Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential awakening of the coal sector, suggesting that after a challenging period, coal prices are expected to rise towards the end of the year, providing upward momentum for the sector [2]. Industry Performance - As of September 19, 2025, the coal industry has seen a decline of 2.3% year-to-date, ranking last among 30 industries. However, in the week of September 19, it experienced a weekly increase of 3.6%, ranking second among the industries, indicating a significant contrast in performance [2]. - The report predicts that the coal price will stabilize and potentially reach a peak by the end of the year, which could drive further positive performance in the coal sector [2]. Company Focus - The report highlights several companies to watch within the coal sector: - **Keda Control**: Noted for its focus on smart mining [2]. - **China Coal Energy (H+A)** and **China Shenhua (H+A)**: Major state-owned enterprises in the coal industry [2]. - **China Qinfa**: Recommended for its turnaround potential [2]. - **Shanxi Coal and Electricity, Huainan Mining, and Xinji Energy**: Identified as strong performers [2]. - **Yankuang Energy, Jinkong Coal, and Pingmei Shenma**: Noted for their elasticity and potential for growth [2]. - **Huayang Co. and Gansu Energy**: Suggested as companies with future growth potential [2]. - **Anyuan Coal Industry**: Highlighted for its recent changes in control and ongoing asset restructuring [2].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 09 23 年 月 日 熊猫债驱动人民币实现跨境循环。作为境外主体在境内发行的人民币债 券，熊猫债驱动人民币形成了"境内募资-境外使用-跨境回流"的闭环链 条。从存量熊猫债披露的募集资金用途来看，发行人除了将一部分资金存 于境内 NRA 账户，用于偿还境内债务或境内营运，也还会将一定比例的 募集资金汇出境外使用。 熊猫债扩容的背后是人民币稳定度的提升和境内利率水平的下降。从汇率 角度看，今年以来美元指数呈趋势性下行，同期 CFETS 人民币汇率指数呈 现"先下后稳"特征，整体波动幅度亦小于美元指数； 从利率角度看，2024 年以来熊猫债发行利率与美国国债收益率走势呈现分化特征，美债收益率 在 2024 年初明显冲高回落，且波动相对剧烈。同期限熊猫债利率更加平 稳且呈下行趋势，低利率对国际发行人具有更强的吸引力。 央国企主导，中短期为主。熊猫债发行人中，央企与地方国有企业合计金 额占比 43%，为当前熊猫债市场的核心发行主体，其次为国际开发机构， 金额占比 18%。从发行期限结构占比来看，1 年以内短期品种金额占比呈 持续下降态势；1-3 年中 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report indicates a rebound in copper, aluminum, and steel inventories, with the inventory high-frequency index reaching 162.0, an increase of 8.7 points year-on-year [2][3] - The industrial production high-frequency index is at 127.0, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3 points, indicating stable production growth [2] - The report highlights a significant growth opportunity in the enterprise storage market, driven by AI investments, with the market expected to reach $87.8 billion in 2025, growing at a CAGR of approximately 18.7% from 2024 to 2028 [6][7] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - The company, 香农芯创, has established a dual business model of "distribution + products," having acquired distribution rights for major semiconductor manufacturers and launched a joint venture for enterprise-level SSDs [4][5] - In the first half of 2025, 香农芯创 achieved revenue of 17.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119%, indicating strong growth driven by AI-related capital expenditures [6][7] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for enterprise-level storage solutions, with a focus on high-capacity and low-energy products, and aims to enhance its market share through domestic product replacements [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current position of ultra - long bonds has both trading and allocation value. The ultra - long bond spread is expected to gradually repair, and in the second half of the fourth quarter, ultra - long bonds may decline more smoothly as the overall bond market strengthens [4][25]. - The current ultra - long bond term spread has significantly deviated from the fitted value, indicating that ultra - long bonds are oversold to some extent, and the space for the spread to continue rising is limited [3][21]. - As long as the liquidity of ultra - long bonds does not decline significantly, the spread is unlikely to return to the level before 2024, and currently, there is no basis for the spread to continue rising [3][24]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Current Situation of Ultra - long Bonds - During the recent bond market adjustment, ultra - long bonds fell significantly, and the 30 - 10 - year Treasury bond term spread widened significantly, rising from about 21bps at the beginning of July to over 30bps, reaching the highest level since 2024 [1][7]. - The 30 - year Treasury bond yield rose from about 1.85% at the beginning of July to about 2.1% (active bond) currently, and the new bond yield rose to around 2.20% [7]. 3.2 Reasons for the Widening of Ultra - long Bond Term Spread - **Risk preference**: Since July this year, the stock market has risen, and the A - share market has strengthened significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 3458 points to 3820 points from July to September 19, with a cumulative increase of 10.5%. Due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the market's investment enthusiasm for bonds declined, and the bond yield adjusted significantly, leading to the widening of the 30 - 10 - year Treasury bond spread [1][9]. - **Supply**: Since May this year, the issuance of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds has accelerated. Except for June with a net financing of 19.2 billion yuan, the net financing in other months exceeded 20 billion yuan, significantly higher than the first - half average of 10.97 billion yuan. The issuance of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds led to an upward movement of secondary - market interest rates and a widening of the term spread [1][13]. - **Funds**: There is a significant negative correlation between the 30 - 10 - year Treasury bond spread and R007. Since March this year, the capital price has declined significantly. R007 dropped from the high of 2.3% at the beginning of the year to 1.5% in August, and the decline in short - term interest rates intensified the steepness of the yield curve [1][13]. 3.3 Liquidity of Ultra - long Bonds - Since 2023, the turnover rate of ultra - long bonds has increased significantly, and ultra - long bonds have changed from a configuration variety to a trading variety, bringing a price premium to ultra - long bonds. In August, the monthly turnover rate of ultra - long bonds was still as high as 7.6%, indicating that ultra - long bonds still maintain high liquidity [2][16]. 3.4 Pricing Analysis of Ultra - long Bond Term Spread - Using the monthly average of R007, the monthly turnover rate of 30 - year Treasury bonds, the net financing of ultra - long Treasury bonds over 10 years (6M MA), and the Wind All - A Index as explanatory variables, a regression analysis was conducted on the 30 - 10 - year Treasury bond spread. The regression equation has a relatively strong explanatory ability [2][20]. - The current fitted central value of the 30 - 10 - year Treasury bond spread is 22.3bps, and the upper limit is about 27bps. However, the current ultra - long bond spread has exceeded the upper limit of one - standard deviation, indicating that ultra - long bonds are oversold to some extent, and the space for the spread to continue rising is limited [3][21]. - By assuming variables from September to December, the estimated 30 - 10 - year Treasury bond spread central values from September to December are 22.1bps, 22.7bps, 27.0bps, and 28.0bps respectively, all lower than the current spread level above 30bps, indicating that the risk of the ultra - long bond spread continuing to rise in the future is limited [21].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [9]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the semiconductor distribution sector, leveraging a dual strategy of "distribution + products" to drive growth [1][16]. - The company has seen significant revenue growth, with a 119% year-on-year increase in H1 2025, driven by rising market demand and product price increases [2][27]. - The enterprise storage market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of approximately 18.7% from 2024 to 2028, indicating substantial opportunities for domestic players [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formerly known as Anhui Julong Transmission Technology Co., Ltd., transitioned into the semiconductor distribution field after acquiring United Chuangtai in 2021 and rebranding as Xiangnon Xinchuan [1][16]. - It has established partnerships with major semiconductor manufacturers, including SK Hynix and AMD, enhancing its market position [5][17]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 171 billion yuan, a 119% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% growth [2][27]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 2.7%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to declining DRAM prices [29]. Market Trends - The enterprise storage market is projected to reach a size of 87.8 billion USD by 2025, with significant growth driven by AI server demand [3][4]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in enterprise-level SSDs and DRAM, with a focus on meeting the growing demand for high-capacity, low-power solutions [4][31]. Strategic Initiatives - The establishment of the joint venture Shenzhen Haipu Storage with SK Hynix and Dapu Microelectronics aims to fill gaps in the enterprise DRAM market [1][4]. - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan to align the interests of management and employees with long-term growth objectives, indicating confidence in future performance [33][34].

Group 1 - The report concludes that the recent performance of low-priced stocks contradicts the "elimination of low-priced stocks" phenomenon, indicating that during periods of excess returns in low-priced stocks, their proportion tends to increase [1][2][3] - Historical data shows that since 2005, there have been four significant periods where low-priced stocks outperformed the broader market, with the proportion of low-priced stocks increasing at the end of these periods compared to the beginning [2][3][4] - The "elimination of low-priced stocks" phenomenon is typically associated with bull markets, while excess returns in low-priced stocks often occur during market downturns, reflecting a risk-averse strategy [1][3][4] Group 2 - The report highlights that during the four major bull markets since 2005, the proportion of low-priced stocks consistently declined, suggesting that this phenomenon can serve as a signal for bull markets [3][4][5] - The current trend shows that the proportion of low-priced stocks is still on a downward trajectory, indicating a potential continuation of the current market conditions rather than a shift to a bull market [3][4][5] - The recent focus on low-priced stocks may be more indicative of individual stock behavior rather than a sector-wide opportunity, as their performance relative to the broader market has been weak [3][4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the A-share market exhibited a volatile trend with a high trading volume, particularly in technology sectors such as humanoid robots and semiconductor industries [4][6] - The A-share market's equity risk premium (ERP) is currently at 2.65%, reflecting a slight decrease in market risk appetite [4][6][7] - The report indicates that the majority of sectors experienced declines, with coal, power equipment, and electronics showing the most significant gains, driven by macroeconomic and industry news [6][33][34]

Group 1 - The report highlights the growth opportunities in domestic computing power and storage driven by AI advancements [4][5][9] - The 5G infrastructure is expected to significantly contribute to economic growth, with a target of 4.52 million 5G base stations by the end of 2024, marking a net increase of 874,000 from the end of 2023 [7][10] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid development, with increasing demand for computing power and network traffic, indicating a positive growth trajectory for AIGC applications [9][10] Group 2 - The coal industry is showing signs of potential recovery, with supply constraints and inventory restructuring driving prices upward [29][30] - The C-REITs market is experiencing fluctuations, with a total market value of approximately 221.21 billion, and a focus on high-quality projects in resilient sectors [32] - The renewable energy sector, particularly wind power, is witnessing significant growth, with an increase of 20% in August, and a 23% rise in green certificate trading prices [38] Group 3 - The real estate market is facing challenges, with new home sales showing a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, but overall prices continuing to decline [40][41] - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to perform well following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, indicating a favorable outlook for this industry [43] - The textile and apparel sector is seeing robust growth in jewelry retail sales, while the sportswear segment is anticipated to outperform the broader apparel market [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.109 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.28%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -221 million yuan, down 2.59% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on both individual and group health check services, achieving a total of 9.55 million visits, with group check services contributing 67% to revenue [2] - AI-driven products have shown significant growth, with revenue from AI-related products reaching 140 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.36% [2] - The company has expanded its network to 566 branches, including 304 controlled health check branches, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2] - Cost control measures have begun to show results, with sales expenses decreasing by 8.75% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Financial Performance - The company expects revenues of 10.599 billion yuan, 11.498 billion yuan, and 12.800 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.0%, +8.5%, and +11.3% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 385 million yuan, 731 million yuan, and 950 million yuan for the same years, reflecting growth rates of +36.4%, +89.8%, and +30.1% [4] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.10 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.24 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 20 billion yuan, with a closing price of 5.11 yuan as of September 19, 2025 [6] - The company operates in the healthcare service industry, focusing on health management and AI integration to enhance operational efficiency [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing policy efforts to regulate energy consumption in the polysilicon sector, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of high-energy-consuming production capacities and optimize the supply chain [1][14][15] - The offshore wind power sector is projected to see significant growth, with an average annual installation capacity expected to exceed 20GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][18] - The hydrogen energy sector is witnessing substantial investment, with a notable project in Xinjiang valued at 44.5 billion yuan, focusing on green hydrogen production [3][20] - The report emphasizes the increasing interest in lithium iron phosphate batteries among international automakers, indicating a shift in the electric vehicle battery market [4][31][32] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation - **Photovoltaics**: The National Standardization Administration has released draft standards for polysilicon energy consumption, aiming for stricter energy limits that are below the current industry average [1][14][15] - **Wind Power & Grid**: The report discusses the environmental impact assessment for a major offshore wind project in Qingdao, indicating a growing demand for subsea cables and foundations [2][16][18] - **Hydrogen & Energy Storage**: A significant green hydrogen project has been initiated, with a focus on integrating solar energy for hydrogen production [3][20][21] 2. New Energy Vehicles - **Lithium Iron Phosphate Supply**: A supply agreement has been established between Longpan Technology and CATL for lithium iron phosphate cathodes, indicating a strategic move towards enhancing profitability through international sales [4][31][32] 3. Price Dynamics in the Photovoltaic Industry - The report provides insights into the price fluctuations of polysilicon and solar cells, reflecting the current market trends and potential impacts on the supply chain [34][35] 4. Weekly News Highlights - The report summarizes key developments in the new energy sector, including strategic partnerships and significant project announcements that could influence market dynamics [37][41][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, most convertible bond issuers saw revenue growth compared to the previous year, with profits showing some divergence. Amid the bullish equity market since April, investors should focus on low - price and equity - biased convertible bonds with excellent or improving performance and high - quality underlying stocks [1][3][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025H1 Convertible Bond Performance Overview - Revenue: By August 30, 61.7% of convertible bond issuers had year - on - year revenue growth, mainly in the (0, 30%] range. In Q2 2025, 77.5% had quarter - on - quarter revenue growth, also concentrated in the (0, 30%] range [8][9]. - Profit: 50.2% of convertible bond issuers had year - on - year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, with significant differences in performance. In Q2 2025, 53.3% had quarter - on - quarter growth, and the industries with the most issuers having a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of over 100% were electronics, building decoration, and power equipment [8][9]. 3.2 Industries and Convertible Bond Issues with Outstanding Performance 3.2.1 Year - on - Year Dimension - Industry: In terms of revenue, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non - bank finance, and electronics led; in terms of performance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, building materials, and media had the highest year - on - year growth rates. The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry achieved a significant turnaround in performance, with the net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 6799.93% year - on - year [15]. - Convertible Bond Issues: Huahong Convertible Bond, Wanqing Convertible Bond, Jingrui Convertible Bond, Jingrui Convertible Bond 2, and Muyuan Convertible Bond had the top four year - on - year growth rates in net profit attributable to shareholders in H1 2025 [23]. 3.2.2 Quarter - on - Quarter Dimension - Industry: In terms of revenue, communication, building materials, and non - bank finance led; in terms of performance, building materials, social services, and communication had the highest quarter - on - quarter growth rates in Q2 2025. Some industries such as building materials showed signs of bottoming out and reversing [26]. - Convertible Bond Issues: Jiaojian Convertible Bond, Hengfeng Convertible Bond, Huayang Convertible Bond, Aojia Convertible Bond, and Tianchuang Convertible Bond had the top five quarter - on - quarter growth rates in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 2025 [35]. 3.3 Industries and Convertible Bond Issues with Significant Performance Improvement 3.3.1 Industries and Issues with Year - on - Year Turnaround from Loss to Profit - Industries: Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, and electronics had the most issuers turning around from loss to profit year - on - year. Representative issues include Shanbo Convertible Bond, Tianchuang Convertible Bond, and Jingrui Convertible Bond [38]. 3.3.2 Industries and Issues with Quarter - on - Quarter Turnaround from Loss to Profit - Industries: Power equipment, computer, and construction industries had the most issuers turning around from loss to profit quarter - on - quarter. Representative issues include Jiaojian Convertible Bond, Jidong Convertible Bond, and Like Convertible Bond [45]. 3.3.3 Industries and Issues with Year - on - Year Reduction in Losses - Industries: Computer, power equipment, and building decoration industries had the most issuers with reduced losses year - on - year. Representative issues include Shuangliang Convertible Bond and Xinfu Convertible Bond [50]. 3.3.4 Industries and Issues with Quarter - on - Quarter Reduction in Losses - Industries: Power equipment, computer, and medicine industries had the most issuers with reduced losses quarter - on - quarter. Representative issues include Tong 22 Convertible Bond, Long 22 Convertible Bond, and Shanshi Convertible Bond [56]. 3.4 Convertible Bonds Worth Attention in the Bullish Equity Market 3.4.1 Convertible Bonds in the Excellent Performance Sector - Five convertible bonds, including Muyuan Convertible Bond, Daotong Convertible Bond, Zhongchong Convertible Bond 2, Weice Convertible Bond, and Anji Convertible Bond, were selected based on certain criteria [61]. 3.4.2 Convertible Bonds with Improving Performance - Four convertible bonds, including Liang 22 Convertible Bond, Site Convertible Bond, Chutian Convertible Bond, and Li'ang Convertible Bond, are recommended for continuous attention [63].