Supply - The average operating rate of high furnaces decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 81.6%, compared to a 0.1 percentage point decrease year-on-year[2] - The asphalt operating rate fell by 3.1 percentage points to 26.3%, marking a new low for recent years[2] - The cement dispatch rate decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 33.4%, also the lowest in recent years[2] Demand - New housing sales in 30 major cities increased by 8.0% month-on-month but decreased by 31.7% year-on-year, remaining at the lowest level in recent years[3] - Second-hand housing sales in 18 key cities rose by 20.8% month-on-month but fell by 14.9% year-on-year[3] - Passenger car sales averaged 60,000 units per day, down 1.6% month-on-month and 11.4% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced coverage and support of vehicle replacement subsidies[3] Prices - The average price of rebar increased by 1.6% month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to 4.7%[4] - The average price of pork decreased by 1.0% to approximately 17.9 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year decline of 24.0%[6] - The average price of cement fell by 0.8%, with a year-on-year decline expanding to 23.8%[4] Inventory - Steel inventory decreased by 6.0% month-on-month, while the year-on-year increase was 21.8%[7] - The average coal inventory at coastal power plants rose by 2.0% month-on-month but decreased by 5.4% year-on-year[7] - Asphalt inventory fell by 7.9% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%[7] Liquidity - The central bank implemented a net liquidity injection of 38.98 billion CNY through open market operations in the past half month[9] - The issuance of government bonds totaled 12,026 billion CNY, with a month-on-month decrease of 382.7 billion CNY[9] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 2.2 basis points to 1.844%[9]

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 01 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 2026 年铜价展望：宏观与供需平衡共振，牛市有望加速 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】PMI 连续 8 月处于线下的背后——20251130 【宏观】中央经济工作会议前瞻——20251129 【策略】12 月策略观点与金股推荐——20251130 【策略】一周市场表现与政策事件回顾（11.28 当周）——20251130 【金融工程】风格后续关注高低切——20251130 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值面分数略下降——20251129 【固定收益】年末还有抢跑行情吗？——20251130 【固定收益】月末资金平稳，存单继续大幅净偿还——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20251129 【固定收益】如何看待万科商讨展期对债市冲击——20251128 【海外】海外市场—关注资源品和 AI 应用——20251130 【有色金属】2026 年铜价展望：宏观与供需平衡共振，牛市有望加速— —20251130 【纺织服饰】申洲国际（02313.HK）-坚定长期主义，需求边际改善，龙 头优势凸显——20251130 ◼ 研究 ...

Macro Overview - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 is at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the expansion threshold for the eighth consecutive month[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the service sector[2] Economic Signals - Supply and demand indicators show a rebound, with the production index at 50.0%, indicating a return to the expansion threshold[3] - New export orders index increased by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, reflecting a temporary easing in the US-China trade situation, although it remains in contraction territory[4] Price and Inventory Trends - The price indices for raw materials and factory output rose by 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points respectively, suggesting an improvement in overall market prices[5] - Finished goods inventory decreased by 0.8 percentage points, while raw material inventory remained stable, likely due to slight production recovery[5] Employment and Sector Performance - Large enterprises saw a PMI decline of 0.6 percentage points, while small and medium enterprises experienced a rise of 2.0 percentage points, indicating varying levels of economic pressure across company sizes[5] - The service sector PMI fell to 49.5%, influenced by the end of holiday effects, while the construction sector PMI increased to 49.6%[5] Future Outlook - Economic pressures are expected to persist into the fourth quarter, with a focus on upcoming policy meetings in December that will shape 2026 strategies[6] - Short-term policies are anticipated to provide support but may not significantly boost growth, as maintaining a GDP growth rate of 4.4% in Q4 is crucial for achieving the annual target of "keeping growth above 5%"[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the space computing sector [5]. Core Insights - The emergence of space computing is expected to revolutionize data processing capabilities, with companies like Nvidia and Starcloud leading the charge by deploying AI servers in space [1][9]. - Elon Musk predicts that deploying large-scale AI systems in space will be more cost-effective than on Earth due to the availability of free solar energy and efficient cooling methods [2][14]. - Google's "Project Suncatcher" aims to utilize solar energy in space for scalable computing networks, with plans to launch prototype satellites by 2027 [3][18]. - China's launch of the "Body Computing Constellation" marks a significant milestone as the world's first interconnected space computing satellite constellation, expected to achieve a total computing power of 1000 Peta Operations Per Second (POPS) [4][22]. Summary by Sections Space Computing Developments - Nvidia's Starcloud-1 satellite, equipped with H100 GPUs, is set to operate in low Earth orbit, processing data from Earth observation satellites [1][9]. - Starcloud plans to expand its capabilities with the Starcloud-2 mission, which will include more powerful GPUs and aim for a 40 MW data center in space by the early 2030s [11]. Cost Efficiency and Energy Needs - Musk estimates that future AI computing needs could require between 200 to 300 GW of continuous power, highlighting the limitations of terrestrial energy sources [2][14]. - The report emphasizes that the transition to space-based data centers could alleviate the increasing energy and water demands of traditional data centers [10]. Industry Growth and Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that as AI computing demands rise and rocket launch costs decrease, significant growth in space computing is anticipated, recommending early investment in related companies such as Putian Technology and China Satellite [24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Increase" [4] Core Views - The trend of pig reduction continues, suggesting a strategic opportunity for participation in the sector [15][16] - The price of lean meat pigs as of November 28, 2025, is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from the previous month, indicating ongoing industry losses [15][18] - The average profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head from the previous month, while the profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [15][23] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.9 million, and further production capacity reduction is expected due to policy and low prices [15][16] - The mushroom sector shows a sustained price rebound for enoki mushrooms, with strong performance expected from key companies [16] - The seed industry is seeing a clear trend of variety replacement, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales, indicating potential growth for related companies [16] - In poultry farming, seasonal price elasticity opportunities are noted for yellow feathered chickens, while white feathered chickens are affected by avian influenza in Europe [17] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The lean meat pig price is 11.09 CNY/kg, down 9.1% from last month [18] - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.83 CNY/kg, down 1.1% [18] - The profit for self-breeding pigs is -147.99 CNY/head, a decrease of 58.66 CNY/head [23] - The profit for purchased piglets is -248.82 CNY/head, down 69.1 CNY/head [23] Mushroom Sector - Enoki mushroom prices remain strong, confirming a sustained price rebound [16] - The release period for Cordyceps sinensis as a key new product is approaching, with strong performance expected [16] Seed Industry - A clear trend of variety replacement in corn is noted, with transgenic varieties entering commercial sales [16] - Companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech are highlighted for potential growth [16] Poultry Farming - The price of meat chicken chicks is 3.47 CNY/chick, down 3.1% from last month [28] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.19 CNY/kg, up 1.4% [32] - The average price of chicken products is 8.95 CNY/kg, up 0.6% [32] Agricultural Products - Domestic corn prices increased to 2329.8 CNY/ton, up 4.0% [44] - Domestic wheat prices rose to 2507.28 CNY/ton, up 0.7% [46] - Domestic soybean prices increased to 4014.74 CNY/ton, up 0.4% [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report analyzes the company LeShuShi, a leading player in the African hygiene products sector, benefiting from high growth opportunities in emerging markets [1] - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with projected revenue increasing from 320 million to 454 million in 2024, representing a CAGR of 19% from 2022 to 2024 [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 18 million to 98 million, with an impressive CAGR of 130% during the same period [1] - The report highlights the company's strategic fundraising plan, aiming to raise 2.141 billion HKD for capacity expansion, marketing, strategic acquisitions, and CRM system upgrades [1] Revenue and Profit Structure - In 2024, the revenue breakdown includes baby diapers (340 million), sanitary napkins (80 million), baby pants (20 million), and wet wipes (10 million), with respective market shares of 75%, 17%, 5%, and 3% [2] - The gross profit for these products is projected at 117 million for diapers, 30 million for napkins, 6 million for pants, and 8 million for wipes, with gross margins of 34%, 38%, 28%, and 52% respectively [2] Market Potential and Competitive Landscape - The report indicates a robust growth trajectory for the hygiene products market in emerging regions, with the African market expected to grow from 4.1 billion to 5.6 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 7.9% [3] - The company holds a leading market share in Africa, with a 20.3% share in baby diapers and a 15.6% share in sanitary napkins, ranking first in both categories [3] Competitive Advantages - The company has a well-established brand matrix and a diverse product SKU range, enhancing its market appeal [4] - It operates eight production facilities across Africa, with a total designed annual capacity of 63 billion diapers, 35 billion pants, 29 billion sanitary napkins, and 90 billion wet wipes [4] - The management team possesses extensive experience in emerging markets, with a strong local talent pool contributing to operational success [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the bond market will still strengthen seasonally in December this year, and although the "front - running" rhythm will be later, it will still occur. As short - term constraints such as profit - taking and indicator pressures ease, allocative institutions will gradually increase their bond allocations, and it is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will drop to around 1.7% (new bonds) by the end of the year [5][22]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Bond Market Adjustment This Week - This week, the bond market adjusted again. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose by 2.5bps and 2.7bps to 1.84% and 2.19% respectively. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bonds rose by 5.5bps and 3.2bps respectively. The yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit rose slightly by 0.5bps to 1.64% [1][8]. - The adjustment is due to institutional behavior changes. Banks face year - end indicator pressures and profit - taking needs, resulting in insufficient allocation power. Meanwhile, the reform of public fund fees has led to increased short - term selling pressure from passive redemptions of public funds, and some trading institutions such as securities firms have boosted the market trend [1][8]. Seasonal Strengthening of the Bond Market in December in Previous Years - In the past five years, the bond market in December has generally strengthened. From 2020 to 2024, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined in December, with an average decline of 14.0bps. In 2024, the decline was the largest at 34.5bps. Excluding 2024, the average decline from 2020 - 2023 was 8.9bps. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield also declined significantly in December, with an average decline of 18.2bps from 2020 - 2024 [8]. - The front - running effect occurred not only in bull markets (e.g., the end of 2021 and 2024) but also in bear markets (e.g., the end of 2020 and 2022). In bull markets, the yield decline started earlier. In 2024, the yield started to decline significantly in the last week of November, while in 2021 and 2023, it started around early December. In bear markets (2020 and 2022), the decline started in mid - December [8]. Reasons for the Weak and Volatile Bond Market in the Fourth Quarter - Banks have been continuously reducing their long - bond holdings since October due to indicator pressures (including interest - rate sensitivity and liquidity indicators) and profit - taking needs, with large banks facing the most significant pressure. These factors, combined with the impact of public fund fee reform, have led to the phased redemption of public funds by banks and wealth management products, resulting in selling pressure on public funds and constraining the bond market [2][12]. Easing of Current Pressures - Bank indicator pressures and profit - taking needs are more concentrated in the middle of the quarter, especially in the year - end quarter. Near the end of the quarter or year, these pressures tend to ease, and banks will have new allocation space at the beginning of a new year or quarter. The significant decline in the net financing volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit in the past two weeks indicates that the indicator pressures of joint - stock banks may have started to ease, and allocation demand will gradually recover [3][12]. - The impact of public fund fee reform has been digested to a large extent. The scale of public bond funds has significantly shrunk, decreasing by 51.27 billion shares from the end of June to October, nearly a 10% reduction. If the new regulations provide a sufficient transition period, the short - term impact may be limited [3][15]. Reasons for Allocative Institutions to Increase Bond Allocation - From a quantitative perspective, allocative institutions face the pressure of rising liability growth but insufficient asset supply. Banks are experiencing rising deposit growth and falling loan growth. Near the end of the year, if financial institutions expect low financing demand in the first quarter of next year, they may increase bond allocation in advance. The weak fundamental data in November (both manufacturing and service PMI are below the boom - bust line) indicates that corporate financing demand may be suppressed, and there is a possibility of a year - on - year decrease in credit and social financing in the first quarter of next year. At the same time, due to reduced residential housing purchases, residents' savings will accumulate more in low - risk assets, increasing the possibility of an asset shortage [4][18]. - From a price perspective, bond yields are more cost - effective. The spread between the same - term mortgage loan and the 30 - year Treasury bond in the third quarter of this year was 81bps, the lowest since mid - 2017, indicating that bonds are more cost - effective than loans and other assets [4][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [5]. Core Views - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic breakthrough in silver prices due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts and inventory depletion, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][36]. - The copper industry is seeing a deepening of the anti-involution trend in smelting, with a consensus reached among CSPT members to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% by 2026 [2]. - The lithium market is characterized by mixed factors, with prices fluctuating and strong demand expectations, particularly in energy storage [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The market is betting on a 12% interest rate cut in December, with the probability rising from 71% to 86.4% [1]. - Silver inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped to 559 tons by November 30, down 633 tons from October 8, leading to a risk of short squeeze [1][36]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory decreased by 0.8 thousand tons, with Chinese inventory down by 3.1 thousand tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: New production capacity in Xinjiang is coming online, while demand remains stable despite high prices [2]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is experiencing a rebound after a period of decline, with supply remaining relatively loose [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 3.5% to 96,000 yuan/ton, with production slightly down by 1% [3]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are high due to delays in export approvals from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with domestic prices for electrolytic cobalt rising to 403,000 yuan/ton [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others are highlighted as key investment opportunities in the precious metals sector [1][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the REITs sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [6][7]. Core Insights - The initiation of the commercial real estate REITs pilot program by the China Securities Regulatory Commission marks a significant development, suggesting an expansion of public REITs' underlying assets and a new phase for the REITs market in China [1][11]. - The overall performance of the C-REITs market has shown a slight decline, with the CSI REITs closing index down by 0.14% to 809.1 points as of November 28, 2025, while the full return index decreased by 0.08% to 1040.3 points [2][12]. - The total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 219.44 billion yuan, with an average market value of about 2.8 billion yuan per REIT [3][14]. Summary by Sections REITs Events - On November 28, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission publicly solicited opinions on the draft announcement for the commercial real estate REITs pilot program, aimed at enhancing the quality of the REITs market and supporting a new model for real estate development [1][11]. REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs full return index has increased by 7.49% year-to-date, while the closing index has risen by 2.47% [2][12]. REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs has experienced a general pullback, with 35 REITs rising and 41 falling during the week, resulting in an average weekly decline of 0.2% [3][14]. - The data center and affordable housing sectors performed well, while industrial parks and ecological environmental sectors saw declines [3][14]. REITs Trading Activity - The affordable housing sector exhibited the highest trading activity, with an average daily trading volume of 1.681 million shares and a turnover rate of 0.6% [4][17]. REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being Huaxia China Communications REIT at 9.5%, Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 9.4%, and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT at 8.7% [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment strategies: 1. Emphasizing policy-driven themes and quality undervalued projects with recovery potential [6]. 2. Recognizing the market's acknowledgment of the dividend attributes of weak-cycle assets, while considering timing based on asset resilience and market prices [6]. 3. Monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances, particularly those with ample asset reserves and quality projects [6].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 电力设备 发改委治理价格无序竞争，龙蟠科技签订 130 万吨铁锂订单 光伏：国家发改委召开价格无序竞争座谈会，制定成本认定标准。11 月 24 日， 国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争 成本认定标准等相关工作。会议指出，目前部分行业价格无序竞争问题仍然突出， 一些企业对规范价格竞争行为的要求落实不到位，甚至依然存在扰乱市场价格秩 序的行为。国家发展改革委将会同有关部门持续推进相关工作，治理企业价格无 序竞争，维护良好市场价格秩序，助力高质量发展。这有助于光伏产业链各环节价 格回归理性，行业实现可持续发展。核心关注三大方向：1）供给侧改革下的产业 链涨价机会，核心关注通威股份、隆基绿能、晶澳科技、晶科能源、天合光能等； 2）新技术背景下带来的中长期成长性机会，核心关注迈为股份、爱旭股份、聚和 材料等；3）钙钛矿 GW 级布局带来的产业化机会，核心关注金晶科技、万润股份、 捷佳伟创、帝尔激光、京山轻机、德龙激光、曼恩斯特等。 风电&电网：丹麦 2.8GW 海上风电项目启动招标，青桂直流、南通 ...