency of over 45% for tandem perovskite LEDs, setting a new world record [23]. 2. Aerospace Sector - Key areas of interest include PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers [10]. 3. New Energy Sector - The upcoming "15th Five-Year" special plan for power batteries aims to promote the development of new battery industries. Recent data indicates that the energy density of battery cells has exceeded 300 Wh/kg, with rapid charging capabilities and average ranges exceeding 500 km [12]. 4. Biotechnology Sector - Focus on synthetic biology and scientific services [13]. 5. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Key areas include adsorption resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [15]. Industry Rating and Investment Strategy - The new materials sector is catalyzed by downstream application sectors, gradually entering a prosperous cycle, thus maintaining a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [46] Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2025 revenue reached 192.9 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 15% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5% [9][17] - The company's operating profit was 63.6 billion RMB, up 19% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter [9][17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion RMB, also reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase and a 13% quarter-over-quarter increase [9][17] - Non-IFRS operating profit and net profit both grew by 18% year-over-year, reaching 72.6 billion RMB and 70.6 billion RMB respectively [9][17] Summary by Sections 1. Operational Data - WeChat's monthly active users (MAU) reached 1.414 billion, growing 2.3% year-over-year and 0.2% quarter-over-quarter [10] - QQ's smart terminal MAU continued to decline year-over-year [10] - Paid value-added service accounts reached 265 million, stable compared to the previous year [10] 2. Overall Performance - Gross margin improved to 56.4%, up 3.28 percentage points year-over-year [21] - Non-IFRS operating profit and net profit both increased by 18% year-over-year [17][21] 3. Value-Added Services - Game revenue grew by 23% year-over-year, with domestic and international markets increasing by 15% and 43% respectively [29] - Tencent Video maintained a leading position with 114 million video subscribers [29] - Online music service revenue increased by 27.2% year-over-year to 6.97 billion RMB [29] 4. Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue grew by 21% year-over-year to 36.2 billion RMB [38] - AI applications enhanced advertising click-through and conversion rates [38] 5. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services grew by 10% year-over-year to 58.2 billion RMB [41] - The average payment transaction amount increased, and the business maintained the lowest bad debt ratio in the industry [41] 6. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 753.9 billion, 847.4 billion, and 931.4 billion RMB respectively [42] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for the same period are 260 billion, 298.9 billion, and 338.1 billion RMB [42] - The target market value for Tencent in 2025 is set at 6.6 trillion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 791 HKD [42]

2025 年 11 月 16 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李航 S0350521120006 | | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 邱迪 S0350522010002 | | | qiud@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李铭全 S0350523030001 | | | limq@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李昂 S0350525030002 | | | lia@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 宇树推出首款轮式人形机器人，傅利叶 FDH-6 仿生型灵巧手正式发售 ——人形机器人行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/11/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 电力设备 | 11.3% | 39.4% | 37.4% | | 沪深 300 | 2.0% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 相关报告 《电力设备行业周报：锂电产业链走出低谷期， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry, indicating that the AI bubble is still in its early stages, closer to the year 1997 of the internet era rather than 1999 [3]. Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the potential risks of a bubble in the US AI industry, methods to measure the extent of the AI bubble, and how these indicators compare to the internet era [3]. - Five dimensions are used to monitor the AI bubble's degree, including Capex/GDP, Capex/revenue, revenue growth rate, valuation, and funding quality [3]. - The AI industry is experiencing a shift from a "cash flow battle" to a "financing battle," with increased competition and a focus on efficiency [5]. Summary by Sections Five Dimensions to Monitor AI Bubble Degree - **Capex/GDP**: Approaching or exceeding levels seen during the internet bubble, with AI technology's adoption and its impact on GDP growth occurring at a faster pace than in the past [3]. - **Capex/Revenue**: High Capex relative to AI-related revenue, but still manageable compared to free cash flow [3]. - **Revenue Growth Rate**: AI-related revenue growth is on par with Capex growth, with large AI tech companies showing stronger financial health than their internet bubble counterparts [3]. - **Valuation**: Valuations are nearing internet bubble levels, but strong profit support and high market concentration among tech giants enhance their market influence [3]. - **Funding Quality**: Remains healthy, although there are concerns that funding quality may decline due to rising interest rates and the influence of new players in cloud computing [3]. Credit Cycle Positioning - A new round of the US corporate credit cycle has begun, primarily driven by the AI industry, while the US consumer credit cycle is still in a downward trend [5][9]. AI Industry Changes - The AI industry is facing intensified competition, with a shift in focus from cash flow to financing, leading to a decline in revenue quality due to cyclical trading [5]. AI Industry Core Issues - The primary challenge in the AI industry is enhancing efficiency, with limited new productivity and a reliance on existing ToB clients for orders [5].

Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the current position of the convertible bond market and the optimal strategies to adopt in this context [4]. - The convertible bond market is currently in a phase of consolidation following a high valuation correction, with risks being released but the cost-effectiveness of allocations still needing improvement [4]. - The premium rate has decreased from a high of 32.49% at the end of August to around 27%, stabilizing around 29% recently, indicating a cooling market [4][5]. - The median of the dual-low value has also dropped from above 170 to a range of 166-168, reflecting similar characteristics to previous market peaks since 2022 [4]. Market Positioning - The current market is not in a high valuation danger zone, nor has it reached a significantly attractive allocation bottom [4]. - The dual-low strategy continues to demonstrate superior risk-return characteristics during this consolidation phase, historically yielding stable excess returns while controlling drawdowns better than high valuation strategies [5]. - In previous market peak phases, such as February 2022 and August 2022, the dual-low strategy outperformed, while high valuation strategies generally underperformed with larger drawdowns [5]. Strategic Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on the dual-low strategy while optimizing execution based on the valuation environment [5]. - Selection of individual bonds should prioritize those with reasonable valuations and sufficient downside protection, adjusting traditional dual-low price screening standards to better fit the current market structure [5]. - Increasing the weight of high-rated bonds in the portfolio is suggested to enhance overall defensive attributes and stability, balancing returns and risks in a volatile market [5].